Today november 4, 1913. The United States was preparing to muster 500,000 troops in europe against a major power. President wilson had given an ultimatum to the nations head of state, but we didnt go to war, at least not now. And that power was on this side of the atlantic. It was mexico. The menace posed was the great menace of the moment. I found this on the front page of where else but the new york times. The next 17 pages there wasnt a single mention of europe where s the two featured authors today chronicle the entries abroad. The second balkan war had just concluded and now europe had a broader concentration so it is my pleasure to welcome margaret into the lead up to the conflict in her new billboard that ended the peace. Robert i wont actually lift it, but thats the buck. If of course showed how it paved the way to understanding what we are already building in europe and of course a passion of mine especially much of my life in Texas College and in my last book was coming out in the new edition just in time for the hundredth anniversary. Speaking of which there are many ways of approaching these points. Fundamentally they come down to personalities and historical imperative. In your book i want to quote something a few generals had the power and authority to say either yes or no to mobilizing the armies to compromise and carry out the plans already drawn up by paramilitaries. So the big question was was it Uncontrollable Forces that were inevitably moving towards the more oil as it did individuals . Guest i dont think that they were moving inevitably towards the war. Im reluctant in history to talk about the inevitability of them. I think what you had before was certainly forces pushing towards the war with imperial rivalries at arms race in the salon but at the same time they were strong forces for peace. A lot of people for they are aro progressive that we wont ever have a war again. A big middleclass Peace Movement that said repeatedly they would take place so it seems to me that europe is poised between the different forces but i wouldnt myself use the word inevitable. You pointed to the naval strength that we take as the last bastion of warfare. Could you quickly shift to the crowned heads of europe so which was it, the dreadnoughts were the people in fact they were pretty dreadful . [laughter] the dreadnoughts were created by people. William was the oldest grandchild and spent his summers in england will. He was having a wish and desire to be accepted by his english family and the british people. His mother was victorias oldest child etc. , etc. He was also the heir to the german throne and subject to the imperial aptitudes and swagger and so forth will. Germany became in that generation from the time williams grandfather became emperor after the collapse of france became the greatest industrial and military power on the continent with a great army, but i wholly agree all these factors, industrial, military and so forth were at the disposition of the apparatus that individuals were updating therefore it was important for these individuals were, what their antecedents have been. William was the emperor of germany and afflicted and psychologically i think afflicted. He had great power before i wont say call it evil but for description and he was constantly shifting back and forth between a desire to do good and be recognized as a factor for good will. Will the racist because william wanted a great navy. Britain and france had already gobbled up the economies but no one knew quite what the german navy was for. The british ask themselves youve got the most powerful army in europe who was it supposed to be building against . One of the seminal events was the end of the host of empires in for empires to an end than any other probably in the history of. By 1913 had these empires become unattainable and this is one of the forces that got us into the conflict. They still thought that they were attainable and the nationalist movement of class was very much sped up by the world war i people in africa and asia saw what they could do a no longer believed that they were better suited but i think what has happened by 1913 is so much of the world is divided up and it wasnt much less. There was a general feeling that we might really and the war and because the Ottoman Empire but what is more important and this goes back, you couldnt be a great power without an empire and we dont think like that and i think that its as much as any other aspect of human activity and there was this belief partly because of the power of 1914 that the entire is what made it dominant. You couldnt be that great power and i would blame also the huge part in this not blame exactly to the influence, the American Naval thinker because he popularized and expressed the ideas that the great powers have empires therefore they give me peace and i think he read that book upon history and said ive never read anything so wonderful. He ordered a copy to be put in the copy i read somewhere that he said sermons should be given about these ideas that made for a very odd sermons. [laughter] he always went overboard. But that is a very narrow slice of time. They are important but not by any means seminal since the arrival of airplanes. There is a narrow slice of time that this would become so critical and there were individuals who headed up the government who would be willing to bow down in the face of that. Is very erratic personality he had a lovehate relationship and he emulated them but also feared them. He was in charge of a very powerful nation. The british king had no power and it wouldnt have been mattered. You have this huge power because of the industry and the economy was booming and they had this powerful romance. So when he took germany and said she could take it he had a great deal of power under the german constitution and that is what made him so dangerous. This sort of imperial presidency doesnt seem to work much anymore. Winston churchill we know very well i was able to dictate so many of the things in the Second World War now dave cameron cant even get him into the world. Certainly barack obama is an example of a president that is struggling to enact has legislation and struggled with decisions. I have always been a lifelong democrat and i remember Adlai Stevenson the first candidate i voted for but ive come to believe that in the period of the 50s in retrospect he had the experience, maybe not the articulation but the experience and the presence and reputation to stand up to kirchhoff and he had military superiority. I think the personality matters. The buildup of the german navy day hanker after for the reasons margaret has eloquently express will wasnt intended as a real challenge to pretend. It was intended as an addon to military power. A great world power. The british army is expert at tiny but deadly. They only had their navy. It provided them with the britannica, they policed seas and among other german commercial trade. Any evidence of another power, continental power, building the ability, creating the ability to invade across the channel and bring their army into britain was unthinkable. The liberal government came in and had all kinds of social plans. Education, old age and so forth. They spent every pound on battleships. Major events like this are in their own prison. Thisll be a proximate cause of the war as timetables dealing with the movements so the question is what is your prism for this crucial period leading up to world war i . Probably very reflective more like the kaleidoscope. I have trouble picking one main causes of war and i dont think there is one. No. The images that are very oppressive and heavy. The series of crisis if you look at them getting closer and closer together the crisis over bosnia and between 1911 to 1914 there was a dangerous sense of complacency that weve gotten through all of these. I think that you get a combination. On the other hand its another crisis that we will get through. My wife and i just traveled and i fascinated as to the role that a plate of office which had great power rivalry in 1906 and 1907 there were other causes but it is particularly dangerous because of where they were the interests met over the south china seas today in the balkans could have a series effectively completing nationalism. But you had his great power interests and going through the mediterranean which was hugely important for russia will. And that austria and hungary that had to be destroyed you had a sort of combination of local rivalries with the powers over the last quartercentury defense any sense of anything that we learned in the archives you could please respond to this as well for their id has changed its still very relevant. To learn what later Fresh Research has taught us a. Going back to russia i would be very interested to read what you and a fellow tha the fellow that the russians started the war and others. It began with, ten months ago is. Beginning with your book to see what you say i need to rethink i would just say talking about the balkans, i always thought the government indiana who was worried about the serbian influence sort of magnetic pole. And increasingly, militarily. A young man under the influence assassinated the heirs of the found a. Everybody in europe, nobody approved i dont know what they would call off the air, but then when serbia gave it been said along with a lot of other things was the austrians must be a part of the Judicial Panel which was going to interrogate and trace back the connections that it had to serbia and so forth. And kaiser was a variant of the german general staff was aware that it was the only ally in europe, that austria was crumbling and they really needed to do something and they decided we are going to make this and they bombarded belgrade and occupied. They were going to strike france down first six weeks to paris. It didnt turn out that way. They were known for the great thinking. This clearly failed so what lessons can we draw from this kind of a dynamic today is this dangerous moment in International Relations where you have those such as germany that are in power but not very tactful in watching their place in the sun and the nations that have been hegemonic powers to do enough to accommodate these powers. I think that the management on both sides and i hope that is something that im not saying it is a declining birth is no longer as powerful as it once was. We had so many relationships why did it work then . In the end, the rulers of the country world cousins but in the end identified completely with the country so when they felt that god had put them there and felt very much the same, they identified themselves deeply with the country. But i think that what you had was nationalist forces pushing. We all think widespread democracy is a good thing and that Public Opinion can sometimes make the relationships more difficult rather than less. If you think of china and japan today it doesnt play a helpful part and it is an Intense National opinion. They need to adjust to the changes and sometimes they get drawn into things by their allies it was the lesser ally of germany and behaved again the great powers in fact sometimes it is very difficult. The United States and israel. There are times china, north korea because the prestige is tied up with the protections that give a free hand. That is a good segue into the next segment that but i would o invite members to join the conversation and reminder this meeting is on the record. Please stand, state your name and affiliation. One question, keep it concise. We will start here and work back. Hispanic professor, some years ago there was a book on the same subject. The focus of the book was to s say. It was much less. Do you agree with that . It is a wonderful book that i thoroughly enjoy. In the end they would have done what they told him. He had the authority. They both often pulled back he had been the architect of the unification of germany and firmly on the side of peace. In the end they gave way and he was affected by the number of his officers. They backed off on previous occasions that there was a conversation that he had intercepted three times im not backing down this time and i think there was a dangerous pressure on him to show that he was prepared to go to war but in the end they made the assertion that we could go on debating it forever. The mobilization plan they stopped that plan which meant they didnt effectively have a plan. The mobilization plan was beautiful with piles of documents they knew where every train was at every moment. But i would claim that civilians that a lot of the military to go on making plans when they should have known better and should have looked at the plans. I think that it could have been done. I tend to believe him but he didnt have the nerve to stand up to his genitals and their expertise. The two words that are most often associated is the war and inevitabilities for counterfactual question, would it have been possible at any moment for if not to have happened . You can certainly see the steps the germans give a blank check but its still not inevitable. I would argue the russian mobilization that treated the turbine mobilization of it have been possible to start. I think that that theyve done this before. I think once they went over it was too late and that was one of the great retrospectives of the plan that was sort of seamless say you got onto the trains and moving so they didnt have the time were probably starting points they could have. I think once they were on the foreign soil, it was impossible to stop, but they could have stopped at any point up until the second of august. Do you think they really expected as. . They gave a very short ultimatum and said he was stopped. They also wanted the germans to promise that they wouldnt switch over theiwould switchovet and east against russia or the fighting had already started. I think ive explained it was impossible to stop and the germans said they were not afraid of the british army. They called it a Contemptible Little Army and said we will deal with it with one hand tied behind our backs. The one empire whose aftershocks are still being felt as the ottomans and i wonder if you could explore what it was ththat led them to decide to enr the war shortly after in 1914, what was the mistake you have on the central powers fight several had been their adversaries before. They themselves had been nibbled away. What do they hope to gain and lowered the consequences within the ottoman politics after three verses that they were taken in for the complete unraveling . You asked me a question i cannot configure the answer. I think they made a calculation that they were in a stronger position and had close relations with germany. The process is constructing the railway and they are seen as friendly and less of a menace but they were also well aware that they had been talking for quite a while it was pretty much Common Knowledge they would cease the straits and that would have been a terrible blow for the Ottoman Empire. So i think it calculated that it was to join the central powers. But it was the argument that it was a terrible burden. But its always amazing to me if theyve managed to stay as long as they did. But in the end beyond the point of all hope in the end it brought thgotthe disintegratione but it was very much calculati calculation, perhaps the wrong population but at the time it seemed like they were going to do okay. Steven eisenberg, City University of new york is a question for the war in. Now that youve written this book, does it make you think anything different about the conduct of the war itself and if you were asked to do another edition of paris 1919 would you do the same things . I dont know about paris 1919, but i find it increasingly interesting one of the things i just referred to. Thewe tend to focus on the horrs of the world but one of the things is just how long they kept pushing and even russia held together until 1917 and was capable of maintaining the troops in the field but that is a question we have not fully yet explored. And the second thing that strikes me more and more, why on earth couldnt they stop when it has becomhad become clear that s a dreadful stalemate as there were no hope and peace and what was it that kept them going on and on. Both of those gothic subjects were really interesting books. [laughter] my question regards the causality in 1967 they bought out the archives and had taken advantage of the crisis and snowball did. He didnt have access to the finals in germany at the time and my question to you is having access to it now, do you agree that it was a bigger cause of the more . I dont have access to it because i wrote my book 22 years ago, and i dont have the strength to overwork that margaret is going to do in the future to defy all the things. Germany, before what would have happened without germany. It could have happened in some form without i think of the other confidential powers. The germans ignored the treaty in 38 or 39 which created belgium and prussia in the german empire and i think also austria, france, britain. And the british behind there was to determinants of the british policy where the royal navy must always be superior to any other power or group of powers. Thats all theyve got. There must be no continental launching pad adjacent to the british house which could be used as a stepping stone or launching pad for an invasion which is going to be larger. I think that the british rules sequentially when they saw the germans building a great navy, there was a chill with various british officials including churchill who tried to drawdown and stop building so many. If you stop they will stop. They basically said nobody tells germany what to do. Officials there navy. We are going to go powers basically. As far as the belgian invasion in persian, it became an invasion once belgium signed the racist but it did that for two reasons. They explained that were excused if he will on this treaty. But they didnt want anybody that close. Napoleon had stood and looked across the channel and this was in cynthia. So they felt that they had to fight to preserve the security of the home islands. I dont know whether that answers your question, but i think that britain could have stayed out and would have despite its understanding. It wasnt a treaty that its understanding with france if they hadnt invaded jammu. I dont know that and that is another thing. They recognized they had already seen germany defeat them watching depression troops they could have tolerated that. And the triple was one once i told something and the other side didnt. They sent a victory. And i think what also happened is when you get those, some of the losses would pick the battles of 1914. Its very difficult thing to say to people this is actually a mistake. Are we going to stop now at the border is going to remain the same. We know what happened once the killing starts, with the blood is shed, it becomes very difficult. I want to ask one question. Were there any peace feelers during the war from either side . The foreign secretary wrote a piece then there was the same for the Pope Benedict sorry, im a protestant, so i dont follow these things. I should. [laughter] there were some but how serious they were there was a growing feeling that there should be peace in the Different Countries and got the socialists voted enthusiastically that are now pulling back and is waiting for how serious, i dont know. Was over the back of the room right there. This is a parlor game question which im sure youve been asked before. If the plan had indeed worked how do you think the rest of the 20th century would have played out and what they all have been better off . I tend to think that is overstating it a bit. I think that the best criticism of the whole notion that you couldnt find that very quickly came from a german general who said you cant roll up a great power and carry it away like a cat in the bag. I think that it would have remained largely intact and its more than likely that they would have found they were dealing with a sort of lowgrade war so im not sure the victory would have necessarily settled things quickly. And i think that they suffered a huge loss of the battle in the late summer of 1914, but there were still a huge amount of. They always had a great asset of land and its capacity to retreat so it is possible that going back to the assumption it would have been a very unhappy continent of europe as germany y had won and managed to persuade, it probably would have taken a big chunk and build it back to britain and you would have had a triumphant germany but more reactionary elements and realistic elements woul elemente been there in the society, but there was again a sort of interplay among the forces, the pacifists, the pope forces in germany into the would have been crushed for the german victory. And every action about getting rid of the constitution and defaulting the socialist party i think would have had the upper hand so europe would have been dominated by them which would have been more authoritarian and sooner or later if this had to do something because the continent dominated by one power is always a bad thing. And you might have had the generations [inaudible] yes, indeed. I think that she made a very good point. He made an extraordinary sound point underscoring how commonplace the prospect of the four became as close to 1914. I remember reading the same in your great how ordinary the thought of the four became to the european statesmen and officials, but a half a generation earlier in the time of bismarck and salisbury, europeans got their Heads Together and stayed out of the war and put the preservation of balance and peace at a much higher level. What happened to the european statesmanship in the past generation that made the war so much were likely in 1914 . That is a very good question. I think partly enough to remember that the people have experienced and you had people e that remembered the napoleonic war and how they have damaged the society so i think that there was a willingness to invest a lot of peace and stability after 1815. By the time you reach the second half of this country, those memories have gone. It seems a bit like the generation that has come out of the Second World War and wants to build a new world order to prevent such things from happening again and then that generation moves to the scene and the other generations dont have the same visceral reaction because they havent experienced it. So i think that the passage of time has made a difference. I think that people forget, and sometimes this is just coincidence, sometimes you get a good one and sometimes you dont. You had a is raley, melbourne, bismarck before extraordinary fe into my criticism of bismarck is a genius but with the system behind that only he could operate and that is i think what made your and germany so problematic is the removal from office. But i think that simply wasnt a single innocent appreciation of what works for me and of course youve also got this characteristic is even we can discount or ignore it. There was plenty of evidence bouncing up to any future war that involved the great power was likely to be enormously costly and a stalemate because it is a growing part of the defenses and the genitals and those about such things tended to dismiss it and people said that the american civil war, those attacking took of the losses into the genitals of those are the americans they are not proper soldiers, it was a civil war. We fight for the proper war we can still do the attack. Youve got this time and time again and so i think it i that a genuine unwillingness. Youve also got another in which i think you often get. That is you get a Younger Generation by 1900 germany for example they said they are so tired of hearing about how they thought that was a glorious unification. We would like our own adventure and excitement and you do get the same thing in france and britain and Younger Generations saying we missed out on all of these and its very easy to see when you havent experienced it. You do get the sense in your book that was seen as glorious. You had to participate. The initial reaction. Not everybod everybody greeted h excitement. There was a lot of dismay but i think for a lot of them we have the chance to prove ourselves in ways that we havent had up until now i am the executive editor and i have a question youve been talking about how there was this idea of a happy little more that they havent experienced in this kind of way before. Also you are talking about the allies and im wondering if theres any comparison to be made with the neocons that help to sort of create the drumbeat for the war. I think that you would have a lot to say about it. Ive already said i am a lifelong middleoftheroad democrat. That said, thats all im going to say. [laughter] i do think that those that havent fought an idea why is it. Weve now got even political leaders and generations up until kennedy and nixon or even george bush senior, people who experienced war firsthand and i think they have a different attitude episode of the genitals they are much less gung ho than the civilians at. That there is a lot of talk about the war and we should be careful with such talk especially if you are not the people but to pay the price for it. 1913. Some of the generals, some of the statesmen on both sides will suggest we should look back and say they were all lovely. One footnote, the father, frederick, wasnt like his son. He married an english woman. He was a liberal. If he hadnt died of cancer after 99 days or 90 days and hinted the phone to this child who needed to prove his manhood etc. , etc. I think given the power of the kaiser cited as a major factor, frederick could have one. Its one of those big wet kiss. He had plans to make it a much more constitutional form of government much more control over the government. He wanted to strengthen. I think it is one of the tragedies. Really i think he would have made a difference. And really wanted to do everything in the opposite direction. I want to ask my friend a question. Given the fact the rising powers with the United States by the party play a role in stopping this war had they wished to do so . Going back to the first part, i think what is interesting in the relationship is that it was managed very well. And they scared each other because they came to war with venezuela and the background and they came to an understanding and it is a successful example of how the changes in the balance can be managed. They felt it wasnt its war and it had no interest. The atlantic was divided. You could disagree wit that thas how people saw it at the time. It was a rising power but not the power that was going to come. Was in the power of translating its considerable and growing economic power into military power. It was beginning to build a dignity that there was still pretty new and it was very small. The American Army at this stage was called the army of italy and its a much smaller power. So i think the United States didnt have the capacity at this stage and it certainly didnt have the will. The reaction we can tell from the Public Opinion theyve gone crazy over this. We dont want to get involved and it was very divided about which side. All the irish living in the United States and of course there was a huge german population. An estimated quarter of americans were german dissent in this period they had plans to raise an army so they were distracted. Let me add something. Woodrow wilson ran for a second term and kept us out of war. It was the american entry into the war that made germany quite. After, when the dreadnoughts deadlocked, they never came out again. He agreed to let them put everything he had. They started torpedoing. Wilson reluctantly during the fall of 1916 after his election trying to decide what to do he gave the german ambassador he said if you dont stop doing this, torpedoing the american ships, something is going to happen. And finally, they kept torpedoing. Americans were drowning et cetera, et cetera. And wilson took it to congress and they voted overwhelmingly for the war. The kaiser had actually said to the naval staff what does this precipitate in the american response. The chief of the naval said i promise your majesty not one single american soldier will step up on the continent of europe. In november of 1914, there were 2 million friends, only 600,000 of them were at the front, and 2 million more in the United States and they took a look. They were dying in the hundreds of thousands adhesive weve got to quit. We have time for one more question. The question for you is have we entered the age only of opinion with respect to how this will begin. All began. I asked the question in light of the observation that history can be found in the archives. Is every archive now available and can you actually determine what the facts are based upon the availability of the information or should we always be disputing these issues . I dont think theres much to be discovered in the archives that some things we know have been destroyed. It was the high commander archives were destroyed in the Second World War. The russians took some back to moscow and i think pretty much released everything that they have had. The serbian archives have intensively explored at. I think it is fairly clear that the evidence knew what was going on. Otherwise i think there isnt a great undiscovered passion. But i dont think we are going to come to any agreement because our viewpoints will keep changing it because it is such a complex event. The Second World War is quite clear that certain powers wanted or prepared for the war and other students once before and i think you can see very clearly how that unfolded. But i think it is such a complex collection of events and the historians have been doing is deepening the context so we know much part of the society of the time. And the interest in the studies done in things that education. What were people running in their schools because with the older generation says is how they think o about themselves ad that plays into the world. We know more now about the interesting work on honor and masculinity and dealing. I think that we will keep the shifting or gathering more information. But i suspect they will be sitting here a hundred years from now looking at the new batch. I cant think of a better way to end this. [laughter] [applause] available for purchase outside. Thank you so much. [applause] is a discussion with other historians about their favorite historical subjects. This from the writers festival in california. Please log onto th welcome to te douglas brinkley, Margaret Macmillan and jon meacham. [applause] i hope you are having as much fun as i
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