Drop, there are certain sectors that are impacted, one of the major ones for israel is the tech sector. Another sector um is the private consumption which has uh dropped significantly 26. 9 . And another one, for example, import goods and services uh has dropped by 42. 4 . Then the israely genocidal war effects, theres been a falling demand, the rising costs and the are labor shortages. Of israels economy is in trouble, the regimes onslot on the palestinians in the gaza strip has cost the regime enormously, according to official figures, israels economy shrank by far more than expected in the wake of the onslot with. In gaza, wealth domestic product fell by a little over 19 on annualized basis in the Fourth Quarter of 2023. It was a single worst quarter for the israely economy in terms of gdp per capita since the opening quarter of the covid pandemic early 2020. Experts said the data was much worse than had been expected exports fell by 18. 3 and imports by 42. 4 . This was fueled in part by airlines terminating flights and International Shipping avoiding the red sea. The onslot had sharply curtailed spending, travel and investment at the end of last year. Private spending dropped by 26. 3 , and there had been a 67. 8 slide in investment and fixed assets, especially in residential buildings. Its time now to take a look at some of the social media posts first up, israels gdp shrank almost 20 annualized terms in the final quarter of 2023. The drop was caused in part by the call up of 300 thousand reservists. Okay, we got that, thats the topic of the program. This one says israels gdp contracted by 19. 4 in q4 on annualized basis. Thats about twice. Consensus estimates, thats the key part with this particular entry. Israels Central Bureau of statistics stated that. Now this is the important part, why would israel not be able to make a projection thats even close . Because twice the consensus estimates is nowhere close to the original estimate. Next, gdp plungged 19. 4 , minus 26. 9 drop in private consumption, fixed investment by businesses tumbled by 67. 8 , exports to decline by 18. 3 . Palestinian resistance and of steadfastness hitting israels economy so bad and it wont be able to keep up with that. Pretty much thumbs up, guess in some way why there was such huge gdp contraction. Then we go to this website uh, which was an analysis is said for israels economy, its one more down, another to go, with a question mark, the figures for how much israels gdp. Contracted at the end of 2023 have been shrugged at, as yesterdays newsbullah may not agree. The last point is a pretty important one. Okay, lets uh bring in our guests for this edition of the program. First up, lets see who we have here, georgia romano, he is the associate professor, International Relations and economics at federal university, ufabc. Georgia romano, welcome to economic divide. This steep drop of the israel gdp is uh quite a shocker 1 5th uh 19. 4 . Its double what was predicted and if this is the case and israel continues down its path. The quick question becomes, how will be able to sustain this genocidal war . Netanyahu has rejected the most recent truth proposal for example, and has remained defined and wants to continue this genocidal war. What do you think . Well, only economy, i mean its worth noting that i mean the economy in israel was very bad before the events of october the seconds, um, obviously this isnt going to do any any favers. The extent of this we dont know right now, its obviously done a huge damage already and i think theres more coming, um, i think their economy is doing beyond belief, theres not going to be much investment, theres going to be no tourism, um, and no workers apparently, so i dont know what you do with that, theyve never had normal economy, if they didnt have sugar daddy like america giving them billions of dollars every year, they wouldnt be. Able to self function and um the problem is theyve theyve isolated themselves now from the rest of the world, the only people that are supporting israel are the bish and the american governments. All right, thank you for that, bring in our next guest here, even mckinny joins us, hes an eminent psynologist uh nobel prize nominee also, and hes uh written for the Financial Times and the economist to name few. Welcome to economic divide uh the 19. 4 of fall in the final quarter, the gdp fall was attributed to the scale of the um assault of the genocidal war uh and in particular the impact that it had on the hightech sector which contributes to around 17 to 20 of israels gdp, but even before this onslot our previous guest just mentioned um israels economy was not doing that well, there was a dropping in investments uh and a block of the tech workers uh uh obviously um had to be. Reactivated in order to pursue this legal aggression, do you think that this sector is going to recoop . Well, i dont think that the economic problems will make the great difference, and there will be enough support from the west from United States if it really comes to to critical situation, its too early to really evaluate this this drop in gdp, and i think the main problem in the battlefield will be military and not the. Economics because israel has too many friends and and has too many possibilities to to to resist, it will not be the economics, but of course if it takes long time and it will be a distributive problem inside israel, more people will not defend the palestinians, but defend another government which will have another way to deal with the the problem. Time now for the inf news section of the Program First up, take a look at the us eu sanctions leveled against russia, the twoyear special military operation of russia against ukraine uh has arrived and sanctions were imposed by the us and the eu. In case of the eu, the 13th package of sanctions against russia, what did it entail . Nearly 200 entities and individuals from russia that were banned from traveling to the eu, then came in the us, the most extensive sanctions, targeting more than 500 people, so much for any improvement in ties between russia and the eu or the us. Next up, poverty in argentina is what we picked, that rate is uh a multiple year high in january following the drastic Economic Reforms that were carried out by the newly installed president xavier malay, the share of people in poverty in that country searched to 57. 4 in the period last month, that is the highest since the year 2004, and its up from 44. 7 in the Third Quarter of 2023. The economy of egypt is our next choice, its not doing well, tourism, gas exports and the suis canal revenues, they are all suffering, and the crisis in raffa could actually make things worse, the crisis that israel has imposed because of the genocidal war that is waging against palestinians. Egypts economy has suffered from growing public debt, which is at more than 90 of. Gross domestic product and capital flights and also the currencies fall against the us dollar, and finally this uh was a surprise somewhat uh in terms of the double digit increase and it has to deal deal with gayanas economy, which recorded a gdp growth of 62. 3 for the year 2023, 2022, that is, that is the highest in the world, according to the imf, the 2015 Oil Discovery made guiana, the worlds Fastest Growing economy, we call the worlds highest real gdp growth rate in 2022 and also for the year 2023, good for them. Those were the items we picked for this section, if you have any news in your part of the world with economic flavor. Do send them to us, Contact Information is coming up, um, well in the 1981 hunger striker was initially there was only four people were going to be on it on with b and frank and pan and um and then and die that there would be be replaced so there was ever only ever going to be four on it one time, but in june it was decided to increase the numbers on it, so each monday someone you joined it, not because someone had died but because we bring up the numbers, so i joined on the which was the last one of that four and to join on the 29th of june, um for that time um four people had already had already died. For the indepth section of the program, its one of the steepest gdp declines for israel, almost 20 . The immediate question is whether israel can withstand and to continue this genocidal war, but how did israel get to this point anyways . Lets take a look at some of the major indicators. First up, lets take a look at one of the most important uh factors contributing to this, and that is namely whats called private. Consumption in terms the contribution made to the gdp drop. Now the private consumption has decreased by figure of 26. 9 . Obviously thats more than a quarter of the consumption that is now not part of the economy there in israel, thats from the october to december period. As matter of fact, this was cited as the major contributor to the gdp drop. Next up we move to another sector, obviously theyre all important, but this uh has really contributed to the setback and that is the area of imports and exports in terms of imports, goods and services, the decline there was gosh, thats a lot, negative 42. 4 , and when it comes to exports, you see a decline there of what are we looking at here, negative 18 . All right, so uh, this was impacted significantly due to the actions by the yemini army in the red sea area in solidarity with the palestinians in gaza, so you have to also keep that. In mind in terms of how that has impacted imports and exports. Now the other area that saw a steep contraction was in the investment sector, the impact there is quite high as youre about to see. This obviously impacts the economy in a big way. What do you were looking at here is 67. 8 . Uh, it happened in fixed assets, especially in the residential uh building area and obviously Residential Construction being part of that, which ground to halt. Uh, this emit a short. To both israeli and palestinian workers. Now uh, were going to now take a look at one of the consequences and thats the spending by this cabinet. The spending had to be high, but how high is high . Well, this figure is about to shock you in terms of the time the operational flood took place, 88. 1 are the war costs, mean youre talking from reservis to military spending obviously to. Business closures and bankrupcies, unemployments, well the list is rather long when it comes to this area in terms of the expenses for the cabinet. Then this is whats said to be the major reason and that is the cost of the reservist and calling up of these reservis as well as the lower employee productivity that came as a result of that, which happened in some sectors. When you have 400,00 reservis that were called up, well the. Cost came out to roughly 630 million per week, based on one the reports that amounted to 3. 6 billion per month, thats uh the cost just on one month that had to deal with the reservis being called up. These are reserves that were also pulled out of the economic cycle. So obviously with that figure we can see how deep an impact that has had. Uh lets uh try to see if our guests can break this down a little bit for us. Lets bring them back, we have first Giorgio Romano who rejoins us, Giorgio Romano is an associate professor at the International Relations and economics federal university, ufabc. Georgia romano, welcome back economic divide, um, what where can i start with you on uh israels economic problems . You got the cost of the war, you got the credit downgrade, you got the lack of workers and host of other negative Economic Indicators, too much to mention in one breath, and of course. Add to that red sea tensions and the international uh standing ruined, does israel have any hopes of recovery . I dont see a way back, i think the economy is destroyed beyond. Ignition youre seeing the people of the world are essentially looking at this and saying how is this allowed to happen . It is the devil now for all to see, so youre seeing massive boycots of israeli goods and all kinds of israely services, so its imploding upon itself. Um, the roth of the world is against israel for whats going on, and its disgraceful, but no. I dont see a way back um for israel, i dont see, i dont see new normal for israel, let me put it like that, its very clear that theyre trying to provoke wider wars in the region and uh thats just going to lead to more hostility. Okay, lets find out what our uh next guest thinks eman mckinny rejoins us, hes a eminent cynologist and nobel prize nominee who has written for the Financial Times and the economist he. Kenny, welcome back to the program, i guess there talked about a pretty dark scenario for israel in terms of recovery, if it can even do that, um, you have many different negative Economic Indicators that are impacting israels economy, what are the chances of this recovery and what form you think it will take for israel to actually bounce back, i mean the groundwork is not there right now as we see it, yeah, well the the issue of the Migrant Workers is of course uh uh direct and critical because israel dependent uh paradox. On daily cheap labor of the palestinian sa the west bank and with crossing and i think also on on gaza and for for in the construction and service and what they will do and what theyre already doing is just change the palestinian workers for people from india, sri lanka whatever they will look for other country bangladesh the will look for other countries and because that will create a problem in the you know day today. Economic functioning for they really dependent on this this this cheap labor once they are substituted of course uh at some point this war will of course this phase of the war will end and you have you have another problem in the west bank but it means that even after that there is some kind of deal the palestinian works will not be allowed to go back again because they will be substituted so there will be the structural changes in this and this increases social problems and unemployment in in the west bank of course also, the construction sector in israel has suffered from lack of labor due to military collapse and reduction in palestinian workers. The israely military had called up over 300,00 reservists in the days following the october 7th alexa flood operation and the regime. Immediately barred the entry of at least 170,000 palestinian laborers who made up considerable portion of the construction and agriculture workforce, regime spending mainly on the onslot expenses and compensation for businesses and households jumped by 88. 1 , despite the sharp drop in gdp between october and december, israels economy grew by 2 for the full year, however it had been expected to expand by 3. 5 . Contraction of israels economy was much worse than had been expected and highlights the extent of the hit from the hamas and the onslought in gaza. The regimes Growth Outlook for 2024 now looks likely to post one of its weakest rates on record. About 20 of the israeli workforce was missing from the labor market in october up from 3 before the fighting began. The spike in unemployment reflects the fact that about 900 thousand. People are now either enlisted in the army, unemployed at home, to a flip from settlements where attacks have been concentrated or are unable to work due to the destruction of the work industry. Hello and welcome to the quicktake section, im in this section we will look at the labor force issue in israel and also in consistencies in israels announcement when it comes to its economy. Initially, about 400 thousand israeli reservists were mobilized to go fight in the gaza strip. The number that was reported to be in action, however, was 300,000. Then israel announced that it was subsidizing the salaries of average of more than 200,000 reservists. The other burden that israel has overtaken is the evacuees, 200. 50 thousand israelis and the israeli sponsorship of housing was for more than 120,000. These were israel is evacuated from the northern and southern border areas of occupied palesty. Then there is the issue of restriction of palestinian workers from the israeli workforce, there are inconsistencies in these numbers. One report indicated that 125,00 were restricted, while another said 175,000, but another state indicated that this crisis had led to the loss of approximately 208,000 jobs. Now here is the part that gets confusing, we figure it is best to break this down to see how israels workforce has been impacted. Here is a breakdown of the labor market numbers. 1,275 thousand workers were taken out of total workforce of around 5 million. This amounts to around 25 of the workforce. The official Unemployment Rate 4. 58 annually with a record low of 2. 84 in november 2023. There are other factors as well that are inconsistent with the announcements, but what is for sure is how this genocidal war is coming in a high cost for israel. That does it for this quick take section. Any comments or questions, contact info is coming up. Im mation and ill see you next week. The figures coming out of israel point to economy that is trying to survive. All major Economic Indicators point towards a long road ahead for a possible recovery. The tax sector, israels bright spot, well that has been hit severely from manpower to investment, but like mudis Credit Ratings agency indicated, theres a lack of confidence in israel overall due to an uncertain future, especially with the. Of a war looming over the horizon, that does with this edition of economic device. Thank you so much for tuning in, if you have any comments or questions, especially any critiques, please do send them to us. Contact information is behind me. From the entire team that economic divide, its goodbye, until the next program. This week on expose western broadcast media inactively assert that zionist world planes targeted. Weapons depotes in southern lebanon, whereas they actually struck residential areas. Zinius Mainstream Media misleadingly report that iran warned hisbollah against provoking a fullscale war with zinus israel, whereas the truth is, us media openly disclosed that a widespread israeli entity campaign against hizbullah is currently undesirable for the us, and a recent survey indicated that 90 of lebanese citizens squarely place the blame on the United States of america for zianis israels. Ongoing assaults on lebanon and the gaza strip. Expose, the truth is just a revelation away. Youve seen footage of breaded childrens bodies met my taxper dollars and going to going to bomb those kids so i think we should kill them all if that makes you feel better everybody. Information about palestine abounds on social networks, many times without context. They do not allow us to go deeper and understand all the dimensions of a catastrophe that is dragging on for centuries. Chilean mayor of palace. Origin opens a window to palestine to understand in depth the present cause of the Palestinian People exploring its history and future prospects. Do not miss a window to palestine. The headlines, millions of iranians have headed to the post elect members of the countrys parliament and the assembly of experts. The leader of irans Islamic Revolution says. Turn out on elections will make friends of the nation happy and disappoint the illwishers and also in our headlines a number of palestinian lives lost to the israeli on slot on the gauza strip has topped 3,200 is deadly bombings continue unabated
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