Hes at 253. President trump is at 214, although you can see 71 electoral votes still undecided. 24 hours ago we spoke with paul mitchell, Vice President of Political Data of a data firm based in sacramento. I spoke with i all night long and i know you didnt get much sleep. So thanks for joining us, paul. Thanks for having me. We went to bed with the president looking good. We woke up with things tilting bidens way. Summarize the big picture for us right now. Its kind of two worlds. Were shocked that this is getting so close, that weve been through this process that, you know, this whole president ial race seems to have been going on ever since trump got elected is going to come down to potentially one electoral vote. On the other hand, for the last few months weve known that the most likely Tipping Point states are going to be michigan, wisconsin, and pennsylvania, and its turning out to be that. That essentially whoever won two out of those three states was really in the position to win this overall contest. Uhhuh, uhhuh. Ok. So can i just press you to give me a probability right now on a trump win versus the biden win . Right now were looking at about an 85 probability of a biden win. I mentioned that pollsters and forecasters all knew it could come down to this scenario with the last states and the ballots could take days. Still, are you surprised . I mean, yeah. I think you have to be surprised. This is a, you know, a really an amazing election cycle with it coming down like this to the wire. These kind of close races are rare, even in congressional races and local races. When they happen it can be pretty shocking to see an entire race be decided by these last votes that are counted. But the fact is that our countrys really polarized and look to get this election over with and behind us and start to bring the country back together a little bit. Lets dive into the nitty dprity a little bit now. Plump wants vote counting to stop in michigan and pennsylvania. Will that help him at this point . At this point hes not ahead. I dont know necessarily whether or not he would want to stop that. Its also just not how it works. In california, californias 58 counties are fill processing ballots, still going to be counting ballots for days. Its not like hes rushing into lake coup in california and telling them to stop their ballots. Its part of the process thats going on all over the country. We cant cherry pick and say these states at this particular moment in time should stop doing what theyre required to do. Right. Is it possible for already counted votes to be thrown out . Its one thing to not count certain ballots but to say somehow theyre disqualified. Once a ballots counted, you cant go back in and retrieve that persons ballot. Its not tied to the actual person at this appointment. You could have a situation where an entire countys ballots were challenged. Weve had situations where an entire election has been undone because of over fraud like we saw a few years ago with a campaign that was illegally changing votes on ballots. Thats the remedy. The remedy is not try to find the 25 ballots and invalidate them. The ballots that are come in later that might not have a postmark, lets set those aside and not process those until a court decides, that is the thing that could happen. But once theyre counted, you cant uncount them. The president is still interested in counting votes in arizona. Could arizona off a surprise that benefits him . Yeah. I mean, theres still outstanding ballots. The fact is hes losing by a few points. In order to actually win the state hed probably have to win the remaining ballots by about 20 points. Thats what you would expect unless theres some kind of voter at tribute. The math is getting harder for him. What have we learned about what matters to voters in this election . We might take a little longer to really decipher that. As an example we saw some exit polls that said candidates that voters were looking for candidates that showed strength. Some people thought, ok, well, that might be trump. Others were saying they might be concerned about the covid crisis. That could be trump because theyre saying theyre concerned about shutdowns and everything. It could be democrats because theyre concerned about their health or safety. I think theres going to be a lot of up packing about what these results mean and sometimes i think we try to read too much into like deciding that everything in this election was about this one tiny subgroup of the electorate. This race could have been decided by voters in florida or texas or any number of states. Even if mr. Biden wins, i think the landslide did not materialize, so polling is under fire once again. The results i recognize are incomplete right now but where do you think the hits and misses were when it comes to polling . Its unclear right now. In 2016 they said it was an undercounting of lower income white voters who had not voted in 2012 and 2008. A lot of pollsters were making sure that they were waving theyre examples to education, instead of taking partisanship and age and ethnicity. That seems to have not actually done it. We ended up still having a systemic bias in the polling that undervalued the trump strength in most polls. The only poll near the end that actually saw trumps strength in the west was the poll for the des moines register. And that showed him winning by seven in that state. It was really seen as an aberration. The fact is that it was probably the one that was right on. There was some systemic problems with the polls not just in the midwest but also in florida, texas, potentially throughout the country. All right. Well, you already mentioned that this election does show how divided we are as a nation. Given that, do you expect elections to go like this for a long time to come . I dont think well have an election like this again. Trump is a character who isnt able to be replicated in the next election psycheful. We might consider more normalcy in the days ors year coming forward. Really, its unsure. We probably are going to take a little while to get through this and see how our politics is changed by this last four years. I dont even know if i remember what normal looks like anymore. Paul mitchell, thanks so much. Well talk to you soon. Thanks for having me. Yep. Its a debate that seems endless, should we its made for this guy a veteran who honorably served and its made for her shes serving now we made it for all branches and all ranks whether they served one tour or made a career of it. We also made usaa for military spouses and their kids usaa is easy to work with and can save you money on auto, home and renters insurance. Become a member today. Get an insurance quote at usaa. Com quote usaa. What youre made of were made for former Vice President biden looks to be on track for a narrow electoral victory, although President Trump can certainly still win its knot over. Regardless, the Electoral College and the u. S. District court has been back in the spotlight. Joining us to talk about the Electoral College is jessie wagman, a member of the New York TimesEditorial Board and author of let the people pick the president. Thanks for joining us. Thanks for having me. We know how the Electoral College votes. When we vote were not actually voting for the president. Were voting for electors who develop and vote. Whats wrong with the system . We think we know how the Electoral College works from high school. In talking with americans everywhere, many of us have a lot of misunderstandings, misconceptions and myths that we hold on to about how the college functions. Two of the most important are the fact that we the people, regular citizens like you and me and the people watching this show have no constitutional right at all to play any role in the choice of the president. That is entirely up to the decision of your state law enforcement. Enforcement. State lawmakers, california, like almost every other state gives out its electors by the winner take all rule. All 55 of the electoral votes good go to the candidate who win the most votes in this case, which will clearly be joe biden. Thats a choice they dont have to make. As were seeing right now, to great states, maine and nebraska divide theirs up by congressional districts. Joe biden won one that way and that could be what puts him over the top. These are things that are not in the constitution s. Even though when we talk about the Electoral Colleges, we think its in the constitution. This is something the states can change whatever they like. Maine divides up their electoral votes. How did they end up that way and not the other 48 states . Could california just choose to go that way . Sure you could. States have been experimenting with different ways of choosing electors. Today we all do it by popular vote. We assume thats how the Electoral College works. At the founding, a lot of states, the lawmakers chose them as electors. They didnt involve the people at all. Most states converted to the popular election method that we all know today. Yes, california, if it shows tomorrow for the next election could award its electors by congressional districts or any other method it chose. You mentioned the freedom that the electors have. I know some people will worry about that. You just need a couple of electors to flip, if you will. Can that perceivably happen . Some people call them rogue electors or perhaps under the direction of a legislature thats controlled. Could that happen . Lets separate those questions out. Theres twoishes there. The issue of whether or not the legislate sure can step in and change things around is its own issue. The electors have been with us since the beginning. It ties back to what the framers thought. Alexander hamilton wrote that electors would be these thoughtful deliberative men and sat down and figured who would be the best country to run the country. Its never been that way. Immediately after the constitutional convention, electors have been team players because they were either representing one partys candidate or the other. Thats all it was and thats all it is today. Theres no incentive in the vast, vast majority of cases for electors to go rogue, as you say. The best example, look what happened in 2000. We had a similar electoral count, split in 2000 as we might have today. 271 for george w. Bush, 267. He had two more votes than he needed to become president. Well, a lot has changed in 20 years, too, in terms of the way people approach things. I wane to fold in a couple of questions from our viewers. Barbara wants to know is there a chance to get rid to have Electoral College. Many attempts have been made and none have succeeded, right . More than 800 attempts have been made to abolish the college. Its clearly been a source of frustration and anger for people for more than 200 years. Right now we are actually in the midst of the effort thats gone furthest than almost any other and thats not an abolition of the Electoral College but a different way to use it. The winner takes all laws, theres a movement which states agree to award their electors to the winner of the most votes in all 50 states. Not the winner of their own states. The winner of the most votes everywhere. When states represent 270 electoral, thats what you need to win. When 270 worth of states this, you make the president the person who got the most votes in the country. Its far along. Its more than twothirds of the way there. I hope that answers your question. I want to ask you, though, what about the argument that the Electoral College, the way it is now, is needed to protect against the teary of the majority. Whether its giving us too much power or completely neglecting the needs in more rural areas such as iowa farmers and if its just popular vote, that means candidates are only going to come over here and campaign to us and meet our needs. What do you say to that . I hear that a lot. Its mistaken in multiple ways. First of all, i mean, majority rule is how we run every single hex in this country other than the president. I dont see why its not good enough for the presidency as well. I think the majority should always choose the representative. This is not were not switching over to some direct democracy here. Were still choosing our leaders. Were choosing our leaders by majority rule. Even then, i think people misnabbed how the Electoral College affects different states. Rural areas right now are the places you describe where people feel like theyll be completely ignored. Do people really know how Candidates Campaign right now . When was the last time they went to wyoming or nebraska well, nebraska is a little different now. Small states, rural states, large states, urban states are all ignored by both candidates every four years because they are safe states. Theyre states where nothing the candidates do can make a difference. Its the Battle Ground states weve been watching today, whether theres a few more thousand votes in georgia or michigan. Those states arent special. They happen to be very closely divided and a few votes one way or the other can make all the difference. That draws all the candidates attention, all of air money, all their ad dollars, policy proposals and the rest of us are left out in the cold. This ignores americans. A National Popular vote would force the candidates to try to win everywhere. All right. Interesting conversation. We ran out of time to talk about the supreme court. Thats next time. Thanks a lot. Thank you. Were about to hear from a local democratic and republican leader about how im alex trebek here to tell you about the Colonial Penn program. If youre age 5085 and looking to buy Life Insurance on a fixed budget, remember the three ps. The three what . The three ps . What are the three ps . The three ps of Life Insurance on a fixed budget are price, price, and price. A price you can afford, a price that cant increase, and a price that fits your budget. Im 54 and i was a smoker but quit. Alex, whats my price . You can get coverage for 9. 95 a month. Im 65, retired, and take medications. Whats my price . Also 9. 95 a month. I just turned 80 and im on a fixed income. Whats my price . 9. 95 a month for you, too. 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Good to see you. Good to be with you. How are you feeling right now about where the race stands . I feel very hopeful. I feel very hopeful. Its a very, very tough election environment as everybody knows. Gotten a little bit of sleep and a little bit of deep breathing but mostly like everyone else, refreshing the numbers and taking a look at the map, very excited to see more women get elected to congress and though the house lost a handful of members in trump districts, the democrats did retain a majority and as for the presidency, it looks as though the path to joe bidens presidency was paved in these tough Battle Ground districts in the house and also through the west. But what do you make of the president s claim that counting ballots after election day needs to be stopped and hes dlamg electoral votes. He sent a tweet, georgia, north carolina, and maybe here are the facts. The election laws that donald trump ran and won under four years ago are substantially the same now, which is states determine their electoral process and states like california allow people to vote by mail and to cast that ballot in advance of election day or on election day, turn it in and if its postmarked on election day and received then or shortly thereafter, depending on the state, then its allowed to be counted. It has to go through a signature match and verification. Its eligible is the point. Thats what were talking about, which is can we just have the president calm down and let the process work . Its the same process he won by four years ago. It hasnt changed. It shouldnt change just because it looks like joe biden might be taking some of those states. You know what . Were out of time. I have to reduce to a yes and no question. Do you think a lot will still be ak flishd the scenario that we end up with a democratic white house, Democratic House but Republican Senate and a conservative majority, 63 on the court . Absolutely. Joe biden is going to be the president for all americans, not just those who voted with him. He has a 47year history of reaching across the aisle and working with one another. A working partner in Speaker Nancy Pelosi will get the job done. That was about 15 seconds but im rim pressed with how quickly you did it. Thanks for joining us. Thank you. Likewise. We well, you just heard from the California DemocraticParty Women Caucus chair christine pelosi. Now we want to hear from john dennis. Good to see you this morning good to see you. Its no longer morning. This election has been like that. We were talking and were in a good mood. Now the path to the 270 electoral votes has narrowed quite a bit. How are you feeling . Im feeling fine. The president is concerned. I of course am concerned about it. I think theres a path and i think we need to power on and see how everything falls. Is it your goal that every ballot is countsed and however that plays out, thats if way it plays out or do you wane to have the voting stopped and perhaps challenge or vose that were legitimately cast put aside. Do you support any of that . No. I think we should count every valid ballot. Heres the thing. We have to come out on the other side of this as a country. I think if one side or the other feels like something shady went on or something dodgy, were not going to fare well. So count every valid ballot and that would include post marks and that sort of thing. Uhhuh. No matter what happens in the president ial race, ultimately i know that youre intercepting this election as somewhat of a vick for the gop no matter what in certain specific ways. Tell us about those. The partys done well with minorities. Donald trump did exceptionally well with minorities. We picked up a couple of seats in the house. We held the senate. Weve created a new image for the republican party, which i think will last. In the end, if President Trump can pull this through, i think were looking forward to four great years ahead of us. All right. I want to ask you about the vote counting and the assertion that the elections over, stop counting. If the president was worried about that do you think he should have worked with the legislatures and saying lets beef that up so we can count the ballots on time or that the usps makes sure the ballots are delivered. The elections are controlled by the states, so theres only so much that he can do. If he offers too much help it seems like hes putting his thumb on the scale. So i dont think i mean, i think theres some sort of false hoax running around here that somehow he was holding back the usps. Of course that never happened. As the final guest of this halfhour, we get to chat two minutes longer on Facebook Live. Were going to take a short break no. The shows over. Well see you on Facebook Live just to finish this conversation. Thanks for joining us today on getting answers. We hope youll continue to join us every weekends. How much time do we have . 30. John, are you still with us. I am. If this doesnt go the tway president hopes, how long do you hope he goes out . 15 is seconds. I think he knows that if the courts rule in one direction, he needs to exit for the sake of the country. Great talking with tonight, america waits. And there is breaking news as we come on the air. Movement tonight in the president ial election. The state of the race at this hour. News from the key states of michigan and wisconsin. Late today, abc news projecting michigan for joe biden. Abc news tonight can also characterize biden the apparent winner in wisconsin. Getting him closer to 270. President trump and joe biden eyeing their paths to 270 electoral votes and all along, the key state of pennsylvania. If President Trump can win pennsylvania, what happens . What will he need then . How arizona and nevada could play key roles. Well take you through it all tonight. Tom llamas standing by. And joe biden speaking late today after calling for calm and patience, calling supporters to keep the faith. What he said late today about what he sees in the next few