Many, former Vice President joe biden, has seen his poll numbers slip. His campaign has been dogged by gaffes and lackluster debate performances, plus he continues to deal with questions about his involvement with you yard line. Ukraine. Senator Elizabeth Warren is facing real resistance especially from the democratic establishment over her plans more fullty trillion multitrillion dollar social programs. Senator Bernie Sanders too is plagued by worries about his europeanlike socialist proposals. And with south bend mayor Pete Buttigieg has made inroads especially in iowa, he remains in fourth place. Just last week former new york mayor Mike Bloomberg filed to be on the ballot in alabama and later addedded arkansas saying hes concerned a fading biden will mean the democrats will end up with someone far too liberal. And this week Deval Patrick announced that he was throwing his hat in the wing. He fears the current candidates wont be able to beat the sitting president. And, of course, theres always Hillary Clinton, isnt there . Although she insists that shes not running, shes been dropping subtle hints that maybe, just maybe, she might change her mind and go for a rematch with the president. On tuesday she told the bbc i, as i say, never, never, never say never. And i will certainly tell you im under enormous pressure from many, many, many people to think about it. Who might break out of the democratic pack, and how will the politics of impeachment play out . Here to help answer those questions is someone certainly well versed in democratic politics, mark penn was Hillary Clintons chief strategist in her 2008 campaign and is also a key was also a key adviser to bill clinton. He join ares me from washington. Mark, thank you very much for being here. Thank you. Gerry lets start with politics of impeachment. Seeing these hearings weve had this week, do you think theyre moving needle in terms of Public Opinion at all for next years election . Well, i dont think anyone is winning in the sense that people are always trying to say, well, whos gaining a political advantage out of whats happening. I think that the more this goes on, the democrats are or up to charge that all they did was with impeachment, and the more President Trump feels compelled to respond to everything that is said or done, more he also tends to dig himself in. You know, i wish hed be listening to president clintons advise, which i was quite surprised this week about how to handle impoochment which is to impeachment which is to let other people handle it. Gerry both sides voters will be energized by this, democrats because they really want to see the president removed from office, and theyll go out and vote against him, republicans because they regard the whole thing as a coup detat. That conventional wisdom right . Well, i think that is right. I think each sides revving up their base. But general electionses, unlike primaries, are not decided by bases. Theyre decided by swing voters, and swing voters right now dont like President Trump, they dont like the democrats, and they dont like the republicans. And so they continue to dig holes into their bases while leaving swing voters perplexed about how are we going to get things done in this country. Gerry how many swing voters are there these days . We hear about the base and its all about turnout. How big is the panel of persuadable voters . Well, i often say were a 404020 country which is to say that youll get about 40 that would impeach trump regardless of any facts and side with democrats on almost all issues, and theres about 40 that would agree with that famous statement that President Trump said that he should shoot someone on fifth avenue, still get there support, and theres about 20 that actually is capable of going back or forth depending upon how issues and how things in the country may themselves out. And i think that 20 is underrated and important. Gerry you saw very close hand the impeachment of president clinton more than 20 years ago. That did seem to work out different, it did work out very well for his party in the 1998 midterms. Well, i think, i think much to the republicans chagrin, it did. And i think that we stuck, i think, quite strongly to a message that, hey, im out here doing the countrys business while the republicans are playing partisan game, and i think we were also very successful at discrediting the whole idea of trying to impeach the president on the basis of his relations with monica lewinsky. Gerry as you said earlier on this, as on many, many other things, it doesnt look like President Trump is any mind to listen to president bill clintons advice. Instead, he seems to want to get actively involved in the impeachment process himself, constantly sort of live tweeting it. Does that, i mean, is clinton right . Its better just to stay out of it and let the democrats kind of create the scene that theyre creating for themselves . Well, look, at the time i was part of devising a strategy that says, look, in any crisis the most important thing to americans and even in corporate crises is can the leader continue to lead the country effectively. Thats the most important thing when we delivered the state of the union or went to united nations, the country said, look, the president s the president x this whole impeachment thing will play itself out. Then we appointed a group of people to go out there and battle every day, and except in those time when it was shul necessary, we kept the absolutely necessary we kept the president above the fray. And thats why president clinton had a 73 Approval Rating which is something you dont see in this country im not even sure that given the partisanship its even possible anymore to have that kind of a Approval Rating. And our Economic Conditions were about as good as they are now. Gerry have you seen any evidence that the impeachment process so far is changing President Trumps Approval Rating in its been going on, obviously, now for a couple months. No. I think in general the president s Approval Ratings have been unaffected by the ukraine situation. But hes at 45, not at 65 or 70, so hes 20, 25 points back from where president clinton was at that time. He has an election coming up, so so things, i think, are seen even in a more partisan nature. I notice democratic numbers actually have come up a little. I think democrats are energizing their base. Democrats have been saying when is the party going to do something about donald trump, and so i think in some sense the party base is definitely rewarding the democrats. And i understand theres record fundraising on the republican side. So, you know, in terms of a divided country, i could think of nothing that promotes energizing the base, raising money and more combative election and electorate than going through an impeachment trial. Gerry mark, stay with us. Were going to take a short break, and when we come back, were going to get on to that 2020 democratic field. 2020 democratic field. Want to get your 2020 democratic field. Want to get your do you recall, not long ago we would walk on the sidewalk all around the wind blows we would only hold on to let go blow a kiss into the sun we need someone to lean on blow a kiss into the sun we needed somebody to lean on all we need is someone to lean on could another come aroundot, the corner. Or could it play out differently . I wanted to help protect myself. My doctor recommended eliquis. Eliquis is proven to treat and help prevent another dvt or pe blood clot. Almost 98 of patients on eliquis didnt experience another. And eliquis has significantly less major bleeding than the standard treatment. Eliquis is fdaapproved and has both. Dont stop eliquis unless your doctor tells you to. Eliquis can cause serious and in rare cases fatal bleeding. Dont take eliquis if you have an artificial heart valve or abnormal bleeding. If you had a spinal injection while on eliquis call your doctor right away if you have tingling numbness or muscle weakness. While taking eliquis, you may bruise more easily. And it may take longer than usual for bleeding to stop. Seek immediate medical care for sudden signs of bleeding like unusual bruising. Eliquis may increase your bleeding risk if you take certain medicines. Tell your doctor about all planed medical or dental procedures. Whats around the corner could be your moment. Ask your doctor about eliquis. Gerry my guest is mark penn. Mark, the 2020 democratic field has already been very crowded, and just in the last week or two we start hearing even more names; bloomberg, Deval Patrick, i keep hearing rumors that maybe john kerry might consider getting back in the race. The person you worked for, Hillary Clinton, wont rule out a run. Maybe, you know, who knows, al gore [laughter] you know, how is this going to shape up . Well, look, ive been saying for quite some time that it was likely that one of bloomberg or Hillary Clinton or john kerry or a couple of others would get in the race given the fact that no one in the field was break over 30 in the polls consistently. And i think you saw that bloomberg saw an opportunity, and hes moving forward, and i think hes very much moving forward and will have a strong candidacy e if biden doesnt really pull it through in the early states. I think it puts a lot of pressure, you know, on the biden campaign. Look, i think hillary, ive said, could get in, has a tremendously positive rating with democrats. If not a nationally strong rating. But i think the window is now really closing. These are really the last couple of days that someone can get in and i think really play in enough states to make a difference or get in in a meaningful way. Gerry you really do think that Hillary Clinton, i mean, you know, two time twice shes run, twice shes failed . Are you hearing a lot of clamor for her to get in . I know she said this week that many, many, many people are calling on her to run. Is that true. Well, you know, i ran a poll recently in which we put hillary, bloomberg and kerry in the mix, and she was tied with biden. So i think theres no doubt that shes looking at a strong possibility of coming back. And remember nixon had the nomination twice and was given a second chance. Look, im not, im not selling it or unselling it. Im giving an observation that theres a realistic opportunity for her. I think had he prison above the fray after losing risen above the fray after losing 2016, i think she would have been in a much better position. Thats not exactly what she did. But if we dont hear from her in the next couple days, i think you can consider that book closed. Gerry do you think we will . I think at this i give it about a 40 chance. So, you know, no one has a very high probability of getting in or being president , but, you know, at this point i would have thought she would have made the decision about now. Gerry all these names from the past bloomberg, hillary, john kerry, others what does it say about the current state of the democratic race that all these other people might be considering or actually are getting into it . Well, it say within the Democrat Party theres been a bit of a leadership gap, particularly a lot of the Office Holders have held onto their offices, and is so they didnt really give an opportunity for the next generation to advance. I think in many ways when you look at the overall age of either, a lot of the candidates and the potential candidates. And so this leadership gap, i think, is emerging here where the strongest new leadership is coming out more on the left, and 40 president of democrat 40 of democratic voters are moderate. They saw biden as a potential leader, and as you said, his campaign look, i wouldnt count him out by any means. Political figures have a way of coming back from being down and out. If you can come back in hawaii hawaii in iowa and new hampshire, i think bloomberg would probably not bother. But hes got to do that if hes going to take the democratic nomination. By the way, i think its likely going to the convention. I dont see anybody right new in this field now in this field getting a majority of democrats the way gerry right. Theyve changed the way that its, essentially, proportional delegate allocation from each state, just about. If you get 15 or more, you get your proportional share of the delegates. In virtually every state, and that then makes it very difficult for somebody to get momentum and then carry through in the big states the way the republican primaries switch over. Gerry a brokeredded convention. Journalists have been dreaming journalists have been dreaming about it look. Only one things more exciting than getting a lexus. Ahhhh giving one. The lexus december to rembember sales event lease the 2020 nx 300 for 329 a month for 27 months. Experience amazing at your lexus dealer. groans hmph. food grunting menacingly when the food you love doesnt love you back, stay smooth and fight heartburn fast with tums smoothies. Tum tumtum tum tums but you dont feel good. With polycythemia vera, pv, symptoms can change so slowly over time you might not notice. But new or changing symptoms can mean your pv is changing. Lets change the way we see pv. You track and discuss blood counts with your doctor. But its just as vital to discuss changing symptoms as well. Take notice and take action. Discuss counts and symptoms with your doctor. Visit takeactionpv. Com gerry strategist and pollster mark penn is with me. One reason why this is so much momentum in so many people considering getting in the race is that bluntly theres concern about Elizabeth Warren. They think she probably is the frontrunner. The early days, of course, we dont know. And if she gets the mom nation, she nomination, she simply cant beat President Trump. Too liberal, her Health Care Plans just completely unimaginable. Do you think thats right . I think that its a very, very difficult course for Elizabeth Warren to beat President Trump and her 50 trillion plus Health Care Plan that would eliminate all private insurance, i think, was a huge setback to the momentum that she was having. I think people were listening to the overall great slogans, medicare for all, lets have reduce inequality, claiming she was a capitalist compared to Bernie Sanders being a true socialist, and then out comes this program that i think became a huge liability and then created both fear and opportunity; fear that if she got the nomination, that she would lose to President Trump, and opportunity in the sense that then there was a new opening that bloomberg and perhaps other will get into. Gerry she did, her numbers do seem to have stalled in the last month or so. She seemed to be on very much a continuous upward trajectory, but she seem to have stall out. Well, a 50 trillion plan will do that for you. [laughter] gerry what about Bernie Sanders in this contest for the ultraliberal vote, is it possible that he could still somehow steal the nomination as he tried to do in 2016 . Well, i think hes got a constituency, particularly among younger voters, he does fairly well with latinos. He was the first really for free college, and i think the real, i think, issue here will those two fight each other to the end or the at the convention or otherwise one of them drop out or get together. If they get together, i suspect they will achieve close to a majority voting bloc, and it will be up to the, up to the superdelegates to really decide it. But separately, its pretty difficult for either one of them to get the full nomination. Gerry as we stand now from your polling and your judgment, which candidate, democratic candidate has the best shot of beating President Trump . Of existing candidates or dream candidate that you could imagine. Oh, i definitely think biden has the best chance of beating President Trump because what did President Trump do . President trump took the working class voters out of the democratic column and put them in his column. At the same time, suburban voters that had been staying republican have now in the midterms trended quite significantly democratic. So youre seeing a realignment of the whole country. To win, trump needs to hold onto his working class voters and win the suburbs, and thats the problem he has. Biden significantly cuts into his working class constituency. With him as the nominee, unless he in general doesnt fare as well as he has in the past, he could make significant inroads in the midwest. Gerry what are bidens biggest negatives . Well, look, people are questioning in some way whether those gaffes are representative of his ability, and i think some of the things that happened with his son and whether he was or was not attentive to it are real issues. And so those two are emerging. I dont think its affecting his democratic support because the people who are supporting him just really, really like him, you know . They see him as uncle joe, they see him as honest, they see him as having helped president obama. The problem is he has not been able to grow beyond thatting constituency. Gerry finally, because weve got to wrap up, mark, democrats do have a habit of sort of spreading themselves out, trying all kinds of contenders. Somebody reminded me at this stage in what was then the 2004 democratic race which was eventually, obviously, run by john kerry, wesley clark was leading at that point. And we also had, of course, howard dean. So there is a tendency for democrats to sort of try out something new, isnt there . Before they come home, as it were. In the very first poll i ever did in 975, we left 1975, we left out one of the president ial candidates. Who is it . Jimmy carter. No, forget about it. [laughter] so, yes, theres a tendency for there to be real surprise. On the other hand, the problem here no one has a clear majority say, you know with, gore had or Hillary Clinton had. And at the same time, a number of candidates have significant constituencies that theyre going to be holding onto, and thats why i think youre going to wind up at a convention. Gerry thanks, mark. My thanks to mark penn. And just ahead, why the impeachment investigation in the house could impact a lot more than Donald Trumps presidency. vo the moth without hope, struggles in the spiders web. With every attempt to free itself, it only becomes more entangled. Unaware that an exhilarating escape is just within reach. Defy the laws of human nature. At the season of audi sales event. A former army medic, made of the we maflexibility to handle members like kate. Whatever monday has in store and tackle four things at once. So when her car got hit, she didnt worry. She simply filed a claim on her usaa app and said. I got this. Usaa insurance is made the way kate needs it easy. She can even pick her payment plan so its easy on her budget and her life. Usaa. What youre made of, were made for. 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Gerry this week the television networks, but the substance didnt really match the form. For all the talk of a grave constitutional process, i think we all know how this drama ends. Its like watching professional wrestling; a lot of rhetorical rolling around the canvas, but lets face it, if donald trump is not impeached in the house and then acquitted in the senate, something will have gone ea wry with the promoters plans. The spectacle less about fulfilling constitutional obligation and more about appealing to voters as they go to the polls next year. The democrats hope the attention will sow doubts and spur their own supporters to come out to the polls. Republicans think exactly the same, only the other way around. The problem here is the supposedly rare and unique constitutional thought of impeachment. And with an election less than a year away, surely a better chance to try a president s judgment. Please be sure to follow me on twitter, facebook and instagram. Ill be back next week light here on right here on the wall street journal at large. Thank you for joining me. Barrons round table sponsored by this week john stein on how the robo adviser is taking on the banking industry. The worlds most Profitable Company is poised to go public next month. And Holly Newman Cross joins the panel on how you can create an income stream after retirement. The barrons round table starts now. Welcome to barrons round table where the sharpest minds on wall street prepare you for the week ahead. Im jack otter. We begin with what we think are the three most important thi
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