Remember, not all math puns are terrible...just sum. Analyzing residential servicing is a combination of math and psychology. If you were an institution thinking of buying mortgage servicing rights (MSR), or a lender running the numbers on retaining servicing rather than selling it to an aggregator like AmeriHome or Penny Mac, you don’t like hearing the saying, “Marry the house, date the rate.” You’d prefer that the loan stay “on your books” well into the future because you want the monthly cash flow. In 2020 and 2021 origination income was dominant. But in 2022 servicing income won the day for those who owned it. What will happen to servicing in 2023? No one has a crystal ball, but if rates stay in the 5’s or 6’s, loans funded in 2020 and 2021 still stick. Prepayments have plummeted: no one wants to pay off their 2.875 percent loan. Of course, there are numerous parties slicing and dicing the numbers. For example, Black Knight’s MSR Index takes a sample current note rate production portfolio and tracks the MSR performance throughout the month by comparing the current value to the first day of the month value. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by Agile, bringing the mortgage capital markets into a new digital era. From lenders to dealers, Agile is the new way to quote MBS. Listen to an interview with entrepreneur and author Alexandra Nolan on launching and growing a successful business.) Lender and Broker Services and Products
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