Transcripts For FBC Cavuto Coast To Coast 20240713

With the turkish leader. Much of the focus quite appropriately for the Business Network what the chairman of the Federal Reserve is saying right now. You know had three rate cuts this year. The third one just last month. He seems to be indicating he will keep his powder dry, holding fire for a moment. He acknowledges trade headwinds, other issues could slow things down. He is always ready to pounce if need be. He is certainly not indicating anytime soon. Get the read percent from our own Edward Lawrence. He has been monitoring all of this. Edward . Reporter neil, the testimony will go on for another 30 minutes or so when the Federal Reserve chairman has to leave here. Federal reserve chairman Jerome Powell told senators and Congress People does not see a rate cut for december unless check data would come in better than expected. He said the Federal Reserve would act going forward. He painted a glowing picture of the economy. He said the Consumer Spending. Wages are rising. Job market helped the consumer spend. Powell says the strong job market is driving the economy because consumer continues to spend. He sees that rising spending from the consumer throughout the rest of the year he says, at least into next year. He is concerned about inflation undershooting the target again. But he framed debate related to Interest Rates and inflation like this. Listen. We see the current stance of Monetary Policy as likely to remain appropriate as long as incoming information about the economy remains broadly consistent with our outlook of moderate growth, a strong labor market and inflation near our symmetric 2 objective. Reporter powell says he is watching risks to the economy, Global Economic slowdown, trade uncertainty. He is concerned to see if that will affect the u. S. Economy going forward. He says businesses taken on too much risk with debt. That is something the Federal Reserve is watching. The Federal Reserve chairman turned to lawmakers, putting congress on notice, saying the federal debt is on unsustainable path. He wept further than that today. He said unless congress can get control of this unsustainable path it will hurt their ability to help in an economic downturn with economic stimulus going forward. So, neil, again the headlines here. No rate cut in december he is signaling unless the Economic Data turns south. He says the consumer will continue to spend. He is watching weakness in business investment. He says the consumer will drive this economy through the holidays, into next year. Neil . Neil thank you very, very much my friend, Edward Lawrence. Two things before we go back to the powell hearings, your money, not playing political favorites here, this is event that you should watch and monitor what is happening on impeachment front. Were listening closely to William Taylor testimony, acting ambassador to ukraine. Only thing i saw potentially newsworthy or white house rattling his saying that President Trump seemed to care much more about investigating joe biden than about the ukraine itself. If that is a bombshell or smoking gun, in the eye of the beholder. Were monitoring that very, very closely as we will later on with george kent, Deputy Assistant of secretary state your european and Eurasian Affairs and his recollection of the phone call impact on ukraine. For your money, Jerome Powell, only Jerome Powell will have so much to say about continuation of a recovery the president says is second to none in the postworld war ii period. That is in the eye of buy holder. Federal reserve chairman is big reason. Three rate cuts for this year. That might be it for the time become time being. No indications that the chairman will change the economy anytime soon. The goldilocks variety, not too strong, not too weak, inflation held at bay, inflation not necessarily invisible. To hear the fed chairman tell it, perfect. Lets go to the hearing. Look exclusively at the data, at the research, at the performance of the u. S. Economy, those are things, we have a very careful, thoughtful process thats been developed over decades, over a century really. That is how we try to set Interest Rates. We dont consider political factors and things like that in what we do. Thank you. I have a friend in switzerland who went to borrow 10 million. Got a negative Interest Rate, negative. 3 of a percent. Theyre paying him 30,000 a year to borrow 10 million. Do you see any prospect of negative Interest Rates in the u. S. Con . Negative Interest Rates would not be appropriate in the current environment. Our economy is in strong position. We have growth. Consumer sector. Inflation below target. Very, very low, even negative rates we see around the world would not be appropriate for our economy. Those, you tend to see negative rates in the larger economies at times when growth is quite low and inflation is quite low. That is just not the case here. It is different for some smaller european countries. It is about keeping currency from appreciation which is the case with number of countries. From december 15th, through december 2018, slow consistent increases in rates. We turned that around with recent cuts this year. Is there enough room to cut rates further if we get another slowdown or recession . Have we given up Monetary Policy as a tool at the moment for dealing with that . Well, typical postworld war to recession involved rate cuts of close to 5 . The current federal fun rate is in the mid 150s. So were well short of that. 1 1 2 . So, i think it is, it is a fact not just in the United States but around the world that Central Banks are going to have less room to cut in this new normal of lower rates and low inflation. So thats why we are conducting this external review of Monetary Policy at the fed. Were looking for ways to make sure that we have the tools to do what were assigned to do by you, which is achieve maximum employment and stable prices, even in downturns. And thats what were going to be doing. I will say also, that fiscal policy is often, part of the answer, often a big part of the answer when there is a severe downturn. We would certainly look for that to be the case if needed. Thank you, again. By bringing up the challenge that public debt faces all of us here. I was raised to believe that money supply and growth were causally related. If money supply grew quicker than Economic Outlook that inflation was net result. Were less than 2 this year. You have muted expectations. Is there no longer connection between money supply growth and inflation . Should i Pay Attention to modern monetary theories, for example . So the connection between monetary aggregates and inflation is something we all learned in econ 101. I did. It was important. It was generally thought empirically a good relationship. I think about 40 years ago as the Financial System developed all kind of alternative forms of money, the relationship between monetary aggregates and growth has just gone away. So we dont, we look at those aggregates. They no longer are driving part of the theory. It is price of money as opposed to quantity that we look at which is Interest Rates. Im out of time. But thank you, very much. Mr. Chairman i yield. Senator cotton. Thank you, mr. Chairman, chairman powell welcome back. I want to Start Talking about chinas Economic Growth. Chinas Economic Growth in quotes. They have reported most recently 6 1 2 growth. Thats down from most of the last 30 years. Still probably somewhat inflated. In fact, Michael Pettis at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace says chinese industrialists and economists find hard to find any economic sector enjoying growth. They had a few findings he found to be quite interesting. Gdp is not particularly useful measure for determining chinese growth because they have massive investments in nonproductive activities. Second, china likely distorts its gdp significantly in a way that is systematically pushing it higher. Third, that increasingly gdp as reported in china is not so much a measure of economic out put but measure of political intent given the benchmarks china imposes on local governments as many, as well as many stateowned enterprises. As long as they have debt capacity and can postpone writing down of nonproductive assets they could essentially achieve any growth target they wanted. What are your thoughts about this general question of chinese growth and the specific points that mr. Pettiss research have found . I think its very hard, i certainly feel that its very hard to understand china. You can read all you want, visit all the time but nonetheless it is still very hard i think for me anyway to really feel like you understand the way the economy works, the way the society works. So i think there is, i think you have to as a general matter, just accept that its really hard to know. I think on Economic Data in particular, you know, we dont, im familiar with Michael Pettis and his research and all that but we, we havent taken a view as an institution about that. I think couple things are worth noting. One is that you know, the it may that be there is more information in the change than there is in the level if you know what i mean. The other we noticed here in the last few years that the volatility of their economic reports has declined substantially which is kind of suggest as little more management. Nonetheless we dont really know. The truth is we dont really know. We take the data, we take it with a bit of a grain of salt. You spend at the Federal Reserve capable economist there is look at underlying indicators, statistics try to suggestion the direction of our economy. When you look not just how the chinese leadership in the communist party behave but when you look at some of those indicators, how their people are behaving, how other things, like Energy Inputs or shipping, so forth, do you see a country behaving as if they have almost 7 growth right now . Its hard to say. I would say, one thing that is notable is, they have not responded with massive stimulus at this, to this current situation. They have had, obviously over a longer period of time growth has been slowing from detect decades of 10 as an economy matures. I think theyre trying to manage that decline. They did put an awful lot of stimulus to work after the financial crisis and, that supported their growth. I think they have been much more cautious and careful. They have a Deleveraging Campaign as im sure you know, that has been going on now for one or two years. They havent really backed away from that. That is part of, by the way, i think that is part of the global slow down actually is trying to, trying to at least stop debt from growing inside of china where they have usually high debt as a society for any emerging market nation. So i would say theyre behaving relatively thought fully and responsibly in response, they appear to be in response to this current slowdown. Thank you, my time has expired. Senator hassan. Thank you, very much, mr. Chair. I appreciate your and the vicechairs convening of this meeting and to chair powell, thank you for being here and your work. Mr. Powell as you know it is critical to the longterm safety and stability of the u. S. Economy that the Federal Reserve makes data driven decisions and remains independent from political influence. Unfortunately recent political pressure on the fed is having real World Economic consequences. A recent study found that markets react each time you are publicly pressured to intervene in the economy. With quantifiable change in investors expectations that the feds Interest Rate targets will drop. Chair powell, can you tell the committee what actions you are taking at the Federal Reserve to not only insulate against political influence but also to signal to investors that the fed makes independent decisions based on sound economic analyses . Thank you. So politics plays absolutely no role in our decisions. We use the best data, the best integrity. So, i am familiar with that research. I would say, i think it is very hard to look at, you know, our incredibly complicated Financial Markets and economy where many, many things are driving results, pull out one or two tiny effects. There is other research that points to different results but i would, it is absolutely essential that everyone understands we are doing our jobs as we always have without regard to politics. We serve all americans. We do the best we can based on our analysis. We try to be as transparent as we can. We explain ourselves. Put everything we do on the record. People dissent, they put their dissent on the record. That is as it should be. I think it is important to understand that research is complicated that we dont complicate it further with political actors putting pressure on the fed and that has been the norm and tradition. I hope it is one we can return to. I wanted to follow up on something senator lee talked about, as member of the Senate Finance committee with jurisdiction over trade, im pushing for clear, strategic trade policy that provides certainty to struggling small businesses. As you and i talked about, i heard from businesses across the state targeted by chinas up fair trade practices theft of intellectual property and forced transfer of proprietary technology. On top of these economic harms, the administration manufactured endless trade uncertainty and heaped damaging tariffs on new hampshires businesses. I know you have repeatedly said chair powell this recent trade uncertainty has created risks for the u. S. And global economies. Can you expand a bit on your previous answer how trade uncertainty impacted the Economic Outlook, what you view as the feds proper role with regard to the on going trade tensions from china . We hear from businesses. Have been hearing a yearandahalf, this is a big issue for them. That it is heading them back from making decision. In the first instance, businesses were looking at ways to rearrange their supply chains, almost all manufacturing businesses these days have supply chains. It has been real distraction for management. I think it weighed on businesses willingness and ability to, to, you know, to invest and keep growing, that kind of thing. In terms of the appropriate response, you know, our response is not to give advice on trade policy but it is to react to whatever it is, that either helping or hurting our ability to achieve our mandated goals. So this is one of those things. We call it out as something that we are aware of and as something that is weighing on Business Sentiment and ultimate thely on the economy. Thank you for that and i will just note we may submit to the record that i share representatives frankels interest and concern about the inflation gap. It is not just a wage gap, but inpack of inflation at particular middle class families and i hope that is something we can learn more about from the fed. Thank you, mr. Chair. Senator heinrich. Welcome, chairman and thank you for coming to testify today. I had a chance recently to meet with a number of European Central bankers and they really outline for a group of us the steps theyre taking to understand and quantify and mitigate the risks that Climate Change is posing to the Financial Markets. So i wanted to ask you what the fed is doing to understand those risks and to look at their role in the economy as were moving forward . I just say Climate Change is an important issue but not principally one, is not one given princely to the fed to deal with if you will. Other agencies have that. Clearly that is the case. I just want to understand, if were looking in a broadway at risk and understanding the data from that sort of lens . I think that is the right lens. The lens for us is risk management. So we are, were doing, their research all throughons of Climate Change for the economy, for Financial Institutions and for all kind of things. I think thats appropriate research. Were just globally at the beginning of understanding that. There is a lot of research boeing on including a significant amount at fed. I think, honestly for Monetary Policy it is not a current consideration. It would not be something that would have any effect on the current setting of Monetary Policy. Over time though, it could, for example, affect the neutral rate of interest or volatility of economic activity. Things like that. Those are things were thinking about for the longer term. I think the public will expect us to assess any risk and use that assessment way we supervise and regulate Financial Institutions and potentially over longer term the Monetary Policy. Do you have an opinion on robustness of how u. S. Banks broadly are analyzing that risk . Basically im asking whether we need to selfimpose or at some point impose some sort of stress test to look at assets banks are holding, whether theyre not, whether they dont have some concentration of risk, if theyre not thinking through that appropriately . What were doing now is we are trying to make sure that Financial Institutions that are in regions that may be subject to Severe Weather have plans to redundant systems to be resilient to that. That is the main thing were doing. Bank of england, sounds like youre aware is doing a stress test based on climate scenarios. Its a stress test that is meant to be purely informative. It wouldnt do what our ccar distributionses. That is an interesting idea. Well monitor it. I think well benefit from some activity around the world seeing whether Central Banks. Well learn from what theyre doing. Obviously already seeing some places where it is harder to turn over a house in floodprone areas. If you had a concentration of mortgages you were holding in areas like that, obviously could pose a real financial risk. Do you think that gdp data adequately gives us enough of a picture about who is benefiting from the economy and, i guess in other words, should we be looking how Economic Growth is being distributed across the quintiles of the economy . I think it is really hard to capture Gross Domestic Product in 22 trilliondollar economy. I think it is, people who do that, do a great job at it but its quite difficult. We actually, it is interesting to try to cut the income data. Were doing some of that now with distributional financial accounts. Other agencies are doing the same thing. When you have the data, we have tendency to want to cut it up different ways to see what we learn. Were doing that it is informative about the way income and wealth are shared broadly speaking in the country. It is an important perspective. Were certainly looking forward to seeing that data. Great. Thank you. Snored cruz,. Thank you, mr. Chairman. Chairman powell, welcome, thank you for your testimony. Were right now experiencing remarkable Economic Growth across the country. We have the lowest unemployment in 50 years. We have the lowest africanamerican unemployment ever recorded. We have the lowest hispanic unemployment ever recorded. In your judgment, what economic policies have played the most important part in generating that Economic Growth that were seeing right now . Well, i think, i would be reluctant to single out particular policies. I will say this though. It has been a long, slow, recovery but it has come a long way. Were in the 11th year. It is longest since we began creeping credible records of the u. S. Economy, since the mid 1800s. We hope a significant way to go. Weve seen continued improvement. I would point to a couple things. These long expansionses are common now. That is really because we conquered high inflation. Weve seen three of the four longest expansions in u. S. History have been among the last four expansions. So it is become the norm to have these long ones. I think i hope everyone takes credit for the good economy were seeing now. It is really good place. I think it is worth noting as you mentioned 50year low in unemployment. Wages moving up at bottom of the scale more than anywhere else. Growth continuing at a solid pace in the 11th year of the expansion. It is a really good time. I want everyone to get credit for that. Not us. So, i have real concerns going into 2020 we may see a slowdown in investments as those allocating capital look at the political scene and look at some of the economic proposals being put forth by Democratic Candidates for president. And, i have concerns that that may cause people to tap the brakes in terms of deploying capital until at least after the election, finding out whether these policies might possibly be implemented. In your judgment, what would the likely Economic Impact be of the federal government implementing a massive tax increase . Senator, im pretty reluctant to be pulled into the 2020 election, if you will forgive me. I certainly dont expect you to comment on the election but you can comment on the economy. If a massive tax increase is good or bad for the economy . Again, you know, that is indirectly, as you started out your question its about proposals of candidates and i just, you know, honestly dont want to get into that business if i, you will forgive me . Well let me ask you a number of candidates are proposing a wealth tax, not just on income but on wealth. Do you have any views on the economic behavior that would likely follow from a wealth tax, scaling as high as 8 annually . It is really not our role to score or evaluate campaign proposals. You know, that is what the cbo does. That is what lots of other people do. We try to stay out of that business. Lets try a different thing. Former chairman ben bernanke in 2014 called the shale revolution, quote, one of the most beneficial economic developments in the country. Do you share that assessment and be conversely, do you have concerns about the impact on the economy if the federal government were to ban fracking and shut down the shale revolution . I would certainly agree. I think that the Energy Independence of the United States is something that we people have been talking about for 50 years and i never thought it would happen and here it is. It is in the nature of a miracle it seems to me. So its a great thing i would say. It has been a great thing for the country. Would it be harmful to end it . I economically . I wouldnt be looking, i wouldnt be, i think to shut down the shale industry, yeah, that would probably not be a good thing for the economy . Thank you. Thank you, very much, mr. Chairman. We know you have a hard stop in two minutes. I wanted to use my prerogative as chairman to ask one final question. Were in the middle of some pretty strong economic activity, very low unemployment. Almost unprecedented economic stability. What policy or policies should we pursue to keep that going . Well, i think that the, if, youre asking for my views on that, i think that the, the thing to focus on, if i were in your shoes, are the longerrun issues we face, particularly around Labor Force Participation and growth. It is about potential growth of the United States. Were seeing now how important it is and how good it is to have a long expansion with a lot of growth and how it benefits people across the income spectrum. So i cant overstate the importance of that. I think in the longer run, the things we need to address are Labor Force Participation and productivity which is closely linked to education. So i think our workers need to have the skills and apptitudes to win in a Global Economy. And, those are the things that are going to matter for our children and our grandchildren is what can we do now to keep the u. S. Sustainable longer term growth rate as high as it can be going forward. Thank you very much. Thanks so much for joining us today. Thanks for your service on behalf of our country. Record is open for two weeks. We stand adjourned. Thank you very much. Neil when all said and done this will be the probably more consequential hearing today. The Federal Reserve chairman outlining the state of the economic land as the recovery continues. The Federal Reserve says others should share for a 11 year long recovery under two different president s, without naming names. He said everyone has had a hand in all of that. He refused to criticize the president or get into the debate whether the president thinks he has sort of botched it here by hiking rates too soon, reversing course and not cutting them enough or as quickly as he wanted. Didnt get drunk into that debate. With senator ted cruz did not get drawn into the debate about some other candidates run for president , Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders who have variations on a wealth tax. He did offer if there was a move on this country to get rid of fracking, suddenly make it illegally, that would probably not be economic advantageous but he left it at that. Meantime the president is meeting at white house with turkish president erdogan. They remain friends. This has been a very good giveandtake between the two. That has changed since all of that dustup in northern syria. Troops remain in place there to protect the oil and oil is protected. The president of the United States how in the white house talking about some of the things we just outlined here as well as these impeachment hearings. He said he is simply too busy to watch. Thank you very much. A great honor to be with the president erdogan. Mrs. Erdogan, we appreciate you being here. First lady, thank you very much. I know you are going out to lunch after this. Great honor to have you. The border is holding very well. The ceasefire is holding very well. Weve been speaking to the kurds and they seem to be very satisfied. As you know weve pulled back our troops quite a while ago because i think it is time for us not to be worried about other peoples borders. I want to worry about our borders. We have plenty of borders to worry about. I want to thank the president for the job they have done. Again, this has been thousands of years in the process between borders, between, these countries and other countries that were involved with 7,000 miles away. We are keeping oil. The oil is secure. We left troops behind only for the oil and i have to just finish by saying that the president and i have been, weve been very good friends. Weve been friends for a long time, almost from day one and we understand each others country. We understand where were coming from. I understand the problems they have had including many people from turkey being killed in the area were talking about. He has to do something about that also. It is not a oneway street. I want to say a great honor to have you both. Thank you very much. Thank you. You go ahead, please. [inaudible] would you like to Say Something . Thank [speaking in native tongue] translator , mr. President , thank you in a few moments we hall be having larger scale press meeting. I dont feel the need to come up with longer statements here. Thank you. A lot of truth to that i will say were also talking about about a trade deal. We do proportionally little trade with turkey. They make great product. We make the greatest product in the world. Frankly well expand our trade relationship very significantly. We think we can be doing 100 billion with turkey. Right now were doing about 20 billion but we think that number should be easily 100 billion which would be great for turkey, good for us. Well be expanding. We have people from commerce here. That is one of the meetings well be having. And having that big relationship i think is a very good one. So we think we can bring trade up quickly to about 100 billion between our countries. Okay . Reporter mr. President , what about the s400s . Well talk about the s400. Well be talking about that and talking about the f35 fighter jets. Reporter [inaudible]. Turkey is watching the isis fighters. When i became president isis was all over the place. I had no idea to the the extent. In fact it was shown to me about a month ago we came in, it was a mess. We took over 100 of the caliphate. Last week as you know we killed its leader and its founder. Were very proud of that fact. We also knocked out number two. We have our eye on number three who was supposed to become number one. He is running now, running for his life. But we have our sights right on him. So we are, were doing very well. Isis is very much, very much a factor that is different than it was when i took over. When i took over, thousands and thousands of isis fighters were all over. Now theyre mostly in prison. I would say the kurds are watching over them. Turkey is watching over them. Turkey recently captured over 100 isis fighters. They are taking care of them. Reporter mr. President , can turkey possess s400s or f35s . Well talk about that we may report to you later on about that were having a second meeting in a little while. Well see you in a little while. Well have a press conference of sorts in a little while. An honor to have the president and mrs. Erdogan with us. Highly respected in their country and in the region. And well see what we can do. But the relationship that weve had is good. I have heard all the pundits, 3, 4, 5 weeks ago, they were against what i did. Now all of sudden saying wow, that is really working well. Why are we guarding other countrys borders . We want to take care of our country. Theyre saying really is surprising whats happened. Plus we have our troops out of there. Well be bringing a lot of them back home. Again were keeping oil. Thank you very much, everybody. [reporters shouting questions] i did not watch it. Im too busy to watch it. Its a witchhunt, its hoax. Im too busy to watch it. Im sure i will get a report. I have not been briefed, no. There is nothing there. Theyre using lawyers, television lawyers. They took some guys off television. Im not surprised to see it, schiff cannot do his own questions. Thank you very much, everybody. [reporters shouting questions] keep moving. Come on, guys. Neil all right, my favorite part when they wrapped up something, media there tries not to let it go where they say buh bye, there is the door. President meeting with his counterpart in turkey, erdogan, indicating bipartisan calls the meeting put off. The president thought it was good idea. There was information came to light, he was not questioned about it, turkey is gathering information in the u. S. , some of its critics. That did not come up here. That is the president , turkey has done a lot for us. It captured better than 100 isis fighters. He and erdogan remain good friends. This relationship is good as well. He understands turkeys problems. He will do his best to form a trade agreement between our two countries that recognizes this. He says, the impeachment hearings that are going on simultaneous to his discussions with the turkish president , he is has not had a chance to watch them. He says remains a scam. In fact the biggest scam in the history of american politics. He also made a previous reference to the the kurds who said that they seem satisfied what happened since he largely took u. S. Troops out of northern syria. A contingent remains, the president says, to protect oil and that oil is protected and is in our best interests. Separately the impeachment hearings now are in a bit of a break here. Nothing, incredibly reflation here, but the president said the they have vested interest in monitoring them, getting investigation goingson bidens. The republicans say for some time that there was no there there, there i go with the quid pro quo thing, this for that. Did you get something for exchange for this . Only thing new comes to light, constant reminder on the part of the president to monitor where the talks are going. In the eye of the beholder whether aid was withheld. It wasnt withheld. In the end the aid came to the country. Back and forth whether any of it was pegged to whether the ukrainians were going to deliver the goods on the bidens. That too in the eye of the beholder here. Raging debate whether it is even an Impeachable Offense if it were. Im not a lawyer. I talked to lawyers on both sides of this, who claim there is something there. Other equally vehement, nothing there. Federal reserve chairman, perhaps the most morning hearing of the day, as things stand now, the fed stands ready to monitor the on going recovery breaking records left and right. Not taking the bait to criticize the president but comment the president and his predecessor for better than 11year economic recovery and bull market to go along with it. Wall street journal editorial page writer Jillian Melchior with us on that. I think they call that tap dancing for the Federal Reserve chairman and he did so not saying fred astaire like but kind of like fred astaire. What do you think . He certainly didnt want to get into the politics here but i think this is good news. Weve seen extraordinary Economic Growth. A function of both the tax cuts and deregulation which doesnt get enough attention. Trade poses some uncertainty. Like obamas regulatory efforts. Something businesses are adjusting too. I think looking at you know, workforce participation, if you look at the Unemployment Rates, this is all pretty positive economic news. Neil you know, he made it very clear, as clear as a fed chairman can without veering into fed speak is not likely to change Interest Rate policies anytime soon. The path of fed Interest Rates is likely to not change as long as economy keeps growing which it is. If he holds fire here and things are all status quo, im looking always ahead to the election and wondering if anything could disrupt that . So far not . Yeah. I think the concern is, you always want to make sure in an economic crisis the fed has some tools at its disposal. I also think it is fair to ask whether the fed should be trying to bail out some trade tensions to offset economic harm from those. So you know, that is basically where were at with this. I think, not a lot unexpected. Neil jillian, interesting you talk about the trade tensions, the fed chairman did say that was among the uncertainties going forward. Yeah. Neil that could put a slowdown in hiring, in expanded Capital Spending and the like but there is no way to quantify that just yet. Just its a worry. The president only 24 hours ago, Economic Club of new york, whatever slowdown were experience something directly at the, the feet of the Federal Reserve. So two men with two very different interpretations, what prompted this sort of hiccup . I mean i talk to a lot of business owners. I can say they are starting to adjust to the trade uncertainty. I think that is having Economic Impact. If you look at earnings calls, some commentary on that, it is promising that the seems to be moving in the right direction. Were talking about a phase one deal. But i think the underlying problem is chinas bad behavior. It is very worrisome phase one doesnt address all of that. I think it is an open question, even if we reach a trade deal with china, if they will abide by it. Other international agreements. Look what is happening in hong kong. That is something they were under an obligation to leave alone, preserve legal autonomy. They say the agreement with the british doesnt matter. It is something only symbolic, basically. That we shouldnt take them at their word. Neil even expanded to the data reported, short cotton senator cotton got a nod from the the Federal Reserve chairman, ostensibly theyre growing 6 but that is like my laiing about my weight. You can look, whatever. I wonder if the Federal Reserve chairmans way of saying look the president i dont know for sure what is really happening in china but i know theyre looseygoosey on these numbers, right . I would never trust chinese Economic Data. Anytime youre dealing with the numbers they tend to fudge them a little bit for their political benefit. Neil i call it the jon love visit approach, yeah were growing 6 , that is the ticket. Youre too young to remember that. Jillian, great read. If any of these are worried, markets have funny way of showing it. Dow, s p, nasdaq all in record territory. Despite the first impeachment hearing the better part of two decades that is the backdrop after president who says this is all a witchhunt, all a waste of time. For the timebeing the stock market seems to agree. Stay with us. Im part of a community of problem solvers. We make ideas grow. From an everyday solution. To one that can take on a bigger challenge. We are solving problems that improve lives. To one that can take on a bigger challenge. I wanted more thats why ive got the power of 1 2 3 medicines with trelegy. The only fdaapproved 3in1 copd treatment. Trelegy. The power of 123. Trelegy 123 trelegy. With trelegy and the power of 1 2 3, im breathing better. Trelegy works 3 ways to open airways, keep them open and reduce inflammation for 24 hours of better breathing. Trelegy wont replace a rescue inhaler for sudden breathing problems. Trelegy is not for asthma. Tell your doctor if you have a heart condition or high Blood Pressure before taking it. Do not take trelegy more than prescribed. Trelegy may increase your risk of thrush, pneumonia, and osteoporosis. Call your doctor if worsened breathing, chest pain, mouth or tongue swelling, problems urinating, vision changes, or eye pain occur. Think your copd medicine is doing enough . Maybe you should think again. Ask your doctor about oncedaily trelegy and the power of 1 2 3. Trelegy 123 save at trelegy. Com neil you have impeachment. You have the Federal Reserve chairman, sort of giving lay of the land on the economy. Obviously ongoing concerns with the president going ahead with his meeting with the leader of turkey, president erdogan. You would at least think there would be worried investors out there. Not today. All three major averages at least for the timebeing with at least three hours of trading to go in record territory. The dow, nasdaq, s p 500, all in record territory. A couple were in the same position yesterday before retreating a little bit by days end. Its a reminder that investors are kind of ignoring noise, certainly that weve been seeing on impeachment front. That could change. Depends in the eye of the beholder whether anything really explosive has been revealed here. So far we cant sense anything outside of the fact that the president was interested in the course of this investigation, into corruption in ukraine, particularly involving the bidens over the course of many weeks, Monitoring Development in those talks, where they stood but we kind of knew that. I guess theyre dotting is, crossing the ts, exactly casebycase where apparently there was an issue. Nothing explosive for the timebeing. Back to wall street news. Disney with all the technical difficulties they had getting people to the site to sign up for this new disney plus streaming fare, more than 10 million did. Not too shabby when you compare the 60 million installed base for netflix streamers and 28 million for hulu. This is coming right out the gate. Not too shabby. After the bell cohost connell mcshane. That is remarkable. Not too shabby at all. Domestic u. S. Subscribers that pay netflix. They have building that up for a long time. Neil six million, boom. Said from beginning it would be about content. I guess it was. A lot of people in this country love a lot of content that disney has. They have more of it they ever had after the fox acquisition they know about. There were people, anecdotally i wonder how it shows up in the numbers looking forward to the launch. I cant wait until the app comes out. Thats why the technical problems that you mentioned got so much attention yesterday. Neil right. We brushed off the company, we were overwhelmed by this we say you should have been ready for this. Maybe demand was higher than we thought. Neil 10 million, with all of that, could have been 15, 20 million, figures in future days. A lot of people are getting free verizon for a year, but allowing for that that is pretty impressive opening. A pretty impressive opening. Not as much of a free story as the story for apple on that front, giving away seems more a lot more subscriptions, anybody who buys an iphone, apple tv console, anybody buy as laptop get it for a year. You would think disney has more paid subscribers. This is a good number to get, especially when you think about how they build from here. They have all the options now where you can bundle together with espn plus and hulu. Hulu you mentioned, only at 28 million way to put it versus 10 million. Disney is in a good spot to build off it. How wickly story changed. If you went to quick on it you get error messages and the like. People get over that, if you have content and buzz starts to build. 10 misdemeanor people signed up for this . Maybe i should. Neil apple will have the own streaming service. In talks to add former hbo ceo to be a producer in that lineup. That would be an incredible get. All about content here. Apparently he had some issues in terms of creativity at hbo. After the at t acquisition was made according to reports didnt have the same type of freedom to go after shows he had been given credit for producing over the years. Some of the big ones, game of thrones, or veep came during his tenure as ceo. Not necessarily creative mind behind it, certainly somebody with a reputation knowing how to pick people in the industry who are the creative minds. Neil that service is 4. 99 a month. Already is. Theyre giving it away to people that buy apple products for a year. Neil that is nice install base. It is. Theyre much lower base in terms of content than somebody like disney has. Neil so far. So far. You add people like this, rumors about other big names in the Entertainment Industry up next at apple. Oprah is already on board and some big names in the morning show which youre showing there on the talent side. Four dramas out there right now. Its a place where you start. People are already in that ecosystem that are apple people. Yeah, i will try it out for a year. The test for applee of talent, the test for apple will come in a year when some subscriptions come up, the to decide am i in . Where is apple a year from now . My son going ahead signing up for these Services Without checking with me. Unbelievable. That is a big problem in this country. Just recently went through all my subscription on my phone. I could bring criminal charges against all three of my children. Absolutely right. They steal from me. Neil sound like about iter old man. Still bitter. Neil now an angry boomer. The president is talking about a economic message that resonates with voters. The Campaign Says not perfect, but better. Better than all the other alternatives. You dont have to flip over me but certainly wont flip over the alternatives to me. After this. She simply filed a claim on her usaa app and said. I got this. Usaa insurance is made the way kate needs it easy. She can even pick her payment plan so its easy on her budget and her life. Usaa. What youre made of, were made for. Usaa neil all right. We are getting word right now, courtesy of reuters report, that the National Association of manufacturers might have been the subject of a sniper attack. This was around the time the groups leader, jake timmons, the National Association of manufacturers president , was meeting with President Trump. The alleged chinese hackers reportedly upped their efforts in the days around that meeting and to get an update on the ongoing trade negotiations between the u. S. And china. Now, no word yet on chinese comments about any of these developments but it would dovetail at a time when the talks have turned south on the president and renew the possibility of upping tariffs, and that the chinese might have wanted to know what was going on. Again, this is coming via the nam. No word or comment yet from the white house or chinese. The chinese naturally have denied these sort of accusations in the past. No word yet on whether they think theres a case to be made here. But it all occurs when a trade deal between our two countries is still, you know, eagerly anticipated but so far, not done. More after this. Is that ireland. 1953 . How did you know . Mom. That was taken at the farm. It was in this small little village. In connemara . Right connemara it is. Honestly, we went there oh, oh look at that look at that. Now you can, with shipsticks. Com no more lugging your clubs through the airport or risk having your clubs lost or damaged by the airlines. Sending your own clubs ahead with shipsticks. Com makes it fast easy to get to your golf destination. With just a few clicks or a phone call, well pick up and deliver guaranteed, for as low as 39. 99. Shipsticks. Com saves you time and money. Make it simple. Make it ship sticks. Neil you know, impeachment is always in the eyes of the beholder. If you are republican you think the hearings are a waste of time. If youre a democrat you think we are in the middle of a constitutional crisis and we have to haul the president out on his keyster, sooner the better. But if you are the markets, you are kind of shrugging your shoulders and saying next. Now we are in the phase of the hearings where the republicans are getting to ask all the questions but so far, no body blows here either being delivered or received. Hillary vaughn on capitol hill with the highlights thus far an. Hey, hillary. Reporter right out the gate, republicans challenged chairman adam schiff over why the whistleblower had not been subpoenaed and why the whistleblower has not been presented to republicans and democrats at least in a closed door deposition so that both sides have the opportunity to ask the person questions that started this whole controversy. Make a motion we actually subpoena the whistleblower for a closed door secret deposition and i would prefer that rather than it be your single decision it wont be my single decision. You are the only member who knows who that individual is and your staff is the only staff of any member of congress that has had a chance to talk with that individual. We would like that opportunity. Thats a false statement. I do not know the identity of the whistleblower. Reporter we also heard from kent and taylor, george kent and ambassador bill taylor today. Kent saying that it is not out of the ordinary for military aid or funds to have conditions placed on it, but usually congress and the white house work out those conditions together. We also heard from ambassador taylor explain many conversations that he had with Eu Ambassador Gordon Sondland where he details a lot of information that he received from sondland related to the president s intentions behind stalling or slowwalking this aid to ukraine, but the big question here, neil, is when will this committee hear from sondland which will happen next week, because a lot of taylors testimony, a lot of the smoking guns that democrats have been latching on to, has been testimony or secondhand testimony that taylor has given of information that sondland has told him about the president s intentions, so republicans, you heard from mark meadows moments ago who came here to talk with us and he says that he wants to see sondland show up and testify about what taylor is saying sondland told him. Neil . Neil thank you very much. Good wrapup where we stand so far. I mentioned the markets here, and how many times i say this, but it does bear repeating. These guys are not really red or blue. When it comes to the markets and it comes to investments, they are green. They are about making money. They dont anything to get in the way of that. With this president they have been making money and they dont want anything to get in the way of that. Probably much more focused on the testimony of fed president Jerome Powell who seemed to indicate steady as she goes after three rate cuts, hes going to kind of monitor things from here on out. Take a look. Anticipate raising the current fed rate through the next year . No, i wouldnt say that at all. What we have said, what i have said here, i will go right to the actual language, is that we see the current stance of Monetary Policy as likely to remain appropriate as long as incoming information about the economy remains broadly consistent with our outlook of moderate growth, a strong labor market and inflation near our 2 objecti objective. Thats a very datadependent statement. We do think Monetary Policy is in a good place. But we will be watching very carefully incoming data. Neil all right. What he seems to be standing, if things stand as they are, no change in policy here, certainly no imminent rate hikes. Expectations for a december rate cut have been reduced to less than 4 right now by the people who bet money on this sort of stuff. Lets get the read from Edward Lawrence and david dietze. Edward, is he saying no change in policy any time soon . Hes saying no change in policy any time soon but with the caveat there, hes watching the Economic Data that comes in and if that data comes in a little bit weaker than they thought, there might be some action there. So hes not ruling out a rate cut but hes saying he just doesnt see it right now, in this moment. You know, chairman powell outlined how Consumer Spending is just driving this economy and he says he doesnt see that stopping. He says theres low inflation but its close to their 2 target so again, no accommodation, further accommodation needed for that inflation. Thats really where they have been cutting, because of the inflation. Neil you know, david, the Immediate Reaction certainly of the markets was very favorable. They seem to be ignoring the impeachment hearings. Maybe that can change, you know, if a bombshell announcement, i didnt see one, but much more focused on what Jerome Powell was saying. What do you think of that . Well, i think thats right because of course, changes in Interest Rate policy can affect peoples pocketbooks in terms of how much they are paying for mortgages or to borrow money for big ticket items. I think this is in some ways a little bit more important. I think the market saw everything kind of favorably because at the end of the day, i thought mr. Powell suggested that the bar for raising rates was a little bit higher than the bar for lowering rates. Mr. Powell talked about noteworthy concerns including slowing Global Economy, volatile trade policy and inflation thats just not as high as they want it to be. Neil he didnt talk about headwinds per se but he did indicate right now that trade was an open question and whats happening abroad is something that cant be ignored, that is, with the negative Interest Rates throughout some key economies in europe. Doesnt seem to intimate that thats a threat for us any time soon, but what did you make, he was dancing on the head of a pin there. Absolutely. So he refused to take the bait and to weigh in on what trade policy should be. I think he kept a very appropriate stance, saying we have to deal with the economy as we find it and theres no question about it to the extent there are trade policy volatility, that can affect the strength of the overall Global Economy and its his job to adjust Interest Rates if ultimately theres material deterioration as a result. Neil he tried to eschew any talk of politics to weigh in on any of the back and forth with the president. The president only yesterday blaming the Federal Reserve for the sudden slowdown in growth. We are seeing for his part, you know, mr. Powell was saying, you know, a lot of that owes to the trade situation and the questions thats raising. That was the extent of it, though. Thats by design, isnt it . Yeah. He wants to keep that independence. They have that buffer zone of independence, the Federal Reserve enjoys here. Now, he did not take the bait, did not get sucked into any of the comments from the president , who made also senator ted cruz tried to get him into the 2020 election. He said he would decline to get into that election. Senator cruz tried to ask him about some of the proposals of raising taxes on the wealthiest of americans or some other proposals which would raise taxes for everybody, and the chairman just simply said im not going to get pulled into the 2020 election. So hes not commenting on that. He did, however, say that the trade, the global uncertainty is weighing on the business investment. He said its also affecting possibly supply chains as companies figure out what their next move is in terms of where the investment dollars go. Right now he says chinas a big deal. Related to that uncertainty. But he wouldnt get sucked into the trade policy itself. Neil s the kind neil its kind of interesting, he did seem to agree, i think senator cotton raised it, how honest the chinese are, would they be good on delivering on their commitments on the finished trade deal or otherwise, but he did seem to question, as did senator cotton, even Economic Data we get out of that country. Well, thats right. It was sort of a mixed message there. He threw a bone to the chinese talking about their honesty but i think that helped underscore how difficult his job is and the committee to assess Global Economic conditions when the data you are working with, particularly out of the second largest economy on the face of the earth, is questionable at times. Neil you know, Edward Lawrence, he did take up a political matter to a degree by commenting on whats clearly a democratic effort to squelch fracking in this country. While he wouldnt comment on tax proposals and the wealth tax the likes of Elizabeth Warren has championed, he did address the fracking issue. That surprised me. Yeah, but the question was phrased, former fed chairman ben bernanke said this sparked the u. S. Energy independence so in that framework, he said well, okay, i do agree that the fracking, the shale industry, the rise up thats happened, has created the independence, he said in 50 years, he never thought the u. S. Would be Energy Independent as they are today. He said that if that shale industry went away, that would be bad for the industry, for the energy industry. But again, with the framework of talking about Ben Bernankes comments, not the comments from any other candidate. Neil as the impeachment whole drama, has it affected your Market Strategy . What do you do . Certainly its not a positive, neil. I mean, youve got a lot of different moving pieces here because at the same time, that weighs on the president , youve got additional people coming into the democratic race. I think the other issue is that we are still looking at the polls in light of the impeachment proceedings. As long as the polls seem to hold firm, i think people are putting aside the impeachment a little bit. If those polls of popular opinion really start to shift, i think the market could shift at that point also. Neil thank you both very, very much. To both of these gentlemens points, if the markets are worried, they have a funny way of showing it. All are practically at records if they hold this by the end of the day. Dow, s p 500 and nasdaq buoyed by good economic news, at least optimism on the trade front and totally ignoring whats happening on the impeachment front. That was the same backdrop, if you recall, some 20 years ago when they were going after bill clinton and trying to impeach him. But one thing that helped him was a very Strong Economy and certainly a very strong stock market. The same stuff thats benefiting this president. A guy who was very involved in that last impeachment process, bob barr, on whether theres anything to connect now, after this. Obvious. Sometimes, they just drop in. Cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. We enable you to reach Global Markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. Cme group how the world advances. Neil you know, todays impeachment hearing is actually just the start. There is one more day this week on friday, democrats then announcing eight new witnesses slated for next weeks public impeachment hearings. To former house manager during the clinton impeachment trial, bob barr. Congressman, always good to have you. Thank you for taking the time. Thank you. Pleasure to be with you, neil. Neil can you help me with this . You are a good student of history besides the hearings you were handling then versus whats starting right now . Back then, it was a very substantive hearing that the American People could understand. You had criminal charges pending or leveled against a sitting president that were very clear, laid out when it came to the congress and we on the Judiciary Committee, not the intelligence committee, the Judiciary Committee, had witnesses that explained what those charges were, explained how they were prosecuted against individuals and how mr. Clinton had perjured himself and obstructed justice. We had ken starr who presented a very clear case to the American People. It was interesting, it was clear and it was factbased. What theyre doing today is none of the above. They are taking a very dry subject that is something to do with foreign aid to a country that most people couldnt find on a map if you paid them, and they are trying to basically make a baloney sandwich taste like roast beef and its very difficult to do that because theres really very little substance there. Neil baloney does not taste like roast beef. Congressman, one thing im curious, did you know at the time your hearings started that bill clinton had indeed perjured himself . Correct. When ken starr sent his report to the house of representatives in september of 1998, as he was required by law to do, he already had laid out a vast trove of information and very clear evidence that the president had, in fact, perjured himself, that is, lied under oath in an official judicial proceeding. Our job on the Judiciary Committee was to explain how to the American People those type of charges had already been used against average americans and that this person, the president of the United States, therefore, should not be allowed to be held to a different standard, that is to get away with perjuring himself. Then in addition, we showed through very clear and convincing evidence that the president had convinced others to do things to hide their role in the coverup. Neil all right. In the end, did you have a feeling, though, when this was going on, that the economy was strong, markets were very strong, a lot of people concluded bill clinton lied about an affair with an intern, they didnt like it but they didnt find it worthy enough to heave him out of office. Was it your sense thats where it was going, he would be impeached in the house but it wouldnt go anywhere in the senate . It became clear to us very early on in the impeachment proceedings in the house, even before we got over to the senate, that the senators, including a lot of republicans, although they didnt like mr. Clinton and they believed that he had, in fact, done what he was accused of doing in the house, they simply didnt want to deal with it. So they crafted, for example, a r present a case. So the answer to your question is yes. We knew that there was no chance in reality that he would be removed from office, but we also felt it was extremely important to show the American People that the standard for the president of the United States is such that he should not be allowed to perjure himself and to obstruct justice and just skate free. Neil the reason why i mention it, a number of democrats are aware certainly in the house that they might be on a foolhardy mission, that it might not go beyond the house, but they are determined as a group and i could be misreading this, to impeach him. But that it doesnt go much further. Do you think thats the case . I do think thats the case. I think thats one of the reasons why we see such a convoluted and inconsistent process that Speaker Pelosi has allowed to go forward. They started out as you recall a couple months ago in the Judiciary Committee where impeachment should be, should lie. That didnt turn out too well. Then they decided to go with mr. Schiff and so far, that has not turned out very well in the secret hearings and with the socalled whistleblower out there unknown to virtually the entire country. So theyre sort of making it up as they go along but they boxed themselves in so they have to do something. They dont want to do it during the actual Election Year of 2020, to be accused of doing it for election purposes, so they are trying to rush this thing through. They know it really isnt going to go anywhere and i suspect that a lot of them really wish they hadnt started it in the first place. Neil you know, a lot of people have been harkening back to how republicans handled that impeachment process, yourself included, versus the way democrats are handling it right now and despite a lot of republicans complaining right now about the process, and that they cant intervene and talk to these same people at least prior to this, democrats always come back, congressman and say well, this is how republicans handled the last impeachment. Is that true . Its not true at all. Both the impeachment inquiry that the house of representatives passed in giving the impeachment matter to the Judiciary Committee was very clear, it was very fair, and the rules that the Judiciary Committee operated under made it very clear, unlike the current rules that the House Intelligence Committee is operating under, that both sides had equal access to witnesses and if either side had a problem, it could be overridden by a majority vote of the committee but it was a far more transparent and fair process than what theyre doing now. Neil how were your relations with bill clinton after impeachment . I dont know that i ever really had anything to do with him after impeachment. Neil is that right. Before the impeachment, he was as everybody who has met him always said, very gregarious, very charismatic individual. Neil congressman, always a pleasure. Thanks for joining us. Thanks, neil. Neil all right. Now you have Hillary Clinton apparently teasing a run for president. You had Duval Patrick, former massachusetts governor, hinting at a run for president. You know about Michael Bloomberg. All of these candidates suddenly looking to throw their hats in the ring because they dont like the candidates in the ring. They just forgot about one guy. Hes rising above all of that. Mayor pete. Yeah. After this. the enchanted disney fine jewelry collection. With exclusive bridal styles at zales, the diamond store. Theres a company thats talked than me jd power. People 448,134 to be exact. They answered 410 questions in 8 categories about vehicle quality. And when they were done, chevy earned more j. D. Power quality awards across cars, trucks and suvs than any other brand over the last four years. So on behalf of chevrolet, i want to say thank you, real people. Youre welcome. Were gonna need a bigger room. Now you can, with shipsticks. Com no more lugging your clubs through the airport or risk having your clubs lost or damaged by the airlines. Sending your own clubs ahead with shipsticks. Com makes it fast easy to get to your golf destination. With just a few clicks or a phone call, well pick up and deliver your clubs ontime, guaranteed, for as low as 39. 99. Shipsticks. Com saves you time and money. Make it simple. Make it ship sticks. Are Critical Skills for scientists at 3m. One of the products i helped develop was a softer, more secure diaper closure. As a mom, i knew it had to work. There were babies involved. And they werent saying much. I envisioned what its like for babies to have diapers around them. Thats what we do at 3m, we listen to people, even those who dont have a voice. At the end of the day, we are people helping people. Neil all right. This was a meeting of a Bipartisan Group from congress did not want to see happening. The president meeting with his turkish counterpart, president erdogan, at the white house, saying the ceasefire is holding up very, very well and the two remain very, very good friends. Blake burman with the latest on all of that, hey, blake. Reporter what a day we have going on here in washington, d. C. Whats going on up on the hill, busy one over here at the white house as President Trump right now is in the middle of about four hours or so worth of meetings with the turkish president , erdogan. The way the schedule breaks out, they already met in the oval office. There will be a bilateral meeting, working lunch, you mentioned congress, the turkish president is expected to meet with some members of the senate as well, then after that, we are going to get a press conference between the two leaders a couple hours from now. This will be the first facetoface meeting between the two since that october 6th phone call which led to President Trump pulling u. S. Forces from northeastern syria and then the turkish incursion that followed. Since then, President Trump threatened sanctions, a ceasefire came about and many questions have sprung about the u. S. Future in that area, and what it means for the fight against isis. Now, during rather brief comments just after erdogans arrival, President Trump doing much of the talking, the president made a point to say that the current arrangement he believes will not lead to isis Controlling Oil in the region. Listen. Were keeping the oil. We have the oil. The oil is secure. We left troops behind only for the oil. Reporter by the way, also worth noting that in that roughly sixminute exchange there in the oval, one of the reporters who was inside just alerted me that when all of the media was ushered out, they were able to sneak in a question about eu auto tariffs. Its a completely different topic but noteworthy nonetheless because the president told that reporter he has been briefed on the matter and that a decision is quote, coming very soon. As you know, the president has to have a decision here within the next if not handful of hours, certainly next couple of days. Neil . Neil the president , by the way, has been saying that hes not been focused on the hearings, doesnt intend to watch them, but will have more opportunities obviously on friday, next week. What are you hearing on that front . Reporter thats the line we have been getting from the white house. The press secretary Stephanie Grisham today has made it a point to note that on a couple different occasions, saying the president hasnt been watching, that he has meetings. When the president was asked about it as well, he also said that he hadnt been watching, that he has been busy. It also allows the president and this white house to sort of build up the argument that they can do whatever they want to do up on capitol hill. Back over here at the white house, the president is tackling some serious issues. Its part of what you will hear from this white house over the upcoming days and weeks, saying that there are serious issues that need to be tackled and they will make the case that the president is doing it and whats going on up at the hill is a waste of time. Neil all right. Thank you very much, blake burman at the white house. The president has been touting the Strong Economy, but wouldnt it be a kick if its not the Strong Economy, stupid, that things have changed from the days when bill clinton and his campaign were first running for president , argued that it was. Maybe not. After this. So what are you working on . Im searching for info on options trading, and look, it feels like im just wasting time. Wasted time is wasted opportunity. Exactly. Thats why Td Ameritrade designed a firstofitskind, personalized education center. See, you just oh, this is easy. Yeah, and thats oh, just what i need. Courses on options trading, webcasts, tutorials. Yeah. Their awardwinning content is tailored to fit your investing goals and interests. And it learns with you, so as you become smarter, so do its recommendations. So its like my streaming service. Well exactly. Well except now, youre binge learning. Oh, i like that. Thank you, i just came up with that. Youre funny. Learn fast with the Td Ameritrade education center. Call 8662851934 or visit tdameritrade. Com learn. Get started today, and for a limited time, get up to 800 when you open and fund an account. Thats 8662851934, or tdameritrade. Com learn. Beyond the routine checkups. Beyond the notsoroutine cases. Comcast business is helping doctors provide care in whole new ways. All working with a new generation of technologies powered by our gigspeed network. Because beyond technology. There is human ingenuity. Every day, comcast business is helping businesses go beyond the expected. To do the extraordinary. Take your business beyond. Neil all right. Lets take a look at disney right now. Its up better than six bucks, little bit more than close to 4. 5 . Its contributing mightily, about twothirds of the dows advance in general. This on word that with all the technical snafus and problems yesterday getting disney pluss new streaming service up and running, they did manage to get ten Million People to sign up. Imagine what they would have done if they hadnt encountered any of that. We got word today things are going more smoothly but bottom line, that is not a bad launch, just coming right out the gate, and the markets are responding accordingly. Meanwhile, President Trump hopes to cash in on a Strong Economy ahead of the 2020 election, but if the wall street journal chief economics commentator is right, it isnt just the economy, stupid. He joins me right now. You know, greg, i found that article, your column, very intriguing. You say that for some voting blocs, noneconomic issues such as immigration, Race Relations and mr. Trump himself, superseded economic concerns in determining their vote. You go on to say after the serious recession or spectacular boom, the economy may have little bearing on how americans vote next year. If true, that would be the first election at least in my memory, certainly the postworld war ii environment, in which that was the case. Yeah. Now, the economy has always been a factor but never the driving factor. Go back to 2000, al gore should have actually had a pretty good path to the white house given how well the economy had been doing under a democrat, but as you know, he narrowly lost in the Electoral College. Its not without precedent. But what is without precedent is that all the Economic Indicators that should be pointing to higher president ial approval right now are not doing it. This was the case under barack obama as well. We have just become a very polarized country. Rather than let the economys condition tell us what we think of our president , its the opposite. What we think of our president is telling us what we think about the economy. In that kind of a polarized environment, the facts on the ground about how the economy is doing really well or really badly, they just dont matter as much. Neil but you know, you talk about the moodys Analytics Survey that talk about the environment, particularly in battleground states which are far more crucial than looking at National Polls, where that sentiment and the perception mattered. How is it going this goround . Well, i mean, thats another good question. So those models should have predicted Hillary Clinton would win but they didnt anticipate that turnout would hurt her in these midwest states like wisconsin, michigan and pennsylvania, and that it would help President Trump. If you look carefully at the attitudes of those sort of trump sorry, obama to trump voters, who basically moved those states from the blue to red column, a lot of them werent motivated primarily by how well they felt their Economic Situation was. They were motivated by issues of cultural identity, of immigration, maybe just a feeling they were looked down upon by democrats, and so even though we see some data that suggests those economies, especially their manufacturing sectors are struggling, that might not necessarily hurt trump in 2020. Neil this is just my thing, goes beyond your column, do you think the economy, the fact its been going on under this president , but whats happened through the obama years, a young generation of americans only know a sdwrechteady as she goes recovery, they have distant memories from their parents or whathave you about the meltdown, how they were affected by ut by and large, people have gotten used to good times. Maybe theres something to that. As good as things are with an Unemployment Rate below 4 , if you have always only known low unemployment, you are not impressed. We know over time when people are asked to rank the problems most important to the country, they only rank the economy as the most important when the economy is doing really badly. So in some sense, the fact that they dont seem to care a lot about economics now is actually a credit to how well the economy is running. Whether or not you give trump credit for that, that does reflect well on his presidency. It just may not be enough on by itself to carry the election next year. Neil you mentioned the moodys analytics thing. Their next prediction is the president wins as he did last time in the electoral vote, maybe by a bigger amount, not in the popular vote, and maybe by more of a gap. What do you think of that . Youre right. Also, the other model is saying the same thing. If you lo ok at conventional economic forecasts, they say trump should win. But mark zandi told me they have to make certain assumptions about turnout and its getting really hard to forecast. Like the turnout to the midterms last year were they broke all the records. It was more like a president ial Election Year. Its impossible, at least, look, this is way beyond my pay grade but even for the experts, its very difficult to predict exactly how turnout trends are going to play, whether they are good for democrats or republicans, whether they matter in certain states but not others. Neil do you think the markets, the president loves to keep quoting how well they have been doing, they have been doing very very well, does that resonate as a political issue . Im going way beyond your column, my friend. If you will indulge me. That it is politically appealing say to the broader population. I think it does, in the sense that look, you and i have been covering Business News for long enough to know that the people in our circles who are not obsessed with Financial News only start to notice the economy when the stock market is tanking. So when you have am i right . So the stock market tends to when you have a really good stock market, i think thats a very high visibility sign that the average person can fasten on to to say hey, things are good. Conversely, if the stock market is tanking, a lot of people are going to say hm, maybe thats not so good. In fact, mark zandi of moodys says over the last decade or two, theres some evidence the stock market does seem to have some influence on voter perceptions. Neil i do remember between senator john mccain and barack obama, they were running even in the polls, the meltdown hit and then there was about a six to eight point gap and that never narrowed. You know . Yes. I think this is important. When i say the economy is less important to the election, im not saying its not important at all. If the economy truly tanks like in 2008 which i should say not i or any economist expects, yes, that would be clearly bad for the president. Conversely, if the stock market goes up 50 , thats got to be good for his election prospects. What im talking about is a scenario somewhere in the normal range between 1 and 3 is probably going to be other things that matter more. Neil you have an incredible mind, young man. Great gift, great writer, great thinker. Wall street journal chief economics commentator. The war on the wealthy, how is that going to pan out . Because many of the wealthy on wall street, they are getting antsy. Driverless cars, or trips to mars. No commission. Delivery drones, or the latest phones. No commission. No matter what you trade, at fidelity youll pay no commission for online u. S. Equity trades. I am royalty of racing, i am alfa romeo. Neil Country Musics biggest awards show taking over nashville. Some of the biggest names in the busine business. Jackie deangelis in the middle of it allie at john richs restaurant. Hey, jackie. Reporter good afternoon. The show is tonight, not far from where i am, and the momentum is building on the streets, the hustle and bustle. People are so excited for the awards tonight. Carrie underwood will be the host. Whats interesting is the popularity of Country Music and loyalty of the fans. Streams of Country Music downloads, that kind of thing, up 46 year over year. Youve got a lot of artists who are taking advantage of that growth and they are going from behind the microphone, if you will, expanding their brand into all kinds of businesses. Where i am, this is broadway, this is restaurant row. I did a little looksee here across the street, weve got kid rocks place, luke bryant has a place, Blake Shelton has one, alan jackson has one as well. I had an opportunity because john rich swung by to talk to us, to ask him what it means not just to be a Country Music singer, with all of his success, but to be a businessman. Listen. I think artists that spend time learning the business end of their music generally have longer careers because you understand it better. Reporter i talked to him afterwards about how much heart it takes to be able to be authentic and think about product lines that represent the star themselves, so for john, its not just his bar but its also his brand of whiskey. For big kenny, who we had a chance to talk to, its his peanuts. A lot of these stars are branching out with gyms, other kinds of restaurants, clothing lines, cooking lines, that kind of thing. So Country Music is more than just this Niche National thing. Its turning into sort of a national thing across the country, even a global thing. Neil you can understand their words, if you think about it. Whether you like it or you dont, you understand the lines and the lyrics. All right. Jackie, thank you very much. Good stuff. Maybe an homage to country singers, this is citibanks way of saying maybe not. This war on wall street and wealth is something that worries folks at citibank and the wealthy in general, were told. Its putting a lot of pressure on corporations from a lot of top candidates and a lot of those corporations dont like what theyre hearing from some of the top candidates. To making money host charles payne. What do you think, charles . Charles no doubt on wall street, youve got to be very nervous because we know that Elizabeth Warren has come right out and declared war on wall street, to the same degree sanders has as well, but i dont think any of the Democratic Candidates are really saying hey, we will take it easy, we will handle these folks with kid gloves. I think the general perception is they still havent paid a price for the great recession, for their role in the great recession, and you know, no one can really think of anyone that went to prison from wall streets perspective, they may throw Bernie Madoff out there but in the same breath say he wasnt really wall street, right . So theres a lot of animosity that continues to linger to this day. Neil you know, i agree with everything there. But heres where i draw a distinction. When we look back at this campaign year, we might look back to Elizabeth Warren sort of jumping the shark on this wealth tax or go a little far, where even people who arent very rich start saying whoa, this was the thing that triggered so many, including Hillary Clinton now, Duval Patrick, former massachusetts governor, from entertaining runs of their own, because they dont like the direction that seems to imply the party is going. What do you make of that . Charles i think youre right there, but thats going to be the fight. Thats the fight we are witnessing right now. Warren and sanders on one side, perhaps establishment candidates parachuting in, but again, think about this, though. These are folks from the outside looking in. These are wall street candidates. Hillary clinton, duval are wall street candidates that would be parachuting in, sensing an opportunity to sort of save the party, if you will. I dont know. I think that ship has sailed this time around. Neil another thing, too, you always look at the numbers, youre very good at that, but i think that all of these other candidates who are teasing or looking to get in the race are doing the math and thinking that no one has a clear shot at getting the delegates necessary on a first ballot, the first vote, and then its open season. What do you think . Charles its open season, and thats when you get the super delegates that have a lot more weight now. Before they had the weight in the front end of this thing, which made it prohibitively unfair to Bernie Sanders. Now they have made a few adjustments but they do have some sort of brokered convention, its going to be the super delegates and folks like Hillary Clinton or Duval Patrick with very powerful ties to wall street and d. C. Who know how to work the system. Even Michael Bloomberg thinks thats maybe where he has an opening. You are absolutely right. No one is taking off. They are all sort of deadlocked. You have mayor pete coming up from behind so its four candidates deadlocked. None of them seizing this thing just yet. Neil you are quite right. Its in the second ballot, not the first, that those super delegates come into play. Then its jump ball. Charles its jump ball. Thats when you are going to get a whole lot of folks saying its unfair and thats when the establishment really will get to flex its muscle. Maybe not reflecting the will of the people, but maybe also being able to put in their candidate. Neil that dog dont hunt. Charles all hat, no cattle. Yeah. Neil whatever the analogy is. Thank you, my friend. See you in about 12 minutes. Meantime, Hillary Clinton as we said is teasing, saying that many, many, many people are asking her to run. Still, there are a lot of people, many, many people who do not want her to run. Who is she talking to . After this. Imagine traveling hasslefree with your golf clubs. Now you can, with shipsticks. Com no more lugging your clubs through the airport or risk having your clubs lost or damaged by the airlines. Sending your own clubs ahead with shipsticks. Com makes it fast easy to get to your golf destination. With just a few clicks or a phone call, well pick up and deliver your clubs ontime, guaranteed, for as low as 39. 99. Shipsticks. Com saves you time and money. Make it simple. Make it ship sticks. Shipsticks. Com saves you time and money. 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Were looking to close not only at a high but an alltime high intraday, if you include that, with the dow up about 101 points. Charlie brady, who follows this stuff very closely, a bit too closely, the guy is so scary smart, but he points out right now disney is a big reason why, with that better than seven and a half buck advance in the stock, it is contributing more than half of its gain, little more than 50 points of the 100 point gain we are looking at thus far. Disney buoyed by the news that with all the problems they had yesterday getting people to sign up and people being frozen out and all of that, more than ten million signed up for the new disney plus streaming service. They say things have stabilized and improved even today so expect that number to get even bigger for the mouse house. That mouse house is leading to a bull run. Okay. In the meantime, Hillary Clinton declining to rule out a future president ial campaign. Take a look. I will certainly tell you im under enormous pressure from many, many, many people to think about it, but as of this moment, sitting here, in this studio talking to you, that is absolutely not in my plans. Neil all right. Axios political reporter alexa mccammon, what do you think of this . Well, what im hearing from people close to her, as you just played in that clip, is that the chances of her getting into the race are between zero and unlikely but its not zero. While she says its not a plan for her right now in the cards, shes certainly thinking about it and hearing about it from a lot of people. I think she and others are looking at the way that the democratic primary field has been shaping up so far. Shes looking at the fact that the top three frontrunners nationally are all of similar age to her so while there was a conversation at the start of the cycle about a generational argument and democrats maybe wanting somebody younger, thats just not necessarily the case, at least in polling so far. And we are also seeing how this election is shaping up to be a lot about health care, and Hillary Clinton is someone who knows a thing or two about health care. Maybe shes having revisionist thinking or shes watching wistfully as people close to her describe the way shes watching this race. I wouldnt take it off the table completely even though she said its not in the plans right now. Neil all right. Now, a lot of that seems to be built on the prospect that they cant agree on a nominee on the first ballot. There may still be too many in the race or divided, that it has to run to another ballot and its in the second ballot that the socalled super delegates that propelled Hillary Clinton over the top last goround would essentially play that kind of a king or queen maker role this goround. What do you think of that . As you mentioned, super delegates are someone who certainly helped Hillary Clintons chances in the 2016 election. The field is just simply too large at this point in the cycle. It might be getting even bigger without Hillary Clintons entrance or potential entrance into the race. We are hearing folks like Michael Bloomberg, Duval Patrick who are reconsidering entering the race. Its early in the cycle, its late to be considering to jump in. All that is to say that when the convention finally happens next summer, we have a long ways to go until we really know the role of the super delegates. What we do know is the Democratic National committee has already reduced the role of super delegates for this cycle. So while they helped someone like Hillary Clinton in 2016, that will totally change the dynamic of who is helped and who is hurt by the super delegates in 2020. Neil you know, history shows that the person who lost, you know, the electoral vote but won the popular vote, in three out of four of those occasions, came back. The only exception being al gore. Now, im just wondering whether Hillary Clinton quietly sends out that message to a lot of people, you know the argument among some of the rabid, she was robbed, she was robbed, this is the system we have, the electoral vote winner is the winner, but that that is sort of building up this force behind her that, you know, she should be given another shot, another chance. How big a view is that held within the Democratic Party . You know whats the striking thing that ive noticed among democrats, even this morning, i was at a briefing with the Democratic Group called priorities usa, which works in battleground states, among others, to help democrats up and down the iticket, but you cant be in a room full of democrats or talking to democratic voters without hearing the way in which they fully recognize that the election is an Electoral College election. They dont think its a National Election to be won by the popular vote. Thats a really striking difference that we have seen among democratic voters and candidates and politicos alike, whereas in 2016, leading up to that election, we werent having this conversation as a country, and democrats werent having that conversation among themselves. Now, you cannot be in a room with democrats without them really hammering this idea that they need to win the Electoral College because they know theres a very real possibility that the democratic candidate could win the popular vote by a larger majority than Hillary Clinton won by in 2016, and still lose the Electoral College vote by even more than they lost in 2016. Neil then theres mayor pete, who might be quietly just gaining as he has apparently in iowa, one poll does not a trend make, but what do you think of that . Well, i think that the point you just made is important. One poll does not a trend make but we have seen several iowa polls specifically in the last two weeks that have shown mayor pete rising to frontrunner status. The most recent one, of course, has him at the top of the pack. We have to look at the margin of error in these polls which is a little over four percentage points. But what matters is this trend upwards. In the same way we have seen senator Elizabeth Warren consistently rise to the top of National Polls throughout the primary, we are now seeing mayor pete be the only other candidate who is really changing an otherwise stagnant primary race by being someone who is surging to the top in iowa. Neil and very very young. Thank you very, very much. We will follow it closely. The dow up more than 106 points. Easily a record. I knew about the tremors. But when i started seeing things, i didnt know what was happening. So i kept it in. He started believing things that werent true. I knew something was wrong. But i didnt say a word. During the course of their disease around 50 of people with parkinsons may experience hallucinations or delusions. But now, doctors are prescribing nuplazid. The only fda approved medicine. Proven to significantly reduce hallucinations and delusions related to parkinsons. Dont take nuplazid if you are allergic to its ingredients. Nuplazid can increase the risk of death in elderly people with dementiarelated psychosis and is not for treating symptoms unrelated to parkinsons disease. Nuplazid can cause changes in heart rhythm and should not be taken if you have certain abnormal heart rhythms or take other drugs that are known to cause changes in heart rhythm. Tell your doctor about any changes in medicines youre taking. The most common side effects are swelling of the arms and legs and confusion. We spoke up and it made all the difference. Ask your parkinsons specialist about nuplazid. Neil rumor has it, no surprise that adeles music helped benefit scientists in brazil, found listening to her music can reduce stress to keep peoples heart healthy. Ive been telling you this for years. It is up to you. Rumors the chinese may not commit to foreign purchases is hurting the dow. Well see. To charles payne. Charles we will see. Thank you very much, neil. Fast nating information every time you hand it off. Neil anything i can do. Charles im charles payne. This is making money. Indices returning to their winning ways. You know what . A calm, cool collected jay powell reassuring investors as he testified before congress, giving a positive outlook mostly on the u. S. Economy ahead of next months rate decision. Take a listen. Looking ahead my colleagues and i see a sustained expansion of economic activity. Charles americans getting first chance to hear from impeachment