Transcripts For CSPAN2 Rachel 20240704

Tonight, im very excited. Welcome, rachel beta for celebrating the release of hit and where itng republicans at their own game. As america into the election cycle that will its democratic future. Hit them where it hurts is the book for any democrat has ever bang their head against a wall when obviously reasoning failed to sway voters over to their. This guide is a lifeline to save american democracy in its darkest hour. Rachel bitter cofer is a political scientist and election turned politicaltrategist. Video offers interviews, analyzes have been featured in the New York Times. The post salon, among others. But a cofer was recognized for novel theory that predicted the size of the blue wave back in 2018 midterm elections m foreca. Tonight, rachel will be in conversation. Adam parker mingo, an american political strategist, consultant in who served as National Field director for the Democratic National committee in 2016 under donna brazile. So please join me in welcoming to politics and prose rachel bitter, cofer and parker mingo. All right, ill kick it off. Im adam parker, manco and. Thank you guys for being here on a cold friday. I got a ten month old in the back who cant be silenced. So you may hear him, but were here for. Rachel and rachel, an incredible person who, i dont know, maybe five or six years ago, i first started hearing about it was in advance 2018, but i first started hearing about her from people who didnt like her and i didnt like the people who didnt like her. And i thought, you know, it was a perfect opportunity to to really judge somebody by who their enemies. And then i got a little closer and, you know, this sort of hypothesis of of all that she to the table was to be true so she is not just a you know incredible seasoned person, uns come from outside of washington, d. C. And oftentimes she is being criticized. Its by a very specific group of people who think that they know how to run the numbers. The best. Ive been extremely impressed her and was so excited that this book came out and to have the opportunities here and ask you some questions and in addition theres time for you guys to ask questions of we dont cover any of them. I know people have kids and other stuff. So in the event you have to leave and you you really want to get a question out, let us know and just raise your hand and do. So with that, what inspired you to write this book that was such a kind introduction and thank you so youre right, i should be judged by enemies i keep in the twitter world. Yeah. You never beat boys. They get very mad when you do that. So i am so happy to answer that question. Inspired me to write that book. Watching the returns in 2020 and on Election Night and i knew, you know, they didnt call it for a couple of days. I knew we had hit what we needed to hit for the presidency and to get that dangerous, dangerous man out of office right. But i also saw, as the returns continued to come in, that we dramatically underperformed formed our potential down ballot and managed to lose like 15 seats in the u. S. House when forecast work, which is like hard database, not polling based, said we should be winning seats right and so at point i was telling people dont think theyre going to transfer the power peacefully and people thought i was nuts. Whatever they had done all their planning in advance and in plain sight. So i didnt feel like to like hat by sayg dont theyre just going to like, lose and walk away. Right. And i realize that the 2022 midterm was going to come hard for america and like, explain what i mean by that. In the second that unless and until we fixed how talk about politics how we do electioneering what are our top our strategy is the very base of how we do electioneering that we would probably get hammered in 2022. And if we did we may not even be able to host a free fair 2024 president ial election, especially in those midwestern states. So at that point is when i started to think how can i, as an outsider, as you pointed as a person, has no role index into washington, d. C. Or york city . How can i democrats to stop doing this wrong as fast as humanly so that we dont all collapse into a fascist hellhole . Right. And i admit that does kind of crazy to be like, im going to go try do that. So, you know, vote for folks. Been following me long enough. They know i initially went to an i created strike pac of make some advertising to show what i meant about negative partizanship and branding and all of these things that i discuss in the book. But at the end, ultimately, i had the opportunity to work directly with people like jamie harris and the dnc, others, and knew that i could have more then and there inside, outside. And you know the book was like, okay, can i were getting were getting across to places in michigan and arizona, other places, but were not this not something thats ready to roll out in 22 across the board, not ready to roll out in the virginia cycle the next year that would be coming. And then, of course, year where the whole fate of american wont be on the ballot and. I knew i could write ways to put this information, but ultimately what mattered was that it doesnt work unless people read the book. People have to know about book to read it. And therefore i decided the best thing to do would be try to do the improbable and publish a National Book with, you know, a real publisher. Im not i was an academic published you academic publishing is very different and that way the knowledge thats in my brain could be transplanted into brains all across that are activities that are, you know justitizens online that are running, the parties that are running committees, that are running campaigns. You know, so the consultants, everybody would be able to understand some basic truths about the american electorate that should and must shape our strategic approach to electioneering. And so thats why i wrote the book. Im really, really excited that. Erin murphy joined me on the book. I could never be more grateful for him. My cowriter on this book who helped me make sure that what i was saying to you guys and the way it was presented was that anybody could understand and not wonky, academic. And so i do want to give a shout out to my coauthor, hes the best decision i ever made. And the book would be nearly as good without. His assistance. I think the hypothesis how do you get something done really quickly knowing you, you know, if you tell if rachel says shes going to do something, shes going to do it seconds later and thats how quickly she moves. But thats not how quickly just about anyone is moves. Sometimes the yellow tape is helpful, sometimes its not. But that a lot of sense in terms of why you put this into a book but that book has to be shared by lots of people so everyone obviously read it and pass on the word what do think is a key takeaway lesson that and love Jaime Harrison but the National Party as a whole if you had to highligh■t one could take away from this book that you have to brand your as an extremist that you escape partizanship and i in is a trained political scientist that studied American Voter behavior voter psychology campaigns and elections and polarization from an academic quantitative perspective, which is very different than like, you know, philosophizing about it. Right. And my frustration, really, the whole reason i even got into the forecast sting work was i was so frustrated when. Or cooke or even sabatos crystal ball at that time and not see them recognize how we have a new thing in the electorate called mass polarization. Its a thing. Its not just a word, its an actual condition that the electorate has entered and grown evolved into. That is impacting how people make decisions, how they behave what theyre willing ttolerate and all kinds of other. And so, you know, getting people into the brain of a political scientist, the main lesson that for some reason has never translated and even though its been known for 70 years now by academics, is that the American Public folks, they dont know anything about politics. Okay, like our worlds do. And certainly here in d. C. And in the in new york city, everyone you might know does. But if you go out into the real and Start Talking to people about complex political anonymous like, you know, this jury verdict from. Trump they are they. Its not like im going to go into my if im a barista at starbucks tomorrow like, are you doing im great. Did you hear about trump verdict . Youre like, thats not outside of our bubble. Okay . And our little bubble is i mean, its so insular that. I have had a really hard time explaining to people. Actually, the amber heard johnny depp relationship fight trial thing that happened in 2022. More people interested in that than the repeal of roe versus wade and like more people were like, i need to know what happened between johnny and amber. Then wait a minute. What is this thing about abortion . Right. And like you think about what that means. It means that that the public does the public is not reacting a lot of stuff. Some of its partizan, polarization. Like republicans are never going to say joe bidens doing a good job. But a lot it is complete and total ignorance. They dont know that there was a coup plot that, there were fake elector schemes that they tried to steal, you know, the Voting Machines and almost clear marshall like no one knows that its a for us and why that matters is that voters average americans were still talking about 50 of the Adult Population tt wont even bother to vote. We got it to like 60 something in 2020. And that was a historic okay, but still means 5 of people who are like you and me, they may even look any different than you and me. They may be college educated, they may not didnt bother to vote between joe biden and donald in the midst of a pandemic where 3000 people were dropping dead on a daily basis. So thats clay that were working with. And then with even the half thats somewhat engaged they dont they might know who joe the joe bidens the president , but they dont know that the Republican Party controls house, right . They dont know even if they do know that. They might know that. They dont know what that means for legislation they dont realize when immigration doesnt happen that its actually House Republicans refusing to put bill up thats killing the bill and why when you look at polling data and they and you know, they were making a big deal out this last week, look, voters blame and not trump, even though trump kill the immigration deal. And if you start to think about, okay, no one knows nothing, no wonder they arent to that. And the political scientists that discoveredy went on to add dont worry, america, because voters have a thing that they they can rely on that they dont need to know a lot. Theyany particular politics, john, you know, or policy, whatever, because they have this thing called the party label. And they can that to categorize their political world, basically into two spheres, right. And so i may not know who what jane smith stanton, i know anything about her platform. Never been to her websites. We havent donated to her campaign because only freaks money to politicaldidates and thats all right i couldnt you know theres nothing about about her that i could know as a but i know im going to vote for her because. She has a d next to her name, right . Its telling me this womans on my team and most people even the ones that lie about it actually do have a team about 35 or so of the electorate that are independent. But theyre prodded. Half of them will admit, yeah, i lean to the democrat where lean to the Republican Party and data after dataset election after election that those people basically behave the same as someone who admits that theyre a partizan okay. So you have this thats going to dictate the vote choice for 90 of the electorate in such a powerful way that if amanda here, my friend amanda, if i didnt know she was a woman i didnt know she was white or black, i didnt know was older, young, urban, rural, suburban, all the that you hear analyst out on tv, kind of focusing on. I dont need to know any of that. I dont need to know any of it. Just give me a big black dot and give me a party label. And nine out of ten times, 90 of the time i will be able to predict that persons vote choice a year out from the election. And no specified of who those candidates going to be. Now, if you think about what that means and how you hear contemporary american politics discuss, but you dont hear a lot of conversation about how powerful of a vote predictor partizanship and, you know, we created or our side that has evolved to us not realizing that you to sell the party brand if, the voter at the end of the day is going to go on that heuristic. Then its going to be whether in whether tim ryan can a million hands of class whites who have declined and to maga and theyre all going to have great conversations but second they get into and he can pretend he can tell people im not a real democrat know im not one of those democrats im a moderate. I want get stuff done for you. But at the end of the day, theyre going to go in and see that product label that the next to his name. So unless you have broken that brand allegiance and made the connection then youre not going to win over those votes. Thats how we have lost so many voters to the republican who is, of course, running that exact strategy and their brand into that into the voter file has been about us. Its always us. Its all we everything that they do in electioneering, outward focusing and, they focus on us. And its about two things. Youre driving strong turnout with issues that motivate people like crt in schools. So thats red meat for republican base. Yes, but it was also the bucket message. Okay. So its one message that that combines them all, rules them instead of what we do, where we havs really micro targeted, then we have some persuasion messaging where were like, look, val demings is a motorcycle cop and she is going to get stuff done. They we have incredible candidates mean massively on paper, objectively better people that are qualified good, that are temperament, better, everything they lose y because. Were running campaigns where were trying to sell the individual, were minimizing partizanship. So were not branding democrats as good. And all they hear is democrats as bad and were not wedge the Republican Partys extreme against them to make sure these people that we now know and understand dont know much about politics and really dont care to, at least for them to hear one thing, one thing about the Republican Party than what theyve already perceive about it, which which polling data tells us low taxes, good on the economy, good on defense. Even after these last 20 years where they have been, you know, bad on all those average people tell pollsters all the time who is good on the economy. The republicans. Thats their brand. Okay. So at the end of the day, we have to lean into partizanship. Yep, we have to ride for the brand and it should always be a brand us a brand down them in that approach. So i can totally how defining your opponents brand would work with any normal candidate up and down the ballot. But donald trump versus joe biden. How do you define donald trump and i guess. I would maybe one comment, but also a■ question in first of al, theres been five or six things that have happened today, right . Already just today, people forgot that six days, seven days ago, he said he did nothing in four years for guns. And then we had another mass shooting. So how do you define, donald trump, in this sort of constant way where its happening every single day, if youre the joe biden. Right. And then, too, i just guess an asterisk from what i can see. I dont work for them. I think that Biden Campaign seems to be doing a better job, or at least at this sort of new a january 20, 24 version of a campaign that weve never before in terms of responding and how how does that play into what, you know, defining . Yeah, i mean, the biden team im dont i dont lose sleep at all right now over the biden Team Strategy i know its to be humming theyve already set it up to define trump and the republicans as a threat to your freedom to your health. Well security and safety is what i say in the book. And i know that theyre going to pound that message pretty hard. Where im worried is is in the swing map, especially on the senate races, because in the book, talk about centralization and coordination, how they you know, they have these infrastructures that theyve built. And i lay those out and and how they operate and help them. But one of the most important things that they have is coordination. So i use virginias 2021 governors race, crt. Crt is something i had never heard of, probably in january of 2021. And i know almost every dumb thing you could possibly know. Okay. Because i monitor maga a lot, right . And i had never heard of crt, but as soon as i did and saw what they were doing, i realized, oh, theyre going to theyre g take something no one has ever heard of. And that is so we get stuck on that. Oh, no one knows what fascism. And the republicans are like, thats right. Because we can define any ambiguity in that gets filled with the voters own personal fear. Right. So you know, we were laughing at stump reporters asking why or, you know, or what crt they cant define. It doesnt matter because. They defined it in their in their own way and usually that way was not making me feel bad about being white right. Thats what it came down to. And i point out in virginia in 2021, all the state legislative races that three statewide, so is ags secretary of state and and then the governors race what the campaign was completely devoted to crt and they took something i had never heard of, let alone other people and made it the define issue of an electi■on cycle. So by fall youre having voters in polls about crt, right . I mean in high degrees. And now we all know what crt. Okay. Something no one had ever heard of within a year, a defining issue and you will never sell me that sweater vest. Glenn, as i to call them, sweater vest. Glenn sweater vest. Glenn gives a about race in schools. He doesnt give us a scrap of intention all to anything about Public Education because hes a republican and republicans eight Public Education. But it you know, you dont how it doesnt take a stretch to imagine what glenn would like to be talking economics business policy, stuff like that thats what glenn if he was asked, would have been out on the stump doing because thats what hes and thats what he would sell. And then all the state legislative candidates, some of them would talk about this and some will talk abo that, this and that, thats interest driven. But the Republican Party is able to do that, we need to be able to do is say, hey, we have found this powerful issue thats very emotive, thats freaking people out. Lets all talk about and define our campaignsthey have the right media machine, but you want it if youre going to create a cacophony and mainstream media, you need a lot of noise and. That layering up effect from state legislative candidates up to the governors in secretary of state ag races cause the to pick up the narrative of crt and then what did we do . We did what we always do. We had a factual discussion about how crt isnt really a thing and its not taught schools. And even if it was, is it really so bad to acknowledge Structural Racism . And Tony Morrison has a pulitzer and whatever, like and im like texting jamie, you know, l if ro talk about Public Education, then we should be like, yes lets talk aboutuse every day im sending my eight year old to a school and every day i tell him when hes leaving the house, i him, i love him because in this country the Republican Party is america that youve built. I know if hes going to get slaughtered at school today or not. Right. So of playing defense and defining crt and like it was on everything for like three months, msnbc all this plays what we should have been doing is reminding americans, the Republican Party will let your children die before they stand up to the gun lobby. Right. The the Republican Party have taken American Education and the k through 12 system that you guys grew up in and turned it from the best in the world to the worst of the world right. So we should be going counter we should be defining them around one salient thing or theme land. I call it threat to freedom because you can tie in climate, you can tie in abortion, whatever, but we need to get all of machine that we do have because hanging head and going oh, we dont have fox news. Weve been doing that now for 20 years, folks, so we dont have that stuff. Got to start doing what we do have. We can start doing it really fast and really well so that we can compete with the noise machine. So when we think about biden and worried about that, what im worried is that the rest of the ballots from the state legislative races in places like michigan or ohio up wont see how important it is to run■y the maga extremism and make sure that voters dont walk into a ballot box and mark an r because. All they know about republicans is theyre good taxes. Sure they see the modern Republican Party. Theyre not going to look on their own. Theyre not getting it on their social a entertainment and celeb stuff and cooking stuff and fun stuff. Were sick people that like, okay, our algorithms are very different, but like regular twitter, like all of political twitter is actually very small, which is what ellen found out when he bought it and start actually, im hurting like most of the business on twitter is about celebrity stuff. Are twitters are very, very weird algorithms and so we have to if we voters to know theyre facing the collapse of american democracy and what that means to them not to other people, not to outgroups humans are wired for selfinterest and tribalism what is going to happen to them. Their retirement, their Social Security, their children, their wife being tortured by a death panel of republican politicians. And we do that. I think we have a really chance of saving democracy in 2024. Im going to corctng. You said you said secretary of state, you meant lieutenant governor. And im always saying that because shes now disqualified for running for president United States and. Nobody can fact check uscspan , though. I know what you meant. But leading to the next piece, age, what do we do about this age conversation and was more pointing that out because we all say that something we mean to say and we say that different way and hes just getting eaten alive for it. He is. And if you if anybody if you read the book, youre going to learn how the Republican Party has that■ eat it ecosysms so t have anything like it. But they also have our ecosystem. I would just explain how they manipulated it with. Crt they man of the Mueller Report, the muller, if you read it, finds lots of collusion. It says were not going to charge it. But lots of collusion. The barr memo, though, came out three weeks before, and because hes the ag, the press took it like look line and sinker just like with the her report last week and helped amplify it and if you ask average people not even maga just average independent type,as there collusion . No there was no collusion, right. They know what barr did. Barr said happened not what the Mueller Report says. So with age, theyve been working now for two years, they a paid infrastructure on their digital and so like a very expansive Digital Infrastructure i pretty much any two bit grifter on twitter thats a maga grifter has a million followers ok and thats a lot on twitter especially if you compare it to some of the progressive counterpoint people that would be on there and they have been very shrewd. Did the same thing with Hillary Clinton starting 2014, two years after benghazi when they started to finally investigate benghazi because realized Hillary Clinton was a and be running for president right so you know they they manipulate our own system to us to respond and do respond predictably and if you look at day that came out a couple of weeks ago yeah i saw this making its rounds. Voters think that biden by 1520 points is senile but dont think that about donald trump okay now if you guys like i know i keep harping because this seems to be the hardest part of getting the book to people to the what im trying to say in the book accept the fact that no one follows news and information politics. Right. And then imagine like, okay, who have i heard things about in terms of infirmity personality, ageism, right. They dont hear anything about donald trump. All you hear is about donald, about joe biden. And theyve been, you know, paying digital to go make thesea stutter or trips over something. Its a its a video that goes viral online. And it has really created this within the public thats there thats before the war. Her report last week. Okay. So thats why i was deeply critical when. The white house decided to turn down the super bowl interview again. If you accept the premise that no one knows anything and. Its very hard. D i. And theres diversifier meant with all the choices we have or streaming, no ones in a common information environment. It was in place until the mid thousands. Everyones in their own world. If you accept all that, then you realize voters are telling us they think biden is old or we should have probably taken the offer unity to put him in front. 127 Million People no matter they that he can because in their in their perception he cant even speak they they have created caricature of biden that is so profound folks that people like my parents think that he might not even be able to like think on a day to day basis. Okay so its a long wind up to this. The temptation is and of course, they rolled out the talking heads on sunday. Youre going to have to do the defense. You know, bidenyojust talked tk and we a complex trade agreement. Hes biden, right. We could do that all day. But at the end of the day, we have to neutralize the issue. If donald trump has one advantage over joe biden and it shouldnt be an advantage, we all just discuss that. But it is right age issue. Were uniquely lucky that theyve picked donald trump because it turns out that guy is almost brain dead. Okay. So we to sure that we show america with paid advertising, with all the digital stuff that we as much as humanly possible how infirm and mentally like unwell donald trump is because youre not going to convince people that joe biden is not senile. But what you can do is take that negative and neutral lies it by making the other candidate appear just flawed in that one care one one component part. I dont think hes going anywhere because as mary trump has said many times that donald trump eats so many preservatives hes literally preserved. Right. And hes just here with us. So michigan and wisconsin should democrats be worried about polls. Theyre okay so right before christmas, i put out something on my blog the cycle on substack you can access it for free if you want to. Its also you can sign up and pay if you want to. But but mostly just the informations important. I was like, i cant let people go through christmas. This theyre all going to be unhappy. Theyre not going to be able to like have the holly jolly because all these polls. So im going to put out something to give people the amount of modicum of that i can offer you. Okay . And what that is, is we have severe limitations with polling data due to lots of reasons and some of them youre probably aware of Response Rate and sampling and internet, the phone and all these other things. But the biggest problem that we have is that the electorate is flux right now. Its declining and realigning especially along education and you to at the end of the day when you have 800 respondents in the survey and i should know because i was a pollster for five years you have to decide and im in a view this information to reflecthathe elek like in terms of its demographic composition black, white or, young, urban, rural, whatever right. And the reason i need that is that allows me to figure out the partizan composition because those demos predict which party youre going to be at. You know, some of them are very clear black voters vote for democrats 90 of the time, right . But others are more mixed anyway. Can get a sense of that. Partizanship and then kind of estimate from there, right like, well how how to how to getve or. But i lost my train of thought actually sorry, thats paxton. Yeah. No, i know. Its okay. Love babies. I love babies. Yeah. Michigan, wisconsin. So so. So what . What i put for people was this. Okay, look, the polling data has a bunch of flaws. We dont know how to wait it. We dont. We know that there will be more noncollege educated voters showing in 2024. But right now, im not convinced will even see the turnout saw in 2020. Right. And so like it so much of it is to the pollster the questions weighting the sample and then the end of the day, folks were surveys and people are so mad at the horse race surveys. Let me tell you, we are asking surveys to do something. They are mathematically not designed. Do they have a thing called, a margin of error . They can only■e estimate it witn this margin of error and. What we want it to tell us in a toss up race that we know is going to end up 4951 is whos going to win okay, but it cant tell us that because if it says trumps 51 and bidens up 49 it could that trump has as much as 53 or it could be as much biden could have as much as 52. Right . So youre talking about these large intervals of just of unconfident about that. You need a great deal of specificity to determine a poll. So theres that as well. But worried about the polls at all because every off off year and most of the polling is still there. Were getting into the new year now, the election year, and things will start to change. But most of the measures, what public knows about politics the president and theyre never happy americans are never happy. Okay . No matter how good■ is, were never going to be happy. Okay. So youre youre seeing kind of like a latent incumbency. You know, democrats are more still to admit when biden does something wrong. If you dont like hamas and and the gaza policy, youll tell pollsters, im mad at joe biden. Republicans wont do that. Dude okay. Like that. Their data is steady, steady, no matter what does. Hes a great guy. Theyre never on. And so im not surprised that bidens been polling. I feel like the summer will be the first time we can really use polling. A good indicator, but we do a really good indicator. And this is why i wrote the article and is all the elections that have happened prior to dobbs post. After we lost, we became the president because we became the party at that moment and all the enthusiasm that we had during the trump four years went away. And thats why virginia was so rough in 2021, because that went away. Were all fat and happy because now weve toppled trump. And for most people thats where politics ends at that top level. And what happened with dobbs and i knew this was going to happen with dobbs and dobbs was a once in a generation, once in a half a century level seismic political event was the Enthusiasm Gap that had favored republicans as the out party and was going to power this midterm effect got washed away because suddenly we had a reason to be freaked out again. And you see that happen right after virginia. Too late, right but a couple of months into, they leaked the memo and then ever since then, what weve seen is an overperformance. Democrats in every election competitive of races where a lot of spending and campaigning effects were you implemented and then in places even really long shot stuff where there was like a token democrat running and there wasnt any money to field a campaign. And if you take all those races after. Dobbs prior to dobbs, its. 8. 8. Advantage for democrats, eight points. And that may change because, you know, we have more data sets going in. But i mean, new york was ten points, right, the other night. Yeah so what thats saying to us is that the enthusiasm,e indepee imagistic impression that 15 of the voter pile thats in maga. Donald trump a little bit, right . Like its still this this we were telling this guys a threat to freedom and there were and then he stole our freedom, right . So it made it like very concrete and i told people in that article and i listen if it was the opposite, we were winning in all the polls and then losing in all of these special elections, getting hammered, you know, giving up the senatehouse, 30 h, not losing and flipping the virginia legislature, which i know adam probably had a big role in in 2023 last night or this week. Special election in new york at the signal was very, very clear we have we need to go up against them. People are motivated because theyre afraid and if we run right strategy we should be able to win in the fall. But that said, were talking about a swing map of six states. Were going be talking about 100,000 votesand theres nothinn do to. Take that burden away from us like we going to have to sweat it out all the way to election day. If youre looking or for the big reject, its not going to happen, folks. Were going to make it clear to america this is a choice between. Democracy and autocracy this is what losing democracy will mean for you and i want you to understand, 60 million americans are going to vote for fascism. Okay . Theyre going to vote for. And we have to outvote them, it is our only hope. And you can help by buying a copy of this book before you leave the inside. So so democrats are are really good at two things driving people to the polls and driving ourselves nuts, right . Yes. So kind of on the dobbs piece, you know, going into all of these elections in kentucky, tons of bed wetting, andy beshear does incredible. I mean, he also people forget beat matt bevin, who was basically like trump jr but at the same time, you know, there is an incredible victim that came out and did an ad for andy beshear in the state that was part of that success. The suozzi seat holding a majority in pennsylvania is the bedwetting always going to be there and its like a good thing because it motivates us to keep on. I mean, part of me feels like after the Mueller Report, its better sometimes just to have zero expectations going into things because. The evs, your expectations, youre not disappoint and youre pleasantly surprised when you find out, you know, tom suozzi, his opponent conceded to him in an environment where that doesnt really happen much anymore. Yeah, i mean i think were really fortunate like the election twitter bros world is you know they are very convinced that they missed polling of education waiting. Theyve been over educate like wait theyve been wait doing real weirder things like more waiting more counting on, i think than need to on education, waiting i have an education question following this. Okay. So, you know, i like like we dont we wouldnt need to bed wet if everybody that was on tv or in the newspaper or published in the New York Times thats talking about elections was an actual in elections. But since most people are not theyre a practitioner expert because theyve worked on campaigns or theyve run for congress or whatever it is, theyre not systemic academic in experts. So there are so many that, like the media hyper on that. Im at home and im like, thats not how any of works. Am and i thought i wanted to give you the book. You know, that front half should make you feel better about of the things that you see and hear on tv that are just plain wrong about how voters behave and make their vote decisions. But yeah, it is. It is a good feature to have right now. I would be much more worried. You guys were completely like, oh, its going to be fine. Were going to be fine. I be. So i woulde how shopping in canada. So the boys want to keep running. Polls highlighting how much voters hate biden and how its so competitive and this and that. I say bring it on, lets do it. Keep that data coming. Because if we go into november complacent we will lose. And so, you know, its a very useful posture that we end up in in this. The is asset that we, you know, will need to exploit. So its just kind of going back on to that from an activist standpoint, like were in washington, d. C. , and oftentimes, you know, we know its a going to be a great jury pool. Donald trump, but also know its 90 goes our way. What can folks in washington, d. C. Do . You know from like an activism standpoint, you know, i still think thats sort of the bread butter. But how does that play into some of the tools that youre providing in your book. Yeah, sure. And to me, like, you know, the reason give so much probono love to the grassroots is because i understand that everything begins ends with the activist okay every victory everything weve accomplished its the people who for free are blowing three or four nights a week on political activist the most important resource any party could ever have right. So those i want to make sure that their advocacy is effective. Post carding. Its one thing to send someone a postcard, its another thing to tell them something in. That postcard, a veil. A second to glance at and actually read. Because im sad to say, probably a lot. Those postcards never even get written. I see all the small print and all the detail and no ones reading it. Even though. Its handwritten and the goal is to have it read from the mailbox to the recycle. I to those that recycle a book, a message and a glance test. Because think about how you when you get a roofer direct like right unless you need roof like if you need the roof youre like, oh, wow, this is great. But otherwise you like you glance at it, youre like, oh, its a roofing thing. Boom into the recycle thing that folks, thats how people about our stuff all the love and the joy and they should we include this and that. Oh my god, we forgot this thing, they dont care. Okay. So what we want to make sure, especially physical direct mail, which is an extraordinary narrowly heavy expense for especially because you have to do it multiple times to have any effect at all is, you know, make make sure the point gets across. They want to get it across or not. And the republicans have done. Thats very well. In fact, almost everything that im bringing to this i took from the Republican Party and watching michael steele, you know, go from the republicans will never have power again in 2009, because that was the conversation that killed economy. They got us into that iraq war boondoggle and they were literally having meetings. This town, the Republican Party, where theyre like, no ones ever going to do for us again. And Mitch Mcconnell is like, watch. Okay, were not going to give obama a thing. And then the public will blame obama because they dont know if we even exist and has that strategy worked for Republican Party. Yes, it has. Right. Is it working right now at least as as of last week when that first poll dropped . Yes it is because people only heard Immigration Reform failed. They blame it on the president and regardless of how it failed. So getting you know that across is so so paramount and you the other thing i want to say about the activists especially the gotv ones because that is of the activism actually talking to people youre knocking at the door very personal. So we have these are the most committed people. All right. It doesnt help you to show up candidate and leave feelinga like, man, that guy and i work from different sides of the aisle, but i feel like he got me and he even like connor right now, dude, hes going to walk into the ballot box. Hes going to see the ds. Oh, that guys a democrat. Should i not vote for him, dude. And so if youre going go to the door, youre going to send to do that, lets sure, were sending them to be Brand Ambassadors to sell the whole party, to sell the whole party slate of candidates and to make a case to these people. Why the party is not good them. Right. Weve got to start telling the story of reagan comics. Were 50 years into this economic experiment. Prior to that, coming out of the postwar period, we the biggest greatest economy, the most incredible industrial, you know, and military strength in the whole world. We built this thing. And then in the eighties, like we got to kill the beast, we got to strangle baby, we got to starve the beast and its been nothing but american carnage ever since, right . So we want to make sure if were going to send people to a door, its going to be writing postcards. If going to be calling people that were not wasting our time. Its not it doesnt help us to have good conversations. What helps us is convincing people to stop buying the republican brand and to start buying cars either by default or by a compelling contra. Republicans want to take away your 35 insulin. Right . Like gave you 35 insulin. But the Republican Party is coming for it. If we arent doing that, if were telling people congress, got you some insulin, thats not good enough. People dtalking. So you have to be very specific if youre talking about Gun Legislation being blocked, it doesnt help you at all to tweet act because who in congress is not acting the republicans . And we think everyone just magically knows that when we say big and big oil and in congress that were talking about republicans, they do not. They do not. We must tell them very, very explicitly, you do not have this thing that you want because the republican will not give it to you. And i thinthats you a great thing that aaron did in the book. Well, which was help them make this down. Basically, a sixth grader could understand and take the tools to before one goes and buys three copies each, we have a microphone phone for any questions. And if you could just wait to have the mic when you ask the question. So anyone listening online can hear it. And you also to sing karaoke. Oh, no, you dont want just so its amanda, two of my favorite posters. I both of you. But im here for for rachel. I love you too, adam. I love you, too. Im sure. Ali. Really . The pollster. Yeah. My my question. So im originally from arizona, as you know, is a huge swing state, heavily republican, a lot. My friends are republican. From there. Most of them i flipped over to the democrat side, thank god. But i have a few stragglers that no matter what, ive tried to show them evidence. Ive tried to explain to them, si hypnosis, i dont. I just dont what else to do with them. And theyre just like in denial. How do you deal with, like, like friendships . You dont want to end the you know, you still about the person, but its just painful. And ive tried to ive tried to go through every thing and i dont how else to get through to them. Yeah, yeah. I mean, unfortunately, some people i mean, theyre guys were were seeing something weve never seen in this country before, as it were. I mean, we dont have polling data, the civil war time period, so we dont know. But in terms of like, you know, the last 100 years, we are in position where probably maybe le are in the midst of a mass psychosis of that. Okay. Like earth to reality, which is what nicole or rachel, whatever it earth one earth to like. Theres we are living on earth one everything that happensn earth one like the court case is all earth one in maga world and i dont know how much adam you know monitors. I have to monitor them a lot■ in world. There are some truths that they feel are selfevident. Number one, joe biden is not a legitimate president. We cheated and stole the 2020 election. Number two, the Covid Vaccine will kill, not covid. No, no, no the Covid Vaccine. In fact, if had it, they dont even want you to get your blood anymore. Theyre trying to get state Bank Agencies to tell them this is covid vaccinated blood. Okay, like that, or itll win you a championship. Right . Right. I mean, in republican world, donald has never done anything to deserve all of the legal attention that hes gotten. Okay. So were talking about a situation which a good chunk of our friends or neighbors or coworkers, you people that were not in dc, but, you know, other places youre living and working around areychosis event where i think about how rational it is to go see, though, the capitol building. You believe if you believe that the election has been stolen, that your you know, your president is kicked out and its all a unconstitutional, you that which we all know is crazy. But they believe it, then you can understand rationally why would show up and then go and in bear spray Capitol Police officers egos have been radicalized and unfortunately amanda the answer that is theres not much can do you can listen to my episode of the cycle on substack with the cult expert guy and he was in a cold the moonies if you guys are old enough to remember that the moonies and he had to get himself out and now he helps people work with family because its not talking about strangers, theyre just talking about family on breaking the cult. So i would recommend book. Its the trump trump, and it is very practical advice for how to talk to your friends and neighbors. The one thing that will never work is facts and information. So you probably have that. And the reason is guys and what we figured out as human and keep in mind, even though were special liberal people, were still human beings. Okay . We still will respond to negative ads. We might not like them, but they still move our our voter behavior is know humans are wired in certain ways. And one of those ways is to discount information that conflict with your deeply held identity, identity based worldviews. So no matter how much data or facts you hit these folks with, its not going to be sufficient. You know, the ones that you think are on the precipice, though i think those people are winnable. But i think what you need to do is is invert the victimization and frame that the republicans are doing. Thats wh about grievance politd victimization is why its so dangerous. Its very similar to the nazis gained power and, built the third reich and in what have toh folks that is you have to you have to i think you have to persuade them that they are a target of something thats going to affect them personally. And thats what i would recommend that you somebody goil their Social Security and try to paint that picture for them because unfortunately were just not wired to accept informed nation. Thats not coming from a source we already are inclined to trust. And the Republican Party had moved from trust in all institutions, especially pretty severely before. Donald trump ever descended the golden escalator there. And then, of course, as you guys know, we ended up in an unprecedented situation where the person at the president ial podium with the White Air Force one and all the monikers of authority began to tell population that the press was the enemy of the people and that no, nothing is ever reported about him. Be true. And because of that the siloing effect with information has become ever more severe impenetrable. Just quickly on the point that you made about people wanting another piece of news from somewhere they dont trust it. Are you an advocate for running ads on fox news and newsmax and oann . Yeah, kind of. But you know, for me, i look at like, okay where can i hit these folks that isnt on fox news because, you know, the fox audience demographic is very predictable. Old white, old, white people. Were old people go they like sports guys. So find them on espn find them on the bachelorette the golden bachelor or think think its a performative act to throw an ad on fox. I mean certainly if you can throw one on fox usually the denial the good ones right and you have a lot of money and you can run and pound it over and over, then that would be different. Generally speaking, i think we to understand that like people the, people that were trying to get will watch fishing and hunting shows theyre going to watch nascar, theyre going watch espn, lots of sports and its just so much easier to to them when theyre not already in the in the crouch of that echo chamber. Well well, so many questions. How are you going to. So i know joe manchin today, if i read the headline correctly, he announced he wouldnt run. Oh, did your party. Oh, thats great news. 20 hours to you, joe. My question is more depressing with Kennedy Still being the race, how will a Third Party Candidate this election and kennedys interesting, because he has a weird leftism that also attracts trumpers. Yes. And his politics are super hard to define. And he has a famous last name. And if people know nothing but they know that kennedy name, they could be attracted to for sure. Third party voting makes me very nervous. Thats why when no label started all their stuff i you know was like third way was willing to take the the fight to them and i was all about helping okay its a huge issue. And the reason why guys is were sitting in this apocalyptic america where nine months from now we might be looking at trans people getting rounded up camps, latinos mean theyre not being shy. Theyre putting it out plans thousand deep plans called project 2025 of what they intend to to the American People should they be given the chance to control the executive of the federal part of the government. And, you know, we have to we have to we have to make sure that were meeting that, you know threat like with reality right. We cant pretend its not happening. Its not going to go away and. You know, prepare to prepare for the moment in but we would not be here if only there wouldnt have been Third Party Voting in 2016. We would be living. A where alle had to do was elect Hillary Clinton and the First Time Since the 1960s we would have had liberal Supreme Court majority. Okay. So not only would not be like on abyss, we would had Citizens United with redistricting and gerrymandering dealt with. We would certainly have our constitution or freedom. All right. Because im prop half property in the state now. Right. And i was a third party. Voting is nomething thats insignificant. That said what happened in eight in 2016. In my academic book, the unprecedented 2016 election, i lay this out pretty clearly was really, really historically high. And i think wont be as much of an this time. I call whats over the palestine stuff. A third of a bernie problem. Okay, because its a problem. Theres no denying it, but it is not a bernie sanders. Youre a protester or you can stand up now. All right. More questions so earlier, you were talking about how the messaging in the book is getting to the dnc, but obviously theyre not using the same in state by state. You know, the different swing races for the better part of the last 30 years, the democratic strategists have been abject. Like its just the fact. How confident are you, the states in the strategists running Senate Campaigns down ballot races in wisconsin and and arizona and georgia are going to revert to the same. You should vote us because we have this 18 page point plan right . Right. I im happy to jump in on that. Yeah, go ahead. I think. If you look at if you look at wisconsin, for instance, the the Democratic Party chair, theres the former of moveon and if you look at michigan, for instance, Michigan State dec last cycle for joe biden and his original campaign was eric, who was also the original Campaign Manager for andy beshear. And he was the main general consultant for andy reelection. And so they understand that not only is no, no state similar to another, but understand that, you know, in arkansas, different parts the state, you know, dont relate to other parts. So i feel pretty confidentt in terms of michigan and wisconsin, youve got some incredible who who kind of look at the obama approach to this, which is, you know, you just bring out two or three more people locally. Thats going to be a natural for the top of the ballot. But theyre coming folks in sof these other states. I think theyre still out. But theres theres there is some incredible talent that does things very than the National Party pool. And, you know, just so you guys can sleep better at night, i will tell you this, this book, im going to be training state Party Committees in a meeting in april in chicago. Go on this book, how to do this why we need to do it . Because the half of the book is about why what im proposing is a radical departure. Its not taking democratic strategy, which is suck for 30 years and returning the branches, which is what weve tended to do. Its saying, no, no, no, no, your tree is dead, dude. Okay . And and it was planted first off, in the wrong soil. Okay . Soil that does not appreciate low information voters. How low the illiterate, the voters are and how partizanship vote choice. So taking it by the the brunt that roots and pulling the whole tree out and recycling it and replanting it and im excited that the is buying into it. I think it is going to help a when. I am in april and talking to these party chairs i mean thats all the Party Committees across the country swing blue states, red states and im hopeful that we are going to run a campaign in the fall that will marry the strategy across the swing races in house and the senate, especially in the senate, where there is no room for error and are not going to win florida by marketing. Debbie marcel powell, where you have do it by attacking. I mean really eviscerating rick scott, especially in places like the villages where hes talking of stealing peoples security. Right. We should probably go and tell them that they dont they do not know. So lets at least go and try and tell them and tell these people down in florida. Right. So i get this a lot, matt, and maybe do too. Well, we cant go and spend money on latino in florida. We got to do that. We have to make sure we have puerto rican eyes and theres cubans and theres all these different imi do the gop is t doing that okay, were going down and theyre hitting latino file and theyre telling them democrats are socialists that want to turn your male children into girls or something to effect. Okay. And the ones that theyre keeping on the rolls and what if we werit would be one thing if e also contact doing already 80 of the latinos in florida. But heres the thing were not even talking the strategy or the tactics deployed to get even one message in one version of spanish. Theyre so like, lets do that first. And then we can we can we can make it more fancy later. But i think we we really have to stop at this cemetery and make sure that voters at least one message from us, especially in these poor constituencies, black people. Right. The black voter electorate is going suffer so much under this dictatorship, i mean, may well get ridfolks. Okay. Like the civil rights act. Okay. So we need to be telling all of these communities, Republican Party is coming for your freedom. Theyre going to deport latinos. You know, shes from arizona in 2010, arizonas political evolution to where it is today, triggered by a law called show me your papers that terrified the latino community. What republicans are proposing from latinos now is thousand percent more draconian than that. Show you your papers law and theyre thinking theyre talking about openly about putting people into loyalty test if theyre nationalized citizens, naturalized citizenship, revoking the 14th amendment, people like nikki haley, who were born here to immigrant. Shes a citizen because she was born. They want to end that stuff. And so to us, to me, its about get at least one thing to the electorate. Make sure that thing is theres a real problem here. Folks, we need you to up vote d up and down ballot. And this time that d stands democracy. And i know sometimes people get confused. The dnc has 57 parties. So its states dc, the territory is in democrats abroad. At least part of me will end up uerto rico. Yeah, yeah yeah. And the vice chairs will be. So its 114. I know its time to wrap up. So we can all go by four copies of your book. Any any last words . No. Heres the thing, is that, if you re t youre going to find yourself yelling, oh, i didnt seen that for years. Right. So, like, read the book and then me a favor. Find someone else needs to read the book and then tell them im giving you this book are buying. I know you. Have to sell it. Whatever. Buy the book. Buy the book. Buy it from here, from politics, prose. But that book, move in through your circles, make sure people read it so that they understand how important it is for us to make this strategic pivot all the time for dawdling has passed. We should have done this a decade ago, but now were up against the wall. If we dont fix strategy, were going to be in serious hurt. So ill close by when republicans low, we got to hit them where it hurts. To. Thank you all so much. Another really interesting person here who always pretends he edwards. Black hoodie, white pants row was the only democrat at start of Lincoln Project and has worked for o campaigns. But keith, thanks for being here. And i. Can go over there and find some oh, good evening, everybody. My name is roger zakheim. As you just heard, im the director of the reagan institute, the dc office of the Ronald Reagan president ial institute, and hope you all been enjoying this reception. Christine carlucci reids