Welcome all of you to this policy forum trip report from a trip that i, my three colleagues and 50 members of the washington institu institutes board of trustees undertook just about a week ago, completing it, to the gulf. Let me just very briefly introduce our my colleagues up here, my immediate left, kate bauer, former u. S. Treasury official, who is our bloomen steen katz Family Fellow at the institute, she will speak after me offering impressions about our visit to abu dhabi. To her left is lori boghart. A former government intelligence analyst, who will be prepared to talk about all sorts of issues from Counter Terrorism and counter radicalization to social change going on in the gulf. At the far end of the table is mike swing. Our fellow. Who will also participate in our q a session, talking about all sorts of issues under the sun, from Strategic Issues to u. S. Bilateral relations with the countries in question. Again, this was an unusual trip that we took in the sense that it was a large delegation. There were 55 of us, all told who travelled from riyhad to muscaf to abu dhabi. This itinerary planned a long time ago was meant to reflect change that was gone in a very small area. Three very different countries. Each undergoing their own internal change, especially visible in terms of the transformation that is underway in saudi arabia. But is not alone in the process of domestic change each of whom is governed by the geography in which they sit that has a powerful determining factor for their regional Foreign Policy. Ill say mostly some words about saud by arabia, but just a word about oman. Wont say much about oman in the sense that we were there over a weekend. We had an opportunity to meet a wide variety of officials and see in a physical and up front sense the uniqueness and stru structural differentiation between oman and riyhad. Where you sit determines where you stand. And the omani Foreign Policy, which is starkly different than the Foreign Policy of its neighbors was quite evident from conversations with senior officials, and their openness to all regional partners. And their middleman role with the iranians, we can get into that a little later on. Just one final preparatory word, in case anyone is wondering, this trip was financed by the washington institute, other than a few delicious meals that were provided this was on our dime. Not any local officials, and the purpose of the trip was really to decide for ourselves a specialist, and the lay leaders of the washington institute, how real and serious are the prospects of change in these countries. How real and serious and carefully considered is the regional strategy pursued by these capitals, and for us to decide for ourselves while what ill call the obama critique, namely this is a swamp in which the United States should stay out. From which the United States should stay out. Or alternatively, is this a part of the world where we should be deeply engaged in order to assist the parties for their own benefit and our natural interests. Which one of these basic decisions is right . And ill say more about that a little bit later on. Let me make some comments about saudi arabia. When we arrived in riyhad on our opening night, i reminded our group that traditionally saudi arabia is based on three pillars, family, god and oil. You can make your own determination of which is more important than the other. And that to keep family together, electra guessly the saudi leadership has had a strategy based on the division of power on the various branches of family, rotation of leadership, among the various branches of the family. And the spreading of wealth among the various branches of family. If you were to Flash Forward and think about where saudi arabia is today, all these three pillars are being rethought and reconsidered. So in the saudi world view, since 1979, the year in which two sort of catastrophic events occurred one being the mega mosque takeover, and the other being the iranian revolution, this triggered enorm ousz change within the kingdom, in terms of the god pillar. And it lid saudi institutions down a path of extremism, which is now caught up with them and the leadership clear recognizes that. Secondly, the money pillar, the wealth pillar. The perception is, this is running out, certainly running out in the manner of spending that has historically been the case the third pillar is that to fix these first two problems of religious extremism and of an economy that doesnt produce what the country needs, you kwoongt keep the family together in the same manner its been kept in the past. So, therefore, theres underway a big risky experiment, a gamble to change the nature of the economy, to change the nature of society as a way to change the nature of the economy, and to change how leadership is determined and how power is wielded in the kingdome. This is a modernizing experiment, the record of modernizing from the top down in the middle east is mixed at best if one were to look at the record of turkey to the shah of iran, the record is mixed that is the path in which the leadership is taken. Dramatic transformation from the top down. This is not about democracy, this is not about liberalism in the traditional sense, its about how to in my view, its about how to rescue the saudi kingdom from the realities of the limits that it now faces, the limits of its experience with islamic institutions in the last quarter century, the reliance own traditional sources of revenue, and the limits of this the method of leadership diffuse leadership among the branches of the family that may have brought it so far, but doesnt seem to be the path for the future, the basic strategy after meeting with a broad range of officials and private entrepreneurs, and Young Students and high level Senior Leaders the basic strategy seems to me to make haste slowly, method methodically, but to make haste. Incrementsal but real change in the role women play in society, in the concept of work in the elements of the economy, and in how leadership is apportions within the ruling family. We saw this with the various people we met theres a huge injection of enthusiasm for change, that happens to be coming from the hundreds of thousands of alumni. King abdullah having given scholarships to come to the United States. A large majority are coming back and theyre not looking forward to take the roles their parents and grandparents had in society. Theyre taking their degrees putting them to work in new careers. I remember one fancy restaurant we were at one night we met the head chef who was the head receive over a staff of all men. I sat next to a young woman ph. D. Who wassed dean of a new university. A young guy who gave up his government job to own his own italian bakery selling cannolis. Half an hour into a conversation, can you ask sensitive questions, and the one thing i came away from all these interactions with especially outside people of government, is that they were banking on change, and they didnt want some foreign adventure, some foreign entanglement, someone elses issue to derail that process, i think many of our group were particularly impressed by what Senior Leaders said about shall we say moderate islam, rethinking traditional views of how islam is interpreted, mandated and executed. The basic idea for a rationale for this change is to go back to the model. Did women work in the 7th century . Of course. The prophet married an older woman who was a successful entrepreneur. That model is something that saudis are now pointing to. When we met the crown prince, he was joined by a handful of senior saudi leaders and most of them made sense to me. The minister of the interior, the national secured adviser sitting two seats over was the head of the National Entertainment authority. I was wondering why is the head of the National Entertainment authority in this platform. The crowned prince didnt have time to explain to us why this gentleman was sitting two seats away from him, we learned he was there because saudi arabia was about to open movie theaters to women. All part of this incremental, but in the saudi context, very significant move toward integrating women fully in the social fabric of the country. We saw i saw a hint of this in a fascinating exchange we had with the head of the Muslim World League when we asked about nonmuslim prayer in saudi ara a arabia, and when that might be allowed. The answer was not that it is forbidden in islam, rather, he mentioned that the current rulers are following the practice of previous rulers, on this territory, implaying to my ears that the ban on nonmuslim prayer was a tradition, not a an immutable aspect of islamic law. I found that very interesting. I also found interesting on this front, numbers we heard from very high leaders in the country 70 of personnel in religious institutions were by saudi accounts extremists up to two years ago, that purges have taken place and that number is now down to 20 with a goal of 5 three years from now. The idea that very high levels of government would offer such numbers to my ears was a stark admission of responsibility for religious extremism. And certainly a commitment to change. My overall sense was that on domestic matters, the regime has a clear sense of whereny want to go and how to get there. It wont be easy, of course, and it may fail. If youre under 35 or 40, youre a winner and you support it. If youre over 50, youre probably a loser and chances are likely that you oppose it. There are lots of potential losers in this change. A senior minister said to us, that the saudis now estimate that for many years, 8010 of the Saudi National budget has been siphoned off for corruption. The 2017 budget was 890 riyals. About 240 billion or so dollars. Thats a lot of money. Many of them are in the royal family to cut out that level of corruption, if that is the case is certainly going to be a fraught process. Fraught with danger for the people who are the benefits of corruption, and fraught for those who are trying to root it out if indeed thats the case, at the same time, the saudi leadership sees foreign threats and challenges all around. With the most urgent and threatening coming from iran. The threats in my view are real. Its unclear to me they have the same clarity of strategy in confronting the external threats as they do in their efforts to promote internal reform. Saudi arabia has been on the receiving end of missiles that have killed large numbers. When a very Senior Leader said to us, imagine what america would do if cuba dropped missiles in miami. You guys would drop the abomb. Offering exactly the same response how to deal with Yemen Remains a challenge. We were in riyhad when they changed political tact and then was subsequently killed. I cant say i have a clear idea of where saudi arabia and its allies are going, i can say they are sensitive to charges of the purposeful targeting of civilians. We were given the opportunity to visit invited to visit the air operations command. They brought us into the room where you can see dozens of saudi air controllers offering realtime instructions to pilots flying over yemen. And there behind a plate glass window waving at us, inquiry american and british air liaison officers. I tell you from my perspective, it worked. Its tough to imagine those american and british officers playing a role in the purposeful and deliberate bombing of civilians, does it happen . By error, by incompetence. Absolutely. Does this account answer questions about the delivery of humanitarian goods, no. On this question, unless you believe the u. S. Air force is in cahoots in the purposeful targeting of civilians, the answer at least as of today in my view is no. Strategically, we didnt hear a lot of answers to the famous david pa trayous question, how does this end, namely, how does the qatar crisis end that we heard an earful about the zhu missity. We didnt hear how the lebanese crisis ends, we heard a lot about the party of the devil. Which is the saudis preferred name for hezbollah, a lot of warnings that the upcoming lebanese election should be stopped, because it is about to permanently empower hezbollah, who is likely to have constitutional change and dramatically change the political makeup of that country. We did hear a more upbeat portrayal of the situation in iraq that i had imagined, namely that the current Iraqi Government is pushing back on iranian influence there, seems optimistic to me, but very interesting. In all of this, there was only one operational request we heard of the United States. Yes, they would like to see tougher u. S. Measures to stop weapons smuggling into yemen, theyd like to see the u. S. Take hezbollah down a notch. But the one ask, the only ask we heard was regarding east syria. The essential element in blocking the iranian land bridge and in helping to contain eye roones spreading influence in that air. As for irans strategy itself, the basic idea was containment, push back iranian influence, bottle them up, until such time as the iranian people bring about the change that will eventually come. If we dont assertively contain them now, we were told military confrontation becomes inevitable before long. I have written elsewhere on israel, the Peace Process in jerusalem, i wont repeat everything ive written else where here, suffice to say, we were there on the day of and the day after the president s announcement on jerusalem as israels capital. 23 we didnt raise the issue, im not at all sure it would have been raised by them. When we did raise it, their response was measured and moderate, put in the context of larger u. S. Saudi relations, larger u. S. Saudi efforts to build Israeli Palestinian peace, to which the saudis were committed, at the end of which, saudi arabia could see itself having a promising mutually beneficial relationship with israel. This was not as some have suggested, merely saudi hospitality, a desire not to raise unpleasant issues with guests. There are many ways to raise unpleasant issues, pleasantly. Flew sorrow and not through anger, i was in saudi arabia in the summer of 2000, precisely when president when the camp david summit was going on with crown prince abdul larks right in the middle of that summit, he found a way to express his views on the issue to our guests. To our delegation, and im sure that the saudi leadership, if they had had a great anger, would have found a way to express that to us. Instead, i believe that they made a purposeful effort to express their views to us in the manner that they did. So thats the story. Real dine mix on the domestic front with a clear sense of direction. Deep frustration and fear on the foreign front, with a willingness to act that is unusual in looking at saudi history, but with somewhat less clarity of purpose or design. We the United States can play a useful role by helping them with the latter, while playing a supportive and encouraging role and providing an encouragement environment for the former, in broad strokes, we should want the reform process to succeed and we should do our best with the saudis, in order to build on our common desire, and to help them make that more effective, more targeted, clearer with specific achievements and working in closer concert with its partners, especially here in washington. Those are my views on our visit to saudi arabia. Ill turn it over to kate for what we learned in the uae. Kate . Thank you, rob. First, id like to start by thanks rob for the opportunity to participate in this trip. It was truly an amazing, amazing trip, an amazing experience in all three countries are for the insights that weve gained and the access that we were granted. And thanks for that goes to our hosts in saudi arabia, oman and the uae. It was an honor to participate in this trip with my colleagues, rob, mike and lori, and with such an engaged group of trustees, a truly amazing time to be in the region, not just because the weather was superb. Returned to a chilly d. C. We arrived in the uae, picking up from where rob left off, energized by this dine mix that we experienced in saudi, and rested from our weekend in oman. The uae was an important stop for us to make, because it no doubt serves as a model in the region, because of its diversified economy and its commitment to tolerance and months race, its also an important u. S. Ally, a key partner on Counter Terrorism, a key ally in the current isil fight, and an important relationship in terms of the military relationship. Also, of course, saudi arabia and the uae are close partners, in contrast to our stop in riyhad, what we heard from officials in the uae, focused primarily on Foreign Policy, and the regional dynamics, no shortage of which were related to saudi arabia, and the reform agenda there within, and how it proceeded. Considering the focus in recent years on uaes ability to project power militarily, we have heard about the little sparta, the uae fighting alongside the u. S. And afghanistan, being a current partner in the isil coalition, as i mentioned. And the Saudi Coalition in yemen. What i heard related to soft power. One of the over arching themes was the fight to counter extremism. And also the need to emphasize development and governance in other countries in the region. What i came away with was a cohesive view from the perspective of the region and the regional strategy. How it was laid out was citing two primary threats they faced. Iran in terms of its support for proxies and islamist extremism. On iran, it was no surprise that yemen figured very central in our conversations, given that the threat that is posed by iranian support to the huutis. But we did discuss iranian situations. We made comparisons between the huutis, yemens and hezbollah, even to the extent they cited less sons learned from the israeli experience there. Talking about how the israeli withdrawal left a vacuum that was taken by yemen. Their presence in yemen was forestalling a similar consequence there if the power vacuum was allowed to persist. They expressed a commitment to finding a political solution in yemen, but also a wariness of working with islamist parties. Which has been overcome in part based on the news this weekend that nbz and nbs as well, met with the leader of the yemeni party, which was previously affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood. I was left with the impression that their view of containing iran, meant confronting them in yemen and domestically, where they saw iran interfering in the domestic politics or Domestic Affairs of regional sunni arab countries. Whereas the view from washington, i feel is focused on the lavant. But perhaps we see some signs of the influence of this view on the Trump Administration strategy, and a focus there in the october speech on countering iran and yemen. But as rob said, when the lavont was raised to what extent, what sense of ending was not exactly articulated. So on the on irans intervention interference on domestic policies. Counter extremism, to shore up the defenses against iranian influences. Especially in iraq and saudi arabia. They acknowledged they were too slow and echoed the saudi commitments to exporting Economic Development there. Not through assistance, but through investment. On islamist extremism, i found the uae less shy about how it views its role in promoting tolerance and moderation in the region. I also felt like i heard more acknowledgement of the role of ideology. This was something that was also that i found in saudi arab yarks im happy to talk more about that in the q a, and i think my colleague loriwe. But where i would say is the Bumper Sticker moment for me in the meetings that we had from the uae, the phrase that i felt like summed up this cohesive regional strategy was when one official said to us that they may count er in saudi arabia an in egypt. And that in order to be credi e credible, they need to fly those two flags. Thats because saudi arabia being the birthplace of islam. If you can see the uaes morsi government in egypt im sorry, the sisi government in egypt, and their involvement, their support for saudi arabia, but also a view that what part of what theyre doing in yemen is to help saudi arabia and prevent the yemen conflict from destabilizing saudi arabia ass s as has been mentioned. Likewise, regarding president trumps announcement on jerusalem, he was quoted in the local press from our meeting, his comments on the president s statement were that it could be a rallying cry for extremists. So the focus was on that and not other aspects a of of that decision. But they also welcome u. S. Efforts to reinvigorate the Peace Process. So, again, what struck me was the cohesiveness of this Foreign Policy, and the kind of theme of counter extremism that flowed through it. For example, the iran threat to yemen is a threat to saudi, which undermines these reforms. Likewise in iraq. One final point i wanted to make, as i said, most of our meetings with officials focused on Foreign Policy, but i had the opportunity to stay behind and do some side meetings with members of the commercial and Financial Sector in dubai. One thing worth noting, there is a sense that this is an uncertain time in the region. The confidence that we hear in official meetings, acknowledgements this is going to be a long, hard fight. But in the commercial sectors, theres a sense of the uncertainty. While the qatar crisis didnt receive considerable attention in our meetings, it did amongst the folks i talked to in dubai. This view that the gcc is not just a political entity but also a Common Market that has common standards. And that fear of the dissolution of these brings uncertainty to those working in dubai as a platform, the Value Proposition that you can work in dubai across the region. I also heard anecdotally stories of rising nationalism on both sides of the qatar crisis, which left those in the commercial sector with the sense that this was an entrenched conflict that would not be resolved any time soon. There was also concern about the assertiveness about saudi Foreign Policy, the ongoing expenses incurred through the conflicts in yemen, as well as the efforts in saudi arabia. So i dont want to overstate that, because the uae as a small country does well as long as the regional economy does well, as long as the Global Economy does well. As a small country, the uae is pursuing a policy of promoting stability in an unable region. To recognize that these are long fights against extremism and countering iran. While theyre willing to take on these fights as we heard, they also articulated the need to press upon allies the importance of ally support for stability in the Key Countries theyve identified in their regional strategy. So i havent covered the full scope, but i look forward to hearing more from my colleagues. Thank you very much, kate. Before i turn to your questions, two other remarks that i forgot to mention. First is i wanted to very specifically thank the government of saudi arabia and uae for sending their senior officials to our group. It is not every day that a delegation of 55 strong comes to places, and it was an unusual visit for them and for us. So were the delegation was thrilled with our visits all around. The second is i wanted to also thank the u. S. Embassy in each of the places we visited. We made it a point to have briefings from the heads of missions, whether thats the ambassadors in oman or abu dh i dhabi, and really provided extraordinarily valuable look at how politics is going in all these places. I can say with some certainly that we are extremely well represented in all the places in which we visited. With that, well turn the floor over to your questions for any or all of us. Yes. I was actually i watched it on a web cast, but there was a session at the usip last week on the disfungysfunction in thee east, and it was like they were talking about a different region. I didnt see i didnt hear any of the kind of optimism about what both of you have express and what you saw. I dont know if you saw or read anything about the usip panel, but i wonder if you could address that. Are you really as optimistic as you seem, or do you see the future of the middle east really a mess of uncertainty right now . And a quick followup. Do you make any do you attribute any political implications to the arrest of al masri in riyadh last week . Maybe i c i didnt have a chance to see the usip panel. But when it comes to saudi arabia, i think we have optimism mixed with pessimism, in a sense. Meeting with leaders in saudi arabia and ordinary people, Civil Society leaders lets say, you come away with a sense of sincerity that there is a desire, for example, to transform the economy. There is a desire to engage in real social reform and some of the reforms were seeing there. At the same time, it would be foolish to juunderestimate the scale of the challenges saudi arabia faces, this movement from an oildominated economy, which is heavily dominated by the public sector, to one which is private sector led and diversified is a transition that very few countries have ever made. I would be hard pressed to come up with an example of a country thats successfully done that. So that challenge is there. Some of the people we met were realistic about that, i would say. I think doing that especially without any kind of political reform is even more difficult, frankly. Then i think the other big challenge, one that observers of saudi arabia is that succession of one generation to the next. You had this very smooth Succession Process from brother to brother. Now its got to skip down to the next generation, where we dont know if it will be as consensual and as smooth. I think the jury is still out on that. I think that its hard not to come away from meeting with mbs and believing that hes sincere about the transformation. But its also hard not to be concerned about some of the other things. We have anticorruption mixed with this spending on luxuries and things like that. And you wonder if this will be something that goes smoothly or if well face real challenges. When it comes to the zooming out from the saudi economy and the challenges they face to the regional policies, i think you if you look at saudi Foreign Policy, you see alignment with the United States in terms of concerns about iran and concerns about extremism. At the same time, theres great reason to be skeptical about yemen and where that conflict is going. Theres great reason to be skeptical about this conflict. These things may detract from our efforts to take on iran. So i look at the gcc split, and i would echo back to our gcc colleagues, one of the things they said to us about president trumps recognition of jerusalem, which it seems like an opening for iran. This seems like something that can be exploited by those very adversaries were trying to counter. I think one of the things that contribute to that, if you still see that the countries of the regions themselves will not be able to provide region wide leadership. Theres still too many divisions, too many constraints on even saudi arabia to address problems, even in syria, iraq, egypt, which arent that far afield. Theres a heavy focus on much more local problems. That creates a need for very strong American Leadership to tap into this trend towards an alignment of interests between our allices, and then harness i to a bigger purpose in a sense, across the region. Right now i dont think we see that. I think we see more sort of transactional operations without the unifying strategy. I hope we will see that. We have a National Security strategy being unveiled today. Thank you for your question. In washington, for legitimate reasons, were concerned about political vulnerabilities, especially in saudi arabia, of it moving so quickly and dramatically. It was very interesting to hear the saudi view of this. The saudis are the first to admit that the pace of change that theyre pursuing and the dramatic change that theyre pursuing is politically risky. But they feel that not doing so, not moving quickly enough, and not moving as dramatically enough, is even more risky. When we try to drill down what that means and what that refers to, with our saudi interlockters, i think the fundamental issue is, this drop in oil income, and the need to change the social contract between the rulers and the ruled, and also to change the traditional relationship between the Political Leadership and the religious leadership in saudi arabia. And i think we all came away with the view that the saudis feel theyre under grave threat domestically and regionally, and they feel this is the way forward, very fast, dramatic change. And we should do all we can to help them succeed in that effort. Question, patrick up in front. Thank you. Could you discuss attitudes from those you met with towards president trump, how important he is, how successful is he, how useful is he, and what are their concerns about the relationship with the Trump Administration, particularly the president , Going Forward . Look, i can tell you that the among the most senior saudis with whom we met, when this issue was posed directly, their response was, and im paraphrasing, we deal with the United States, we respect president trump, we dont we dont have a few on who america chooses as its leader. We do appreciate the fact that he has changed the paradigm of american Foreign Policy from a desire for outreach to iran to recognition of iran as a main source of regional mischief and trouble making. But with any of the officials with whom we met, i dont recall any further personalizing of discussion about we didnt talk about the russia investigation or tweeting or that sort of thing. It just didnt come up. Rob, first, nation congratu to you and the institute for pulling this visit off. I can tell you when i was out there this would not have happened. Its a good sign for the institute and for the trends in the country. There are two issues that havent really changed very much, and yet they have when i was there. Iran, of course, was always was a big concern. Although i think over the years thats increased to the point where you remember tom friedman calling it an obsession. And i dont know whether anybody here in this room has seen the video thats come out. Its mind boggling and i dont know quite the origin of that and why, but its worrisome, too. And what it is, its a mockup about an attack by iran on some saudi planes and an attack by saudi arabia, not only on planes but on the country, on the capital can which is really something. So i think the iran factor has, if anything, increased of these years. On the other one, on palestine, i didnt meet with anybody out there during my years when the first subject wasnt palestine. And our policies or lack of help on that. I was very interested in your meeting with mbs and you said that he was very he didnt even want to talk about jerusalem and i guess you asked him. And i dont think that would have ever been the case when i was there. On the other hand, i have seen a couple of other statements, and i dont know if youve seen the statement put out by prince al faissal, really tough. But do you sense any difference within the leadership there, or is this based on what . I have no idea what any leader wants to say or doesnt want to say. I know what they do say. I also have i mean, i read the statements attributed to king salman, the official saudi statement, all of which were quite direct on this issue. I cannot but come away with the report that, in a series of meetings with senior saudi leaders, including the crown prince, at no time was the issue raised by our interlocketors. It was commented on in response to questions. I dont want to suggest that anybody was congratulatory to the president on the decision he took. That certainly wasnt the case. But there was a sense of proportion and where this fit into overall saudi Foreign Policy. Just in a broader sense, i think in general the response to the president s decision on jerusalem called into question three assumptions that have long been held about middle easterners, about how arabs and muslims react politically to certain things, that lead people to look much more closely. Number one, that when arabs and muslims oppose policies, they only do it violently. Thats quite a derogatory view to hold of arabs and muslims. They can oppose policies and have positions and reflect their political views nonviolently, as many have and many do and many should. And thats the reality. Secondly, the idea that governments today are as eager to use the palestine issue and are able to use the palestine issue the way they used it in the 50s, 60s, and 70s, i dont think thats the case today. And third is the fundamental residence of this issue, which i think has decreased. It has not disappeared by any stretch of the imagination, but given the other items that crowded out the public agenda, it has relatively decreased. Thats just a political reality. On the saudiiran point, look, i think that we heard sort of different takes in saudi arabia and the uae. There certainly is a heavy focus on iran, and i think thats understandable. From my point of view, i think youre seeing a period of time right now in the middle east where the iranians are more aggressive regionally than they have been. And i think that focus is probably heavier in saudi arabia in part because you have iranian missiles being fired into saudi arabia, whether in the southern provinces or against the Riyadh Air Force which happened a couple days before we arrived. In uae, theres still the focus on iran, but with, as kate said, the kesense that we need to foc on our own internal defenses against iran extremists and so forth by ensuring that our sort of military defenses are strong, ensuring our economies are resilient. I think the u. S. Would like to see these countries focus on these things instead of the more military counters of what iran is doing. And i think we would like to see these countries again take more leadership of resolving some of these regional conflicts to deny iran those opportunities. I meet with iranian officials and whats interesting is you hear a lot less from iranian officials about whats happening in the region than say from saudi officials. I think it reflects that iran sees itself as a global power in a way that other countries in the region perhaps dont. So i would say that we would like these countries in the region, saudi arabia, the uae and so forth, to start thinking of themselves more in that not necessarily global context, but in the regional context, opposed to in competition with the iranians, if you know what i mean, focused on promoting their own prosperity, sort of their own resilience against the types of threats they face. Yes, a bunch of questions here. You mentioned that the crowned prince is engaged in experiments. Can you give us an idea if its not delicate to say so, having just been hosted by them, about some of the results of the failure of his experiments . What happens in saudi arabia, given the Strategic Imperatives are still the same for them, if there is a reaction to everything hes doing. I dont understand that they have options in yemen. So can you spell out what a post crowned prince failure might look like for american policy in the region and what the fallout might be, what types of people would be in charge, would it be a reaction to reempower the extremists or return to more extremist type behavior . Thanks. Look, thats a hypothetical thats not a hypothetical. Look, we all came away with the sense that theres enormous risk, as lori just said, enormous risk in doing this, and greater risk in not doing this. The real trick is the speed of change. You need to go fast enough to maintain the support of your people, but not so fast that you that the system breaks. It is not easy to find that right balance of speed. I have no doubt there are times when they wont find that right balance of speed and things will look dicier than at other moments. But to try to predict what the country looks like when the current early stage when the current process of change fails is, i dont think is a useful exercise. I might say one more thing about it. Well, two things. One, one of the things that we came away with is the notion that the belief in the need for say social change and so forth isnt just an mbs project. You saw within a lot of different quarters within society, and there was a lot of enthusiasm for it. So i dont think that that element of changing saudi arabia really just rests on one quiguy shoulders. It will be hard for any other leader to deny it, given the youth of the saudi population and their desire apparently to see this kind of change. Economically, i think we can speculate more cheerily as to what the stakes are more saudi arabia. They need to make the kinds of changes theyre making. If theyre not serious about these changes, i think theyll face severe economic consequences. And so thats why i think we do need the support of the United States government, the types of economic changes that the saudi government have in mind. Because without them, i saudi a have the resilience its had in the past, which has been a pillar of american policy. Kate . If youre talking about on the economic front, coming from what mike said, if youre just talking about this in 2030, i think theres a tendency to want to look at the benchmarks and say theyre not meeting this. But if they do 50 of what they said theyre going to do, thats going to come a long way in addressing some of these longer term issues they have economically. But what we heard also was a real frankness, i felt like our enterlocketers said theyre not going to make some of shes gui some of these guidelines, but theyre not throwing the objectives out, theyre just delaying them by a few years. So you have to be careful trying to judge the progress on 2030 and understand it was an overly ambitious plan from the getgo. Yes . Thank you for the presentation and congratulations on the trip. You talk about the u. S. Giving support to saudi arabia for the Economic Reforms that mbs is trying to make. And yet there is a sense of at least i sense a lot of derision and cynicism bordering on hostility towards saudi arabia, particularly towards what mbs is trying to do. How is that going to affect the ability of the u. S. To support the saudis in their program of reform . First of all, do you agree that there is a lot of cynicism and hostility and the comments when the press talked about the purchase of the leonardo was so clearly hostile. So i wonder how that impacts the ability of the u. S. To help the saudis. Thank you. Theres no doubt that the issue of proflegate spending casts a shadow over this, certainly in the sense of perception. I havent the foggiest sense of what is trout uth or fiction, b the perception is out there, and in many respects, thats all that matters. Do i think that the leadership of the country needs to be of single mind on this and not let other things like the perception of the spending get in the way of whatever anticorruption or retrenchment or Economic Reform Program . Absolutely. This will have an impact on how, you know, Public Opinion, which does exist, its measured differently than outside of saudi arabia, but how to have Public Opinion support these efforts, it will have an impact. So for sure. If i were asked my advice, absolutely, i would say get out of the prophlegate spending business and focus on the anticorruption. I can say that again, maybe its just people imagine its always been that way, but we did meet a fairly youre talking about here . Here, thats no doubt that there is this skepticism. You see it smash esplashed on tt page of the new york times, and sure, when you speak to actual young saudis, especially young saudi women, and the desire that this is an opportunity not to be missed, you get a sense that this is real. So you get boast at the same time. This is part of the complexity. I wish it were more simple, but this is just the reality. I would just add one thing. We heard similar questions within saudi arabia from saudis. The question was, why do people have this caricature of saudi arabia . Saudi arabia has been, by choice, a closed place for a long time. And theyre changing that, opening up the country to tourists, to the world in a sense. I think that can only help in this regard. Because its true that the caricature you may have in your mind, especially younger saudis, doesnt match with the reality you confront on the streets of riyadh. I think the burden of changing that perception is that to the saudis, to be open to the world to het peoplet people come for themselves. David, and then over here in the middle. Thank you. David wineberg, inside defamation league. I wanted to ask about something that really hasnt come up a lot here. Which is the issues of human rights and rule of law. In saudi arabia, their National Transformation plan has goals, but i was wondering to what extend these choice of issues were raised by the delegation or came up with your officials in saudi arabia or uae or oman, and whether the exciting these things are doing combatting extremism at the moment are taking the fore, and what that makes sense. And then if i can take on another question, i would like to know if hamas came up. You mentioned hezbollah being a topic of conversation, but im fascinated to know how these countries are thinking about hamas, given they dont list hamas as a terrorist group, but theyre opposed to hamas and the uae is engaged in this effort in gaza. So how is that affecting their approach to hamas, if at all . Thank you, david. There were a couple of key messages that we heard from across top saudi interlocketers that we spoke to. One of them is the most important domestic concerns if saudi right now is extremism. And thats something that, as you know, we need to be careful about, because when the saudis talk about extremists and terrorists, they have a much broader view and broad eer interpretation of that term. There are groups and individuals who they believe fall in that category who we as americans dont see it that way. I think this is something we need to be aware of when were talking with our Gulf Partners about their counterterrorist campaigns. That important thing being said, i came away with the impression that there is a palpable change in the way the saudis are pursuing real counterterrorist efforts, as we define them, against isis, against al qaeda. We came away hearing about a widening of the scope of their counterterrorist campaigns, a deepening of the scope of their counterterrorism campaigns, to include religious institutions, their education system, a Global Campaign to promote tolerance and coexistence thats led by the Muslim World League. Whats essentially a hot text startup company, which is involved in trying to understand and counter extremist messaging. Some of these things the saudis have been doing for years. But i think our trip gave us a sense, and frankly the things weve been hearing from the saudis over the last few months, has dpimgiven us the sense that there is a new level of commitment and a new determination to fight the terrorists when it comes to terrorists that we and the saudis agree on. The isis threat and the al qaeda threat. But, again, i think your concern about the difference between who americans sometimes who americans define as extremists and who saudis define extremists is legitimate. We heard from a top saudi official that there is a difference essentially he acknowledged a difference in understanding of different freedoms between the americans and the saudis. And i think thats very much relevant. Kate . I would just add in terms of rule of law that the one time that i can recall this came up very clearly is when we inquired about the anticorruption efforts. The response that we got from a senior saudi official was to refer back to a statement from the attorney general about how those cases of individuals who had been detained hadnt been settled would be referred to the public prosecution. This was within the context of a stu discussion about investor confidence. So i thought it was important, kind of a recognition there might be some negativism pact if it continues to be viewed as something thats being done in an extrajudicial fashion. So well see how that proceeds from this point. But that was the message we got. And i dont recall a specific discussion of hamas, i may have missed it. Did it come up . No, i dont recall it coming up. I didnt get the sense in either place that there was any sort of love lost for any of these types of groups. I think the message they wanted to send was really not sort of focused on sort of on that topic at all. But frankly, i think on that it may be the overall topic really wasnt broached that much. I just wanted to pick up on catherines point here just a second ago on investor confidence. On the Business Confidence question, catherine, rob, anyone, just before the roundup for the movie casablanca, there was dabos in the desert. Thousands of Business Executives present with a very onliy opti hue with business Going Forward. What do you hear from officials on the impact of that sudden announcement and reactions to where Business Investment is going at this point given the details of the announcement by mbs . Just a word on this. We asked this question almost word for word to senior saudi officials. And the response we got, how could you have all these investors here one day and the next week throw all these businessmen in the ritz carlton the next week, doesnt that send the wrong message to the investors . The response was, investors will see that in the mid to longterm, this is very good for investing. That they will not any longer have the middleman to have to pay off anymore, and theyll the system will be a lot more efficient. Is this a near term impact . Perhaps. But the view was very clearly that investors will see that once the dust settles, that it will be a better investment environment. I dont have much to add from what rob said. I think thats exactly it. Its going to create some uncertainty in the near term. I heard people tell me that even in response to this idea that youll cut out the middlemen. But there was some value added to that. You have to have a local partner, you get a capital infusion, you have somebody that has the knowhow. I think what theyre trying to do is to make a big change thats going to take some time to get used to. But i think rob cited in his remarks some of the percentages that were shared with us in terms of, you know, how much they felt they were losing to corruption. So i think they felt like this is a worthwhile time to do it. And endeavor to juundertake it. I have two questions. The first one regarding the recent conflict between the uae leadership and would you consider that given their overall approach to the Muslim Brotherhood to be a tactical move or do you see a larger strategic shift in the way the uae leadership will approach that from now on . And the second one as it refers to saudi arabia. I think there is a recognition that yemen will demand some sort of political solution. I think theres a desire to tie it to a political solution, which requires dealing with all the various parties on the crown. At the same time in the longterm, a clear desire to ensure that the government of yemen is not either a pro iranian government. I think what we missed overall is how do you get from here to there . There was a realism that the houthi forces are quite well entrenched in the places they control. And defeating them is certainly a tall order. On the question about iran, look, i think that we didnt have such an explicit conversation about engagement between the two sides. At the same time, there is a history of it, and most of the certain concerns were concerns about whether is iran doing in lebanon and yemen and so forth. What you see is from the gulf states is a desire to push back on the desire to sort of get the United States to cooperate, pushing back against it. But not necessarily with an aim for regime change. The question about obsession with iran came up. I think thats the wrong term. I think there are very concrete and frankly i think wellfounded concerns about what iran is doing. But nothing about well, you shouldnt engage with them or you should overthrow them. Its more practical in the focus. I agree with mike. I think the uae s recent engage went with a reflection of a lack of options for move forg waing n yemen. When we were in the uae, the brotherhood is the root of the terrorists problem is what we were hearing. And this is their perspective on the challenge. Other questions . Yes, in the back. Any question is abomy questi. Oman is believed to be the border is believed to be one point from which the houthis are getting weapons and supplies. So theyve charted a quasi independence policy. What kind of insight do you have on that leg of the trip, particularly as we see saudi arabia and the uae putting forward a more assertive policy . Is there concern there . And its also believed to be a country on the edge of transition. So anything you can say about that too, thanks. I think we heard what we expected from the omanis, which was a different attitude towards iran and these regional conflicts than you get in riyadh or abu dhabi. Frankly, we didnt have an explicit conversation about the overland route, but in the context of sort of discussions about yemen and since then, including from the Trump Administration, i would expect that to be a greater point, both in our engagement with the omanis and the regional engagement about the idea of lets focus more on ent interdiction, especially after the nikki haley comments. The omanis certainly emphasize engagement with iran opposed to the things as much as anything, its a result of who the omanis are, who their history is, and their checkered relations with their own neighbors. So this was not surprising. So it was quite true form, and it was interesting to see in the flesh and to hear in the flesh. But there was no surprise to hear this from omani officials. I would just add that on the question of lethal aid to the houthis, one of the things that i took away is an open question at the end of this trip, and speaking with various interlochetors, is there doesnt seem to be a consensus. Thats one of the areas the u. S. And the countries that we visited will have to come to some sort of agreement on the nature of the problem to both resolve to come up with ways to interdikt the assistance, but also tackle some of the humanitarian issues. Just in closing, im sure that if the 50 some odd other members of our delegation were here, they would of course endorse the thrust of the remarks you heard, but they would have their own individual stories. Stories of engaging with local people and stories and shops and restaurants and that sort of thing. Stories about when we have when we visited for example the saudi radical Rehabilitation Center outside, you know, in riyadh, meeting with half a dozen guantanamo alumni, and talking with them about their experience, both in guantanamo and in the Rehabilitation Center in riyadh. Experiences, yes, of meeting multiple crowned princes in multiple capitals, and how they were welcomed on a personal level. So i wish that they were here to offer their human experiences to you. So all you get up here are the four professional analysts, giving our somewhat jaundiced experiences. So on behalf of all of them and all of us, thank you very much for being here this morning, to hear our report from our trip to saudi arabia, to oman and to the united arab emirates. Thank you. [ applause ] cspan, where history unfolds daily. In 1979, cspan was created as a Public Service by americas Cable Television companies. And is brought to you today by your cable or satellite provider. Tonight, on the communicators, were on location at bell labs in new jersey, for the first of a twopart interview series. Bell labs is one of the premiere Communications Research facilities in the world, providing work in radio, astronomy, lasers and information theory. The problem we have is we presented you with a ton of data, but not necessarily knowledge to think better. So in the next era, well connect everything to your environment, you, infrastructure, buildings, bridges, cities. So youll begin to see whats going on and automate that. Your energy will be managed for you. Ault of that requires a matter of change. The cloud has to move into the network to make that work. The network will become valued again and the devices will be everywhere, on you, in you, your car, infrastructure. So thats a big change coming. Thats when well see if increase in productivity. Watch tonight at 8 00 eastern on cspan2. President trumps pick to head the department of health and Human Services alex azar will testify tomorrow at a Senate Finance Committee Confirmation hearing. Live coverage beginning at 10 00 a. M. Eastern here on cspan3. Last month, the Senate Rules Committee met to consider a bill sponsored by senator lanor
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