First. It was too aggressive, it was too soon, and were paying for it not just in georgia, but were paying for it across the country x people are paying for it with their lives. But in georgia and nationwide, daily covid fatalities are nowhere near the spring pace. When it comes to closing schools, the doctors most responsible for saving the lyes of young people lives of young people represented by the American Academy of pediatrics are not for reimposing the lockdown. The docs understand that risks are relatively low, kids need education and also there are other Health Threats beyond covid. Economic shutdowns, high joblessness and personal isolation are not good for our health. Here in new york city where more than 60 people were hot over the july 4th holiday, even our leftist mayor bill de blasio seems to acknowledge the negative impact of our shuttered society. But we also saw too much violence this weekend, and its directly related to all that this location thats happened over these last four months with the coronavirus. President trump is correctly telling schools nationwide that they ought to reopen which is key to allowing many parents to return to work. The president is also urging payroll tax cuts to increase the incentives for companies to hire and for individuals to come back to work. The Unemployment Rate has declined since the spring shutdown but still remains above 111 , historically high 11 . Yet somehow stocks also remain historically high. In fact, the three month period ending in june was the best quarter for the Dow Jones Industrial average in more than 30 years. After plunging in march on pandemic worries, stocks have roared back with the nasdaq posting a series of record highs into july. But could the Election Campaign short circuit the rally . The New York Times reported this week that investors are starting to be concerned about the possibility of a joe Biden Victory in november given his proposals for higher taxes and more government regulation. And as you might expect, the president is plague on those fears tweeting if you want your 401 k s and stocks to disintegrate and disappear, vote for the radical left donothing democrats and corrupt joe biden. They make you very poor fast. Would a biden win really be that bad, and whatever happens in november, how can we restart the american jobs machine right now . Here to talk about the recipe for a rebounding economy is the director of the National Economic council, larry kudlow, who comes to us from the north lawn of the white house. Larry, thanks for joining us. Great pleasure, james. Thank you. James so i want to take you back to candidate donald trump in 2015. He said i will be the greatest jobs president god ever created. Now, some people may have thought that was kind of over the top, but two years and seven months later the United States hit an alltime high in the number of job openings in this country. Obviously, the covid shutdowns have disrupted that jobs machine. How do we reignite it right now and get more people back to work . Well, a couple things. Great questions. 2017, 2018, 2019 and the first two months of 2020 we had a 3. 5 emmeoyate, wead plmentor raldordor l caafnamafaners,s,iscs,cs, iansas,omen,enpl peoplhoutit schoo s doo sesre are s s s h. Rt as p wbaroba they best b econo e lt lst generatn i notf re. Mo moat wmo d doneee by reduc rinin marginal taxal r on corpatrpns lnsgensgege andmall, indiinduals,oms,s,e reform and simplification of regulations, rollback of regs, independent Energy Sector and fair and reciprocal trade deals, usmca just went into place july 1. We had the mexican president here two days ago. All those were big plus for the economy. We had record stock market for the economy. All that was terrific until the pandemic came. Let me just say two quick things on this point. Number one, we must, we must not go back to high taxes and high regulations. We must not do that. It defies common sense after this pandemic contraction. Number two, my view is right now the best path to opening businesses, to creating jobs and to rebuild a healthy economy is that folks across the country particularly in the hot spots in the south and southwest, some other places too, very simple guidelines. Lets go back to them, lets not forget them. Face coverings, social distancing, testing and personal hygiene. Four simple mitigating actions that will quell the rise in cases in these hot spot counties and areas. As you said, so far the fatality rates remain very, very low. Thats a good sign. But we must not forget, i cant emphasize this enough, you want a healthier economy . You want jobs to resume . You want businesses to reopen . Then stay with the guidelines that the president and the Vice President have put out and, frankly, most of the governors observe. Lets not forget that, james. Thats all i want to say. James okay. I think were all for observing the Common Sense Solutions to avoid spreading the virus. But as weve been discussing, key e to a reopening allowing people to go back to work is having schools open. We have pediatricians saying, look, these lockdowns have not been healthy for kids. But i think there is also an economic case here. We know that when kids arent in school, were essentially robbing them of future earnings because theyre not learning, theyre not acquiring skills. The pediatricians are saying its healthier, the goal should be to get kids in school, but is there an economic case here to say long term these kids are going to benefit if theyre getting that education . Well, i think thats right. Look, i think the pediatricians are right. President trump is pressing very, very hard to reopen all the schools, you know, k12. Frankly, i dont understand some of these colleges. They should be making plans, using these guidelines to reopen. In terms of your point on the economy, youre right. We dont want to slow or, you know, retard education particularly in the k12 area because this is the future work force, and they have stuff to learn. Basic learning. Its such a thing thats still possible in the United States. History, arithmetic, reading, you know, lets hope and pray that teachers teach, and lets hope and pray the students get to work. Get to school. Theres another thing here. Single moms, you know, single moms have to go to work. God bless em. But if their children are home, what are they going to do . Maybe they cant afford an au pair, a babysitter or some assistance on that. Thats another economic reason. We want to create all the jobs, get folks on temporary layoffs and furloughs back to work, but if the kids are home, that could be a great burden. I think particularly for single moms. Frankly, for traditional familyings as well. So there are a million reasons why getting back to school is absolutely crucial. Look, we will not, the president will not reshutter the economy. He will not. And, hopefully, the governors wont either. I think we learned our lesson. You dont want the cure to be worse than the disease. But again, james, i dont mean to beat a broken record, but its very important. The simple points of best practices guidance on face coverings and so fort and the distancing and the testing, i mean, were testing, i think, 700,000 per day now. All those things make us better than we were last march and april. This is very containable and manageable if people just exercise common sense and respect for others. James okay. Larry, yeah, please stay with us. We need to take a short break with. When we come back, were going to talk a little bit more about growth and also about trade in how they gonna pay for this . They will, but with accident forgiveness allstate wont raise your rates just because of an accident. Cut is that good . No you were talking about allstate and. I just. When i. Accident forgiveness from allstate. Click or call for a quote today. To visit all the places we didnt know meant so much. S to get out and go again. Accident forgiveness from allstate. But were all going at our own speed. At enterprise, peaceofmind starts with our complete clean pledge, curbside rentals and lowtouch transactions. With so many vehicles of so many kinds, you can count on us to help you get everywhere you want to go. Again. Whenever youre ready, were ready for you. Enterprise. My money should work as hard as i do. Thats why i use my freedom unlimited card every time i get gas. Give me a little slack with freedom unlimited, youre always earning. I said i need some slack on pump three james our guest is president trumps top economic adviser, larry kudlow. Larry, thanks again for being here. We were talking about the fact investors are starting to look at the impact of this falls election. I want to talk about the trump agenda for a second term. But, first, are you a little surprised given the shape of the economy just now on the mend from coronavirus that joe biden is sticking with the plan, his plan to raise taxes by 4 trillion . Well, im not really surprised because i know whos on his staff, and i know whos been working on his socalled policy committees. You know, youve got a lot of Bernie Sanders people, youve got a lot of Elizabeth Warren people, a lot of aol people. Look, i respect them, and they have a right to do a what theyre doing. But mr. Binds going to be raising mr. Bidens going to be raising taxes across the board and then some. He said yesterday with, the day before, he wants to end something called shareholder capitalism. We used to call that the investor class. If you buy for the long run, you make a fortune for retirement. Hes going to raise taxes on big business, Small Business and individuals and investment, cap gains and dividends. Theyre going to go back to the Green New Deal james okay. But we want to know what is the trump second term agenda . Youve talked about how much success you had precovid with tax and regulatory ree form. Im assuming not the 4 trillion tax increase biden is suggesting. What are we going to get in the trump second term . Could we see e a lower Corporate Income tax rate . Well, look, were planning on all that right now. Weve got talks coming up on the hill. Weve got to get through that hurdle first, and then there will be we are also working on Campaign Messaging for the second term. James, we have a vshaped recovery. Assuming we get this pandemic down, were going to be in great shape. Employment, unemployment looks great, housing looks great, retail sales, car sales, housing, almost every indicator is showing a vshaped recovery. We could score 20 growth in the second half. Moving to 2021, good policies will give us a bang recovery. I think you will see additional tax cuts, all right . Thats the president s agenda. Hes already said he wont sign a bill with Congress Unless it has a payroll tax holiday in it, so thats a starter, a little appetizer leading into the campaign. There may be Capital Gains relief, there may be Capital Gains holidays. We will provide assistance probably for those at the lowest rungs of the ladder. Our policies help low wage earners, youre going to continue to see that. Much more reregulation james deregulation i assume you meant. Deregulation, i beg your pardon. Theres a spate of executive orders coming. James weve got to go, but you been wanting u. S. Investors in Retirement Funds about investing in china. Do you think it is just unwise for a u. S. Investor to invest in china right now . Well, look, i think it is unwise right now. For many years, not just our years, before president trump, the sec and the Public Accounting board have been criticizing china for fraudulent accounting, for weak standards, for a lack of transparency. And youve got to bring that to investors attention. And thats what we have done. National security adviser Robert Obrien and i, we did write letters to the sec, to the thrift savings plan and lately the Railroad Retirement plan. We have a working group going on that will continue to press these issues. Theres too much economic risk in these Chinese Companies right now. Furthermore, many of them pose National Security threats. I really dont want u. S. Investors to build up chinas military, for heaven sakes, given all the problems with hong kong, the South China Sea e and what not. So were just saying no fraud, more visibility. You cant report all your information to the communist government in china. Those things have to be solved before we can turn a green light back on for chinese investment. Its the Investor Protection if, james. Thats the key theme. James okay. Thanks, larry. Appreciate it. And up next, well be talking to one of the most influential women in the influential women in the financial world aboutututut the new house is amazing. So much character. Original crown molding, walk in closets. We do have a ratt problem. Round and round with love well find a way, just give it time. At least geico makes bundling our home and Car Insurance easy. It does help us save. Round and round with love well find a way, just give it time. Round and round what comes around, goes around. For bundling made easy, go to geico. Com i am totally blind. And non24 can make me show up too early. Or too late. Or make me feel like im not really there. Talk to your doctor, and call 8442342424. Millions of men are keeping their hair thanks to proven hair loss treatments, and you can to thanks to keeps. Get Online Access to a physician and fdaapproved treatments delivered right to your door, safely and affordably. Go to keeps. Com tv to learn more. James its been a rough year for america, but stocks remain near record highs. Penny pennington is the managing partner of the Investment Firm edward jones. Shes also been recognized as one of the most influential women in u. S. Finance by our corporate cousins at barrons magazine. Penny, thanks for joining us. Its a pleasure to be with you. James so i dont mean to sound like a pessimist, but i look at the stock market, and given that the con seven us is that consensus is that the u. S. Economy shrank by roughly a third in the second quarter, weve seen all of the statistics, the economic devastation the resulting from covid, yet here we are with the nasdaq hitting records frequently, all stocks across the board basically seem to be valued pretty highly relative to their earnings. Is this a reasonable judgment that long term the u. S. Economy is sound . Is well, i think the thing to remember, james, is that before the effects of covid, fundamentally the companies in our country represented in the stock market were in very good shape. The economy was in very good shape. And if as you said, weve taken a beaten as a result of covid19 and the shutdown, the intentional shutdown of businesses. We did see the worst stock market for about a month, and weve now seen the greatest recovery in the stock market since 1987. Pretty extraordinary. Right now the market, the market is always forwardlooking. The market right now is pricing in a fairly smooth recovery to the economy. I think its likely to be a little bit bump questioner than that. Were bumpier than that. Were seeing the effects of closing and reopening and closing the economy right now. And the stock market will bear that over the coming months. We feel that the recession that weve been in were coming out of, that the third and fourth quarters will be strong. Companies have got to figure out how to, how to forecast their earnings and what to expect in an environment like that. Thats a little more challenging. So its going to be a bit of a bumpy ride. James okay. I think some people would say that a big reason for this is the Federal Reserve has expanded its Balance Sheet of more than 7 trillion now. Thats a lot of money creation. A lot of that money may be going into stocks, and i think some people would say should we expect a reckoning at some point. Is there kind of an unreal quality that stocks have been sort of inflated in part by the fed . Well, im not sure inflated by the fed. I think that those companies in part because of their own planning, their own cost cutting and their own approach to reopening, some of those Companies Represented in the stock market are recovering quite well. And theyre reaping the benefits of that. And shareholders are reaping the benefits of that. There are some parts of our economy that are going to take much longer to recover. Entertainment, the cruise industry, those kinds of businesses that require people inside their doors are going to take a little bit longer to recover. James okay. Now as investors try to handicap the election, im wondering how much you think this should factor into their planning, longterm planning or maybe not so long term. President trump saying more tax and regulatory relief, former Vice President biden saying tax hikes. And as i read his thursday remarks, i think hes saying the trump tariffs are not going away if he gets elected. Do you encourage investors to pay e attention to that, or do you say long term americas going to be fine whatever happens in november . Well, thats what has been proven out in the past, james. We say dont play politics with your portfolio. No matter who is in the white house or what administrations prevail, longterm orientation to your plan, to what to understanding whats most important to you and putting together a plan with good Financial Advice to achieve that is going to withstand the ups and downs of whatever administration is in the office. James okay. Lets hope so. Penny, thanks so much for joining us. Pleasure to be with you, james. James and coming up next, were going to explain why people who have been bad mouthing america are makinininin i like liberty mutual. They get that no two people are alike and customize your Car Insurance so you only pay for what you need. What do you think . I dont see it. Only pay for what you need. Liberty. Liberty. Liberty. Liberty. [camera man] actually anyone 50 or over is at increased risk for shingles. The pain, the burning my husband had to do everything for weeks. And the thing is, theres nothing you can do about it [camera man] well, shingles can be prevented. Shingles can be whaaat . [camera man] prevented. You can get vaccinated. Frank they have shingles vaccines whaaat . Thats what i said. Were taking you to the doctor. Not going through that again. [camera man] you can also get it from your pharmacist talk to your doctor or pharmacist about getting vaccinated. In a highly capable lexus suv at the golden opportunity sales event. Lease the 2020 nx 300 for 339 a month for 36 months. Experience amazing at your lexus dealer. James its been a pleasure filling in for gerry, and the good news is even though hes not here, we can still enjoy his comments. This week he wrote a column called defend americas history and retake its institutions. Youre probably well aware of the problem. As gerry notes, many of the leaders of large institutions, quote view america as a Malignant Force for enslavement and oppression, a uniquelyville power founded on an ideology of racial supremacy, unquote. This fiction has gained currency in part because much of the American Academic establishment has spent decades end youngerring students encouraging students to hate our country. Its a problem we need to overcome. While americans were ignoring this problem, they were solving so many others. As gerry reminds us, over the last century the United States, quote liberated half the planet from historys most dehumanizing ideologies, advanced a free market capitalism that led more humans out of poverty than any Economic System ever devised and given the world the richest bounty of intellectual, cultural, scientific capital since the enlightenment. Not bad. As we go forward, lets also remember the big advantage we have over the opponents of american constitutional liberty. Our ideas work and theirs dont. Thats it for us this week. For the latest show updates, be sure to follow us on twitter, facebook and instagram. Well be back next week right here at the wall street journal at large. Im james freeman. Thanks for joining us. Jack welcome to barrons round talking about where we get behind the headlines and prepare you for the week with ahead. Im jack otter. The nasdaq hitting record highs this week, the future of red hot tech stocks. We begin with what we think are the three most important things investors should be thinking about right now. Stock pick pers say they do best in aing volatile market. Well, they sure have one now. A round table of top investors gave us their picks. Shares of tesla and other electric vehicle makers have been racing higher, and the covid19 crisis has
comparemela.com © 2020. All Rights Reserved.