Last sundays election. Tina parties took nearly two thirds of the vote. Is beingion result called a tectonic shift abroad as well as in austria. Is austrias swing to the right a threat to europe . Thats the question i will be discussing with my guests. It is a pleasure to welcome ulrike herrmann, a journalist who says the swing to the right in austria is not an exception but the norm. All of europe is shifting to the right. With us well is as well is frank hofmann, dws eastern expert. Theays it austria moves to right, paris will respond with a. Tronger core europe finally, great to have Matthew Karnitschnig on the show once again. He has austrian roots and his politicos chief european correspondent. Issays austria plus threat closer integration. I would like to talk first about the causes of last weeks election result. Matthew karnitschnig, let me austrian. You as an mainstream parties have been governing together in the grand coalition in austria for what seems to many voters to be a near eternity. Is this election result really about the issues, or is it in essence a protest by a lot of voters who say they are tired of political business as usual . Matthew i think that is definitely part of it. There has been a lot of frustration with the grand coalition in austria, which, as you say, has been in power a long time 10 years running but really, most of the post word period. That has led to a lot of these policies with the parties dividing up a lot of the spoils between them, and that starts in public housing, for example, but really goes through every part of public life, includes a television stations. A lot of these traditions have traditionally been divvied up between the main parties, so you have this populist party come in, the Freedom Party, and say they want to end these corrupt practices and want to create a level l playing field. That has been a very cogent issue for the traditionally, but the other issue which might have been more powerful this time is the question of foreigners, of refugees, how to deal with that, and in particular, how to deal. Ith islam this is something that gets a lot of austrians blood boiling, the question of islamization, the fear that societies becoming islam is sized society is the cized. Islami to what degree would you put this down to personal issues . Sebastian kurz represents a new model of european politicians, along the lines in some ways of emmanuel macron. What is behind this new model . Frank people in austria were looking for an alternative. He moved on with populist rhetoric, using the refugee crisis in europe about teen of years ago, and i have a feeling that many austrians feel the , not only forl the conservative Peoples Party, but also on the rising populist Freedom Party. Melinda Sebastian Kurz, as other guests have mentioned, took his party distinctly to the right with rhetoric that in some cases echoed what we have heard from the rightwing populists, the Freedom Party, but it is puzzling why were austrians suddenly susceptible to this message . This is a country that is near full, has employment and stood firmly at the side of Angela Merkel as one openes most opening and welcoming country stirring the wave of migration. What is happening . I think austrians always had a strong rightwing movement. In that way, it is not as radical a change as you might think. You have feet of issues that are really burning that people care about, and its all about security. Borders thatabout were suddenly opened that should be closed, that should be controlled, and the other issue that is more important is social security. Has fulle that austria employment, more or less, but many people have the feeling that you have full employment, but wages are not really rising. You have a country with high iswth, but hardly anything reaching the employees. I think that is something the Freedom Party talked about and tried to gain votes. They propose they should be 1200 for everyone who had been for 40 years. That was not addressed by social democrats, so they left the door wide open for the other parties. We know aboutdo the austrians who voted for that Rightwing Party, for the Freedom Party . To what degree are they truly threatened by immigration in any real sense . Are they moving out perhaps on housing, on jobs . Are not most of them and never will, but there is come,ear of what could and i think that is really at the base of this, not just in austria but in other countries. Theres this sense that so many people are coming in and well take our welfare away from us. Our future is uncertain, our childrens future is uncertain. One interesting take away from the austrian election, talking to voters afterwards, they did surveys and found that 2 3 of austrians were pessimistic about the future and thought their children would have a tougher time than they did. This is really one of the classic rereasons people e would vote for a party like the Freedom Party. Socialninrvene, i think democrats did not really come up with alternatives to the election campaign. Austria is not a country perceived as against immigration. Austria is an immigration country and always was. A lot of austrians are coming from the balkans. It is genetic for the society, which means to me it is not that easy to say that are just against austrians or immigrants. Melinda lets take a closer look by comparing the younger politicians i mentioned at the outset of the program. The austrian result came as a surprise to many europeans who thought that the French Election had stopped the rightwing drift in europe in its tracks. In fact, vienna and paris are taking very different approaches when it comes to migration, so lets take a look. They are both young, ambitious, and smart. Austriaas designated chancell, anand frenrz president emmanuel macron. Both have promised to bring a breath of fresh air and have started their own political movements. Tout their approaches rightwing populism are very different. Owes his rise to the refugee crisis. With his hardline against migrants and isolationist policies, he has coopted the Biggest Campaign issue of rightwing populists, and that strategy allowed his party to emerge victorious in the election. Emmanuel macron, on the other hand, won the president ial election in france with a decidedly proeurope agenda that clearly defined him in opposition to the rightwing populists of the front national. Inclusion or exclusion what is the best way to keep rightwing populists in check . Melinda let me put the inclusion versus exclusion question to you because it is one that is being debated very adamantly here in germany. Rised politicians take the of the right as a reflection of legitimate concerns about the destabilizing effects of migration and adjust their policies accordingly, or should they in essence draw a red line . Macron,if you look at he seemingly true a red line, but in reality, he is also against taking refugees. Different, ande he is, but nonetheless, when it comes to immigration, he is catering to the vote of let than of le pen. I think that is the same as the vote in austria. You should not be too optimistic about macron, i think, because if he does not succeed in bringing Economic Growth to france, and i think he will not succeed, then this next election, we will have le pen. This is the last chance for europe. We should not be too carefree. Melinda the possibility that frances own Rightwing Party might come roaring back in macrons reforms are not accepted by the population. It is unclear what form the next government in austria will take, but we could well see this Rightwing Party, the Freedom Party entering a governing Coalition Led by Sebastian Kurz and his conservative party, the Peoples Party. If that occurs, will he be able bycontain the Freedom Party essentially adjusting the bit to the right, or might it wind up coopting him rather than the reverse . Succeed i think he will because of the amazing support he had in the selection and that he has with his own party right now because he really did refurbish this party a around hs owown person and changed the nae given to the Sebastian Kurz list and so forth, so i think he has an advantage there and also in that generally his ratings in the population are extremely high, much harder much higher than his counterparts in the Freedom Party. I think he has that advantage. On the other hand, the Freedom Party has been in a government before, andparty during that time, the Peoples Party really managed to put the Freedom Party in a box, and it led to that partys destruction, so theres concern this kind of thing could happen again. Has already said hes not going to follow the lead of the Peoples Party or dance to their tune. Hes going to stand up for his issues, and we will see. You whatcan i just ask are his issues . He claims to have changed his stripes and saying his useful contacts to neonazis were simply for use. Has he moderated, or is he a wolf in sheeplike clothing . Matthew i would say the latter, definitely. His use of antisemitic innuendo , for example, in Campaign Events and debates, theres no question that this party is part of the far right, maybe even the ultra far right. A lot of the leaders of the party were members of the nationalist fraternities in austria that have a much more german nationalist tendency. I dont think theres any question about where this party stands, but they have tried to broaden their appeal with things that you might normally associate with the social democratic party, by suggesting more welfare payments f for the elderly, more help for workers, more education support, and that really is the core of their program, and these are things that are not that controversial. At the same time, bring a lot of people in. Melinda if we think back to the year 2000, that was also a moment when the Rightwing Party entered into a coalition with the conservatives. Impost sanctions on austria. Now, theres barely a peep. Now social democrats and austria have not ruled out themselves entering a coalition. Whats going on . I have a feeling the Freedom Party moved more to the center. There were a few arguments and tv discussions were also antisimmons is a world lying under the surface, but i think they were eager to leave it there and not bring it up as before. I think this is the biggest chance forward europe has now to change the system, to change the block towards more integration to the societies that want to come forward. Ulrike i think the change came in europe because the sanctions against the First Coalition between the Peoples Party and decided by the European Commission proved to be a disaster. Instead, nothing changed in austria and everyone was more in favor of the Freedom Party than before because they are appealing their country was attacked by europe. This time, people do not discuss sanctions anymore because it was obvious the party was strengthened by the aggressive act and not subdued. The keep hoping everything will be fine in four years. The coalition again does not bring any results for the voters. Its just a lot of talk about enemies and refugees, but nothing happens. Social democrats become very strong as an Opposition Party after four years. I think that is the hope in europe. Melinda given the fact that concern about immigration in and to auststria in particular are by no means limited concerns. Sebastian kurz would like to limit the number of refugees admitted 20, a de facto revocation of the countrys asylum law, pushing for permanent border checks around austria, a clear break with europes open borders policy. Groups inathetic to poland a and hunry a and their antimigration policies. That could make a Fair Distribution of immigrants in the eueuropean unionon moree difficult. Kurz and the austrian Freedom Party see the autocratic Vladimir Putin mostly as a trade partner, so they want to ease sanctions against russia and allow more popular referendums, possibly on the euro and the eu itself. Does the election in austria represent a setback in europe . Let me get you to duel it out now. Your Opening Statements indicated rather contradictory views on what this means for the eu going forward. Saw the potential for strengthening a court europe, and you said you thought the austrian vote could halt the process of integration and halt mr. Macrons push. Perhaps matthew goes first with that more pessimistic view. It is pessimistic depending on where you stand on the issue. I think a lot of people even in germany would say they like the eu as it is. They like the free market in the euro and want to keep things as they are. What they do not one is to shift more sovereignty to brussels. This would be the position also of the Peoples Party in austria andbastian kurzs party also the Freedom Party. Its also the position of most of the Central European countries if not all of them who are really enjoying the freedom that they won after the berlin wall fell down in 1989, and they are not as eager to shift their societies into this larger sort and dopean amalgamation not want a more federal europe. They like what they are getting now, and i think that austrian election could strengthen that because austria is a net payer, for example, into the eu budget. It is a western european country, and i think with Sebastian Kurz, who is becoming a very prominent figure in european politics as well because of his recent success and all the rest of it, i think they could have somebody who is taking this message to brussels, so you can see this block, if you will, acting as a kind of break to the kind of macron visions we have seen propagated recently. One last point i do not even think that what macron wants, i do not think germany will be able to go along with it in the end. I dont think Angela Merkel will be able to go along with it in the end because i think it is very controversial within her own conservative bloc, especially in bavaria where the sister party to merkels party, they do not want to shift anything to brussels. Please address the arguments you have just heard, but also, couldnt we argue that austriria, if it positions itsef european those eastern centrall countries, might even play a mediating role that might even allow for t the integration of these blocks . Frank a lot of these countries will have to change their , and thisoward europe year necessity in the block. Feeling that the reaction to elections in austria will be that we will have more europe and a couple of years time. The group will integrate further. Austrias most important neighbor, hungary, for example because the Prime Minister is arguing with less europe rather than with more europe. When hungary was a candidate for the europe, a lot of people invested and got credit in Euro Currency and then had problems paying back their mortgage. He won a lot of votes and won the latest election. A group of core European Countries will create the kind of extreme where others will follow or we had a situation where for a long time we have different speeds. Of differentidea speeds has been debated for really be can there different speeds on immigration . The European Court of justice, for example, has just rejected a challenge from hungary and on quarters. If austria tries to balk at taking more refugees, might it also wind up getting a reprimand . Withe yes, but i agree matthew. I think the issue is decided in the sense that no country in all of e europe wants to take more refugees. Any european country no matter which does not want to have more integration towards europe. That is even true of germany and also of the netherlands, of belgium. What will happen is, of course, the one thing is the programmatic idea of europe. That does not have a chance at the moment. On the other hand is the necessity of working together. For example, if there was a recession, and economic crisis, suddenly, everyone would start investing on a european scale. Macron pushes would become a reality but not because you believe in a great europe. That is not necessary. Not visiondriven but pragmatic. Were getting close to the end of our time. Let me ask you to come back to the title question we posed at the beginning. To use the the austrian election resulting in a possible coalition as a threat to europe . Threat i think it is a to this idea that europe needs to be much more closely integrated than it is. I think it will empower the macron vision and we will move on to a more integrated europe. Other parties will copy the idea. Very much tok you all of you for being with us, and thanks to all of you for tuning in. See you soon. This weekek, global l 3000 focuses on democracy. Democracy, it seems, is on the decline. Just last year, 67 countries saw setbacks to their citizens Civil Liberties and political rights. The biggest threats to a democratic system are autocrats and populists. Populists insist they speak for the people. Only they, they say, k know wht is truly right and wrong. They meet tricky questions with
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