>> let me give you information from target smart we've been working with nbc news. the percentage of republican-affiliated first-time voters, 40%, is equal to the percentage of democratic first time voters and democratic affiliated first-time voters outpaced the voters so in florida 40% to 30%. themmer son college poll, rick, has a race statistically tied. it may be the poll that the emerson race poll is the one that howard was referring to. do you think beto o'rourke can get the gains. >> texas is trending purple.