Kosovos fragile piece is once again under strain with sundays shooting of a policeman which led to a siege at a monastery in which three ethnic serb gunmen were killed. There is frequent tension between kosovo and the serb minority in the north. Efforts have so far failed to find a lasting solution. The region has a population of just under 1. 8 million people, but is the focus of big powers, with east and west on opposite sides of kosovos selfdeclared independence in future . We will be discussing all of this and what is next for kosovo with our guests in a few moments. First, this report. Reporter the aftermath of a siege and a monastery in northern kosovo. W one Police Officer and three gunmen were killed. Kosovos Prime Minister says the attack was mastermind in neighboring serbia. We condemn this criminal and terrorist attack. Organized crime with little, financial with political, and Financial Support from belgrade is attacking our country. Reporter serbias president denies any connection. He says the unrest in kosovo is of its leaders own making. The only culprit, although those who help them in the International Community is also responsible, is him. Reporter tension has been rising in the region in recent months after controversial local elections in kosovo. Its population is more than 90 ethnic all banyan, but several northern regions are made up most entirely of ethnic serbs. That led to the election of ethnic albanian mayors and predominantly serbian areas. Talks in brussels have failed through reach any solutions. Both sides are risking prospects of joining the bloc. They will not be a European Future for either kosovo or serbia. Kosovo and serbia are risking to be left behind when others are moving quicker. Reporter the recent violence stems from longrunning animosity between the two sides. Kosovo declared independence in 2008, but serbia considers it a breakaway province. It is recognized by the u. S. And most of the eu. China and russia oppose its independence. In order to prevent more outbreaks of ethnic strikes, pressure is growing on both sides to find a lasting solution. Laura lets bring in our guests now. In belgrade, helena ivanov, serbian Affairs Analyst and associate Research Fellow at the Henry Jackson society. Dan iiazi, head of research at the coast of our center for security studies. And in brussels, suzanne lynch, chief brussels correspondent for politico. A very warm welcome to all of you. Helena, we have the kosovar Prime Minister very quickly pointing the finger here at belgrade, saying armed groups are responsible for the violence in northern kosovo, that they are serbian state backed troops. Are they . Helena i think of course that that remains to be seen. We need to have a proper investigation into who these people are, how did they get the uniforms they were allegedly wearing, how did they get the weapons they have used. In all of these cases whenever we see escalation between kosovo and serbia, the serbian and the kosovo government tend to point fingers to the other side. But i always like to err on the side of caution and say when escalations like these happen, its important to do a proper investigation and really see what actually happened and who is responsible. Laura this is not the first time we have seen such instance of violence in the region. Has it been proven that that has been belgrade involvement . Helena belgrades involvement has been assumed and shown in many different cases. Of course the connections between them is no secret and belgrade tries to maintain as much influence over kosovo as possible. So connection is very clearly there. The question is to what extent, and how strongly is it, and whether the serbian government was directly involved, in which the serbian government continues to deny. We need to wait and see basically. In terms of previous investigations, neither serbia nor kosovo have shown a willingness to be completely fair or transparent. So proper investigations are often lacking in kosovo as well. Laura dan, what evidence does have that there is serbian involvement in this violence in northern kosovo . Dan a couple hours ago the Kosovo Police organized a press conference where they showed the arsenal of weapons and equipment they confiscated. According to the Kosovo Police there was evidence the group was organized by a wellknown member of the criminal underground. There is also a clear connection between him and some elements in the serbian government. The concern is the extent to which the russian elements who are perhaps behind us. One thing i want to note which is very important is the action from the Serbian Orthodox Church in kosovo was immediate when the terrorist action started. The Orthodox Church reacted and made sure to inform the public that its personnel, priests, and they were being held hostage. I think this prevented a potential abuse of the situation for a must for an escalation that perhaps the group expected. Laura suzanne, this is the latest in a string of escalations we have seen in this region in the past year. It really does feel like this volatile region is on a knife says that the moment. Suzanne yes knifes edge at the moment. Suzanne yes. Including elections earlier in the year that were effectively boycotted by the ethnic Serbian Community. Since those elections, and when they tried to install the mayors, weve had very strong reaction from washington and in brussels. Those in the International Community are losing patience with the companies countries. Particularly against the kosovo leadership, asking them to step up more. Traditionally we would have seen a different kind of language coming from washington but we have had strong messaging towards the government. This is going to do no help here for either the kosovo or serbians. About 10 days or so we had the Prime Minister of kosovo in brussels for talks. They did not really lead anywhere in terms of specifics. This is definitely going to be a further setback now an alarm about where things are going to go from here. Laura there has been a fair amount of criticism directed at the Prime Minister and Prime Minister kurti, suggesting he is not being a fair negotiator in this process by the actions he is taken on the ground, one of them installing these ethnic albanian mayors in serb majority areas. Why is he pushing in the way he is . Dan well, we need to remember that Prime Minister kurti ran a Massive Campaign during the National Elections in kosovo that the argument of dialogue and relations between kosovo and serbia was to the detriment of kosovo. He was very critical of the process from the start. Some of his position you can argue is based on his stance and position when he was in opposition. What is important to know is we are in a situation now in kosovo where it seems neither the International Community, mainly the eu and the u. S. , trust the kosovo government, but it also thinks the kosovo government no longer trust the International Community. This is a very adjusting situation. How do we move from this . He is, i think, having a sequencebased action plan to implement the agreement that both parties accepted, although verbally only, in february of this year. The socalled agreement on relations. Fundamental in this is the government to deliver establishment of an association to sit down on this. I think this is the path forward. What the kosovo government expects its him guarantee that moving in that direction to establish this kind of mechanism will be accompanied by concrete steps that brings kosovo closer to the european integration process. Because in the past what has happened is some of the commitments that were offered to kosovo in return for making some steps like establishing there was reluctance he to meet the country halfway in terms of the european integration process. What is important for the country is the there are five new Member States who dont recognize kosovo, but important that the four were members of nato move in the direction of accepting kosovos independence and kosovo has a clear path to membership in nato. Also kosovo apply for membership in the eu. Kosovo is the only one amongst Baltic States without this. We need confidence Building Measures. It is clear kosovo needs to move on establishing the asm. Laura helena, kurti says he will not take the first step in this negotiation process towards normalizing relations until serbia makes a move towards recognizing kosovos independence. Is the president showing any signs of doing that . Helena no. Just last night in his public address following the events we saw last night in kosovo, made it very clear that serbia will not ever recognize kosovo as an independent state. When it comes to serbia making that move, i am not sure we will ever see that move happen. However, what i do think is also very problematic, and that is why we have seen strong messaging towards the kurti government, is kurti is now showing he is unwilling to fulfill the obligations his country accepted back in brussels in 2013. Of course conversations about serbia recognizing kosovo are by no means new, but kosovos predates many of the talks we are hearing now. It is a commitment kosovo took in 2013 and was reiterated in the brussels talks that happened earlier this year. Whether and if at all this kind of association will be formed now pretty much is in the air because kurti made it clear this is unconstitutional and unlawful according to kosovo law, and has basically rejected the latest eu proposal that stipulated the Association Must be created first, then other steps will come into place. That is basically why we are in this deadlock. Serbia refuses to recognize kosovo is independent on one hand, and on the underhand kosovo is unwilling to fulfill the obligation it has and create the municipalities. Laura suzanne, here we are, two sides more and more entrenched, refusing to fudge. These talks have been going on for more than 10 years. Is the eu tiring of this conflict . Suzanne patience is beginning to fray. Given that attention and time to this belgrade dialogue is important but not top of the agenda for most eu Member States. The other issue which has been touched upon already is the fact you is having a huge conversation at the moment about opening up the eu to new members into the countries who want to join the eu are kosovo and serbia and they are on the path to the western ball trick this process takes sometimes decades. It is undoubtably the fact the growing impasse we see between the two sides will have a detrimental effect on that you will have a huge conversation about this in december. Plus heads of state potentially as the serbian leader and kosovo president in spain in early october to talk about the idea of this european community, an organization that will go beyond the eu. This whole discussion about who to allow into the you is front and center. The developments we have to make now in north kosovo are not quite sounding the death now, but will be a major problem for kosovo and serbia as they tried to open different ways to progress into the eu. Laura what about on top of that . As dan mentioned a moment ago, these number of countries within the eu who do not recognize kosovos selfdeclared independence. How much of an obstacle is that, and could they not recognize the independence as a confidence Building Measure to then bring the two sides closer together . Suzanne it is a big issue. It is the element in the room for kosovo. A lot of the time it is because of their own domestic consideration. Spain hasnt issue recognizing kosovo because of its own problem with break array rake away agents. Politicians are working bilaterally with these countries to train convince them to recognize that independence. That is number one. Two, there may be some kind of a halfway house. Kosovo does not going to join the eu anytime soon but it may move towards that. There are a lot of conversations about ukraine, about maybe having a two tiered system, in some parts and not in the other. Those kind of conversations are happening. Kosovo knows that is an issue, they are arguing on a bilateral basis. The other issue, that serbia is less keen on, but a lot of countries in the western balkans have gotten tired waiting to join the eu. So the question is whether serbian people want to join the eu is a live one. Polls show kosovans do want to join the eu. That is the other thing to keep in mind. Laura lets let helena answer that. What feeling is there within serbia to join the eu, or is it more aligned with russia . Dan, we will come back to you in a moment. Helena we conducted research on that and examined the level of prorussian sentiment in serbia as well as the appetite for joining the eu. According to that data, if the referendum was held tomorrow, more serbs would vote against joining the eu, which is extremely problematic because that is the first time we have seen a flip in the vote. That would mean serbia would not enter the eu. When it comes to russia, he support for russia is overwhelming. Over 50 of serbs think russia should be serbias first and foremost Foreign Policy partner. 78 of serbs believe sanctions should not be imposed against russia. So the climate is very much changing. Laura dan, how much is that concern kosovo . This movement of belgrade towards moscow . Dan i think its the relations between serbia and russia are a concern. For the wider region, i think russia wants an instable western balkans and invest on this. But we need to focus on is the new opportunity that has emerged, as suzanne was saying. The European Council president made recently a speech that said the eu should be ready for new members by 2030. This is the unique opportunity our region should not miss and we need to work towards reaching this target. A key issue to reaching this target is the region solves bilateral disputes. In 2018 you adopted a strategy about our region that clearly states no new members will be accepted with outstanding unresolved bilateral disputes. And for kosovo and serbia, or kosovo in general, its clear the path to nato, which is fundamentally important to us, and for the eu goes through dialogue with serbia. Just to be correct, in february this year, Prime Minister kurti and the president both expected a deal the eu offered, the socalled agreement on the path of normalization of relations. Part of this deal is the obligation for kosovo to establish a socalled selfmanagement mechanism for the serbs living in kosovo. I will finish here. I think the government has accepted this obligation. The question is not if you are going to establish this association, but what Kind Association it should be that provides sufficient guarantees for the serbs living in the north to accept and become part of the kosovo society. This is the key question. To move in the direction where this association is accepted for all, it needs to be sequenced anyway where kosovo progresses towards european integration as well. Laura i want to jump in there, because we are talking about this association of serb majority municipalities. It is a key issue in talks at the moment. We are talking about it being accepted about as a way forward. And yet Prime Minister kurti is not setting that up. Why is he not doing that . Dan so, just for the context, in 2013, when the first time this was agreed to. There was another time in 2015 and our Constitutional Court issued a verdict on the constitutionality of this mechanism. And it concluded the establishment of the association of the municipalities is constitutionally ok and it is our legal obligation for kosovo government to fulfill. In this sense it is right and the kosovo government should come forward with a document on how this association should look like. But the key obstacle has been the kind of association we want. We hear from the united states, they say the association should be in the accordance of the kosovo Constitutional Court. But for many serbs in the north, that perhaps is not sufficient. So its fundamental that the discussion away is about the kind of association of the muses it meets the needs of the serbs who lived in kosovo as well as concerns of the kosovo government, which in our case is the idea of how this association can become a potential obstacle for functionality of the state. Taking into consideration the situation in bosnia. Laura helena, just give us an idea of why this association is important, wise at such a Sticking Point. Why is it such a Sticking Point . Why would it benefit serbs living in northern kosovo . Helena they obviously dont want to see kosovo independence and all Things Considered would have preferred kosovo never declare independence. A lot of them have substantial concerns whether their rights would be protected if they were to solely fall within the regulation of the kosovo government. That is where the argument goes, given we are geographically located in this area, and we are the majority in this area, and given the past history of it all, these people believe they have the right to more autonomy and to make decisions for themselves. That was basically the key argument that was presented. Right now in the aftermath of everything we have seen for a lot of these people, the government is unacceptable and they would not feel comfortable living solely under the government and authority of mr. Kurti, which is why i believe this assistance this insistence has to be believed. This is an obligation kosovo has accepted in 2013 also. Laura suzanne, were talking about one issue here. There of course is another issue about the elections, where the albanian ethnic mayors were installed. There will be new elections to replace them, potentially boy coded boycotted or not by the serbs. That is another potential flashpoint. And we have another deadline at the end of this year which we really should be looking towards. That is for an end of serb issued license plates on vehicles. This deadline has already slept because of the tensions and violence at cost. What do with it caused. What do think is going to happen at the end of the year if no headway is made around the negotiating table . Suzanne the events of last week have completely changed the conversation around those two issues. I think we have taken a number of steps backwards. There has been knowns no sign of progress between the countries in the last few days in the aftermath of the latest incident. They will not be questions about that. The kosovo government said they are committed to having new elections but very few details of what those new elections will look like. That is the key issue. They had elections before. The problem was the serbian majority did not participate in them. It all depends on what kind of collection you have. Number two is she said that before the it is outbreak of violence. This does change the dynamics. That was the first kind of sign, the lessons plates, of a reappearance of tensions in the area. Which was the right to have serb number plates for certain communities the earth of north of kosovo. A very important issue. The events of the last week have changed this conversation. Unless there is some progress in the coming weeks before the deadlines, i fancy they will not be much progress on either issue. Laura do you agree to situation has taken steps backwards and there are a number of crucial flashpoints to look forward to at the end of the year . Dan unfortunately, yes. The situation has become very unstable and unpredictable. And unfortunately we in a way predicted this on this very shell. I believe it was me and helena as well with another colleague who discussed the situation. There was not a clear process to produce a solution. I think tensions can just increase even more. We need an urgent return to the dialogue. It is the responsibility of the eu to come forward with a sequencebased action plan. It is the responsibility of the kosovo government to come forward with a proposal on establishing the municipalities. I think it is the responsibility of all political leaders in kosovo and serbia to send the right kind of messages into refrain from destabilizing the communities. The Serbian Community is not just to the north. They are living throughout kosovo. Laura i just want to jump in there, because we have less than one minute left, and helena, i want to know what you think it will take to see a real breakthrough and prevent or violence. Helena i think one of the key things is for the u2 actually find enforcement mechanisms. At this point we have seen rounds and rounds of talks where right now one person just walked out and absolutely said no. Before we had verbal acceptances but nothing really signed. We see another escalation in each is worse than the one before. The eu needs enforcement mechanisms. If the sides are committed to something, unless that what they do what they have to be properly sanctioned. Otherwise we are going into circles and this really i cannot stress this enough it makes everyones lives incredibly difficult. Laura we have to leave our discussion there. Helena ivanov, dan iiazi, and suzanne lynch. Thank you very much for joining us here on inside story. And thank you for watching. You can see the program again any time by visiting our website, aljazeera. Com. And for further discussion go to our facebook page, facebook. Com ajinsidestory. You can also join the conversation on x. Our handle is at ajinsidestory. From me, laura kyle, and the whole team here, bye for now