Transcripts For CSPAN3 Discussion 20240703

Panel. [applause] welcome. Thank you very much. When mark twain, the humorist and essayist was asked by a reporter about rumors of his failing health, twain famously answered, reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated and i think that nato officials can certainly empathize with twains reaction because over the past 75 years nato has had to navigate many serious tensions among its members. Some of these were rooted in differences inside nato, about, for example, Nuclear Strategy, the Alliance Structure and its operations and others flowed from disagreements over policies of or actions by one or more allies outside in regions or on issues outside of natos purview and just to give you a flavor of some of these not so important disagreements, during the 1950s, the allies were struggling over the questions of german rearmament and the succession into nato was the federal republic. The debate of the implications of a massive what was called the massive retaliation doctrine and that approach to Nuclear Strategy and very sharp divisions among washington, paris and london, during the 1956 suez crisis. The 1960s saw intense debates over the concepts of flexible response and very bitter and long lasting recriminations of frances withdrawal from the integrated military structure. In the 1970s, two nato allies, turkey and greece, nearly went to war over the cypress issue and the euro missiles affair of the 1980s brought to the surface long lasting tensions and disagreements among allied governments. This was fed by Massive Public protest that at times seemed to post an existential threat to the alliance itself. But its important, given that background, its important to keep in mind that ultimately the Alliance Remains strong during and after the cold war because its members did not allow their differences ever to override their enduring shared interests and values and i think interesting values are both important, both are important to nato. Of course, a lost has changed over the last 75 years so the question we have to ask is will the past with prologued and thats why we are going to have a twopart discussion, first sten and suzie will have more to say about the gold war and heidi will reflect on Lessons Learned from natos postcold war experiences and as mentioned out of area operations. Well then turn our attention to the current and future potential challenges facing the alliance and i have the clock here and i intend to reserve hopefully at least 30 minutes for questions from the audience. Let me start with sten. Congratulations on your recent book. As mentioned and it has been mentioned already, during the first two decades of the postcold war period, natos emphasis really did shift largely to Crisis Response and Crisis Management and counterterrorism in area of operations, but russias full scale invasion of 2022 certainly has put deterrents and collective defense back at the center of natos priorities. So kind of looking over the cold war period, how has natos approach to deterrents and collective defense during that cold war period influenced its structure, its assessments and its policies and actions today . Basically, whats changed fundamentally and whats happened . Thank you for that question. And let me, first of all, say what a pleasure it is to be here in georgetown today and to be on this panel with heidi and suzie. Change in continuity, in a way to bracket about 30 years of cooperation and security and say now were back and nato has come home, its collective defense. Its true there are many parallels and one of the parallels i like drawing on is back in the 80s we used to say that the europeans would say youre so lucky, america, you have president reagan, you have bob hope, you have johnny cash and europeans would say we have our heads of government, but we have no hope and no cash. And here we go again. And so there are many parallels, defense forward, reinforcements, group of commissions for the nuclear deterrents. Manage the central front and the flanks, manage the threshold and threats from the adversary, soviet union and russia. And essentially manage escalation. All of this is back, but i would put my emphasis on this continuity. And this has to do with the fact that for those 30 years of Crisis Management and cooperative security, the muscle memory in nato of collective defense went away and four structures became much smaller, much lighter. They were deployed out of area, and then especially to afghanistan, and nato was not set up to defend itself. It was no longer a collective Defense Organization in capacity. Of course, in name, it was. And now that its reinventing that collective defense capacity theyve gone from 16 allies in 1990 to 32. Theres a war going on, which was not the case back then. Theres limited defense. Europeans are waking up to the demands of not only mobilizing for defense in the middle of germany, but further east. The logistical challenge is so much greater and the 30 years of cooperative security with russia meant that in large, nato did not move western forces or military infrastructure eastward. There was nothing there, exis september the of course, the military forces of the new allies, limited as it was, all of that has to be invented. And theres a very poor connection between conventional defense today and Nuclear Deterrence. It was a weapon of last resort and Strategic Thinking during the cold war where you had, again, a theory of escalation that may have been imperfect and controversial, but at least, it was a coherent theory. Today, there is really no theory and theyre having to invent that as we heard ambassador smith say in slightly different words. All of this has to happen in an alliance thats more complex, not only 32 allies, but theres so much else going on the alliance. Theres the southern flank, which is about terrorism, and if anything has caused a lot of headache in nato in the 2010s, its really not crimea in 2014 annexation, its the civil war in syria and how that estranged turkey, the u. S. And france and left president macron to say that nato had become brain dead. That that was syria, that was not russia. So the southern flank is a lot more than during the cold war and then on top of that, china now in the strategic concept answer again, we heard ambassador smith say that, emphasize this, and the need, therefore, to develop partnerships with the key u. S. Allies in the indopacific. And that was a frame work around u. S. Allies and elsewhere. All of this at a time when russia is conducting major war in europe. So the complexity compared to the cold war is much greater. The muscle memory is low to nonexistent and the need for leadership is therefore, much greater. And when i say leadership, i dont just mean in the high pace of summit that nato has come to depend on. I think theres a limited amount of leadership in those summits. When i say leadership, i mean clear priorities for how nato is going to manage this very complex agenda. It cannot address all of these issues and say, now, thats leadership. It has to prioritize. And thats a work in progress. Well, you mentioned the nuclear subject and let me turn to suzie. Nato, of course, does not own Nuclear Weapons. Its the weapons of the three Nuclear Allies, the United States, france, and the u. K. That formed the basis for the nato strategy. The goals of natos early Nuclear Policy which were to deter aggression and Nuclear Allies did not fundamentally change during the cold war, but the strategic balance has changed during that time and nato had to make important, sometimes very painful adjustments. Youve chronicled some of these in your excellent book which id recommend to our audience here under your missile saga of the 1970s and the 1980s. Its a long and complicated subject, but id like to ask you if you could describe the key considerations, that shaped natos Nuclear Posture and its policies during the cold war, and how those have evolved during the first 20 years or so of the post cold war period. Yeah, its so when you think about natos Nuclear Posture, and we start from these two principles. The core objectives on one hand of deturing aggression in the north act streety area and then as a compliment to that, providing reassurance to each and every significant tri of the treaty regardless of their size or geographic location and when we put it in those terms, its simple, except that the geography of the treaty area is hard to defend. Now, what those two components mean in deterring aggression and providing reassurance change and evolve over time. In part thats because the landscape changes. You have changes in Nuclear Weapons technology, and capabilities as well as in the threat perception particularly of the soviet union and then of course its core success of the Russian Federation after 1991. And so the alliance as in so many places needs to adapt. There are a few different areas or in key themes we might pull out in natos Nuclear Posture over the years. The first being changes in doctrine and strategy here so at the time of the signing of the north atlantic treaty in april 1949 the United States is the only Nuclear Power on the planet. That changes only a few months later when the soviet union detonates its first atomic weapon and, of course, thats a very different landscape if you think about how you deter aggression or provide reassurance than ones with the use nuclear met. By the early 1950s nato decided to rely heavily on Nuclear Weapons including stationing u. S. Battlefield weapons in europe and relied on a strategy leo refer to of retaliation. Essential you going to go from zero to 60 very quickly. Throughout the the 1950s, te 1960s the viability of that massive retaliation strategy was heavily debated and contested as many allies wondered whether the changing strategic balance between the soviet union and the United States, the change of weaponry meant that massive retaliation would really protect them. By 1967 the lights had adopted a new strategy of flexible response based on the principles of escalation. They use all these hokey metaphors to describe it, a ladder with various wrongs, a chain with various links connecting it. My favorite british system, a a robe, seamless robe of deterrence. There were no snags within it. At the end of the cold war, the alliances Nuclear Posture changed dramatically and was considerably reduced given changes in the overall Threat Prevention cups of significant cuts to Nuclear Weapons at nato across fidgety weaponry down the battlefield weaponry but also a move treaty Nuclear Weapons as weapons of last resort come something that is still lingering in natos Nuclear Posture today. So through all these changes and doctor strategy thats only one piece of the posture puzzle. Another is about reassurance. And reassurance is not easily calculated. It is in the eye of the beholder and everchanging, and data lines of large and unwieldy as nato you have a lot of actors with different perceptions of what will, in fact, reassure them. So natos Nuclear Posture is shaped by a series of proposals, successful and failed over the years to share control and ensure greater input in the alliance about what weapons would be fielded, where they would be deployed and, of course, how and when they might be used. I could point to the atomic stockpile proposals of the late 1950s or the Multilateral Force and Atlantic Nuclear force proposals that failed in the early 1960s. Instead, the alliance decided to great a committee of nuclear piney group, or in pg, which is still with us. And instead move towards other forms of reassurance. So we could take him for example, the station of u. S. Weapons in europe in early 1980s like the contentious the other piece i would like is that arms control has played a central role in natos Nuclear Posture. In large part to signal allies intentions. And often it has relied on a paired approach with their modernize or feel new weapons also propose armscontrol talks alongside that to manage the cost of those deployments. Thats really drawing on a broader principle an ally to thinking that as long roots but was enshrined in the report in 1967, pairing dialogue and defense. And so its this approach that forms the basis of the 1979 dual track decision which calls for the deployment of those i mentioned a second ago. As a concluding note i would say i focused primarily on the cold war. Like because Nuclear Posture so much less than born in the postcold war period. Its centrally the Alliance Receives considerably in the 1990s. I think this something we are grappling with no sort of Nuclear Weapons and nuclear questions, the theory of deterrence is back to work i did forget how much, much of the old cold war context can and should inform the conversations today. We will come back and a second round here about looking ahead to some of the nuclear challenges. Id mentioned this period heidi since the end of the cold war up until arguably two years ago with the russian fullscale invasion of ukraine. Theres been this parentheses were nato is focused are heavily on out of area operations, just remind everyone bostick a complaint in kosovo, serbia and libya, and stabilization and training efforts in afghanistan. One could add training into Iraqi Security forces. Just to remind you, we all suffer a little bit from amnesia here, at its high point the natoled operation in afghanistan included approximately a little bit more than 130,000 military personnel. 90,000 of whom were american, and 40,000 from allies and partners. 30,000 strictly from allies, canada and the europeans. And the were at one time were six of our nato allies that suffered per capita more killed and wounded in action. Not to minimize the contributions and sacrifices of the american forces, but we shouldnt forget that bravery and also the losses were not a monopoly of the United States during this, what was a very long war. I think it is fair to say felt that is operations had mixed results. And you have written a book trying to look at how nato in about trying to learn from these operational experiences. Lets start with the question did the allies even agree on where the mitchard teaching errors . Or what they accomplished through these operations . One of which of course is ongoing and that nato presence in kosovo. Although much reduce since the postwar period. Thank you again for the opportunity to be here to speak. To this point about learning, one of the things that was quite surprising for me in doing the research on learning in nato context was nato actually relative to other International Organizations that are out there does have quite significant institutionalization. You do have a lot of different offices. You have multiple places within the organizations bureaucracy for opportunities to learn here and entire nato lesson process but what a surprise about that was despite of course a Strong Military culture in this Political Military Alliance is that so much of the learning happens in the corridors in the informal spaces, and that there was actually, despite i think interviewed 120 officials across the alliance in act, aco, nato headquarters, et cetera, was that much of that learning was through these Interpersonal Networks and relying heavily on oldtimers, many of whom as weve heard earlier have retired, sten mention come at a rotating out. Oldtimers who are becoming suddenly very important for the knowledge that they have as the socalled cold war warriors. What does that mean . Well, that means that learning still matters. The advantage of having Lessons Learned processes is that it encourages people to think and talk about learning. I think one of the big takeaways is we should maintain these bureaucratic structures, but, unfortunately, we see a large reticence to seek out and read the state. So to answer your question yes, there is consensus. Yes, there have been numerous strategic lessons that have been put out. I think much of the value i would say is in some of the internal documents. I would just that im speaking of my personal capacity since i work for the state department, nato desk at the time of the ukraine war, but that in itself is very important. Having and creating spaces for learning to happen, even though you have extreme time pressure and nato has a quite significant reactive culture to maybe reference what you were mentioning. What are some of those lessons they came away from my research . So first of all when we think about afghanistan in particular, one of the questions that i asked was what do you think in anything all of these officials is a biggest strategical, biggest failure that we should reflect on . And typically this is done before the taliban took over. This is several years back. But the key take away was civilian casualty, that we wod address that the importance of civilian casualties. Whats interesting about that is subsequently weve seen Scholarly Research that is come out to show that on a subnational level scholars have been able to trace how specific incidences of violence against civilians then has translated to higher rates of radicalization in those areas within afghanistan. So certainly we do start from the premise of sabina casualties matter for clear moral reasons. I would say additionally civilian casualties matter for operational effectiveness. And that was something that came out very clearly. I would very much implore anyone is continuing to work on nato today to not forget afghanistan. There had been like us that these Lessons Learned processes pick some of them have been referenced by former assistant secretary general apiece in Atlantic Council joe would encourage industry. If you are interested i would encourage you to read by potential since theres countless, countless quotes of folks talk about his lessons from afghanistan. It also lessens from the libby operation. But that libya another issue is a cigar report. That is something that in interviewed folks very few people had interviewed has looked at those reports. Explained the acronym. Sorry. This is a think stands for special investigator general of afghanistan. Yes. Help me with the our, reports. Summit can fact check the audit. Basically this is, i should probably know, right . Basically this is a special office that is set up for the purpose of oversight of this afghanistan operation segar was specifically part of deity but was meant to have some independence so that it could exit oversight. So the rescinded individuals out of the field and try to do interviews. I interviewed folks myself and frustration that talked about about just getting lost along the way, try to get access to information. Part of three why this is really relevant today is that just because nato spent two decades in afghanistan but also because we think about Security Assistance i were providing for ukraine, when we think about natos continued presence in kosovo, a lot of those mistakes that were made on the ground for things that we can actually translate into these other out of area context. I would just say may be to conclude is that another key take away the came out from natos responding to crises more broadly survive researchers looked at crisis a kind of a broader context that we shouldnt underestimate, we shouldnt underestimate president putins extensive at this point Disinformation Campaign and his broader desire as he stated for reunifying the soviet union. In the interviews i conducted at the time this was sort of shortly after crimea have happen, the annexation of crimea, and many of the new officials were really limiting the fact that russias status as a nato parter had not shifted. That even strategy and thinking towards russia, there was some hesitance to shift that. Maybe that speaks to some other broader issues about cohesion that nato is continued to do to struggle with today. Well, youve given me the perfect opening. I would like to reverse the order now and come back to you, heidi, to pick up on that. Based on your research and some government extremes exe learned, what challenges pose the most Serious Problems do you see Going Forward to natos cohesion . And of which is mention a couple. We have seen indications of democratic backsliding among some of the, small number, but still significant within natos ranks here although nato leaders routinely emphasized the importance of protecting democratic values, whats called the rulesbased international order. Some bit of tension there. According to its strategic concept 2022, its quite interesting language that nato adopted, said nato quote cannot discount the possibility of an attack against our allies sovereignty and territorial integrity. I dont recall seeing that in previous strategic concepts. But the russian disinformation efforts that up and mentioned already a couple of times seem to, and these are aimed at undermining the credibility of article v and seating distrust among the allies and among government and among the public come this campaign seems to have intensified somewhat. And there could be other shocks, external shocks, to go eat in nato, and im thinking possibly some of the fallout from different perspectives on the ongoing conflict in gaza raven the security impacts of Climate Change in gaza. How can the political lines of 32 sovereign and independent countries, what can nato do to better anticipate and tackle such diverse range of threats and some opportunities as well . One advantage of thinking about nato returning to collect a defense is we have really seen an emphasis on those core values. And so i would argue that in the aftermath, in the aftermath of the fullscale invasion of ukraine in 2022, we saw in domestic publics across the alliance solidarity as ambassador smith had referenced, complete support for not just the alliance but for ukraine and the blatant disregard of ukraines sovereignty and territorial integrity. So as a result on that piece i think we continue to see cohesion. On some of those democratic values. But i would argue on this issue of democratic backsliding this has always been an issue. I would say since the origins of the alliance. Its not something new. It doesnt mean we shouldnt take it seriously. We absently should but there have always been struggles in maintaining support for Democratic Institutions absolutely within some of the allies at any given time. What we had seen, when we think about this cohesion around maintaining support for ukraine, at this moment which is such a critical moment, is the concern about this domestic support, right . Making reference to the Public Opinion polls, ambassador smith mention, over the decades there has been strong public support for nato across the alliance. We had seen since 2014 if you look at the Public Opinion polls some partisanship slightly that even among conservatives still see a majority of conservatives here in the United States who are supportive of nato. But the concern links back to the Disinformation Campaign. So once they recently found, it was will get ten different allies and found that one quarter of respondents in those ten allies, including the u. S. , cited nato as a cause of the korean war. And, of course, much of the russian Disinformation Campaign has been focused on linking the ukraine war linking nato to the ukraine and basically trying to focus on nato as like i said as a cause, and enlargement specific as a justification for this fullscale invasion, despite the fact its very important to point out of course that rush itself had sent multiple International Agreements recognizing, acknowledging, legitimizing the sovereignty of ukraine. And so i would think in terms of some of those recommendations of how to confront some of these challenges, i mean at this point i think every highlevel person in nato nato should be talt this issue. I think unfortunately its really been underestimated within the alliance. I think the nato Public Diplomacy division is doing a fantastic job but needs to be more speaking up and really clarifying because there seems to be so much confusion. Ive given several talks, council on Foreign Relations at different venues as i imagine many of the speaker on this panel have done, and there continues to be confusion and misinformation about what nato is, what it does, and how, how this invasion of ukraine fundamentally threatened the broader collective defense that were thinking about in protecting the alliance moving forward. Also really rely relying ag back on those oldtimers, those cold war warriors who have deep expertise, not just in terms of the knowledge that they bring to the table but also just their familiarity i would say with russia, the russian playbook. So thinking about the eastern allies, thinking about finland, these countries have really have that experience and the thinking oh, just because they are small allies acted have something to bring to the table. That is of real value. On some of the other challenges that you as what some of the of the challenges that nato is facing above and be on the clear threat that we are all talking about today russian aggression against other eastern europeans, countries, is the existential threat of Climate Change, something working on right now. A lot of my research is focused on nato adaptation. How neat is changing over time. And so a coauthor of my jackie burns and i interviewed 63 officials from across the lines to try to get a sense that why and how is nato adopting in ways that is to climate threats. I think its important to point out as an existential threat, Climate Change is a threat to deterrents tickets also threat to natos ability to be interoperable. So as was the individual allies that dispose be meeting these put a significant climate targets, they are moving and sometimes Different Directions at adopting different types of technologies. So how does that affect them to go back to the initial question, how does that affect natos ability to be effective in its operations . Can a british tv plug in in estonia, for example . As a start think about bolstering the eastern flank. Our nato defense plans, are these incorporating climate threats . Our old plan sapping climate security, is that in the compass apart of the planning process . Are climate threats part of tabletop exercises . Are they built into wargames . These kind of things. I think theres still this challenge among many folks in the military in particular, this broader resistance to think about climate because of the stereotype of all, climate is kind of a tree hugger type phenomenon when in reality we can see a People Living it every day the ways in which climate threats are compromising the ability of the alliance to really do its job. Thank you. I think we were probably come back to this and i will anticipate a question or so on that issue. Susie, i want come back to the nuclear topic. Of course in response to this increase in Russian Nuclear saber rattling as we call it, at least in part two russian modernization and changes in doctrine and deployments, nato summit declarations have become progressively more, progressively stronger i would say in their language describing the importance of deterrents for all of Nuclear Weapons, the important things like what we call Nuclear Sharing Arrangements within the alliance. Things like that. And allies, the u. S. And allies or do something about it. There are programs now to modernize the dual capable aircraft, diploid why several allies. Older you was gravity bombs in europe are being replaced by more modern reliable, effective weapons. Nato has become more transparent fiscal in its Nuclear Related exercises and its new members finland and sweden are members of the Nuclear Planning group. Looking ahead, do you see a stronger consensus on nato Nuclear Issues of the have on the past . And i mean, we have to be alert to possibilities something good happen to change that consensus. Do you see risks to that consensus as well that we havent mentioned so far . Yeah. I think its clear that Nuclear Weapons remain central to the alliances posture, i do not need me to tell you that. Ambassador smith told you that already this morning. The strategic concept is explicit, that it is the nato defense the deterrents is based on a mix of nuclear, conventional Missile Defense along with adjacent cyber in space capability here but that doesnt get at this question, is it stronger . So i would say certainly in the wake of our in february 2022 we have seen more talk about natos Nuclear Capabilities, more willingness to be explicit in terminology that as long as Nuclear Weapons exist in the world, nato will be a nuclear alliance. That may sound obvious but to even get such clear language is often hard in an Alliance Like nato. But just because the language is more explicit, the historian in me cant help but point out that doesnt mean its stronger, per se. And so i would point to one particular risk area that i see, which is the current consensus around Nuclear Weapons in the place in the lines but around i iolite defense in general is predicated on a fundamental target. Never lies above all on u. S. Leadership, u. S. Capacity, and you was willingness to continue playing that role. It relies on the protection of the u. S. Nuclear umbrella. Editing the diplomatic thing we could say is that not every leader in the alliance of the 31 member countries looks at politicians in washington and assumes that that will last forever here and so that opens up the possibility or potential for proposals for other allies to consider how they might reduce or leave behind their reliance on the United States and on the American Nuclear deterrence. I dont think its a coincidence weve seen talk of proposals that sounds suspiciously like things i write about any archives of 1963, around 19 cigie for as a european sharing scheme both conventional and even occasionally nuclear in nature. So nato is returning to the past, and investing on this old writ of deterrence, but i think any cursory review of natos history during the cold war should be a pointed reminder that that Nuclear Posture was almost always contested. And its because it is not based on firm, easily quantifiable and agreedupon things. Its based primarily on emotions, psychology, perception, confidence, right . What i would bucket together as the studies stuff. And plenty of other issues be on the Nuclear Posture shape, that sense of confidence or whether an ally is reassured. So in the 1970s, Nuclear Debates about whether or not the United States could be trusted or impacted by everything from the conduct of the vietnam war to jimmy carters human rights policy. Right . All of those things on how washingtons allies understood the u. S. Commitment to nato, and whether it was reliable. I think natos history also remind us that sustained attention on the alliances Nuclear Dimensions and Nuclear Capabilities can provide some degree of reassurance to public but it can also elicit broad concern about what a world with Nuclear Weapons looks like, right . If you look at natos history during the cold war there are recurring episodes of antinuclear uprisings and we shouldnt assume that those are inherently relics of the cold war. We still live with Nuclear Weapons. Nuclear weapons can still do immense damage and we shouldnt be surprised if some people do not unquestionably show the logic of deterrence as the best way to preserve. If that consensus remains fragile today, i dont think that should surprise us, but rather they should be something we can see very clearly from the alliances past. Managing that consensus will require as it always has careful and ongoing calibration to adapt to new circumstances and use. Thats something thats been true for seven decades and a think will be as we move forwar forward. Sten, i want to come back to you as the european on our small panel here to talk about the secretive elephant in the room. And im going to be less diplomatic perhaps than our moderator, david sanger, just remind the audience that in february allies are a former president of the United States claim to uphold and allied leader, quote, you didnt pay, your delinquent, no, i would not protect you. In fact, i would encourage them, hes referring to russia, to do whatever the hell they want, end of quote. Our allies have also witnessed his loyalists in congress dragged their feet on providing Critical Military assistance needed by ukraine. I know you cant speak for you but im going to ask you to take a stab at this anyway. What is the effect, from your perspective, of such statements and actions on european thinking about the credibility of u. S. Commitments to nato . And can europeans, up with ths in error quotes, trump proof the light as some have suggested in recent articles . So the worst thing with Nuclear Issues, the political kind. Theres no question that stoltenberg, general sector stoltenberg is try to trump proved the alights on ukraine. He is setting up a policy that will be durable whatever comes in november. However, the impact on european thinking i would say is considerable, and it is, it is unprecedented in history of the alliance. We have seen concerns with russian soviet behavior before and obviously rush is on the warpath. We have not seen this level of concern with the american commitment to europe. And come what may in november, could be trump, it could be biden, theres widespread sense that biden if he wins will be the last truly transatlantic president of the United States. And trump is not just trump. Its about a Political Movement that is reached into congress, that has captured broad segment of the american population, and theres a sense that this is here to stay. However, it expresses itself in american politics, its a fact and europeans will have to live with it. At a time when russian is trying to impose great lyrical change on europe by way of war. This is obviously shaking european politics in a big way. The most obvious example of how this has changed europe is a fact that finland brought themselves and sweden into nato. I would never have thought that it would happen my lifetime. Im not that old. This is, this is absolutely stunning, that finished president some was happening in russia and said this is a dangerous for me to get into nato finnish. And the fact that the swedes made in as well. Something is really up. Back in back in the 80s,i like the 80s, an american colleague wrote of European Defense that it was sort of like room full of filing cabinets looking at each other. Things are not that bad, but theres a lot to be done in order to see how europeans would react to this. Let me just mention a few good things and delicate to some things i think im more worrisome. The good things is about the European Unions defense policy has collapsed. And when i say that, i mean it is being retooled. The older version which was very much about autonomy and Crisis Management and reaching out our area, its clearly not the answer to the collective defense challenge that europe is facing. So theres a lot of energy being put in europe into retooling you instruments for collective defense at the Defense Industry level. And ambassador smith spoke to this. A lot of money is being put on the table. 80 of what the europeans are buying today is being fought in the United States. They want so 20 in europe. They want that to be 50 by 2030 am building up the Defense Industry because that is where capacities come from. More collaboration defense and usher collaboration, more defense openness, more competition. You can say this is europes pentagon moment. If all this works out, the Defense Industrial strategy of the eu, the u. S. , europe will gain is sort of pentagon motor engine in European Defense industry. That will be huge. We also see with the european peace fund, facilitate a skull, which is all about funding Crisis Management in north africa but it is to become a Security Assistance fund for ukraine. So collected defense is making its way into the eu, and the eu as i think working very well with nato on how this is going to play together. Where i think the bad news sort of begins a little bit is this has to be translated into european capacity, operational capacity, for defending themselves, ourselves. Things are moving slowly. I said that earlier. Theres a lot of defensemen in europe that will go towards meeting the native defense planning process capability targets for individual nations. And that is fine. Thats good. That getting those targets to become an operational capacity, we dont have an answer to that yet. I am a member of a network of experts and we put out a statement on this, i can go into further depth on this, but moving from capability targets to operational capacity is europes next challenge, conventionally. Suzy mentioned europe and Nuclear Deterrence and how were getting back to some sort of sharing scheme. I entirely agree. Something is going on a new creatures because that is ultimately how we guarantee each others collective defense. And if the u. S. Pulls out a little bit, a lot, entirely, someone is going to have to fill in that gap nuclear wise. Of that debate is happening. And you saw president macron talk about french boots on the ground in ukraine. He did have in mind trans warfare for the french army. He had in mind putting a european Nuclear Power into the game. Someone who russia cannot coerce by the threat of escalation because they have Nuclear Weapons. This is truly very important for europe, and the chairmans they know it. They know however much they build up conventionally, they will be coerced above all by russia because they cant go to the nuclear level. Who is going to have germanys back nuclear wise . Thats a key question. Thats emerging, rapidly emerging german debate. France has more Nuclear Weapons than britain, but they have no street reputation for protecting Others Nuclear wise. They do not extend their concerns. Nor does britain, and they have fewer. How is this going to happen . That debate could work out well, and it could open europe for a competitive space on Nuclear Deterrence. And if i was poland, i would probably consider giving my own Nuclear Weapons if the u. S. Pulled out. So its a very dangerous situation. Very important, very dangerous. Let me finish off by saying trump. He is a phenomenon of northsouth policies, and we have that in europe, too. Its about immigration. Its about identity. Its about border, secure borders, and how you speak to popular concerns conces happening to our society. And europes Political Center is as beleaguered as your Political Center. Its not holding very well. The fringes are mobilizing. There are all kinds of issues taking a stab at the Political Center. And the Political Centers are keeping the eastwest axis against russia together. And so transformation, conventional bilat, Nuclear Debates, with a Political Center that is not doing well here thats europes condition. And so let me finish that by quoting donald trump. We would to see what happens. Touche. We have, i have broken a promise. I said maybe 30 minutes. We have fewer the net for questions, but i would invite members of the audience of questions, please. I which is say lets try to keep in brief mistake to at a time. And lets take two at a time. I am a europeanamerican, belgian american i know brussels. Thats where i grew up. I think the United States and its allies have not won a single war since world war ii. What makes you think you will win the next work against russia and china, considering that the other wars were ruled against small nations . Is there a second one . Why dont we take a turn . Who would like i think the answer to that question is, no one wants to fight a war with russia. They want to deter it. And we want deter by conventional defense. Europe will be impenetrable. They cannot get in but even if they could and then there will be deterrence to punish that penetration. Theres no desire to fight that war. The war with china is going to be economic and technological. Hopefully. And more at the level between dasher war at the level between russia nato, u. S. China is going to be so catastrophic that the parable to what went on in afghanistan iraq, libya, kosovo, its just a different ballgame. And you would hope that deterrence works. I will just out on to that to say that there is an war underway, and thats an informational war. And thats one of these concerns, right, that were talking about here is who is going to win that information war . And thats could help decide who the next president is here in this country. Thats going to decide who is elected in terms of some of these governments in europe where as we heard the center is a little bit wobbly. And theres also a cybersecurity war going on, right . As we heard earlier with ambassador smiths reference come every single day that are Cyber Attacks on nato, and allied governments by many of these large actors with whom we are talking about. And we hope as we just heard that we dont end up with a conventional or a nuclear war, and that deterrence works. Anything, susie . Heidi mentioned a few times information and the misinformation and disinformation landscape today and i think we are recalling an old problem. So yes, it is a key today, but the allied leaders of 1950 worried deeply about the popularity of damn the palm campaigns and popular sentiment in terms of nuclear some rather than support for building up what became nato after north korea invaded south korea, right . There is a long triedandtrue information gain serenity alliance because leaders by merrily in moscow have known that kalish is one of the most valuable things for the alliance, and in an alliance of democracies turning Public Opinion against allies and publics against their governments is an easy source of leverage. So i think when you talk about having, talking to the oldtimers, right, part of it is remembering our own histories. The alliance has a long history and its not all good or instructive, but they can help us think through the challenges about previous generations of policymakers grappled with not always the same but similar problems over time. Sir, please. I. T. Security studies at m. I. T. This is a great panel and especially appreciated the engagement with Nuclear Issues. I want to try to pressure a little harder on the Nuclear Deterrence question. I am an old dog and it worked on nato warsaw pact back in the day, and it was very clear that nato white up to the end rely very heavily on the threat of relatively early first use of Nuclear Weapons as a key part of its deterrent posture. And we threw everything but the kitchen sink at in terms of Nuclear Weapons. Thats have got up to six 7000 warheads in europe. The allies were quite insistent that remain this way. We could not get them to buy more than 30 days worth of conventional stocks, to build a fight in the conventional or because they want the threat of Nuclear Escalation be front and center. So im trying to come up to today and ask you to speculate a little bit on how this issue may play out. Because as you have correctly said, in our narrative we talk about a fairly extended nonnuclear campaign. We rely very heavily on the nuclear shield i mean the nuclear shield is meant to come out very late if at all. Is not clear to me at all whether countries heavily engaged with the implications for their conventional force planning, that this change has. Right . Nato forces are still stuck in the size and organization that they generated for the last 30 years. There are no reserves, and no reserves of people. Not just weapons but reserves of people. So this is a high hill to climb, and a wonder, this is future telling. How do you think this will play out as people really begin to engage with these issues which is like planning real capabilities . Thank you. Could we have a second question . I would ask, sorry, try to keep them briefed so we can get in at least a couple more here. I realize its a complicated subject matter. Thinking about strategic, perhaps a bit different. In 1970, im sorry, in 1989 i believe texaco purchased russian submarines and sold them to sweden. Do we think theres any critical approaches leveraging private sector today, understanding capabilities of press not wanting to add to the shipyard graveyards that weve seen accumulating in india, for example . Is it really a build more capabilities question, or are we also looking at aging infrastructure across the board with all nato and u. S. Structures and whatnot and there are also different guardrails that the u. S. And nato are subject to that india and israel i dont believe [inaudible] for example. Since ive already broken one rule, lets break when were a lets just take the third question now and we will just cut it off at that point. Please. First of all, thank you all for robbing you. Dr. Colbourn, i was in your International Relations class, and about four years ago. I know you probably dont remember. Its wonderful to see you get. My question is, given that how conflicts are shifted in the past decades, with now even nato getting involved in operation apparent resolve which is american blood operations in iraq and afghanistan, and the recently right now theres a greater focus of the trend to the more active role in the pacific. How do you see, question for the entire panel. How do you see nato adjusting to his commitments, that potential shift in military posture in the pacific with all the different conflict going on . Does it make sense for an alliance that was built primarily for the defense of north america and europe to play a a greater collective securable in the pacific . And doesnt even make sense that we are kind of elevating all those nonnato allies that we have in asia, japan, south korea, australia, out of the state in the structure . Thank you. Can ask et to maybe take, take a pic of questions are part of the questions . If you can keep your responses to say two minutes or so. Then well have time for a closing. Sure. So on your point abbasid this is really big concern, the concerned about reserves and the concern about people there and i would just point out the differences that you see in conscription. Here in the United States we have the draft, but we now are in a voluntary armed forces. And even though the draft still exist in the form of young men signing up, this has not been opened up to young women even though its been discussed numerous times in congress. So i would say thats a real concern. On the last question, im thinking that is a possible to be thinking about the Asian Pacific region, and as u. S. Priorities, uk priorities are shifting in that direction, does it still, should we still be thinking that nato has the presence and really has some meaning and some significant contributions to make it are very operations . And i was a yes. The greatest example of that is whats going on in kosovo. If you havent been following this, nato for many decades now has had a presence in the form of a modest, a military operation of in kosovo. And so as tensions have been rising in recent years with several significant violent outbreaks, and theres been, nato has contributed more troops and boosted the troop presence of there. So i think in the same sense that we are now reflecting back on the consequences of the withdraw from afghanistan, thinking about what would it look like with the complete shift away from some of the other operations that exist right now, is it worth the cost to maybe maintain that presence in kosovo, given that some of the conflicts are not 100 result . We talk a lot in Political Science about the postconflict and questioning is a postconflict really postconflict, given that conflicts have a tendency to cycle back up. An excellent reminder. Susie . I will take first natos role in the indopacific and what their relationship looks like. Theres always been tension in allied strategy about whether or not its fundamental role was regional engagement or global engagement. In the 1950s one of the early pushes was for the duration of a global strategy. The british have made a similar push earlier in the 1950s. This question of is the treaty area really the only place that nato should be operating, has a long history . I think we are seeing the latest phase of that but but i wouy there are lots of ways that nato can be engaged in shaping the strategic landscape in the indopacific without suddenly turning its attention away from europe to the indopacific. Sigh think we can see that reflected in a lot of this Investment Partnerships with australia, new zealand and japan and the like but also thinking about what a stable europe means for the broader International Study landscape. And so i dont think they are quite as much attention as often believe they are. On the question of deterrence and sort of future forecasting where we are going, the cold war history of the debate over deterrence give us so much contradiction to parse through. The prevailing european view was yes, rapid escalation and Nuclear Weapons because it makes deterrence more credible and more likely to protect their homeland. When american planners talked about what that would look like to use those Nuclear Weapons, most of the same european said wait, wait, wait wait, i really dont like the range of those missiles youre planning to launch, you know, those 400 kilometers, that that strikes my neighbors house. The 1000 clobbers strikes my nextdoor, the country won over house. And so always a fundamental tension about theory and practice. I thought it was particularly telling this point that ambassador smith said that they were getting back their nuclear iq. So if i do hypothesize about where were going, its that when a lot of what has worked in the last 20 or 30 years is because people are not paying attention to it. And now that the relationship between conventional and Nuclear Deterrence is back on the table in a real way, fundamentally converted in major ways from what it was during the cold war with much greater emphasis on conventional capability, when people start earning over those rocks i think people are going to find that assumptions underneath and are are very uncomfortable ones. And so i would speculate that we are due for a considerable round of probably very unpleasant debate about what is required and what the implications of that will mean because the fundamental geography of the alliance is the same. How things impact the vote in omaha, nebraska, is not how the impact summit in central poland. Sten . Well, thank you. On the indopacific, i think, and maybe that was impacted, maybe it was deliberate that you put in exactly the right terms. Nato has collected coy role in the pacific, collective security. That is talking to the key u. S. Allies, getting them multilateral lies in a dialogue on technology, disinformation. But on collective fans, nato is and must remain euroatlantic centric. It cannot by its makeup and its complexity, take on collective defense role in the indopacifi indopacific. It simply would not work. And the way the address china is about china coming to europe as stoltenberg said, and working the multilateral framework with these key u. S. Allies in the region. I think this is a future for nato in the indopacific. An american colleague of mine said both russia and china are headline news, but russia is above the fold. I didnt quite catch the private market question come so maybe we can discuss this in the break. On Nuclear Issues, i think weve seen the future, and that is allies will want to play out conventional defense in a way that is bigger than during the cold war. And its true that during the cold war the europeans wanted to accelerate escalation to get the u. S. Involved. The u. S. Sought to delay escalation beyond the conventional, so to not be involving Nuclear Weapon level. That was then. Now, nato is at the point where theyre really building up defense so theyre very careful to say defense and deterrence. And we see the planes come out of the past two years, defense planning, 300,000 reaction groups, from my defense, et cetera. Its all about not pushing Nuclear Issues to the forefront. Why not . One issue is that in europe, as in the United States i guess but he knew the europeans seem a bit better here, we have been through a couple of decades of hopefulness that perhaps Nuclear Weapons would go away. The abolitionist movement, president obamas global zero, Public Opinion has not come back to embrace a Nuclear Deterrence is something that is beautiful and nice. And the Political Center i talked about that is not solid in any case is not about to go more solid if they embrace Nuclear Deterrence against their own population. So theres a great big gap between with a population is on Nuclear Deterrence and with the Political Center is. Intermediary. Its off the table because i. Everything for russia is dietrich so escalation is much for unpredictable about is a challenge for eight months while they were the a lot maintain considerable Defense Department but the conversation is to be held. This afternoon there will be a continuation of this topic. We have to call this torment, i think its been very rich but a couple things have been mentioned. A couple personal reflections, neither nato excessive nor strong comments were great ordained. Come to the conclusion people make policy. Hopefully with a combination of foresight in history, important values and ability and will continue to meet those men and women nato affairs so this is mainly directed in the audience. I saw with him a few hours canadian and early zero five foot first time in history and came back to washington and was quickly approved, meant something. Not only to protect our airspace put the responsibilities around the world and the efforts to afghanistan. In those areas were nader was not prepared to act as an organization, make no mistake, everything was done for decades, exercising and training was vital for the performance of paramilitaries. Without together. Another example, i spent a lot of time working with both and its remarkable. Whats remarkable is how quickly those two countries partly members and we applied at the same time in may of 2022 look at the shortest lapse of time but as of last month, and smell a member. Ministry of defense month they make their countries more interoperable to make mark aware of what made our best and look at the old mets and work and receive the benefits i hope students me audience income for roleplay have to play an american mark bring, its fitting closed by remembering a littleknown european expert, sir mick jagger athletic i think of him because interest organization, some think hes saying you cant always get what you want but if you try real hard, he might get what you need. Please join me in thanking the panel