Coronavirus in very creative ways. In texas, earlier this spring, a local court there held jury selection over zoom. The court posted the video to youtube. It worked out pretty well with the judge helping some of the older people with the technology. Thank youall for participating in your jury service remotely. This is the first time this is happening in texas and maybe the country as far as we know. So you can get judge the on zoom. You can get jurors on zoom. You can get lawyers on zoom, but what you cant get are law students. The American Bar Association restricts law schools from teaching virtually and that has led students all over the nation to give up on law school at least for now. Marin is a pretty good window or has one into people are studying for law school. His company test max makes a study app and hes talked to some of those students so you did a poll of these students, and you found about a third of them were thinking about quitting. Yeah, thats correct. So we did a survey with our users, our one l users and bar max users so across the spectrum from prelaw to law students and recent graduates to get a sense of what they were thinking with the forced chance litransition and harvard law students this will remain online because obviously, i think students are reconsidering the Value Proposition of 50,000 a year for zoom videos. Yes, i would imagine so. Ill get to that in a second. Says. Me through what the bar i assume this is different sta w school over a video link. Historically, that has been the case. There is a rule that they have, i want to say its rule 306 where in 46 of the states, you cannot sit for the bar exam if you got your Legal Education online. Now, obviously, we would expect that rule to be at least temporarily suspended if this persists because obviously, its not fair to students attending, you know, Harvard Law School for example in the top schools to say you cant sit for the bar exam but its also a good question that why is coronavirus the reason this is now being considered . You know, a lot of students dont have the luxury of putting their live the on hold three years and attending in person and historically, what that meant is they have taken out of the market. Hopefully, as one of the longterm effects of this pandemic, online law schools will become an option for students that havent had the luxuries of putting their lives on hold for three years. It does seem possible to teach law online just as you could engineering or mathematics or chemistry. Maybe a med student, thats not such a great idea because there is hands on aspect to it but it could be done and we could adapt to it. Oh, absolutely. Just to give you a sense with our bar exam, we dont use any video. So this idea that Online Education is zoom videos i think is another thing that we really need to start to address. Its much more than that. And you know, thankfully, it seems like schools understand that. Harvard law school announced this fall its going to be a reimagined online experience that extends far beyond zoom. We had Ronald Sullivan join our pod cast to talk about that and it seems like they are taking it very seriously where it will be much more than zoom. Stuff with medical, you think about a. R. And v. R. , the possibilities are even there in those fields azts technology continues to evolve. When you say Harvard Law School and you went to Harvard Law School but i think of John Houseman from the paper chase and these scenes where he has the students stand up and state their name and state the case and what not. Yet, thats, you know, i think what students would want. You mentioned not only does the bar not want students to take a video class, the students dont either because they want that experience. First overalf all, is that expee accurate from the movies and i imagine students dont want to pay 50,000 a year to talk to their ipad. One, that experience is somewhat accurate. I wouldnt say they intentionally try to embarrass you but they are very active calling on you. I had the luxury of taking bankruptcy in the fall of 2008 when Elizabeth Warren would call on you every day guaranteed. You definitely need to be on your toes. Thats one thing. The method of being able to maintain that in a remote setting is really important because of that dialogue in terms of how it changes the way you think, which is very beneficial to law students regardless of how they decide to spend their careers post graduation, and, you know, i think that zoom has that ability. The larger issue is the networking part of it. The study groups and getting beyond just zoom for those things. I attended Harvard Law School for the network and you dont want to lose that. Because obviously, there is strength in numbers and you can learn a lot from your classmates. Speaking of numbers, what does this do, lets say, nobody knows how long the pandemic will last but its certainly not ending, thats clearly for sure. Lets say a third of law students say im going to put this on hold or quit and find something else, what does that do a couple years down the road as far as the number of lawyers . Will there be a shortage . There a glut and this will bring it back to normal . I think youre definitely going to see if this continues and we dont address some of these underlying issues, i think its natural to expect the number of graduating law schools to decrease. If you actually see a transition where we take online law schools seriously, i think you would actually see the opposite where you would open that education path to a lot of students that have been traditionally priced out of it or not priced out of it but also, you know, their life doesnt conveniently allow them to pursue it. So i think as you look at what is happening now, for example, Harvard Law School allowed students to defer because of it being online but they have said if you defer, youre not gau guaranteed to come next year, might be the year after that. They will be able to fill their class this year and i think other top law schools will have the same luxury but as you start going down the rankings and you start getting to schools that dont have wait lists and they cant fill enrollments, what is going to happen to those law schools . I think that is something that youll probably start to see that the top schools will remain but i think some of these lower ranked law schools are going to start to have to contemplate the value of an in person 180,000 put my life on hold for three years education. That makes sense and i know colleges are struggling with that all over the nation. I appreciate it. I have no further questions and you may step down. Always wanted to say that. All right. How long will the pandemic last . Is there someway of predicting that . Well tal suspended h 1 b visa, thats the permit to live and work in the United States given to a select few people mostly in the high tech industries, mostly people with advanced degrees. President trump worries visa holders might be taking jobs away from americans. Each week we hear about millions of our friends and neighbors filing firsttime jobless claims. Why one would ask would we import people to fill the very few open jobs we have . Lets put that question to one of the top immigration lawyers in the country. Julie pearl is the former Deputy Attorney general of california. She founded her firm with the former head of ins so we know julie knows what shes talking about. Thanks for talking to us. On the face of it, it seems like a reasonable move. There are a limited number of jobs that number is shrinking. Why would we then import talent . Right. Because this particular talent contributes disproportionately to our economy and lots of studies show that they create jobs. They do not take them away, and that the jobs they fill cannot be filled by u. S. Workers. President trump often thinks of the zero sum game. You can see it in a lot of things he says. So youre saying its not a one for one, that the one job that might have been replaced is one for one that the jobs are being created. Do we have any idea how many jobs . Well, different studies. There is some showing that they for every h 1 b worker, their Economic Contribution take one to five u. S. Jobs. I put up the challenge, if its about jobs, lets make it about jobs. So say for every h 1 b worker that nine u. S. Worker haves to get jobs. Thats what our typical client we represent Huge Companies in Silicon Valley and throughout the world and none of them employ more than, you know, a few percent of their work force in that status. Its 2. 9 of u. S. Workers. Instead of pushing all that compa companys jobs ashore, lets make sure the companies with the h and l and other visas create 90 of the jobs for u. S. Workers. And the way i understand h 1 b to work is its used when that company cannot find the talent in america. Is that right . Correct. In fact, the average employer in the u. S. Has to in addition to searching and all the usual things for the talent, they have to pay about 20,000 in government and legal and other fees in the course of a couple three years just to get that person work authorized. Why would they do that if they could find u. S. Talent . We have the counter argument and there is news stories about people who say they have to replace they have to train their replacements, that there have been situations in which people felt as if they were losing their jobs to h 1 b visas. Yeah, there have often been you know, as with anything else on a bill curve, there is a couple of companies. I saw that episode on the news. Those are very much the out liars. Like i said, are very good Data Available from Companies Like ours. Right now i know of a company that just went to h 1 b as a lottery. Remember, they had to prove to department of labor satisfaction they were paying what they would pay u. S. Workers. H 1 b workers get paid more on average. After that, two of their top people were not able to even be selected in the lottery to apply. They moved 200 jobs to india that used to belong to u. S. Workers all because they really needed these two special ones. Thats what is about the h 1 b visas. Its a different visa but i have an executive that created a company here in Silicon Valley after going to college in america and especially told to leave and take his company with him. Ive seen that situation, as well. Other countries, the wall street journal for instance ran an editorial saying this was a gift to china. The chinese talent that would have come here to work on they president gihad given a gift to china. Its interesting. I say hes giving a gift to china, canada, im a dual canadian citizen so im happy with that, australia, anyplace people want to be. Were already because of covid seeing employering more willing to employ people anywhere. That was already happening. We did a survey after a webinar at our firm and 86 of managers said they have proven they can work from anywhere. We were starting to lose but yes, when you say china, i think about the chinese scientists who in the 1950s left because of mccarthyism and he left for the Manhattan Project and some say china had 15 years of nuclear science. So, yeah, big gift. In 2009 canada was very smart in that the in order to have a job in an h 1 b visa if you lose your job say to recession or covid or what not, you also lose your visa. You cant stay. Canada was very smart and actually started appealing to people here in Silicon Valley, come to canada. We know you dont have a job if you can prove you can sustain yourself in canada, bring yourself and your phd to canada and when things get better, well find a job for you. Very smart. Our Technology Company has somebody who qualified on the point system there, and australia has one, too and there is talk right now act basing h 1 b salies on the highest bidder and would rule out bio science and the phds dont make as much as the mbas. The point system to your education, experience, things that matter whether a job in need, those are really wonderful systems. You and your associates worked in politics, so this is a bit of a political question. Apples tim cook, the president listens to tim cook objected to this idea, google objected to it, as well. Whats your prediction . Do you think the suspension will stick . Sadly, even if it will be challenged in court and certain things like this morning we got news of the singapore h 1 b 1 that consulate is not even honoring those and thats by treaty. Some things will be tweaked but just having sent the message talent is not welcome here is already having an impact. So i think there will be blow back from other countries. I think its not going to stick. I hope it doesnt stick beyondi julie pearl is one of the top immigration lawyers in the country. Thank you for being with us this morning to talk about h 1 b visas and press here will be right back. Press here. September 12th, thats when my next guest says things will be relatively back to normal. How he came up with that date, i do not know but john kelly looked at the numbers. The foot traffic like this barbecue restaurant on fathers day and willing to make the predippr prediction by september 12th, Retail Locations will match 2019 nationwide before the pandemic. John kelly is ceo of san franciscobased zen reached. John, are you extrapolating that number to know and using it to predict where we are because you have no history to compare this to. How did you come up with september 12th. Its basically an extrapolation of the current linear trend of return traffic to the retail sector. Its what weve seen is the lowest point of retail was april 18th across the nation when we were down about 75 of historical averages. Huge drops. From that point, weve seen a steady increase in traffic. Were now as a nation about 51 over historical average. If you take that trend line and extrapolate out, it puts us to september 12th. You use data to predict things i barely pass statistics in college, although, i did. I did pass statistics. If you extrapolate something, you cant account for a black swan event and this whole pandemic is a black swan event, right . Thats correct. This is a linear trend were looking at. It is not huge opportunity for improvement and what might bed a additional lockdowns for different jurisdictions. Youve been playing around with the september 2nd. What sort of data comes in when youre able to move that prediction date by just a couple days . Yeah, its essentially just what we look at as a sevenday rolling average of traffic and Retail Locations this year comparing it to the sevenday rolling average of last year. And the linear trajectory two weeks ago, even ten days ago was putting us a little earlier but what we saw was there was not the traditional beginning of summer bump associated with memorial day weekend. The traffic continued to grow but not at the same spike levels as last year so the projection moves out a few more days. Were talking about specifically retail foot traffic in the sense that, you know, if you looked at graphs of how i spend my money, the retail in person dropped off a cliff on the other hand, i have deliveries coming two or three times a day but youre looking specifically at retail foot traffic . Were looking at the offline events only, thats correct. Its not taking into consideration e commerce. Now as you try to predict the future for retail, which is after all part of your job, you do need to account for that lost revenue, perhaps not lost revenue but revenue that has moved to a different place because i have discovered, you know, Online Grocery shopping. I never did it before. Why would i go back to the Grocery Store after ive now learned this evening if things get safer i may have permanently changed the way that i shop for a whole host of things. Thats correct. And this is this prediction is essentially just the as i said before, the extrapolation of the in store traffic return rates. It is not a prediction of spend. Its not a prediction of e commerce or commerce as a whole. What it does show us, though, is the differences in traffic patterns. One an in this can antidote is e orders had a dramatic effect on the in store traffic as weve seen in the data. The lifting of the orders has not translated into a immediate return in in store traffic. Georgia for example as the state had lockdown orders i think in place for three weeks, it took them 5 five days before they got back to over 50 of historical average traffic, and right now they are at 67 . So the rebound has not been a v curve. Its a slow increase over time, not this immediate rebound. Well, i think that goes to that point of i mean, some people are not returning to stasta stores because of fear. The government says you can go out, doesnt necessarily mean you want to go out. Some people are discovering alternative ways of getting goods and services. There are people very reluctant to go online to buy things who are now buying things regularly online. Thats correct. There is a strong shift. You can see it in the food delivery space in particular which has boomed during this covid crisis. Restaurants have had to adapt from the in store Dining Experience to focus more on delivery and in store pickup. A few restaurants are moving tables outside to accommodate the concern of patrons. There has been a dramatic adjustment in the retail environment overall on how we can accommodate this. John, as we talk about these retail numbers and foot traffic, how are you getting your numbers . How do you know how many people walk into the pay less shoe store . Thats a Software Layer on top of the local wifi which essentially acts as a sensor. So the number of devices that come in, your cell phone is essentially pinging for wifi Service Every 30 seconds. We track the number of unique cell phone pings that we get or could be cell phone or laptop devices and then we track that over time. Thats essentially a proxy for foot traffic. And youre not necessarily attaching to the phone, just so people understand the privacy aspect for this and the phone is not connecting necessarily but the w phone is there, thats how youre clicking the numbers . Correct, correct. The wifi ping is essentially an indication of an in store walk in. We have proprietorry algorithm whether someone is in the store versus walking in front of the store. We also enable a guest why pif experience so you as a consumer can log into the wifi. If youre logged in, we know something about you. If youve never logged in, you look like device 123 to us. September 12th, john i looked on the calendar. That will be a friday. How about we see you back here sunday morning, september 13th or 14th maybe it is to see if those predictions are correct. You willing to do that . Absolutely. Very good. John kelly is the ceo of sevzen reach. We appreciate you being with us and press here will be right back. Thats our show for this week. My thanks to my guests and thank you for making us part of your sunday morning. Lauren manning hello, and welcome to living courageously. The bible says all praise to god, the father of our lord jesus christ, who has given us every kind of spiritual blessing
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