Big Japanese companies have agreed in full to union pay demands, a sign that workers could perhaps have pushed a bit harder, but also that wage momentum could encourage a historic policy shift by the Bank of Japan. While hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation - and the risk of upside surprises elsewhere - is pushing back bets on rate cuts in much of the world, there is growing speculation that Japan will end its experiment with negative interest rates next week. Wages are front and centre as a driver of a positive feedback loop reinforcing Japanese spending and confidence.
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