On the 72nd Republic Day, the International Monetary Fund forecast that the Indian economy would grow at 11.5 percent - the only large economy to record double-digit growth. In a hundred days since India has been witness to haemorrhaging of lives, livelihoods and confidence. The hopes of a V-shaped recovery are now stranded between a raging virus and a botched-up vaccination roll out.
The economy is under the long shadow of long COVID - as in the medical condition deleterious effects haunt the economy. In May, a parade of rating agencies as also economists have downgraded India’s growth - the best-case scenario as of now is 9 plus percent GDP growth and the worstcase scenario is 8.2 percent. To appreciate the setback, one must look at the timeline of the slide in economic prospects - where the economy was, where it is and when it could get back to where it was.