Awaiting a ground operation. Kaczynskis party won the elections, but lost its place in the government. A story from poland. Tensions have been rising in the middle east all week. Emotions are mixed up. In sympathy israel, against the backdrop of the barbaric cruelty of hamas , quickly faded into the shadow of retaliatory actions, a complete blockade of gaza and it. Where hundreds of people died , the visit of the us president was blurred, his meeting with arab leaders fell through, the result of the negotiations in israel was bidens statement that the hospital was hit by another team, that is, not the israelis. The state department called an International Investigation into the incident inappropriate. Biden has a rather outdated idea of how the israeli narrative is perceived. Which he stated may have been something significant behind closed doors, but if all that the us president has achieved is not a specific promise to send 20 trucks with humanitarian aid into gas, a clerk from the state department would be enough for this; in the head of state this is simply insulting. The idf is formed by conscription and consists of three types of armed forces ground, air force and naval forces. Its total number in peacetime is about 177,000 people. Both men and women are required to serve in the army. The mobilization reserve in case of war is about half a million. And full mobilization more than 3 million people. Thanks to this, the israeli army wins. In all arabisraeli wars, starting with the war of independence in 4849. The arab armies were never able to achieve even a two toone advantage on the battlefield. For economic reasons, they could not afford to conscript so many people into the army. Now, according to the Global Firepower portal, among the armies of the world, tsahal occupies eighteenth position. For comparison, the army of egypt is in fourteenth place, and iran is in 17th place. Under the terms of the campdeved Peace Agreements with egypt, signed in 1978, israel receives 3. 5 billion annually and free of charge from the United States for military needs. Thus, in less than half a century, israel received more than 150 billion. American equipment and weapons were purchased with it, part of the money went to its own military development and weapons production. The backbone of the armored forces. Consists of merkava tanks designed in israel, about half a thousand vehicles. There are also obsolete american m60 british centurion. The israeli army has more than 10,000 armored personnel carriers and 5,500 artillery pieces of various systems. The air force has more than 200 older american f15 and f16 fighters, as well as the newest f35. Helicopters and cobras and numerous ones. Drones, there are powerful air Defense Systems, American Patriot complexes, joint with the us heads or pr o3, and our own very Effective Development of the iron dome. Experts believe tal aviv could have up to 200 Nuclear Warheads mounted on erichon missiles with a range of up to 6,500 km, which could be launched from israeli submarines dolphin purchased from germany. Israel itself. Neither confirms nor denies the presence of weapons of mass destruction. Everyone froze in anticipation of an Israeli Ground operation. Not only the fate of gaza depends on its scale and nature, but also how much the conflict will grow, whether it will turn into a regionwide war, in particular, is there a risk of iran, israels main antagonist, being drawn into it . Iran seeks regional dominance, it operates through a network of iranlinked shiite organizations such as hezbollah or proiranian groups in syria, where tehrans position is strengthening. The qussites in yemen and shiite militias in iraq, iran has long established ties with hamas with representatives in lebanon. And Islamic Jihad is virtually completely under the control of iran. Iran is actively working inside israel with palestinians in the west bank with arab israelis. Iran has openly announced that its goal is that by 2040 there will be no state of israel. This is actually unprecedented when one state declares this way. What iran claims about destiny is a reminder of its irresponsible behavior, and not what they want to attribute to us, they need such interpretations for their own purposes, the same reproaches can be returned back to israel, they openly interfere in the internal affairs of iran, seek to undermine the country, change the regime. Irans position is that if israel pursues a policy like it is now in gas, for example. Then he will face insoluble problems that will destroy the state itself. The israeli army first entered lebanon in march 1978, when the civil war was in full swing there. On south the country was completely ruled by the militants of the palestine liberation organization, yasser arafat, who planned to carry out terrorist attacks on israeli territory. In 6 days, the israeli army reached the river, occupied the cities of tire and saida, then left , leaving control over them to its ally , the army of lebanon, led by the former major of the lebanese army, saad haddad. In june 1982, the israeli army again invaded lebanon. The operation received the name peace of galilee and turned into largescale military operations with heavy street fighting, in as a result of which beirut was captured. Palestinians, led by yasser arafat, evacuated to tunisia, and israeli troops remained in southern lebanon until 2000. These events were called the first lebanon war. On june 25, 2006, on the border with gaza , two soldiers were killed and israeli corporal gillad shalit was kidnapped as a result of a palestinian attack on an israeli army post in the area of the kibbutz, kerem shalom. To free him, israel launched operation summer rains, which lasted. From june to november, it involved 3,000 israeli soldiers, they were opposed by about 9,000 militants. During the hostilities , about 400 palestinians were killed. The israeli side lost five soldiers. Shalit was released only in 2011, in exchange for 1,000 palestinian prisoners. In parallel with the gas operation, the second lebanese war began in july 2006. Hezbollah militants attacked an israeli patrol. Seized the bodies of two soldiers, this was an attempt to repeat the kidnapping of an israeli soldier, as was the case with shalit, in response, israel launched a military operation worthy retribution. The strikes targeted not only hezbollah militants and rocket launchers who bombed northern israel, but also lebanese infrastructure, including residential areas of beirut. After 34 days, the israeli army reached the litani river and ceased hostilities. The second lebanon war would have killed 170 israelis, more than 700 militants, and approximately 1,200 lebanese police, military, and civilians. In december 2008, january 2009, by decision of Prime Minister ehud olmert , one of the largest operations in gas sector cast lead. It began after more than 80 rockets and mortar shells were fired at israel from gas. Three regulars entered the gas. Brigades and more than 10,000 reservists. They were opposed by 15,000 hamas fighters. According to the un, during 3 weeks of fighting in the gaza strip, about half a thousand palestinians were killed, half of whom were civilians. About 4,000 houses in gaza were completely destroyed, and 10 soldiers were killed on the israeli side. During the operation, it was not possible to achieve a complete cessation of rocket attacks from side of palestinian militants, but their intensity has decreased significantly. The bloodiest military operation was the line of defense or the indestructible rock, carried out in julyaugust 2014. As before, its goal was declared to be the destruction of hamas infrastructure. Israel deployed large forces of infantry, engineering troops, tank units, and an air force of over 82,000 reservists. They were opposed by up to 40,000 hamas fighters. During the fighting , more than 2,000 people were killed on the palestinian side, including more than 500 children. About 18,000 houses were destroyed in the gas. And the economic losses of the sector were estimated at 6 billion, with 67 soldiers killed on the israeli side, these were the Largest Military losses since the second lebanon war in 2006. During the military operation, the radicals fired more than 4,500 rockets at israel, but most of them fell in uninhabited areas. However, for now we are observers. Region , they see no signs of an impending interstate conflict, the mood in iran is not in favor of a direct conflict, i dont think that there are such prospects, because the parties believe that they can achieve goals without direct involvement, iran is not in an offensive position , on the contrary, it is trying to stop the war, because there is a risk of uncontrollable developments for everyone, any war in the region is multilayered, everything is intertwined, tehran received signal. Of a regional conflict, they understand that they will not win a war with iran and do not strive for such a scenario. The likelihood of iran entering the war is as minimal as it can be, us support for israel and europe makes it clear to iran the war will not be with israel, but with us. Containment works. The american presence is the main obstacle for tehran. As for the groups. For example, the largest player of this type behaves with restraint, they respect the informally agreed upon framework, respond proportionately, tit for tat, but nothing more , not overlapping, both sides perceive the signals, and this is an example of clearly calculated actions and reactions. In 2013 , hezbollah intervened in syrian events and selfpreservation because there was. A threat supply routes within the axis of resistance, hezbollah, syria, iran. The fall of the assad regime would mean a major blow to hezbollah. Now, the destruction of hamas through a complete blockade of gas will become something of a laboratory for israel. If the experiment is successful, it will be reproduced on hisbol. Such a risk may force one to take preventive steps, perhaps not a largescale escalation, but an intensification of hostilities. Despite the almost twentyyear blockade , weapons regularly enter the gas sector through tunnels. The city of rafah is located on the border with egypt. In fact, it is divided into two parts palestinian and egyptian. The entrance to the dungeon is not visible. It is dug right in a residential building, and then a tunnel is made that connects the two houses. For gas smugglers , this is big business. These underground arteries carry more than just. Weapons, but consumer goods. Sometimes the tunnels are so large that stolen cars are transported through them in gas. In 2014, the Egyptian Government demolished the egyptian part of the city of rafah, but this did not help. Smugglers began to extend their tunnels, sometimes by several kilometers. In addition to underground construction , a Rocket Program was actively developing in gas. Hamas has few opportunities to successfully fight the israeli army. The most effective method turned out to be makeshift installations for launching multiple launch rocket systems. At first these were chinese and soviet charges obtained in different ways. But it quickly became clear that it was more convenient to produce them locally, and so the kassam missiles appeared. They were named after the islamic cleric from iddin alqassam, who fought against the British Occupation and was killed in a raid, and his name became a symbol of samop. Donations for intifada participants. As the range of supplies increased , the effectiveness and accuracy of the outfits began to increase, and most importantly , the firing range increased. Even at the beginning of the 2000s, they reached a maximum of the nearest city exit, 3 km from the wall, but now the alkutz brigade, the military wing of hamas , is even shelling tel aviv and jerusalem. More importantly, the number of launches has increased. At first it was. Hundreds, and now counting by thousands. The israeli iron dome air Defense System is overloaded and does not have time to shoot down all these shells. Incommensurable. Such protection each launch of an iron dome is 30400 dollars, one hail is a maximum of 1,500 dollars, and kossam is even less. Recently, missile launches have been supplemented by strikes from zuaari loitering munitions and kamikaze sayad drones. The first is named after the tunisian designer of hamas, who was eliminated by an air strike, the second, probably iranianmade, is more difficult targets to intercept. There is also a badr3 missile. According to some sources, it is made in iran, according to others, it is made directly in gas. But another thing is important it can deliver up to 350 kg of explosives at a distance of 160 km to explode in the air. Judging by the footage distributed by hamas, they have their own air defense. This is the iranian antiaircraft complex motobar 1. 3 for remote use. How effective it is is not yet clear, but it is obvious that the new tactics of hamas fighters work well in combination with surprise. Small groups of militants operated on israeli territory, using paragliders, motorcycles and any available captured transport, striking and retreating. It is worth noting the large number of such groups and the coherence of their actions. For jordan and egypt , everything that is happening poses an existential threat, and the reason for this is israel and its actions during this war, and the big question is how relations with it can generally be restored in the future, when we established relations with israel there were great hopes. Relationship for outside of individual specific Security Issues were in their infancy. From the point of view of the jordanian government, the israeli authorities have been engaged in one thing in recent years, destroying opportunities for resolving the palestinian issue. Israel has never complied with its obligations and never has. Was aimed at finding sustainable solutions. In the arab world, the conflict of 7 years is called the october war. In israel and in western historiography, it is even more often called the yom kippur war, because egypt and syria attacked israel on october 6 holy jewish holiday iyom kippur, a day of fasting and repentance. It differs in that everything. Closed and literally nothing works, shops, institutions, public transport does not operate and planes do not even fly. The airspace is completely blocked. In the seventythird year, when israel froze, the Egyptian Army successfully crossed the soet canal, captured two bridgeheads on the eastern bank, up to 15 km deep, on the syrian front, arab troops advanced 15 km deep into the dutch heights. Nowadays already known. That the israeli authorities knew about the attack, it is believed that in the previous sixday war israel reacted preemptively to the threat, but the egyptians and syrians did not think of attacking, the mobilization in the area of the soet canal only created the appearance of a threat, and the United States knew about this, israel still decided to attack first and didnt even warn washington about it. In a matter of days, the sinai peninsula, the gas sector, and the western bank of the river were captured. East jerusalem and syrian dutch heights. The us silently supported israel, but put conditions if he acts first again, washington will refuse support. As a result, in the seventythird year, even knowing about the attack, the israelis could not do anything, although the arabs calculation of an attack on a religious holiday did not come true. On the contrary, thanks to the empty roads, the reservists quickly found themselves in the army. And the first strike of the egyptians was successful; counterattacking the bridgeheads, the israelis suffered heavy losses, more than 200 tanks. The egyptians were the first to use soviet malyutka antitank missiles for this purpose. But the promise was carried out, and washington came to the rescue. During the month of operation nickelgras , 25,000 tons of military personnel were transferred across the air bridge, which was organized by the then ultramodern s5 galaxy aircraft. Cargo, the first plane brought 155 mm artillery shells, which the israelis had just run out of, although american lending was not at all a key condition for victory. If you believe american research, the balance of forces in the arabisraeli conflicts barely reached a ratio of one to two, that is, against one israeli, the arabs could not send even two soldiers. The population of arab countries was larger, but they could not afford a Significant Army due to poverty. However, the conflict of 7 years showed that the arabs were close to victory, and if they set a goal, they could achieve a result. Especially if israel doesnt start first. That is why the yom kippur war ended with the resignation of defense minister moshe dayan and the end of the career of Prime Minister golde meyer. It lasted only 18 days, but was accompanied by unprecedented military and political activity. Chairman secretly visited cairo the council of ministers of the ussr alexey kosygin, and moscow the us secretary of state, henry kissinger. It was probably then that the text was agreed upon. Un council resolution, which demanded an end to the war. For their part, arab countries imposed an embargo on oil supplies to those states that supported israel. This ultimately led to the biggest oil crisis of 73 and caused a long recession in the world economy. And 6 years later, israel signed a Peace Agreement with egypt. The middle east has been created. Century by external powers, under the influence of the collapse of empires, holocaust, decolonization and the cold war are becoming a thing of the past, while all the ponertians live with the old schemes, but only because no one can imagine anything else, but they will have to. The conflict in palestine has sparkled with passions from time immemorial, the current explosion of hatred, despair, anger is reaching the epic level to discuss some of its aspects, we have invited our dear guest, leonid rudolfovich syukiyanin, the best domestic specialist in islamic law, nech, hello, i greet you, some things are happening terrible things, in a purely human way, even if not take politics, in islam is there any more or less established idea of what retribution is in a legal sense, in a moral sense, and is there. An understanding of the proportionality of this retribution . Yes, there is such a concept, it is quite clearly fixed, if we turn to the sharia, that is, to the holy quran, to the holy book of islam, as well as to the traditions that convey the sayings or describe the actions of the Prophet Muhammad, then we will find many fairly clearly formulated provisions, majority karonic injunctions concern allah, who punishes or punishes. Those who commit sin or lead people astray from the path outlined by him, but if the situation is addressed to people, addressed to people, they are precisely based on the fact that in the case of encroachment on life , honor or dignity of people, responsibility follows, punishment follows, punishment follows, although it is stipulated by a large number of conditions, but here is one of the key provisions of the koran, i will quote it in my own words, if someone attacks you, commits an act against you aggression, then respond to him with the same act of aggression in exactly the same way as he did against you, in this situation two principles are highlighted firstly, committing some kind of violence, using force against the offender is possible only if you yourself first became subject to such violence, that is, in response to violence this is a very important provision, that is , as a measure of, lets say, defense, and secondly, there is an element of proportionality, please note, in the same way as you were attacked, in the same way, is interpreted as proportionality, in this regard, yes, i answer your question absolutely in the affirmative, well, that is, from the point of view, if we take todays event, from the point of view of hamas. The palestinians, they exclusively answer, of course, if we take which this is a historical period, those historical causes of this conflict, those phenomena that existed at the time of the creation of the israeli state, and even before that, the palestinians view this as violence that was used against the Palestinian People by those first uh, well, lets say. So organizations or groups of jews, supported by a number of countries, primarily great britain, who came to these territories and not just bought the lands, but simply drove them away. They were expelled from their own lands and thus they feel offended, disadvantaged, those who have suffered some kind of damage, and this gives them reason to believe that they can at any moment. Answer, well, of course, the question arises there , is forgiveness possible, are other methods, other forms of answer possible, but this is the next question, here the next question is about forgiveness, it is provided for in islam, yes, of course, if we look at the position of the koran, then even yesterday i decided, in connection with these events, to return to this problem, to address it, it turns out that more than ten suras of the koran contain approximately 15 verses of verses that talk about forgiveness, about forgiveness, moreover, like any other heavenly religion, so islam aims people first of all at the fact that they must forgive, offenders must be forgiven, this is always it is said that, for example, in the case of murder or infliction of bodily harm , which is recommended by sharia, you can respond in the same way, seek punishment according to the teleon principle, but not apply this punishment yourself, through a court decision. Secondly, you can replace the Death Penalty in case of murder, or inflicting punishment on the pataleon in case of causing bodily harm, you can replace it with receiving a monetary ransom, or forgiveness, and it is written in the koran that it is best, of course, to forgive, to forgive, it is clear that this is such a divine. The divine order is addressed to people, but we ourselves understand that human nature is such that, firstly, it is not easy to forgive yourself, and secondly, how it will be perceived by the people around you, by the community where you live, most often it is perceived, unfortunately, not as an act of mercy , but as an indicator of weakness, that you have given up, but the Prophet Muhammad said that the strongest person, you know, is the one who controls himself in a state of anger, the one who can subdue himself, sort of, suppress his anger, but this is again an ideal, a religious ideal, people cannot always follow it, although naturally, when forgiving, i can reproduce a whole series of provisions of the koran, which says that even if you are offended, suffered damage, became a victim of aggression, then it is better to forgive. To their offenders, this certainly exists, and there are many such instructions, well, uh, an ideal case, an ideal picture, of course, we are dealing with reality, and specifically with the reality of such a phenomenon as political islam, which has appeared, has become, in any case, became known to the average person there at the end of the 20th century, now theyve forgotten about it a little, it seems, but of course it hasnt gone away , in political islam, probably, like in any political ideology, all the original attitudes, lets say, become sharpened and primitivized, that is, this, this is what they declare, that they are guided by the koran, but in reality these are probably some other motivations too, of course, everything is so, the fact is that muslims live in a rather complex and sometimes contradictory system of social rules that they follow, these are not only caronic instructions and in general. Islamic prescriptions, but these are local traditions and customs. Moreover, ethnographers and historians have well shown that if in theory, sharia allows any custom that does not contradict it, then in real life the relationship between them is exactly the opposite, custom, adat prevails, and it allows what seems true to it from sharia, therefore, most often follows, follows from the date, and adat, that is, custom, of course stands on principle, the most striking example that everyone knows is the socalled blood revenge, blood feud is such a widespread custom, which, by the way, islam has been fighting hard for centuries, but cannot defeat it, cannot defeat it, there were even countries where there were special laws on the prosecution of those who commit acts of blood feud
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