Homs city of. Maybe after the attack the military bombed idlib in northern syria. Bashar alassad says his country is no longer at war, but who is calling the shots in syria, and will the country . Ever see lasting peace . Will the country ever see lasting peace . A brother mourns his sibling who was on the verge of grub lit of graduating from the military academy in homs. What was meant to be a day of celebration in syria turned to tragedy when a drum targeted the ceremony. It is the worst day, a huge tragedy, children, students and my friends, they all died. We attended the ceremony and then we went to greet our relatives. Then there was a massive sound and i woke up here. The defense minister was among the guests in attendance, who left a few moments before the attack. May god grant them solace and blessings, may the martyrs souls rest in peace. The government has blamed what they call terrorist organizations and promised to respond with force. It bombarded the northern idlib region. State television had quoted a Russian Military commander in syria warning of possible attacks. According to the deputy head of the Russian Center for reconciliation and foreign polities, terrorists had planned to take out a series of attacks. The conflict in syria came about 12 years ago. While Bashar Alassad controls most of the country, with the backing of russian and uranian and iranian forces, millions have been displaced, entire cities have been destroyed. The war maybe all but over however the attack in homs shows that the Syrian People are still suffering. Mohammed lets bring in our guests. Alexey khlebnikov, a middle east specialist at the Russian International affairs council, Omer Ozkizilcik who focuses on syria and Joshua Landis from the center for middle east studies at the university of oklahoma. Was this the most coordinated use of drones when it comes to an attack in syria against the government that we have seen, and who might be behind this attack . Joshua there are a number of groups, but this is definitely a major upscaling of the technology being used by the opposition. The opposition has been using drones since 2018. Russia said it had shot down or captured over 200 drones in 2020. This has been a constant effort on the part of the opposition groups in idlib to carry out drone strikes. This is the most damaging strike to the Syrian Regime and it will cause a big change in the way the war is carried out. The Syrian Government is retaliating with tons of force in order to try to stop this. Who could carry it out . There are a number of groups, splinter groups from al qaeda in idlib region. The Syrian Government and those groups have been battling each other for weeks. Two weeks ago, 20 soldiers will were killed. The regime pounded back, just yesterday the government said it had killed 20 soldiers from one of the militias. This has been going on. This is an escalation but a very vague one. Mohammed it was reported that the defense minister had attended the Graduation Ceremony but he left minutes before the attack. This is a major security breach. How big of a blow is this to the Syrian Regime . Joshua it is a very big low and it reminds everybody in syria of the 1979 attack on the aleppo cadets in which 83 cadets were killed by the Muslim Brotherhood. This launched a very serious escalation that led to the hama massacre. It was a devastating escalation, and a civil war was a reprise of that fight. This is a wakeup call for the regime. It could drive the regime to open negotiations with turkey to try to figure out a socially to try to figure out a solution. Or it may lead to more and more fighting and the regime doubling down. Mohammed i saw you reacting to what joshua was saying, i want to get your perspective on if you think an attack this significant could change the dynamic in syria, could it push the Syrian Government into trying to open negotiations with turkey . Alexey it is likely opposition groups but it is a less likely option that it could be iranian. The iranians have a drone base, but i would not say the drone attack is the most deadly attack so far. I am hesitant to make a comparison with the Muslim Brotherhood in the past. I think this is something much different. This shows that there is a security leak inside the regime. There is still intelligence leaking to opposition and likely to radical groups in idlib. The drone attack itself, that it could attack a military ceremony, was to bomb idlib and the targets were not only military target. Civilians died. We have seen there was a small but important Migration Movement beginning in the area, which is something to worry about for turkiye who does not want any new migration. So therefore i think this is significant but i also dont think this would change the balance of power in syria as we know in 2020, turkiye establish a balance of power and prevented a military solution in syria and the killing of thousands of syrians and the mass migration of syrians from idlib. Possible negotiations with turkey, i am quite doubtful of that. I dont think the regime would the open to that. We have seen it being empowered by not nicking any concessions and waiting for other parties to change their position. Mohammed why carry out an attack like this now and what message is being sent by this drone attack . The timing of this was not decided by the attacker. The timing of this was decided by the event planners and the ones who did not prevent the security leak. There was an opportunity and it was used. I think it would be foolish for the Opposition Forces and radical groups to not use such a security leak. But i do think that this attack will most likely not have the major ramifications other than retaliation attacks towards civilian and military targets in idlib. Mohammed followup up on what he was saying when it comes to the retaliatory aspect. The Syrian Government has blamed terrorist organizations supported by known International Parties and promise to respond by force. It has bombarded the northern idlib region which is controlled by the opposition. What will the ramifications be . Alexey we have already heard reports from the Syrian Defense ministry of the shellings, and during today during the day the Russian Air Force has attacked several targets. That is a traditional response, if you look back, that is the traditional way to respond. The drone attacks have been carried out for quite some time. And a lot of them were targeting russian airbases. But the scale of this attack is so largescale, that on the one hand it demonstrates the increased capacity of the military groups and radicals in idlib to target government forces, even russian forces. But on the other hand, it cannot change strategic status quo in the area. So the ramifications, the retaliation from the russian side and the syrian side cannot go out of proportion because if we see an escalation, a large scale offensive towards idlib, that will require coordination or lead to a rift with turkey. For the time being i dont see that as a willing approach. Regardless of what is going on between damascus and kara, damascus, the negotiations are ongoing. It is very complicated. Both sides are tough negotiators. It is very hard to imagine that it will be a quick road. Mohammed i see that omer wants to respond. Go ahead. Omer i think this shows, i agree with him that the conflict in syria is not over. We have a balance of power. Turkey is preventing them, if turkey wants to take actions, russia and u. S. Is preventing them. We have a balance of power in syria that is preventing actions. The drone attack itself shows that all of the reasons which led to the syrian conflict and multiplied the brutality are still present and have not been resolved. Mohammed i am going to dump back to alexey, i want to ask you, you mention the russian forces. Bashar alassad has drawn on military backing from russia in the past. What is russia willing to do at this stage when it comes to continuing to back the Syrian Regime . Alexey i dont think the rationale has changed since 2015. Russia has secured to military bases. That means russia is there to stay. We should not exaggerate or overestimate the russian presence, which is mainly around the air forces and military police and special forces. In the navy of course. And the navy of course. The russian foothold in syria is there to stay and i dont see that expanding or shrinking. It is a balanced weight. As for the future, russia never aimed at growing its military capacity in the country because back in 2015 when russia decided to step in with its air forces, it was Labor Division with iran which provided ground forces. And russia provided cover from the sky. And that is what played out into the hand of damascus helping the Syrian Government to preserve what it had and regain control over the majority of the country. For the time being the Russian Military, i dont see any kind of strategic or tactical change in growing or decreasing capacities. Mohammed joshua, please go ahead. Joshua both of them have talked about the balance of power being stable in syria. But i would underline, we have seen in every sector in syria, there has been great instability in the last few weeks. We are watching right now as turkey takes revenge for the attacks the other day and has killed 2030 people in northeast syria, destroyed a lot of infrastructure, america shot down a turkish drone. We have seen fighting in north aleppo between various groups, we have seen various demonstrations. The poverty, the growing economic despair of syrians in every sector is causing great instability. This kind of violence that we are seeing, whether it is between kurds and arab tribes, people are despairing in syria. It is not a good answer to syria, i think that we are going to see more instability. This is not a stable situation in syria. Mohammed president assad says the country is no longer at war. But everything you have mentioned and the brazen attack like in homs, doesnt that belie that statement . Joshua yes, the major fighting is over. The opposition is no longer it is not going to march to damascus and overthrow assad. But it is extremely unstable. Between sanctions and economic collapse in the region we will see more instability. That is why Arab Governments have pushed to normalize with syria to try to kickstart the economy. But america and others do not want that normalization. They are not going to lift sanctions. The effort to go to china they stopped the talks with the assad regime mohammed lets let joshua finish. Joshua it is quite clear that, the Arab Government normalized with syria because they understand that assad is not leaving what they worry that the situation is getting worse. There will be more refugees, more instability and at a time where Arab Governments in the gulf are trying to write a new future for the arab world and say we are the future, we are growing economically and we will bring stability. But this undercuts that entire message. Omer first of all, there is no progress, this is not due to any kind of american pressure. We know that the u. S. Has the Security Council advisor for middle east and north africa who actually supports the assad regime. Stop and start negotiations is because of the regimes unwillingness to provide for arab demands. The assad regime has not taken any steps. They are fed up, they do not see any counter reaction from the regime and steps taken. And he i think did not talk to the assad regime because they wanted to make peace in syria and wanted to increase no, they talked with the assad regime specifically because they created problems for other arab states and the arab states thought they could resolve the problems by talking. The assad regime has become the most biggest drug producer in the region. It is exporting drugs en masse to the area, it is a huge security problem. We also have the use of the Syrian Refugees by the assad regime to try to change popular opinion. And it worked but the idea that as long as it doesnt make concessions it creates problems for others. That he can make gains is also a continuous crisis in syria. The crisis can only end if we see a political transition. And turkey and 2020 blocked the way for a military solution. We have not seen any real progress. I am not hopeful we will see it anytime soon. Mohammed i saw you reacting and it looked like you wanted to join in. Alexey the normalization between syria and arab states, from their perspective, it doesnt give you any contracts or money. So why should we get anything back for it . As far as i remember, two years ago the resumption of an arab gas line was given a green light but they never started getting it functional to deliver gas and electricity. That was a test for the ability of the states to negotiate and see whether americans can lift sanctions. Plus the u. S. Didnt extend the sanctions, which was related to the earthquake. So from damascus point of view it wishes to see sanctions release. And it may look from the outside that assad or damascus supports the drug producing and trade. But of course, they are lacking money, they have problems with energy and fuel and everything. So many examples in history, when there is an active lack of money, drugs are a convenient tool to fix problems. Be more pragmatic in that sense and be more honest. Mohammed im sorry to interrupt, we are running out of time. I want to go to joshua, we talked about dimensions of the conflict in syria. I want to talk about the humanitarian needs of syrians. You have millions of people who are displaced, millions of refugees who have fled syria, how bad is the situation currently, and is the International Community doing enough . Joshua the International Community is not doing enough to help. The syrian situation is very desperate and that is why we are seeing so many disturbances around the country. And it is going to get worse, the Syrian People are the ponds and trapped in this larger conflict. This clash between russia and the u. S. , iran and saudi arabia, and between various sects within syria. It is going nowhere, it is going down. More and more syrians are leaving, they are continuing to go into love and on and jordan. Instead of reversing rebuilding all of the powers are conspiring to keep syria in ruins. And it is not clear that they are going to change the political dynamic inside syria. We have a frozen situation which is destroying the Syrian People. Mohammed we have about a minute and a half, after 12 years of conflict, is syria ever going to see lasting peace . Joshua i think it will build in that direction because as we are seeing, more and more regional powers are beginning to realize that this effort to overthrow the Syrian Government failed. Turkiye, saudi arabia, the u. S. All trying to overthrow the assad regime. Many of them backed away from it in 2015 when they could have overthrown it but they got spooked by the evolution of the Syrian Opposition to radical groups. And today we have this frozen situation. It is getting worse all the time. Mohammed we have run out of time so we will leave the conversation there. Thanks to our guests, alexey khlebnikov, Omer Ozkizilcik and Joshua Landis. You can see the program again by visiting our website, for further discussion go to our Facebook Page at facebook. Com ajinsidestory, you can join the conversation on x, the handle is ajinsidestory. Goodbye for now. Eric tlozek the lowest place on earth, the dead sea, is slipping away. Its been the site of dramatic biblical stories, and the area is still contested today. David elhayani this is the Promised Land by god to the jewish. Eric for millennia, treasured for its healing powers. Male i have skin issues, and the sea, when youre in it for a couple hours, it almost takes everything away. Female youre flowing. Its feeling wonderful, like, ooh. Eric modernday pilgrims still come to bathe in the