Market. The u. S. Economy added 145,000 new jobs a month of december. Thats lower than the expected 164,000 that economists were looking for. The n employment rate looks at a 50 year low of 3. 5 . Joining me right now to break that down and tells what the head is jason morgan chief economist anthony chang. Maria we are expecting a slow down a slower pace is what were looking for. But this is worse than even the economists were thinking. But its even lower than the confesses consensus but every time you have thanksgiving coming in late in the calendar, seasonal practice subtracts about a hundred thousand or so from the prior month reading. And he saw the at 256 with the room vision subtraction about a hundred thousand the numbers pretty close. But that doesnt happen to all the components. Retail for example thanks giving comes late, juergen hire more workers. The last time things giving came in late you had an acceleration in retail and about 50000. This time again the same thing. Be seven huge jobs in retail. You also had strength in construction, that was also a good number. Other job creation was in healthcare. But manufacturing down. Manufacturing was down but again you see that in the national pmis. There is no secret that the manufacturing today is essentially in contraction. The good news is, if you look at this months numbers, manufacturing made up only 8. 4 of total payroll. So its a small number, but yes it is in a slowdown mode. The construction number fairly strong. We had good weather. So more hiring in the construction relative to the seasonal practice. Maria was stressing me recently is income inequality is the weight narrowing. Look at the wage estimate was up one tenth of a then it was up 2. 9 yearoveryear. Generally speaking in the last year, you are seeing the bottom learners, their wages going up even more than the top earners. Thats why income inequality is actually narrowing. Thats absolutely true in thats when you see a real tightness of the labor market. The overall labor market is tight, but i still think there is more flexibility. And you see that in the labor force increasing by 200, more than 200,000 this month. In fact the participant rate is unchanged. If you look at the legal Participation Rate relative to her was when we had the beginning of the last recession at 66. 4 or even when it ended at 66. 1, we are very low levels. If you push the deal to the bottom engine of that range we can draw in another 700 Million People and we will be making more progress. All this people not in the labor force they are now making money. Maria so it doesnt bother you in fact that you see an economy that is slowing down . No there is no question we went from 2. 9 two years ago to 2. 3 and i estimate for 219 and i think this year we might get 1. 9 or 2 . But i just finished some research that finds when you have these long running economic expansion and i we broke it down to the slow and the ones that didnt last long and the ones that lasted above average. Thats exactly what you see. The economy slows down. It is not a problem. It is just a natural turn as you mature, you just dont go as fast. Still another healthy year. Maria that thats a lot of positives this next week the upcoming week we are probably going to see the china phase i deal signed. Weve got the signing ceremony happening between that china and the u. S. On the 15th. Youve got usmc a, very close. Its close to passage in the senate. Its probably going to pass next week as well. What does that mean in terms of contributions to the economy and markets as well . You argued in this trade uncertainty outoftheway army . This is very positive because we know more trading activity takes place with the usmc a that it does with china. Right now we need some positive catalysts for the market. Because we have pricetoearnings ratio looking at 2020 earnings that are approaching 18 and a half. We know the averages about 15. So we know that last year, almost 96 of the increase in stock prices were because of multiples. So we need a positive catalysts. Maria lets look at earnings. Lets not forget we are looking fourth korth earnings were to look at the banks further Fourth Quarter. And then we are off to the races in terms of corporate s p 500 reporting their earnings. What kind of earnings. Are you expecting for the Fourth Quarter . Or is that an issue is were looking ahead to 2020 . I think the Fourth Quarters and throw a quarter i think the market is moving beyond that. The question is what happens in 2020. If we get these positive catalysts coming through, then you are going to see earnings picking up a little bit more. How much more . I think we will see earnings in 2020 somewhere in the neighborhood of five to 7 . Which would be really good relative to what people are seen in 2019. Maria what your take you in a waste box here . I want to buy stocks here because earnings are going to be a catalyst. Year over year earnings will be easier now and 2020. And i think these positive catalysts are here. Maria thanks so much looking forrrrr you dont use this old thing, do you . No or how bout this dinosaur right here . Nope then why are you still using a laser printer . Its got expensive toner cartridges. But this. Is the Epson Ecotank color printer. No more expensive cartridges big ink tanks. Lots of ink. If you dont think this printers right for you, just pick up your phone. chuckling . And give me a call. The Epson Ecotank. Just fill and chill. Available at. My agerelated macular degenso today i made a plan with my doctor, which includes preservision. Because he said a multi vitamin alone may not be enough. And its my vision, my morning walk, my sunday drive, my grandsons beautiful face. Only preservision areds2 contains the exact nutrient formula recommended by the National Eye Institute to help reduce the risk of moderate to advanced amd progression. Its how i see my life. Because its my vision. Preservision. Or more on car insurance. S could save you fifteen percent Everybody Knows that. Well, did you know pinocchio was a bad motivational speaker . I look around this room and i see nothing but untapped potential. You have potential. You haveoh boy. Geico. Fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. Patients that i see about dry mouth. They feel that they have to drink a lot of water. Medications seem to be the number one cause for dry mouth. I like to recommend biotene. It replenishes the moisture in your mouth. Biotene definitely works. [heartbeat] apps except work. Rywhere. Why is that . Is it because people love filling out forms . Maybe they like checking with their supervisor to see how much Vacation Time they have. Or sending corporate their expense reports. Ill let you in on a little secret. They dont. By empowering employees to manage their own tasks, paycom frees you to focus on the business of business. To learn more, visit paycom. Com maria welcome back so far the new year has been a record setter on wall street. The major indices hit uncharted territories. So far this year in 2020 on top of record performance in 2019 as well. So what should we expect in the year ahead . Is there anything we should avoid in investing right now . Bank of america private chris heisey is here this weekend with the 2020 outlook. Chriss great seo. What an incredible week again. At whats going on . Good news the incredible week the first five days is something that a lot of people have watched over history. And when you get a good five days, generally you get a good year. I would say this. Heading into a new year, there is liquidity out there. He gets put to work. If you are an Institution Review reset before the end of the year what you are going to do for the following year. It tends to be to raise equities to rebalance portfolios, there is a little bit of that but most importantly you have deescalation obviously on the trade front. You have an easy fed who is willing to put that in more palatable communication. Outwardly over 18 months. Youve got the situation of the middle east which is very concerning that has come down for now. Markets can appear straight through that. And most important in the surprise for next year isnt necessarily growth disappointing its just the opposite. Its growth showing it can be off the grounds and get back to trend. Seven you said to me you thought we were in a melt up for what is that mean . The melt up would be the normal pullback. Year somewhere two to 35 pullback. They get 1 pullback. A melt up would be on top of the big gains from last year another ten to 15 . How does that help them . That helps with a little bit of multiple expansion and last years rally had most of it because of that. There is very little earnings growth. Next to you get earnings growth, seven or 8 , a multiple expansion still easy fed, the big thing to worry about is something youre used to wearing about his elections. Maria thats true and if the markets think that policies are going to change in terms of tax policies, i suspect that markets will go down. With most changes in policy regardless of who is in the white house, or what makeup of congress there is or even at the state level, any change is something people move back from. And businesses may pull a little cap ex back here and there appeared to they are gonna watch it closely. Taxation and regulation are things people can be watching closely to see how that may or may not change. And last but not least we talk about the Business Cycle. We have written a lot about this. This Business Cycle dynamic we are seeing unfolding for the last few years, i would say since 2012. It is a very, very different Business Cycle that multiple trend on. Maria because most people say we are in the 11th year of this economic expansion. At some point this is late stage it is the late stage of the cycle. You disagree . Absolutely, they point to the duration. We havent had an economic recession and they immediately discount the little mini recessions. We have had little mini recessions not necessarily negative Economic Growth but we have had earnings recessions thing flatlined profits, and what we are seeing is a little bit of help from global trade get us up off the ground. But the fourth mini wave right now is all about each time we fell backwards. This particular time around in the Business Cycle it was about to be a big policy era. It was in a policy error but it was about to be. And is driven by the fed and then it was kittle started again because the fed relax. We thought in 2012 with to 13 we saw in 1516, an hour into that fourth mini its white lace cycle but its early. Maria said going into the rest of the year what i want to be position what should i be holding . What should i buy which i sell . The way we see our clients positions right now, what they have been doing recently to your other point, is they have been adding. Theyve actually been adding to equity. At the very programmatically thinking about this rationally, and they saw that much of the gains last year came from a big Movement Towards the end of the year. So now you are going into 2020 and if you are under allocated thats where you start having her and no reviews and use the money put to work. So what you want to do right now . You want to look for areas of weakness. So coming out of Fourth Quarter if guidance is generally guarded likely suspects, the markets should exhale paired y with a exhale . Because there is no news coming out. The only news coming out would be something that concerns the market. Thats when you need to be ready if you have high caching into be ready on down days in february and march. We expect firstquarter to come back and push the market back up again, and over the summer months thats where election concerns will come in with a debate start. Thats when that second level of weakness should be. But we would be rebalancing portfolios and whats most important is the longterm. Our work suggests with the millennials and the jens e, that collective people pool which are getting older, no full well that retirement is not may not be there for them so potentially a big equity culture building now. Like us on the 1990s. Maria thats exactly right Forbes Magazine did a piece on a transfer of wealth from baby boomers to their millennial kids in other generations kids. 68trillion is going to be transferred, that money has to go to work request before you go as their sector you like more than others . I think a cross between half of tech, the areas of software that are going to be responsible for the eventual buildout of 5g. And then if you think about the Large Consumer Branded Companies which includes the big financials. And then outside of that i think the pickup, the greatest pickup is in the industrial sector. Maria thank you its chris its great to have you. Dont go anywhere my ononononon do you recall, not long ago we would walk on the sidewalk all around the wind blows we would only hold on to let go blow a kiss into the sun we need someone to lean on blow a kiss into the sun we needed somebody to lean on all we need is someone to lean on thats it. Im calling kohler about their walkin bath. Nah. Not gonna happen. My name is ken. How may i help you . Hi, im calling about kohlers walkin bath. Excellent happy to help. Huh . Hold one moment please. [ finger snaps ] hmm. The kohler walkin bath features an extrawide opening and a low stepin at three inches, which is 25 to 60 lower than some leading competitors. The bath fills and drains quickly, while the heated seat soothes your back, neck and shoulders. Kohler is an expert in bathing, so you can count on a deep soaking experience. Are you seeing this . The kohler walkin bath comes with fully adjustable hydrotherapy jets and our exclusive bubblemassage. Everything is installed in as little as a day by a kohlercertified installer. And its made by kohler americas leading plumbing brand. We need this bath. Yes. Yes you do. A kohler walkin bath provides independence with peace of mind. Maria a welcome back down 29000 was not the only draw on wall street this week as the to listen to former nissan ceo carlos cohen believed to be under house arrest in japan for alleged corporate crimes and suddenly appeared in lebanon. In an exclusive interview i was able to speak with carl in his wife the first time they have spoken on the entire ordeal published publicly. Not knowing exactly what was going on. And then i learned from the prosecutor that the reason for which i was arrested was because i supposedly. [inaudible] underreported compensation and. [inaudible] was ever paid. And this is why i was put in jail. What is interesting is that today i Prime Minister of japan, nissan has declared that this issue is within the Prime Minister of japan is saying months after this ordeal has started. So i was put in jail for reasons i did not understand. I did not understand at that moment. And then they kept me for 40 days, interrogating me without the presence of any lawyer. And then when they finished interrogations, they had another charge. [inaudible] and the story continues like this for 130 days. I was 130 days in prison. Interrogated by the persecutor, and having access to my lawyers only after the interrogation. Then i was bailed out and under the bailouts i was under very strict conditions. I could not completely understand. I could not go to my wife she could not visit me. They said that this is due to the fact that she is going to get evidence. Even though they allowed my children, my sister, others to visit me. But they focused on carol because of this relationship we had together. So all of these wind up at the moments i absolutely lost any hope to have a fair trial in japan. And i did not have a date for the initiation of this trial. So i decided to leave japan because if i wanted to really look for justice i had to look for justice in another country because japan it was forbidden. Maria carless it is such an amazing story in the world is watching. They are talking about how you engineered from the state of japan. I know you dont want to go into it and dont want to put anybody at risk to help you get out. But can you tell us that all that you are hidden in a musical box . [laughter] i was not in box. I have been observing all of the stories about me leaving japan. It is funny because obviously i know what happens. Some people are not very far from the truth, but nobody got it right at the moment. And the reason for which i dont talk about is i dont want to put anyone in any danger particularly the people helping me. They showed a lot of courage. But what is extremely important, maria, as you have people in japan saying this never should have been dealt with outside the room of nissan. At the same time you have the prosecutors in japan saying we want to try, and they wanted to say also there was no, you know illusion between them and nissan. [inaudible] that problem showing the collusion but they said there was no leaking to the press. I witnessed all of this. So we had kind of a interesting situation. Maria carol you are with me in the studio talking to me about carlos when he was in prison. How does it feel to back with carlos . I will tell you it is the best gift of my life when i saw him. I could not believe its that he was here. It was early in the morning and i was surprised. It was a miracle. Maria how are you feeling yourself, carol, now that there is a warrant for your arrest. You feel safe where you are the two of you . No, i think we are safe because there is no extradition. And with him being out of japan anything is better than carlos being in japan. [inaudible] maria carless when carol joined us she told us a little bit about the conditions you face. I was struck by some of the things they did to you. I assume because they wanted to do to confess. For example you touched on this yesterday, the lights were on all day, you did not know if it was night or day. Can you walk us through some of the things you face while in japan . Yes, obviously im not going to make a very good description, but most of the things were like we had the lights on all the time in the cell. You could shower only twice a week. You have only 30 minutes exposure during the lights and that was only during the working days and not on the weekend because no one was on staff. But the most important thing is the interrogation can take place at any moment and up to eight hours a day without the presence of your lawyer. But what all of these interrogations are taped and they can be accessed by the lawyers. Maria my thanks to carlos and carol. More wall street right after this. Any comments doug . Yeah. Only pay for what you need with Liberty Mutual. Only pay for what you need with Liberty Mutual. Con Liberty Mutual solo pagas lo que necesitas. Only pay for what you need. Only pay for what you need. Liberty. Liberty. Liberty. Liberty. I am not for ignoring the first sign of a cold. I am for shortening my cold, with zicam zicam is completely different. Unlike most other cold medicines, zicam is clinically proven to shorten colds. I am a zifan for zicam oral or nasal. Everything your trip needs, for everyone you love. Expedia. For everyone you love. Car vending machines and buying a car 100 online. Vented now weve created a brand new way for you to sell your car. Whether its a year old or a few years old, we want to buy your car. So go to carvana and enter your license plate, answer a few questions, and our technowizardry calculates your cars value and gives you a real offer in seconds. When youre ready, well come to you, pay you on the spot, and pick up your car. Thats it. So ditch the old way of selling your car, and say hello to the new way at carvana. You may have gingivitis. When you brush, and the clock could be ticking towards bad breath, receding gums, and possibly. Tooth loss. Help turn back the clock on gingivitis with parodontax. Leave bleeding gums behind. Parodontax. Maria welcome back the week ahead will be a huge one for investors. We have the signing ceremony of the phase was of the china deal with the United States on wednesday. Thats the 15th. And we are also expecting the usmc a trade deal passing in the senate at some point this upcoming week as well. Coming up here right on the Program Next Week and another jampacked showing got the chairman and ceo of jerry dimond of j. P. Morgan in an exclusive interview. White house trade advisor peter navarro. My special guest next weekend. Ill see you sunday morning on the Fox News Channel for sunday morning futures my big guest former president ial chief strategist steve bannon and has my minority leader kevin mccarthy. Catch the show live 10 00 a. M. Eastern on fox news. And i hope youll join me every weekday right here on foxbusiness start smart tune in weekdays bulldogs. Melissa bulls bears now. David making history once again the dow hitting a major milestone 29,000 for the first time ever, during intraday trading today before losing steam, but white house economic counsel director larry kudlow says investors and consumers still have reason to celebrate and hi, everybody this is bulls bears thanks for joining us im david asman joining me on the panel adam lashinsky, jackie deangelis, gary b. Smith, and jonathan max ferris. Good to see you all, well it was during white house economic director Larry Kudlows interview with our own Stuart Varney that the dow crossed 29,000 during the interview and retreated after the u. S. Announced new sanctions on iran. Kudlow though saying everyone has benefited from the
comparemela.com © 2020. All Rights Reserved.