Of a voluntary formation of a Territorial Community took part in the defense of kyiv in the battles in irpen in the battles in the baryshiv direction on the left bank in the liberation of bucha gostomel and so on after the siege of kyiv ended after the muscovites were driven away from kyiv and the battalion became part of the National Guard, namely the fourth operational brigade of the National Guard and left for combat work in rubizhne and the city of rubizhne, luhansk region, where he passed through extremely difficult battles. Then there were equally extremely difficult battles in lysychansk, north donetsk, then it was just last summer in the second half of the summer, an extremely heavy combat company in the village of zaytseva, bakhmatsky district, now the initiative in this direction is by ukrainian forces, and actually everything should go according to plans to destroy the orcs, but we will not rush ahead because this war is a difficult war and i will not i would like to give some preliminary forecasts, er, some exaggeration of expectations and so on, in the direction where our battalion is now, there are very heavy battles and it was wild tanks using other armored aviation equipment the helicopters, the guys held their positions, the guys destroyed the enemy equipment, they did not allow the enemy to advance, now here we are, the guys who immediately left the combat from the front line, there is a certain internal rotation, and those guys who worked out, they are now in the reserve , and even here ugu is not far from the front line and continue to undergo training and training to improve their skills and are ready at any moment to step in again for the direct execution of combat tasks on the front line in view of the direction where your the guys are standing. I understand that you had to face enemy units not only of the regular army of the Russian Federation, but it was probably also wagner and terrorists of the socalled dnr of the lnr. Can you somehow differentiate the effectiveness of these enemy wagner so because wagner it was the main force just in the direction of bakhmut when we worked in the winter of last year, well, this year and last year , well, what can i say about wagner, wagner achieved a certain level of efficiency, thanks to two things. The first is cannibalistic domestic politics. Executions for any disagreement executions for execution of orders executions for anything and thats it. Well, in their russia with those coordinates it works , that is, they really go on the attack because they understand that only he fishes will shoot him. That is, this is such a superrepression and secondly, this is absolute indifference to losses, that is, i understand that even in the regular russian army, in principle, everyone cares about losses, but still there. There are some abnormal losses there according to their standards, conditionally speaking, someone will ask about these soldiers. Yes, there are some relatives there who will raise the question of where they are, what they are , and so on, and from Wagners Point of view , to include them in general, that is, they were recruiting convicts they chased all the meat assaults, they lay down there by the tens of thousands and they didnt care at all. Yes, they have not only prisoners there , they also have professional mercenaries. The first wave it always was these are meat assaults by the governors. And as for the people of volonery from dnirov, well, here again , the russian command uses them as cannon fodder, which is absolutely cannon fodder , that is, not all of them are used as cannon fodder, but they especially, that is, they eat them on its a pity, in general, while the west was deciding how much. When the russians were to give us help, they built several lines of defense, everything was replaced. In your opinion , could the western world have given us help earlier, and would it have helped us today with the contras, and definitely and in fact, lets start from the fact that we take 90 and in the 2000s, ukraine disarmed, we gave away nuclear weapons, we gave away a lot of other weapons, we gave away our own Strategic Aviation and a lot of other types of weapons that we actually really needed now, including, lets not lie, the west also supported it, it was armed thats why they are partly to blame for us, in fact, and if they had helped us since the 14th year, since uh, at least they are helping now, then i think everything would have gone completely differently and the war since the 14th year would have gone completely differently , but no we will enter debra eventually lets not forget that we also had a lot of problems and we had different people as president s, such as yanukovych, who sold ukraine to muscovites and so on. And all this led to the fact that we also have to understand that our policy led to the fact that we were losing combat capability, defense capability, and here there is no one to blame. The people who held positions in ukraine and made decisions are to blame here, and if we talk about today , of course, we would like to be given this aid in doses, given immediately and in those quantities they are needed, but again, i understand that here, uh, i understand how complicated this political process is. I understand that our diplomacy is working, doing Everything Possible to achieve these supplies, and so on. And of course, we should have the uh, the same f16 for example, were from the very beginning of at least a fullscale invasion, not to mention the 14th year, today it would be much easier to break through the enemys defenses, especially after the kharkiv counteroffensive , the Russian Federation became one of the main suppliers of weapons to ukraine, leaving extremely a large amount of ammunition and equipment. Does your battalion still have it, for example, and are you using it now against russia . Of course there is trophy equipment, there is trophy ammunition, there is trophy weapon. Hmmm, its absolutely normal and it all works today for ukrainian victory. You also need to understand what it says. Yes, it really sounds paradoxical, but most of the supplies of weapons to the Ukrainian Army were made in such a strange way, but the Russian Federation itself did it. It is necessary to clarify because, unfortunately, a lot of automobile equipment is lost there in the battles, it comes under fire and so on, but there was even a trophy such an autozak, it is real. So when this guards advanced on kyiv, they drove in autozaks , really, that is, they thought that these shields and batons were also in the autozaks there is a parade uniform, that is, they really thought that they would come to kyiv with batons, disperse everyone and put them in a car park, and then they would parade on khreshchatyk in the previous uniform, so one of these car parks, er, he er, served at least and it is probably still used in the interests of the Ukrainian Army. Well, you see the interior has changed, this means that the alarm, you even see a map of ukraine. It is almost all red, for some reason this time it is not in odesa. I see the odesa region. It is white. We can see everything else. Accordingly, we went down here to the basement and conduct, more precisely, we continue to conduct the program already from the basement, and oleksandr motil , historian, political scientist, professor of the Rudger University of good health, e. P. Oleksandr , thank you for finding time for us, and we would like dont worry, we have a small question, its not a small one, it may be big, what chances does biden have, because here in front of me is a reuters poll and people say that they want a better life, that the economy they dont like the Economic Situation they dont like it and this is an important point because we know that americans they are not voting according to what is happening in ukraine or in europe, whether it will be and which one, namely because i am a possibility, i do not know what this probability is, it is a possibility that trump will win according to the polls that you quoted. Me too and other polls for example, according to one, the americans were asked whether they were satisfied with the direction in which the country is developing, approximately 40 said yes, 60 said no. Thrombus 44 , well, in fact there is no particular difference, so in principle you can understand now everything is possible and here it is not only the issue of biden, not only the issue of the economy here, of course, also the issue of trump, because he presents himself as an alternative, not only which alternative he presents his possible an alternative that meets absolutely all the interests of the American People in contrast to biden , who is corrupt and so on and so on, so that in fact we are facing a real, by it i mean americans, there is a real and dangerous impossibility , to put it more neutrally, that the next president will be trump again and you understand that there is an additional possibility here, because several lawsuits against trump have already begun, the third, which was below this week, should be the fourth, and it is not excluded that one, two, or all of them will come to the conclusion that he guilty here, he must be convicted of one or another crime, and it is not excluded that he will win the election, and then a few months after the inauguration, two hands will come and the verdicts will be acceptable, they will be negative for him, then we will have a president who should be in prison, but he of course, as the president , he has the right to then appeal to the prosecutor general, who can cancel it for whatever reason , but dont imagine what it will do, then there will be mad protests from half of the country. Well, in general, you understand, there is even worse the possibility because america is so polarized that regardless of who wins, half of the country, well at least 3540 of ukraine will be madly satisfied with the result and will consider it as an exclamation mark as a violation of the rights of this and that and so on, so the possibility of some kind of destabilization is not excluded, the possibility is not excluded adaptation of violence, well, its hard to imagine, but in principle its all possible, take into account what was said this week, all these court cases. This is just political persecution. Well , of course, republicans in general and conservatives now say exactly the same thing that this is political persecution and so on. And this persecution reminds him, you know, of nazi germany in the 1930s, well , of course, it is the jews, his ignorance of germany and history in general, but the very fact that he says such things and that such things will be repeated by different republicans at Different Levels gives a certain, well, gives a certain taste of what kind of polarization there will be. 40 will win there, 45 will lose there. Well, a large number of people lose, but they have always reacted calmly to it. Why is there such an aggravation now . Well, you see, there are different factors, this generation is changing, the culture is changing, well, thats all interesting, thats all. Maybe, but these factors didnt have to lead to the fact that now i am the biggest, most important factor, its trump himself, you know, because they exist in republican parties are people both at the level of membership and at the level of leaders who are soberthinking people who are normal , which means that you can chat with them about various matters. Well, this does not mean that there will be any final decision, but at least you can talk with them, and trump is completely different category of person, you understand, it is not only a populist, it is a demagogue, it is a person who is absolutely convinced that she is right, that she is, so to speak, given by god that she has the right to define what is and what is not tenderness. Throw them so that they lie well of course it is true but it is not only a lie they are convinced that what they see is what they believe is real reality and to what extent it can be thrown idiocy stupidity er lack of intelligence but maybe even not completely lies and trump. Thats all he is. America was already to some extent divided into two parts, although in principle there was also the largest silent majority, it still exists, but he came and mobilized 303540 of the population on the basis of various fantastic promises that people believe him and what to do thank you mr. Oleksandr thank you we understand please excuse me simply we are still bombarded somewhere here we have a short alarm and so on and so on sorry for interrupting you Oleksandr Motyl historian political scientist professor of hungarian of the university was in touch with us. Thank you, oleksandr , we will contact you more than once, and now we have mr. Mykhailo gonchar, expert on International Energy and security relations, president of the center for global studies, strategy 21 thank you for finding the time for us. Thank you very much. I hope you are all right, because we have anxiety. We are moving around the floors. Now you see , we are sitting in the basement. Yes, i think it is all over ukraine, but my first question is important precisely because you are an expert not only in energy, but also from security relations, this is very important, and my question is very technical, on the one hand , but it seems to me that not much is said about this explosion of this tanker. From the black sea to the bosphorus, there are simply endless tankers, these are tankers with russian oil, these are tankers with kozbek oil , and so on. And if something blows up, my boyfriend always tells me what it means, the insurance increases terribly, and then, well, its not profitable, its not unprofitable, what do you say about the insurance of these tanks that they are taking this oil or this gasoline to the bosphorus, or across the bosphorus, somewhere further from novorossiysk, or i dont even know what, please, mr. Mykhailo , what about the freight rates for tanks, oil tankers there, or food trucks, and actually insurance should go up after that. I think we will see each other in the near future, because this is not done online. And actually, this is what should hit Russian Oil Exports if the sanctions introduced by our western partners do not work, and we see that they almost do not work, and since the flow of petrodollars to russia continues, there is talk that they have halved, so this is against the record last year, and so they calmly reached the indicators of the 21st year, and there were excellent indicators of waging war on the war budget is enough, thats why the situation is now radically changing due to the emergence of a kinetic threat to the entities. Here is this oil traffic in the black sea, and here it is necessary to carry out one such one, what a demarcation, so you mentioned kazakhstans oil eh and what were they saying now if it was possible to separate the noise that well, how will this be a threat and not only for russian oil, they say in general, by the way, it is kazakhstani oil. If it is of origin, it is from kazakhstan, and there is a part of the oil of the kazan state company , but mainly it goes to oil of american and European Companies that have been working in kazakhstan on relevant investment projects for decades, and the novorossiysk oil pipeline actually ends not in novorossiysk, but near novorossiysk there is such a yuzhny ozereivka. Shikharist bay directly, where the base of the black sea fleet is located nearby and where the main oil terminal of the transfect state transfect company is located the terminal of the caspian leading concert it is not located in novorossiysk but next to it, but it is separate, therefore, in principle, if , as was stated by the ministry of defense of ukraine at the time on july 20, and what is now , that is, what creates a threat, the projection of a threat to russian oil export traffic from of the black sea ports of russia, starting there , lets say sports caucasus, taman, novorossiysk , that is, all these are the main ports from which crude oil is mainly exported , as well as petroleum products, including to support, for example, groups of Russian Troops in syria due to the supply of, say, diesel fuel and aviation gas there , and here is exactly the tanker that was hit by the zic. He was engaged in this periodically and in principle in the war as in the war. That is, all the means used by the enemy are not important. These are warships of weapons on board are these auxiliary vessels in the black sea by the way, there is a company of the ministry of defense of russia called defense logistics, which is engaged in auxiliary vessels, which is actually engaged in the supply of the necessary fuel ammunition and so on, all of them are legitimate targets for attacks by the armed forces of ukraine, mr. Mykhailo, mr. Mykhailo, look at one more question its not about today, its about what will happen starting at least from december, how can ukraine survive the winter, that it will be a more difficult winter than winter has passed, it will be easier than winter, that is, how is it in general in ukraine in terms of ee energy supply, energy in energy and energy industry, gas, oil, coal of a Nuclear Power plant, will everything work, or we do not know, or it will work worse than winter. What kind of winter awaits us . Well, no one knows that how warm or cold it will be, no one ever knows, and accordingly, of course, from the metallurgical point of view, the previous two winters were warm, and in principle, even if the winter is colder than this last two , i think that we will pass them uncomfortably. Of course now Everything Possible and impossible is being done there to minimize the consequences of last winter, meaning the damage that was caused to the energy infrastructure, primarily electric power, but there are many complaints, this is quite understandable, but it is necessary to understand one thing, so to speak, to restore the margin of safety that was in the power system until the 22nd year, well, this is unrealistic, because in the morning , they are damaged. Well, they are divided into two categories those that can be repaired and restored. And in principle, the power system has lost quite a lot of its potential. Both from the point of view of generation, everything will be the production of electricity and heat, and from the point of view of its communication capabilities. But at the same time, it retains a sufficient margin of flexibility and strength, and if er, there will be proper work of air defense means, and practically last winter it saved us. We must speak frankly about it, now the state of air defense seems to have improved from the point of view of protecting such critical objects as the Power Generation facility and the er, Unified Energy System of ukraine, therefore, if there is a reason to hope that it will be uncomfortable again, maybe even more uncomfortable than it was last winter, we can pass it. Of course, there are many complaints from the point of view of readiness. These numbers if they are taken without reference to the specifics, then they can be negatively terrifying, but the question is that the numbers were taken in relation to the financial dimension, so much was affected, so much, there are billions, and only a few hundred million works have been done, but if, roughly speaking, an order for billions worth of equipment arrives in august, it will be assembled there by november, then the figures will be completely different. Of course, this is not a panacea that will save us. But nevertheless , thanks to this, we are actually not one year old thanks to all the repairs survived ot and it is true if there will also be a period, the next season is survival and we need to survive with joint efforts, you are living mr. Mykhailo gonchar thank you very much an expert in International Energy and security relations, the president of the center for global studies strategy 21 was in touch with us thank you very much, our program is ending, our part of our programs now there will be news basement news from anna and eva melnyk will start now and i say goodbye for good Taras Shevchenko resists his words on the chevrons of the defenders of his ideas in in the hearts of millions of free people, his lines in battle songs at the front and in the rear, fight back, fight, fight, the formula of our victory, august 2627, shevchenko is waiting for you in morintsy at the chefest festival in support of the armed forces of ukraine , shevchenko resists in tychyna, august 2627 , morintsy, cherkasy, alcoholfree event, entrance free pain can become an obstacle not with mine relaxation of muscles and threads there are discounts on lcet tablets 5 in pharmacies podorozhnyk for you and savings events the most important events events that are happening right now and affect our lives of course the news feed reports about them, but it is not enough to know what is happening, you need to understand antin borkovskyi and invitations experts soberly evaluate events analyze them by modeling our near future every saturday at 1 00 p. 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