A virus spread. Through the. Weekly radio show its called spectrum if you would like. Information on the coronavirus or any other science topic you should really check out our podcast so you can get it wherever you get your podcast you can also find us at. Science. Like an apocalypse a phenomenon around the globe impacting pretty much everyone everywhere at the same time. Robbed us of our freedoms and our daily lives shops restaurants playgrounds schools. Next was prohibited millions of people in their homes for weeks on end. Some say it came at a huge Economic Cost but saved millions of lives. Others suggest the burden was so great actually cost lives. Theres no glory in prevention chief. On the steps taken to slow the spread of the coronavirus medical experts one popular in some places even though they may have saved millions of lives thats the conclusion of a new study in the journal nature in a moment well ask an expert how effective coroutine was lets run the numbers. The lockdowns saved lives thats the finding from Imperial College london researchers there created a model of what would have happened if nothing had been done to contain the pandemic no quarantine no shutdown of public life. They examined several european countries. They didnt look at the infection rate though but the number of deaths which the researchers said was the key measure of effectiveness thats because deaths are reported in roughly the same way across europe infection numbers on the other hand are less certain the reporting systems ferry and follow different standards death numbers are much clearer they are tallied quickly everywhere. Britain can be compared easily with 2 european neighbors italy and germany they are countries with similar sizes and structures how many people would have died if the coronavirus had been left to run its course the numbers the researchers came up with are startling 670000 people would have died in the u. K. And germany that would have been 570000 in italy 500000. The experts emphasize that these are hypothetical values based on mathematical models in the real world people would have taken steps to protect themselves no matter what the government did but it shows that the lockdowns and School Closings had an effect on our still having one without them many more people would have died heres how things have turned out as of last week in britain nearly 43000 patients had died of cope at 19 in italy that was nearly 35000 but in germany there were just under 9000 dead. The Imperial College Scientists Say the british death toll could have been much lower if steps had been taken earlier. Or was. So had when he introduced. The hall so prevention is crucial but Early Intervention may be the key to saving lives. To be escorted is an epidemiologist and director of the institute of Public Health at the hospital here in berlin thank you very much for being on the show again 1st of all. When we look at those numbers britain germany italy old very different scenarios there but what do these numbers actually me. 1st of all one has to understand the underlying proper lation is different so the population size so just looking at the absolute numbers is difficult because the the size of the population these countries are different then obviously also the classification is different so what do you call a patient died from cope with 19 what is the test strategy and so comparing countries is not as easy but broads a picture is very obviously a debt the sort of cheese a difference and the reaction and possibilities of the Healthcare System also differ which may have explained some of these differences what about what it comes to sweden a relatively small country sweeping lock down didnt happen but they had a higher number of deaths. Yes they had a high number of deaths relative to the population size which may indicate that the strategy may not be optimal for sweden but the officials there and the scientists are watching the situation very carefully and trying to to react according to the swedish system what do you think is coming our way as a 2nd lockdown is that conceivable. Its certainly conceivable right now to numbers are arising in several countries dramatically rising and several states for example in the United States after lock down have opened up and now its see a dramatic rise and a substantial burden for the Health Care System so i think at least on the local level a 2nd lockdown is very likely until we have a medication or a vaccine available to treat 19 whats that going to mean though if a 2nd look at it means. It means well 1st of all with 19 happened locally in regions so not in on a on a country as a whole but its always in regions so the lockdown that we had to do in the 1st wave socalled 1st wave affected most li countries so our state levels and hopefully by now we have measures in place that will allow us to if necessary have lockdowns on a more regional more smaller level so just a city or like a village or like a very small region rather than a state or a country thats what i mean and say we hopefully have some measures in place that will allow us to react more flexible but that doesnt mean opening up closing down over and over i mean can that go on forever at some stage were going to have to come to terms with the old reality of living with this disease. Absolutely and the reality is that the virus is still there and were trying to open up and issues of course we have some wonder whether people go outside and if we get to the viruses theyre so wearing mask particularly if you go inside a very very important keeping the distance testing tracing people isolating people who have been tested positive its very important and not all countries are ready to actually conduct these measures thats why the ultimate solution then is unfortunately a lockdown you heard from to be as coach and give me all the gist and director of the institute of Public Health at the shop here in bergen thank you and lets check in with our science correspondent Eric Williams hes been busy researching the answers to your questions on all things correctly. Can someone who has been infected and cured of covert 19 be reinfected. Ive answered this a couple of times over the months but its one of those topics that means regular updates especially in light of a couple of a recently published studies showing that antibody levels are dropping off in a in a pretty big way in a lot of people who had copd at 19 and within 3 months of their infection especially in those who were a cent to mattick now antibody levels it has to be said arent the only factor to play a role in longterm immune response but but still this isnt positive news when it comes to our hopes that getting covert 19 will stop you from getting it again for at least a year or 2. That said over 6 months into the pandemic theres still no clear cut evidence of someone being infected again after having already been through the disease once. How likely is the transmission of influenza on airline flights. To find out how dangerous flying could be potentially in the in the cove at 19 era its a good idea to look back at research in planes that weve done in the past on the spread of viruses like influenza now the w. H. O. Says transmission of infectious pathogens happens mostly between people seated in the same area on the plane so the risk is highest within those few rows but but it concludes that the risk is otherwise no higher than it is on a train or a bus or or in a theatre but i tracked down a medicine a from 2016 and one of the interesting things it had to say was that research on the topic really doesnt always agree and that our data is not really that robust so to be truthful it looks like we still dont know really. Exactly how likely pathogen transmission is on a plane just that it grows more likely the closer you see it to the infected person. What lessons are being learned to prevent the next pandemic how are they being compiled and disseminated. I think there are many lessons to be learned or or maybe really learned from this pandemic one is that we need to be more prepared for when this happens again and sooner or later we know it will another is that transparency and acting fast especially in the early stages of a novel pathogen outbreak is absolutely vital. And fortunately for us humans Lessons Learned often dont necessarily translate into into lessons retained when it comes to compiling and disseminating learned lessons it seems to me that the World Health Organization would be a natural repository but at the same time the mistakes the w. H. O. Has made in the course of this current pandemic have revealed some some pretty deep flaws in my opinion the Organization Needs reforms that not only give it a clearer mandate but that also give it the means to carry that mandate out because next time we really have to do a better job at coordinating an international response. Finally there are numerous witnesses to come out of the crisis in australia for example it is 90 year old cookbook its always been a staple in tasmania but as the lock down so many people develop a love of cooking and baking it propelled the central cocreate book on to best. Lists its also gaining in popularity abroad with its no nonsense westbrooks. But theyve got to rescue north of austin by. I stab you a local scene its not the 1st. Tonight your. Limited number of women can now return to the lovely holiday island. To join the band and the thing is different. And each club 6 the party seems to be over. The thing is like a laboratory. And what the locals say when the germans come to visit the sunken spawn into a. Long building. Is for me to. Use for. Beethoven. Beethoven is for. Beethoven it is for everyone. Beethoven 2020. The 50th anniversary here on d w. My 1st vice like mosul sewing machine. Where i come from women are bones by this notion for women something as simple as learning how to write a bicycle it isnt. Since i was in little girl i wanted to have a bicycle off my home and it took me years to and. Finally gave up and went on buying young bicycles but returned because the soil machine sewing i suppose was more appropriate for girls than riding a bike and now i want to reach out to bore small and back home flood zones by venting and social norms and inform them of old dead basics like. My name is the about of people and a war adds. To. The. Hello in a warm welcome to focus on europe im peter cup and thanks for joining us these days were all longing for life to get back to normal while we are gradually moving towards normality in europe the impact of the covered 19 crisis is becoming more and more visible especially when it comes to Domestic Violence millions of women have been physically abuse
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