Been discussing for the past 10 years here on kaiser report and one of the people most responsible for the imbalances that we see in the world that the global trade imbalances the global neal liberal imbalances caused by all of this insanity of sending our manufacturing overseas for example is Larry Summers he was the treasury secretary under bill clinton from 1909 to 2001 so he oversaw glass steagall remove all he oversaw w t o. Except in china into the World Trade Organization he saw all those sort of things that dismantled the commodity futures modernization act he saw the stuff that created the destabilization that we see going on so it was quite ironic or and indeed quite repulsive to see him tweet this max thoughts at the end of a long week why cant the greatest economy in the history of the world produce swabs facemasks and ventilators and adequate supply Larry Summers is a key figure in americas downfall the problems of the kovac 1000 virus today and the problems in the markets around the world have a direct antecedent to. Larry summers and that codds array of elites harvard elites and wall street the leads who decided to the American Economy carve out everything and leave a rotting corpse in their wake and now hes frantically trying to deflect and assign blame and point fingers and he needs to look in the mirror Larry Summers as a heinous repulsive character in American History who is goes down in history as somebody who is Benedict Arnold the almost quality theres a saying that goes he who smelt it dealt it well heres the guy who smells the situation perhaps hes the one that dealt this rotten smelly situation now think about it in the United States as weve covered many times that the United States is a hospital masquerading as a country we have 18 percent of our g. D. P. Is devoted to the Health Care System and one of the arguments that many in the think tanks and beltway elite and wall street elite why they argue that we need to spend 18 percent is that we have were innovators where like we have the best Healthcare System in the world so how is that Healthcare System on able to produce basic personal Protection Equipment that all hospitals need in fact we saw a columbia presbyterian one of the top hospitals in the world in new york city cleaned online for any donations they gave the address to send any of your masks and especially and 95. 00 masks to them because they were about to run out so how is that situation how does that emerge when 18 percent of our g. D. P. Goes to health care of course i think it was dick cheney who said that russia is a gas station masquerading as a country well are they ever going to run out of gasoline are they going to run out of Oil Anytime Soon no that would be the equivalent so here we spend 18 percent of our g. D. P. And yet we cant provide any health care we. Have ventilators will have simple masks their explanation is somewhat some simple and Larry Summers again plays into it and under his a treasury head during the clinton years as sick people are predictable income streams just like prisoners are predictable income stream and whenever you have a predictable income stream like sick and dying people you can use that to collateralize the bond market and so we have the 40 year bull market in bonds that just recently came to an end but thats based on people on wall street like Larry Summers and others to collateralize that predictable income stream to create a Mount Everest of debt. And to play games in the bond market to create that raunchy income that recurring source of income how theyve become billionaires by capitalizing on sick and dying people nuts how the Hospital System became so huge in americas because its predictable people are will be picked to play die a good society doesnt turn that into a Profit Center for the worst elements in society a good society would downplay that and thats not america well another element that is discussed widely on line is of course our hospitals are massive profit centrists owned by private equity and it makes no economic sense you do not earn any profit by having spare ventilators in your basement they cost about 35000. 00 each and it makes no sense to spend the money on that when 35000. 00 could go toward stock buybacks or to executive compensation so thats one of the things but in terms of this covert 19 i want to discuss the fact that the c. D. C. Released numbers about the mortality rate per age group in america and pretty much under 44. 00 its a very low mortality rate relative to the rest of the population over 45. I mean if its worst than the flu but its still low compared to those over 45. 00 so i want to point out that the same thing the coven 1000. 00 is also hitting the currency of the u. S. Dollar which is 49 many people are saying that this is genuinely the moment had 19 is killing has killed has put on life support in the i. C. U. There are no ventilators left and people are looking for some sort of ventilator or so 5 will mechanism for the u. S. Dollar but it went from 1971 to 2020 that was the death of the dollar and we could have flattened the curve over the past few decades we could have avoided this situation but we we let it go out there mingle in and not do the social distancing equivalent for currency ive said this before out just briefly restate this but this concept of gaia which is mother earth you can look it up online. Is one of extreme and ultimate karmic justice the dollar violated the rules of gaia by by putting money into the pockets of the cancer that is a Larry Summers and his friends and it also created the imbalances in a country like china where they sit the rush to grow min obliterating all safety pretty precautions and so now we have a reversion to the mean the stock market i could imagine trading in a 1000 again on the dow and that would be an appropriate level given the true underlying economic factors the bond market Interest Rates would be 4 and 5 percent in the 30 day Interest Rate ok that would mean bonds would be down 506070 percent but thats thats thats a return to normal valuation and thats what we need right now is speaking of bonds i actually have an amazing chart for you comparing the situation in the. The Financial Markets in particular and the Monetary Policy markets is that this is the cove in 1000. 00 killing off the field out system and the bond market as weve always warned its been like in a bull market for the past 4050 years that this is the biggest market of all so when this goes when this erupts and most people have known only calm and bull market and positive times when this erupts this is the end essential and the system this is what a bond crash looks like value of global bonds has plunged by 5 trillion 1. 00 to 55. 00 trillion in the past 2 weeks equal to the g. D. P. Of japan and bester sphere a tsunami of new debt as governments around the world prepared to release massive fiscal stimulus plans right the bond bull d market the bubble 5th biggest bubble in the World Economy in all its not because it certainly wasnt gold it was the bond market the sovereign bond market and when these countries started this you negative Interest Rates sovereign debt that was your big sign in the sky like a huge batman signal in the sky like this is about to crash this is about to crash the bond market of course will go reversion to the mean itll restore itll go back to its long term trend of 56 percent in terms of a 10 year bond sovereign up on that means a 50 to 60 percent mark down in the bond market which means pretty much every s. And p. Corp now is going to have to declare bankruptcy give or take a few theyre going to need massive bailouts massive restructuring massive layoffs but this is the price to pay for for blowing this enormous bubble this is a bubble popping started with clinton in a huge way and Larry Summers and its funny that larrys point trying to point the finger when he and he was the architects of this enormous bomb bubble and robert rubin and Alan Greenspan. And ben bernanke and janet yellen who said she doesnt expect another financial crisis in her lifetime and these are the the happy talk propagandist for the bond dealers like Goldman Sachs and citibank and the others who put this false sense of security as if they Interest Rates could go forever negative at best to say that we would go backwards in time. Forever because but the bottom line is that now time has value as it should the yield curve will get normal but not after will see which countries can survive the bond crash Foreign Countries particularly in asia whove been the victim of americas bomb bubble are resilient and theyre already coming out of the cold the crisis because theyve built up resiliency the u. S. Has no resiliency Goldman Sachs is expecting the economy in the United States to decline by 24 percent in the 2nd quarter whether or not you know well see civil disorder because of that i know in our in terms of our just in time neal liberal sort of a condom me there are i noticed supply chain issues in our local area where supermarkets still 56 days later have no supply so i dont know what people who havent stocked up or who dont have any supplies at home a reasonable amount or who have you know live paycheck to paycheck i dont know what theyre doing and in fact Larry Summers did tweet that right after his comments about why dont we have a nice law as he said why is everybody buying guns he said he said it says it suggests that people think there is a civil disorder coming well probably because theyve been to the supermarket a few times and seen no food well i want to point out that when you mentions why theyre over its thats because they have supplies they have masks they dont have to shut down their economy south korea taiwan singapore havent had to shut down their economy like we are having to do because they have mass for every. Body to wear and thats really important not so much for catching it but for spreading it so if anybody who is asymptomatic or slightly sick or anything like that Walking Around youre going to get it from them from just their breath if youre within 6 feet of them but they all get to wear masks and thus keep their economy going we dont have mass for a doctors let alone for our citizens so again this is an issue that weve decided to take this multimillion chilean dollars have hit a 24 percent decline in the economy and mass on rest because we dont believe and that socialist or communist or sort of planning having 5 year plans having one month plans is considered socialist right asia is resilient probably because Larry Summers back of my phone lines suggested to put all ship all the jobs for america asia larry. Nazi boy all right were going to take a break when i come back much more coming your way. I cant show you my face but im going to teach you must story in 993 this man was sentenced to death. They could charged with capital murder even though he didnt have the gun didnt pull the trigger didnt intend to kill anybody imagine living in your bathroom for that week with the scent of a 23. 00. I doubt that i deserve to be. Confined within 4 gray walls the fights he was in. Can all help him to leave dents room. Is your media a reflection of reality. In a world transformed. What will make you feel safe. Isolation or community. Are you going the right way or are you being led. Direct. What is true what is faith. In the world corrupted you need to descend. To join us in the depths. Or a maybe in the shallowness. One of the welcome back to the kaiser report imax kaiser you know the great thing about twitter is you find people they start following and you find a wealth of knowledge and information i mean or to stand tapir ow follow me on twitter he is a macro investor for 25 years hes got lots of it think stuff to say about the u. S. Dollar of gold and bitcoin welcome dan hi thank you for having me all right my pleasure now in my 1st question here is the fed began the week with announcing it more new programs to help markets including open ended asset purchases dan can the fed fight kovac 19 with an exponential growth and its Balance Sheet damn yeah i mean i think they need to there need to be offsets the policy of shutting everyone in as you know is going to lead to some dramatic unemployment and contraction in g. D. P. In q 2 thats probably greater than weve ever seen i mean it will be greater bullard last night the sense st louis fed governor said he thinks its 30 percent unemployment and 50 percent drop in g. D. P. I think thats a bit extreme and Goldman Morgan stanley have come out. Recently was sort of less extreme but you know that there needs to be extreme policy to lean against that kind of contraction and weve also seen a contraction liquidity in the markets people dont realize this but quite a few of the Corporate Credit markets munis those markets have been are frozen in some cases i dont see no bid but you know virtually no bid for certain securities and so that tells you that the fed really isnt doing their job weve had an exogamous non economic shock. And really this. Its what Central Banks of were invented for to lean against these type of things so i think theyve been very slow to the punch. And im glad finally dismembering that they have come out with such a policy i say one more thing i think that. You know we all know this policy is working not because the stock market stabilizes which hopefully will based on this plus the fiscal policy. But because the dollar should start to weaken if the dollar does not weaken even with all this policy it tells you that liquidity is not yet plentiful enough and so thats sort of the measure and as the dollar weakens and theres a sign that theres more dollars in the world because were dealing with the dollar shortage youll start to get a very strong move in gold as well all right i want to office on one thing that you mentioned in a set that the fed said this is what theyre designed to do to come in during an emergency situation like this and be active my question is this dan looking at the history of the fed starting with Alan Greenspan and the socalled greenspan put and then the bernanke he put and then the janet yellen put and now the jay powell put it seems like the fed has not really been doing on its supposed to be doing and that is taking away the punchbowl when things get too frothy it seems like theyve actually been exacerbating this problem for several decades and now here we are in 2020 what the worst crisis and oh you know depending on how you look at it 506100 years and they they have no real ammunition left dan dan what do you think i think unlimited is plenty of ammunition and i think if. You know if they were overly easy we would have seen that as they said in the dollar the dollar has been super strong against all currencies and that tells you. That policy in fact in fact has be. Tighter than it should have been and i think. In terms of taking away the punchbowl they tried to do that in 2018 it led in december to a complete wipe out again. Largely because the underlying pressures in the World Economy are still deflationary and there are a lot of reasons for that and you can talk about that for hours and hours. So i dont think the fed has been i think they try to take away that punch ball they never hit their inflation target late 18 they had to reverse course and then build up the Balance Sheet again. And in early 19 and that you know i so they pulled back from too tight a policy and i think that it didnt pull back far enough and then again in q 4 last year they had to start expanding the Balance Sheet again so i would argue that the fed policy has been too tight for the last year and a half and one of the things that also makes me think that is that even when they brought rates down to 0 recently the real rates. Skyrocket we went from minus 80 basis points on the 5 year real rate to plus 50 basis points because Inflation Expectations have completely collapsed and so what weve seen so far is that even though the fed rate is 0 the fed funds rate. The real rate is much more positive than it should been dead and that it should be and so i think by going to unlimited purchases they have a chance perhaps to bring down those market rates to at least be in line with the drop in Inflation Expectations the 2nd part of this is dont forget is down 70 percent from earlier this year it is a massive deflationary shock that were suffering there. On top of the 25. 00 trillion dollars in wealth thats been lost in in the markets so im not in agreement with you i think the fed needs to do more easing theyve been too slow and theyve been focused on my new little changes in the c. P. I. The 10th year a 10th there thats what they were worried about in 1718 completely misplaced inflation was never a problem and nell we have collapse Inflation Expectations and they need to reverse those as does the government with a very strong fiscal package here all right lets talk about this g. D. P. Number for the 2nd quarter the best Case Scenario same survey at 24 percent drop which is what be the biggest drop ever in the u. S. And the worst case of course considerably more how does that impact gold and bitcoin now interestingly enough youre a macro guy and you have been talking about bitcoin d very constructively and you have a lot of great insights and to pick points i think a lot of folks who are in the gold camp are not necessarily in the bad coin cap but here same to equate the 2 so how would how are those 2 assets kind of going to respond to whats happening all the next 2 or 3 or 4 quarters down this contraction in g. D. P. Is so large. You know i dont think authorities know how to respond to it i think were doing the best that we can. I think its massively bullish gold it might be the most bullish gold offense maybe since the since the nixon deep peg to be honest. And i think its massively bushra big point as well. And you know the the part of the reasons big coin was invented was you know out of the 08 crisis and. Really out of fear of the extreme deep basement a fee you know that gets talked about a lot in the big coin space. We need to have the dollar go down. And. You know i think policy will not be successful. And i dont think well be able to lean against this credit contraction and it does if it doesnt go down. So you know gold you know gold is at 1516 right now. And thats with the dollar at its highs so if policy is Strong Enough on both fiscal and monetary to offset this contraction you could have a 101520 percent drop in the dollar that is normal that isnt necessarily a reason to panic. You know yes theres some debasement of fear perhaps the dollar drop will get the europeans and the chinese off there actually help out this process and do some real stimulus. You know if you look at european banking stocks theyre still down 90 percent from the 07 high theyre down 50 percent in the last 56 weeks you know the europeans are woefully have been woefully inept and certainly not speedy the chinese still have Interest Rates that you know bond rates at 3 percent they should be down one so a dollar drop of significance would sort of force them to act as well which would be a positive thing. Yes so you could be looking at you know i dont know if the dollar always 5 to 10 percent 1st or you know and that gets the authorities to realize they havent done enough. But im hoping that the bazooka that weve seen here unimog q. E. From the fed this big fiscal package i think this should give the currency guys enough of a of a sense and and there should be a lot more liquidity out there a lot more dollars out there. And you know without even considering all the other things that are very positive for gold. You know we could be looking at a 50. I mean 101520 percent dollar drop if things return to a more healthy situation and i think thats demo them a bode well for big coin as well look big coin as i said is on its own thing i think one of the things that big point is this digital gold i think its many many other things as well as royal you know rope out called it a call on the future i think its definitely that you know it is i think of it in the future i think it will be the value protocol for the for the internet for all transactions of value if you look at the sefton. You you know book he you know he thinks it will be the you know collateral lare all of that stuff puts a value on big coin thats trillions of dollars and we have enough time to get it all that ive talked about that no other places. But all of this systemic on the systemic breakage that were witnessing right now this is why big coin was invented. So i dont know what could be more bullish for bitcoin what about the at bond market how the Government Bond market the bond market spend and basically a 40 year bull market and a lot of people have called the top of the bond market for the last 10 or 15 years and been wrong but is have we finally hit the top in the bond market and are we into analysis or bear market for the bond market now and main creeping Interest Rates going higher now on a secular basis down i think you dont really need to call a top in the bond market i think its a very fancy call d and i say that because we really need lower rates for an extended period here to offset this massive contraction the fed has just told us that theyre going to be doing on limited q. E. Buying treasuries and probably mortgages and corporates. As. I think its a very its a very fancy call that you dont really need to make the risk reward of making that bet isnt at this moment today not great it may be the top but i dont really i think there are plenty of other bets out there investments for investors to make that are a lot easier well well well said dan you dont want to end up and they pile of wrong bomb callers the widowmaker as it has been for the last 20 years while the late sir anyway thanks for being on the kaiser report my pleasure right thats going to do it for this edition of the kaiser report with me max kaiser and Stacy Herbert like to thank our guest antiparallel follow on twitter its great great to follow jonah catch us on twitter its kaiser report thats next time. He is doing it with fuel i dont know maybe you need to go. Just after they call it was a while and before that they had never been told they d cant thats why all the while he was. Always told was oh yeah that measures come on guys you have to go on all the measures when you get it was going to disease what will prevent. Your government and our government and all the other major governments of the world know whats going to them when its going to. But they havent told you and they havent told me they have them and theyll still. Imagine something as big as the earth is going to cause tidal waves earthquakes volcanoes are wrapped and its going to chill. So very for a while right. My great grandfathers court. Nobody would care about the law or prison so youd have wallace the shoot her of. A terrible life between though and the. Show seemed wrong. But old bulls just dont call. Me old yet to shape out these days become educated and in gains from an equals betrayal. When so many find themselves worlds apart when shes to look for common ground. Yes. And 2016 millions of europeans are taking to the streets while learning it has refused to sign the Free Trade Agreement with canada triggering a crisis across europe. That that i am not and that the treaty negotiations brought to light a largely unknown Organization International arbitration tribunals that allow multinationals to sue states. Philip morris is trying to use i. E. S. T. s to stop oracle from implementing new tobacco regulations aimed at cutting domestic smoking rates of Orange Company sued egypt because egypt raise
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