The monetary policy discussion centered on the following considerations:
Leading indicators suggest a return to the prevailing growth trajectory after a recent slowdown in economic activity caused by roadblocks and other disruptions to public order. These indicators include figures from June and July suggesting significant recoveries in ground freight transportation, unregulated energy demand and the consumer confidence index. As a result, the technical staff has revised its growth projection for 2021 upward from 6.5% to 7.5%.
Inflation increased from below 2.0% in the first quarter to 3.30% in May and 3.63% in June. This acceleration was due primarily to shocks in supply, including increases in perishable food prices caused by roadblock-related supply difficulties in some cities, higher inflation on regulated items due to the partial lapse of price relief measures on utility rates, and an increase in fuel prices. External factors, including increased international prices for basic goods and raw materials and higher logistics and maritime transportation costs, accentuated these pressures. Nevertheless, inflation excluding food and regulated items continued at low levels (1.87% in June).