This article was revised shortly after publication to reflect an updated forecast from The Aerospace Corporation.
No, you are almost certainly not going to be hit by a 10-story, 23-ton piece of a rocket hurtling back to Earth.
That said, the chances are not zero. Part of China’s largest rocket, the Long March 5B, is tumbling out of control in orbit after launching a section of the country’s new space station last week. The rocket is expected to fall to Earth in what is called “an uncontrolled re-entry” sometime on Saturday or Sunday.
Whether it splashes harmlessly in the ocean or impacts land where people live, why China’s space program let this happen — again — remains unclear. And given China’s planned schedule of launches, more such uncontrolled rocket re-entries in the years to come are possible.