Transcripts For FBC Making 20240702

Expensive particularly on a shortterm basis. It is fine as one as one stock paves the way, drum roll. You know nvidia will post results after the close. Can they live up to the markets extreme expectations . Everyone is banking on it. Plus signs the Housing Market is in some sort of stage of stagflation. What does it mean for the rest of the economy. Analysts, economists have been saying the consumer is strong, the consumer strong. Somebody better tell target. In fact not just target, they join ad chorus line of retailers all suggesting that consumers are in trouble. Why the apes and the new investor revolution remind me the spirit of the american revolution. All that and so much more on making money. Charles all right, so listen the eerie calm is out there. The market, you know, has, really elevated in many ways. It is on this really big winning streak right now. Im talking about a streak of sessions without a 2 decline, right . This is where we are right now. 313 trading sessions coming in. You can see we made the list. Okay, i will admit, the record, going back to 2003 to 2007, golly, imagine that, four years, 949 trading days. This would take another couple years to get there. Nevertheless its a big move, right . We made a really big move without giving any of it back. Now hires the key, i think. As long as the s p 500 stays above its 50day moving average which right now is 5161 i think the bias will remain to the upside. Heres the problem though, you can see things like relative strength, were getting a little toppy in some key indicators here. Nevertheless the bias is to the upside, that is the thing, right . But heres the problem when you really pull back, look under the hood a little bit. We want to stay exposed to the stock market but it is really tough, because it is harder and harder to find socalled values. This one chart, one sign. The blue line, percent of u. S. Stocks overbought. Using relative strength indicator. Look at this number. It is absolutely huge, folks. There aint a lot of bargains out there. Thats the problem right now, particularly if you have not invested in this market and youre eager to get involved. Then you say okay, lets employ some traditional valuation metrics. Golly, this is another one. This is where we are currently, and this is your average, starting with trailing pe, 22. 6, versus 14. 9, thats crazy, but the numbers all trailing, 26. 2, 15. 1. How about price to book value, 4. 65, to 2. 65, pick any of them, folks. Trailing peg ratio, 2. 01, to 2. 68. Every single line were significantly overvalued, this of course if you want to use traditional valuation metrics. Lets face it, all of this boils down to one name, right . Look how eerie this is. So you have got the share price of nvidia which went parabolic, remember back in 2002, 2002, to 2023. We learned about a. I. , picks and shelves. It has gone absolutely parabolic, traditionally a lot of folks, im talking major money managers. They would not have been in this market. They would have been selling this market like crazy but nvidia has changed everything, it has changed everything. That is why today it is going to be really tough. You say, charles, you know what . The market is so overvalued, where is the concern . Where is the concern . I agree with you. Take a look at this, single stock shorts, interest, right . This is the russell 3,000, almost all the stocks out there, 1. 6 is short. This is crazy. So, while wall street knows that this market is extended, and it is expensive very few are putting their money where their mouths is when it comes to actually going in there, going in there and shorting this. Mean time were more than halfway you there the month, so far a may to remember. Look at this, qs up 7 , russell is up six 1 2 , emerging markets up 6 . The s p is trailing. Theyre up only 5. 4 . So its clear in hindsight, selling in may, going away would have been a grave mistake a huge mistake for investors. You know what . My first guest kind of warned you about this. He said should we sell in may and go away . Bring in crescent cio Founding Partner jack ablin. Jack you urged folks to hold equities. You made a specific note, particularly those investors subject to capitalgains tax. Your work shows the s p is up maybe 16 overvalued right now. Is it time to see the taxman . No. I wouldnt, i wouldnt say that yet. In fact you brought it up earlier in your comments about momentum. The fact is that the s p is trading above its 50day moving average. Its 50day moving average is above the 200day moving average. So we have a lot of momentum. The fact is that valuation as i have learned the hard way is not a timing tool. Valuation is fantastic for figuring out the what the markets potential is for the next 10 years but over the next 10 months its pretty disconnected and random when it comes to that connection. Charles right. Jack i put a chart from your report here, just show the audience. This is where we are. According to your data how much overvalued we are. You said forget about it, trying to play the game is followly. You played it many times in the past few years you would have sold the market and regretted it. I wanted to look at another one of your charts. Talking about the cumulative impact of trillions of dollars that has gone into this economy. Since the great financial crisis, 22 trillion, 22 trillion, fiscal and monetary stimulus pumped into this. Space it it is is ambrosia for the stock market. It is hurting main street but does ever wall street push back on this . When i hear someone on wall street talk about a welfare queen, you kid me, no one likes free money more than wall street. Well never push back, will we . Know. In fact those numbers dont take into the account the fed kept Interest Rates between two and 3 below fair value for more than a dozen years. Thats another trillion dollars a year. So thats it. I mean the fact is weve seen this money go in. It is impact to the economy. It has impacted asset values, not just the stock market but real estate, commercial real estate and residential real estate. Weve seen it really, a lot of this is behind the inflation that were, that were suffering with right now. And so the question is, okay, how far can we expand this . It has gone on for a couple of years after the Interest Rates have reset back in 2022, but at some point either we get this huge productivity boost from a. I. And with that, huge earnings growth, or, were going to have to reconcile back to fair value at some point. I dont know what that catalyst is. There are number of things were watching. I dont know what is going to hit. Charles weve all been looking, talking about this thinking it will happen at some point. I think it is fair to say when it does well not know, it will be too late to do anything about it. Hey, i do want to discuss before i let you go, less than a minute to go, you do see ideas out there, you focus on quality and dividend growers. Automatic Data Processing internationals about machines and johnson johnson. Youre comfortable with folks buying these at the current level . I am. What were looking to do is clip a dividend. So in cases between 2 1 2 and 4 , dividend yields and these dividends are expected to grow between five and 10 annually. So it is a great way to, kind of clip a dividend. Certainly better than bonds because if inflation does go up this is a wild card. Inflation goes up these dividends will likely go up as well. Charles yeah, yeah. I like that idea as well too. Jack, thank you so much, my friend, appreciate kicking the show off with you. All right. Thanks for the invitation. Charles my flex guest says that the fed is out of the game, folks, that is actually a good thing. Lets bring in kingsview wealth, managing cio, fox business contributor scott martin. Scott, exactly what do you mean when you say the fed is out of the picture. Out of the game, out of the picture, not even sitting on the bench, charles. I think the fed is done. I think they have engineered, one of most unheralded, unloved most benign soft land National History frankly. When they promised they would do, all the kids and everybody hated on for the longest time. They have arrived, charles, at containment of inflation. Not quite at that 2 rate they want to have which is a tshirt anyway. 3 should be fine. Employment is still strong. Gdp is weak but not falling into the negative. The fed has done what they promised they would do, which means they need to leave rates stable going into the election and Going Forward after that. Charles are you saying this is sort of, i know a lot of folks argue if you look over the 100 year period, four 1 2, five, this is where we should be, this is quote, unquote normal, normalization of rates but it is new to folks who have been in the market only 40 years. This may be normal based on the past century is that what the fed is trying to do now, try to establish a new old paradigm and kind of back away from this grace fully . Yeah, good call. Another tshirt slogan i need to be in that mood today, how about normal for longer, boys and girls . Crazy to think the fed has to start cutting rates all of sudden market will fall, commercial real estate, this debt bomb in commercial real estate will not happen, fed needs to cutrates down to one, 2 , zero again . It is ridiculous. The fed being four 1 2 rather percent or so, lowering to for 1 2 sometimes the next two years, using those bullets in the gun for a real problem, not manufactured like Bank Failures you hear on some of the other networks, that tell you the sky is falling recession is coming. That is what we need to worry about but the fed is ready for it. Charles youre looking for summer doldrums to pick in. Talk about ideas you like. I know you like food stocks here. Nestles chris kip krispy kreme this bucks couple trends, food inflation and drug miracle trend. People saying hey i have took a shot i dont need to visit krispy kreme anymore. That is very sad story, that is not something i would ascribe to but people do that. Nestle is one where theyre rolling out meals to people using ozempic and some other drug buildings out there with regards to crazy weight loss phase going on there. Nestle actually rolling out meals to these folks to get them to eat again. A lot of friends of mine are taking diet pills. Theyre doing great, theyre healthy, theyre happy but they dont eat. Actually nestle is rolling out meals for that the krispy kreme donuts, man, dare i say next to taco bell, my favorite restaurant on the planet. I have amazing records at krispy kreme donuts. Kkd is selling dough nutses through mcdonalds, rolling that out nationwide. Not kkd anymore. Donut. Charles dnut. Makes me think of other things, here is the thing about dnut. Doughnuts are wanted at mcdonald peace because their pastries stink as far as mcdonalds go. Charles my pan you veered into a lyle bit of gray area. You almost got us into trouble. Well see. I know you like advanced micro. Does that mean you dont like nvidia going into the close . Good call. I think nvidia earnings will be okay. We owned nvidia since 400 for our clients. Im not worried about nvidia, it will deliver and bring home the bacon throwing it back to food. Amd is talking about one of those, when you led off the show, amd is one trashed. Amd valuation is hammered. One the sentiment totally turned on. Amd that vote can be lifted if nvidia delivers after the market. Amd is one that can much up to nvidia if the sentiment on the chips change which i this with the sent men o nvidia today. Charles amd is acting great last two sessions. Scott, thanks. Trading options can makeorbreak an investor. We know theyre an amazing tool. You need the right training. We have some strategies for you. Well talk about nvidia, with other areas of one of the option greats. The that the najarians are here. [introspective music] recipes. Recipes that are more than their ingredients. [smoke alarm] recipes written by hand and lost to time. Can now be analyzed and restored using the power of dell ai. Preserving memories and helping to write new ones. vo what does it mean to be rich . Maybe rich is less about reaching a magic number. And more about discovering magic. 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From our factory to our stevia farm, splendas team of over 2000 individuals are dedicated to helping people live their best lives. Taking pride that everyday millions say i use splenda. and now sweeten drinks wherever you are with splenda zerocalorie liquid sweeteners. Try all three. Available in the baking aisle. Charles so i know yesterday the implied move for nvidia was an 8 move. I have to be honest with you. I think it will be doubledigit move. I think by the way the percent move gain or loss will break or shatter the record. With that kind of volatility there has to be a way of maybe making money and you think options. Lets bring in Market Rebellion cofounder, jon nariman behravesh. I tell you my man, if you dont play options you start to get a little looseygoosey a little excited. Nvidia will report. You have a potential straddle option strategy for us . Youre exactly right, charles, in fact i would probably dot strangle. I will describe both in a sec. What charles told you guys, is exactly right, because he knows options he has been doing this a long time, you can basically price what the street expects the move to be in any stock by the options trading, the at the money options. Just as charles said it has been pricing in 8. 2 move. So if somebody wanted to sell that they would be collecting, 78, 79 for selling that straddle, the combination of the call and the put f it stays within that 8 move, then you keep the money, but as charles said, some people like him are looking for a doubledigit move. I dont think anybody is looking for that doubledigit move to the downside. So what im seeing, charles, is a lot of retail and some professional traders selling downside puts, a put is the right to push stock over into somebody elses lap you dont want anymore at that price. If we dont think the stock is going down big, i think a lot of people are probably looking at those 900 puts which would be 50 lower in the stock saying, thats almost free money. Charles right. There is also a lot of folks that are selling that upside call at about that doubledigit spot that charles just described, like for instance, if it is at 950, lets say theyre telling the 1020, 100,020dollar calls or Something Like that. That would allow them to keep that huge premium theyre getting for those calls if it doesnt break that doubledigit, that 10 move to the upside. I think a lot of people are playing that but it doesnt seem that the pros are either really nervous or really bullish. Thats why im saying, charles, that i think it is going to stay in that band, so you and i can do breakfast, dinner, whatever you want on that bet. You have got double digits. I have 8 . Charles searcheds good. A couple other strategies you want to share with us, i appreciate it. Solar is the biggest mover, these Exotic Energy place. I remember bloom energy, be, 60 minutes 10 years ago would revolutionize everything. Hasnt done it yet. Youre seeing bullish call buying there. We have minute to go, bring up starbucks as well. Youre seeing bullish call buying on both of these. How does the audience take advantage . In both cases it is a simple trade, it is just purchasing a call and as we both know youre defining your risk when you buy that call option. Bloom is more or less one of those fuel cell stocks and they have got a ton of installations around the world. The stock has been moving up. This was 12 just a couple days ago. Now here it is it is up another two or three bucks today and making a very nice upside move. People are betting it is going to continue. So you buy that call right where the stock is now. Same thing with starbucks after that horrible earnings that they announced and the big drop out of the stock. Now theyre thinking it stablizes and at least for a shortterm pop, not all the way back where it came from, but at least a shortterm pop for maybe five bucks. Thats what people are buying right now with that at the money call, charles. Charles i think to your point because starbucks has bounced so many times you probably got pretty good risk reward there. Jon, cant wait to get you in studio, you and your brother. Talk to you again real soon. Thank you, charles, my pleasure. Charles folks, in the meantime consumers are really feeling the strain. I know all the experts keep telling you that youre dumb, you dont know what you feel but the strain of inflation is being felt. In fact target just the latest retailer to echo that in the real world. Forget about theory, right . Danielle dimartino booth, joe lavorgna, weve got an allstar cast to talk about the true health of the consumer and what it means for the feds policies next. voya there are some things that work better together. 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And theres still so much to see. If you are on eylea or a similar type of treatment, ask your retina specialist about eylea hd today, for the potential for fewer injections. Charles all right, so i know theres always an avalanche of data but the good news it gives us a chance, right, to evaluate the status of the economy and the consumer and maybe get the pulse of the Federal Reserve. Lydia hu will walk us through the latest. Reporter charles, on that score we have to talk about the economic surprise index, because it has flipped even further this past month. Were down well into negative territory that happens when we see data missing the forecasts and its a sign that momentum is slowing. All this is happening as were also seeing the markets climbing maybe on the hopes for a rate cut here. We have got to talk about retailers because we have news from target. The big box retailer target is really showing weakness. Theyre showing us that the consumer pulling back in a meaningful way. Transactions fell 1. 9 , theyre also seeing the amount per average transaction falling also 1. 9 . That means the company is joining the ranks of home depot and lowes, abysmal samestore sales but this decline in pricing power, charles, noticeable as it comes in the decline also in the number of companies that are talking about inflation andin their earnings calls. You can see most recently 219 mentions, way down than two years ago when we saw more than 400 mentions per quarter. Even on that positive note, that might be some good news. There is some worry because were seeing that the financials are mentioning the inflation the most. We have Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples that have some mentions of inflation that are still a little too high for comfort. There is this mornings report on home sales, existing home sales. Not only a bigger decline than what was expected but the storyline is fitting with the theme of stagflation, lower demand, higher prices. All this Economic Data is also coming with another trend. Seems like the fed is now stronging a more dovish tone which brings us back to this conversation should which be asking about rate cuts . I will send it back to you. Charles lydia, thank you very much. I think i have two of the perfect guests to help us figure this out, qi research ceo, chief strategist, Danielle Dimartino booth, former white house chief economist, he is now at smbc, he is their chief economist, joe lavorgna. This all of course, minutes ago we got the fed minutes. What do you make of it though, danielle . Because one thing you talked about a lot, is the consumer and ways that you know, use a plethora of data, ways that i dont hear a lot of wall street economists talk about them and retail, retail industry. Were seeing a ton of bankruptcies as well. We are, were not just seeing bankruptcies and restructurings were seeing liquidations how many stores will close overnight that means somebody is unemployed overnight. That is a huge difference compared to a Silicon Valley layoff circa 2023 who gets nine months of fat severance a much different dynamic. We started to see uptick in initial jobless claims. Initial jobless chairman are claims are grossing at continuing jobless claims. These minutes say very little about the labor market unlike jay powell at the podium did. It is all about inflation. Charles jay powell went out of his way the last two fomc q a periods, to mention labor. This is my theory, joe, i believe the fed will always 4. 1, maybe 4. 2 percent unemployment the excuse or reason to start cutting rates. They may, charles. It depends where inflation is. The three and six months rates of change have to be at least where they were last november when powell gave the decent pivot. On the labor market if it weakens, certainly that could bring the fed into play much sooner. I believe the labor market is soft but to danielles point about layoffs, the bls data, Third Largest government adjustment creating jobs that may or may not exist in the history of net birth death adjustments. If the labor market is weaker than i think, i believe danielle thinks the same thing the payroll numbers will ultimately revised down. Charles these revisions after the fact never move the needle. No. They dont. As long as equity market thinks this is any vana, you create a lot of wealth, you keep the party going. To josephs point who cares about the Third Quarter of 2023 except for the people originally about the negative 192. We know we were shedding jobs which would have been huge news in september, last september. We knew we were already there. Which means lagged revisions, theyre not going to talk about them in the white house lawn, give give me a break, lag revisions we could have easily gone into recession in the Third Quarter if youre basing it on job losses. Charles joe, also basing it on market reaction. I was talking earlier with jack ablin about the 22 trillion thats poured into this economy between fiscal and monetary policy. Thats ambrosia for markets. The market loves that. The market will never push back against that. Until, if inflation stays high, forcing Federal Reserve to have to hike because inflation will not likely fall on its own. Charles you think the fed will hike this powell fed . In the future. Someone backing off this may hike. That was a joke. That was a joke. On the Unemployment Rate, to your point about the rate, goes up to 4. 1, 4. 2, charles, to that point it probably keeps going up. Even if you look back in the 50s, when Unemployment Rate was under three, it still went up to six. Go from 3, 4, ultimately up to five 1 2, six, not hard to do. Were not there yet. But it could turn quick. Charles going back to the 50s for just a second, not that any of us were around then, going back to the 50s, National Bureau of Economic Research dated a recession before they even saw a rise off the low in the Unemployment Rate. So we, the market may be disregarding revisions. The National Bureau of Economic Research is not. Charles is not, although it will be after the fact. It was 366 days before they dated the last one. We also had two recessions in the 50s where the equity market and economy peaked at the same time. This notion you cant have a recession because stokes are at alltime highs is a bit misleading. Charles so the consumer, where is the consumer . I saw lowes, i saw home depot, today i see target. These are major retailers. Forget about whether they beat consensus that is guessing game by wall street, theyre talking samestore sales. Walmart was a winner because they were able to get greater traction from lower price. Same with tj maxx, same with costco but theyre it. Theyre cannibalizing others. Right. In the aggregate, i have a spreadsheet tracking all the samestore sales were about to slip on yearoveryear basis to negative territory if you look at all the surviving retailers out there. Its not pretty when walmart is saying were getting highend consumers that means another retailer is losing theirs. Charles joe, consumer where do you think the consumer is . Inflation adjusted terms were back to where we were precovid. We had the huge burst in spending on goods i dont think is sustainable. Banks tightened standards. Interest rates for incremental borrower are high. Just a question when it breaks. Interesting thing about the fed, they raised rates aggressively. Theyre letting Balance Sheet grow. Bank reserves higher than when the fed started. Qt, a little bit of an offset. At some point things will break, when it does it gets ugly quickly. Election year. Regardless things tend to go until they dont. Charles big debate particularly outside the fed, maybe inside the fed have rates been restrictive enough. Enough, right. What were seeing right now, i think a lot of banks are freaking out about it especially on the private side, my gosh private lenders are now in big freakout mode, commercial real estate is transacting and transacting fast. What we avoided in 2023 we avoided price discovery. We have price discovery in spades. Charles a building 120 million, sold for 40 million that kind of stuff . Those things are happening in rapid succession as opposed to 2023 when we were in pretend, extend mode, hoping fed would do what . Take Interest Rates back not 25 basis points but to zero. Charles joe, 30 seconds, is the fed in your mind just being overly cautious or are they almost as confused as everyone else . Both. It is a very confusing time. Difficult set of markets, no question. And, but i do think the fed is being cautious. What i would argue, what, jay powell should do is add a little twoway risk in the market. All he has to say look, we thought inflation would come down. We think inflation is going to come down. Were not going to rule out the prospects of higher rates. We dont think its necessary. All options are on the table. Instead they have a asymetric bent. I wish they added that, because markets rally every time they say they will not hike anymore or they might ease. Charles that is the all clear sign. Joe, danielle, thank you both very much. Thank you, charles. Charles folks were talking signs of a slower economy. You flow for a lot of investors thats good news. Jeffrey sherman though is in studio with us. He has got a few red flags you must be on the lookout for right after this. Clems not a morning person. Or a. People person. But he is an i can solve this in 4 different ways person. You need clem. 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We all kind of see that but also the pace of inflation but he does not see recession in part because the stimulus is still out there in the system, fixed rate debt and the return of m2 which had taken a major turn lower. Doubleline capital deputy chief Investment Officer jeffrey sherman. Jeff, start with that no recession, that is nowhere on your bingo card right now, nowhere on the near term horizon . At least for 2024 there is always almosting out there but there is some probability of it, but as you point out we have to remember all these stimuli what they did to the overall economy. So we focus so much monetarily but there is still the fiscal stimulus in there so you referenced m2 you talked about it hooking back up a little bit again. Charles weigh have a chart between us. It was sort of, it made a precipitous move lower. That was actually where a lot of people were making that recession call based on that . In history when weve seen a contraction of m2 yearoveryear it has led to a recession but remember there are very few data points that exhibit that but what youre missing in this chart is going back threeyears or so. If you look how much the increase in growth was, we increased the Monetary Base by more than 30 during 2021 and 20 and 2021, so from that standpoint that money still sits out there some what. Even though this chart shows it accelerating again, what youre missing is the longterm trend. The longterm trend were still way above that. That is juicing some of these asset prices as well. Now the fed always focused on this whole excess savings concept. You and i talked about it. Charles right, yeah. Give me some of that. Excess i want some. Ive been using that phrase. I credit you with it. But the think about it is we dont know what sits out there still in peoples bank accounts. We have seen rising little link sys, when you notice you see that, it is affecting the young, bottom income and affecting the bottom fico cohorts this is usually where stress builds in the system, right . Inflation is a regressive tax. Were starting to see some of those impacts there. But, charles, i could have been saying this still for the last 12 months. Charles right. Were kind of seeing it work through the system. The data has slowed the last month or so. We dont like to say one data point makes a trend, you need two or three. We still think it is too early to call the recession at least in aye 24. Where does it lead the fed in particular sticky inflation is still an issue. There is lot of rationalization over shelter and how long the lag is. But you and i also were talking about the supercore cpi, which unfortunately i dont think the Financial Media talked enough about because in that cpi report that continues to spike higher . It is not accretive to the fed. It doesnt support the narrative for cutting rates. No one wants to talk about it. Rao. You talk about the fed where are they this rock and hard place, right . They want to cut. They were signaling that. The market started to pressure them. We had as many as seven 25 basis point cuts in the market in january this year and roughly at 1 1 2 or so. What changed the dynamic is, the inflation data is not supportive of rate cuts. Absent the last cpi report the previous three were spiking the other direction. They were missing to the upside. I think the fed wants to see reversal of that. I want to see three or four more those kind of prints be accretive. That puts you before the election. The fed has to be on hold really throughout the summer. They will probably wait for the election anyway. So betting on a rate cut over the course of the summer i think is futile exercise because we need to see data improve meaningfully. I heard your previous guest talk about Unemployment Rate going up but Unemployment Rate is mower or less stable. We see more immigration and job plate. It doesnt look like unemployment is significantly on the rise. Charles i have only 30 seconds. I know in your note, tbill and chill is still the way to go. Also your thoughts though on the stock market which rallied initially on those seven rate cuts you talked about. Then the narrative changed but it is always good. Hey, dont worry about rate cuts if the economy is strong the market will be strong. Now that the economy is beginning to wane, the mark street would like to get on the rate cut bandwagon. Summarize that. Tbill and chill you have time to chill you dont have much time to chill if the fed will cut. You can build portfolios. You find things with six, seven, 8 on the credit side and Interest Rate bets you have portfolio outstrips that t bill. You will have to build the portfolio soon if you dont already have it. For the equity market the narrative was rate cuts. Still megacap driving the overall market. Interest rate sensitive sectors have been struggling, right . Look at small caps, look at middle market lending area, places that have floating rate debt exposure where they will have to pay higher kruper response for a longer period of time. Those areas still struggle. Were butting gulf by the megacap effects. All eyes are on nvidia. Who wants to short nvidia. No one wants to bet against that. Tech has done well in earnings this quarter. I dont see why nvidia wouldnt do the same. Charles always great seeing you. My pleasure. Charles since the founding of this country weve seen all kinds of protests, even in the last six months weve seen all kinds of protests. Why is wall street propeople protest with their own cash . My take on the investor revolution next. bell ringing someone needs to customize and save hundreds with Liberty Mutual inaudible sounds elevator doors opening wait, theres an elevator . Only pay for what you need. Liberty, liberty, liberty, liberty. Its odd how in an instant things can transform. Slipping out of balance into freefall. Im glad i found stability amidst it all. Gold. Standing the test of time. Charles nvidia, just an hour, albany crosses the number, they have been surging a little bit lately. The last five times a day reported, last we 6 reports, stock exploded, 10 , and nvidia, stands up big time. Think about this, when they went public. 37 million up from 60,000 a year, there werent a million rounds on the private side, 12, and wonder if there will be stock that i feel a price like nvidias was. Sarah, i know the game has changed. The Financial Media played a role in this, ipo was 50 in stock trading 75, they left all that money on the table, they could have sucked it all out of the public. Main street, individual investor, the idea is to the max and all of these ipos open so high eventually they trail and breakeven. Companies are waiting longer to go public, raising a ton more money before they do and their valuations are so out of whack with multiples on the street, it is hard to get back at a level that feels saying if you are the local guy on main street. Charles in the private sector, money is coming back to the dc area and the nvidias at metas invest everything also. Feels like they will come public at some point. The proplaps and cons of that. Nvidia is investing, that invest in the man use it to spend back with nvidia, a well oiled machine that works, doesnt necessarily mean the company is generating a ton of value outside that but i would love to see the ipo window open backup as of that but the mna window is slammed shut too because lena con does not like it charles she doesnt like anything. She doesnt like capitalism. Back to 202122 levels, 115, more biotech, going on in the biotech sector, using them to find more drugs faster, and huge success around are those weight loss drugs, people looking for more magic bullet sort of pills or injections that make them a lot of money. Charles is this your ai play for now or is it too expensive . It has been expensive for me for a long time. Not the space i am looking. Im looking at the legacy tech fields, ebay, what they are doing with ai, Machine Learning is interesting, reasonably priced. Nvidia is in good company but too expensive. Charles they are trying to generate opportunity on the bottom line. Great seeing you. Love that dress. It is summer time. Got an email from john no jerry on, their purchase got a bearish put on nvidia. The photos there, im going to talk about him and wax poetic but Something Else now, i want to pick up on another american original, Robert F Kennedy junior recently picked up 24,000 worth of game stop. It is the same time, and i had a huge profit on game stop. And they applied that fight. In recent years, protesters burned down cities, city after city after city in spring and summer, encampments on college campuses, the intimidation of people based on their religion. You had both of these protests being supported in some cases by the highest office in the land on college campuses. Kids were afraid to go to school. They are revolting, doing it with their own money, they are not setting anything on fire, not intimidating anyone but wall street hates it. All the other cheerleaders and Financial Media, they hate it. Ive got to be honest, i see commonalities between this and the american revolution. In 1776 the british had all the military advantages. We barely had a navy. The Continental Army was small, the officers were proficient in military tactics. There was no discipline. It was a ragtag army and no navy. The british had everything when it came to the battlefield. They had all the advantages. Financially they were better positioned, american colleges had trouble raising money. If there were oddsmakers back then, odds would be 100 to 1. Todays hedge managers as powerful as the british were back then. Many think he can win. I salute them. Liz claman, over to you. Liz sons of liberty, the best underdogs in history. And we begin with breaking news, after the s p and the nasdaq posted records, and dove to session lows, look at