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Transcripts For FBC Barrons Roundtable 20240712

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Disclosed his firm, what that thens for the stock, and a rough week for banks. Reports of suspicious transactions and backlash against wells fargo ceo, but there could be some positive factors ahead. My colleagues, ben levisohn, carlton english. Ben, im going to start with you. Weve been chatting this week about the market, and you kept on saying stocks are behaving in a weird way. Whats so unusual in. The week started pretty badly, fears about covid resurgence in europe that really knocked the market down. It built with the questions about economic stimulus and the likelihood that we wont get any, fears about the economy, about the election. And the market kept dropping, and it really looked like good news wasnt going to matter much. Nikes earnings were great, it didnt help the overall market. Darden, which owns the olive garden, it reinstated its dividend, this is a restaurant stock. But, again, that didnt have any big effect on the market. And even when california announced that it was going to ban fossil fuels for cars by 2035, it didnt help tesla which was down about 10 on thursday. The market couldnt fall that hard. It kept trying to bid down 10 , a level we call a correction, but it wouldnt stay there. It kept bouncing back up off that level. And then finally on friday we got a really big bounce in the market so that the nasdaq actually finished the week in positive territory. And the s p 500, though down for a fourth week in a row, was down less than 1 . Jack ben, when the market goes down 9. 9 and then rallies and does it over and over, its really interesting. I mean, im of the camp of those people who say that Technical Analysis is about as reable to liable as read reliable as reading sheep entrails, but theres a Behavioral Analysis that explains why this goes on. Thats right. People are looking at these levels. Its traders, its portfolio managers. They bought stocks, perhaps before the market had these runs. Theyre sitting on profits, and theyre trying to decide do i take profits, do i not take profits, can i keep holding on. When you see a level like this break, 10 level is also a support level based on another technical metric, everybody could start selling at once. The fact that it held was a very good sign for the market. Jack carlton, one sign of maybe normality coming back to the market, and that is activist investors flexing their muscles once again. Yeah. So it was really interesting in the first half of the year we saw activist activity drop by about 40 , but this week we saw two campaigns launched to. Elliot management and then nelson pelts partners initiated a stake in comcast. Waiting on the sidelines to see what opportunities would emerge as markets start to recover. Jack one thing about peltz, when you go after somebody like comcast, its hard to amass a big stake, but a lot of that stake is owned by the roberts family. How to you make change happen in that situationsome. Its going to be a tough lift for peltz. Hes been in this situation before. Hes gone after Large Companies like General Electric and Procter Gamble and dow dupont. So the thug he might be thinking he might be pushing for the company to break itself up. It has its broadband business, but that entertainment business that houses Nbc Universal and sky, thats been troubling a little bit. You know, theme parks are closed, three e yachtly call releases have been pushed back, sports werent really happening, the fall tv lineup is a little different, so he could be targeting Something Like that or pushing for a cost cut at the company. Jack gotcha. Lets talk about banks. Waiting for the turn around but they just cant catch a break. Headlines definitely dont help that unloved category. Earlier this week we had a report detailing 2 trillion in suspicious transactions, nearly 20 years, several big banks including Deutsche Bank and jpmorgan, raising questions about money laundering. Analysts downplayed the report, but it could bring more scrutiny to the industry, and we saw a backlash against wells fargos ceo where he i attributed the difficulty in hiring minorities to a, quoteunquote, very limited pool of black talent, of course, everyones grappling with Racial Justice and lack of diversity in the Financial Services industry, and guesserty experts really see this as an excuse. You know, theres plenty of talent out there, perhaps the banks are not looking for it. And, you know, not attracted to but in general its been a rough go for the banks. Jack at the same time, earnings are actually looking decent. Yeah. Even if you look back over the last three years prior to the pandemic, the spider bank etf had 20 average earn growth, but the etf was down 30 over that time period. So we have some good things coming around. Were seeing goldman sachss, for example, upgraded at ubs, really a surge in Trading Volume that help it. Jack well be watching carefully. Banks are the cheapest sector in the s p 500. Coming up, what Merrill Lynch Wealth Advisers are telling nest clients. Andy sieg joins me next. So youre a small business, or a big one. You were thriving, but then. Oh. Ah. Okay. Plan, pivot. How do you bounce back . You dont, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. Powered by the largest gig Speed Network in america. But is it secure . Sure its secure. And even if the power goes down, your connection doesnt. So how do i do this . You dont do this. We do this, together. Bounce forward, with comcast business. Noand if youre troubledan a liby falls and bleeds,ners. Worry follows you everywhere. Over 100,000 people have left blood thinners behind with watchman. Its a onetime, minimally invasive procedure that reduces stroke risk and bleeding worryfor life. Watchman. Its one time. For a lifetime. groans hmph. food grunting menacingly when the food you love doesnt love you back, stay smooth and fight heartburn fast with tums smoothies. Tum tumtum tum tums smooth driving pays off with allstate the safer you drive the more you save youve never been in better hands allstate click or call for a quote today jack the combination of market volatility, covid19 concerns and the upcoming election can be extremely unnerving to investors. Merrill lynch Wealth Management president andy sieg joins me now. Thanks so much for joining us. All those things, elections, covid, everything else, you have 15,000 advisers, i think its about 2. 5 trillion in client assets theyre managing. What are they doing to calm investors who are worried about all this stuff theyre seeing on the horizon . Well, hey, jack, its a great question. Wonderful to be here. More important even than the number of advisers is our client base which is over a million High Net Worth and ultraHigh Net Worth people in the u. S. I have just deep admiration for the way they have weathered the pandemic, and ill tell you, watching them today were very bullish. Were bullish about the economy and about markets. They feel good about their businesses and the way theyve recovered from the depths of the sprung and early summer spring and early summer, and people are relatively they are not overly aggressive in terms of investing in the stock market right now. And that is, as a contrarian, a bullish sign. Jack right. When everybody gets too excited is when you get worried. What about clients who have trouble sleeping at night . Right now, jack, if you have a time horizon thats longer than three months, this is a time to be bullish. However, we all see what could be coming. Theres uncertainty around the virus, a around the election, and we should expect these markets to be sloppy. Our cio likes to call this a little bit of a quick sand moment. This is not a time for a lot of Movement Side to side. You know, this is a time to stick to your time horizon, your risk profile. But constructive about equities because we think equities will continue to be the story here for the decade. 20s been a tough year 2020s been a tough year, we think the 20s are going to be phenomenal for the u. S. Economy and the markets. Jack any mar Asset Classes particular Asset Classes meryl likes . I think merrill likes . I think there are some extraordinary stories. Lets just think about manufacturing in the u. S. Theres been a discussion for years about reshoring supply chains. You know, postpandemic that story is maturing very fast. We expect to see over a million a trillion dollars invested to bring supply chains back to the u. S. Thats going to be a boon for the heartland and a for manufacturing businesses and a boon for manufacturing businesses and businesses that supply them. For every dollar thats invested in the kind of infrastructure to reshore a supply chain, that has a Multiplier Effect in terms of jobs and economic impact. Jack one innovation weve seen in recent years is the roboadviser. Low price, can manage money pretty well. Make the case for hiring a human and paying more. Well, i mean, hey, the case is a lot like the reason we all still go to the doctor. Theres technologys had an enormous, positive impact on the Health Care Business as it is, as it has in our business. However, you know, when clients, when they sit down and when they really want to talk about what matters in their life, they want to have a dialogue with someone who really understands what makes them tick. Its the same reason you go to the doctor. You may know something about your condition from web md or an online service, but you want to sit down and have that put into the context of your personal situation, your future, somebody who knows you well. You know, and knows you well in our business not just financially, but emotionally, what keeps you up at night, what are the hopes and dreams that you and your family have, and how can you bring not just focus to the way youre investing, but the rest of your financial plan. How youre borrowing, you know, where youre saving, how your personal financial situation and you day job interact with each other. Jack andy, look, i know you run a different part of the business, but i do want to ask you about this big story that broke. You are a senior, you know, official executive at bank of america, and buzzfeed reported on 2 trillion of suspicious transactions at big global banks over about two decades. Why cant the financial industry do more to stop this kind of activity . Well, i mean, jack, i appreciate you asking the question. There are a lot of laws around in that preclude what were in position to say publicly. What i will say, however, is we have extensive policies, processes, procedures that insures when we see any transaction that a appears to be inappropriate, you know, we make that known to government officials. And, you know, that is at the very core of the culture at bank of america and Merrill Lynch. Jack i cant let andy sieg go without asking about the big ten, new chance your Nittany Lions can beat ohio state . Im bullish about that. Im thrilled to see the lions back on the field, the big ten playing, and theyre doing the right way with a lot of protocols in place. I had a conversation earlier in the week with the penn state coach, james franklin, coincidentally, and hes doing an incredible job. Pretty optimistic about what the seasons going to look like. Jack well, good luck. Andy, thanks for joining us. Thank you. 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Jack barrons recently held a round table with experts that dove into the science and investing opportunities involved in the development of a covid19 vaccine. One of those e experts is here, svb, dr. Jeff porges joins us now. Thanks for coming in, jeff. Thanks for having me, jack with. Jack i need to start with the question everybody is asking, when will we get a covid19 vaccine . Well, the timing, i think, has really narrowed. We have a number of companies who have a pretty high degree of confidence that they will have at least preliminary indications of efficacy for a Covid Vaccine probably in the next month and a half or so. Those companies are pfizer and probably also moderna and possibly j j. Now, you have to remember this is preliminary data, very early, but its also pretty exciting that we could see whether these vaccines actually prevent the disease. Jack absolutely. On a different note, for all the horror of coronavirus, there have been some really exciting developments that were sort of kickstarted by the work on coronavirus. Can you explain at least one of those . Yeah. Look, its interesting, its axiomatic, but Technology Advances most rapidly in a time of crisis, typically in war. But this is still a crisis of a different dimension. Weve seen remarkable progress. The speed with which these Clinical Trials have been deployed, and the speed of advancing into the clinic, frankly, it is, indeed, remarkable. We have multiple vaccines in the clinic. Thats going to lead to lasting changes in how drugs are discovered and developed. Well be using electronic data ways much databases much more aggressively, were going to be Going National in terms of recruitment much quicker than in the past, and this mra technology really hope is es the opportunity that we can move in a matter of months, not the typical years thats usually involved. Jack can you give us an example of one stock that you think the market is underestimating it potential in your field . Yeah. In the Coronavirus Vaccine field, there are a number of companies involved, and i think, actually, the market has pretty much discounted all the opportunity in those stocks. You know, theres some Smaller Companies that are partnered up, so, for example, translate bio has partnered up with sanofi, participating through those Smaller Companies, and if you want to go a little more out on a limb, there are emerging companies such as know v. A. Advantages novavax, they could be in phase three by christmas time which puts them maybe three or four months behind the leaders. Thats pretty remarkable for a company that was really, you know, a very Small Company at the beginning of the year. Jack i want to go to the rest of the panel for a quick lightning round. Geoff was just one of four experts. Ben, can you give us a stock pick that somebody else mentioned . Sure, the Health Care Sector leader at my if dellty investments, he likes humana. The insurance company, its a leading seller of Medicare Advantage plans, and its going to benefit from the aging population in the united states. And during the covid crisis, its been making sure that seniors are getting their food, theyre making sure that theyre getting their prescriptions and seeing the specialists they need. He calls that a win win for stakeholders and shareholders too. Jack reshma . The founder of an Investment Firm focused on biosciences likes chinas large provider of molecular tests, and its really a way to invest in chinas biotech industry. This is a recent ipo, but the u. S. china tensions have taken it off its highs. Jack carlton, what caught your eye . This is one that ely likes and also abby, she has her eye on revolution medicines. The company went public earlier this year, its focused on cancer treatment, and its a 500 Million Development deal with sanofi, 325 million cash on the balance sheet, and it could be a gamechanger in cancer treatments. Jack geoff, in less than a minute, can you tell us about the skepticism that were seeing about vaccines . What do you think of that, and what can we do about it . Yeah, this is a big concern. Up to 50 of the u. S. Population has indicated they would not be willing to take a Covid Vaccine. We have to do absolutely everything to restore confidence in both the regulation of the vaccines and also the manufacturing if development. That means that we cannot give the appearance or have the reality of taking shortcuts. We really need e these large trials to continue, not to be truncated or shut down, to continue to reassure people that even when tens of thousands of people receive these vaccines, theyre safe, theres no untoward consequences, and they provide lasting protection. If were transparent about that data, peoples confidence will go up. Jack first do no harm. Thanks very much for your insight, geoff. Thank you. Jack up next, round table members give their investment ideas for the coming week. Stay right there. [ thunder clap ] greetings mortal your journey requires liberty mutual. They customize your Car Insurance so you only pay for what you need. Liberty power wow. That will save me lots of money. Youre insured this games boring. Lets get tacos. Only pay for what you need. Liberty. Liberty. Liberty. Liberty. Here . Nah. Here . Nope. Here. When the middle of nowhere. Is somewhere. The allnew chevy trailblazer. Jack in barrons tradition, we want to leave you with at least one actionable idea. Carlton, im going to start with you. Well, i am focusing on snack foods. I am looking at conagra this week. We just got positive data from general mills, and i think packaged foods are still poised to do well. You look at conagra, it has a lot of snacks and Breakfast Foods in its portfolio, two very strong categories. And also its been able to continue paying its dividend, and, you know, i really enjoy some swiss miss for the Holiday Season too. Jack ive heard youve been tucking into the popcorn as well. [laughter] i have. Ive got to have my big bowl of orr absolutely redenbacher as well. Jack ben, what are you lookingt this week . Costco reported earnings last night, numbers were fantastic. The stock dropped today, down more than 2 at one point, though it finished a lot less than that. But its one of those stocks where, you know, it often falls after reporting good numbers, and its usually a buying opportunity. Its a stock that just tends to go up over time and, yes, there are sometimes concerns about valuation and things like that. But they turn out to be buying opportunities. Jack its a really interesting company. Obviously, its doing well on online retail. One cool thing about the company is it loses less to shoplifting than most retailers, and that ease but because you have to bea member to join, so they have got your information. Thats right. Andrew berry, one of our writers, wrote a story and it was fascinate dog see how theyre able to strive their profits and their profitability by being very good about that. Jack reshma, what are you looking at . Efa, strategists have been allocating more to europe and japan, citing cheaper valuations. And these are markets geared towards sectors that will benefit early from an economic recovery. From plus, these markets have been ignored for years, and its the perfect anecdote to the crowded u. S. Tech trade. Jack thats a good idea. Ben, carlton, reshma, thank you so much. Check out this weeks edition at barrons. Com, and dont forget to follow us on twitter barronsonline. Wear your mask, see you next week on barrons roundtable. From the fox studios in new york city, this is maria bartiromos wall street. Maria and happy weekend to all. Welcome to the program that analyzes the week that was and helps position you for the week ahead. Im maria bart row mow. Great to have everybody this weekend bartiromo. My interview with the secretary of hhs, human health and Services Secretary alex azar on the race for a covid19 vaccine, and later, a noholdsbarred interview with mark levin, the state of the election today. But first, lets take a look back at some of the weeks big moments on

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