Hello and welcome to cross talk where all things are considered im Peter Lavelle forced regime change playbook and why it is not and will not work and it was also the no bomb we saw go benefits from this very strange episode. To discuss this im joined by my guest Marcus Papadopoulos in london hes editor of politics 1st magazine and in budapest we cross to jordan samuel he is author of bombs for peace natos humanitarian war and yugoslavia are across up rules in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want and i always appreciate it ok let me start with georgia georgia lets start with the b. Everest story because the pira story looks like its kind of morphing into the venezuelan story of the baltics ok because we have this pretend or recognize from. From lithuania i think it is this woman that they can all sky that she is the president in exile right now are they pulling a white go here because i seriously doubt this would be happening in my own peo had made a phone call go ahead george well they are trying to pull away though but of course the quite. Turned out to be a complete fiasco. And. Its clear that the Trump Administration isnt terribly happy with the policy that it got stuck with thanks to the pressure from former National Security advisor john bolton so i have my doubts that they go to political i go over this. Because if youre going to give them. Is notable for all the absence of pressure from the United States and i say that in actually taking a rather reckless an approach towards this and without pressure from the americans. I dont think this is going to go very far and i think its so theres already indications that look at shank 0 feels very confident of himself and hes being his usual difficult self with with the russians feeling rather confident that the e. C. At the say you know mark is a i tend to agree with george and on top of it a look at Chiang Khamenei made it very public particularly to 2 Russian Television stations that he isnt least rhetorically officially open to some kind of transition though within the bounds of russian law thats that indicates to me that hes learned the lesson that he can stay but he has to start thinking of an exit here what are your thoughts marcus lets see. How something over the last few weeks what we have to say here about very soon is an attempt by the west to be a serious for the west coast resolution v. S. E. Ease and his hands his crew against some of its presence and a use in the school is serious and he so all must say of course they were goes back to you know many who is also sort of one color resolutions georgists or falsehood and free ukraines who files on them for his songs he falls under 5 and most recently over. Oh ukraines few shells and full tank but these tendencies crew a better choice was always going to fail why because the well meaning were sure saved the belorussian population dot ansels as possible the russian well they see themselves as possibly lawson family secondly. We should quit more accurately. Ease the facts or province of the Russian Federation and we have seen that scene in recent times because the Russian Ministry in tandem with about russias military has announced see you loose disposes wish polands ukraine and about 6 states to prevent infiltrates is from coming in for a necessary so on those countries and also Russian Special services working alongside Russian Special services have now identified its asian profile consumers the west in most noticeably of course means now the real question is or should he not will see isnt always going to what was he going to succeed and no what it has now done it is shredded for and russias position over lucas shankar because how did not change really interesting because then the unions say its all for gosh i. Wish rules which was formulated between yatsenyuk look a stranger in the late 1990 s. Would have come into being by now but look as schenker has so we get a sense christian came to the helm and russia to this location who wants to be a presence of the union sites now that looks shanker has remarkably and our president turned to the person for assistance in france and i approve that now he is it shows. Mary leverage so the kremlin to exercise unfair question or so i actually believe piece that innocent person place the west has actually placed an appearance will know what i believe the material i say shouldnt sooner go off and lay some of the union sites well george but thats the fly in the ointment here i mean and its one of the things that i get very frustrated with looking at the west your narrative because its not about lucas its about the place that we know is be a ruse be all russia and its relationship with russia and as marcus quite correctly and in great detail discuss this is a this is a single state ok at this point here and the problem has been is that its been looked at shank unwilling to implement every single phase in stage of that that he signed up to and so could this is the this is the unreported narrative that whats going on in india rules because its it is kind of a lucas shango problem but for very Different Reasons go ahead yes thats right. Theyre the policy before the election which was a day by the e. U. And the United States was to try to foster a snotty division between. Belarus and russia as possible and that made a certain amount of geo strategic sense whatever it is makes life difficult for the russians nato the United States regards as a good thing to do as many headaches thats possible but by overplaying their hand in belarus as much as quite rightly point out. They have now strengthened the the bond between russia and belarus and youre getting the impression that out that the europeans are sensing the food supply. And have trying to draw back because i do think its striking that. The whole of this propaganda to have. You come off and having all these attractive women around and over the propaganda to try to get oh this is the belarus that we want to recognize this is a legitimate government of belarus thats failed thats thats gone nowhere so it looks to me like we may be heading to was the preelection policy of well lets try to foster division but i think thats extremely unlikely to fail i think that that train that left the station speaking about division and mean if you look at the reaction of the European Union Member States that they hold quite go scenario is its really been given a Cold Shoulder because you know were not going to go through this again i think we also have to point out is that the European Union as a whole has ukraine i mean look at what the resources and. And time they put into ukraine and well they kind of got a you know a milk toast version of what they wanted ok because. The fundamental reforms that ukraine needs is not happening right now and again just the the billions and billions of euros that went nowhere i personally think and get so marcus on was how much do you think that plays into this kind of it. Give me some part of the europeans about this regime change playbook. Well here again is huge is nationally i was rifle to the United States in economic terms but also malaysia the European Union is a strategic friends and i so you know i have to say as indeed as we can science that russians and excess im sure to some ounce will influence the e. U. Policy by can i use science you know its you found someone for saying whether america place sanctions on the Russian Federation because of the crisis in ukraine which incidentally america was also. For the European Union. By germany was very apprehensive about wanting to place sanctions on the last they did resist but in the end of the year being union it caved into the pressure to phone the United States and i think if we fast forward to 20 twentieths what weve seen in recent times. Yes the European Union has says he player go in that its simply the case that poland in the 06 states which are very dangerous countries for russian National Security actually facilitates its. Tenets its career in the country but i think olson italy the hand washington is responsible for what we have seen in belarus and i think that piece of the americans are actually emboldened by this high up in ukraine because yes ross analysis the money cant be cold its ukraine and loss i mean ukraine is one of the most corrupt countries in the us and it has been ever since it came independence in late 99 but nonetheless ukraine as we talk now is integrating if the west has ukraine is the greatest. Policy challenge to the kremlin so i think the americans have the same bones and by their success in ukraine they obviously did not do their homework so sufficient enough to understand that belarus is not you try and have better risk as i said the facts are a province of the Russian Federation or you can put it is a russian protectorates you know chart market that washington doesnt do its own mortgage they thats kind of an understatement because they screw up every step of the way here i think youre right marcus i mean you know washington is in bold but i think in bold in the sense that it think way to create a quagmire ok where 8 if you know russia has to take the burden here if its not a success and the nominal way its like oh. Oh he screwed up that neighborhood it makes the neighborhood stable thats a victory for us which is a very cynical Foreign Policy go ahead george yes now that youve hit the nail on the head that peter thats exactly what the american think its. The weight goes in belarus the americans say well its a tryout because its a headache for the europeans because its right there on the border its a headache for the russians. And its a left right to say yeah ok you know whats the solution more america because all they say shows that the europeans are unable to sort out their own problems so he was and its the same you know you see the same scenario played out in iraq and syria and libya and say ok its the oh hey not oust. But what is do is they then you if you need all these cases you capture elites in specific countries ok and they even poured it within their own in their own country and then within the union youre ok gentlemen to jump in here were going to go to a short break and after that short break more discussion and some real news stay with arkie. A new gold rush is underway in ghana thousands of ill equipped workers are flocking to the gold fields hoping to strike it rich. As. Children are torn between gold. Was very poor i thought i was doing my best get back to school which side will have the strongest appeal. Welcome back to crossfire were all facing considered im here to labelle remind you were discussing some real names. Ok because this goes to a switch gears lets talk about the strange case of natalee the more we learn or dont learn about this this story here about the alleged poisoning of mr noel me which is seen in the west as kind of the leader of the russian opposition to the political status quo i would like to preface by before i asked the question is it the. Hardly has much of a following in russia which you know of course western media would not tell their their audience as you know but it seems to be you know who are you who do you want to believe and i think this is where lee what what the origins of this strange case is about who you going to believe the russian said that this gentleman left the country with no indication that he had been poisoned and then german Officials Say just the opposite but at the same time not releasing to the public what kind of him from nightmare information they have that would prove that allegation so its kind of political football and its really more about Something Else that i want you to react to thats so far ahead. Oh firstly haste and there is no political reason for the kremlin to syria or want to assassinate around i why because its not how they stand in Russian Society is absolutely national stratus all Russian Society they hes a loser and alexina found it because he has to say but you want to marry a russian man and woman as being a fool is cullen all the United States or someone who wants to return to how it was during the 19th nineties by which i mean some city americans so he has no sand in will so far amongst ordinary russians secondly there is no economic reason for the kremlin so also assassinate no rally because that was in necessarily jeopardize nor straight and the russians do not want anything to affect no 3 why because a new strange comes to shes a very significant source of revenue for the russian governments friendly you dont have to be a scientist to understand that if someone sees poisons where for a nerve agent for example not in shock and especially in the confines of an aircraft then people who are around the person who is being poisoned on actually current city contaminated yes in that case and not passengers adjacent to him not carrying troops not the people who treated him well contaminates it treat it differently had attended to it so you assassinate about it why own pace or would they have to laugh at a child journey no in fact if not for safety issues he can i suppose and so the americans without a leg he has been poisoned by the friendly it is absolutely prosperous nonsense there is no reason why the kremlin was once assassinated. Found he asked and on top i would say this to the germans if they are so sussan that newfound me was some of the sense of quiznos around me by using nothing short and cool to see the evidence of the germans it goes to the kremlin wants us to not allow russian medical doctors and scientists to transition many of the German Authorities to share their medical and scientific findings with the russians its a simple as this statement if you have nothing to hide then you have no reasonable sense in all shapes finds and with a posse i know that isis warriors senior dog city applications surrounds you know how many its possible possible all of our own going concern and Vicious Campaign against russia because russia is a superpower going to find out its the americans and the british lower yield george can he still spread out because its been this weve been all script files again ok let a lot of transparency here but lets get to what i think this is all about and marcus is our meant here this in my opinion is my my conjecture is that this is just this one final attempt to. Derail north stream this is what this is really about ok and its putting the germans in a very hard place because Angela Merkel has made it very and shes on the way out it shes made it very care very clear during this entire process that this is an economic legal agreement this has nothing to do with politics she said and she pushed it based on those 2 principles now and really whatever is behind this gambit here once the germans to break there were and break their agreements ok which you know i dont like the american civil do it in the drop of a hat the germans are feel very uncomfortable about that and i think this is i think the pressure is not on the russians pressure is on the germans right now go ahead george. Well yes and theres obviously a very Strong Division of opinion within germany you have the German Military and security establishment that is start really embed it in atlanta so they close to the americans. Integrated within nato. And they have absolute every interest in trying to destroy this though its trying to deal however you also have the German Business Community that stands to make a lot of money on this and they say its important to remember this agreement this not stream to agreement was a German Initiative it was russia was a Russian Initiative i mean was it was the journey had im like i yeah yeah exactly so the way its often presented in the media is as if somehow this is a favor for the russians knows the fate of the germans who have very Serious Problems with energy that made a complete mess of the end if you follow so and it is extremely expensive in germany so they really badly need this cheap source of natural gas so for the germans not a scrap this agreement would be a very devastating blow but the germans havent done what the british did over the script all of them of the british were very skilled at mounting a kind of Global Propaganda Campaign that went to the u. N. Security council and denounce the russians they organized this diplomatic expulsions and so on the germans havent done that its not maybe that the divisions are so deep in germany that are unable to do it you know maybe the germans just simply are not convinced by the you know by the by the whole not only case but again its same with belarus its whats striking is the lack of the driving force as yet that took place of the script that john is having yet mounted that kind of wild hysterical campaign that the british. Every day that the moment theyre losing the momentum if they if they dont continue or not and thats why i think that merkels pragmatism will come through shes going to say but this is just an economic i mean we havent even mentioned the consumers i mean its a boon for german consumers as well ok since germany has moved away from coal and from nucular and marcus you know one part of the story when we look at north stream too is that why do we have these underground. Gas pipelines going through the baltic oh thats right because of what happened in ukraine ok i mean this is just so Foreign Policy chasing its tail ok you know it what with the the illegal overthrow of the government in 2014 is if it slipped. Ukraine strategic role in the Energy Equation of europe ok and so then the russians said look you stop stealing it this is not for you and ukraine would use it as a political ploy to play everyone off against everyone and the germans the if the russians said no we dont need to play this game its your game ok its more washingtons game too and so we need to consider why does pipelines came into being in the 1st place because of the quagmire that was created in ukraine and then it doesnt serve europes interest whatsoever go ahead marcus. I think we may serenely schussel and that germany heavily depends on russia for natural gas for its a colony of course its industry but im sorry for the scenario german man and woman asked him and i believe 65 percent of germanys gas actually comes from gaza so your time his life generally is 3014 was has a sense of place sanctions on the russians trying to ration because it essentially only in the interests of the German Economy of france is the only option in a coup you its highest its been badly. Not in all states and in twentys france it is not in the interests all generally known string to say. But of course the americans couldnt care less about the German Economy and in fact there is quite like a safe they generally call many county because we wanted to be. The americans but i think russo as well the americans are acutely aware as so of course is the kremlin that the russian economy boss it is one of the largest in the quote is is not a die for us economy the russian they are russian economy is say were overwhelmingly by stalin and italy and defense and salutes and i attended st cyr of scotland no shame that is the way of the americans not the germans the americans trying to weaken the russian economy and ultimately trying to assist a c. N. C. The americans know what the weaknesses of the russian economy as the american states and youre in the late seventys in the early 1980 s. The weaknesses of the soviet economy and supply one of the reasons why reagan mbox on a massive arms race was associated because he knew the soviets a convoy others and he knew much about politics in general the people around him year what weakness was the soviet union and that could bring the soviet union down and i think by trying to stop the node stream say this that that is the way or the americans trying to bring down the russian economy because they know the russian economy is similar not to die for us from the latin American Economy or the british economy i can put it at the end of the day george this is you know and i think you know this this incident is really put into stark relief of the importance of europe do they want to have Energy Independence or not do they want to have a say in their rate and their Energy Sovereignty because in washington with love they have the europeans by. Id actually liquefied natural gas at astronomical prices ok when europe for the most part is living in us territory and you want to the whole point is to get Affordable Energy liquefied natural gas is a blast 40 seconds go right so yet its yet another price that the europeans have to pay all nagel in the west the alliance youre going to have Expensive Energy use in your interest not cheap energy but you will have expensive to get just like ukraine youre going to have to hit a refugee flows Economic Crises and so on thats your price still a loyalty to nato and the west in the lines ok gentlemen thats all the time we have want to thank my guests and and budapest in london i want to thank our viewers for watching us here narky see you next time remember hasta. Join me every thursday on the alex salmond show and ill be speaking to guests of the world of politics for this list im showbusiness ill see you then. Right now. Was. That woman in with a man with opposed to some of this they were. On the federal law say the olympics before. Last time we chased. Each one of them carrying 20 kilos d of drugs. Forced a fence down. They just never break through. Its the very we have maintained all my little mundane they have insisted this is for me. I like it. I dont see it or no they dont. Make or. Break. For now or. Is youll be via reflection of reality. In a world transformed. What will make you feel safe. Isolation full community. Are you going the right way or are you being led so. Direct. What is true what is faith. In the world corrupted you need to descend. To join us in the depths. Or remain in the shallowness. German armed forces are poised to roll over special military rags for women in the name of gender equality reporting on that this morning the critics say thats the least of the problems right now. Last night of partying before a crowd brings over 6 takes of. From this morning. Dont tell people to go out there now. Because if you dont have to. Truck in this is well this morning brother russian president alexander lukashenko. Monday comes off for another weekend of my
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