we're going to start small today to get a bigger picture of where this country is headed from two really interesting and telling primary races testing the strength of democratic progressives along with any republican who's trying to mimic donald trump's insult-fueled politics. that persona. one in colorado where lauren bobert is fighting accusations that she is an ineffective legislator who is trying to carpet bag her way into a district after almost losing in a close race to a democrat in 2022. the count took so long because it was so close. the other race is here in new york where the member of the squad could be the first to fall to a moderate democrat. the polling shows he's losing. jamal bowman who won in 2020 is now fighting for his political life against democratic moderate, george lattimer. a race being defined by accusations of racism and antisemitism. not to mention money. with $14.5 million in ad spending along from aipac. what has he done to make some suspect he is purposefully committed political suicide? and what are republican voters saying about lauren bobert? joining us now is steve kornacki. and in mount vernon, new york, nbc news correspondent, ali vitali. steve, tell us where the races stand right now? >> let's take a look here. 9:00 eastern tonight, polls will close. might get numbers early. 16th district of new york. bowman being challenged by lattimer. he is the county executive. lattimer is in westchester county. and westchester makes up all of this district. about 94% of all the votes cast tonight are going to come out of westchester county. the other 6% is just from a small part of the bronx here. there's a big political division between each county in this district. bowman actually got a series of primary challenges, several primary challengers ran against him the last time around in 2022. the district was similar to this back then and the dynamic was bowman back then had trouble in westchester. only won it by four points. in the bronx section, he got more than 90% of the vote. it added up to a double digit win district wide. but you could see the vulnerability even before the controversies of the last year or so involving bowman. he already had some serious political issues in the westchester portion of this district. so the westchester county executive, a ton of money has come in against bowman. preexisting vulnerability here. i think that explains the polling. we'll find out if the polling matches up with reality. boebert used to represent this. grand junction, the entire western border with utah. the southern border, all of this. was her district but that district became as you said, very competitive in the 2022 midterm and it's becoming less solidly republican in again. so she said i'm not going to run for re-election there. she's going to move to the fourth congressional district and that's this side. the complete other side of the state. she takes the utah border for the kansas and nebraska border but it's the fourth district where she is now running and boebert, two things to keep in mind here. number one, you see two of them here. there's a lot more than two opponents for her in this primary. it's an open seat primary. she's split opposition. so the indications from the limited polling we have here is it's a very divided, non boebert field here. looks like you've got a bunch of other candidates who are going to take up chunks of the vote, leaving her with her big national profile, national reputation she brought into this district. potentially in a very good position right there. again, colorado's almost always mail-in voting. really, there's one county here. it's vast in terms of land area, but douglas county, just excerpts of denver. douglas county here, probably about half the district. that could tell you right away, if you get douglas quickly, we did in the primary, you might know quickly. >> ali, let's talk first about the boebert race. explain why she's being accused of carpet bagging. why she's moved districts. we are having audio problems. with ali vitali. hopefully the control room can get her up. she's being accused of carpet bagging because she was running in a district that steve said she almost lost. now she's moved over to ken buck's district and there are a lot of voters out there saying that she is ineffective. not there to legislate. she's just there to be a donald trump like politician who's out for controversy. she's had a lot of controversy dog her over the past few years and they want to know what she feels on policy. they also say she wouldn't be there. what is there to say about you not giving up on voters in our district in the future. ali, i tap danced for a moment when we got your audio up. i appreciate that. hope i got it all down as well as you would. >> reporter: you did. >> bowman, this is the race i find truly fascinating. jamal bowman, democratic progressive. rode in on a we've in 2020 about change and equality. he got a lot of support in his home district from a broad coalition of democratic voters including diverse voters and jewish voters. that is all out the window now. what has happened? >> well, we've been watching the politics and the reality on the ground here in the u.s. as foreign policy, specifically what's going on in israel and gaza, has an impact on what's happening here domestically. for bowman, the fact that aipac is putting so much money into this race is something bowman says is fully because of his stance on palestine and defending the palestinian people. but other people and experts i've spoken to in in race say they're pouring that money in because they saw vulnerabilities before. the things they're talking about are for example, the fact bowman earlier this year, pleaded guilty to a misdemeanor for pulling a fire alarm during a controversial vote in congress. his opponent told me it was an inexplicable thing to have done and that's one of the things that motivated latimer to mount this challenge to bowman. now, this has been contentious. toxic, contentious, tense. all these words fit, especially when you know you see clips like this. >> you have stated the pro israel lobbying group aipac quote has shown itself to be a racist organization who is supporting genocide in gaza. that's a quote. do you still stand by the statement and what do you say to jewish members of your district who support the mission? >> yes, i stand by that statement. and we disagree. aipac targets 85% people of color during election season. they have consistently done this. >> organizations have supported, jeffries, meeks, these are all congressmen of color. these individuals are supported by the same people that he says are racist. >> just because you have a few black friends doesn't make you antiracist. >> thank you. >> reporter: we saw bowmaning latimer of racism. he's called israel a settler colonial state and seemingly argued that all jews are responsible for how israel conducts itself in gaza. this is from politico. when you as israel say you represent all jews then behave badly, it opens the question -- toward regular jews who might not have any of the same believes as the israeli government. >> and they wouldn't be alone in that. certainly in a district like this one that has a significant jewish population, that's mart of why this issue has taken on. even in talking with congressman bowman over the weekend, one of the notable shifts he made in the waning days before election day today was saying he was wrong to have denied that sexual violence occurred on october 7th against israeli people by hamas. he explained that reversal to me, not as a reversal, but as an information getting exercise that the u.n. at that point said that sexual violence had occurred and he wasn't going to take the israelis word for it. netanyahu's word for it. instead, he wanted to take the u.n.'s word and that's why he backtracked on the key position that many jewish people in this district heard and could be acting on when they go to the polls today. it's really going to be fascinating and tell a larger story not just about israel gaza politics here, but potentially nationally and certainly also the divide we see in congress on a somewhat regular basis between progressives on this issue and more moderate democrats. >> i want to clarify one point about the situation. i said bowman in 2022 primary only won the westchester portion of this district by four points. the correct thing here is bowman got 52% in the '22 primary. it was bowman at 52%. his opponents combined at 48%. in the bronx, opponents at 9%. so there is a vulnerability. it wasn't that he won by four points over one candidate. it was a combination of candidates also on the ballot. just want to make that clear. >> steve, thank you for the reporting. joining us now, senior adviser at republican legacy. gentlemen, good to have you. max, some people have said bowman is committing purposefully committing political suicide. alienated aipac. fine, conservative. there are a lot of jews that don't stand with aipac. he's also blown off j street, a group he was affiliated with and j street is a more liberal jewish organization. they hosted him on his views where the conflict was solidified and people who say you're representing a district that includes such a big jewish population. you can't blow off both groups. it's political suicide. >> it's pretty obvious and he's pretty cooked in this race for the reason you can't vote your district as an elected official. you can push to be more aggressive or conservative but what you've seen from him is two things that have produced a bad cocktail. one is that he has not voted his district really to the extreme particularly on the issue of israel. the other is that he's come off to his electorate as unseries. he also pulled the fire alarm which has been harmful to him. that's why you see so much of this money pouring in. it's rare to see a successful primary from the middle. not from the left. >> and he's said something very unpopular, which is that the wealthy should not be taxed anymore. broadly, the american public doesn't support that. they want the wealthy to be taxed more. but i wonder more broadly speaking than just this one race if bowman is to lose, does that strike at progressive, democratic politics? she beat back her more moderate challenger in pennsylvania. does this matter in a big way? >> not at all. i think that anyone who thinks it does is going to waste a hell of a lot of money. >> there are a lot of people who think it does. aoc for instance and her and i have some political differences. we've known each other for a long time. aipac, it's been $20 million in aoc's district and she's win by 15, 20 points because she hasn't made the same mistakes bowman has. i think it's one of the reasons why you don't see really an outpouring of other elected officials coming out there and standing with him. you have some. >> bernie sanders, is entire squad. >> you have some big names but you don't see necessarily that same outpouring. so i don't see this truly. i don't see this as an indictment as the strength of progressive politicians. i see it as his ability to hold a political majority in the democratic primary. >> an indictment maybe of extremes to which democrat rs going on the subject of israel? likening all jews to the israeli government saying zionism is fundamentally wrong, calling israel a colonial state. >> this is a very jewish district. >> that's why people think he's committing political suicide. >> one of the most jewish districts in the nation. if you go back to his original primary where he won, part of his strength was actually liberal jews who were moving over. that's how he built that winning coalition. >> who don't fundamentally support israel in all matters, who support the right to exist, but not in line with netanyahu. >> that's probably actually the base of j street. if he had just antagonized that more conservative aipac base, might have had a competitive primary, but it wouldn't look as poorly as it does now. i think when he veered into really assaulting israel's right to exist as a jewish democracy and you know, making this really horrible comparison between what hamas did on october 7th and what israel has continued to do, that didn't spell well amongst the vast majority of jews in the district. >> we have charlie dent here. so sorry i have to keep you waiting. i want to talk about republicans and lauren boebert and what it means. we keep having these conversations about what these candidates mean to the country. donald trump like politicians have not shown the same strength and boebert is one of those politicians facing a challenge from somebody, from a few people. one of them even more to the right of her that democrats are trying to prop up because they think they have a good shot against her. do you think it's significant that somebody like boebert is not sailing her way to a nomination either in her former district or in this would be future district? >> well, what we're seeing obviously is that some of these incendiary lightning rod currents represent politics that turns off a significant part of the electorate and boebert may get lucky simply because she has a crowded, multicandidate primary and she's a well-known figure. so she might slip through this primary. but she was going to have very, a very difficult time winning in the congressional district where she currently represents. it's where i am here in colorado. she is, she couldn't run here because she saw the writing on the wall. and that's why she moved to the other end of the state to run. so, yeah, i think there are real limits to this. also, we should note, too, it's not just in colorado. just next door to utah, you have a senate race where john curtis, a very pragmatic, thoughtful republican, is in commanding position to win the senate race against a trump-backed primary opponent. and so that will be also a good night for team normal if you will. if john curtis prevails as i suspect he will. >> that's for mitt romney's open seat. >> utah is such an interesting place because utah has not fully embraced trump although the senator from the state, senator lee, is very much now a donald trump accolite. >> that's largely the case. also a proxy battle going on in utah where republican establishment is lined up behind the incumbent in her race. then you have somebody on the more far right. i believe supported by senator lee. so you've got a little proxy battle going on there in utah in that house race. as well as in the senate race although as i said, seems like congressman curtis is well positioned to win that primary. that will be good for the governing wing of the party. >> i think it's an interesting moment because there are the more politically polarizing candidates out there facing more moderate candidates. you called the utah race team normal, charlie. i think it's going to be interesting to see where this goes. i might disagree with you, max, about the significance of a bowman loss. i think it says a lot about where the country is on certain issues. we can have the debate later, on the commercial break. still ahead, louisiana's governor asked for it and now he's getting it. why he's welcoming a lawsuit from local families and students challenging the law he just signed to require the ten commandments in every public classroom. plus, fact, i'm going to say pop quiz. pop quiz. who's the only person to have debated both of these men and what is the advice that person has for thursday's debate? 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[ gasps ] this. wow! do you have any ottomans without legs. sure. you'll flip for the poof cart. in the wayborhood, there's a place for all of us. ♪ wayfair. every style. every home. ♪ nine louisiana families have filed a federal lawsuit challenging the state's new law requiring the ten commandments be displayed in all public classrooms. we've been following this story. the lawsuit is welcomed not just by advocates for the separation of church and state, but also by those, by the governor himself. who while he signed this bill into law six days ago, said he welcomed lawsuits. all right, joining us now to talk about this is guad in atlanta. tell us about this lawsuit. >> reporter: katy, so it's nine families, the plaintiffs. reverends, rabbis and pastors who say their first amendment laws violated by this because it violates their right to raise their children in whatever religion they wish. they also say the new law would pressure students into venn raegs or adoption of the scripture adopted by the state. in this case, being christian scripture. they also argue in the lawsuit that it violates a constitutional decision or that it's a supreme court decision from 40 years ago. this was a decision that the supreme court made when 40 years ago, the state of kentucky passed a similar law that required classrooms to post the ten commandments. back then, the supreme court decided that was unconstitutional. it was a violation of the first amendment so this new lawsuit says the law is violating that decision, katy. >> the governor said he welcomed this. why would he say that? >> well, experts are indicating that perhaps the plan is to have this go back to the supreme court. so right now, what the plaintiffs are hoping for is a hearing this summer that could result in an injunction to the law, but that would then begin that long legal process where the governor would like it to go to the supreme court perhaps because then the current justices would take a look at the decision that was made 40 years ago and we know now that we have a majority conservative court so the outcome could be very different from the outcome 40 years ago when they decided that it was unconstitutional to have schools post the ten commandments in their campuses. >> guad, thank you very much. let me try this again. pop quiz hot shot. who's the only person to have debated both donald trump and joe biden and what does that one person have to say about thursday's debate? they have advice and they have a warning. don't go anywhere. e advice and a warning. don't go anywhere. my grandfather's run meyer the hatter for over 75 years now. 99 years old and he'd come five days a week if we let him. shape is great, the color's nice, that's a swell lid for you, baby! finding the exact date on ancestry that our family business was founded, really struck a chord with my grandfather. i've never seen this before. look at it - where has this come from? 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there's no way you can try to refute him fact for fact. >> yeah, they really believe it's not president biden's job to also spend the entire debate trying to provide any kind of realtime fact check because they say if he did that, he wouldn't have time to try to talk about some of the other key issues that he wants to bring up. so the biden team is really trying to point to the moderators saying they hope that they provide some of that, but overall, they say they think americans will be able to watch and take away from just two completely different and competing visions and that's what they're going to rely on here for the president to try to describe what he views as a positive vision for another term in office if he is to win this november and what he will try to cast as a very dark past in terms of prologue for what it could look like if donald trump wins back the white house. so he's going to try to do that. they really feel like they have to walk a fine line because they want president biden to appear like the adult in the room at the end of this. i was told by somebody close to the debate prep process, but at the same time, he is really prepared to come out and have some sharp lines of attack against trump. we expect this will be his most intense line for donald trump while he's standing next to him. four years ago, they had those debates but because of covid, he couldn't spend a lot of time with his advisers. now huddled up for five days at camp david in these intense sessions with a lot of policy experts where they are going through and doing these full mock debates to get a sense of what it will be like thursday night. >> david, what about the trump side of things? how is the conservative media eco sphere anticipating this debate and what are the expectations for donald trump? >> it's really interesting to watch how these two candidates are preparing. joe biden, the president's at camp david. what you would expect intense normal debate prep out of sight. behind closed doors. donald trump has been giving interviews. he's been hosting campaign rallies. not doing much of the traditional craft and to some degree, republicans have been doing president biden an enormous favor by setting expectations extremely low. so much so that former president trump has come out and said he thinks joe biden is a formidable debater. he's not too old, but it doesn't matter. every time the former president tries to up the expectations, his allies lower them once again to the point where all the president has to do, pretty much show up and not fall asleep and he'll surpass what republicans are telling us we're going to see. you know, i think the key for donald trump is to look calm and measured and not constantly interrupt and attack joe biden. what both of these candidates need to do is while pairing attacks and being willing to level their strongest attacks in person, they need to spend most of the debate talking to the viewer. not debating each other, but talking to the viewer. that's how you use these events to get voters on your side and get a good bounce. >> veteran pollster, frank lunts who does the focus group after debates, said the one thing he's learned watching all these debates and watching people watch them is that it's about style over substance, getting in a good line and having it be memorable. it's less about the little details the political world picks apart. more about the manner of the person and the way they behave on that debate stage. we'll see what the style is like certainly along with the substance on thursday night. thank you very much. and rachel maddow and team will have special coverage and analysis of the debate hosted by cnn. watch on thursday beginning at 7:00 p.m. eastern here on msnbc. we are also getting some details about when former president trump could announce his running mate. joining us now from fort pierce, florida, is dasha burns. what are you hearing? >> reporter: so, this is all coming to us just moments ago. the former president according to four sources could announce his vice presidential pick as soon as this week. several sources telling us it could come before thursday night's debate. now, he had said publicly he was going to announce closer to the convention either at the convention or shortly before, but one source telling me there was a shift in the conversation as early as last week to pivot and to do this sooner. to make a slash earlier. they're of course working with some date constraints here. they're looking at the sentencing on july 11th. the republican national convention right after about the debate on thursday. they've been trying to work out, looking at these different options, looking at the pros and cons of when to announce and it seems now they are considering announcing this week again potentially before the debate. we're still working out details about why exactly this decision was made but we are now looking at a very soon knowing who the running mate will be for former president trump. >> thank you. still ahead, donald trump's gag order in new york just got partially rolled back. who he can now talk about and what it can mean for thursday's debate. plus, he's out. wikileaks founder, julian assange, has been released from british prison. what it took to strike a plea deal and avoid prison time here in the united states. prison ti in the united states arthritis pain? 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>> he can talk about any trial witnesses and he can talk about a jury in a global sense. for example, he was under some criticism for saying that 95% of the jury were democrats. those are the kinds of things he can say about the jury now. but there is a different order that remains in place that prohibits him from mentioning juror names or disclosing their business or home addresses. >> identifiable details. >> correct. those remain, that order remains in place. so donald trump cannot for example go out tomorrow and say lisa rubin was a juror in my case. >> but he can go to the debate stage and say the jury was unfair, i thought they were looking at my funny and they knew they were going to convict me from the start because they're from manhattan. >> and their occupational details. we understood during the jury selection process, if we spoke enough about some of the things that came out -- >> can he go into their political donating history? can he say six gave to hillary clinton? is he able to go into that detail? >> it's interesting because some of that information didn't come out at trial, but as you and i know, he's in possession of their names. >> google it. >> theoretically, he could. i think he'd find himself on the opposite side of some chastising but judge merchan who says the jurors remain in danger. he can't talk about courtroom personnel, lawyers in the case, or respective family members of those people or the judge or d.a. that remains in place until the sentencing on july 11th. >> let's talk about judge aileen cannon in south florida. she had another motion to dismiss. >> today's motion is about the mar-a-lago search. the argument that emil made this afternoon is that when the search warrant was executed, the application that the fbi made was improper. that it wasn't specific enough for example. didn't say which rooms they intended to search or what specific documents they were looking for. that it wasn't particular enough and on that ground, the case should be dismissed. he also says they deserve a second hearing called a frank's hearing, where they look at whether or not the agent's affidavit contained what he called intentionally and recklessly misleading omissions. for example, not reminding the magistrate judge who granted the warrant that president trump had the right to review the records that he was alleged to be in unlawful possession of while he was president. >> judge cannon wasn't having much of that. >> you also are interested in the order with which judge aileen cannon is hearing these motions. why is the order so interesting? >> she's got nine motions to dismiss filed by donald trump. currently before her. she's only dispensed with three of them and some are what i would call hybrid motions to dismiss. but they also have other components like motions to suppress evidence. why would you hear a motion on which evidence to suppress, which was the focus of this morning's hearing when you could get rid of the case all together. a more experienced judge or a more prudent judge would think in stages of the case. i want to dispose of all the motions to dismiss then i'll move on to the things that help us get ready for trial. like what evidence is appropriate for the case? >> wouldn't be going over jury instructions if you were going to later dismiss the case. you would want to figure out if you're going to dismiss first then go over the substance. thank you very much. after a legal battle that's lasted more than a decade, julian assange is on his way home to australia. what happened? and prime minister netanyahu's coalition government could be on shaky ground. what just happened in israel to make the likelihood of a general election, one that he could very well lose, potentially something that could happen soon. potentig that could happen so on (vo) if you have graves' disease, your eye symptoms could mean something more. that gritty feeling can't be brushed away. even a little blurry vision can distort things. and something serious may be behind those itchy eyes. up to 50% of people with graves' could develop a different condition called thyroid eye disease, which should be treated by a different doctor. see an expert. find a t-e-d eye specialist at isitted.com (man) every time i needed a new phone, i had to switch carriers... 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[ surprised scream ] don't panic. gift easy with etsy. wikileaks founder, julian assange, has made a deal with the u.s. justice department for his freedom. after 14 years in legal limbo and five years in a british prison, assange has agreed to plead guilty on one count of violating the espionage act. joining us now, nbc news justice reporter, ryan riley. i think the prevailing question i have is why would the doj agree to this plea deal? why would they say you can have your freedom, time served, be on your way? >> i think because the appellate process within england and london had played out for so long. really, you're talking about diminishing returns ultimately when you're imposed. so if they continued to have this fight, there is another hearing scheduled coming up, still in jeopardy whether there could be extradition. because there have a number of things that his team brought up. this idea that you can't -- you can't get someone out of the country if they're subject to the death penalty, now federal prosecutors and doj and the u.s. government would say that wasn't even on the table here. but those are the sort of issues that they are raising and dragging this out as long as they possibly can. it might remind you of another person in legal jeopardy and his strategy here. it is about delay, delay, delay. and what this deal does is lock in a conviction, lock in a five-year term, even if it was served in a british prison rather than in the united states. and sort of put this case behind them. because this was a case that under the obama administration, the justice department chose not to bring forward. it was brought if the trump administration. at which point, you basically, they were essentially cutting their losses at the end of this and putting this issue behind them instead of continuing to go through this process and it could be years potentially and all of that would be credit for time served in the end anyway. so i think they are basically trying to wrap this up and put it behind them. >> ryan riley, thank you very much. and coming up, what just happened in israel today that could force a general election. one that benjamin netanyahu is not likely to win. don't go anywhere. nna hold you forever... ♪ ♪ i'll be there... ♪ ♪ you don't... ♪ ♪ you don't have to worry... ♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ chewy, a citi client, uses citi's financial expertise to help drive its growth and keep its supply chain moving, so more pet parents can get everything they need... right when they need it. keeping more pets, and families, happy. ♪♪ for the love of moving our clients forward. for the love of progress. type 2 diabetes? 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>> that is right. and there is two ultra orthodox parties said they will pull out ever his government if these exceptions are not maintained. but the flip side is if they do that and athe government falls apart and they have to have new elections and a new coalition, they could lose support and end up with less leverage and a weeker negotiating point than they have now. that is the political debate playing outright now in the hours after the supreme court decision. >> what is benjamin netanyahu saying about the war in gaza? he's made some statements regarding hostages and a cease-fire? >> that is right. he is maintaining his position that there is not going to be any end of this war until the ability of hamas to govern and to do offense, to be a military organization are completely eliminated. that is something that has put him at odds with his own military as his defense secretary gallant is in the u.s. right now meeting with secretary austin and other officials. but also he's been equivocating about what kind of a hostage deal he would accept. he said at first while we would take a partial deal for some of the hostages and then resume fighting and then shortly after walked that back and said, no, actually we still stand by the biden proposal for a full cease-fire bringing all of the hostages home and potentially a permanent end to this war but the state department for the first time today katy, said, hamas has rejected that proposal so it is unclear with no major progress in recent weeks in the negotiations, whether there is still any hope left for any kind of a deal that could see this war come to an end in the next few months. >> all right, josh letterman, thank you very much. and that is going to do it for me today. "deadline: white house" starts right now. ♪♪ hi there, everyone. it is 4:00 in the east. with no audience and mics muted and debate scheduled months before debates normally happen. practically every last thing about this first presidential debate as the 2024 presidential election season is unprecedented. it never happened before. the first ever presidential debate between a current president and an ex president will show case a quite literal split screen choice facing the american voter. the president with an agenda that commanded broad support from voters or a president dogged by concern abo

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