What companies to watch . The roundtable looks a little different this week in order to be safe. We are staying away from each other but we are all here. Joining me from afar ben levisohn, carleton english, and jack hough. We are running out of negative superlatives to describe was going on the market right now. Set aside the human toll which is hard to fathom, walking through manhattan and seeing all the store closed. Markets alone, s p 500 closed down 17 on the week even worse than last weeks horrible performance. What you look at question work. We are just try to find a bottom here. Look like we mightve had when earlier this week but did not hold. Gerry 2350 was whatever but is watching. Smack that was not too far below that but we are now seeing what is the next level down . Wheres the marketing to try to find support . There are some things out there that are slightly optimistic. For one, its been hitting highs in most every day vicks is a measure of volatility in the market. Its called the markets fear gauge. It actually fell today, even though the market fell to. And then coming down is a good thing especially when youre having the market being sold off. It does mean that perhaps the fear has peaked. We are also seeing, so the dislocation of the bond market are Getting Better as well. We are seeing 30 year bonds sell off and 30 or Treasury Bonds and these are supposed to hold up really well when the market sells off. But they dropped earlier this week also. She did not get any protection there so at least by the end of the week, the yields there we are following the prices are rising and they were not providing that perfection for stock portfolios. Jack let me ask you what you looking at next week . What gauges will inform you on whats on the way . There really two things the market cares about right now. Because so much we just cant predict any of it. One is seeing the number of coronavirus cases slow, the other is seeing the u. S. Government actually do something much bigger than has been done so far. The senate is discussing a 1 trillion stimulus bill, they are saying theyre going to go through the weekend and try to get this passed. It could be a booster put a flooring here for little while. And then from wall street the predictions just keep on getting worse and worse. Goldman setting a new low for gdp possibly. There saying gdp could fall 24 during the second quarter. Its just an unfathomable number. On the groove ever seen it in any of our lifetimes. Jack it takes us back to the Great Depression levels. Check how youre looking at some longterm changes no matter what happens. One thing that goldman said as they see a bottom here of 2000 for the s p 500 by midyear. And then by the end of the year, we have this rip roaring bounce back to 3200. It is such a specific forecast, its hard for me to it get my head around. They say were going to go another 12 times and then 18 times earnings, may be. I saw something from bank of america that i found more interesting and what they are saying is p e ratios for the stock market dont really matter right now. As ben was saying earlier, all that matters in a pandemic is the new cases. In what investors might want to look at, look at italy which might be the best leading indicator for the u. S. Another situation there is a grim, but they, like the u. S. Had a little bit of delay in the social distancing and quarantining. If we see some kind of hopeful turn and italy i think it will be as good sign for investors here. Bret will recap what the government was taking. The fed was in the way why did they do this past week . So the Federal Reserves been filling out all the stops. We have Interest Rates at zero. We have quantity thats easing happening but we also the fed during other measures such as Encouraging Bank to use the discount window that allows shortterm financings that the banks can provide liquidity to their customers. We also have the fed watching commercial paper lines. Again, this is actually backstopping to make sure businesses theyre going to have problems meeting payroll and things like that can get the shortterm financing that they need. And then also, such as our Federal Reserve we have coordination against the global central bank. Most recently what they did is they tried to ease access to the dollar. The daughter has a 10 been on a chair and for companies that dont have access could exacerbate the issue were incurred. Jack theyre not giving away money, theyre just injecting money in the to the system at a time when various institutions are afraid to lend to each other just to keep the system going. But no one is handing over taxpayer money to make payroll. That said, there is some talk of maybe doing that. So is been was saying, right now congress is discussing possible 1 trilliondollar package. It may actually put up to 1000 or more in individuals hands, other measures are being discussed about widening Unemployment Benefits to a wider class of workers. Give a lot of contractors who have been weakened by this were typically they cant access unemployment insurance. Can they get it now that their jobs or been cut . Jack can talk more about this with an economist coming up. Jack, just give me the three important points as we fight this actual virus. These economic problems are not going to be solved until make progress against coronavirus. So for those that are confused and you hear the president talking about different treatments, i had a conversation in their talk about progress for covid19, he said basically its a three prong approach for the first thing you do to you so you have available. They have an arthritis drug, they are trying it now for covid19. Because if you can bring down inflammation of joints with an arthritis drug you can also bring down inflammation in the lung, its very important. We have a clip explain why thats important. Its a big problem we are all worried about, the whole purpose of social distancing, staying home, grinding the economy to a halt is that if we all get sick at once, people who could be saved by modern healthcare, we wont have enough intensive care beds and take care of them. So best case, drug like this could really slow down the number of people who needed really intensive respiratory therapy. Jack jack, the number two after they make us try to create antibiotics to fight the disease and then number three, as a vaccine, how long could it be intimate get the vaccine . So everybody says 12 to 18 months for vaccine. Ive heard people say maybe sooner. The point is here you could perhaps have treatments that can save lives before the vaccine is available. Ill tell you will have the whole conversation on a podcast relaunching is called barons a streetwise you can look for the First Episode in the days ahead. Gerry a former imf chief economists and how the u. S. Can help avert a financial crisis, that is next. Jack coronavirus is swept across the globe, National Economy reeling and its awake. What should central bank and the fed do right now to avert a Global Financial crisis joining me now former imf chief economist is also the author of the third pillar. Raghuram rajan. Thank you so much for joining us, they ought to realize that i think in fact it was 2005 you got booed and his for warning people in this country about an economic crisis on the way. You proved fresh end. So lets hear from you now, first of all, as a former central banker when Something Like this happens, one of the first thoughts that go through your mind . One of the things you rush to solve immediately . What you can do as a central bank is let the markets at this point. The markets are backing up some are panicking. What you need is to give them the assurance that at least is part of the clarity goes there will be plenty of it, you as the central bank will make sure commercial paper doesnt seize up. Making sure money markets dont seize up. Those are very important these times. Jack does the fed have any bullets left . It has cut Interest Rates down to rock bond and it cant really do more. Though its analysis on measures there, what it can really do is make sure the market functions. And thats precisely what its doing by bringing back all of the facilities that it had during the Global Financial crisis like the lending. [inaudible] that make sure banks to refinance some of their assets can do that without question from the fed. Basically providing liquidity to the system and helping banks will honor it with people who needed and the cooperations are drawing it down. So i know its early but how do you think its working . You think u. S. Banks can survive this . U. S. Bank started off with a fair amount of capital and that was one of the successes because of financial crisis regulation. I think as far as we know and a lot depends on bringing this virus pandemic under control within a span of a couple of months rather than a couple of quarters. If we can do that, then the damage is limited, and banks certainly have the capital to absolve that without asking for more. All bets are off if this lasts for a long time and a lot of corporations are damaged because of it. Jack one question, the last financial crisis is partisan of the government jumped into save the banks and people felt the government was privatizing gains and socializing losses. Is there danger for that this time and if so should we do things a bit differently . I think they are very aware of what happened last time in the Public Perception that took hold after that. So its very important to dealing with stressed families, providing them funding so they can last of the next couple of months, especially those who are on the jag economy lost their jobs. I think that is the starting point, then go on to small and mediumsized firms who help those who can survive over this. With adequate funding. And only then should you start thinking about large corporations and when you do think about them it is very important that the equity holders and bondholders have an adequate pricing for the government comes in with its own money. Jack that makes a lot of sense. You express the importance of Global Solution to this problem. Naturally most of us are focused on here at home. Why is it important to solve domestic crisis to act in concert with everyone else . This crisis will not go away until it is solved everywhere or we find a cure. That is always a possibility. What you see in china, and singapore and south korea today, as they have arrested domestic expansion of cases that people coming in from abroad are bringing these new cases back. So until the epidemic is wiped out everywhere, nobody can relax. And so for that reason, we need to think about some of the other countries in the world which are much less prepared as we are today. Now undoubtedly, countries will first look to solving the problem within their countries. But we should also start the process of telling people in africa, south asia, i think about how they will tackle the crisis when it hits them, because in some of those countries social distancing is much harder when you live on top of one another. Jack thank you for being with this doctor Raghuram Rajan coming up, which coronavirus stimulus measures will help stimulus measures will help stimulate the economy. As a doctor, i agree with cdc guidance. I recommend topical pain relievers first. Like salonpas patch large. Its powerful, fdaapproved to relieve moderate pain, yet nonaddictive and gentle on the body. Salonpas. Its good medicine. Hisamitsu. A former army medic, made of the we maflexibility to handle members like kate. Whatever monday has in store and tackle four things at once. So when her car got hit, she didnt worry. She simply filed a claim on her usaa app and said. I got this. Usaa insurance is made the way kate needs it easy. She can even pick her payment plan so its easy on her budget and her life. Usaa. What youre made of, were made for. Usaa its a masterstroke of heartache and redemption. You didnt read it, did you . I didnt but i will. The lexus nx. Modern utility for modern obstacles. Experience amazing at your lexus dealer. Can we go get some ice cream . Alright, we gotta stop here first. From smarter atms, to after hours video tellers comcast business is connecting thousands of banks to technology that turns everyday transactions into extraordinary experiences. Hi there. How are you . Do you have any lollipops in there . laughing no, sorry. Were helping all kinds of businesses go beyond customer expectations. How can we help you . Submit nine as officials in the house, congress, Business Leaders talk about the best moves to stabilize the economy. Justin wolfers joins us to talk about all of this. I want to start with an idea thats very much on the table that sending checks of the 1200 to americans making 75000 or less. Is that a smart way to inject a little stimulus into the economy . I think is a terrific idea but i want to change the reason for doing it. Usually will be going to recession what stimulus will be able to get out to the shop to spend money. This time they are not at shops we dont want them there with closes stores. The reason for doing this is a need to make sure that everyone, including those have had their hours cut can put food on the table. So this is less about stimulus and more about social insurance making sure people can get to the week. Jack gotcha its tougher to spend with the stores are closed. I want to ask ben about an idea that we have been chewing over in the barons newsroom theres a proposal to change the insurance rules so rather than being a force thats not cover both come Insurance Companies will be asked to cover losses from this. And then the government would backstop the Insurance Company so they would not be out the money. Whats interesting to me as they are used to covering things is a process in place for this. So they are used to covering these they know how to look at the losses to judge with the real not to root out fraud. And in make plastic and have passed the claim. Thereafter backstop them because i dont think any of them would be prepared to lay claim to this is just one interesting idea thats floating around. Gerry justin, another ideas bridge loans at the government would provide to businesses so they could make payroll. And while it goes to the business, and obviously helps the workers well. So absolutely its a good idea. Heres one way of thinking about parade this a lot of businesses like take my local burrito shop which had great business to ask agon once we got this virus thinking there really Good Business would be done in the question is how we get there from here to there. Metaphorically what they need is a time machine. Because as time ticks, they have to keep paying rent, payroll, and some of them are going to go belly up. So they need some sort of cash infusion. The smart thing is is its not we have to give company billions of dollars, have to give them access to billions of dollars they can borrow it and then pay it back. This is one of the important steps we can take to make sure the economy will spring back to life in the post virus world. Bret if it doesnt, that burrito shop was out of business in a million others do too. The damage can really be longstanding even after the virus is cured, right . Thats the difference hi mike year have a good sleeping or fresh made to go again. In depression things can spiral, and who knows where the end is after that. We really want to make sure that, just like the economy shut down when the officials told us to, we want to make sure everyone is in the position to go back out on the Playing Field when the tells it safe. One more question is economist you have studied economic history. So tell us, what you have learn from others the u. S. Or other nations in the past, what mistakes have been made that we should make sure not to make this time around. So just about every economic crisis you can think of. The first round of government response was insufficient. So do as much as you think you can do, and when youre doing as much as a think you deserve youre probably halfway there. So some the price tags and some these packages look big, the alternative of economic meltdown is much worse. To go big, think hard, then go again. So professor wolfers thanks mr. Insights i hope we go big and it works. Of next, roundtable members give their investment ideas for the coming week. For the coming week. Stay right there. You work hard for your money. Stretched days for it. Juggled life for it. Took charge for it. So care for it. Look after it. Invest with the expertise of j. P. Morgan, either with an advisor or online, through chase. After all, its yours. Chase. Make more of whats yours. Jack jack, you tackle an interesting issue in your streetwise column this week. The idea that somehow a pandemic is a gift to pharmaceutical companies that make you make all kinds of money off of that purpose is not the case, right . Pandemic medicine is a terrible business model. I think investors might be confused about this when you look at regeneron stock, its up a lot this year. Plenty of good reasons to buy that stock, they have the advanced technology for creating human antibodies in mice, they can do at highspeed. Thats one of the things theyre doing to try to find the treatment for this. When it comes to pandemic, you try to create a medicine quickly that you use. Maybe for one use case or a followon case. While its just not a big economic footprint, we have an entire Government Agency devoted to try to make this somewhat economic for drug companies. Lets get that image out of her mind. These Companies Make plenty of money with chronic disease, asthma, heart, not pandemic medicine. To quick actual ideas. People are what arlo nervous what are they can do the portfolios customer so a lot of people are running where the market bottom is going to be they may want to nibble to get impaired what were saying is using limit orders find companies that you think are great for the longterm, set a price you feel comfortable buying, and then forget about it. These arent markets you really want to play around in very much. Jack ben you have an interesting idea to. Municipal bonds the community but ets is up to about 10 this year. Thats a lot. Its because of liquidity issues everything is getting tossed out right now. Down that much, they are looking interesting. Its not that theyre not going to have issues with municipality they will at some point, some of them well but its a lot to fall very quickly. I miss you guys is lonely here this box will skip back to the table. I agree, thanks for saying that jack, hope to be the table with you soon. Great ideas from all of you, viewers to read more check out this weeks edition at barrons. Com. Debited follow us on twitter barrons online, stay safe, wash your hands, thats all for us, well see you next week on the reagan. For fox nation, and fox news, thanks for watching. Maria hello and welcome to the program that analyzes the week that wasnt helps position you for the week ahead. What a week it was. [laughter] thanks for joining us everyone i am maria and coming up in a few moments right here treasury secretary Steve Mnuchin will join me details about the white houses response to the corona virus crisis and its impact on the economy. The Coronavirus Crisis continues three cavett, businesses have been shutting down, jobless claims spiking, markets taking other pounding as the Dow Jones Industrial just this past week dropped below the 20000
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