A significant chunk well into the millions, i dont want to give you a number because its going to be a guest but well into the millions. People who dont get to go back to their old job and in fact there may not be a job in the industry for them for some time, there eventually will be but there could be some years before we get back to those people finding jobs. Maria joining me now to talk about the economy and how to invest is a professor of finance of the school of university of pennsylvania jeremy siegel, it is great to see you this morning. Thank you so much for being with me. Good morning, happy to be here. Maria lets talk about what we heard this week, we had the Federal Reserve say there will be millions of people unable to get back to their jobs for many years, they may very well not get back into the same job, you had on thursday another round of unemployment benefits, one and a half million additional people filed for unappointed benefits and of course they market selloff as well, your reaction to where we are today in terms of the backdrop for investing in the economy. I believe the provision of liquidity by the fed has been enormous, far greater than what we sell during the financial crisis, maria, the monetary statistics i looked at for instance, m1 and m2 includes transactions, payroll, these are the debit account, the Bank Accounts of individual businesses are up 25 in eight weeks. In the whole year of the financial crisis after lehman went under, they were only up 15 . Already orders or magnitude on liquidity, i think liquidity is going to break into the economy in 2021 and it will give us a much Stronger Economic picture than the gloomy picture that powell picked yesterday and i actually think it is the reason why the stock market has really done so well. Maria all of this the quiddity, 10 trillion when you look at the liquidity coming from the congress and all of the relief packages in the leverage that you got at the Federal Reserve, has been one of the reasons weve had the melt up in markets in the middle of the shutdown, how long do you think it will take, when you look at the reopening across the country, when would you expect in normalization . I do agree with powell that there will be a lot of people out of work for a long time, a lot of firms will discover they dont need all the people that they had. And they are not going to hire them back, even if business comes back, and we know certain things like certain types of Business Travel not coming back, the efficiency of zoom and skype and all the rest are going to be infiltrated in the market, a lot of these people are going to have to be retrained in the marketplace, that is going to take a number of years but its also going to be associated with a big burst of productivity because i think firms will be able to say i can produce this much more without as many people. So maybe that productivity puzzle of the last ten years, why isnt it faster this has been adult, we will not see that now with the layoffs but that is whats going to happen in 2021. Those of the people powell is talking about but i think the academy is coming back strong, that money is going to be spent, we see vegas and we see the prebookings for the cruise lines, on and on and on, yeah there is going to be some outbreaks but theres also going to be vaccines. And they will be therapeutics in my feeling is, this economy is set to go strong. Maria all right, lets talk about investing, you are an advisor to wisdom tree, full disclosure my husband is the ceo of wisdom tree, you say you like etfs to get exposure to a stock market that may very well be going up, how do you want to invest around where we are right now given the evaluation that we know and the length of time is going to take to get back into a normal zone for the economy. How do i allocate capital. I think that stocks will do well, i think we will have inflation in 2021 and 2022, in contrast to the fed, i think will have moderate inflation with all the liquidity and all the debt talking about three or 5 , you dont want to be in longterm bond and you dont want to be longterm treasury. I made the call a couple months ago that that low that we saw in march on the ten year treasury is going to be the 39 year low, we will look back the end of the four decade bull market in bonds. I think the dividend paying stocks are going to be the only way that you will really realistically get income Going Forward and theyre going to do fairly well in the modern inflation environment. Maria we heard from jay powell, at least 2022 were rates where they are, im sticking my neck out saying is probably 2023. It is great to have you this weekend, w stranger, thank you for joining me. Thank you for having me. Maria we will see you soon, the professor, dont go anywhere Peter Navarro is up next, stay with us for the interview coming [shouting] [clapping and shouting] [cymbals clanging] [knocking] room for seven. And much, much more. The firstever glb. Get 0 apr financing up to 36 months on most models, and 90day firstpayment deferral on any model. My agerelated macular degenso today i made a plan with my doctor, which includes preservision. Because he said a multi vitamin alone may not be enough. And its my vision, my morning walk, my sunday drive, my grandsons beautiful face. 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Because when you want to create an entirely new feeling, the difference between excellence and mastery is all the difference in the world. The lexus es. A product of mastery. Experience amazing at your lexus dealer. Maria welcome back the economic comeback from covid19 is on pause as ryans following the death of george floyd erected across the country this past week fatigue Business Owners open up after the shutdown are having to clean up after looters destroyed their stores and stole merchandise. Joining me not to talk about the road ahead, the Economic Impact of the rise as well is the white house trade advisor Peter Navarro and its always a pleasure to see you, thank you for joining us. Great to be with you. Maria i know that you have numbers and a method in terms of looking at the impact of these rioters but i want to first get your take on where we are in the economy and the potential for further stimulus. Where do want to make sure is in a potential fourth package, stimulus package, you been the quick man on manufacturing, is not something you would like to see on the stimulus bill . I think where we have to start is a diagnosis of the problem we are trying to solve in the phase four. What i am seeing is the china virus which has hoisted a pandemic on this world and wreak havoc of our economy has particularly hit a major metropolitan area, if you look at the china virus, it is basically hit the twin pillars of our major cities which are the density, the highrise density in the mass transit, if you dont have those working, then you cannot have a city. So we have that to grapple with and at the same time we have also got what i call the looter math, when you have an arson is burned down a small business, you lear lose 100 employees andn you have looters go in and loot a large business, thats thousands of employees infected, you scale that up over major metropolitan area, we calculate that is close to 2 million jobs impacted. So what we have is a combination of the china virus attacking our major cities and we have the looter mass coming into play, what is the point, we are going to see as we adjust to the china virus world, will see a lot of Service Sector refugees as the economy changes from the major metropolitan areas, for me in this president one of the key of any phase for any economic plan Going Forward has to be manufacturing jobs, the focus on buying american, high american make in the usa, what we need to do as a country is to make more stuff here, what will that do, will simultaneously create more manufacturing jobs which tend to pay much higher wages and also help the Ripple Effect to create a lot of the Service Sector jobs which are going to lose dislocation as we adjust. The phase for when you talk about a 3 trillion by nancy pelosi and you hear from mitch mcconnell, only 1 trillion but the president is very interested in something on the order of at least 2 trillion with the bulk of that focused on bringing home our Manufacturing Base started with pharmaceuticals and medical supplies and equipment. You know if weve learned anything from this crisis, that we need to make our medicines here, we need to make our masks here, ventilators and all of that, were doing a great job on that, we become in 100 days with ventilator king of the world and who wouldve thought that three months ago when Governor Cuomo was running around with his hair on fire saying we dont have enough ventilators. Now were exporting ventilators. The point here, the economic crisis we are facing, we can deal with, we have a president who in three and half years built the most beautiful economy in modern history, we can do it again but its going to be a different strategy than the last time, the first time, the tax cut, deregulation and cheap energy and fair trade deals. We are going to do all of that but we have to do more, we have to focus on this by american, high american, make it here so all around the great country we are going to have americans making stuff with high technology, it is going to be not the old manufacturing economy its going to be the spacex economy. Maria that means biotech and innovation made here but i think you have some support for this in congress, Kevin Mccarthy told me he would like to see something in the next bill about an incentive so Companies Bring their manufacturing here in at a minimum out of china, can you talk us through the incentives that might be possible for companies who might consider taking their supply chain out of china and firing up the manufacturing system here. Sure, we need to create demand signal, supply signal and investment signal. Weve seen japan for example create policy to bring their manufacturing home from china, we need to be doing the same kind of thing. I think globally in terms of the next phase four, we have to have a payroll tax cut. That is critical for creating the appropriate incentives to employers to keep workers working and it is essentially a great implicit pay raise for the workers themselves, that is part that has got to be part of it, my american for pharmaceutical, if we do not have our defense department, or of Veterans Affairs department in our health and Human Services buying american for medicines and medical supply and equipment, who is going to do it, its insane that we do not do that already. Maria i want to take a break and come back and get more into china, china and the communist party have got more aggressive in the last two months in terms of what they are doing to other countries. Im going to talk without them were gonna talk with peter right now is a time for action. Thats why usaa is giving Payment Relief options to eligible members so they can pay for things like groceries before they worry about their insurance or credit card bills. Discover all the ways were helping members today. And its bigger than selling cars. Were here to build for the people who build and shape this country. Who work hard. Who do right by others. Who never give in. Theres always some new challenge trying to take us out. To shake our resolve. And if youre out there fighting through it, we know 260,000 people who have your back. Me too. Me too. And if youre a small business, were with you. Standing by you every step of the way. Bye bye. Maria we are back with white house trade advisor Peter Navarro. I want to talk you about the Chinese Communist party, you made a lot of good points in terms of your recovery in america but china is perhaps using this covid shutdown opportunity to gain more territory as we speak you have forces on the border between china and india facing off against one another, china invaded india, they are overreaching in hong kong as you know breaking a promise that it would be two systems for 50 years and they have militarize the South China Sea. This on top of Everything Else that you brought to everyones attention like property theft among other bad behavior from the communist party, how is america supposed to deal with a partner who keeps breaking promises and tries to use a pandemic to their advantage. What is the plan . That is the central question and if you go back historically, is a wellknown fact speak truth from fact, it is a wellknown fact that china historically has used crises to basically to use its own strategic an territorial agenda per the 1962 cuba mr. Crisis when the United States and the soviet union were locked in an extremely expert central issue and china invaded india, india cannot appeal the eyes of the soviet union and the americans and as a result they had to give up territory in a place which is essentially now a possible gateway for the chinese army to come in and march all the way down and now china has renewed its territorial request in china in india. Weve seen the minis advanced oil and natural gas and fishing rights in the South China Sea in all of these things that you mention, the question is what do we do here as americans when arrival by china is strategically on the move and i think the first and most important thing is to acknowledge that in this crisis, this was an attack on america, china lied, americans died, china lied and we lost over 30 million jobs and we lost trillions of dollars of wealth. I think the question for the American People has to be how are we going to behave Going Forward with respect to china, when we buy the china goods, is there a Price Associated with that. I think with this president you are right has changed the conversation about china and we get thrown the curveball of a pandemic and a shutdown in the behavior of the ccp becomes real clear. You think the United States, does President Trump have the rest of the world on his side. Do you think that we had allies understand what the Chinese Communist party is doing because if you look at europe right now, germany, italy, france, are they still using telecom, do they get it . You use the baseball analogy that china throws a curveball, i prefer to see this as a fastball right at our head, the china virus responded, hit it in one of the things that bother American People the most is the fact as china created the virus and knew about the dangers, they stopped people within china from traveling around the country and they contain the virus there. In the meantime they sent hundreds of thousands of chinese nationals around the world, spreaders seating the virus so the economy of the rest of the world are now suffering in china is seeking to gain at everyones expense. I think that has got to be the thought. I was heartened by news this week that europe had formally accused china of lying about the virus, that is a good start but lets be honest, the china playbook, the communist china playbook, the checkbook diplomacy, you countries in europe like italy, like greece who need chinas money like the city of london which loves to wondelonger china money. Your weaker politicians of the capitals around europe as well as in brussels. That is the struggle in the huawei issue is a microcosm of all of that and you and i both know, you covered this issue beautifully that if huawei is the prevailing 5g in the world, china is going to be stealing intellectual property and personal information and everything in between. By the way the phase four bill could very much contain a whole package to boost 5g here in america throughout can source of allies around the world who do not want to be under the boot of china. Maria we certainly appreciate you joining me. We will be watching the development. It was a pleasure. Dont go anywhere more wall street after this. When you think of a bank, you think of people in a place. But when you have the chase mobile app, your bank can be virtually any place. So, when you get a check. You can deposit it from here. And you can see your transactions and check your balance from here. You can detect suspicious activity on your account from here. And you can pay your friends back from here. So when someone asks you, wheres your bank . You can tell them heres my bank. Or heres my bank. Or, heres my bank. Because if you download and use the chase mobile app, your bank is virtually any place. So visit chase. Com mobile. The first and only full prescription strength nonsteroidal antiinflammatory gel available overthecounter. New voltaren is powerful arthritis pain relief in a gel. Voltaren. The joy of movement. Maria welcome back. Thatll do it for us for this week. Thanks so much for joining me. Be sure to tune in to fox business every friday night for another edition of wall street. I will see you sunday morning this weekend on the fox news channel, sunday morning futures, ric grenell coming up, plus Kevin Mccarthy, minority leader, joining me as well. Thats at 10 a. M. Eastern sunday on fox news, and right here on fox business start smart every weekday, 69 a. M. Eastern for mornings with maria right here on fox business. Set the tone with us every e weekday on fox business. Have a great rest of t weekend, everybody. Thank you for watching, and ill see you again next time. Gerry welcome to the wall street journal at large. Its not an exaggeration to say that america itself has changed perhaps irreversibly in these last two weeks. The death of george floyd at the hands of a white Police Officer has unleashed more than just protest and unrest in this country. Its been seized on by radical Political Forces aided by many in the Democrat Party as an opportunity for nothing less than a political revolution. Now, while mr. Floyds revolts every decent person, the main charge behind much of
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