Good morning, everyone. Im the director of turkey studies at the middle east institute. Im happy to welcome you all to our eighth annual conference on turkey. Each year as we convene this conference, we find interest in turkish matters. 2017 was very dramatic and difficult year for turkey and neighbors. We appreciate that so many of you are making time today to join us in our discussion. Our keynote speak er is a leadig voice on turkish affairs. She will provide a first hand report on the berlin. We have elected members of the turkish and parliaments on the program as well along side a leader in u. S. Diplomacy and expert analysts. Youll hear our guests speaking on three panels. To begin well examine turkeys environment. Our Panel Includes a recent member of the turkish parliament. Scholars who have been writing and following turkey. Off our Morning Coffee break well turn our attention to turkeys economy with the help of three turkish scholars who teach at Washington Area universities and a member of the parliament. Well hear from our keynote speaker at 1 30 p. M. Well follow with the days final panel looking at turkeys foreign relations. Particularly turkeys relationship with the u. S. , European Union and russia. We will be joined by legislatures from turkey and European Union as well as u. S. Deputy secretary of state for Southern Europe and the turkish scholar in that conversation. As you can imagine were delighted with the program we have assembled and i hope youll find the discussion valuable as well. We are recording the event. If you miss any part of the conference, dont worry about it. Just go back and you can listen to it online. One final note on todays program, for the last 71 years the middle east institute has been decaded to balance and nonpartisan programming and analysis. We work very hard so you hear to ensure that our invited speakers represent all sides of debate. You as the audience can hear diverse views and make up your own minds about controversial issues. In that spirit, this year, as previous years, reach out to prominent figures affiliated with turkeys ruling just as think tankers, journalists who are close to the government and opposition parties and scholars. We are very grateful to all the the speakers who agreed to appear today. I also would like to express my gratitude to mr. James holman. Hes our board member for his generous support to this conference. His Team Provided a critical expertise and support in making this conference possible. Its my pleasure to ask michael to greet you and introduce our opening panel. Michael, the floor is yours. [ applause ] its really a pleasure to be with you this morning. Just come back from germany yesterday evening and the times are not easy in germany as well given the Coalition Talks. Turkey does not play a role yet in the Coalition Talks but this will come up. I would like to dwell on three areas where i think we also will get some interesting discussions today. One is concerning domestic situation after the coup. The rifts aggravated between within the Turkish Society between turks and kurds. Dh is not the situation that should be welcomed by anyone. We should try to do as much to keep the Turkish Society together and not to split them. From my point of view, no Political Force to bridge these dangerous trends and maybe we can come Forward Together to give some recommendations on that. Economically, as you all know the turkish is on an all time low right now. Since 2000, Economic Development was very impressive. Now it seems to me that turkey is facing this middle income trap. In order to overcome such a middle income trap, Goldman Sachs identified years ago four area how you can overcome middle income trap. One is maco economic stability, political maturity, openness investment of trade and impro improvement in the quality of education. Lets see if todays conference can identify areas where turkey has fulfilled any of these requirements. On Foreign Policy, turkey and the eu relations are in deep trouble. The European Commission assesses that turkey doesnt fulfill the cop copenhagen criteria into the eu. The turkeyu. S. Relations are in trouble. Different views on syria, the syrian kurds, interleague, the zarab trial. The arrest of americans and the halt of Visa Services in turkey to name a view. The protests i would say and the violation of basic rights, the jailing of germans, german citizens and german journalists in turkey. The meddling of turkish officials in the german election campaign. The refusal to german lawmakers to visit german troops on a nato base and the linked relocation of units outside nato territory to jordan. This is unprecedented. It had happened. Ladies and gentlemen, we have a lot to discuss. Im really looking forward to that. To your input and to your active participation. I would like to thank the middle east institute against and the staff for making this event possible. Let me now introduce the moderator of the first panel. She is from Johns Hopkins and shes really, really informed and experienced turkey and middle east specialists. The floor is yours. Thank you so much. Thank you to all of you for coming. Thank you very much. Its a little different. We have much, much to talk about. I want to briefly introduce our panelists as well. You have their biographies in your brochure. Hes moderator to make a tiny grammatical point where ever i go. It says Peoples Democrats Party with apostrophe after the people. In fact the translation is peopl peoples because it means multiple peoples. We have the professor of Political Science at san diego state. We have an extraordinarily esteemed panel for this discussion. I was thinking about what are the issues i want to bring up and i wanted to publicize the event. I was trying to tweet about Different Things we can cover. I was thinking everything from the kurdish issue. Everything from things that touch on economy, touch on Foreign Policy. Its very difficult to understand the kurdish issue without understanding syria and iraq. Its difficult to understand russias relation with turkey if you dont understand the economy. Its a lot of connection among the panel well be seeing. I try to tweet about it. I couldnt even get a quarter of those issues in with the extra letters. Well leave a lot of time for questions. This is great audience. Im sure youll be interested to ask this panel your pressing questions. I want to start with a general question. Well kind of drill down into the specific issues. I want to ask all the panelists. Obviously, thinking about things that are connected. Difficult to understand any of the akps domestic and foreign policies or potentially moving up those elections as some are now talking about. What i want to ask panelists is what do you think the akp or the greatest challenge in the upcoming elections. Whether they be held in 2019 or moved up to 2008 will be. How do you think the party or he is or will try to address that challenge . Okay. Good morning. Since this is going to be the first time in which we had president ial elections, i think its important to emphasize that. Then this did not work out. You can also like how on earth the party wants to make the deal so they will have a chance. It means image well never take it. It will come into and selfdestruct. The ruling party, akp, making a deal with the kurdish nations. It was also very controversial. Now the challenge is coming back to your question is making sure that the turkish nation kept happy. This becomes prior concern. The person was in the next president ial elections or in 2019. Then the challenges we have different integral part. This is going to be a major challenge. Let me just make my own point. I look at the turkish politics, theres the secular guys and this has been going on since early republic. Obviously the story is much more complicated but what i want to say is hes very powerful, a strong leader. A at the same time his power depends on the majority. He needs to make sure he wins next elections. Thank you very much. Just to add onto a bit, i think the elections is a good occasion to look back on when trying to understand the dangers for the akp right now. We can see he really can be dictated by election before deck at a timing his policies. When you look at what happened with the Peace Process and how it wasnt benefitting him numerically and how he could suddenly swerve into the nationalist base we were talking about. He face a huge risk to whatever he does not just just nationalist base will be fragmented, but no election will probably do. Whether that is fragmented or not, in terms of the countrys economy for the first time, it will be at a stage where he probably wont be able to hide it as much. I think until now certain cracks have been covered pretty well but i think we have to be look at the case and how that could have a severe Economic Impact in the next few months. That will probably be a huge factor. I think people are expecting that now. Thats probably going to be a crack too far. We saw that attempted coup has strengthened his hand domestically in terms of consolidating his significant authority in all processes in the country. Its helped on his way. Especially if the case in new york, what kind of decisions come out there will probably be pretty significant for any election. That seems to be a little funny but something thousands of miles away in the u. S. Will have a huge domestic impact in the campaign well be the first elected president in the new system. How much of an impact shell have in fragmenting that nationalist vote. Im not too sure. No one expects her to make a huge gain or threat in any kind of authority or seat, take anything in that regard from erdogan. Hes been severely trying to consolidate especially in the past one and a half years after the collapse of the Peace Process. The challenge is, if any, will come from outside turkey. Excellent. For decades ive been critical of my colleagues studying in asia. They study something that doesnt matter at all. When you say someone, you dont before finding yourself in his or her shoes. I find myself in the same weird position discussing turkish elections that do not matter at all. Erdogan will never go with any election results. He will rig it, he will cancel it. No one can challenge him. He has full control over the media, economy and beaurocracy. Certainly policies, eu policy, u. S. Policies may hurt erdogan economy. The money floating from qatar may be limited, shrunk. That may hurt him. Hes a very smart guy. He always look at the coming trends. For example, there was a National Coming and i was expecting him to be damaged by this wave of turkish nationalism. So now, for example, im expecting secular wave. A secular backlash. He seem to be prepared even for that returning. Has no limitation to use any discourse, any means. One is economy which matters. Obviously, we are human beings. If we have an economy crisis, you find scapegoats. We produce excuses, blame someone in the party. In the long run, i think ak people, many of my friends and family at the political level, at the basic level, may are losing morality. Turkey is under a very unprecedented ethical crisis. The basic line is its totally gone which is surprising and disappointing and heartbreaking for me which is happening with a constant that claims to be very moral because of certain nationalistic they consider themselves moral people. It congresswomans to supported political leaders. In the very long run, there may be a certain level of free thinking morality, consciousness at the very heart of the ak we may be hopeful about the future of turkey. Until that comes i think the regime is well established. Does the opposition pose a challenge for erdogan or are other challenges much more worrisome . I think opposition and the ballot box are necessary evils. His key strategy is his weakness. Now the second stage is chp. Hes being tried for treason that can bring life in jail. Just a couple of days ak, erdogan indicted the whole 60seat party council. Those of you who have been following the news. As of last tuesday a couple hours before u. S. , zarrab case and a couple of hours before the chp leader was to announce erdogan extended families offshore accounts, Prosecutors Office issued an arrest warrant against me arguing that i was a witness. It guilty of providing a fake document. Now, i think this is erdogans main challenge. Needs to criminalize the opposition but at this point he can only do it in a farce way. In the Prosecutors Office is capable of checking the witness list. Even if i were there, even under turkeys state of emergency being called a witness to a trial is not a criminal offense. I think the key challenge is this. What do you do in a democracy thats just a ballot box where all the Major Players are criminalized. For example, just a couple of days ago, one of the akp legislatures said we should ride the house of the chp leader and confiscate all of its belongings to look for clues of treason. Now, sure, erdogan can do it. Meaning he can continue to criminalize my other colleagues. There are still a few who havent been indicted. Then ultimately when it comes to 2019 or early elections, he will need to play this game with us. Hes doing the same thing with the good party too. How will turkey or how will erdogan retain the semblance of any competitive authoritarians. It at least requires an iota of possibility that the opposition could win the elections. Even that semblance is necessary. 2019, we might not have that. At the same time theres very strong push for criminalization. Thats what ensures the survival of the regime. Survival of a ruler who has no exit strategy. My prediction is its quite difficult to predict anything. We will continue to run up to the elections. Live in a progressively toxic environment. Leftist, they will all be smeared. Simple societies too. Then in the last three months in the run up to the election, erdogan has to come up with a normally how wrecked and imprisoned, tortured, exiled. He has to come up with some sort of opposition like looking actors so there can be a ballot box at the end of this. I was not the only candidate. There are a few other candidates. How strongly erdogan cracks down on the opposition. There are always individuals in various political factions who might be willing to play what we call the neonationalist game, the hard liner game, prone to conspiracy theories. Yes, erdogan is not out there but there is a global conspiracy. Thank you very much. I want to turn back. I want to turn to the kurdish question. Ive written about name calling and the jailing of the to cochairs a and so forth, we see this criminalization. There was this understanding that the kurds would get some cu cultural or other rights would be given to them and they would support the president ial process. If thats the response they have seen if they no longer agree to support that, what would the Kurdish Movement have done differently . Was there anything they could have done differently to prevent the scene we see now . I get the impression we live in a country theres a master of puppets and this master decides on everything. Its a complete observation of Mass Movement in turkey. You dont see much with the exception but in turkey if you look more closely. You go beyond circles, you see vi vibrant, active society. I try to say theres a very strong tendency. At the same time theres a Strong Society. Its not that simple. Its much more complicated story. Coming back the your story, your question, if you are kurdish and it has many different faces. Its like the movement. Its been around for a long time. Do not always reflect what they want to achieve. Thats because the primary goal is to survivor which has been access on the very difficult conditions for more than 40 years. As long as they have people willing to fight for the insurgency then they can approach to make any kind of deal or negotiations. This is important to keep in mind. We can make the argument what happened in 2013 was like a miss at some point they need to make some kind of compromise. They need to find their tushish government. Erdogan is willing to give them some shamall concessions. As long as there are people willing to kill and fight, they always have leverage. Now turkey manage insurgency. If you look at what happened throughout the year, how many attacks they were a i believe to stage. Its kind of feasible insurgency. Its going to stay there. Its always some problem for turkish government. Before the president ial system, my belief is that the best, maybe the most optimistic way for the kurdish woman to be getting some concessions and being maybe like less violent is basically being part of a coalition government. There was a real possibility like in june 2015 after the first sign of elections. Theres no such possibility. He will decide on it. Its more like worst than what used to be the parliamentary system because more like possibilities for being part of a coalition government. There was some kind of real possibilities for Kurdish People to become ministers as long as this Peace Process was true. I can make more demands about the referendum and maybe we can keep it like for next time. The first thing id like to specify is that the criminalization of the kurdish calls didnt start with erdogan. This goes back a long time and the akp comes from a political tradition where in the 90s, its members of parliament. Activists were killed on the streets. This is the tradition, all the backdrop for the Peoples Democratic party. Secondly, the gra gramatic correction of all the people in turkey. In a lot of places, it has a prokurdish element but its not just a prokurdish party. A Progressive Party for all the people of turkey. For lgbti individuals. For that resistance. For the laborers and workers of turkey. Once we define it in that way, yes, the Peace Process was a huge opportunity for turkey. It more than played its part during its time. When we came towards the end of that process the choice was between, all right. It was a possibility for turkeys kurdish question to be solved. A lot of people dont believe that. There was a process that was dialogue. The leader from his prison cell was able to send letters to celebrations that were attended by hundreds of thousands if not millions. This is unprecedented in turkey. I dont want to say there was nothing at all. There was. There was a serious process going on. It prioritized more than anything else. At one point there was the platform wear. Erdogan wanted certain backing for his agenda. Could it ever pursued a process where the kurdish question would be solved but tur cue would be in far worse place. Yes erdogan may have sent that as a betrayal. At the end of the die the question came down to we can make an agreement with the kurdish population. We could extend certain freedoms, cultural freedoms for the kurds in turkey. This was about how much the kurds would back his agenda of consolidating all the institutions, all the power in his person. I think they made the choice. The deterioration of democracy in turkey would not benefit any of the peoples in the country. I mean to be honest, even the pkk was saying this theoretically in all of its statements. The pkk talks about turkey. In that kind of atmosphere maybe a lot of kurds could afford, well lets just solve our issue. Lets not care what happens to turkey afterwards. When it came down to this process, the kurdish question for a lot of kurds is tied in with the level of democracy in the whole of turkey. The two cant be separated from each other. The solution is tied there with turkeys standard of democracy and with erdogan thats taken a rapid nose dive and thats why maybe the only difference that to the june 7th elections may or should have been maybe. A lot of people criticized for not being open to a coalition with the akp. Have criticized them not being open to the coalition of akp. They had to turn to the mhp i personally dont agree with. If they had said we are working to working with the akp, we are okay withered go erdogan, it wo benefit any of the people, not just the turkish people and why i think the divergence to the htps Peace Process and pkk, too, important to specify. None of us can talk on behalf of the pkk. Even the pkks approach during that time was to prioritize the situation in turkey generally because i think they agreed the two cant be separated from each other. Sorry to wrap you up a little bit, he had talked about it being a Big Tent Party not procuredish and we saw the akp representing itself as another part of the population oppressed, pious muss lams. Do you think theyre important as ideology, mobilization, do we see the policies putting through such as education reform sort of to cater to a population or construct a population they would like to see in the future. Thank you for the question. Let me bring this issue together by another friendly disagreement. Starting with the first issue, the fact that 200 strikers were released, excellent. But it wasnt a result of social resistance, it was a result of the policy that made something mentioned of this conference of something happening in turkey, a positive thing happening in turkey. No. Positive things are not happening in turkey, no Strong Society in turkey. 5,000 academics were sacked. 150,000 employees were sacked. Why would you say theres no Strong Civil Society in turkey . Ill explain. 50,000 people are in jail for political reasons for mostly being blamed. Over 20,000 women are in jail and about half of them, i dont know the exact number are housewives. 660 of them have babies under the age of 6 in jail. Where is the Civil Society protesting the fact 660 babies are in jail. This is my disagreement. The second thing, i think we are underestimating what erdogan did against kurds. Turkish military never attacked kurdish towns with tanks and artillery before. Unprecedented, happening first time. That is not comparable with the previous torturing, et cetera, the first time happening. And crazying not having a coalition with erdogan is totally wrong. We have to understand the erdogan formula. The best thing done was to refuse to have any political bracing with erdogan, it was the right choice because the future of kurd is directly linked to the future of democracy. If they compromise it would be against the whole idea of establish ac democratic turkey. Let me bring to your question and my First Insight of the issue of morality. As i understand, more than half offered gans constitution, which means more than 25 of turkish waters are islamic conservatives. Slam is important and erdogan make this, too, almost the same thing. The boundary is extremely vulnerable these day is in turkey. The education system, there is strong emphasis on schools, even the Turkish Police we have seen on Youtube Video are taking off referring to koran and islam, et cetera and the people shared these videos celebrating. When they hear me criticizing saying youre in an apple state, no longer a muslim. What kind of secular state is this . My expertise is secularism. I encourage turkey to take the past secularism and versus the french and i am very concerned theyre taking an islamic path. And the conservatives, maybe expanding more than that one day realize what they are doing is totally against any idea of morality. If the kurdish towns are bombed, hundreds of babies are in jail, there should be some level of ethical principle and concern among these islamic constituents of islam rather than worshipping a strong man. Do you see it more as strategic tool something not necessarily genuine or do you see it as a basic misunderstanding of the principles of islam . For erdogan, its a political tool, an instrument. For the people, im referring islamic converts, its the genuine thing. Understanding of islam is more and more becoming political islam rather than mysticism, workshoping, their life, because it is in Foreign Policy, aggressiveness at home, having a strong state. This regime is more dangerous than camelism because it did not have religious legitimacy, never claimed the opposition is infidel. It was totalitarian regime i criticized for this years. Right now, there is a regime in construction that combined the understanding of resin with the upper state should be killed and the combination is very strong, very dangerous. It will take maybe generations to really face this challenge. In thinking about how to face this challenge before we turn it over to the audience because i know youre brimming with questions, i kind of want to ask you an about the possibility of potential coalition, whether early elections or held in 2019. Thinking about the outreaches erdogan has made to the nationalist, the role of islam, purges, kurd, what potential, why talked about the e party, what potential do you see have maybe a chp Party Coalition or what potential coalitions might we see . Thats the Million Dollar question meaning if there is going to be democratic transition in turkey, what would that government look like . You take a look at the polls today. I have to warn you that the polls probably dont mean much as a tool to predict what might happen in 29 because we might be in a completely different political environment, might have greater repression beyond our imagination. Chp basically. Lets assume that erdogan slows down a bit because he desperately needs political actors to compete against and he allows parties to run. Based on the polls we now have, the challenge is this. Chp plus e party i would call in the good old german sense a grand coalition. An eparty trying to move a far right party to a center right position and chp representing center left, that could be a grand coalition to restore some i will pick my words very carefully, sanity, just sanity. I dont have great expectations, restore san toy politics. Unfortunately, the numbers come short, meaning in a four Party Parliament with hdpantkp we end up with june 2050 scenario. Why . Turkeys key challenge is to bring in the kurds. Ultimately the challenge back in june was how to deal with chp, mhp, three parties that can never come together. Chp is the wild card here. People can contemplate the different coalitions. Similarly in this case again in 2019, people can contemplate a chpe party or chp colation, but neither of those options give you a majority. Because of turkeys deep run cleavages, its beyond todays imagination that the three parties can come together. This happens to be erdogans main advantage turkey is not only divided by class and rule but by simplicity and sect. Unless we see i dont know how, but a great exodus to the center right e party and certainty left chp, that can give a majority, which is not only matched in the parliamentary election but also in the president ial election. Its very difficult to imagine a transition. Allow me to end with a caveat. Even in my grand coalition center, theres still the challenge. Almost 90 of kurdish electorate would be out of such a grand coalition between chp and e party. They have extremely little expectation. When you leave them out of the grand colix unintendedly youre basically leaving out 90 of the kurdish electorate. These are some of the parts of turkish politics that end up pushing turkey further and further into a one man rule. Thank you. Before we transition to question and answer period for which we would like, if you have a question, to please come to the mic. Theres a couple of mics. While were doing that i will turn to my panelist on the right, respond to the outlook there is a weak Civil Society in turkey. We can look at repression of leftists in the 1980 coup. Do you agree theres a weak society in turkey and if not what might with we see with the elements pushing it forward. There is much repression in turkey but doesnt mean there is no robust civil part of turkey, two Different Things. Say erdogan was liberal, darling of the European Union and turkish economy until 2011, 2012 and gradually became this boogeyman everybody is afraid of. To understand the complexes of the turkish party, he coming back to this issue even if erdogan has stronger tendencies, maybe the most ambitious project by turkish governments to try to resolve the most important issue in the turkish republic. Those are top bottom issues. In terms of Civil Society. You can basically say lots of things he is a guy basically when i was 7 years old, correct me if i am wrong, he voted from 300 miles. You look at the countrys tenure for position, it is there. It is very important not to give the impression there is only a Single Person in turkey and his decisions make the ultimate choice. There is a regime he operates and what he says in july 2016, we talk about all the oppression, there is a huge attempt by the army to take over the country. Only the kurdish areas after that. If you think about that, erdogan has his own responsibility for whats going on in turkey. There are other actors and agencies also really have lots of influence on what is going on in turkey. Very briefly before we go to the audience. There was a conversation maybe the left and coast guardish movement and left and chp might be able to come together. Is that off the table or other actors that can fulfill that . I dont want to talk about other actors. I think i will sit on the fence a little bit, you look at what brought so many people throughout the country and look back and what the situation is about and you look at the situation now, we are in such a worse time. Yet, nothing like this is happening. I think i might tend towards the argument. A weak Civil Society question . Taken a huge hit. Obviously, i cant say Civil Society is no longer a force in turkey and dont think thats what im saying. After that, the hdp was there from the beginning. I think with the kurdish side of things there is a huge disappointment while in the west, when there is an uprising, cursed are you also there. When something happens in the east of turkey, cities are being destroys and mothers and babies on the streets for days after being shot by Turkish Security services, why is something not happening in the west . That creates a huge disappointment among the kurdish population. Saying that about the west in general and that gets us to the Foreign Policy panel. Great. Take some questions to the audience. Please come to the mics and keep your questions very brief and please direct your questions to the member of the panel. I have two questions. He kind of alluded to it. I traveled in martin a few years ago and the situation was very hopeful. The kurdish pochlation was excited about participating in the democratic process. Then there was a quick down turn. Do you know when that occurred . One when the hdp did not join the coalition, it was the end of the game at that point. Could you identify what caused this positive shift from being identified to the kurdish region. Does the professor think there is any effect of the television series, whi is now available on netflix that really romanty sizes the islam and righteousness of islam. Is there any plan to build up that kind of feeling within that turkish population. Thank you. Lets take a couple questions and have the panelists deliberate. Im based in washington, d. C. It is very difficult to ask questions to a panel of cassandras but i have only one question. Can you answer what major rights were denied to kurds on the akbar regime that garnered more kurdish than any other part of the country and appointed many many ministers of kurdish regime. Another question here. Stefan malik is my name. I also have two questions. One is generic. Do you expect turkey to have a democratic Civil Society overnight after 600 years of authoritian rule. And people overwhelmingly voted. So how do you think over night it can transform into democracy. The second is the coup. When i was there i researched in turkey several years, all levels of society, the Police Judiciary break. After the coup have been and 90 of us believe the cia was involved. 90 of the turks believe and they have the names. There is no concern among the opposition for the coup. The people in the street desfet the coup. How do you resolve that question and get to the bottom of it. How do you come to grips when they support all levels of society. Thank you very much. Very briefly because we talked a little bit about the turning points in the Kurdish Movement and how things went south . Very briefly. I think the turning point was the april 5th date, the last meeting occurred, staat, the process was being he was managing the process from one side. The 5th of april, ptkk fighters were withdrawing. Policy were going to aerodawn saying thepiece protest he wished for when it came to the polls. April 5th was huge. There was huge hope. That april 15th is very front. This Peace Process isnt having the impact im going for here and will be terminated for now. The pkk said it wouldnt be started to again, its fighters could withdraw outside to the borders. And when he criticized his own ministers for being part of such agreement, the june elections was a manifestation was what 18 was seeing on the policy. Im fascinated in the pop culture in applications and how shows can be used by the citizens and opposition, how would you respond to that quis about soap opera. I was watching it but no experts about ahtonism because they dont like it that much. There is some series of nationalism, all negative things complicated the turkish question. It didnt really take place concept. And turkish bases in turkey expanding is true about turkey discord and creating a fantasy going on. The cameras, i think, are unable to provide a deep discourse do village its. When they feel the antiwesternism, where is it coming from . Ive been living in the u. S. For 20 years, as a regular kurd in any ideological background i would bob considered a spy. Its unfortunate. Im not. You can laugh. Thats what they would say though. Im paid for that. The second question about the kurdish ministers in the akp and been taken and always talking kurd irk politics. Its not really something progressive for akp having kurds in politics, its really a constant in turkish politics. The last thing in an overnight change. Hurky has an automated regime, 60 muslim and 40 jews, the first truly multireligious parliament in the world whatsoever. Even today, its difficult to find a complex parliament. 1908, running independent states. 55 turkish and ethnic very diverse parliament. Then we had the elections. Turkey have already said negative things. Let me give a positive one. Turkey has a great history of politics. Thats why im very disappointed. And why im concerned about the third Party Country with no history. Before i take the question of the history, when we should expect drink opposition to turkey. We have history and experiences with turkey. How can we expect to see this happen overnight . The key is keep our eye on the trajectory. Is turkey moving toward rule of law . Do you process pleuralism, democracy, social inclusion or is turkey descending into one man rule. If that is our guiding light, i think the answer is simple. The demand here is not overnight d democraticization of turkey. It was moving forced the right darting as expressed in the Convention Rights and others such as this one turkey is descending into a blue tallying bloo bloody darkness. The goal is not to find benchmarks like iran or north korea, which will always make you look better, you can say compared to others, turkey is doing oosk because the best years are those years we had high benchmarks, we looked at the eu. Human tourist of human rights, we look at convergence with eu standards. If we start looking at syria, russia, iran as benchmarks, thats horrible. You would say theres massacres and torture. Are they any better than that today . I hope so. Why . The race is a particularly tough one right now because the world is not staying still. I know there is a rise in populism. Per capita rising, average school rising, people in absolute poverty. In this fast paced world turkey needs to pick up steam . The point is turkey needs to move up. And important is benchmarks. If we emphasize overnight reform. Are we moving forward or back. What are the rights the cursed have not been given or contentious. Really quickly. Does anyone know who among all the leaders in the middle agreement to a kurdish moment in history . [ speaking Foreign Language ] im trying to say we gave the kurds this and that ultimately, there are millions of people, tens of thousands of people from turkey and would join these soldiers. Theyre not being very satisfactory, it is not there is a huge increase in the number of kurdish ministers. I did a study which goes back for ministers to 1980 and governance and i looked at act am numbers of ministers. Jump of kurdish origin ministers. Basically similar to the 1990s. Look at the numbers, no, you dont see a huge increase. Obviously, there are some real gains. Look at the last two years, many gains lost. Cant speak kurdish in prison and cant write curtius letters. Akp bashing, its very easy to accept. In 2002 there were certain initiatives. I think the gentleman might be forgetting that only comes up to a stage if curskurds are lik 2009, the gentleman might be forgetting the significant photo handcuffed kurdish politics, two weeks after that local election success, tens of thousands of kurdish activists and elected officials were in prison. I dont want to go on board and go with the premise the kurds are the ungrateful ones in turkey. I will be asking two questions. I am an urban secular and i dont see a question about the june elections, june 20 elections being a missed opportunity. I think theres a part going unnoticed. At the time i was living with a turkish partner we sotted for mr. Demotish. Did not, she did. Once the election failed we were unable to set up a coalition government. The stadium i went to watch games blue up thanks to kurdish militants. The bus i took everyday to the University Got blew up. I dont think my partner could vote for ahdp in good conscience any more. I will be seeing her tonight and i would like to leave here with an argument to make on your behalf because i think its improbable, your party of the representative of adhp has to make to the urban seculars that reached out to your party, i hoped i would leave with another argument to make. The question about auctioneers party, one of the political structure is the election threshold. If she performs the way she seems to be performing seems like erdogan will get more votes and less seats in the way he came to power with onethird of the vote and two thirds of the seats. Do you think we could end up winning at the ballot and losing at the parliament. Thank you. One more here. Im here in washington, d. C. My question has to do with enduring popularity of mr. Erdogan. Theres all kinds of talk of him being all powerful and controlling, wonder if that has to do with power of bureaucracy across the media or also mainly because he also speaks a certain segment of the population picking up on certain themes no one else is able to address effectively. Part of my motivation, by the get asked by my european friends why hes so popular in europe among the turkish population. There is similarity there. Secondly, i have always wondered how everything seemed so positive in the early 2000s with the democratization agenda, touching on rule of law and civil rights and expanding civilian control over the military, and making electoral sense in the early 2000s to move on with this agenda and what changed in 2010s to give this impression turkey or edkp is headed in the opposite direction with authoritarian tendencies. Thank you very much. One more here, please. My name is andy from ihs market an economist covering turkey. Looking at what could be a projected direction for politics for the government is the zarib case finally be a smudge honored gan as he said prompts people to lose faith on him, shows the direct corruption that goes all the way up to him. Following on that, if there is a post erdogan world is that coming from the akpp or outside one of the alternative parties right now or a new party . I know there was much more talk about a split between the akp a few years ago, is that a possibility especially as evidence of corruption mounts. Excellent. Very very quickly, please. Im speaking later today. One of the consequences of one man rule in the world is institutions of whole adults becomes Manual Control one individual. Do you see that happening in turkey and if yes, what are the long term consequences in the post erdogan era if that happens. Actually a lot of related questions here in terms of institutional constraints and erdogans role and what might happen in terms of descent. Lets do the buyers remorse question about people who voted and are now disappointed. Didnt want to say the hdp approves in any way of that kind of violence whether from there or state security forces. There was a process whereby that kind of violence was sidelined more than two years. In order to insure that kind of violence doesnt return we need to empower the hdp, open the path of legitimate representation in turkey. I think their role is more significant than the other way around. Id like your friend to know the hdp is working really hard to insure that kind of politics does not return anywhere in the country. The responsibility there, i would argue falls with a government who has again who imprisoned who your friend voted for and the cochair of the party closed channels again. That staunld bombing was i think last year. Right now, there are clashes going on in eastern turkey on almost a daily basis. One thing id say the empowerment of the hdp can actually conduct its politics is going to be significant for that kind of violence not to return to urban centers the rest of the country. We only have nine minutes left. Why dont we group the panelists and let them choose what questions youd like to answer to . The question is very important. I grow you can make the argument there has been a huge indecision of turkey in the last five or six years. They basically have their followers in a different part of and getting the operations and the coup attempts, from my perspective there was a huge roll played. I dont know. But at the same time, yeah, it sound like it was actions nowadays. It may be a more controversial topic. The person with the urban secular background with the typical it is important to say part of the responsibility, you have to take responsibility. Nobody can be responsible for bomb attacks that kills civilians in the country. All the pitfalls and putting all your eggs in a single basket which is turkish democratization. At some point they have conflict and underminds the turkish dem croization, but if you just kill the soldiers, they will get upset and encounter. From a more realistic perspective. Did you want to speak to the popularity offered wan or post erdogan . Of course. We have lots of deplorables, so you can make an argument deplorables for erdogan and trump are in this country. It doesnt make sense, not an explanation. In erdogans case, you have to look how he does in 2002 and how the situation for many people in the country. From their perspective, huge gains all aside, they see real improvement in their lives over the 15 years. This is a major factor. But he is a polarizing people who love him and hate him. In terms of individuals who may vote for them, we will leave that panel. From the popularity and referendum he was expecting to get 50 and couldnt and now he is taking revenge from the mayors by firing them in away and still doesnt have 50 in popularity including germany. This popularity has been based on material progress and expectations, a strong man praying, muslim and nationalistic discourse. I think it is a very strong propaganda machine, very successful. Then the last thing about the impact, i think in the short run, it will not have any impact because there is a propaganda. The media is censoring the case and very little media in turkey and thats not one of them. In the future i have two scenarios. One diverse and the other best. Either one. The negative one is erdogan will stay, after himself, his soninlaw will continue. Eventually, there will be a secular backlash. This is a secularistic dictatorship. The best scenario possible is they will take from the mistake and crimes and immoral things they have done and turn into a learning process and turkey will become a democracy again. Thank you for your thoughts. Yes, i have done a couple of seed projections based on the first two polls available for eparty and my own sim millations show three party and 4 party seat distribution scenarios, akp manages to retain ooifts a razr in the victory or three party scenario super majority give being it the possibility to single handed make a new constitution if there is a need for that still. And it has a Silver Lining because now a tactical reason for them to survive and erdogan decides not to crush them because it can be safety to guarantee parliamentary majority. A Quick Response to the institutionals questions, i think in a decade or two when we look back and hopefully some of this insanity will be behind us, a lasting legacy, from 2002 to 2013 will be hollowed out institutions. Beyond the life term of these two individuals and ultimately, many of the structural difficulties, turkish citizens will have to live on a daybyday. Im not blaming everything on the 11 years, the hollowing out of the institutions will matter circuitly and have lasting effects. The last comments, what changed in 2010, i think what changed turkey was september 12th, 2010. Significantly correction and the support of the European Union pushed this. Many of my liberal friends and marxist friends and eu colleagues said this is the best thing since sliced bread. Its a good step. I and a few of my regressive colleagues fought hard against this referendum. No, this will lead to such a consolidation of power it will destroy turkey but we were the crazy secular old elite. What changed why, on september 13th from the point of view, the seculars were defeated once and for all never to recover again. The question was no longer how to destroy the stupid seculars, the question was how do we share the cake because now the cake is ours. Maybe lucky for us seculars, they didnt agree on equitable distribution of the cake and since that day they started how to slice up the take. I think the change in turkey, once you destroy not saying pleuralism, poliarchy, different circles of power, once you destroy that, 2010, it was doomed to be a down him journey for all of us. The most important stage in turkey political history is how to reconstitute polyarc y, how do we move from one man rule to a turkey where there arent centers of power not out of ben nefl lens and drink values, that we choose not to torture and kill and destroy one another. Thank you. Its excellent to look at some points we might not consider crucial in turkeys path forward, one of the things that changes in the 2010 referendum those involved in the 1980 coup can be prosecuted. You saw that in the trials, so thank you for highlighting that, some of the events we dont necessarily notice. Thank you very much. So many things are related to economics and you want to stick around for those panels and thank you for your participation. Thank you. The next panel will start at 11 00. Cspans washington journal, everyday policy issues that impact you coming up Tuesday Morning for discussion of the Supreme Court case on gay marriage and religious freedom with elizabeth of the Constitutional Center and the Judicial Crisis Network and Natural Resources editor talks about president trumps decision to shrink the size of two national monuments. Be sure to watch cspans washington journal live at 7 00 a. M. Eastern Tuesday Morning. Join the discussion. Tuesday an all day forum on women and leadership, politico joins google and the Tory Burch Foundation hearing from political and educational leaders on the role of women in the world. 8 40 a. M. Eastern here on cspan3. Tuesday, the Supreme Court hears oral argument in cakeshop versus Colorado Civil Rights Commission whether they have the right to refuse service to someone based on religious beliefs. Well be live outside the Supreme Court as the justices prepare to hear the case. Live coverage starting at 7 30 a. R. M. Eastern on cspan2. Cspan where history unfolds daily. In 1979, it was created as a Public Service from americas Cable Television companies and brought to you free today by your cable or satellite provider. Now, more from middle east conference on turkey, how erdogans political power has been boosted by spending and bread and butter Economic Issues and lacks economic reform and transparency and sustained growth and they talked about political crackdowns. This panel is an hour and 20 minutes. Our second expert group is in