On important Foreign Policy issues today europe has a choice to defend its interests or fade into oblivion. Crosstalk in the Atlantic Alliance im joined by my guest mark ullman in oxford hes the director of the Crisis Research institute in london we have Jonathan Steele hes an International Affairs commentator also in london we have a real because he is founder of a k. Consulting and a Foreign Affairs analyst all right gentlemen crosslike rules in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want and i always appreciate mark let me go to you 1st here and let me just read you 2 quotes here number one foreign minister lavrov played in munich saying quote change course speak for its too late and we have the new head of the European Unions Foreign Policy arm he said he also says europe must develop quote. Appetite for power in the trump era theyre both hinting at the same thing in Different Directions here what does that tell you Better Change course before its too late whats that mean to you. I think certainly the tensions between russia and the west in general are really probably tensions in russia in the United States and we can see that actually inside the European Union and the european members of nato there are quite sharp divisions between the east european states who live with historical enmity and resentments against both russia imperial russia and the soviet union and then the west european states including germany france and so on for whom a russian threat doesnt really exist anymore but who are paying a price through sanctions and economic losses for the grand a strategy of the United States to keep russia in its box and so there is a tension about where youre going to go because if this situation of a new cold war between russia and america continues is your really benefiting from that you know if it isnt which europeans are going to make and yeah i mean just to decide to move in a slightly different direction marc makes a very good point i mean that the tensions are primary between the United States and russia and europe as usual finds itself in the middle with a mixture as marx pointed out here but that is not a proper way forward that is that that is paralysis and as i said in my interrupted introduction they have to start defending their interests or theyre really going to become irrelevant because we have the rise of china the closer relationship between moscow and beijing where is europe in all of this go ahead jonathan. Well i think im glad you mentioned china because i think one of the main factors is the Munich Security Conference i mean trying to develop a new people in washington trying to develop a new cold war this time with china as the enemy as well as russia and it was important to the Chinese Foreign minister came and the respondent reacted quite severely against what the United States had been sorry i mean europe does not want to get involved in a russian incident american crusade against china europe must stand free from the bottom thats why its important britain has agreed to take away technology for its 5 g. Networks isnt going to be intimidated to a bullet was the United States to give up on that. Weve already seen when we look at the iran policy that the tribe in ministration was substantially and i used the word blackmailing european cars automotive producers to put a tax tariff on their cars if they dont toe the line i mean jonathan says you know theyre there theyre bucking that trend but i mean it gets kind of leads into where i want to go in the rest of the program is that you know the u. S. Still has not so many levers and coercive levers against europe that they dont toe the line go ahead in london. Thank you thank you for mentioning this and thank you for all the previous partners that you mentioned china because as we know it was not about russia it was about the china we know that. There are realistic Foreign Policy thinkers in the United States including John Mearsheimer who was present in 2015 and my very own university in poland you know you dont university told us about this very moment that we have the right where the unit European Countries and china. In one bed when it comes to trade and investment so it will cause a frictions we know that as we look at the democrats on both sides democrats and republicans the prime goal for the United States to contain china and china is the number one. Objective will start to dig somehow. Problem for the United States and as. Told to the audience in my alma mater the university is russia will become a part of balancing coalition so i dont understand why the United States is somehow. Both china and russia but in my opinion it might cause slightly different effect same as with sanctions on russia for the ukrainian crisis which was according to john. Very famous a realistic thinker course on the side of the. On the west not on. I mean you could also throw in these a antagonizing russia and china but mark antagonizing europe is well ok thats thats my point right here here here and this is in this is why im doing this program because i think the transatlantic experience is being seriously 10. Here because i would make the argument at least 100 trump theyre more interested in trade there are interested in europe i Energy Policy and oh ok you have to buy all these arms because you know theyre theyre important to american politics but they dont see it as a Security Threat this is this is a gambit for resources and denying trade to others this is what this is about and europe is being tested here go ahead mark you know i think if we can historically really from the Marshall Plan and post war more war policy towards western europe the United States had to deal with the european allies that in many ways who are now as we do well economically if they towed the political line and so there was a cost benefit to both sides now trump and pompei are basically saying to the europeans you got to pay up perfect and theres no more free rides but want to say there are no more free rides people dont have to assemble is one of the costs of having normally when we get more able what do we get for that exactly whats that real turn for them. If i can i jump in and so go ahead to the point if youre going to tell you im sure that all the panelists have noticed that europe is divided between all europe and new europe and when i write an article for forbes 1017. 00 addressing this issue it is trickles down to the pipeline and the revenge and the revenge a sentiment in the eastern part of europe which was somehow colonized by disorder union and as we can see german french and other western nations are reluctant to previous commentators rightly set to participate in that because they are realistically assessing the cost of of this participation of oil and also the moral cost of participating. In the iraq war but eastern European Countries are driven by slightly different parameters and as i said when it comes to the whole stream too we can see that the American Government of the American Administration is heavily subsidizing the pop pipeline invented by the polish government and in 2017 we know that the 1st transit of ellen g. Gas was delivered to show you know more than poland and board by the state owned oil and gas Company Called p n g n g so we know that trump displaying all you have all the hoax in the United States you know driving a wedge between the old europe and new year old and new europe is willing to spend more money on American Natural Gas than in russia and thats really logical in these these times of austerity jonathan i mean the crux of the whole thing is that the European Union are we can just say europe geographically cannot have a coherent trade in Foreign Policy if theyre not united and i cant see how theyre going to get united in light of what we just heard about the new europe go ahead jonathan you know i agree. Real chance of unifying Foreign Policy in spite of the fact aspires to be one but i mean i think we have to look to mark ronson inside of us to some extent because micros the only current leader of a major country in europe has the courage to say we need dialogue with russia russia is part of our geography russia is part of our history we have to have good relations with russia and hes trying to find some kind of independent Foreign Policy initiatives to bring russia into the picture and sanctions on russia because of ukraine and so true and defies the United States or macro as the great white hope i think for the European Unions efforts to create more independence and more even i would say resistance to the United States well its interesting market now that were on the crown it seems to me that he what he weighs emulating the goal essentially thats what he wants to do goal is that his return to france but will it work and or this guy go ahead. Work out i think to some extent its opportunistic but then thats the reality of all politics any successful politician moves with the time seize which way forces are going and recognizes that his domestic difficulties means that he has to in a sense distance himself from being seen as a classic globalist and a list reorientation of french Foreign Policy which has economic benefits would also perhaps help him in his reelection bid so theres a rational self interest the really interesting case is going to be britain i think because with britain leaving the you is britain going to become completely reorientated towards the anglosphere and become even closer to the United States its been already or theyre all reports obviously that Boris Johnson had a row with trump over huawei that are further reports that maybe the chinese will be invited to save our ridiculous expensive high speed rail way project because at least they will build it in 5 years or older than 25 years and so were beginning to see even between the british and americans or certain divisions between our natural tendency to be politically aligned and the economic interests which are increasingly diverging and including not least the. Economic benefits of trade with china which were trying to its not perceived as a threat to britain in the way that the United States sees around the pacific rim china is a threat to its traditional role in that whole region ok jonathan 30 seconds people ready to go to the break can they be that compromising middle europe when it comes to china and the United States go ahead im going to should certainly try and not sure how successful they can be british and certainly try and visit on a spirit of can have good relations with russia china and the United States well together. Well the interesting question is to be an honest broker i mean on the one hand i think thats what we would all like and that certainly would be in europes interest but you would offend probably both the United States and china at the same time it seems like a lose lose situation and well discuss that more in the 2nd half of the program were going to go to a short break and after that short break well continue our discussion on the Atlantic Alliance stayed with. I cant show you my face but im going to teach you must store in 9093 this man was sentenced to death. They could charged with capital murder even though he didnt have the gun didnt pull the trigger didnt intend to kill anybody imagine living in your bathroom for the week with the son of a 23. 00. I dont doubt that had to be. Confined within 4 green walls the phone its using. To help him to leave this room. Micrographs friends arent slights against you know whites or men for example theres their slights against women or nonwhites so its always you know the idea is that statements that directed toward a Privileged Group are interpreted differently than a statement directed toward an oppressed group and so thats kind of the whole framework and its a its a political framework thats used the result is of course focusing at least on certain kinds of minor slights and say or rather the north more than we need to call attention to them but its not all slights so its a very political in its contents. Lead. Welcome across the uk where all things are considered im Peter Lavelle to remind you were discussing the Atlantic Alliance. Because i could really in london you know i find it was a few months ago i found it. Amusing that the New York Times would write an editorial that trump probably should consider improving relations with russia which you know after all weve been through with this ridiculous hoax and the demonization of anyone that has you know if you have russian. Solid solace you know youre suspect somehow. Making light of something that is very serious here but you know you having some you know the New York Times saying you know maybe trump should consider doing that because of the embrace with china i mean this has been going on for years now that that horse has left the barn i mean i find it astounding that the political establishment is saying well maybe we should reconsider i mean decisions have already been made and the reason why im mentioning that because europe is going to have to make that decision its because its so damn divided internally its never going to be able to sit down and choose one side of the other and i think its going to be the net loser in all of this here but going back to some of the things that you know as mark was saying you know with the way history holds europe back when i look at the baltic republics and poland and all that when the future is screaming forward at you at high speed and i think europe is going to be left to the side because it really is the United States china with the chinese russian lions and it is not alone. Its now go ahead and rail in london well i totally agree with you peter this is even from the geopolitical political point of view the real realists in in europe know the sea powers like britain and United States have slightly different interests when it comes to. The future or the well being of the land powers including hands europe china and russia but we have to bear in mind that european peons were quite reluctant and lazy after the 2nd world war in you know taking their own matters in their own hands they somehow took the back seat and they were silent observers all for what their leader in the western hemisphere read United States is doing regardless where the. Morally justified or not but somehow now they they see the young generations are quite dispy see with the deadline the leader in the western hemisphere hemisphere is showing to also we have to bear in mind Everyone Wants to participate in the great revolution that no logical revolution and. Historically we know that china never attacked europe so so why we should be afraid of them why the United States is putting so much emphasis on you know blocking who are away from entering the European Market market why do offering to subsidize their european competitors read nokia and ericsson it is not a friend or a strictly business no its not strictly business because you know its the im watching wants to determine who has a back door into everyones computer in europe thats what they want big theyre afraid of chinese spy no they want to do the spying themselves ok because you know you can trust us you can try so. Spying on you not those chinese i mean it is so ridiculous and so hypocritical here mark i want you already mentioned something i think is really interesting with breaks that how does the Atlantic Alliance as weve known it over the decades how does that change because i think you could see you could see europe being alienated by the u. K. If it gets too much into bed with washington and it doesnt matter if trump is president i think people but way too much into that historical trends that are happening its not it doesnt matter but particularly who is in the white house go ahead mark no in fact ironically trump in the white house pushes poll to the British Government to form still be closer to the European Parliament and ited states one could imagine a new american president who follow broad Foreign Policy consensus with awful does trump has actually as hes always pointed out been tougher on russia tougher on china than his predecessors and so in a sense he set a precedent that will be followed which is indorsed by the Foreign Policy establishment in the states see any area of his policy they support the problem for the british would be that it is awful likely that theyre going to be asked to pay an economic price for what in many ways comes culturally and for historical reasons if not for the churchillian romanticism of the transatlantic relationship comes naturally to us and so i think it is likely to be the case that these trends inside continental you countries particularly the west european powers of the to seek to have a more sensitive european centered policy not least because with britain they dont have to pay more for these things the french the germans the dutch and so on will have to pick up the slack so youre going to get a consequence of that in practice will be tensions inside your between the east european states that are overly concerned by hostile for historical reasons to russia and also supported by u. S. Policy and then these countries we truly are the economic heart and the taxpaying heart the. You will be much more reluctant about those polls i mean big city that. Youve already mentioned and i mean i mean people you know i agree i mean the heart of the cold war settlement you know that europeans would get great trade deals with the United States true and i understand why trump wants to for the perfect sense theyre ok but what you get who gets what for what is the question right here and i dont think polities put in the powerhouses of you as you put it i dont think they they really have an incentive to spend more why where is the threat whos threatening us i mean of course the you know the phobia in the u. S. And the u. K. Who are well known well known but i dont see in times of austerity what you want to say for the major keep going yeah the major Security Threats of course come from come from north africa come from the chaos in libya that we helped to cornells so and so in that sense if you will the average french or italian citizen or more danger of being killed by weaponry and bombs coming. Liberated intervention states where we cause chaos and then you are from russia or china and that is a big problem in Public Perception we dont the average person doesnt see what the think tanks see as the sort you know jonathan that jonathan i think one of the interesting things here is that the United States and the Atlantic Alliance they have gotten so used to having such a heavy damage and having had gemini for the last 7 decades that they they dont understand how to reimagine the world that they dont have it and i think it is the lack of imagination and how the world is changing and i think it terrifies them i mean the new cold war with china just look at the rhetoric they go back to the same rhetoric we need to have a cold war we need to have an enemy and the world this evolving so quickly why do you necessarily have to have an i mean we have to we could look at the. United states going to europeans and european governments feeling want to come to what were trying to present. A rift between us and europe on that one was me i mean having spoken in the 1st part of the program of a macro during the god thing hes doing the right thing but in the wrong methodology hes still talking about the study and using military power hes hinting that knowledge theres only one Nuclear Power in the European Union now is that britain sniffed because of bricks that its very Old Fashioned 1000. 00 century thinking to think about military power being the most important element of a countrys Foreign Policy we need much more soft and i mean speaking up looking for mediation particular in the middle east i mean moment mark almond mentioned libya and north africa but what about the central issue of the middle east which its israel palestine i mean trump has just come up with a military the most outrageous socalled peace plan and europe has been almost silent about it britain indeed has protected us at the Un Security Council from being criticized were going to must speak out on the central issue of the middle east which is palestine we must start bringing sanctions to bear against israel responded quote some of the produce it comes from their own occupied territories disgruntled should be the year of getting back to the promised on a new service the main issue which infects everything in the middle east you know its interesting if we go to a drill and i want to on the back of what have jonathan just said there i agree and disagree with jonathan l. Quibble and one thing. Falling back on these traditional levers of Power Military but actually i think its more cynical than that because what you saw at the munich conference is basically the export forcible export of of western values and that forcible export is the military here and i think that that is something that i find the height of hypocrisy is that talking talking about values while maintaining and wanting to pursue head gemini and i think that makes those false values youre actually might maintaining a gemini based on things that are. Or a facade ok now its my way or the highway thats what it is and thats coming to an end theyre scared about it go ahead adrian. Well. Again i agree with you. Professor somewhere huntington who has written a lot of very famous clash of civilizations. Said to us the west didnt you know win the war by the superiority of its ideas values or religion it was the superiority of organized violence post on nonwestern countries that gave the supported superior to the west and previous commentators that i think we think the United States or the anglosaxon world is having a slightly 1 heavy mental breakdown from the. Perception of the world where the america or the you know some. People aware of the leading force which you know helping other countries or other nations to somehow stand on the ground and be much more civilized in a brackets as we can see that all civilization caught china is far beyond technologically and thats why we can see people like you know Mark Zuckerberg participating in uni you know when we dont really interesting here is instead of talking about the new cold war its really the new orientalism thats really what it is ok i find it really fascinating because its inherently racist which of course the west never could claim that its not races that we should attack raises im but the way they look at the entire world is racist how could the chinese run the world oh my goodness you know a nonwhite country having had gemini in the world oh my god you know this is. What its all about nobody wants to admit that winsted what they should do is negotiate and mediate for once in a good faith thats all the time we have gentlemen many thanks to my guests in london and in oxford and thanks to our viewers for watching us here see you next time and remember. Believing in weird things by the way this called superstition or magical thinking believing weird things like that is not a bug in the system its a feature that calms equipped in the software of our programming to try to connect things in the environment just in case theres a real connection. And good use who was before. Much of those who heard the preview. See him we will. Go. With a. Look sure didnt look beautiful believe you looked good or. More most of these girls who do films for good good. Dont go to shows to look but to distribute belonging to show the story should go. To start ups to take it to need to fill it with the little blue mist they say look it is its. Just testing understand just meet them and dont try to stop the president and hes been trying this morning jim. If you have petitions to go to school to snoop or come with them you will because those the girls who were in this report just a room she shouldnt feel you should cook door for the one whos doing. Whatever and go. Out. There. For. A residence or order 3 self isolate only leaving their homes when absolutely necessary its the toughest step so far in russias bid to contain the spread of cope with the times. Square new york 1st responder struggle to contain the outbreak in americas worst hit city president john claims that keeping the u. S. Death toll below 100000 would be a very good job. Youre talking about 2200000 deaths if we could hold their down as were saying 200000 its a horrible number we all together of done a very good jerk
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