Transcripts For DW Conflict 20240703

Kind of jumped up some successes on the battlefield in recent weeks. Ive actually taken back control of drilling platforms now in the black sea. Ive been on it if you could give us an idea of some of the, of the scale of the challenges k of now faces in order to make further advances. I think it would be really difficult to overestimate the challenge, i mean, the ukrainians, uh uh, ranged against well established russian defenses. Other options that have time to begin, they know about digging in theyve got in probably by the book on the credit is going to break it into the very, very well as a defensive design breakthrough. Its going to take, don, mine feels like go to us. They go to occur with the significant alternatives incoming file. Theyve got to break through and then theyre going to break out. Are they going to do all of this without proper eye color without us you parent or say which no nature allow me when considered to identify battery as well . No, no. So im a full stop has done on a past obstacle crossing in really difficult circumstances. No other day, so ill be with the exception of the u. S. Codes go to even take this long coded and its cutting in the account and fold. Oh, i think i think it is. I think, okay, any nice i well, i mean, but, but the, so as far as to high intensity, come back on pricing would be, would it be for pat to take this on, but not with our, an extraordinary amount of time preparation, training of building up the equipment building are kind of national doing is im in a sense its, its is this as well . Um, i mean the, the, the college did in 91 was to break for the rocky defensive position, but it was on a past. So it was pretty easy, guy never has done this since the 2nd world war in your most has always, ive spoke j as on Counter Insurgency in places like iraq, as you mentioned, that kind of stuff. So theyre not exactly used to defending against the huge invasion, but your emphasis and the last few months has been on telling them that they should is that which i think is going to happen. I think its nice to have is to detach russia. Long term nature is going to be printed prepared for the worst case, which is to be prepared to fight russia. We have major armies of golf, but ive got to put the Conference Agency mindset behind them and we can talk about. So there is an understanding of time constituted combat operations. How much was the on, depending of national arm is during the cold war. Now thats going back a very long time. Ive started a new generation, have got to find ways to do as the exact same of sleet of foot to resubmit as if weve seen the its members zombies and spend a few days in latvia training where someone just realized the whole data personnel speak the same language with the same degree of deficiency, nevermind time, chops the 3 out of 24. 00, but its big military vehicles broke down on the boat to way. Its not impressive is at the moment as well. They say, i mean i remain a sign of nice i, but you have to recognize it was nice that it takes time that its a Consensus Organization i added its got to be able to is it has to move up to speed of a flight ship in the convoy, i mean, coming back to your fast, dont touch it, and thats a strategic point, your tactical points that youre talking about. Well, thats what exercises are for the test to get it right until during this time, my things are going wrong. And so you can put them right, they started flips, of thoughts made. So multinational operations, at least its the but it needs to hurt and its capability and its the higher and its capability by training. And its a can do that. Im really pursue the, the to see, right . So im spend, it can, it can build the big begin to build up that to turn capability that is needed for their side of that. So i was now, i went all the executor labeled of 18 months into the largest live boy you have since the 2nd world war. Shouldnt things be going a little better these days . All right, it might just saying things going wrong. The better for me to stop and brought from us to for, i mean, we need to recognize this more. Didnt begin in february 20 uh, february 2022 at the gun in, in, in, in march 2014 mazda brought when ross, or ive talked to brian. All you play february 2014 when its a nice kind that i just made. So how it works or not, but im and really puts it in place. The measures required to build up its high intensity capability. Say, hey, we might not be where we are, be your brain might pop by re, by, well, anyway, factors, we all, what we also want so showed us to the grind started making it happen, drive home and you cant afford not to do that sort of thing so im with you completely. Last year, a study as parameters, the car callous of all the data is previous plans for defending the Baltic States. A country with basic therapy wiped out of the map by a russian, a box, tomatoes, extensive planning stuff over the years of the cold war as increase based stock posts the day. Well, thats exactly why i write my book. Yeah, russia hides, it highlights the french to the Baltic States written as a wake up cool to get and they started thinking about what it would do because car tell us was absolutely right that if the russians attacked it with a present, it may so with the 2 options, one, right, by accept number 2 months, a massive invasion of the voltage states to reach out to them. And so it is absolutely right. No, im not privy to the planning, but nature is putting in place extensive plans to defend nay to entire truth, which is exactly what it should be doing. But at the same time its one thing to put a plans in place. It means the means to protect and that comes brings us back to building up. Data is the tire and capability. And that means focusing on high intensity conflict on the capability is required for high intensity conflict. It also means providing the cash to do that stuff. That is, i mean, youve got the 3 largest economies in may say youve got from germany and its all they still dont paying 2 percent of g d p to most defense. So what kind of signal does that send to the credit . Because when its under say its, thats a pretty ball 2nd, a lot of pain. Lets look at the positives last. Im in the positives of countries like highland absolutely building up. Its kind of going to say go the voltage sides started a lot the see right now. Likewise, of course that guys are not saying not. I was in the Czech Republic recently, project republic, already putting the money while theyre in boxes and building up the capabilities is that youre absolutely right. Countries like germany, italy, france, not yet beginning to spend the 2 percent of g d p. Indeed, the German Defense budget for trying to try to get free is not that it was for 2022. What sort of signal does not said, what does that tell you about the cycles i can bundle this cycle moments or grades change when johnny was going to guarantee 2 percent of g d p. Yeah, on yeah, in defense, i would also not just like i wouldnt let but, and also the whole kinds of, i mean bridges. So not cosette. Brittany will spend 2 percent 2. 5 percent of g d p. When the economy allows that off. Right, isnt good enough and thats where a long way short in this country side of western European Countries, frankly need to wake up if youre a little more gaming this conflict and you cry with all that stop logistical military political uncertainties thrown into the mix. How are it, would you be . Well, im an optimist, i made sure, but im also rest rid of this. I think the ukraine will achieve its military objectives. Ukraine does not kind of stop slicing. Youve kind of determination, but will, in ukraine is absolutely extraordinary. Ukrainians, and that as i stop fighting, ukraine will stop existing as a country, so they wont go on fighting until theyve defeated russia with always on the west. What does want to me though, is the west support for ukraine . Americans support for your grand . Were coming up to the election. Yeah. Free of or leading republican the contents of sudden i would pull out pull americans support from ukraine. An election yeah. Means potential in decision and stuff is i worry about the level of capability to support in, for example, whether the time continue to dig deep and provide the ammunition and all of our capabilities that your credit needs. So i want to back provide rotation. I worry about prevarication, for example, jonathan is still hasnt made up his mind whether to send taurus the long range precision this all seriously capable and exactly what your Training Needs to complement its high miles on the british storm shadow as well. So those of the, i worry about the will of a west to continue to do what needs to be done. And theres a simply question. Yeah. If the west does, what needs been done, the west is going to be more secure because it will mean ukraine can defeat russia quickly if this thing runs old on, on, on the west as your, as a whole, will be less secure and in jeopardy storage and we dont talk much about on the in was these days, but its an honorable stops in your view for the west to say to craig, okay, you go ahead and cite di for our values and well give you some of what you need to do that. But were not going to risk upsetting youll. Itd be too much so that he turns on us, is that on mobile . Well, i think its difficult and i figured id sort of books, right . That was honorable. Im on the floor for example, the nation that somehow the west and they tire shouldnt be and insisting but you credit and find some more a that, that, that meets and that, but the way that nice i would do it might be very simple, gives the ukrainians the means to do the job and let them get on with it. Provides a support in terms of intelligence and cyber. And im an e w, of course. But dont try. Im 2nd guest, ukrainian generals and say, you know what works. They have been fighting the russians not for over 18 months, and they have, they have watched it, the russians, they have demonstrated that thats all about what they still like is real capability. And equally, your point about uh, putting the time the constraints on your brand. It is absolutely right for you grind development, defend itself to practice in a level right of self defense. And if i mean, striking out into russia, well, so be, its, im afraid this self deterrence is it well by the west has only resulted in, in the prolongation of the war. If you cry and not have the means to really follow up the the liberation of cas on in november last year. Things might be different as it was, they didnt have that capability. But as a west, ive not given them one rule they really needed. And in a timely memo about a lot of the russians to re establish the front line. So robot can to stop building the cycle. So robot can line of defense making it much, much more difficult for the credit. And so thats a simple equation. It was if you apply, if you concentrate on that, if you, if you, if you really go for a vendor, youre going to change. All right . And so if youre in trouble, if youre prevaricates, youre going to make things much less because it kind of take much longer. Youre talking about ukraine striking into russian territory with costa bones. Have you no qualms about that . 100 countries, so about what the a mazda, i dropped the bombs around a file on file. I dont expect to walk across the rail and absolutely to close the use of the bones box. If you, if trust, if you cry and needs possible items to clear a russian friend of systems on your credit, entire tree, that is a completely different packages you that as a model for the pregnancy. But what your crime does need is long range because theres new types of bullets it so that it can target russian logistic installations, headquarters on the light and, and make it very difficult for the russians. Youve got a wide, influential circle of your credit and contacts government, parliament military intelligence in may you even spend the nights in a and a bump. Sheltered care . Is that right on the front part of the bone shelter along with many of the people who visited you crime, what was the mood like the inspirational determined . Absolutely, this is wrong. I mean, the crime is, as i said on the, ill fix it, determined to fight to protect the literacy. They recognize that this is a will not just against ukraine, but its again, its a war against the west and the trend. Joining the west, the determination, the inspiration of the engineer to the um the, the relative view for the leadership. This is a dynamic country, determined to build its to protect itself and to build itself up and to become the fun part of the west. That people are afraid about what the west might do or might not do to help them. Ive been using face in the west of my things known as the grateful to the west for what the west has given them. I think on the sands of the berries, frustration. But the west is trying to 2nd guess them and tell them how to use it. Where a number and the number of recent articles which, which, which, which i think ive made the point in the west, were trying to so i can guess the requirements. But fundamentally, i think you crap engines are absolutely absolutely grateful. But let them get all and as i said to them that some get on and do what they need to do without interfering with them. And the comments like, uh, will be with you all the way for as long as it takes they listen to those coming out of brussels. They listen to those coming out of washington that they believe. Do you believe them . Well, i think im afraid frontier, but i do. Why is that the that will continue unless the positive actually lets, lets say for example, yes, the nice i saw me, it was very clear in terms of the support. But i would like to see also actually a statement of the nature of somebody that ukraine will join may. So when the conditions allow, when the flashing of stops, and i went ahead and we all day to give you without any less or hindrance everything, you need to make that pricing start as quickly as possible. In other words, to defeat corrections on the tv. Okay. And bring back to our true credit, entire tray on the credit in salt frontier and control several how, how finely balanced is this more in your view . How could things go badly wrong for you . Okay. What are the possible inflection points that you cried needs to watch for . What do you crash going to continue to defend the russians while continue to months offensive operations . Well, they see opportunities as they are indeed mounting some reform all offensive in the northern part of the house. It appears not with the effective results, so you can go to continue to protect itself protected central gr. Obviously its also strength and its also strength visits. People, and it will add, its determination the lots made. So lots has also got a protected source of strength, which is, its a launch cation. I think it ukraine will prevail. I think your credit is prevailing at the moment, but it can, it will only achieve final victory when it has broken through a port of, uh, the, the russian defenses. And in my view front and trying to and from those lines of communication, don to crime the, making it very impossible for the russians to hold on. And so i just got a recall, a huge amount more effort. And lets be on site jeff. Its not going to be over with one offensive. I think we have to be ready to support the grant is in a series of counter offensive, or which are going to require the same levels of training equipment. Im interested in that the launching of the fast defensive for across so this could run on for time. So the west nature needs the strategic patients to continue to support your grand till the end the end of the day. You know how about the possibility . I think it was a, in an article in may that if the west of the supply all the hardware you pay needs now, victory may not be possible. A nice entrance might have to intervene. Directing to assure that k f wins. Um, do you think thats a real possibility . Is that something that nato would have seriously contemplate that they so never seriously come to places before 2014 or even up to 2014, an invasion of ukraine by russian nation. I never seriously contemplated the Baltic States would be for us and you can never say no, but the setup to the subject of this was the now i it but it never. You read it. If it really services dont nice i would. And at the rock that would you your inside ukraine . I think youd have seen a completely different approach to turns back up a call this nation. I saw this in 2014 for example. So never roll anything out. Um does what is nice . Okay. Do i have to get involved . I pray not. But if the alternative is a decade of stay on, maybe a decade, all an enormous conferences, a running so in Eastern Europe, who knows nature, paul might need to get involved in order to swing the balance because that sort of style made a running so in Eastern Europe, along the borders of ukraine, is going to be a french to, to europe in security. And if at the end of the day, your pan security is, is threatened. Nature of security is trusting nighttime, and may have to take action to support your credit. But the way to avoid is that the way to avoid may to engagement is the double don know, and next. Yeah. On what ukraine needs to achieve, victory. But just to follow up on, on how you think this might go. Do you think the base or whatever chief consensus on a plan to move in directly assisting credit in forces with members like 100 off chip. So i kept talking oh, possessing a veto. You think the never gets together to do that . Well, it goes, australia is no longer made to a number, but no point is absolutely fine. The coast consensus would be incredibly difficult to get concepts that consensus, but as a set of nato moves at the speed of a flyer to ship in the convoy and this, if the threats is the, is the circumstances of im not clear and not the moment, but here not errors antonios time. Things may well have changed and, and if it needs to nice, i will get that. You have told him some of your interviews about a war last thing 2 to 3 years. No quick fixes. Is that a danger that over such a long periods, but it will result as globalized . It drops from the headlines. People get bored, they lose the fighting spirit. Money dries up, other priorities begin to dominate. Is that a possibility in this instance to think . Absolutely, absolutely. And thats exactly what im wire to by the west losing interest, the west losing momentum, the west losing 5 coast nights. I may say, oh im is they tied Defense Forces not building themselves up. Suffice without being built off to face those right . Absolutely. Thats my concern, but the with, as i said, i that with an election. Yeah. Next year in america. Will america continue to provide that enormous capability . And thats something we got to watch. And it comes back to my point about the way to make sure that ukraine achieves its better as quickly as the double dawn of what it needs. Now, in order to avoid that long running, the long running on sale next. Do for see what kind of your do you 4 see coming out of this or its its not going to be the same. Is it nothing is ever going to be the same again after this . What changes . Everything changes, doctrine, it changes a whole perception of security in your doesnt it . I think very still saw it very still in your among European Countries a lingering feel that somehow we can go back to some sort of stage of the quote to with russia, that is not going to happen. What ever happens . Yeah, lets assume your credit achieves. Thats been the trajectory. Lets assume the guns bull, silent, the veterans some as a result of 5 of the russians running a white flag, all the novices or something and the ukrainians able are able to, to deliver it as much of the country as will allow them. The security of, of it was not looking for that is not going to stop russia. The russian dissolved under what a leader is in the kremlin. Russia will continue to want to eliminate ukraine from a map. Its built into russian dna that ukraine cannot exist as a, as a country. There is no such thing as a separate nation or culture of ukraine. And that means that ukraine has got to become part of nature. And that means, but in order to protect and they try to protect your protect the laws, protect ukraine nights i was going to establish a bond of the tyrants, deal around around Eastern Europe between 2 of ukraine mall drive of georgia. Maybe even one day by the rest uh, to protect against a russian because what were witnessing is the decline of the russian. And this is going to play out over the decades to comments, not innovative and over and done with the quickly. Its yours of my grandchildren, 100 based pricing goes challenge. And so the only way to maintain peace in your loan is through an effective nature to turn so that instead of change the change but dynamic in economically financially, the way your does is business. I dont think the public is completely dropped out, but thats my view of the way things are going to happen. Do you think by doctrine of new care to tone subscribes to survive this conflict . Now the russians being waving gets nukes and all faces. And how are we going to see it when they have a new param, states doing the same thing, whatever they want, something that to we wont get home is yeah, i mean, i think youre going to be ready to cancel it, but as, as assuming, but somehow because weve got, youre right in this country weve, weve got try it in to an integral dropped into continental villa sickness. All that is going to credibly russian aggression to the tire effectively. You need to be able to deter at every level how symmetric conventional types on the plan all the way up the scale. I think for the foreseeable future, russia of course, will post a new friend. The way to to the target is to have effective new political turns as well as conventional the turns. But the way to and showed up a new class in the nucleus, sabre rattling, uh, is, is, in a sense rendered um, meaningless is through effective conventional to tire detox because of russia thinks that it can get away with Nuclear Black mile vette. It wont try that. And if you have effective the terms on every level, it wouldnt be able to provide the big a problem, the west to show that it listens to new, to blackmail. Its been listening to what the crime in the sentence its, its turned down, its rhetoric, it hasnt given you credit. The weapons that need it listens to nuclear back maam. And that makes it valuable to basically like north korea, doesnt it . Well, lets just back to my point about self determines and a not cooling pritchens month. I mean, lets be clear. And the sort of new saber rattling is really, really dangerous. Uh, but yeah, the west needs to be absolutely unequivocal. And im shoulders the top of, i mean, i think we have to not upset of course, is that there is communication between america and russian. Up, there is communication between certain, all the native capitals and russia. Im absolute this out, that the message has been played out very powerfully. But if there is in the fall of nuclear uh new to release time to come over otherwise rush, i can expect to suffer a massive pain conventionally as a result. But the wesley spit clara determined about that. So richard sheriff, we broke out of time. Unfortunately, i thank you very much for being on complex. So thank you for having me. Thankful for your time. Thank you. The the Technology Side and all that. Good side of the nice. What about the were just responsibility. The project enlightenment in 15 minutes on the rug, the environment, Trends Technology company is digitalization, stall, tops, new market, new media. The world is accelerating these the opportunities to try new things. 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