Transcripts For DW To 20240703

American abrams tax already arrived in ukraine. So on to the point we ask us to attack thems missiles and abrams tags is russia losing crimea . The welcome to this week to the point im have you know. Yeah, thats, its good to have you with us and im joined by this weeks guest catherine clue, but ashbrook is a german american political scientist. And a Senior Adviser for germany is that its my cell nation to mass of eguard as a journalist, specializing in International Defense and security policy, and ben hodges, former commander u. S. Army europe and the chairman of the globe sex future security and defense council. So all of you welcome to thank you very much for being with us until us. Id like to start with you because were constantly trying to assess the state of this war. I could here seems to be an increasingly frequent target for the ukraine in military, and they now seem to have hit the russian lexi fleet severely. How significant is that . Thats pretty significant. It shows the ability of ukrainians to hit targets in crime, yet especially the headquarters of the russian sleep there. And the so you, ukraine makes clear, its villing and able to hit the target there. And Going Forward are chief military progress with the help of western weapons. Is this new, or is this something that has been possible before it has been possibly before, but the scale is becoming different . Obviously, its not really confirmed that they use british salma shadow crews. Miss outs to hit this headquarters. This means that those a long range weapons from the west to well make a difference catherine ukraine, plains to have killed rushes. Lexi fleet commander, how credible are these reports and does it make a difference moving forward in this . What do you think . Do you have a crystal ball . I think we would let us have one, and this is really difficult. I think even for journalists, you know, on the ground to confirm what the reality is. I mean, we have, were in the middle of information, were all the same. The russians have posted not one, but now 2 videos of this admiral sort of seemingly alive and well, who knows when these are dated, etc, etc. If in fact, the attack, you know, if we were talking about injury personnel, and if this admiral, in fact was killed, if it would be a huge hit on russian morale. And of course, thats why you see the information war ramp up the way it has on the russian side. And it also has a tactical and answer of strategic implications as well. It would demand a reordering of some of the command structure out of semester pull. If it is a, it would be a very significant which can we confirm this independently at this moment in time . No, we cannot. It is always very, very difficult. Now, menu cream is trying to, so the idea very clearly that the country offensive is going well. But weve also seen significant russian attacks, especially on the port city of odessa. How are things looking for the russian army from your perspective, or i would hate to be a Russian Private sitting in a trench right now. No one did. I have a terrible logistic system behind me, and commanders dont care about me. And looking at ukraine every week, increasing and its capability was 54. 00 nations supporting it. The, the attacks that youre describing that have happened against the crimea, are part of this counter offensive. The counter offensive is so much more than the, than just the ground to solve whats happening with the trenches and demand fields. Thats an important part, but its only a part of the Training Journal staff is conducting what nato calls and when the us calls multi domain operations, where you integrate the effects of land, sea air, cyber information, special forces. So this hit on the headquarters was not just a coincidence. This is the result of intelligence, sabotage, commando, rage destroying radar. The hit on the, on the dry dock and some estoppel which is a very important hit because it destroyed maintenance capability as well as the submarine and to ship. And then the headquarters in katherine is exactly right. Its not so much the loss of a commander whether or not they are most killed. He can be replaced, much more difficult to, to replace 30 staff officers. I mean, that is a real hit on the ability of the black sea fleet. So finally, this is about making crimea untenable for russian forces, the air force, the navy logistics, make it untenable as a necessary step to liberating premier or that might come at a very high human cost. If we will leave the russian side, im just going to confirm you with this. The Russian Defense minister said that only in september that the Ukrainian Army had 17000. 00 casualties. What do you make of these types of statements as well . First of all, i, the kremlin would be the last source i would use for any information, but theres no doubt the crane is, is suffering casualties. Of course they are. But imagine the human cost. If russia wins, i mean that you craniums know, they are fighting for their survival as a nation, as a state. And they literally are trying to protect their families. So the, the number you decided thats about the number of ukrainian children who have been deported out of ukraine into russia. So i think ukrainians are not going to stop. They definitely say so, and some experts agree they need to because this war will probably be here to stay. And that resistance and a constant supply of i mean nation are decisive. Thats why the ukranian president traveled to north america to seek wider support for his defense. But things werent as easy as last time, or dont be fooled by the hugs and Smiling Faces to let them hear zalinski was hard at work during his trip to north america, gathering military and Political Support from the global community. He gave a passionate speech at the un, followed by a frustrating encounter with the security council. From there he traveled to washington dc where he was welcomed at the white house. And then with a quick stop to canada, join you move up to date, defense minister room or of delivered an important report. The 1st American Made abrams tanks are already in ukraine. Were preparing them to reinforce our actions against the occupiers. And it will be a significant reinforcement. We are also working to get all the other weapon capabilities we need, you know, growing you must louis this statement could be alluding to further weapon deliveries from the United States, which is apparently prepared to deliver attack ends. These missiles are capable of flying up to 300 kilometers with this weapon system, be a game changer in the war against russia. And catherine watching that, what do you make us the lens keys, trip and his ability to gather more support, more money, more weapons, and more sections while i was in washington at the same time as the ukranian president. And uh, i can say that that it was decided as decidedly mixed residents out of is because in as much as he talked to republican lawmakers on the hill quite aside from the congressional speed. We see now that ukraine is becoming a political play ball, not just to get ahead of the 2024 elections and the 2nd republican debate. We had them last couple of hours. But as a matter of course, in the actual debate of whether we can keep the American Government open and functioning, kevin mccarthy, the leader of the house republicans, is pending his own political fortune on whether or not the 25000000000. 8 power 24000000000, a 1000000000 dollar a package is going to be in what sent it in congress as senate and house actually sit down to negotiate on a or to keep the u. S. Government open. And i think that since a very dangerous signal, that puts, should put all the rest of the western alliance on alert that these issues around consistent americans support wont just come to haunt us, come the election in 24 by could become a very vala tiled moment. In the continuously of the western alliance far earlier. And that not everything, of course, can be decided in the white house of how significant would it be if there is not, not less than lets say, lets not say no support but less support for the Training Army coming closer ukrainians are dependent on west on supplies it relates to municipal for alternative re, but it also relates to new weapon systems. Weve talked about that weve seen via tech on this, but the problem is, im not sure whether a general band has an idea which worse and what will be delivered. Lets talk about the 300 kilometer range of the at tech m, as in the usual version. But theres also talk of the cluster munitions of worst, which has much less wage. What the ukraine needs is a munition weapon systems with a long range. So the details of will make a difference. Im going to test that question specifically to ben ben at just to just start with the 2 weapon systems that weve talked about so far. Im from costa rica country with no army. Could you explain to of yours were maybe not acquainted with weapon systems . What difference does it make for ukraine to have se abrams tax to . Well, the arabs tank itself, its the best tank in the world of german leo pard, is exceptional. The british challenge are, these are very good systems, but what matters most are the people inside the tank. And then how these tanks are actually employed, im sure the ukrainians will make good use of the abrams. Theres enough for one battalion, 31 tanks and a you know, you create in tank battalion. Im sure they also will protect the location and time of their deployment employment until theyre, theyre ready as well. But, you know, 31 tanks is not going to change the outcome of the war, but it obviously is going to help superman. However, it seems to say that that it will change or it will be decisive. Lets talk about the attack comes missiles, then to my side. Ukraine has been asking for them for months and months. Will that really change the course of your . Well, 1st of all, we have to say theres no real single weapons system, which will be a game changer that has to be in. And when we talked about the tang, so we talk about the far distance besides systems, every single boat contribution, but its not a single system which will completely lead to a different outcome of the wars to the whole system as been put into multi domain operations. Every single self importance and when we talk about the tech comes, its again, its a we which of ukrainians want to make a difference if they get along. Were in to us. What exactly militarily, what that imply to have this long range. This would mean that the ukraine is, would be able to read logistic lines, supply points combined centers, all this stuff, way beyond the range they have at the moment. So when we look at cry, me very is a lot of possible targets for these long range stipends. Theres also applies to the discussion about german cruise. My thoughts, a towel goes, its save us apart, which we have seen what wouldnt have been possible with all this long range systems. And also were talking about the coach bridge, which is a show point for the supply of crimea. Ukraine is able to read this pretty until destroyed this little really would make a difference. But after weve seen your fines allies, very reluctant to deliver these types of weapons, do you think it has to do with the fact that they would go into territory that ukraine didnt have control of that . And just a year ago . Well, heres the thing that, you know, is this sort of cut of what a should a piece. I mean, weve seen this now what, what irritates me. And i think many of us look at this very closely is the fact that we dont seem to be learning out of our debates around when weapons are delivered in the kind of sequencing. And conversely, the kind of trusts that we can put in the ukrainians a task mentioned the cluster munitions, you know, the americans didnt deliver cluster munitions quite independently of, of attack them delivery system. But until they had written guarantees by the ukrainians and that off the ukrainians are using that kind of munition system very effectively. We need to be supporting the ukrainians, such that they can have agility, such that they can have independence in their Decision Making and such that we trust their tactical ambitions. And this is where were having difficulties across the trans atlantic devices. The americans feel that there should have been a slightly different tactical approach taken, but this is why the sequencing of those, the landscape visit plus those of us to pull attack. Technically, you should offer a very powerful political arguments in washington, at least in the defense circles. Because it proves that they can use the british and french system is very effectively to the ambition of what the americans have actually laid out. You know, the americans have been very skeptical of effectively this, you know, this east and southern flag the fight around by moods. The americans would have rather seen a surge into the south outright. It would have cost a lot of ukrainian lies within a very difficult to hold domestically. But thats the kind of work we need to be doing. And fundamentally, we need to learn out of our experience. Poor negotiations around the s, 16 general ben has said a number of times we would never send american troops into a land where, like we have it without the appropriate air cover. We need to continue to make it flex the make. The Ukrainian Army be flexible in agile, and when i use this word we, i mean the western coalition, which above all needs to stick together. And certainly, your brain is trying to make that point as well, especially announcing advances in its counter offensive after weeks of stand laid on the front things seem to be going better for your brain. Important tactical games have been made on several fronts and decisive weeks ahead of the european winter. Flow and study is the key concept behind the ukranian counter offensive, which finally managed to break through rushes 3rd line of defense. Last week. It appears to have worked and torment located in the south east region of that fortys yet, russias Regional Logistical hub. Ukraine is also reported success from the fighting around buck flute, but their biggest blow was to russian blacks the fleet headquarters. And so foster paul, where you cream is reporting a desktop of more than 30 russian officers. Its the latest and a growing number of strikes on occupied premier with the objective of making symbolic and strategic games in the peninsula that lives at the heart of the conflict. But can ukraine leverage the success to create a meaningful advantage . Or are we approaching another winter of grinding deadlock . And im going to test uh that question to ben. Do you recognize, speaking specifically about the front lines in the south . Do you recognize a strategy by the ukranian military, or are they just taking whatever as possible . I so this is all about crimea. Crimea is the decisive terrain of this war. Ukraine knows, will never be safe and secure, and theyll never be able to rebuild their economy as long as russia occupies crimea. And the russians dont care about don bass, except that that gives them the land bridge that connects roast of down to crimea. So if the right, if the ukrainians are able to liberate crimea, or at least make it untenable and usable for russian forces, then theyre going to win this war. The Land Component of the counter offensive is aimed at several rings that land bridge. Thats what places like top micro so important because once i get there and then they can bring up other long range weapons, exactly is trauma said to to be able to go after russian logistics. And once you have separate the land bridge, either by fire or by occupation, then the only thing just left is the courage bridge. And now from it isnt a real fix. And so this entire counter offensive, its aimed at isolation of crimea making untenable, and eventually liberating it. Now long range precision fire or the key here, whether its in a tech comes or taurus, more storm shadow or scale or the ground launch small diameter bombs, drones, whatever it is, the capability the ukrainians need is to be able to Pound Service stobel the air base it saki, the logistics of the gen court. And if this is happening 2 or 3 times a day, week after week, theres no way that the russian navy can continue to operate from there. Or the air force can operate from there. Taking back from you, you can always sounds like such an ambitious goal to us. Do you agree that this is a realistic goal that that we could be see . Well, maybe we should not focus too much on only talking about the military conquests of crime. Yeah, its always talked about quote, the Ukranian Army take crime. Yeah, i think thats the wrong approach. Could the ukrainians be in a position to fall so russians to talk about crime. Yeah. To, to start the goals, you guys and its about crime. Yeah, i think thats the, the, the realistic point to talk about. I dont think that well see the Ukrainian Tanks rolling down to the coach bridge. Thats up the point to do agreement. Is that not the points swell . Thomas is a journalist. Ive respected for years, but of course i completely disagree with him on this. The, the, the point is not our tank is going to roll down to the courage bridge. The point is, or the russian is gonna be forced. Russian military force to leave crimea. And that is 60, as long as the black sea fleets able to sit there instead of a sofa, and they have no problem launching uh, uh, caliber missiles against training and cities, and the power grid. Look, i, i overestimated the willingness of the west to provide what was needed, and therefore i projected bedroom premier would be liberated earlier then obviously, its not going to happen that way. My president has got to lay out what our objective is. Thats the thing thats missing here. We have the present worth to say. It talk to the American People like they were adults and say look, its an our interest that you practice successful. Its in our interest that ukraine is able to jump rusher back to the 1991 borders. Its in europes advantage that this happens, and we want ukraine to win. Thats our objective. Not this empty uh were with you for as long as it takes. So if we say we walked away and then theres no more excuses about how many attack comes or how long it takes to train the f. 16 pilot, or how much fuel abrams tank burns. And then i think well see the bonus counselor. I agree to provide taurus, i mean they pretty much have said that theyll be no more excuses about taurus as well. But the tough and why is it typical to sell to the American People to the American People . Because the American People dont generally focus on Foreign Policy and new crime is a very long a rate you know very far away. But it is remarkable that weve now had 2 primary debates for the republican party. Were ukraine has launched a major screaming match. Uh, honest age of people who would be lining up to possibly be a republican candidate. And its interesting with general ben just said, because the vice principal of pens again in you who used to be a part of a Trump Administration where ukraine became a play of all of a 1st impeachment process yellow that vic brown was swami in the debate yesterday. To say, look, you know, we cannot, we cannot lose ukraine to russia. Russia will be at our, you know, front door. But what is happening now is that the entire ukraine question is being manipulated, manipulated politically, particularly in the republican party. And exactly as general ben said, one would wish them that in the course of a, of a front election year, which will be a difficult moment. Also in terms of fuel politics. We have a president that makes these goals exceptionally clear, holds the senate together. And that were no longer using ukraine question as a political and financial a play ball, which is currently whats happening in domestic politics. And that its not sidelined and attached to a china question as if the kind of weapon systems were currently at the point. And again, lets underscore that this is an extremely cheap for, for the United States. Defending american liberty in ukraine is unbelievably cheap. Its the most efficient and she for the United States as far in modern times, or has been engaged with in modern times. And thats what, thats a narrative, it needs to stick to because whats the wider state . Because of course, the systems architecture that we have long built our wealth and security on. And if that becomes increasingly part of a narrative. And if the g o p recognize, can hold their partys feet to the fire, wed be in a much better position. Is that going to happen . I dont know. Its an extremely volatile situation. Politically nights you are mentioning the crystal ball before we will have a little bit of time to take a brief look into the future. Thomas, theres a lot of talk about the urgency of this country offensive to be successful. Whatever that means, by the time the winter starts in europe, do you think thats gonna happen . Well, we have to see when winter comes and before that we have a month period which its any movement on the battlefield extremely difficult. But its general been pointed out in the beginning, we talking about the multi dimensional offensive. We are focusing too much on the little territorial gains. So everybody looks at how many villages have been taken or re taken, or whatever. Thats the point. The point is, whats the overall picture . Watson, logistic lines about the headquarters. What the company cations. What the movement of the black sea fleet and all these things. And i think im on or on the front line, on the, on the different front lines. And then certain villages, yes, this will be a problem. But the overall offensive go on. General ben, do you agree on that . Do you think your credit is not really running out of time a so many people say, i do agree with thomas on this. Look, this is the year 2023. So we used to in the old days and the 18th and 19th century armies would go into Winter Quarters because they depended on horses and oxen to pull wagons and artillery. And so they could only do campaigns when you had gras available when theres no grass available. Because when are they going to where porters . Now in 2023 of course we can go around the clock every day. But it is a fact that this part of ukraine disorder, when its where is a very nasty type of mode, so it will restrict some ground movement, but ukrainians know they cannot. They cannot hesitate at all. They cannot give the russians one day to try and strengthen defenses or re, grew resupplied, rebuild their formations. So i anticipate that they will maintain pressure using a multi dimensional, multi domain approach and not give the russians any chance. Well see how that goes. So thats all the time we have for this edition up to the point. Thank you to all 3 of you and especially for you for watching. Remember that he can always watch our youtube videos as well. Just look for d, w, use and the current to the point. So ill see you next time. Thank you. Good by the, the, the shift your god to life. And it did to, to you know, all the latest online trend, navigate your way through the digital jungle, get a global perspective. Well be your guide and show you whats possible. You decide what really message to you coming up on dw henchmen for the kremlin. And for hire the mercenaries of the wagner. The Russian Private army is involved in armed conflicts. And stands accused of numerous war crimes. Whats more, its going this way, or is it most active . Former members tell us what they know. The wagner group. In 15 minutes on d w, not just another day. So much is happening all at once. We take time to understand. This is the day im in thats look at current use events, analyzed by experts and Critical Thinking is weekdays on d w. These places in europe smashing the rank one step into a bold adventure if the treasure map for modern globetrotters describe it as some of us regular bragging sites on youtube and also in the fast fashion as an environmental 9 a clothing graveyard, immature land desert. This is where things wealthy industrial nations no longer need and lightest textile waste gets stranded. Fashion watch now, on youtube model, 700. 00 children are arrested every yeah. Its israel pod line again, tennis to me and mine is the most common reason throwing stones we 2 to form a prison in the army officials. Unicef has accused israel of crimes against humanity is the day starting september 30th on dw, the the this is dw news, and these are our top stories. The long serving Us Democratic senator Dianne Feinstein has died at the age of 19. She was known as a fair vans advocate of liberal causes, like gun control and gender equality, but was also a proud magic lawmaker who could find common grind with republicans. Feinstein was the oldest switching us senator at least 57 people have been killed in twos