To the money sparked further escalation the Collateral Damage following simply killing was immediate and extensive Iraqs Parliament demanded foreign troops leave the country a departure that could threaten the fight against Islamic State and iran announced that it would no longer be bound by key provisions of the 2015 Nuclear Agreement trump versus iran on the brink of war. And please shut up. And its a pleasure to welcome our guests to discuss that question Matthew Carney chick is chief europe correspondent for politico and she says President Trump has restored a modicum of order to the middle east by making it clear to irans leadership that it cannot act with impunity. And its a pleasure to welcome our. Hes a german iranian political scientist working with the Brookings Institution in doha and he says so the moneys killing was a major blow to the Islamic Republic and it has opened pandoras box leaving the middle east in uncharted territory and were very glad to have andrea Claudia Huffman with us she is a middle east expert from the german weekly magazine focused and she says killing general so the money has harmed u. S. Interests in the region and instead helped the Iranian Regime. So let me begin by asking all of you please to say just very briefly whether you think what were seeing now also following the speech on wednesday by u. S. President trump is a real hiatus in the saber rattling or a temporary respite let me start with you matthew i think it probably is a real hiatus in terms of the big strikes the big public strikes with you know the u. S. Taking out a prominent general and then the iranians responding directly where there was no question about who was responsible that said i would be surprised if we see a secession on the iranian side of these attacks through proxies in the region which weve seen for years and i expect that will continue in the coming months how do you see it well i think after the killing of the box was wide open but now after the socalled revenge attack of the iranians it has been a bit more closed but that doesnt mean the things going to calm down totally i think were going to see a lot of also from the iranian side also in view of elevating the leverage in view of possible negotiations with the United States that is in the realm of possibilities according to would also trump. Well i think disagree today is less dramatic than it was yesterday which is good but as we have different players inside. Each field we might not be sure that this is not going to wrap up again thank you very much to dive a bit deeper on all of those points let us now take a look at who custom saw the money was and why his killing has provoked such outrage in iran. Next to supreme leader. He was the most important man in iran he pulled the strings in the background his mission to extend irans influence in the region and to irritate the enemy the usa. His tool. Iran special forces. Operations. The entire middle east spiders are believed to have killed hundreds of u. S. Soldiers lately the brigades were in action fighting against syrian rebels. As well as supporting. Irans supreme leader. Of the revolution and has called his killing by the u. S. Their greatest strategic mistake. For the us leadership is a terrorist his assassination an act of selfdefense the fronts of hardened like never before. So i. Referred to the retaliatory strike by iran. In the face that seems fairly moderate nobody was killed through the attacks on the basis in view of the fact that you say the killing of their money was a major blow for iran so let me ask you to say once again whether you think iran is really ready to stand out as President Trump said yesterday wont there be pressure from iranian hardliners at least for other additional retaliatory measures well. What the iranians call hard was precisely for. Those hard line elements in iran who were calling for a swift and severe response to the killing. But the iranians know fully well that they cannot afford. A full blown war with the United States that might jeopardize their regime survival so this is why the attacks that we had on the iraqi base housing u. S. Troops in from the iranian side was well calibrated in order to avoid civilian or any kind of casualties that my dad would have potentially triggered an escalation that would have been you know unpredictable iran often tends to rely on attacks by its proxies by militia who take their direction from tehran do you think were likely to see attacks by them in the coming weeks and months deaths possible because the iranians have also signaled before the delete a recent revenge act theyve signaled to their proxies that they dont want the progs to act on their own because as i said this wouldve opened you know you know potential routes toward escalation that iran didnt want so they did took matters into their into their own hand and did what they did. So but with. In terms of these long republican losing or have you know having a major blow with the killing of silly money iran has lost its main man in the region was the court he made in force was directing Iranian Foreign policy in the region and its such destructuring force of Iranian Foreign policy has now disappeared now that there is some reorganization of Iranian Foreign policy in the region and there is you know there are some of course risks in terms of people or groups who might act on their own. So matthew you said in your Opening Statement that the killing of sell the money restores order till the mid to the middle east in fuck of order. In fact both president george w. Bush and president obama decided not to take out some of the money precisely because they feared it would unleash disorder and if we look at the justification that was provided yesterday to the us congress by by the president and by the Trump Administration it departs pretty far from the International Law standard about when such a preemptive killing in selfdefense might be justified is that really the way to restore order but its worth remembering that george w. Bush also decided to go to war in iraq so im not sure that that his judgment you know should should should be the standard in fact doesnt this remind us in a way of all of the arguments that really pins on and destruction not really i think the reason is that if you if you look over the past 6 months theres been a steady escalation on the part of the iranians shooting down the American Drones attacking the saudi refinery over the summer. And you know i think the United States response to that in the view of many in the u. S. Even many republicans even was was a little bit too soft i mean if people might remember that at one point trump scrambled jets to go and retaliate for it for the downing of the drones and then at the last minute he decided not to do it and called and called them back because he thought that the desert might result from a u. S. Strike would not be commensurate with the downing of the drones or with attack on the on the refinery so i think what weve seen here is a situation where they are anyas kept pushing the envelope and thinking ok well if hes not going to respond to trump has been on the record saying he wants to pull the us out of the middle east he wants to get out of iraq he wants to get out of afghanistan he doesnt want to use you know forever wars these endless wars as some people call them. So i think what that what that led to is the situation where the iranians kept provoking a broking and so the money certainly was the architect of the strategy but i think its worth remembering that the u. S. Has been kind of a soft war sometimes hard war with iran since 1979 and i think what this attack does is say look you know im unpredictable from tribes perspective you know you think you know what im going to do but you dont and you know some people said its the sort of im crazy or the new strategy and i think that that has restored a sense of ok you know there are red lines and the red line was always going to be the killing of an american which happened in the lead up to this attack and the siege of the u. S. Embassy in iraq by iranian proxies and that i think reminded a lot of people in washington probably trump certainly whos of a generation that remembers you know the taking of the u. S. Embassy in toronto so i think this is all kind of led us to this to this point. If we stay with the idea of order and disorder isnt predictability a very crucial aspect of order and do you see any clear predictable strategy from the u. S. Side here in the actions if we if we look back over all the different events that matthews just listed. No i dont i think. Just like. There are different people within the u. S. Government wanting fun following up different strategies and its not very coherent and. We have the people that would like to see a regime change in iran we have the people who were in favor of the j p c o a. Between iran and 5 permanent members of the Security Council plus germany to stay to essentially. Contained Irans Nuclear aspirations exactly we have a president who is constantly changing his mind and is not very predictable at all. Weve seen that in syria you just mentioned. Did tack that was cancelled in the last minute so no with. Its pretty erratic you say your Opening Statement that you think if anything the killing of so the money would advance irans interests in the region rather than the us why is that not as i said. Its against the us interests in the region when i look at iraq and see how the rocky parliament has voted against american troops that is against american interests and breach region and thats why i think the killing of money was not a very you wise thing to do on american side i think it helped the Iranian Regime in the sense that. They had a lot of problems was internal talk turmoil and in the last weeks and months you know we saw we saw the protests on the streets and they were continuing and now we have a mental the population is concerned about Something Else and thats the threat from outside and so. In iran and their leadership has contained this. This under us and thats why why its favoring. The government only all of the iranian leaders who have spoken since the u. S. Targeted killing of so the money have said basically there is 1. 00 central thing they want and that is for the u. S. To get out of the region is that more likely to happen now. Well im not sure because the although. Certainly one could argue that its. Not. Been to the benefit of u. S. Interests in the region but the vote by the Iraqi Parliament to call for the expulsion of all foreign troops is nonbinding and it has been voted by a. Shia Majority Parliament and a session the word the sunnis and kurds work by cutting so this kind of shia government has you know is very close to iran so it was using the momentum. Of this killing to fan the flames of antiamericanism. Also to divert attention from the Popular Uprising that weve seen in iraq that has been quite huge since october so this is a very you know cynical game so in terms of but but of course theres a lot of pressure now whether the u. S. You know or what will happen with the u. S. Troop presence in iraq but if the u. S. Withdraws you know in terms of the balance of power logically discount to play into the hands of the iranians and its longstanding iranian interests for many many years since the revolution that they called both socalled moderates and hardliners or for the withdrawal of the of the u. S. Military presence from the region and certainly theres a paradox if thats what im on here everybody wanted it he wanted the us out of iraq you know that he was a veteran of the iran iraq war and thats his big thing that iran should dominate iran and the u. S. Should be kicked out so i dont need iraq yet. Matthew many people would say well this is one area where trump interests may be converge with those of the iranians trump has said again and again he wants to take the u. S. Out of the endless foreign wars particularly in the middle east he wants to pull back troops he unilaterally pulled troops out of Northern Syria to the great distress for instance of a european and kurdish allies so could we possibly see in fact the u. S. Essentially handing over the middle east to iran and russia. Well i think i think a lot of americans we would be happy for that to happen quite frankly i mean given all of the resources that the United States is put into these wars over the past 2020 plus years i mean i do think its interesting that a lot of people say oh well this was you know so the mahdis grand plan all the time and the underlying assumption there is this his grand plan you know this military genius this is been such a success but it actually hasnt been a success its been a complete disaster i mean iran is involved in every major conflict in the region now none of the other countries theyre supported even in iraq where there are large you know shia militias there and shia population obviously people were out in the streets before this the shia population was out in the streets protesting iranian influence so you could also argue well you know let them have it you know good luck to iran running iraq if the United States leaves and i would also add the United States only has 5000. 00 troops left in iraq right now the u. S. Had pulled them out before put them in to fight isis so which is a sunni which is a Sunni Movement obviously so you know if iran which is completely you know under pressure economically now wants to go into iraq and fight isis alone without the support of you know western powers like the United States well you know more and more power to them i think is what a lot of people in washington would say. Interestingly enough matthew just talked about iraqis protesting iranian influence while in fact many iranians have out on but out on the street in the fall protesting their hard line government now were seeing them all apparently united in anger against the u. S. And in mourning for so money have we succeeded in fact in painting that resistance to the very regime that many people in the u. S. Administration would like to overturn let me briefly Say Something about the iraq issue i think both in there was there can be no illusion whatsoever that in iraq both the United States and iran are deeply unpopular and are considered to be malign Foreign Forces i mean after. The u. S. Has initiated 2003 invasion that has cost the lives of hundreds of thousands of hundreds of thousands of lives all over iraq so this is something that is of course you know still there and more recently weve seen the malign influences of iran through the proxies when it comes to the Iranian Protest Movement that has been unprecedented in the. Were according to authorities figures only 2 you know 200000 people were out in the streets with the most important protests since the revolution in iran i think these structural grievances that have fueled the protests both socio Political Associates anomic and political are still there theyre under the surface so with so we cannot you know we should not be diverted from this kind of hired by around the images of massive funerals. All of a sudden everything has change in iran there is National Unity and everything is going to be you know fine i think sooner or later were going to see the reemergence of those popular protests because of the existing ongoing grievances of the of the iranian so this particular moment overshadows also a lot of realities in iran those grievances of course among other things reflect distress in iran over the Economic Situation let us now take a look at one sound bite from the speech that donald trump gave on wednesday in which he said that his government will impose new and even tougher sanctions on iran iran must abandon its Nuclear Ambitions and its support for terrorism the time has come for the United Kingdom germany france russia and china to recognize this reality they must now break away from the remnants of the iran deal or j. C. Peel way and we must all Work Together toward making a deal with the rain that makes the world a safer and more peaceful place. Andrea what we got in yesterdays speech from President Trump was basically an ultimatum not only to iran but also to europe how are the european parties including germany to the iran agreement likely to react to this hes basically saying the old deal is dead long live a new deal do you see a real path forward to get that kind of a deal and what what would the european role be well its a 3rd trump recipe right. You know do you go and try to fix a new one put the trump label on it he did that with nafta i have my doubt its going to work with iran i was europe because the. Iranians have experienced that. The u. S. Might not be trusted theyre very reluctant and europe has seen now that. The points of view are very far apart and theyre pretty upset about that. I dont know if if i was the rhinos and i should give them some advice i would vote for a photo op with an a and trump and then maybe he would be its nice to them as he was with north koreans. I dont think this is going to happen after they killed sort of money which was which was a close protege and close advisor to harmonies so does not going to happen before top story. Has been the reaction to the speech we heard trump say hes going to double down on economic sanctions certainly the iranians have said again and again they are only sticking with the nuclear deal if they get the economic benefits that were promised to them so is there any chance of a new deal well i mean hopefully this latest tree and macabre as collation we weve been witnessing is going to you know put you know put the realisation on both fronts that the only way forward is a diplomatic. Solution. May be hopefully were going to see some momentum for the prospect of secret talks between the United States and iran going forward. It cannot be public because it would you know this is not something that the iranians would feel comfortable after the killing of saloon money to engage in but the iranians have to do something about the sanctions that are there is really you know destroying the economy. Have huge economic difficulties so they have to do something about the sanctions and what may be an opener for such talks. Trump said he would double down on economic sanctions do you really see anything new in what hes offering will it work to only hit iran with sticks or dont we need to feel carrots to possibly get a new deal you know i think the reality is that the existing sanctions are so severe that theres really not much more than the u. S. And that the west can do so i think that was largely symbolic i think the message he was standing was you know im not going to escalate now if you dont escalate and Everything Else was sort of you know a face to face saving exercise that said i think that its clear and has been clear to the europeans if you if you speak to them off the record that the Iranian Nuclear deal was was dead anyway died the moment that the United States pulled out of its know what theyre saying this way is not what theyre saying publicly but i think that you know its functionally not working iran also said this week that it was pulling out of the deal that it wasnt going to get here any more to the constraints around the bridgeman of uranium and cited for leaving inspectors in the country for now for now and this is you know the europeans always kind of hold hope you know that these but on the ground in terms of you know if you look at what iran is done in the region since 2015 its difficult to say he was the architect of the strata. Is difficult to say that the deal was really working and i think that in the last you know the europeans you know the french french president francois mccall rather has been very active in trying to act as a mediator here and lets the europeans can somehow convince the iranians to come to the table perhaps in secret talks or in some other way and to make real concessions in terms of the Nuclear Program because that at the end of the day is what this is really about i dont think that youre going to see much much change here unless the domestic pressure in iran really starts to to threaten the regime under another thing that trump said is that he will be talking to the nato leadership he pointed out the u. S. Is no longer dependent on energy from the middle east and that maybe its time for nato to get more involved can you see that happening. I think were talking about money there. So this is a way to. Put pressure on nato and its members. Because hey he wants of them and i just told half more financial burden there but i do not see that happening and the situation at all oh if i could just take us briefly back to our title and we have about 30 seconds on the brink of war is the question we asked what do you think. I think the chances of a war are much higher than in the past few years but neither the United States nor iran want a full blown war so hopefully there this provides for some avenue for a hopefully less militaristic outcome thanks to all of you for being with us and thanks to you out there for tuning in see you soon. But look. I was. Actually around meter just shows numbers Chuck Schumer a. New magazine for. Some of. The smart way to go where you should. Read. 90 minutes on w. D 2 you know that 77 percent obamacare are younger than 6 oclock. Thats me and me and you. And you know what time low voice is part. Of the 77 percent speech talk about the easy stuff. This is where because of. The 77 percent this weekend on d w. L. And the folks that are the Rapid Movement of. The us that. Al gores 1st. Yes. And ive told them. I will probably. Vote for. Them i want. Well were arming. Them with. What i meant. Was this. That. This is the tip being used live from berlin washington unveils new sanctions against iran. Top u. S. Officials say theyre targeting iranian industry and 8 senior individuals who they say were involved in an Iranian Missile strike against american troops in iraq plus feet also on the program. Runs a Civil Aviation chief denies west
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