People who are organizing it think that well you can just print all the money you need you need a program print more money theres socialism for banks on wall street as was pointed out recently one of the big president ial debates you know bank gets in trouble just print more money well whats the ultimate scarce commodity what is the ultimate scarce commodity think about what is the ultimate scarce commodity. The most scarce commodity of all time and that isnt the headline here ikea becomes 1st retailer to let customers pay using time ikea is now letting customers pay for goods with their time yes thats right the more time customers spend travelling to ikea the more they can buy because beginning from this month ikea dubai is running a campaign that will allow customers to spend their time as a currency simply by showing ikea checkout staff their google maps timeline which proves how much time they spent travelling to ikea stores now this is fascinating on a number of Different Levels 1st of all ikea is recognizing that time has value time has value in traditional Financial Markets time also has values and its expressed in an Interest Rate a 2 year bond 5 year bond 10 year bond would yield greater interest because it is good for a greater amount of time and time has value so its remarkable that we live in an era in the 21st century the era of negative Interest Rates which implies. Is that not only does time have no value but the value of time is negative thats what wall street wants you to believe thats what Central Banks in europe thats what denmark wants its savers who put deposits at saxo bank to believe that they can confiscate wealth with a negative Interest Rate because according to sachs so not only does time have no value but it has less than 0 value heres ikea saying oh you know what time has value were going to pay you for that time in the discount you make a purchase at our store the point i think is that Going Forward now the ultimate scarce commodity of time will factor heavily into all kinds of Financial Products in our lives and im waiting for someone to invent the time futures contract rematch and if you can trade time on a futures contract you could travel backwards and forwards through time which would be great especially for Goldman Sachs if they want to go backwards in time and steal from customers from 20 years ago they can do so with the time futures contract weve kind of have that in a way and thats what youre seeing here in the u. S. Elections i believe either its like some other nation and there diabolical means or its the young people who are basically witness saying time travel the boomers collateralized they pull forward the next 4050 years of consumption and it was their millennialism generations e that they they they consumed their lives so thats why there is this offered moment of when where is 0 rates Interest Rates time no longer has value because 40 years ago when Interest Rates were up at 20 percent. They seem more value to time now were all the way down to 0 percent and where do we go from here were trying to do negative were trying to go back in time and and take back some of that future consumption that we already spent so yeah this is an interesting ride by lowering Interest Rates down to 0 you encourage hyper consumption in hyper consumption consumption for 203040 years in the future consume today you end up with 2 things number one the gen z. Inherit a lot of debt because you know the way you can bring Interest Rates down to 0 is if you issue a lot of debt and have a central bank buy that debt paul krugman at the New York Times remember he said its only debt that we owe ourselves hes wrong that this debt we owe generations e generation millennial is accent or a so thats where the circle is squared is that the future generations are left with this hyper consume world of nothing the 2nd corollary would be Something Like the coronavirus coronaviruses the product of hyper consumption due to 0 percent Interest Rates due to chinas attempt to compete with america on a compressed timeline by floating their economy with trillions of dollars with the debt and having everyone engaged in hyper consumption now weve got the coronavirus thats a direct result and so will the now we go back to the middle ages as weve been saying for years though a return to neo feudalism is upon us since some parts of china today they are now revisiting feudal times theyve been stripped of all the modern era of technological advances and theyre digging in the ground with hoes trying to find roots and vegetable soup survive ikea of course you know cuts down chopped down a lot of forests around the world and turns them into you know betting and and cupboards and stuff like that so in a way maybe this is also them trying to realize that were running out of time and they themselves want to cap. All eyes on that nevertheless this program is only available right now in dubai its called dubbed by with your time the idea behind the new promotion is that customers usually spend an inordinate amount of time traveling to ikea outlets usually because said outlets reside on the outskirts of town in view of this ikea has added time currency prices for every item in its dubai stores which are based on the average dubai salary as such customers are now able to buy products all the time they spent travelling to ikea over the years in addition to the usual derms so i guess its kind of like Airline Miles be your encouraging i guess are having problems with people wanting. To i really want to drive an hour and a half in a tight ikea but if youre being discounts at the time. Well yeah theyre competing with amazon out there in other words amazon they dont have the problem of the super stores located 30 miles away from where you live they have overnight delivery so i keep saying especially sometimes i was probably going to branch out into those areas like furniture that ikea does and that was on doesnt currently do so well and theyll say look will compensate you for that distance they arbitrage between ikea and amazon will be close because were going to pay you for the distance and time that you spent getting to the ikea store but you said something just there thats kind of interesting maybe ikea recognizes that were running out of time and i think that that is something that people are starting to realize you know member the Doomsday Clock and every 6 months or year that some organization i dont even know what the organization is they say heres the Doomsday Clock and were 10 seconds closer to midnight and up until recently i think people thought that was a marketing gimmick but i think now people are understanding that that is in fact a documentary of where we are as a species we may actually be approaching the end of the species so why not rush out to a kid and buy just a drawer for your 6 year old before the end of time another person who. I think weve already discussed this see so were running out of time as iran mosque and his electric cars now his you know mad max sort of vehicle that is apparently doing very well and of course his plan b. Perhaps e. S. P. Queen i believe he does but his other plan b. Is to get to mars to abandon this planet and try to find more time there but this electric car story is also in the news because again this is you know time is one of the major ingredient in terms of Financial Markets and pricing commodities and anything equities but is also important for what were going to listen to here as electric car sales soar the industry faces a cobalt crisis 1st it was lithium now its cobalt electric vehicles need them for batteries but supply issues will only worsen as demand rises so there is an increasing demand for electric cars in the mosque has you know helped popularize it were also running into the same old conflict that we had with the Combustion Engine and oil based cars in the resource how to get that resource and again that heads us towards that doomsday of more war we have some would argue or some do suggest that the situation in bolivia is due to all of them having a huge part of the Global Lithium supply cobalt could be the same thing because apparently theyre running out of cobalt and everybodys fighting to get supplies is actually hitting production on some manufacturers will go into soon right well capitalism works if the price signals are clearer and they reflect true supply and demand the problem with fossil fuels in particular oil for 50 years is that we havent had an accurate price signal given the fact that the amount of credit and capital needed to drill in the environmental consequences of burning the price of a gallon of oil should. Be at this time probably 90. 00 to 100. 00 a gallon to truly reflect the actual cost of that gallon of oil in a true free market capitalist system they use to say when the price started to get to 23040. 00 a gallon you know maybe 20 years ago 25 years ago then we would have already been on the fast track to developing alternatives to fossil fuels by now and we wouldnt have waited to the very last doomsday 2nd to say oh my god we didnt allow capitalism to clear these markets in an efficient way so now were going to become prematurely extinct but im going to upload my subconscious to a computer somewhere and put it on a lawn mosques were bidding platform to get to mars and hope theres not just another place where i cant get a date going back to this story just so you know for electric cars Global Production of electric vehicles is predicted to top 4000000. 00 globally this year in 2020 providing the coronavirus doesnt go full pandemic and destroy demand like it has in china and there is a 92 percent collapse in car purchases. It is expected to grow again providing everything continues as it has in the past and there is you know that is always an assumption for many investors they think oh times being great you know Interest Rates keep falling forever for the last 40 years stock markets keep going up for the last 40 years its going to continue like this for the next 40 years so right now if they continue on the same trajectory theyre predicting that there will be 12000000. 00. Cars sold in 2025 right well look up on the Search Engine there the concept of g. A a this is the idea pretty much the holistically we live in one to rare am inputs and outputs and if you have an exaggeration of the inputs lets say Global Cancer that is. The Combustion Engine going for too long it will kill the entire to rary and is destroyed but gaia is not without their own ability to push back so is the coronavirus of gaia pushing back against humans is big coin gaia pushing back against money i would posit yes absolutely it all and i think goes back to the seti project of the mid ninetys the search for an extraterrestrial intelligence a massively parallel computing project that i was participating in the mid ninetys i believe we made contact with actual trust roles and i believe they reverse engineer their way back into our collective unconscious thats who invented big coing and that is now part of the move toward extinguishing everything except what is truly sustainable whats not sustainable is the segment we have to take a break and when we come back i have no idea whats happening dont go away. Im going to repeat it promises. To the people. Or bots. You want to. Know. Before the cut. It would be all. About but. Ill. Leave. You to all this is all the good. Old please. Please. Please. Please. Welcome back to the kaiser report im max hisor time now to turn to willie wu he is a partner at the adaptive fun crafting hyper sheet and a specialist on chain analysis of bitcoin willie welcome thank you makes great to see you were here in vegas and confiscate a bill conference lot of great people like yourself and others are here and a good time now on trade analysis what is that why do you do it what sort of analysis can you derive from looking at the change. Like new stuff. Being a financial instrument. We dont see this in wall street it has a legion we can look on to it lead you we see capital flows if you can divine that date or you can get a read into with the markets going and you are also well known on twitter and elsewhere for making some good pressure and calls about the direction of break well get into that a 2nd but lets talk about this on chain analysis now there was a recent brouhaha over a company thats been paid 50000000. 00 per year by the u. S. Government to trace coins on the block is that separate to what you do. But as it says like who are these people with the funds going. To track with the financial modeling the whole market movements of capital but actually the forensics come into it sometimes you want to see we coins are leaving exchanges are they going to personal wallets mine is selling will they going they going to. That sort of thing is predicting provides a predictive signal to the market. That the whole k y c kind of thing. During the day its another speak on chain analysis we dont deal with it so capital flows and as you point out what that chain analysis is you get a unique look you dont get in other markets and so you are dealing into capital flows. And youre seeing where this capital is coming from where its going and before this war was your were you in to Financial Markets. Traded the banking collapse in 2008200720 extension 08 but im a tick what drew me into becoming this is a new sort of feel bleeding edge and i really like bleeding each right now cash flow is very important for example you know Morgan Stanley i believe came out with that whole acronym the brics you know brazil russia india china this was the cash flow is flowing into these developing countries and it was a new trend and it was set in motion a whole period of investment do you see those types of macro trends do you see can you tell us looking at the data that now weve got more institutional money coming in because people talk about it but is it verified is it borne out by the data that stuff a little bit harder with institutions because they dont actually teen to use the block chain like retail you. Hold the coins in your wallet institutions to hold a provider and. Some of it is shielded because they phase we we do custody ownership of those coins and they dont actually move on chain just legal agreements sort of a. Legal way so i think well start to lose some of the signal theyre getting from the from from county got the retail side but institutional stuff is still sort of. In the shadows again. Right where theres a whole shadow Banking System and there is there used to trading in the shadows would be surprising that theyve expanded the shadow to include going by lets see lets get into this idea then that studying the capital flows you can kind of make some good guesses about which way the price is going right so youve been tweeting recently that the bull market is back but this is a trading advised by the way to anyone need to do your own research but this is interesting topic what sort of range do you see. For the next talked well the bull market is back so we got down to 3500. 00 so the you saw this 20000. 00 blow off top 2017 beginning 2018 that is a massive correction that weve had at least 4 times a big point that i remember when i lived through and so your work suggests that that is correction is over and were back to a bull market and so where were we going to go the next 6912 months ok so a lot of the stuff gives all star action ality you know you kind of see where the top is with investors not so happy moving killings around new guys and coming in we got very good clues at the bottom you can see the sort of train reviews who have been in between invest is in you know price sort of reflects that on the markets you know maybe 4 weeks 6 weeks later. We dont really need to get. The price at which its going to trade it we know the direction already we can do of the models of trying to pick the top right like for example you could go 30. 00 time 35. 00 times the cumulative average of the price and they say she picked every single top in the history of the coin in right now i believe theyre sitting around about 50000. 00. But it keeps climbing the longer runs full so its time to we dont. The future we dont know how long was. Generally these things a 4 year cycles if you extract fellated the current cycle with the general 4 year cycle which is kind of like a reason and so what youre getting is these pushes because the mining happening in a few minutes like a bath tub and you just pushing that water and it just sloshes every 4 years thats the kind of the cycle with that we cycle in with them because if you make a piece case. Its about 100000. 00 i think one of the more common sense predictions would be around 135000 based on the timing signature 35. 00. So im looking at around the 102250000 range depending on how long this bull market runs rice imagine every 4 years and then imagine the happening so the protocol biquad every 4 years the output the reward to mining cut in half this is the way that the protocol works and this year are somewhere in may i believe that reward go through 12 and a half to fix the quarter because. And this is talk a little bit about what this means to the supply so the plots being constrained right this is this is significant because when we do this. The inflation rate of bitcoin drops below the inflation rate of go. There becomes you know gold being the Gold Standard of which we have traditionally made money since the. Hundreds of years before that and now weve got this new digital ski city which is more perfect which to continue to be more skilled. And find this very significant like gold is not. Launch a few rockets mine the Asteroid Belt people think its not coming but it is coming right the cost of space launch is going to go 100. 00 times cheaper and that opens up abundant resources so you go from this. City which is not in a logically limited. Its not right now its going its big point is absolute scarcity absolute myth medical game theory to excuse the significant and were in a digital age which goal doesnt go to so many say that if i started gold this refers to the mining output per year and all the gold mines around the world which is roughly 2 percent or so yes thats right ok so theres about 160000. 00 tonnes of gold above ground right now and so that supply is increasing through mining and the mining you know the other factor on the gold side of course is that the cost of mining is goes higher because the gold that is available is getting more costly to access in south africa for example theyre getting down to the lava you know theyre gone down so deep there is that this concept of peak gold which could become a factor for gold but to your point its not absolute scarcity like bitcoin is and yeah its going to put up 66. 00 satellites or 1000 satellites in the satellites are now out there and were going to start to the cost of putting that type of equipment in tatters space is dropping then sure we could actually start mining gold its one and we went even mine go because someones going to figure out how to mine go in the gold market will collapse because its pricing that in india just discovered i believe im just working off my head here i think they just found a 33500 tonne deposit in the last week really yeah its like a huge supply shock coming out of india but anyway to your point so you have mathematically certain scarcity and the having is happening this year and the 4 we are waves that you have observed as a long term observer indicate that this thing is not going to start topping out 100120000 when. I ask you this will we see a transition at some point because primarily from a store of value starts to become a medium of exchange right one of the issues that we have in the big point is that people like the hadal they like to say they dont like to spend it but at some point if i can buy a house for one brick wine im going to do it right so it becomes a medium of exchange as it is on the there you go but thats really you with a bowl so you see high right and people think we need to get to this low of volatility before we use it we will spend it because youre going to spend the money that doesnt go up. So i think that you know these this you know if the coin wins and then that becomes the unit of account what well see is like you know if it currency being the bolus one but like. Its a while away the create way to look at it because we know it was a story about you need to get big and much bigger you know point one 6th of a trillion dollars you know see it is what 90 trillion real estate is 220 trillion gold is 78 trillion exactly it then needs to get above go before we can even stop to think of payments ok i dont know what i think i have a price of almost 400004 exactly get to the gold level and you think that this is certainly within the realm of possible possible then i think well go to wait at least 7 years maybe even 10 years before we can use that as a mainstream unit count that we will spin from. Right so now when you look at these numbers is there a price a point where you would look at it and say you know this is a trend reversal im actually gonna have to revise my my thinking on this that this bull market didnt come in if we got down to some level that would kind of change your thinking what level might that be. I think a lot of it has to do with the sustainability of mining i think the. The price drop. With these numbers but like i think down in the 1000. 00 range there becomes light will start to. The last strongest miner that can keep running right on on that now let me ask you this what it is very pretty steep price or price perceived hash rate this is kind of a philosophical question nobody i think they have multiple pins on this im in a minority opinion on this but to your mind my thought is that. Miners will always speculate always take a speculation that they wont theyre going to make money in the mining space it appeals to people who want to make money theyll always put the masquerade up there because they say theyre going to what they want to make some money. So youre all going to see hash array and then price after work. I think you know. If would just down to a few minus yeah and these non office right its very cheap for say a nation state to take it and i think it was soon price point this thing is not defeat simple against a very large opponent. But the point of which is fists i think is chicken albeit i think that the 2 things are not that with each other and you and you can say one of the other price goes up history goes up it goes down the in price also goes down sounds like youre more like price chrissys hash right which is fine im used to being argued down on this point but thanks so much for being on the kaiser report thank you max pleased to be here and thats going to do it for this edition of the kaiser report with me max kaiser and Stacy Everett well i think our guest will he will join to catch us on twitter its kaiser report its all next on. A. Good number. Of you to. Give. You. A pretty. So some of the to. Go. Because people will put him in his school neutral neutral pool with the issue. Of the supreme. Court. As the e. U. Scrambles to prevent a huge influx of refugees from turkey by bolstering external Border Security the u. N. Condemns greeces decision to reject asylum up again and saying it lacks any legal basis. To endorse and support joe biden president 2 Democratic Candidates drop out of the u. S. President ial race ahead of super tuesday putting their money on establishments joe biden and what seen as a push to run a piece on the. Key evidence is questioning the russian athletes doping saugor as the Sports Arbitration Court the monza limping bosses explain apparently fake signatures involved documents
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