Marketsal rallied hard this week. After the fed came out with a stimulus plan to back up the government. The dow and nasdaq were up more than 10 for the week while the s p saw its best week since 1974. But are these bailouts enough to get the economy back up and running, and could a rocky earnings season spook investors . Joining me now to discuss this and more from santa fe, Thornburg Investment president and ceo jason brady. Jason, good to see you. Thanks for joining us. Its a real pleasure. Thanks for having me. David the administration is already looking ahead about how to fire up the economy once we emerge from our shelters. How precisely do they do it, who makes it and who does it as we try to fire up this economy again . You know, its a great question, and Vice President pence is obviously leading that effort. Looking at the commentary there, it seems to be driven by health officialses and their determination, obviously, those are the experts. When i think about that and starting the economy back again, i think its a real question of the essential and nonessential, the getting unemployed back to work. Those are the things we need to focus on, and those claims statistics that were seeing every thursday are extremely eyeopening. How do we get that turned around in a safe way, obviously thats part of Vice President pences task force. David well, lets talk about the jobs for the moment because working people in this country are the most important part of the whole equation. Onetenth of the entire work force is now out of work. We have these new numbers this week, the total is now about 16 Million People out of work. Thats a 10 unemployment rate. How quickly do you think people will get back to work, and how much of an unemployment figure are we stuck with even after the economy gets going . Sure. So i think the best guide to this is how to do we feel the economy is going to progress away from the virus, right . So we already had a little bit of weakness in the economy before this hit partly because we a had lots of leverage in corpses, but corporations, but really what you saw was the fed cutting rates in advance of this, not because of the pandemic. So i think where we sit now is getting folks the eyeopening figures back to what might be a normal recession level. Obviously, that 10 is pretty extreme. Its probably bigger than that david yeah. But if we get back to 10 or high single digits, thats probably where we stand. David and how long do we have to live with 10 unemployment . We were down to record low numbers of unemployment. We pretty much had full employment. There were more jobs out there than there were people seeking jobs. Are we going to get back to that level before the years end . I think its going to take a little bit more time than that. So, look, this has been, this reaction and, as you say, the numbers have been extremely eyeopening and uns precedented in their speed unprecedented in their speed. Its pretty unusual for things to move up this quickly. I think it would be as unusual to have numbers move down as quickly. Look, the stimulus that weve seen has been incredible, but its going to take some time to work through. And businesses are incentivized to keep employees on. Thats terrific david yes. But a are a lot of them havet or cant. So its going to take a lot of time for demand to come back into the economy, and that ultimately is going to be what gets us down to those previously low level of unemployment. David the markets were thinking positive, a big rally as a result of not only what the administration is doing, working with the congress and the paycheck protection program, but also as you mentioned, the fed. 2. 3 trillion, thats what rallied the market on thursday. Im just wondering, do you think we now have enough liquidity in the market so that once we do come out of our shelters, there will be enough capital on which companies can base their Forward Movement . I think that is exactly what the fed has been targeting. So chair powell was at pains to say the fed doesnt have the ability to give money, it only has the ability to lend money. And the lending portion of the economy, the credit creation, was what fell off a cliff. Now because since 2008 the pretty, pretty aggressive regulation of the u. S. Banking sector has taken banks away from some of that lending, its moved to markets, the fed has been forced to make sure that markets themselves are liquid so that lending can occur. Weve seen the fed address it various markets over time. David jason brady, great to see you, my e friend. Thank you very much. Dont go anywhere, marias dont go anywhere, marias oneonone with shake there are times when our need to connect really matters. 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Ask your parkinsons specialist your sleep meds. Haveyour allergy meds . In meds. Call the poison help line has your child swallowed household cleaner. A chip of paint. A Wild Mushroom . Call the poison help line have you been bitten by a spider. A snake. An insect . Call the poison help line poisonings can happen at the home. On the job. Or in the great outdoors. Call the poison help line first to speak with medical professionals who can give you free, personal advice, anytime. Save the number save a life david welcome back. Keeping the Food Industry afloat during coronavirus crisis, shake shack is introducing new ways to keep businesses going. This week maria sat down with Ceo Randy Garutti to talk about the chains plans during the pandemic. Watch. Ive told our team, we need to react on reality and lead with hope. Reality is its tough, you know . Every one of our restaurants has had to shift to a strivethrough or pickup only model. We have no dining rooms open, but near lu all of our nearly all of our shake shacks have opened. Its been the hardest day of my career when i needed to tell my team we were considering furloughs. It was painful. And these are the unfortunate, tough decisions weve got to make in the short term so so that we come out stronger and take care of everybody in the meantime. Its been a heroic effort. The amount of meals our teams have been sending to hospitals, have been taking care of each other with and the way that theyve stayed open to feed our communities and, i think most importantly, continue to keep jobs going as long as we possibly can has been amazing. So when we put up a business update, were obviously deeply impacted, but weve drawn down a lot of credit making sure that our Balance Sheet is strong so that when we come out of this, we can continue to grow again. Shake shack grew 30 last year. Its crazy to have that grow the other direction, but it is where were at, and were trying to make the right decisions right now so we can come out Even Stronger on the other side. Maria i know you drew down on debt, but before we go into the financials and sort of the fact that you didnt have debt, by the way, before this, tell us some of the things that you are introducing in terms of new ways to keep the business going and thriving. Most shacks do not allow guests inside. Youve got Creative Things that youve come up with, converting to curbside to go ordering, youve modified your driveup. Tell me what youre doing to keep selling shake shack. Yeah. Were doing everything we can in each restaurant. First, were taking care of our team, making sure theyre safe and making sure our guests are safe. Weve got great standards in play in and out every day to make sure people are safe. And then weve got this mostly were doubling down on our digital infrastructure. Opportunities to preorder on the shack app is so you can roll up, weve got the bag ready, you can go home. Its safe, contactless, really proud of that. Weve also doubled down on our delivery partners. So weve added postmates, door dash, caviar in addition to our preexisting relationship with grubhub so theres a really good likelihood you can get delivery. We with even teamed up with a Company Called gold belly where you can go on and order your own shack pack that well send it to you at home, and you can cook your shack burgers with our ingredient9 whenever you want. I did this other day with my family, and it was like comfort. It was like coming home to have some state of normalcy, to have shake shack arrive to you. So were doing all we can to make sure we can keep people employed and keep the company stronger. Maria and i love the cook at home boxes. Thats another good one. I was looking at your press release, and this is all these pictures of these burgers, and im thinking, wow, i really want a shake shack burger. [laughter] it looked so good. You drew down 50 million of 100 million available under your august 19 credit agreement. This was a prudent move. Tell me how thats going, what that money is being used for. And then i want to get your take the on the government relief plan. Were talking with treasury secretary mnuchin this weekend, and he goes true few the ppp plan through the ppp plan, and i know youre going to participate in that. We are. My job as our ceo is to make sure we have adequate liquidity for the very long term no matter how long this lasts. Shake shacks fortunate. Never having had debt, its not been an issue for us. We took down that additional 50 million to insure the very longterm path, and were going to continue to think aboutly cudty options that we have as we go forward. Look, maria, you can bet that were going to enter were going to exit this in a foreverchanged retail landscape. A lot of businesses may not come back, and if those that can come back will be, i think, coveted positions to grow again. We want to make sure we have the capital in place so that we can do that. Were even, you know, were continuing to employ a recruiting team right now so that we can have our recruiters out there meeting the best people so that when were ready to rev up again, weve got an Incredible Group of hospitality people that can come back to us. When it comes to the stimulus opportunities, well be able to to take part in that. Weve applieded for a loan for ourselves, and the goal for us remains keep as many people employed as we can and use whatever benefit we can to make sure that this business remains strong during this time and exits this with cash flow to grow again. David our thanks to randy garutti. Marias interview with treasury secretary mnuchin and blackstones stephen at Fisher Investments, we do things differently and other Money Managers dont understand why. Because our way works great for us but not for your clients. Thats why were a fiduciary, obligated to put clients first. So, what do you provide . Cookie cutter portfolios . Nope. We tailor portfolios to our clients needs. But you do sell investments that earn you high commissions, right . We dont have those. So, whats in it for you . Our fees are structured so we do better when you do better. At Fisher Investments were clearly different. Sprinting past every leak in our softest, smoothest fabric. Shes confident, protected, her strength respected. Depend. The only thing stronger than us, is you. These expect and way more. D, internthats xfinity xfi. U get powerful wifi coverage that leaves no room behind with xfi pods. And now xfi advanced security is free with the xfi gateway, giving you an added layer of network protection, so every device thats connected is protected. Thats a 72 a year value. No one else offers this. Faster speed, coverage, and free advanced security at an unbeatable value with xfinity xfi. Can your internet do that . David welcome back. Getting money to americans. While the fed announces a multitrillion dollar lending plan to help main street, President Trump is working with congress on another round of Financial Relief as the u. S. Grams with keeping the economy grapples with keeping the economy alive. In the meantime, some americans waiting for stimulus checks can expect to receive them as soon as this week via direct deposit. And while a Record Number of loans have been made to a half million Small Businesses sent out through the paycheck protection program, banks are already overwhelmed by the continuing surge of loan applications. This week maria spoke to treasury secretary Steve Mnuchin about the challenges surrounding the relief rollout. Maria, we clarified, again, the way this Program Works is you get eight week of pay, plus you get an extra 25 for overhead. And we clarified that the money needs to be used to pay the workers. Thats what all this is about. We did clarify that you need to use at least 75 of the money to pay the workers because the whole point of this program is to keep 50 of america back at work so that Small Business can reopen quickly. Maria right. No, and i get that. But that therein is where the issue is, because theyre being forced to keep, you know, give the money to employees while theyre not getting any revenue in, right . Because were in a lockdown mode. Heres what analyst, treasury is forcing funds to be used to retain payroll, that eliminates the ability for Small Business to bank the funding so that they can pay the represent, keep the lights on pay the rent. That increases the risk that a longer crisis will result in these businesses closing. And then yesterday i had on a major restaurant guy whos, obviously, had to close all his restaurants, and he says this the ppp program forgives loans mostly based on how much a restaurant spends on payroll. But if a restaurant receives a loan now while were closed, its doing a fraction of its normal volume because of social distancing, out simply will not be able to take advantage of most of the loan forgiveness benefits. So theyre not going to make it anyway because theyre going to give employees the money, but theyre not taking any revenue in. At some point, somethings got to give, right . Can you extend the time in terms of how long that company has to give the money to employees since theyre not operating right now . Were in lockdown, and its only eight weeks. Well, maria, let me explain the program, because i think perhaps these people dont understand the point of the program. And let me just put this in perspective. Congress created a new program from scratch about a week ago. So working with the, is ba, treasury and the sba created an entire new program in less than one week. And these are really grants. So theyre loans that are forgiven. You can think of these as grants. The purpose of this is the president wanted to keep people hired. This keeps people off of unemployment. This makes sure that companies have, Small Businesses have their payroll there. The whole purpose of this program is we are giving Small Business money for free. Maria do you think that this shutdown is going to go longer than eight weeks . Maria, i hope not. I hope we can get back to the point i think everything i hear from the medical professionals in many places were close to the worst point and beginning to peak, and i think then things are going to get better. And i know the president is very much looking at how we can reopen parts of the economy. There are parts of the country like new york where, obviously, this is very, very concerning. Theres other parts of the country where its not, and i know hes meeting with the task force and the medical professionals and getting posted on this every day. Maria you said with me a couple of weeks ago that in the Fourth Quarter well see a gigantic rebound. How quickly do you expect a snapback once we do see the economy open up again, secretary . Maria, i think certain parts of the economy youre going to see come back immediately, certain things are going to take longer. But i have every expectation that we will kill this virus soon, and when we do that, youre going to see a very big bounceback. As i said, the economy has slowed down, weve closed down this economy, and when we reopen it, i expect that youre going to see a very strong are rebound later this year. David david our thanks to secretary mnuchin. Despite some glitches in the stimulus plans rollout this week, blackstone ceo Stephen Schwartzman gives the federal government some high marks for their handling of the crisis is. Heres his oneonone with maria. I think the governments done quite well. It, you know, were missing a large part of revenue, gdp, for probably at least a quarter with. Thats over 5 trillion will probably be gone from the economy. And without Government Support of the massive type that weve had, we would have a grave situation. A recession would be the optimistic description of it. Were in unprecedented times with a voluntary suspension of our, most of our economy. Now, thats not going to happen in terms of the downside scenario because the government has stood up a massive stimulus. It started at 2 trillion. Money will be going to people on unemployment, itll be going to businesses with incentives to keep employees, and it could end up being infinitely bigger than that 2 trillion through multiplying and through the leverage that the Federal Reserve can bring. In terms of individual lending programs, im not even sure exactly how thats going to work. What i would say this Small Business program, it would be reasonable to expect there to be difficulty rolling a program out for 350 billion where no such program existed and doing it to tens of millions of Small Businesses. My own personal expectation is it would take a week or two to normalize that program maria yeah. But apparently somebody told me there was like 38 billion of those type of loans to support employees really that went out the first day. So im quite optimistic about the success of that program. Maria i want to talk about what youve been doing because i know, steve, you have had a lifetime of donating to new york and across the country s and youve done it again. Blackstone group donating 15 million to new york state, 10 million of which will go to the First Responders fund, the rest heading to new York City Health care workers. Thank you for doing that. Tell us about it and what you hope to achieve with this money. Well, its clear that weve got an enormous crisis going on in new york. The governor is doing a terrific job trying to get additional equipment, but weve got First Responders who are at risk, people working unbelievable hours. They need support. Our whole system needs support, and i think its important for members of the Business Community not just me as an individual, but our firm to step up and help. David our thanks to Stephen Schwartzman. Dont go anywhere, more wall street right after this. I am totally blind. And non24 can throw my days and nights out of sync, keeping me from the things i love to do. Talk to your doctor, and call 8442142424. And a few practical waysith you your family can stay healthy. First, hand washing is essential. Children should wash their hands after coming in from outside, before eating, after coughing, sneezing or blowing their little noses. Second, limit all crowds and explain that no one is shaking hands or hugging because that is how germs can spread. What changes need to be made now, i encourage parents to let children know this will not last forever. I urge you to stay connected to family and loved ones, stay safe and remember while many of us are apart, we are all in this together. Please be sure to follow cdc guidelines which can be found at coronavirus. Gov along with other information and resources. David welcome back. Thats all for this week. Marias back next week. Make sure to tune in every friday night at 9 p. M. Eastern, for another episode of wall street. And sunday morning futures at 10 a. M. Eastern on if fbn. Weekdays for mornings with maria right here on fox business. Thatll do it for us. Thanks for watching, everybody. Have a wonderful easter and passover weekend. Well see you next time. Us. Jackie welcome to barrons round table where we prepare you for the week ahead. Im jack otter the three most important things investors should be thinking about right now. Stocks rallied sharply on indications that measures to slow the spread of coronavirus may be working in some states, but the impact on earnings is still unknown. The Entertainment Industry has been hard hit, we spoke to disney chairman bob iger about changes coming to the companys iconic theme parks and how the world has changed for Utility Companies and what that manes for investors means for investors. Be
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