Nationalist b j p Party Instead aims to change the demographics of kashmir tensions are running high and there has been talk of war. So question on quadriga this week is kashmir crisis new era all power grab and to discuss not question im joined here in the studio by christiane the wagner a senior fellow with the German Institute for international and Security Affairs specializing on south asia he says a lasting solution to the kashmir question will only be possible if there are no for the changes in the region also with this is torture violence shows there gilani p. T. W. Other desk who believes that once the curfew is lifted the situation in kashmir can boil over and lead to violence found a very warm welcome to 2 another 3 ws regional experts and shatila from a hindi desk edition argues that the process of economic. In the region cannot take place without including the local people and feeling very insecure all about their future. Thank you all 3 for being here today wonderful another speaking if you issue a fundamental question why is kashmir so important to india. This is a report of a famous saying. A poem actually says if theres better days on earth its here its here its here and that was written in the 13th century even the 21st century now but the emotion still remains the same so me more than just a territory is an emotion for both india and pakistan and since 947 we havent left it its an emotion in such a manner that if i talk about my generation weve grown up watching is obsolete essential to the indian identity its essential to what india and pakistan so i would say for my generation weve grown up watching movies very celebrated for and weve taken a lot of pride in the fact that weve beaten pakistan and war for us is equal and of a cricket match that you have to even if you dont care that people are dying there and now its the same sentiment that you see after the article 370 was revoked if you look at the language in social media if you look at the trends on twitter its sad in a way that people of kashmir were never asked what they wanted but the rest of the country is really celebrating because its so much important to their identity that finally we have it. Turning the question around why is kashmir so important to pakistan. But for pakistan it has been an undeserved issue from the time of partition when both boxed on an india created in 1907 august on has shaped its Foreign Policy around the issue of kashmir it has had you know at least 2 direct wars with india and another military conflict in 1909 and cargo. Has been central to Pakistans National security paradigm it has prevented both india and pakistan to become friends who have normal relations and for pakistanis it is an emotive issue because they genuinely believe that kashmiris are being oppressed by the indian army. For a long time pakistan was supporting. By arming them. But theres also this genuine believe that midis are muslims they identify with us given a choice theyve joined pakistan and studies believe that that choice was always denied by india so i went to a Christian Wagner has to say about all this i was talking to and an indian commentator here in berlin this week and she told me that things will never be the same after recent events the events of the last 2 weeks or so is that an estimation you share of the gravity of the crisis of the moment yes i would say things have changed fundamentally also i would argue that i see the changes more in the context of the indian or just democratic system because the decision of the Modi Government to really focus special status has far reaching implications not only for kashmir yes but also on the debate in india on federalism in the way how this change has been done and with regard to the ongoing debate on secularism in india from the International Side on the Foreign Policy side in just position has changed. So they still see me as a bilateral issue with pakistan but as we have seen over the last couple of years the Indian Government is not interested to go into any formal for negotiation with pakistan on any issue and not. On this issue especially if you are not a few. Yeah i totally agree to him we do not see that although india has been saying that its about electoral issue and we have to talk to pakistan and only then we can solve it but after this after walking out to go 370. 35 now theres not going to be any discussion and that is very clear and that belongs to this not it of that not in the mood he gave even before he was elected in 2014 that he is there to bring about changes. The narrative was that nothing has happened in the last 70 Years Congress was there and never did anything india is there it was a 947 and here comes the savior here comes the man who is going to change everything and thats a big change he would of course take credit for that nobody is none other government ever managed to do something as big as this and they found out loopholes they found out the legalities and they did it which nobody had talked about it came as a surprise to most interestingly talk rather merits of or have mr moti came out and said that this week he said we as a nation as a family have taken an historic decision thats pretty telling language talking about the nation as a family it sounds there are real issues there about inclusive and exclusive but you know the indian opposition leaders have called it a historical blunder. As christine was saying there are serious concerns in india in the manner in which are just done for example lets kind of break it down you know what has been done so one of the laws which has existed or all these years. Give protection to native population in kashmir in terms of Property Rights and zones of thought that has been scrapped and thats not unique to kashmir there are other Indian States where it exists like. There are current job and that existed because theres a particular dynamics there and the government wanted to protect that thats gone now and the biggest fear is. That hindu pundits who had to leave. You know 2 decades ago will now be resettled and essentially the biggest fear is that the majority will now turn into minority. And this is political and social engineering and that more the more Prime Minister modi will not stop there if he can get away with this one he will then focus on other parts of india where you know there are certain tendencies so for india internally its true absolutely right that the majority is celebrating because not in the movie is popular popular populist nationalist. Yet there are worries in among journalists among opposition leaders among civil rights leaders that this could lead in the not in the long run unraveling of indias secular liberal inclusive character a lot of nothing going on here but i thought we were going to talk about the future obviously lets just go a little bit back in time the kashmir conflict is of course been raging for decades lets go back to the time when it started. The mountainous region of kashmir has long been home to hindus when it began to be islamist in the 13th century that something hindu nationalists have never accepted for them kashmir is the land of the hindu goddess saraswati. The conflict over kashmir began in 1947 at the end of British Colonial rule india and pakistan both claimed the region as their own triggering their 1st war for control of muslim majority. After the war ended in 1948 kashmir was divided between india and pakistan the line of control has never officially been recognised as the border. Pakistan has more or less openly supported muslim separatists in kashmir ever since thats led to 3 more wars numerous outbreaks of violence. And terror attacks like the one on the Indian Parliament in delhi in 2001. And the mom by attacks of 2008. The stakes are higher than ever now that both india and pakistan a nuclear state. Has kashmir lost its autonomy for good. Reason to the question. Has it gone it seems that way specially because if you look at the world reaction to. Hardly any major world capital. Has condemned it in. August on essentially was caught by surprise that the Prime Minister of india can actually go ahead and do this i mean weve known all along that it was part of the party manifesto. Or it was their desire for last 50 years but that actually he will do it and now that its done box down is struggling to find out how it can react because now india is saying this is our internal matter and the reaction has been described as subdued what is going on below the surface in pakistan. And. Listen i mean there are secessionist tendencies in many other parts of the world right we know for example catalonia and in spain the scottish want to be separate from you go back canada when you do it without involving the population in question theres always a fear that it will backfire for me right now is a dormant volcano we dont know how angry kashmiris are because theres a complete shutdown no internet no television no media theres go few for last 10 days if and when the curfew is lifted and it will have to be lifted right. We will find out you know how upset are but that this leads to violence or the government will divide and rule they will you know theyll get some politicians on its side and. Take it from there. But i am i am fearful i mean i am concerned the world doesnt appreciate it at the moment but if this goes into violence and if bogs down and india are back on the brink of war and do nuclear omniscient then the world will have to take notice. And i hope it doesnt come down to i mean were unsure india is being described as treating kashmir is a colony of being a fully fledged Occupying Force of being the master of a prison how do indians he respond to those kind of accusations by indians you mean the indian masses of them and yeah the masses as i said been the beginning its a huge emotion people are celebrating everywhere other than kashmir and if i may just go back to the map that youve shown now the see this huge jail to be there left inside pakistan right inside china has a little part and internationally when we talk about did we think that the whole part discussion me bit as there is a bifurcation there you have me do you have general you have learned a lot that being the smallest which is going to be a Union Territory now and there are only about 300000 People Living there. Who has about 6000000 and actually has 8000000 if im not wrong so basically just one it forms the major chunk of doctors by the most of the world this general has the hindu population kashmir has muslims so the whole conflict is about this is where the Muslim Population resides that is there there is the sentiment of we do not belong to india or even not being asked and if youre asking about what the government is talking about if you see how this whole. Event is being covered right now there are 2 very different narratives the International Media is showing that that are. Showing that there are protests there are people coming out in the street the indian media is showing that there are celebrating because they are going to get is going to going to people there so obviously that things are happening so we have to consider. As a whole and then look at the picture. Many. Muslims now in kashmir who are fearing that there will be an influx of hindus changing the demographics of the of the region is not likely is not on the cards is i think this is certainly part of the strategy of the government in the mid to long term perspective to change the demographic scenario because with the evolution of. Special status of kashmir it will become possible for people from me from other parts of india to go to me and to buy land also for companies to invest so we will see and this is also part of the strategy that will be in best the summit of the Indian Government on kashmir in october and of course the government has also. Has seen it has provided a Legislative Assembly to do you need to do Union Territory of jungle and kashmir so we may also see early elections or we may see elections probably in the next year and then it will be difficult for the muslim parties so far that they will participate or not if they boycott the elections then the majority of these new Legislative Assembly will be mostly hindus from hindu parties and one should also not forget the b. G. P. Already had a strong position in this part of kashmir in the last election day we had 23 percent of the waltz so i think in the long term perspective the idea is to do. Fundamentally change the political. Consolations one aspect is also that all the leaders of the major parties in the existing parties in because me has been put under house arrest which also shows and you say fundamentally changing when you talk about people being put under house arrest that cant go on forever more there has to be a resolution to the situation yes if i guess other than yes the resolution will be new elections resolutions will be does new institutional set up of the Union Territory which much more limited competence is compared to in a state of union territories. Are administered by the whole ministry so it shows that they will have much less space yes and the political solution is to implement some form of democratic representation which will be done with new elections but the protests will go on yes i dont think new elections will solve anything in all likelihood. Muslim politicians will boycott it because they feel they have not been consulted in any of this india has used its might to press ahead with this and if they do by court which is most likely as you said. The Prime Ministers Party Party Party will form a government but it will be seen as a puppet government not representing the sentiment. And it will it will not solve anything weve seen this before in kashmir you know brought india politicians like Mehbooba Mufti like omar abdullah. Who were brought into government who formed government but they never really represented the will of the kashmiri people and now those politicians are siding with those who are are deeply upset with india are anti india now and to me back to the whole issue the whole talks issue of demographics i will i saw a quote from one elderly kashmiri woman the other day she said its clear that mr modi wants kashmir but not kashmiri people is that faithless or is that those that read that is the saddest part about kashmir that neither pakistan or india have really cared about the kashmiri people for the 2 governments its a territory that they have been fighting over i am i have reported from the kashmiri line of control from the pakistani side i have seen and ive met families who live in perpetual terror in perpetual fear of crossfire and in so many lives have been lost so many lives shattered divided. And what baffles me. The world doesnt care i mean you know were sitting in berlin were discussing a christian is from a reputable think that i want to know how come nobodys bothered about this. And village but it have to be brought to a brink of a nuclear war for people to sit up and say all we can go to take care of this it is a feeling of remarkable why is the International Community looking the other way the International Community is looking the other way probably because they say its a bilateral issue. This is the problem that. United nations resolutions from the 940 s. And fiftys have lost. Out of various reasons. Most obvious one is that since the fiftys china is also part of this problem 2nd point would be that we didnt catch me at least on the indian side there has also been a strong Independence Movement on the. Kashmiris now the Independence Movement is not covered by the un resolutions so it would be difficult besides some other technical issues. To make some form of a referendum probably the most Important Movement and this is normally an Independence Movement which we know it from other parts of the world is not represented so in that sense 11 can understand the position of the International Community and this has also been by very close allies of pakistan even china has always good at least you have a problem because india yes but solve it on a bilateral level we have seen these bilateral negotiations the most important one was probably in 2007 when the solution was there yes so this is why the International Community says you have a problem you solve it on Bilateral Dialogue at the moment the Indian Government is not willing to go into any negotiations with india and pakistan and i do not see it coming ok i just break out for a 2nd there in the 2 figures of the center of this ongoing crisis are the heads of government in pakistan and india 2 politicians who could hardly be more different. Why did i did run into. Prime minister Narendra Modi indias fervent hindu nationalist. Hes revoked articles 370. 35 a which guaranteed special status and autonomy from indias constitution. Modi thinks this will bring him a step closer to his goal of a stablish in india as the 2nd major power in asia alongside china. I gotta go 370. 35 i gave general and kashmir nothing but terrorism separatism dynastic system and corruption are. P. C. Across the border pakistani Prime Minister imran khan a former cricketer and playboy whos been married 3 times once a fixture of londons high society he became a devout muslim and politician later in life he now espouses conservative even extremist views. It is it can be possible that they attack us and we dont respond what will happen next things will escalate when both of us keep reacting it could lead to war actually. Modi or can whos got the upper hand in the kashmir conflict. Certainly one interesting question the other question that i have is for christiane if you had the ear of either of the 2 leo both of the 2 leaders ideally have the say we want time what advice would you give the now on the way you want them to push this crisis i think the easiest solution and the best solution would be to settle on the status quo and this is still not ruled out one can already in one can imagine like in 2007 for us explaining yourself that there is fatigue with the status you know there isnt there is there is no disses a debate on the indian side thats thats a debate on the inside between india and pakistan wants can still agree on a solution like having the n. O. C. As a soft border this is not new it depends on the political will on both sides as i said at the moment i do not see the indians willing to negotiate with pakistan but at the end it has not changed the the overall setting for the solution within the existing territorial delimitation and and the status quo is sure your advice your wisdom for the 2 leaders. I think the best way i agree to them and i think the best way would be bilateral talks and one has to solve it like that but coming back to watch as it was saying i dont think that we are the brink of nuclear war i think both of these populist leaders not in the more the and noncon none of them is so naive that they would get into a nuclear war. As far as their statements are concerned the v. M. Run plan has reacted and then the very moody has said that there would be a new chief c. D. S. Was going to look after that defense navy and air force i think these statements you have to make because if you are populist leaders you have to make sure that people are you know listening to you and they are again sharing what they were your thing and so i think my my advice would be that this it together talk and thats that would be out i dont think its happening any time soon i mean the with. The Indian Government is emboldened by lack of reaction from World Community Prime Minister madiba. Push for their own. Word does not take him where does that take us if he pushes for the room full of the biggest worry is that. You can unilaterally take an action and the dog confronting the local population the world sits there silently then then you think you can get away with more and who knows what else he has up his sleeves the problem for pakistan is. Its economy is in trouble. The government is becoming more and more authoritarian. So a lot of people are saying to the pakistani government you need to attend to problems at home youve talked about kashmir for 70 years you failed to liberated and now instead of resorting to funding jihadi elements in kashmir you need to clean up your your own house and so. I mean i think its bleak but no talking. About where mr modi might take this situation im still curious to know what the sort of the worst Case Scenario as well. Because kashmir is a flash point. If things get out of hand and doesnt have the major attack in kashmir india. And india. And thats why i think the tensions will no not know thats what were going to have to leave you would be talking about the kashmir crisis new era old power grab thanks very much indeed for joining us if we give you some food was told to come back next week and so on by by inches. On a tourist works that has spawned many legends hitlers mind can. 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