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Transcripts For FBC WSJ At Large With Gerry Baker 20240712

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Died last week, on the Supreme Court, he and his republican allies plan to cement a conservative majority on that court that will be immune to the shifting tides of political fortunes. The aim, of course, is a justice who seeks not to make laws from the bench, but to interpret the law in the light to have constitution, the guding document that has, after all, formed the foundation of americas rights for almost two and a half centuries. This week well look at how republicans plan to secure the future and the broader implications of the Supreme Court view can city. Later in the show well also take a closer look at the economy. Five weeks out from the election, is the vshaped recovery e weve heard so much about still in place, or as much of the world now braces for a new wave of the virus, are we at risk actually of further lockdowns and, indeed, more economic misery . The white houses chief economic adviser, larry kudlow, will be joining me from washington. As Justice Ginsburg lay in repose at the steps of the Supreme Court this week, the bitterness of the fight to replace her was already apparent. Protesters screamed at President Trump even as he paid his respects. [inaudible] gerry leading democrats came out and declared that republicans had absolutely no right to fill her seat in an Election Year. Now this, of course, wasnt what they said when barack obama moved to fill a Supreme Court vacancy four years ago. The job, first and foremost, is for the president to nominate and for the senate to hold hearings and go through the process. Gerry well, that was then, and thats exactly what republicans plan to do. In fact, the precedent is clear. When the white house and congress are controlled by the same party, its been common practice to confirm a nominee in a president ial Election Year. Even mitt romney, whos been a fierce critic of President Trump and is a potential key swing vote, dismissed suggestions that filling the vacancy should wait until the winner of the election is sworn in in january. Its appropriate to look at the constitution and to look at the are precedent which has existed over, well, since the beginning of the cups history. The garland decision was consistent with that. The decision to continue with President Trumps nominee is also consistent with history. Gerry democrats are now threatening to do something else, theyll saying theyll add numbers to the Supreme Court if joe biden wins and their party takes back the senate in november. Finish democrats, in fact, are demonstrating an increasing willingness to tear down norms and institutions in order to get their political way. Remember, it was the democrats who first removed the Senate Filibuster for judicial appointments of. That was a convention that was designed to create a wider political consensus than a mere simple majority. They now say theyll do away with it completely, even through legislation. Many actually want to do away with the Electoral College that chooses the president. All of this is at peace with the rage weve seen all summer in the streets, in media and academia. Increasingly populated by people who believe the whole american system is ripe to be demolished, a nation founded in oppression and privilege. All of which sets up a remarkable not just political, but philosophical showdown first in the senate and then on election day. Here to discuss all this former assistant attorney andrew mccarthy. Andrew, id like you to frame for us just how significant this moment is. The president gets a chance, his third Supreme Court nominee replacing a very, very liberal progressive justice be presumably a very conservative one. Explain what that means for jurisprudence, for justice, for the law in america. Well, gerry, there hasnt been that kind of a deep turn in one of the seats on the court in probably decades. And what it the big difference i think it makes is that the socalled conservative majority that we have now really not a firm one or a stable one, and it drifts back and forth around the center actually more than being something thats solidly a conservative majority. And the importance of that is that original originalism, which is the doctrine of law that is famously associated with justice scalia, justice burke, ed meese back in the days of the reagan administration, this idea that the law means whatever its public understanding was at the time the relevant provision was either ratified in the constitution or a statute was passed, what have you. The idea is that is what the law is, and courts are not at liberty to change it. So having a firm majority would mean real stability in the law. It wouldnt mean the law couldnt change, but it would mean that congress would have to do the changing rather than the court having extravagant interpretations of the statutes in the constitution. Gerry liberals are up in arms and saying, well, this means its the end of roe v. Wade, the end of obamacare, they create this image of a country thats sort of going back to the 19th century in terms of its values. In practical terms, is that, is it likely that were going to see significantly more conservative rulings from the court in a way that really changes the way the law works . Yeah, i think this hysteria over roe v. Wade which comes around every time a republican president has to make an appointment is really obsolete in the sense that for a quarter century weve actually been under the casey case, not roe v. Wade. And what the arguments are really about are the regulations of the abortion right, not the underlying right itself. Is so when casey was decided in the 1980s, what it did was a basically gut the reasoning of roe, but it left the right in place. And all the litigation since then has been around the right; that is, what kind of restrictions can you legislate and still have those be held constitutional because they dont unduly interfere with the right. So i think the chance of roe v. Wade being reached by a Court Decision are remote. The chance that the Justice Department or the Trump Administration will prevail in the obamacare case is highly, highly unlikely. Not to get too far into the weeds, but i dont think theres really any great doubt that the provision, the mandate is severable from the rest of the obamacare statute, and the thought that the Supreme Court is going to throw that out is very unlikely. Gerry quickly, on the larger question, as you say, what were going to see is more of those decisions, more of the decisions that have come down from the court in the last 30, 40 years, that should be political decisions, and if the states decide they want to do this or congress decides they want to do this, then, sorry, then they will do it politically, will not be will not be jewish curl decisions . Judicial decisions . Yes. I think what youre going to see is the law be more, as far as the jurisprudence is concerned, stable and conservative, and the action moves back to capitol hill. And even if thats radical action, thats the way its supposed to work. Gerry thanks, andrew. Coming up, we take a look in some more dedetail about how the nomination may play out in this Election Year and what the longerterm consequences could who is usaa made for . 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Democrats have loudly protested this process, theyve said that this nomination thats going to be made shouldnt be confirmed by the senate because we should wait until a new Prime Minister is elected. I think president is elected. I think precedent is firmly on Mitch Mcconnell and the republicans side on this, isnt it . Yeah, thats correct. In history when you have the president s Party Controlling the senate, its happened a number of times that we get a judge appointed this way. Gerry but they are, democrats are clearly angry about this, and theres all kinds of talk about a possible response from the democrats, talk about packing the court, the possibility of expanding the number of Supreme Court members, maybe introducing kind of term limits for them. Give us a sense of what democrats are proposing is and what they may do and whether or not you think that would be a wise course. Well, i dont think drastic changes of any kind would be wise. The democrats have been talking, actually, since the kavanaugh debacle that we had a couple of years back expanding the court. That would require them to end the filibuster, so from a conservative perspective, the court would be one thing to be worried about, but ending the filibuster, if they did it for all legislation, would bring in all kinds of problems. I dont know how serious a proposal that is. They seem to be backtracking from it. But the new flavor of the is the idea of term limits, and the idea would be that Supreme Court justices would be limited to 18 years on the bench. I dont think they have a chance of getting that through, certainly unless they were to grandfather the current members of the court. If they didnt do that, then what you would have is in pretty short order the conservative side would lose justices thomas, chief Justice Roberts and Justice Alito within the next few years, and the democrats or the liberal side would only lose Justice Breyer who is 82 years old and likely to retire sometime during a Biden Administration if there is one anyway. So i dont know why republicans would agree to that kind of deal, and i think theyd probably have the votes to stop it. Gerry you think they do. Because they might appeal to someone, 18 years is a relatively long time, you know, we have term limits in [laughter] im sure it does. You think, you dont think republicans would be willing to go along with that. I dont think they would go along with it if what it meant was that those three justices were removed from the court over the next few years. If they grandfathered them in and now were talking about 18year term limits, i think thats something we could talk about, and we should talk about it. Gerry you wrote a piece talking about how this is really, politics really what matters here. As you said, the republicans have a majority in the senate, they can get this through, presumably, but i suppose the risk that democrats, if they do win in november, the presidency and the senate, then they can kind of do what they want too. Ultimate lu, politics is the driving force here, right . I think thats right, gerry. Not only as you have described it in the long term, but i think with this specific issue, it really has to be done before the election because if its after the election, its either the president has lost or, you know, the other pending issue is in the Arizona Senate race if the democrat wins, he gets to be seated immediately. So the three votes that mcconnell can lose now become two at that point. And i think if the president loses the election, itll be hard to stop denext. So i think this either defection. I think this either gets done before the election or it doesnt. Unless the president wins. Gerry thank you very much, andrew mccarthy. Up next, with a vicious Supreme Court fight underway, can congress possibly compromise on a covid relief bill . My next guest says they may not need to. Smooth driving pays off with allstate the safer you drive the more you save youve never been in better hands allstate click or call for a quote today groans hmph. food grunting menacingly when the food you love doesnt love you back, stay smooth and fight heartburn fast with tums smoothies. Tum tumtum tum tums everything we have, weve earned. The unmistakable lexus is. Get zero percent financing on the 2020 is 300. Experience amazing at your lexus dealer. Its time for aerotrainer, with your weight and health . 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House democrats met with Speaker Nancy Pelosi saying they will release a smaller package next week if no deal is made with republicans before then. Meanwhile, the Economic Data showed the economy with tepid momentum. Weekly jobless claims were up slightly this week, suggesting that the economic bounceback that was so robust over the summer could be stalling. What about further stimulus, do we need it . Are we still on course for that vshaped recovery, or is it going l are or, dare i say, pareshaped . Pareshaped . Larry rudd coe, thanks for joining me kudlow. We had very strong economic numbers through the summer, may, june, july, most of august. And recently weve seen a bit of a softening, jobless claims seem to be holding steady. We are seeing maybe some increasing covid cases, some concerns that we could be in for, you know, a difficult autumn. Are you still confident were on course for that vshaped recovery . I am, im still confident about the vshaped recovery. You know, on the case rate, theres been some increases in the college towns, but theyre all quarantined, were targeting it and working with the local communities on that. Theres been no increase in fatalities, theres been no increase in hospitalizations, so its really quite well contained at this point. On the jobless claims, your report is quite true, but i will say this, the weekly claims are subject to a lot of difficulty coming out of california where there own people are reporting a good deal of fraud. The continuing claim, that is the actual payments for unemployed, continue to come down significantly. So i still take that as a big plus. Weve created 14 million new jobs in the past four months. Theres more work to be done, dont get me wrong, more people to get back to work. But i think were making great progress. Gerry lets talk about that work. Youre reasonably optimistic about the recovery, but we saw on capitol hill this week your colleague, treasury is secretary steve mnuchin, lets listen on the topic of whether or not more stimulus is needed, another package is needed. Lets listen to what he said just very briefly. We continue to work with congress on a bipartisan basis to pass a phase four relief package. I believe a targeted package is still needed, and the administration is ready to reach a bipartisan agreement. Gerry you think, do you agree that a package, more stimulus is needed . Well, look, i agree with secretary mnuchin about the targets. Thats really, you know, weve had a smart, targeted package all along. Just parenthetically, i dont think the vshape recovery requires some massive new stimulus package. But, but congress could help us lets say extend aid to Small Businesses through the ppp program where theres, by the way, unused funds from the last round, putting money into schools, k12, for example, with respect to covid alignments. We need education, they need it socially, the parents need it chick economically. The economically. The president said he would favor if it comes back some kind of direct check program. No, theres some targeted areas that could be a big help. Wed like to see some unemployment assistance legislated by the congress. We dont want some massive 3 trillion package thats not going to work. Thats not what we need. The economy doesnt need it either. But theyre talking, you know, theyre talking i spoke to secretary mnuchin this morning, theyre talking. No progress e yet, but well see what happens. Gerry so we could get some targeted measures sometime in the next week or two, is that what youre saying . I just cant yet go there, gerry, i cant. I mean, its just not there. Id like to go there, but i dont want to get ahead of that curve when its just not there. Now, the continuing resolution is there. There will be no government shutdown, its a clean bill, the senate will vote on wednesday, i believe, to get that passed. So we dont have to worry about any government shutdowns. On another phase four cares package, etc. , that one i dont know. Honestly, i dont know. Gerry well, wed love you to go there, but we with understand that you cant, and thank you very much for joining us, larry. Thanks for that. Coming up, the duke and duchess of sussex are staging an intervention in american politics. You might think the royal family so youre a small business, or a big one. You were thriving, but then. Oh. Ah. Okay. Plan, pivot. How do you bounce back . You dont, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. Powered by the largest gig Speed Network in america. But is it secure . Sure its secure. And even if the power goes down, your connection doesnt. So how do i do this . You dont do this. We do this, together. Bounce forward, with comcast business. Noand if youre troubledan a liby falls and bleeds,ners. Worry follows you everywhere. Over 100,000 people have left blood thinners behind with watchman. Its a onetime, minimally invasive procedure that reduces stroke risk and bleeding worryfor life. Watchman. Its one time. For a lifetime. i need it so bad dont call it a hobby. Its way more than just a job. This is how we live every single day. Can we go and play . roaring of engines i needed to try needed to fall i needed your love im burning away i need never get old [ engine rumbling ] [ beeping ] [ engine revs ] uh, you know theres a 30minute limit, right . Tell that to the rain. [ beeping ] for those who were born to ride, theres progressive. Gerry the duke of sussex, formerly known as prince march ily, and his wife, the duchess, were back lecturing this week from one of the e elegant palaces in los angeles. When the bad outweighs the good, for many whether we realize it or not it erodes our ability to have compassion. Its vital that we reject hate speech and online negativity. Gerry unlike your humble host, harry received a very expensive education. Between playing strange games that involve rolling around in a lot of mud, the prince presumably was also taught some history. If he did, he presumably learned that americans have demonstrated something of a distaste for being told what to do from royals. And if the prince didnt, obviously members of the Theatrical Community now, and they must have at least seen the musical hamilton. Remember those words, youll be back, i will fight the fight and win the war. Thats what he says to his dislow call subjects. Loyal subjectings. His intervention, which was a thin luveiled instruction not to vote for President Trump, may prove ill advised. It didnt end well for royalty back then. Best advice is to stick to smiling for the cameras, staying out of politics. That is, after all, how the britains ancestors, at least since george iii, have managed to stay in business for so long. Thats it for us this week. Be sure to follow me on twitter, facebook and instagram, and ill be back next week right here on the wall street journal at large. Thank you very much for joining us. Jack welcome to bare rons round taik where we get behind the headlines and prepare you for the week ahead. Im jack otter. Coming up, andy sieg on how to reduce risk in a turbulent market, and which companies are leading the pack in a vaccine . We begin with what we think are the three most important things investors should be talking about right now. The s p edged correction territory, how things are affectinth

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