President made that they initiated talks over the phone to resume talks and soon. Chinese saying it her happened. The editor of the global times there. Remember this tabloid essentially run by the peoples official newspaper of chinas communist party, ruling party, it is reporting that this never happened. So either the president is misrepresenting it or the chinese are but now everyone is thinking what were we running off to the races for . Were on top of that. Were on top of the Johnson Johnson verdict could pave way for more paiutes. The idea there has been a a reprieve for thec pharmaceuticl industry, not so fast. Thank you, for connell mcshane, for filling ablably, in fact too ably in my absence. Blake burman at white house. It could have been worse. Could have been blake. Fortunately he is safely ensconced there. Blake being everything old is new again or new is old again. Same type of back and forth on trade that pivots the markets. What is the deal . Reporter were get being two very different versions, neil. One from the president and white house and u. S. Officials as to the phone calls. Were getting completely difficult version from government officials in china who are giving their own side of everything. Heres what he can tell you. The white house at this moment, neil, making, having calls and discussions earlier today, the white house very firmly standing by the comments that President Trump made yesterday in france, saying that these calls did indeed occur. Heres the timeline with everything. At least in the last handful of days or so. There were deputy level talks last week between the u. S. And china. That much we very clearly know. However, the president also said, fast forward a few days after that, in france yesterday, when he was at the g7, china called twice over the weekend. They want to get back to the negotiating tables. Chinas Foreign Ministry, a spokesperson for the Foreign Ministry said hoursc after tha, not true. They had quote, not heard of this situation. Hours after that there was News Conference with President Trump at the g7. He was pressed firmly on this. The president said there were calls over the last 24 to 48 hours. Quote, we had many calls, not just one. Since then china has again denied that there were calls between the u. S. And china over the weekend. Here is what the foreign say rey the u. S. Further increased tax rate on chinas exports to the United States. This kind of extreme pressure is purely harmful and not constructive. Neil, one thing we should note in all of this, if there were indeed calls between the u. S. And china as the United States says there were, we do not have any sort of detail as what kind of level these calls were and who from the u. S. Side might have been on them, might have been taking place in these calls. Two very different versions, neil. Neil someone aint telling the truth. I dont know who it is but it is not jibing here. Were concentrating on one of this, this is one of the reasons for the runup yesterday largely on optimism there was too much crepe hanging about the status of these talks. That the chinese wanted to get z it so to speak. It appears that call might never have happened in the first place. It doesnt take away the fact that both sides will meet in september. It calls into question who blinked first, whether that matter or not. Something isnt jibing with these stories. A reminder if we need it, these markets have abusive situation, best i put it, based on prospects for deal with china. Jumping when it looks good. Tumbling when it looks bad. To take it to the president s often inconsistent musings on this subject. Nothing against him, what he is saying, he is ink yanking somebodys chain on all of this. Opinions and views that seem to change by the hour and that is not sitting well with those who trade some of these Big International stocks with apple exposure to that corner of the globe. Lets get the read on all of this with lee spieckerman, Stanford School of business lecturer dave dodson. Dave to you first. What is your take on the importance whether the president got it wrong or not when the chinese making a call . The talks are still on for september so should we leave it at that . I actually think its a pretty big deal, neil f we cant agree whether a phone call took place, how will we possibly get a negotiation or trade agreement together . c think about the things, on friday the president of china is an enemy. On monday he is a great leader. On tuesday were arguing whether or not a phone call was made or not, were so far away from having a trade agreement. This is from the person who is ftavor of trying to level the playing field, making sure that chinas unfair trade practices are put to rest. We made two catastrophic errors. The first one we decided to fight a trade war with everybody all at once, instead of pulling the rest of the countries together, fighting a united front with china. Our beef with china is the same beef other countries have. The second thing erratic behavior with the business community. It is annoying, frustrating, once we get through it, everything will be fine. That is not the real problem, neil. The real problem i see, donald trump is on the verge of losing the support of the business community, not wall street, not the investment world, but the guy who is the supply chain manager at john deere or at home depot who has to make decisions. This is getting very frustrating for the Business Environment because they dont know whether china is an enemy or a great leader or not. Once he loses the support of business, china can wait us out, they know they can make it to november 2020. Neil lee, youre different point of view here but i did want to ask you whether the president risked jumping shark on thisc trying to reexercise e Emergency Powers act during the carter years in 1977, that would Block Companies actions in this case, dealing with china. That is where, to the professors point the president might have alienated his base of business interests who like pretty much Everything Else he has done with tax cuts, regulatory relief, he could be killing that relationship with just that proposal, what do you think . Well, i think first of all President Trumps real base are working people, the workers in those states like wisconsin, pennsylvania, ohio, that had been voting democratic, voted for barack obama, that is his base. Not wall street and these other businesses. American business is very important but i disagree with dave. The issue is not just china. We have a 70 billiondollar goods trade deficit with japan, germany and mexico. 60 to 70 billion, actually even more with mexico. So we cant just unite against china. China is the worst neil its a good thing because he is fighting with everyone, lee. He is fighting with everybody. That is the problem. You want to pick and choose your battles . World is upside down. President trump is correctly said weve been the worlds piggybank. We cannot afford paradigm for hosing American Workers from almost every country in the world unfortunately. So the way to simplify it, i do agree with dave on this, we do need to make it clear what our plan is, where were going. Lets do what we did with pickup trucks in the 1960s. Pickup truck imports. Look whats happened. The three top selling vehicles in the United States are pickup trucks. So theyre very affordable by the middle class. The asian pickup truck manufacturers make their trucks here in the United States, employing thousands of wellpaid workers with full benefits. Making great incomes. That is great for middle class america and American Workers. Lets announce well have a 15 uniform tariff on all imported goods from all countries. Neil stick to reality right now what were dealing with right now. That is reality. Could be reality. Neil but it is not right now. It will be. Neil fessor what i would like to ask you boy, oh, boy. The president is saying right now, professor, right now, xi xinping is a brilliant man. Last week he was sort of like our enemy as list, along with the chairman of the Federal Reserve. Im wondering whether he is imperilling his own chances of success by blowing up his own progress . c i think he is. You think about, lee, you mentioned states like, you know, wisconsin, ohio, you got to get out there and visit them, because soybean farmers are getting slaughtered. It is not just temporary. What is happening as a result of trade war being mishandled, soybean capacity is being expanded in russia, kazakhstan and brazil. That capacity will not go away. The farmers will get decimated. Youre right, lee, that is Donald Trumps base. He is going after them, hurting them permanently. In terms of how he is handling the trade war he needs to send a clear signal to business this is the progression well take. Well escalate it if certain things dont happen. Erratic behavior is frustrating for business. In terms of the 15 across the board tariff, look i agree that jobs have been lost in the United States but we 3 1 2 million. We had this bad habit for almost a generation of blaming our problems on everybody else. The fact is, it is not everybody everbodyss, we have opioid crisis. Not everyones fault education system. We call it rust belt for a reason. Go to china, area above hong kong, shanking high region they invested in infrastructure. Those things make you productive. We cannot tariff our way back to be productive. Excuse me, dave. Neil go ahead, lee. This problem began in the 1980s, early 70s, we allowed japan to dump steel in the u. S. That china took book from japan, put it on steroids. They have been dumping goods into this country. Yes we can tariff our way back to level playing field. Tariffs are enabled us to build our industrial economy for most of our history. Our founding fathers, abraham lincoln, believed strongly in tariffs. Neil lee, you make a very good argument, youre good on that. Do you worry that the president it is simple. Neil it might be but im just telling you the president is all over the map. Every time you come on what youre going to say. I agree. Neil i admire that the president is all over the map on this. He needs to be simple. He knows what he believes lee, would i say this to you. First of all the problem with doing across the board tariffs, what will you tell the Natural Gas Industry in texas when they cant export because theyre not competitive . What will you tell farmers in iowa and we have 800 billion good trade deficit. Let me finish. We have 800 billion goodsc deficit. You cant neil to make that point, youre saying what . Youre leaving off an important number dave. Lee, i will give you a chance. There are sectors of the economy that would be seriously hurt by this across the board tariff. The second thing sectors. Do across the board. Please let me finish, if you do across the board tariff what youre basically saying look we can tweet our way into productivity. The rest of countries will respond. They will respond in kind this static analysis we do a tariff, all of sudden the whole world will come to their knees and surrender to us is not how the real world works. If you want evidence of that, look what weve done for the last two years. We went to china and we tweeted some tariffs and expected they were going to come to their knees. They have responded as has rest of world. That dynamic process happens in trade negotiations. I appreciate that, maybe around lincolns time this would have worked the world is way more complex. Neil i covered it during lincolns time, it didnt work. Lee, quick answer to that. We already picked up 30 billion in additional tariff revenue. If we had a 15 uniform tariff, talk about static analysis, this free trade dribble that has been lapped up by most of the media unfortunately and a lot of Business People is ridiculous. The truth is, that we wouldc gn 3 trillion in government revenue with a 15 tariff neil do you think china is paying that, no, no, lee, do you think china is paying that 30 billion . I think it is attached to the goods and indirectly they are, because first of all a lot of their companies are neil it is not so. I love you dearly. It is not so. Youre double counting. Excuse me one second. Neil neil look at the time. With very to go. Well have more after this. Neil who paid neil please stop. Well have a lot more on this i think we want to get our facts right, everything in order. We will sort this out. There is great deal who is zooming here here. At this time both sides are zooming each other and talking past each other. Apparently calling or not calling each other. We dont trust them. They dont trust us. Incredibly, we are no closer to a trade deal than we were 18 months ago. More after this. You wouldnt accept an incomplete job from any one else. Why accept it from your allergy pills . Flonase relieves your worst symptoms including nasal congestion, which most pills dont. Flonase helps block 6 key inflammatory substances. Most pills only block one. Flonase. Im not really a, i thought wall street guy. Ns. Whats the hesitation . Eh, it just feels too complicated, you know . Well sure, at first, but jj can help you with that. Jj, will you break it down for this gentleman . Hey, ian. You know, at Td Ameritrade, we can walk you through your options trades step by step until youre comfortable. I could be up for that. Thats taking options trading from wall st. To main st. Hey guys, wanna play some pool . Eh, im not really a pool guy. Whats the hesitation . Its just complicated. Stepbystep options trading support from Td Ameritrade neil very quickly before i get to the Johnson Johnson story. I want to make sure were always keeping track of the facts when you hear governments do not, do not pay, you know these tariffs, this notion that the chinese are paying them, they might devalue currency, might absorb the pain, that is passed along to you. This latest wave will prove it on september 1st, when tariffs on 300 million worth of chinese goods, expected to be 15 up from 10 will hit everything from school supplies, sporting goods, some clothing. Some of that will be absorbed by make markets in china for this product. U. S. Distributors and the like, but there is limit how much they can and cannot pass along to you. A government doesnt pay this i know i sound like a broken record, you do, or american entities do. That is just a fact, folks. It might be unpleasant to some. Some people might feel very good about record numbers coming in here, but theyre being paid by you or american interests, that get that out there. I will do so just to make sure we are rigidly complying to fact, not fiction. Opioid verdict against Johnson Johnson could pave the way for other Big Pharmaceuticals getting caught up in this. c fbns Grady Trimble on this. It could have been worse, it wasnt, but it is is itnot great . Reporter it is not good at all for Johnson Johnson or other large pharmaceutical companies. Attorneys for Johnson Johnson are vowing to appeal this they called the ruling yesterday flawed. They denied any wrongdoing throughout the trial. They continued to do in statements and press conferences afterwards. Meanwhile on the other hand lawyers for the state of oklahoma called this a victory t was a landmark decision. As you mentioned the judges ruling was far less than the state was seeking, 572 million, versus 17 billion in damages they wanted. We should point out Johnson Johnsons stock is trading up today as a result. Not quite as high as it was couple hours ago, still 2 up. You see there, most analysts say the company will weather the storm. Lets look at other pharmaceutical companies. Those are down. That is because of another thing you mentioned. All these pending lawsuits. I talked to one analyst who says the judgment against Johnson Johnson was to protrade one years worth of services to combat the opioid problem in oklahoma specifically. That is one year, 572 million. Imagine if the judge decided to make it say ten years, we would be talking about a lot more money here. That is the potential for the future lawsuits down the line. Neil . Neil grady, thank you very much, my friend. c a pretty good Trial Attorney in his own right on what we can expect Going Forward. Eric, i guess markets were kind of relieved maybe this fine wasnt bigger. Some expected 1 1 2 to 2 billion, but it doesnt void the possibility, in fact the probability other suits are coming, right . Yeah. Ultimately this verdict raises as many questions as it answers number one. Johnson johnson was arguing they were only 1 of the market. We dont know whether the judge took into consideration their limited role in the market when the judge was fashioning damages. In order for the judge to discussed damages he had to find that Johnson Johnson was engaged in deseparatetive conduct. And the judge, kind of went out of his way, even though the other manufacturers already settled out, to talk about how Johnson Johnson had been acting in concert with the the other manufacturers into deceiving the public, prescribing physicians, a wealth of others in the marketplace. Neil you know what i had to ask you though, how akin do you think this is, eric, to the investigations into big tobacco, in that they knew they were making their product addictive, they knew they were making same wave of rationale behind the latest suits was the case back then, what do you think . This is a model that was born out of the tobacco litigation of decades ago. We see it in the cigarette movement. Its a notion that state leaders, attorney generals. Clients are stepping up and saying that the legislative and administrate ive branches of government across the board have failed. The people are not being protected. The only way to protect people from these epidemics is use access to the courts. Neil would there be any changes in behavior now that theyre targeting pharmaceuticals companies, that is where the money is . That that will be the strategy Going Forward . We have a model for that. We saw substantial changes of behavior out of tobacco manufacturers. Some was imposed by others as condition of settlement. The opportunity and tools are there that the question is, you know, what are these drug manufacturers going to do because, theyre kind of, theyre in a bizarre situation, because theyre claiming, look, we just put the product out there. We dont do anything more . But there is a big question about a lot of the science that the drug manufacturers fundedc that said that these drugs were safe, that these doctors have been relying upon for years. As that gets exposed, i think it will be interesting to see what happens. Neil eric, thank you very, very much. I appreciate it. Puerto rico looking at another potential hurricane. Were on that after this. So. How are you feeling . On a scale of one to five . One to five . Its more like five million. Theres everything from happy to extremely happy. Theres also angry. Im really angry clive actually, really angry. Thank you. But what if your business could understand what your customers are feeling. And then do something about it. Turn problems into opportunities. Thanks drone. Customers into fanatics change the whole experience. Alright who wants to go again . I do i do i have a really good feeling about this. Im off to college. Im worried about my parents retirement. Dont worry. Voya helps them to and through retirement. Dealing with todays expenses. While helping plan, invest and protect for the future. So theyll be okay . I think theyll be fine. Voya. Helping you to and through retirement. Neil down about 60 points on the dow. We had a lot of yield curve inversions. Like im pushing you away, when i tell you about this, three month, widest since 2007. All of sudden we see a big gap between the two and 10year. You know the drill here. This notion all of sudden, you are getting a lot more for your money putting it overnight. Putting it to three months. Certainly not into many years. Normally that presages worrisome developments like recession. At least since 1955. Not necessarily immediately. It could be 12 to 18 months down the road. Market watcher Jack Mcintyre watching this closely right now. Jack, what do you think. We completed the hat trick, if you will of three key flipped. Are you getting nervous about that . How long does it have to hold to be a worry, what do you think . Yeah. So youre right. So remember, yield curve is nothing more than market sentiment. It is a smart market, bond market. I would listen to it. It is telling us a few things. One that the fed tightened too much last year. Inflation has been low. I, i think it has some recessionary risk, if it stays inverted. But, the little bit of pushback i give you, neil, is that weve got negative yielding bonds 16 trilliondollar equivalent. I dont know how that shapes the yield serve in the u. S. What i look at, i look at Economic Data points to get a better message, are we going into a recession . I want to see, things influence the u. S. Consumer. Weekly jobless claims. I want to see Mortgage Applications for purchases. I want to see erosion of Consumer Confidence before i say recession is imminent. Were not there problem, just cutting interest rates. That will return things almost to normal. What do you think . There was a key potential piece of information aday, bill dudley, former head of the new york fed, he did an editorial, saying hey, maybe the fed shouldnt be cutting rates because the slowdown related to trade, your former topic, that was all trumps doing, and maybe not cut rates f they go down that path, equityings will do very poorly. Neil im looking at all this. Im seeing trade a bugaboo. He ripping Federal Reserve. President s always had fractious relationship with Federal Reserve has been hiking rates. This one has been out in the open for the world to see but were in this pickle precisely because of the trade situation. Depending on the Federal Reserve to patch all wounds, right . Yeah. I agree. The trade is creating uncertainty. Manifesting itself in the business community. Business investment is down. That will probably seep into the consumer. Global growth, china was slowing down even before the trade stuff got escalated. I agree with the president. I think the fed tightened too much last year. They need to pull at that back. Probably to the tune of maybe 75, 100 basis points but youre right the trade tension, escalation of it is not good for the u. S. Economy. Neil thank you my friend, very much. Good catching up with you. Okay. Neil c we follow the campaigns here, but on fox business we follow them a little bit differently than other folks. We follow the money and when you get to that we follow the crowds which tends to get the money. Well explain. Former Vice President and rising democratic star, Elizabeth Warren, they are very revealing stories, focus on the crowds. Well tell but the money. Your business is up and running, but is it going beyond fast . Comcast business gives you high speed internet. We also have Solutions Like powerful wifi that gives your entire business more coverage and automatic internet backup that can keep your business running. And it all starts with our gigspeed network. So give us 10 minutes. If we cant offer you faster speed or better savings than your current internet service, well give you 300 dollars for your time. Call now to get your comcast business 10 minute advantage. Comcast business. Beyond fast. They give us excellent customer otservice, every time. E. Our 18 year old was in an accident. Usaa took care of her car rental, and getting her car towed. 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Dont wait another minute, call now to purchase your American Eagle coins at cost for the amazing price on your screen. Neil all right. There are polls and there are crowds. Biden campaign is calling a new monmouth poll an outlyer but Elizabeth Warrens crowds they are not an outlier. In seattle, forc example, the other day, she had 15,000 stopping everything to hear her speak that was seattle, washington. Axios reporter stef kight what this means. Normally i can recall, when youre generating crowds, not long before youre generating money t was an early phenomenon that we witnessed with then senator barack obama challenging Hillary Clinton at the time for the democratic nomination in 2018. We know where that went. Apples and oranges i know this year, especially with a very crowded field but it is telling. If youre joe biden, should you be worried . Bidens team doesnt seem to be too worried. That is what theyre saying. Polls are an important indicator which candidate is seeming likely to win the nomination to go up against trump and we have seen biden overall tend to stay at the top of most polls. Most recently we had a poll come in shows biden slipping, pretty much tied with Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders and youre right, crowd size does matter. It is sort of, shows us how excited people are about that candidate. Elizabeth warren has had massive turnout to many of her rallies. Biden has had much smaller rallies, campaign rallies. It is heart to tell at this point. It seems this race is heating up. Were seeing biden not so far alp of other dan indicates. Well see whether he will continue to fall in those polls. Neil well know in a little more than a week of the monthly totals all the camps are bringing in here. Normally a direct parallel, not always but normally the crowd size in early going amount of money youre raising. Elizabeth warren is boosting her fundraising appeal, boosting so in smaller denominations. I dont believe she relies on big pacs that sort of thing, so its a different kind of money being raised, but different kind of enthusiasm she is building, isnt it . Absolutely. Biden relies some bigger donors, warren had so many more smaller donors giving to her campaign. It is a new grassroots fundraising that democrats admire. Biden is not generating excitement that Elizabeth Warren has. Biden had a tough month with gaffs he made all over the news and less than stellar debate performances in both debates. The first was markedly worse than the second. We are seeing this excitement move from biden who is seen as the candidate who is maybe most likely to beat trump to warren who is considered, someone more progressive, more willing to takec chances on big progressie changes. Neil thank you so much. Good catching up with you, stef kight. Thank you. Neil theyre still looking into overstock. Com. Pressure ramping up, concerns about what else do we not know . Charlie gasparino following a lot more on that right after abo this. Medications seem to be the number one cause for dry mouth
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