Various scenarios that could take place after the election involving delayed counting of ballots. This runs whenever. Im aaron david miller, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment and welcome to carnegie connects, series of virtual conversations on issues of critical importance to americans and to the world. Our last session which took place on the afternoon of the first president ial as diverse of the question, what Foreign Policy figure in the election and our three panelists, charlie cook, jen saki and Amanda Carpenter i think myself included knew the answer to the question before we began. Not so today. The question we pose come will american democracy survive november 3 and beyond, is unanswerable. It may be overly dramatically rendered, but there are simply too many unknowns and too many uncertainties and fears about the consequences of this election. However, there are also hopes. Rachel kleinfeld has written and i would put myself in agreement with this, reflecting the factef that for many its hard to imagine that the u. S. Wont find a way to muddle through. It was argued in an jerk at times on sunday that we will definitely muddle through and then some. Let me quote what was said. D. Meanwhile, the scenarios that event spun out in reputable publications where trump induces republican state legislators to overrule the clear outcome in their states or militia violence intimidates the Supreme Court into vacating a Biden Victory bear no relationship to the Trump Presidency we have experienced. E are we granting infected by covid chief executive is not plotting a coup because a term like plotting in place capabilities that he conspicuously lacks. Maybe, but our conviction, i would argue, in faith of the american story and the american democracy which somehow magically and inextricably triumph and everything is going to turn out to be okay, you know, cannot and should not and never should be taken for granted. The founders didnt do, take it for granted and you did some of our greatest president s in leaders. Rarely has this republic been more at sea and few elections have taken place on a sense of greater crisis and uncertainty. Not to mention the problem of mail in ballots which will constitute huge percentage of the votes counted. I would count atug least five crises interlocked. The pandemic, the worst threat to Global Health since a great influence of 1918. An economic recession which has many economists scratching their heads with respect to structural problems and challenges in the economy. Polarization and civil unrest driven by racial class, political divisions. A loss of confidence in our institutions from the post office to the senses. And the president the first in American History who has already said repeatedly and publicly that he will not abide bysic the results of the election. As bart gellman has noted, trump may win or lose but he will never concede. And concession is more than just a ritualistic formulaic speech. Its a symbol that legitimizes peaceful transfereg of power in our electoral system. So, how bad could it get . Are any of the nightmare scenarios associated with conversation very likely . What other Court Challenges to the election . And do we have institutional guardrails, congress, the courts come the constitution to keep us on track . And is rachel has pointed out, how do we even begin to repair our broken political culture and social and political contract . Threats most important i think as Michael Steele has noted, quoting Martin Luther king, quote, our lives begin to in the day we become silent about the things that matter. So what can we do about all this . This challenge, this threat before it materializes, and if and when it does . Fortunately all is not lost. We are three extraordinary presentersdo to lead us out of e wilderness, or at least to guide us and ask the kinds of questions that we need to ask and create some realitybased answers. They are known to all of you. I will skip the resumes. I will only say Michael Steele is a former Lieutenant Governor state of maryland and Senior Advisor to the lincolnln projec. Bart gellman is a staff writer for the atlantic. Youve all seen his recent article and the author most recently of dark mirror. And, of course, our own Rachel Kleinfeld come senior fellow where she focuses, and i might add, excels in extraordinary fashion in writingti and speakig on issues from the rule of law to security to governance postconflict countries, fragile states and those in transition period. Round of q a from the audience. As far as the q a, ill read the instruction, well have a live q a section, use the live chat feature in youtube. Email Us Press Office at ceip. Org or tweet at us at carnegie and dow, using the use the carnegie connects. I droned on. Its particularly fun to be on a panel with rachel whom ive gotten to know in the past year or so and i agree with everything youve said, an incredible insightful talent and appreciate the work youre doing over at the atlantic. So lets get right into the question because i think its an important one, will democracy survive november 3rd and the short answer is, yeah, yeah. It will. It may look a little different, but it will. Its ironic that ive got some of my republican friends like senator mike lee saying were not a democracy and thats not the most important thing now. [laughter] lets set that crazy aside. But the fact of the matter the fact of the matter is, it really goes to the heart of the answer to the point, it survives if you want it to. It survives if we, the people want it to. And that quote from dr. King which for me is so salient and important right now, that you know, we really become our own end when we sort of turned our blind eye to things that matter. We, in this democracy, we end this grand american experiment when we decide no longer to care about the things that matter. So, folks, what matters to you . This election matters to a lot of americans. The outcome of this election matters to a lot of americans. But even more important than that is the various institutions that have safeguarded our rights and our liberties from our courts to our legislative branches, to ur executive leaders from president to county executives. They all have played a role in securing the promise thats laid out in our founding documents. You know, while the execution of those ideas and ideals have been flawed and problematic over the years, the underlying words still matter. We, the people, in order to form a more Perfect Union. It didnt say to form a Perfect Union or to say that we were. Were constantly striving in a republic to create a democracy. To create a voice and to give power to people. So when i look at this election, that is that is paramount for me. It is why i stand in opposition to my own party because i feel that theyve walked away from those ideas and those values for the musings and the rantings of one man. George washington proved that this country was not just about one person. It was not about one individual. Donald trump, unfortunately, is trying to prove him wrong. And i have faith in reliance, in the American People when they look at this and they see where we are and what this means to them and their families. More importantly, to the future of this country, that they will step into the power that is granted the granted to them in those founding words, we the people. The Court Challenges that we face right now, into having a legitimate election is how we shore up those institutions. So the writings of individuals like bart and the work of individuals like rachel and a lot of smart people across this country matters now more than ever before. Their ability to coalesce and condense ideas and facts and information, to inform the citizenry, not just about whats at stake, but the underlying truths that support whats at stake, that supports an open, free, fair election, where we see litigation now in places like texas where the governor said, well, we only want one dropoff box in a county of five Million People. Okay. Let that sink in. Now, they will say, oh, no, thats not Voter Suppression at all. Five Million People going to one location to drop off their ballot, yeah, those Voter Suppression. So being informed and engaged and understanding what the thing is youre seeing and hearing matters at these times and why a conversation like this with people way smarter than me, im just a political guy. Im just a guy, you know, happened to get elected. I know a little bit about that and politics, but i rely on my secretaries of state and you know, people who have studied this. The political scientists, the lawyers and, you know, the folks who deal with the machinations of these things in a legal and societal statement so we all know whats at stake. The prospect of what happens the next few weeks in the number between the election and the inauguration itself does matt matter. As ive said get a tall glass of your favorite adult beverage, sit back and watch the process unfold. Stay calm, and the reason i can be calm is because of the hard work and information thats being put out front to sort of help me understand exactly what to expect on that, on the back end. Yes, we have a president who is saying he wants his supporters to go be poll watchers. Lets be clear about that. They cant just show up and be poll watchers. Being a poll watcher is a specific regulated position in every county in this country. You have to the county parties and state parties have to identify ahead of time who the poll watchers are. I cant just show up at my neighborhood poll and start, you know, injecting myself into that process. So understanding what can be done, what cant be done, the consequences of violations that may occur does matter. And thats why conversations like this are so important and im so glad to be a part of them. So ill turn it over now so smarter people can lay down some smarter tracks. Michael, i must say your reputation has preceded, but and youve given us all, me for sure, a burst of enthusiasm and i wouldnt rule out problem and politicians, and its necessary, bart and rachel, and people like you in the political process, thats also going to be extremely important, but thanks again. Bart gellman, over to you. Well, i find michael reassuring and because its sort of voice of experience plus someone paying very, very close attention to whats happening now and can look at things with a bit of perspective. I am, nonetheless, somewhat more concerned, i think, about the prospect for a normal election or for getting through it intact at the far end. This is not going to be a normal election. Were already past that. Theres no chance of it. We have a president who has worked hard to delegitimize, that they cannot trust that the vote count will be accurate. Theres almost nothing that could under mine the electoral process more than that than to have an Authority Figure telling you that the one mechanism we have for deciding who rules us, who we, the people are delegating our political power to is broken. Its filled with fraud. Its rigged. Now, trump has said explicitly, not off the cuff, but in his prepared remarks as he accepted the republican nomination for president on august 24th, he said, the only way that we can lose this election is if the vote is rigged. So he has already ruled out the possibility that we, the people, democratically, by our own accurate volition, are going to remove him from power. I mean, in any other country, if the ruler said that, we would be very concerned. He also has given several versions, which weve all heard, of a refusal to guarantee that he would honor the results of the election and enable a peaceful transfer of power. The one most alarming to me is the one and you always have to be careful about proposing too much could he could herence one word salad that comes out of his mouth in reference to peaceful transfer of power. As you know, we have a very big problem with the ballots, and ballot fraud. I think he meant the mailin ballots. And then we would have a peaceful he said in the mid sentence, there wont be a transfer, frankly, there will be a continuation. Hes saying if the counting goes, the only way he thinks is acceptable, then hes reelected. So, i think we can safely say, based on his record and based on his actual words, that under no circumstances, literally, will trump concede defeat in this election. And that turns out to be a very big deal because concession is the way we have ended elections in this country for well over 100 years. Its the moment of concession that tells you the fight is over and that as a political scientist would say, its authority of the incoming president. Its that, more than any other single fact about the election, because we have no umpire. This is a game in which we dont have someone who keeps track of the score, keeps track of the time, blows the whistle and say and says, okay, well, you won and you lost. And it doesnt matter how much the players or the coaches belly ache about it, thats the result. Its over. And everyone understands that a decisive result has been achieved. People sometimes talk about the risk with trump or the concern even though it sounds fantastical he might lose the election and refuse to leave. In fact our system does know how to respond to that, he would be escorted out. He would have some help with his luggage and the oval office would have the next occupant. Thats not the concern. The concern is that trump could use the power of his office and the power of his control over his followers to prevent decisive result to be obtained, a decisive result against him. We have never had a president who has said amid the count that there is fraud happening. The vote is being rigged before our eyes and it is unclear how well respond to that. Especially if he uses his the power of his office to give an alternative official point of view. Not just his twitter account, not just the words that come out when he faces a microphone, but actions of the government itself. Suppose that the Justice Department announces a fraud in progress and an immediate investigation as the vote is being counted. Suppose votes are impounded as evidence. Suppose the postal inspectors find irregularity with the mail vote and suspend delivery of mail ballots or decides to reprocess everything to make sure that a valid postmark has been applied, its actually not the case that the Postal Service requires by regulation that a postmark be stamped on every letter. Sometimes theyre not. But election laws in some states require a postmark for mailin ballots. Suppose the postal inspectors say, well, lets make sure we reprocess these and theres a valid and ledgeable postmark and takes things past the deadline. Trump has power of law that might be abused and might be found to be unlawful eventually after the fact, but we dont get doovers in the election and after the fact is not good enough. Theres also what happens on election day itself. This is the first election in 40 years thats taking place without the oversight of a federal court over republican quote, unquote, ballot security measures, which is another word for Voter Suppression. There is a pretext of guarding against voter fraud. Voter fraud is almost entirely a fekz fictional concept. Its vanishingly rare. There was a good study done of one billion votes cast, between 2000 and 2014. Of which 31 were identified as fraudulent. The 31 out of 1 one billion. This is the scale of the problem, if you can call it a problem. It has no affecting an election. On the ground of voter fraud, pretext, republicans used to have off duty police and sheriffs, and former military folks and large people wearing guns, confronting voters, reviewing their credentials, its a felony to vote if youre not eligible or in the wrong precinct. Putting up big signs generally intimidating people of color in minority neighborhoods and trump has, for example, called out philadelphia which happens to be a large democratic strong hold and an essential swing state that he must win to be president , and he may be behind in the polls in pennsylvania, but if he can shave a couple points off by intimidating voters on the day of, and by causing mailin votes not to be counted, then who knows where that goes . And then theres what michael mentioned the whole election day and the swearing in of the new president. There are milestones in that process who decides who the president is going to be. Normally theyre mere for malties, even the voter would be for given, in december, and january 6th is a big day when Congress Formally counts the votes that have been cast by the Electoral College and there are many opportunities, as i described in my piece for the atlantic, for a candidate who has insolence over fellow members of the party to interfere with the normal functioning of the Electoral College and the count. If you take trump seriously as a man who will not concede and who is prepared to breach all norms and boundaries, as long as he can get away with it, then the question is going to be how far the American Public will allow him to go. How far fellow members of his party will allow him to go. If you asked the average republican senator or member of the house or governor or state legislator whether they would allow the president to steal the election, whether they would allow the president to use his power to keep control of his office and notwithstanding the votes of the people, they would all say no. And they would probably mean it. But if they are committed already, as they are, to a narrative of voter fraud, and if trump says, its not that ive been outvoted, its that the count has been poisoned, im not as confident that i know how they will respond and thats the concern that we have to guard against and thats why every citizen needs to think about what his or her relationship is to this election, whether its as a voter. As a poll watcher, whether their job has anything to do with security in the election. Everyone needs to be thinking about what they will do if extra constitutional means are used to try to interfere with the actual results of the election. Well, i got up to press this morning. Michael lightened the load a tad. Bart, youve thats as grim a presentation, im glad you made it, reflected in your piece. So that leaves Rachel Kleinfeld the task of navigating and shes superbly equipped and able to do. So, rachel, let me turn it over to you. Thank you, this is quite a group to follow ap and im going to play goldilocks, in between the optimism and pessimism. Corruption and violence and so on, usually im in barts shoes so this is good for me. First, lets just say the election is happening, its happening right now, already six million votes cast and probably more at this point. Its been open here in new mexico for voting for over a week. There are long lines in georgia. There have been opening day challenges in manile, many many, many places and so far were muddling through. However, it doesnt mean well continue to muddle through and the numbers are not looking great in terms of what americans are worried about. So more in common, which is a group that works against polarization around the world they found that 71 of americans are worried about Political Violence in this election. Thats an enormous number. A group of our best political scientists, larry diamond, lee, the people doing polling who have been doing polling on american attitude for years, were so concerned about the findings on violence that they actually pulled their numbers together, all polls together and came out with a piece about two weeks ago, that i think for various reasons their numbers may be on the high side. But the numbers high and discounted are pretty alarming. About one in three democrats and republicans, the numbers are quite similar on both sides, feel that violence is at least somewhat justified to advance their Political Goals and about one in five say that violence is a lot or a great deal justified. If their side loses. How did we get to this . Were extremely were all on a tightrope right now. Were all worried because of the pandemic. People are highly stressed. People are at home. You see this reflected in violence figures. In the places that have local lockdowns in april. March and april. You saw searches for white premises content rise by 21 . People dont do well when theyre isolated from their normal life when theyre seeking normal life online and thats part of whats going on. The other part is our immense political polarization, our polarization across every area of our identity. The last part is what bart has been talking about. We have an extraordinary president and i dont mean that in a great way. We have a president , such as weve never had before, who is priming people for fraud. So close to three in four americans feel that the longer we have to wait for results the more likely it is that this is a fraudulent election and only four in 10 feel that the government is committed to keeping the election secure, the federal government. Thats an important point because there are things to build on and im going to get to the happy part of this at the end. Things to build on our local and state governments where theres much more trust and where people believe that they can do much more to affect the process, to affect their democracy. So aaron wanted us to answer how bad this can get. Im not going to share with you how bad this can get. A lot of my time is living in the nightmare scenario, america had civil war and severe violence in the late 60s, president ial assassinationinass i would rather not spend my time walking people through the nightmares. My greatest concern as was barts is this period during the process of counting, just after the elections are closed. Thats because theres some intense evidence that people are not going to accept that. Both what ive cited already, but also just looking at the swing states. So, pennsylvania and wisconsin, two major swing states, they cant even start counting their absentee ballots until after polls close. Were expecting unprecedented numbers of absentee ballots, more than the majority of ballots im sorry, more than half the ballots might be absentee ballots. You cant start counting. Its a slow process to count. The people counting often, depending on state law, have to sit on those folding metal chair, theyre older, often 60 and 70yearold ladies working the polls the way that they have been for many years, working 18 hour days starting to count the evening after the polls. And in michigan theyre not allowed to work in shifts, they have to be the same people. Ins this is a setup for people getting tired and no political fault. Theyre human beings. Michigan gave them one extra day. The big change, one extra day to start counting absentee votes so we can expect theres going to be problems. One of the problems with those problems is absentee voting is going to be extremely lopsided. No it shouldnt have been. I wrote articles early in the summer with republican, who happens to be my brother, about the importance of recognizing that republicans can win in absentee voting and they have in florida and so on, theres no reason to think about this as a partisan issue. Nevertheless, the president s proclamations around the summer is that republicans are voting at much higher rates, especially in swing states. So what youre likely to see is whats called a blue shift or a red mirage, where numbers that look very red on Election Night slowly turn blue over time. A lot of people are going to see that and theyre going to be primed for fraud. Theyre going to say that this is evidence things are going wrong. Theres over 200 lawsuits, do you count the votes if theyre not postmarked. Usps doesnt always postmark election mail. And all of minutia in key democrat states and the democrats are going to see the lawsuits and say this election is being stolen. And people turn to violence when they dont feel they have legitimate political voice and normal politics is closed to them and the u. S. Has muddled through for a long time. We have a very old democracy mostly built on norms of forebe forebearrance, and you dont steal elections. And we have stolen elections, going back to and the violence, we fall into that category. Our creaky rules right after the civil war and theyre compromises and written as great compromises and everyone who tries to read the laws can find a loophole. If it comes reading the law when it comes to this election, theres a lot of room for different interpretations and theres room for those things. Ive been saying were an old democracy, but also a young democracy. America only really started to integrate the africanamerican vote in the mid 1960s, and it was a hell of a fight. That was our last big moment of major Political Violence and then we turned to all sorts of techniques to try to keep that vote down again and now that as bart was saying, various laws have been released and that vote can be suppressed more openly. It might be. So we have to recognize though weve muddled through, weve muddled through in a way thats not the best in a democracy that should be representing all of its people and were at a point right now where the stakes are quite high for many people who feel theyre losing their legacy of privilege. So ill just end with the upbeat part of this, which is that if you have a vote that is very, very decisive, we should not get to some of these nightmare scenarios and the best way to make the vote very decisive to vote early where you can, by absentee or in person if you can do that, most of the problems with the vote are when the vote gets down to the line. When youre voting near the end. When youre going late. That kind of thing. We should also keep some perspective. Violence is incredibly low right now. At early 1960s levels of violence, and Political Violence tracks criminal violence. Theyre tightly related, to trust in government and our fellow people. So were at very low levels of violence and even with all of the protests this summer and the mayhem in many, many cities. The National Guard and dhs troops and so on, we had very little violence this summer and its worth keeping in mind. Nothing like when i growing up in the 80s and early 90s. We can speak to our own sides. The violence is a problem with both sides, and both are much more credible in speaking to their own sides about the gigantic body of research except it doesnt work. It might make you feel good and it doesnt work for anything anyone is trying to achieve. While both sides are justifying it, its extremely lopsided in which leaders are justifying it. And here republicans need to speak to their own side. Theres no way around it. Republican leaders need to say that violence is not an acceptable way to win elections. If they dont, theyre going to be a nondemocratic party and weve seen what happens in other parties when it exists. Its not good. The last thing swe all just have to take a deep breath. I like michaels favorite adult beverage, ill be drinking straight whiskey, my favorite adult beverage and probably Strong Enough for that night, but we need to wait. This is not going to be an Election Night. Its going to be an election week, maybe two weeks, a long time to count. Dont forget al franken took months before he was seated in his senate race. This is not incredible unusual. Taking a breath at that point and understanding that the count is just going to take time and it doesnt mean that anyone is stealing anything. Its actually how our process is supposed to, would. Well go quite a long way to forestalling violence afterward. Succeeded in navigating between michael on one hand and on the other. And gore versus bush two days before the Electoral College convened to vote september 12th. The Supreme Court ruled, but i want to get institutional guidelines. Looking back over the last several years quickly, how well do you think the executive branch under this president has been constrained . How well has the media, congress, the courts, Public Opinion done in constraining and how bart argues there are no adjudicators, theres really no one or no thing that we can rely on in this period thats going to help save us. Are there institutional guidelines that could function during this period. Congress, the courts, guidance from the constitution, the media, Public Opinion. Have we nothing to fall back on in barts all too real and very grim scenarios play out . Well go to you as youve looked at guardrails. This is a glass half full, glass half empty, and depends how i wake up in the morning which on any given day. America has done a remarkable job so far constraining a leader with a fairly imperial presidency. Our presidency has grown in power over the years and our congress has been giving up its power for 25 years. Its really been on the back foot. Our Political Parties have been weakening over the years, particularly the Republican Party, i would say, has outsourced its get out the vote operations to churches. Outsourced to talk radio and fox and outsourced funding mechanisms to donor groups. Its a weak party and its not surprising that a has taken over. Weve con a good job constraining some of the worst that we have done. And were doing things, were interred people in our country and we havent done those things under this president and thats good. And we have some institutions that are quite strong. I do a lot of work with the military or our military is a baggion of apolitical nonpartisan action. They do not want to be political. They do not want to be politicized. Theyre concerned about how this president might use them especially considering what happened in lafayette square, quite concerned and i think theyll do everything they can to make sure theyre not politicized. I think theres a lot that we can be proud of and glad of thats happened so far. On the other hand, our institutions are weaker than they used to be and i think the weakest and the one im most concerned about is the courts. Whenever you have them, you see them go after first, doj or equivalent prosecutory agencies and the courts. When its strong, its constraining on what they can do. And what weve seen is a Republican Party thats been so desirous of power through the courts, that theyve been okay with going along with that weakening and thats really concerning because we need both parties to uphold the nature of apolitical court. Thats hard in america. Our carts are particularly political. Particularly honored and particularly political. Very unusual for other countries to have that and right now, the level of politicalization literally could destroy our courts and our ability to trust them and then were up a creek, so thanks, im watching my phone here, it says New York Times says that virginias portal went down today. And after a fiber cable was severed. Michael, pick up on rachels point. Were watching confirmation of a Supreme Court justice. There is precedent for adjudication, to use barts term, through the courts in an american election. How do you want to share with us any views you have on the Supreme Courts role in this . Or potential role . Yeah, the Supreme Court courts role is and i think the justices would tell you this, is a limited role. I mean, they are the last, the last stop that you get to. Not just because its the Supreme Court, but because the way the electoral process is set up, it is designed actually to try to avoid adjudication to the Supreme Court and folks look back at the 2000 bush v gore election and what they miss in that process was the miscalculation of the democrats, which triggered the Supreme Court action. So the thing that keeps in mind, that a lot of people dont know how we elect the president , is in that interregnum theres a clock that automatically kicks on and the president , the challenger to the president , the congress, they cant stop that clock unless there is affirmative congressional action to do so. And thats just not likely to happen, whereby at a certain date, electors have to meet, at a certain date the congress has to confirm the decision of the elekkers, so electors. Theres a process. What you realize the fundamental question the gore team had before them they took door number two instead of door number one. The question, door number one, a statewide recount or door number two, do we do a local, you know, recount of those counties we have in question . And the choice they made was such that, it automatically triggered the clock. And so, understanding how the process works and the Supreme Court had to step in at that point. They had to make a decision. And oh, the Supreme Court weighed in favor of bush. No, they weighed in favor of the votes counted based on the process chosen by the democrats at that time. And so, i can so the court could only go by the votes that were counted up to that point. Now, a statewide recount would have started a different had probably a different outcome and the courts decision probably would have been a different one, but because of the choices that the political establishment made in a legal context, the court cant be concerned about that. The court can only go by what the constitution requires it does in this particular moment and i think that will be the case here, as well. So if youre looking at this nomination process, the political argument that somehow Coney Barrett is going to be there to be a hammer to put trump over the finish line, thats actually a rather bogus argument when you consider the way this process is constitutionally mandated to unfold and so that i have less concerns about that and more faith in to the point that rachel made about the process doing what its supposed to do the way its supposed to do it. Right. Let me with the interregnum, its one thing with the media, and its other thing to have a strategy to undermine Election Results through a series of actions, direct actions, including summoning your followers into the streets. Bart, you interviewed, in your article, a number of republican officials and michael, you are a republican, albeit youve obviously created a certain measure of distance from those who are republicans today. Slightly different brand. Right, exactly. Well get to that in a minute. First to you, bart. Is there a strategy in your view, based on your interviews, is there an actual strategy in pla pla place . I think theres a point that russ i googled it, its dothet. He has a point thats hard to impute plots and strategies of this president , he is a fixed in the moment. He has people for that and there are, what i know from our reporting. There are discussions of contingency plans in which the Trump Campaign would seek to bypass the results of popular elections state by state, in key swing states. They could call upon republican legislators to take back their power under article two of the constitution to decide how electors are assigned in their states. That is to say were accustomed to electors corresponding to the vote. But in fact, the constitution says state legislatures can assign electors anyway they like. If he convinces his political allies that the vote has been hopelessly compromised, that no one even knows what the result is because theres been so much fraud and so much chaos that he himself has helped create, th that and if the delays in the count are significant enough based on litigation and these ongoing battles, then there comes a time, and the time is december 8th, when the deadline is approaching for the Electoral College and he asks the legislators to appoint electors committed to trump. Were overriding the popular vote and we have to give our best understanding who won in our state. Now, michael mentioned the bush v gore in 2000. One of the things that hardly anyone remembers about that is that on the same day that the Supreme Court handed down its decision which was december 12th, the florida legislature, the Florida House had already voted and the senate was about to vote to appoint republican electors, even though the litigation was underway. They were going to send to the Electoral College a slate of electors committed to bush, using their legislative power under the constitution to make sure that bush got those votes. And its not the Supreme Courts decision that ended that election. It is what happened the day after, which is on december 13th, when gore came out and conceded because gore could have continued to fight in the Electoral College and if he had done so, the forum of decision would have been a joint session of congress overseen by the president of the senate, who was al gore. And if that happened this year, the president of the senate will be mike pence. And thats one of the reasons for concern. Right. I understand and i agree, but michael, is it too untethered a thought from reality to believe that republicans, as they currently exist now, the republican elite, its a fantasy i have, forgive me, that a delegation of republicans would go to the white house at some point during this period of contesttation, if it was clear that the president was had a determined willfully steal an election, to say, thats it, we no longer support you. Its not your party for reasons, and is that thought based on the republicans for the last four years . Is there no guardrail that exists among the republican elite . Bob woodward said the last week that there are only two constraints. Now he on trump, he cited the white house staff which was an intriguing comment and the second was republicans. Yeah, i think theres still some validity to that despite what weve seen in behavior from the Republican Leaders over the last three years. Certainly, there are some members in the senate, for example, who are hypocritically siycophan sycophantic, and cant be helped and nor should we try to cure them because thats who they are. I think by and large what youre looking at, particularly given the impact that the president is having on valid elections, and in january this have year, the senate was not in play for the democrats. Three weeks out from the election, there are at least four seats and possibly six seats that are not just on the bubble, but are problematic for republica republicans. If you want an indication of how bad it is, Lindsey Graham is tied for his reelection seat in South Carolina. Let me repeat, South Carolina, no bagsion of blue statism, South Carolina is. If you dont believe me about South Carolina then look at what senator cornyn is going through in the state of texas. Yes, i said texas where the president himself is barely one to three points ahead depending on the polls in texas. So, what you have seen over the last few weeks and certainly in the last three or four days is Mitch Mcconnell taking a much more handsoff approach to the president ial outcome of this election. And is more than aware of the senatorial impact the election could have on his leadership of the senate and what it may mean for republicans who want to be competitive in a biden administration. And so, i think that, yeah, there would be some degree of a voice inside the ear of the president from Republican Leaders who would be saying, let it go. This is disruptive to the country. We cant afford this kind because there is no political upside at that point. So, going back to barts point about, you know, the violence, that if that occurs, the Largest Group blamed for that will not be democrats, but republicans. You can talk about antifa all day long. All you have to do is put up the president s own words, i want my voters to go to the polls. I want them to be disruptive. The president giving his blessing to qnon and to white nationalism. Thats a narrative that the people themselves have seen and heard from the president s own lips and republicans would be loathe to sort of embrace that narrative on the other side of this election for fear that, you know, those seats that they can try to hold onto, they wont be able to so thats where you see this distancing now and the president will largely, i think, to some agree be on his own if he tries to stoke that kind of, you know, militant response to the election on Election Night. Ill tell you one thing, if i could add to that, theres an important guardrail, believe it or not, in fox news and its going to be a big question on Election Night and afterwards. Fox news has a very professional decision desk of pollsters, political scientists, and they will know the real truth. The scenario that is most concerning, as rachel said, is a red mirage in which because trumps vote is concentrated in the inperson votes, people who say they plan to vote in person by one poll breaks almost 21 to trump nationally. Yes, its a point so if we have what appears to be a trump strik tri on Election Night and we might not, i mean, if biden wins florida, florida counts early, theres not going to be any blue shift in florida, we will know by late Election Night who is very likely to win florida. If biden wins florida and most paths for trump are closed at that point to victory, then youre going to see the decision desks at nbc and abc and cbs and Associated Press are going to be saying this election is looking very strong to biden, appears hes on the verge of victory. Will fox go along with trumps claims of victory nonetheless . Or will it listen to its decision desk . Thats a critical question. Okay, the future, its funny how many of our questions not funny, but instructive back to michaels point of aspirations and hope. Rachel, you are the prognosticator and id like to turn this question to you. We have two questions to do with the future. One from Laura Dinsdale that asks, big picture, what are the three key reforms needed to improve american democracy Going Forward . Gary asks a similar question on youtube. What gives you hope with respect to the american democracy. Its a big question and weve got six minutes left. Take a minute or two if you might. Its a critically important one. A lot gives me hope, actually. First of all, people are engaged. A lot of people took democracy for granted for many, many years, we have about 40 of our public who doesnt vote at all. The amount of political engagement, the number of people who no longer take democracy for granted who care about these abstract parts of election law, thats good. Thats really good and that means that we can build on that. I think there are changes that can be made that are starting to be made that would really be hopeful. And rank voting, it sounds wonky, but it means you rank your favorite people to elect as if you rank your flavors, and maine has voted for it, new york city voted for it and here in santa fe. What it means is different flavors of Political Party can exist. As michael is saying, hes a different flavor of republican from the man in our white house, thats good we need different flavors, a Progressive Left and a working class left. We need a conservative business right and a socially conservative right. These people exist in america and they deserve representation. And rank Choice Voting allows them to have that representation and its a reform that would enabling representing better and keeping some of the worst of the worst that were seeing from rising to the top of the party so that everyone can pull together and win. I also see real hope in the number of good people running. Particularly in the last election cycle, but also in this election cycle. You had unprecedented numbers of win coming out to run. Really good candidates. We denigrate politicians in our democracy. You know, we like to say that theyre all krument, theyre all bad. Theyre all in it for themselves . Who else is going to run your democracy . Were actually a republic. Were not a direct democracy. And its a rotten job. My father used to say if anyone tells you you should be a senator, theyre not your friend. You have to raise money and huge amount of time in a telephone booth shaped thing calling people and asking for dollars. Fly back and forth constantly across the country and back to your home state. Its a tough job and on top of it people say youre corrupt and rotten, maybe some people are, but the number of people running, starting to respect them more and recognize them for the patriots they can often be and are. A lot gives me hope a lot of things that we can start doing now that we care also gives me hope. And the Electoral College two or three sessions, and i think its critical reform. Weve reached the end of our session, and call it a Public Service announcement describe is the way you want. For most of my career i focused on Foreign Policy ignoring the domestic realities am the political culture at home. I think leaving government in 03, 17 years now. Ive come more to focus on the importance of the republic and what goes on here and i just want to close with a quote from lincoln who was 28 at the time. He addressed the young men in 1838, and here is what he had to say and the Foreign Policy reference is important. What lincoln says at age 28. At what point, lincoln says, shall we expect the an n i approach of danger, by what means should we fortify against it. Should we expect a transatlantic military giant to cross the ocean and strike a blow . Never. All the armies of europe, asia, africa combined all in their military chest with a bone apart by commander could not by force take a drink from the ohio or make a track on the blue ridge, in a trial of a thousand years. At what point then is the approach of danger to be expected . I answer, if it ever reach us, it must spring up amongst us. It cannot come from abroad. If destruction be our lot, lincoln argued at the age of 28, we must ourselves be its author and its finisher. As a nation of free men writing in the 19th century of course, we must live through all time or die by suicide. I want to thank bart, michael, and rachel. Its a complicated subject youve unpacked it, youve unwinded it, and youve done so with real care, real diligence and the future of our republic depends on people like you. A vote, two things, vote and please turn into tune into the next session of carnegie connects. Thank you so much, michael, rachel and bart. Thank you. The confirmation hearing for Supreme Court nominee amy Coney Barrett concludes thursday with the Senate Judiciary committee listening to outside witnesses who support and oppose judge barretts nomination. Thats live on cspan at 9 a. M. Eastern. On cspan2 at 10 00 a. M. Eastern Heritage Foundation holds a discussion on Election Security ahead of the 2020 election. Later in the day, were live from the campaign trail in North Carolina with President Trump holding a rally in greenville and senator Kamala Harris speaking to voters in charlotte. Wednesday, joe biden spoke to a Virtual Event addressed to Muslim Advocates. Mr. Biden vowed to combat antimuslim rhetoric and to include Muslim Americans in his administration if elected president. Hi, its joe biden. Its an honor to congratulate Muslim Advocates on 15 years of hard work for justice. Youre proof just how much Muslim American community does and can do and make sure nation so strong, the health care workers, educators, artists, organizers, Small Business owners essential workers. Advocates like you bring us closer to our founding ideals, Muslim American voices matter to our community and to our country. I know you havent always go t