Harper and matt hancock though their places currently are all 100 to one or all over any of them overpriced in your opinion the one of those 3 i would look at with a little bit of seriousness and some attention is it is hank up hes clearly very ambitious and he comes from the old born the former chancellor George Osborne stable a clever man he ran cameron for the leadership in 2000 of the army of was 100 to one no but he was not cyder an oddball was the trainer he got he was the chief strategist and osborne is running hancock its very clear and 2nd secondly hes got David Livingstone the ones once the deputy Prime Minister because some of the utech for the leadership. I never to i thought he might be Prime Minister of some other kids. And that might have happened but anyway hes living to an interesting for instance so theres a bit of establishment support theres a bit of quiet money those logs is not unattractive but you think. Mark karpal no hope of spaces unfortunately yes although i have my own something what sparky about as for mcvey shes brings a bit of ready Something Different i like her to the pub me and might go well aintree but were not unfortunate talking about the grand national here with the. Flat rates so we should keep our eye of a higher court but ours of future but lets look at rory stewart and his people are the surprise packet of the airlie stages of the recently cause much more of a style that may have been expected i love this run because he is in the process of reinventing political discourse the way he goes out and talks to people not just talks listens to people this is very unusual he appears to be unmediated i. E. He hasnt got this team of spin doctors around me piers to be doing it on his own but what i love i. Love about still is hes doing is im way now he is theft of 3 to one my ask a few other small investment yourself and what i have done actually higher than that because ive found that i think even if he doesnt win this time youre winning hell become tory leader proceeds to charity indeed and its important but. I think that hes a very interesting player he is really come from nowhere he wasnt fancy at the start of the contest showed up very well in the early trials take at the rate that the watchers have been very very struck by him lets go full of though the field dont rock hes 30 feet one as well the present that is quite surprising because initially he was regarded as a perhaps are much more live well run of them defeat one where mr rubb campaign at the present moment and mate spark into life i think rob has a major problem hes too young hes too mechanical hes too robotic and above all hes got the Boris Johnson problem i. E. He is he embarrassed of those too hard to tears and he cant really compete with Boris Johnson and so rob is i think will disintegrate quite soon i would. Never i never fancied him i never felt he had a chance i felt that she was overpriced entering the now one of his big backers perhaps as traders as david davis a willful whiten david davis self as opposed to put less younger inexperienced horse dominic rob for 2 reasons one i think davis must be very scarred by 2005 when he started the context contest of us in our favorite to be David Cameron and then he faltered and fell and i think hes still very bruised and secondly i think its because david davis is the nice man dominic rob used to work for him used to be his research or is very gifted intelligent and rob probably made davis but rather better than he really was because he is that good and and so davis i think is doing this out of personal boy thing now lets move on to someone who hasnt taken drugs home say it was the judgment i mean. If he won as well only 4 percent he wants toted theres been one of the favors a bit of an outsider why is that he has a lack of spontaneity everything is very carefully calculated and contrived hes guilty of being a machine politician you would have thought without amazing background son of a bus driver a 1st generation immigrant. When he made a few 1000000 quid in the city going to politics there would have been a bit more to him you know a bit more swagger but everything is so calculated i wish that wasnt the case for some of his position ive been. Emails from the wind was one of the people in the late state of the. He has arguments on immigration the been less prejudices than the the outgoing Prime Minister the arguments about Police Numbers these were from the terms of being a cabinet minister trying to position himself in the late say that the bit as a local reward for for being rate the number of fish hasnt he changed his positions on these conveniently listen more today. Than when he was homesick. 3 way wait until the current predicament i didnt notice him being quite so brave as now hes reshaping his positions to disavow positions he was responsible for years ago home said libyan politician yes but i will have saying is that he has these are long standing positions as far as i can tell and lets move on to what we make on the front or was the top 4 really much by the way i think hes looking good at the moment so jabbered could still i wouldnt i wouldnt rule him out of the contest at this stage ok ok but you havent been him personally in that right now michael gove and in some ways by far the most interesting horse unless theres a contest in the sense that what is backwards is quite interesting but in previous contests but it started off as a very very strong 2nd favorite to johnson he drifted out alarmingly 2025 to one but last couple of days his odds of started to shorten again despite the lasik ok in the lasix 6 revelations. So what no for michael gove is he too clever by half well a clue was my theory about why its been so damaging to him the cocaine issue where is it hasnt others its because the lot of people who are out to take revenge. You need friends in politics and there are a lot of people who want to get rid of who have long standing grudges which they want to repay. One of them will be the friends of mr Boris Johnson who will recall that he was stabbed in the back in the front in the front by even the best way the intended and interesting thing about these 2 great rivals Michael Corballis johnson could be termed as coming from the same stable could the not not quite. The only johnson comes from the Lynton Crosby stable the trainer glinton crosby is the key figure in this contest because hes the best trainer by far its like having a no brand Adar Darby Morris has got the the man of the moment. Brand of this contest instant however both of them come from the same what you might loosely the same ownership they both packed by from the Murdoch Murdoch press them and lets call the owners were center and. Go over who was sense of by murdoch and was with murdoch when he interviewed trump member to couple of years ago something the person says he cant remember indeed worleys is his i think is the cove its very memorable better not to the president and then of course murdoch dispatched his top Political Editor of to the United States to interview trump to get trump to tip Boris Johnson so in other words what youve got here is that Rupert Murdoch and donald trump backing Boris Johnson very strongly and of course Rupert Murdoch and trump a big big breaks it is and of course this brings in my firearm because trumps key political analysis alice as far as britain is concerned is is nigel farage. She takes his briefings from pharrell so much alone once for those with michael gove can he recover from that airless setback of the cain revelations or not in my view go is going to be very hard pressed to recover the way he had positioned himself was as the kind of compromise candidate that but tween the heart break to Boris Johnson and the more moderate rest of the party and gold go had sort of was going to be the all things to all men candid and theres one particular reason why the came of elations hit him is because hes got a lot of enemies who are determined to use that in order to really damage ideally from their point of view destroy him and so the lot of this is about old fuge which are being settled. Join us after the break when pito by now does down the field to his predictions as to who will make it through the final round off and who reach the finishing post at the door of number 10 downing street. We are in a strange situation where everybody is making a lot of noise about military action against iran but nobody in the part of that alliance actually wants to do it so theres no desire for it so do you hope that the run makes a mistake. Somehow and then does it in some kind of confrontation and then the iranians will be forced to come to the table you know begging for some kind of solution on american terms but you know i think that is dreaming thats. What politicians do something to. Put themselves on the line and they get accepted or rejected. So when you want to be president. Or some want to. Have to go right to the press this is what the before 3 in the morning cant be good. Im interested always in the waters about how. Soon. After a breakdown of negotiations president s trump and she may soon again meet to hash out a trade deal the stakes couldnt be higher both sides need a perceived win failure could witness the Global Economy divided into rival blocks and a dual internet war. And you know that and to the it was. You know i didnt understand it and you should know. That i know that my. Welcome back i will talk with peter oborne a long standing observer of conservative leadership contests and someone has been assessing the runnels for the the contest thats going on at the present moment no peter were down to the final 3 in the in the betting as the odds stand the snow was taught there and their lives and forced many people are surprised that shes still single think god so we can see that the number of m. P. s back yes why sandia labs in so short in the betting market i agree with this point youre just making i mean andrea lives is going to live with figo shes been quite a good leader of the house of commons she ran last time and stumbled badly her course in distant form is dreadful only by saying man would immediately write her off and thats proven by the fact that she has funny 5 or 6 or 7 or 8 m. P. s backing her now i look at those odds and i would personally what put her at 50210021 no chance of top of the actually though she is at 8 to one i can understand it doesnt make any sense if you are so me as somebody whos watched betting patterns over the years sometimes you get fake markets its funny money coming for a i think thats funny money i dont know where its from what its about doesnt make any sense to me it could be somebody who supports or works or to make it is doing this in order to make up look much stronger than she actually is walking out of 2 beasts one. Shes that of the woman in the race years the front running woman be conservative m. P. s as it were may be a good idea of a 1000000 female going to the final 2 and secondly of course theres also the prospect all these other people might blow themselves up and she doesnt look like the candidate whos going to self combust i agree you could argue she did she learn shes learned her lessons from from last time and that shes but the calculation here is because shes the heartbreak satiric shes going to leave the 1st possible opportunity shes calculating that Boris Johnson will somehow implode and dominate robert be able to pick up take up the running and then she will come through as the candidate of the of the hard right maybe thats what she thinks lets come to the top 2 in the betting assistant to stone jen hunt a surprise package in many ways in the sense that june early stages of this leadership ris he seems to of gaining ground against that in a way which has surprised many people hasnt surprised me there are 2 if you look at the form book always as you know the racing man the 1st thing to look at there are 2 runners with the best form the 1st one is Boris Johnson who will come to is what he is one of the bigger election and the 2nd one is jeremy hunt hes got the form book as a future Prime Minister hes run a Major Department of state for a long period thats the state of health for 7 years and that was he didnt make any big mess ups he kept it under control of dr straight in our remember them Campaign Promises so youre quite right about Junior Doctors and they were very and he did well you handle that strike saw them off very very good and then the other one was it was the fact that hes now foreign secretary nagels him to promote himself on the International Stage some people say its only succeeded as fallen set because this succeeded but as johns. That may or may not be true and somewhat say will he say that he added succeeded as far in surgery been absolutely useless but be that as it may its good that in the opportunity to mingle with World Leaders he dont trump knows who he is is amazing actually and one up and michael go he up exactly so and its given him a bit of stature is the establishment candidate and thats very important because it means hes got the chancellor of the exchequer hes means hes got a lot of big cabinet heavyweights and hes going to go on attracting support watch as the other candidates fall out as for instance. Gove falls out you will find most of the govt supporters going to hunt i predict hes going to win the can win by quite a large margin in the 1st race the race among the m. P. s thats what looks like glee and totally nonpolitical way of course or perhaps apolitical we could become the royal cos i wouldnt have thought that jeremy hunt was calling the road colors in this race i would. I mean also it wasnt forget that rory stewart was it was you not to search for the 2 princes i cant remember but i certainly think that Boris Johnson went be carrying the row colors level and Michael Michael gove who as you will call disgracefully should have been the end of his political career lete a private conversation here had a privy Council Terms with the queen that i should say no less a little bit it looked absolutely cut and dried no question that that that he is the prime suspect and that is a lab slightly terrible thing to do much worse than the legal substances i would seize and the audience of the favorite the front runner of the man whos no. Odds on in the betting 4 to 6 and the way to sort some books 4 to 7 which is a very short phrase for any horses boss just is here and kneeled on certainty as that place would suggest i dont think he is a nailed on certainty i i think that 4 to 6 is too short i wouldnt get wouldnt be touching it going to his advanced g. s hes one of actions like you you very very few people whose country actually won bigger lections youve done it boriss done it but very rarely happens. And hes a winner and hes had experience of running running london and experiencing government although the thing he was a triumph of the foreign secretary and the weaknesses is not trusted by a great many people. Hated even if you can imagine it boris wins you will find certain figures actually quitting the tory party so lets get the number pushed in a bit of goes every horseless must come to a conclusion and this horse race as you rightly said is a 2 stage is so firstly you have taps for the for the final 2 well i think the Parliamentary Party is likely to pile on behind behind jeremy hunt the foreign secretary with johnson coming a very distant 2nd and then they go to the country that weve month for hustings and unless mr johnson makes a real mess of things hes likely to win among this very selective collection of people who mainly who are ardent brings its ears and quite a lot of them are great admirers of mr johnson at the moment it looks like the final 2 would probably be hunt versus johnson and allows in the country its that is the race which favors jobs well lets just take least to a lets see either one of them becomes Prime Minister who. Jeremy hunt becomes Prime Minister by a surprise mileage is to get past bars on the final street. Something happens arlos them to win the race on the 20 activists paul would be has biggest problem as Prime Minister coming into the constitution one big problem all of them face is brick sees and the issue of doing getting through a deal which mrs may was unable to do because we all know. That europe isnt changed its mind is not as a lot of possibility that mr barly or gentle of. The 40 year retires might see or thank goodness that the law does not bother the jobs of the as well as give the. Generally or above a hand there is an interesting thesis isnt it that actually will say to these bricks it fanatics who are playing war the delusion those simply save you really wont break so youre more likely to get it from me than for mr johnson who is regarded as something without the cat brought in brussels so gently hunts difficult to be negotiating the the brakes. Boris johnson if you becomes Prime Minister hes got a really big problem and parliament has a lot this is exactly right that he can e command a majority in parliament and that takes us on to this very interesting remark that the Prime Minister mrs may said that she wouldnt she wouldnt reserve which she wouldnt quit until such time as she was confident her successor could command a majority in parliament youre not telling me the will of the tory leadership stakes is going to be the outgoing Prime Minister whos just resigned well it could if you taken literally lets assume therefore that mr i think this must have been intended mr johnson. Johnson wins the contest in the country he becomes a tory leader but the Prime Minister says well ive missed and so i cant recommend to the queen my successor. Until such time as i am confident that my successor has emerged can command a majority of the house and then majority cant do so and then the it will become plain that it once youve added up the scots and thats the labor party implied comrie in the the u. P. A. And 20 tories who say were not going to serve on the johnson or vote for him that he counts the house just says no this is a great big roles rick and this is mayor sells off into the sunset. As remains as Prime Minister well and the even of the late Julian Critchley could have thought of a political ending such as such as that sort of what youre saying is there was a possibility that Johnson Mayor just the winner of the race but be deprived in the stewards of exactly as the Prime Minister in consultation with other officials privately get rid of so what youre saying is that the glittering prizes of 10 downing street may be a short lived achievement for one dollar stands absolutely may well be that hugh ever wins actually not just mr johnson is not Prime Minister for very long and if you were to write a political novel about the circumstances of the last few years would you have mothers to come up with a plot which is quite as involved as complex and unlikely as the one which is no unfold i advise against writing novels a real life is much more interesting bit over thank you so much thank you ali. Many harsh races throw up surprises protected when the stakes are high after all thats what keeps bookies in a comfortable living and this case that is a runaway favorite and bought as johnson but the race is still in its very early stages until his high profile launch of yes the joints in the big cat well out of the way living his rivals to make the running and of course the mistakes now hes out and cleared of the field of apparently unstoppable momentum theres many a slip between cup and lip and many a pit for between now and the downing street winning post certainly his opponents believe that is always the live possibility of borders blowing himself up however the biggest question of the leadership stakes applies to all of that unless those who want to deal with europe have to explain how they can succeed where police are mayors failed meanwhile the new dealers have to explain how they can get such a proposition passed the parliament to have a majority across the parties determined to avoid that suck of stance it is precisely that possibility of a new deadlock between the winning toward a candidate and an unimpressed parliament which lead to that old board to float the scenario that the outgoing Prime Minister could hang around until someone else demonstrates they can command a majority of the house of commons is still its inquiry after the race. For the when the to lose the base in the student is perhaps far fetched have a candidate as yet has come up with a cleanable answer to the blacks that dilemma and if the new tory leader of cut discovered a discovered it soon then the one thing that unites us fright just becomes ever more likely they are united in opposing an early general election but that is exactly where they may end up and into a new race with the people rather than the conservative Party Membership choose the next Prime Minister and so for me and all of the show its good bye for now. To get up off the ground. Down. On the sounds of maybe. You wish to go away from your office or. They obviously did a kind of lunge for the web in one semester and then when it happened on trace one. I never saw any contact. Any kind went back to where they were so the answer is back here again 15 feet apart at this point and thats when the officer has got 3. When i was told some seemed wrong all right old rules just dont hold. Me to get to shape out these days comes to educate and gain from it because betrayal. When so many find themselves worlds apart we choose to look for Common Ground the. Tax rises financial Survival Guide stacey lets learn a salad fill out lets say im not sure i get any earthly andris of the fight well street spot thank you for helping. Destroy. Debt slavery. Seal welcome you should all just normal guy called. A member real world will know well you know but what if in your ocean cruise it. Was a mortgage. Holder said zama give up on the morning it was to be with the one that. You would need a new lease of he put some of the little kitchen. Leads you to surround us you know some. Of them wanted something very new believe it or that is which. Dealt with the legacy of the local butcher and the bees and what do. You owe your one with your means lucas the chutzpah to look at your bullshit to look at you look as a lot sure. That everyone. You know would you like the ones. That. The. U. S. Navy sends a 2nd destroyer to decisive to ship fire. And they go for the long after accusing iran of attacking me all the time because. You cant home secretary hans a u. S. Extradition request for Julian Assange so the courts meaning the whistleblower his fate could be decided to hearing on friday. A new alliance of euro skeptic parties in the European Parliament say theyre ready to oppose the extension of anti russian the function of. A warm welcome youre watching starting international with me carrying
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