What about the pandemic in 1918 . With that time. And then to focus on the differences because 981 1918 of us several messages the biggest one is to understand what was killing people. And it will kill 150 Million People worldwide and they did not know what it was that was killing him so the word comes from the word influence they thought it was the stars of the planet was killing them because they were misaligned. So what comes out of 1918 is the communities and we are in a very different place within two weeks of the coronavirus they publish the full genome of the covid19 virus in publishing it in the major us journal for here in the us and around the world to read. And what was the number one thrust. Based on what was published in january are you surprised of where we are today early april . I am surprised there are often reports of novel viruses that are described it is not unusual to read of the cases that they flare up we have had several over the decades for china or hong kong or elsewhere in the far east generally they go away and we watch them with curiosity. I will be honest the rapidity with which this current pandemic spread certainly surprised me and many others as well. Host you wrote the following just one century is all that separates us from a Global Health crisis more than any other illness in recorded history but we have learned in the interim is not to scare or motivate us but enough to stop another pandemic from happening because of the ability to mutate and spread the flu is one of mankinds most dangerous foes. Thats right. On the midst of the coronavirus pandemic and to remind everybody coronavirus is a winter virus that has a seasonality just like the flu season that begins in the fall going through the early spring and coronavirus thats how many people would have had a Coronavirus Infection sometime in their lives because they have colds over the winter which is very common and usually goes away in 1918 is it went away in the spring having caused some devastation and came back quickly in the fall it just reared up again because there is a seasonality to the virus to cause tremendous devastation through the early winter of 1919 so the big question is will covid19 act like a normal coronavirus that it doesnt like warm or humid weather . So will that tend to disappear. And that it will act like a winter virus but then what happens in the fall . And with the pandemic of light 18 1918. Host then another flu virus in 1957. That affected americans around the world this is a documentary produced in partnership with the American Medical Association on what happened in 1957. Leaving the responsibility to prepare the United States with the impending battle of asian influenza the Surgeon General of the United States doctor, i imagine you and your staff has been gathering an enormous amount of material on asian flu everybody that i know has talked about influenza but i dont think anybody really knows what it is. An upper respiratory infection like a cold the difference between asian influenza over the past few years is that this strain began in hong kong and i was spread to the rest of the world including the United States. If it is a problem in our community we assume it is yours as well why are we concerned about it now . Thats a very good question because in the other countries even the outbreaks of had in this country so far the attack occurs in metropolitan pittsburgh were of 1 Million People if we have the flu here approximately 200,000 people would become ill between four and six weeks this would have a tremendous impact on the econom economy. From Westinghouse Broadcasting from 1957 and more recently doctor brown in 19 indicating 16000 americans died from the standard influence why does it remain such a mystery . The challenge of influenza i would phrase it differently it is not a mystery but the biggest challenge that we have is to find a vaccine so of course your viewers know they get a flu vaccine that the difference of that like measles and mumps and rubella. The challenge is that it is a shape shifter and well we can become immune to a certain strain this means that new strains can infect us will not be recognized from the immune system. So the challenge it is a universal vaccine it will be all strains of the flu. And also not to be given year after year after year. Those are the challenges of influenza. And then to find out the part of the flu virus to direct to the immune system against that unchanging piece of the virus. It sounds very easy to do but in fact is very challenging. When it comes to covid19 and there will be different challenges but certainly it has to be figured out year after year. And there will be different strains of covid19. All the charges are quickly trying to work out a vaccine as quickly as possible. Host the book is influenza. Caller good morning. My question and comment has to do with all of this but i havent heard anybody ask yet on any of your shows, i woke up this morning to the mike Murdoch Mysteries asking for money agai again. All these evangelical leaders that have millions of dollars and multiple homes and private planes, what are they doing . Are they giving up their money like the sports franchise owners have done to get the ppe and ventilators. If anything is of the best way for them to show gods love and so the seeds . I would like to know why no one is looking at that and nobody is asking that. That they have their congregations endangering peoples health. Nobody is directing anything to them. I just believe that is antichristian and anti god. We will just let that comment stand. You can comment on comment if you want did they understand social distancing in 1918 . They certainly did a quarantine has been around for hundreds and hundreds of years. It was with the great plague that struck europe. With the 40 days quarantine and coming from that biblical idea something magical and mysterious so it has been known for many many centuries it was also a practice during the very foundations of this country when the pilgrims were first coming over from england there was a devastating smallpox pandemic killing between 80 n95 percent of the Indigenous People of this country and even back then there was the notion or the suggestion to distance ourselves. We have early quarantine rules from the 17 twenties and separation so even though we had no idea that was killing us it was certainly a social distancing. And it was widely practiced they would wear face masks in public and this is something that does work. Virginia good morning. Caller good morning that audio clip from 1918 was very interesting from pennsylvania that is exactly 70 miles due north from where i am located in morgantown. But earlier in the show about people talking about calling this monday morning quarterback at the moment we appear to have two times the number of cases than any other country in the world. It appears with the modeling that we will have way more deaths than any other country in the world they talk about the second wave coming in the fall were in the winter. I dont know if it is monday morning quarterbacking to take a look at what has been done that should have been done differently because it appears it will just not go away as our president initially said that it would it is very discouraging especially at a time like this about how to get them out but we have to take a look at what was done and that complete lack of preparedness and is a direct contribution or will be a direct contribution to the vast number of deaths we experience in this country. So the important aspect is to figure out what we could have done better and to limit the infection that each of us is doing our part. But you are quite right we will have to ask some very important questions with Scientific Research how we allocate our resources and it isnt surprising that pandemic preparedness is put to the side as the impressing that we have all learned that we certainly need to think as a community what we can do Going Forward to be better prepared so that was the parliamentary inquiry in the Magic Kingdom and with those important changes and now we are many months away and to have the different priority. If covid19 is similar to past viruses then if you have it are your immune from getting in the future . Generally speaking yes. Then you are generally immune from further infections on that specific strain this is true of all viruses and those of the virus and is incapacitated as it were any remain immune to the virus for the rest of your life so will covid19 act like all the other viruses with a lifetime immunity . It seems likely but then the question talks about the strain and influenza and they have different strains does immunity to one strain translate to other strains . For influenza that does not occur if you get a vaccine against one strain you are still susceptible to a different strain so now to a specific strain and not be immune to a different strain and then to focus the scientific work. Our guest has written textbooks on emergency medicine published by Oxford University press and George Washington university and currently the Director Office of emergency care. Joining me from fremont ohio go ahead. Caller good morning. I feel somewhat connected to the spanish flu because i remember hearing the stories two little boys one was six and one was for and grandma said that there was so much death around death. In hearing about it it doesnt seem like that long ago. And i was reading we have identified 3000 different viruses and i guess there were thousand more. Can the virus be created in a petri dish . And the spanish flu a call it the spanish flu because it started in spain but then it actually started over here so do we know for sure where it actually started i am 74 years old and i remember consoling my grandma because she was never able to get over it and was telling me in the same year months apart when she lost charles and then arthur she doesnt remember but she had him in her arms and refuse to let go of him and she just lost her mind and could not bear to lose another child. Host thank you for the call. And sharing the story of your grandmother. Of course that is a terrible story and you have a personal connection and the story repeated millions of times across the world. Just to take a couple of questions that you raise, yes viruses can be created in the lab. In fact the 1918 virus was for experimental reason so science can better understand it and today was genetic engineering that could be changed so we could understand how the function would change those natural mutations with the Scientific Understanding of how viruses work. And that it was called spanish flu which it was an you are correct. It did not originate in spain but it was reported widely because during the great war there was an agreement between the newspaper editors and the governments to try to keep the bad news of influence off the pages while there are some reports of influence on the front pages the vast majority relegate to the inside of the back page spain was a neutral company and did not have this agreement to keep influenza off the front page of the newspaper so that outbreak was because it was a neutral country so people started to refer to it as the spanish flu but it was reported there. The first theory is that it started here in the United States the evidence that supports that is influenza with early january and february and went to visit the patients on horseback in the 18 cases of flu and reported this in the journal of then has spread to the United States and that is one theory and there is evidence to support whether 1918 pandemic originated or that they originated in northern france there were reports of the influenza outbreak and one theory says it began then across the world all at once 19182 years later that would explain how the virus would manage to travel across the world with no edge but yet the virus appeared very quickly with the suggestion that over the previous two years it came from france but then comes all at once across the world. The third and final theory is that circulates today is it began in china several months before the outbreak of the pandemic and it is suggested the virus was brought with Chinese Workers because they were hired in a supporting role of the frontlines of the european theater in that they inadvertently brought where the pandemic began but we do know for sure but we know where coronavirus began. But patient zero f 55 yearold man first diagnosed november and chinese officials realized middecember they had a new strain of a new virus do we know who patient zero is . No. But there will be a great amount of scientific work that will congregate around that person if it is correct these need to be verified of course but and that was symptomatic. That we have to be very careful about calling this patient the first one that then we can understand through molecular genetics what the initial virus look like as it appears around the world. The author of influence. Joining outside his home in washington dc good morning melanie. Caller. I am from indiana. My first question is i wanted to ask if we had the flu again. We get it again . But my question was answered. Second, is this what you call biological warfare . I spent 20 years and the service i will not say which branch but i recognize the problem is is still considered biological warfare. That means somebody designed the bacteria and released it to cause death and destruction so once you go on that path you have to ask yourself that nobody gains from this there is strong Scientific Evidence it is a completely natural virus so the burden of proof is on them and scientists have looked at this virus very carefully Group Published in the journals in the last couple of weeks why all the evidence shows this is a naturally occurring virus from where this originated and the suggestion and with this virus to suggest anything with the natural mutation with all kinds of theories of biological warfare and then to be a wakeup call and must be taken very seriously. Can you clear up the conspiracy theories this was a virus to harm the us . Look around the world extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence but nobody is gaining from this. Nobody has gained the release of this virus so that is a silly suggestion if they want to make it then come up with the evidence. Texas good morning speeseventeen i would like to offer a statistical support for the effectiveness of social distancing specifically to have essential and nonessential social distancing will help but it seems all those people in bars and restaurants are now at the Grocery Store with the same virus they wouldve carried the other places and now theyre going to the Grocery Store more often with the shortages. You are correct those that carry the virus is that they do but there is an important caveat first of all we should limit the times we go out by what you need for the entire week at the beginning of the week maybe there are shortages of some important things so limit the time you go out but when they are outside of the host and with those a day or more but the amount that will exist is relatively small so the risk of getting the virus is very small compared to the risk so if we limit the amount of contact we can have is that is the number way that all these viruses are spread. Las vegas good morning. Caller good morning. First of all i am a 63 yearold disabled veteran my first question is every couple of years i have to take a test for my colon we have to take a stool sample and put it in a tube and mail it out and get the results from primary care. Why cant we as a nation do that for this test . And so to develop that would be restrictive because of covid19 but because it is in the influence of family that we could all mail in and get those results back and then to combat the virus. And from those other examples so it is possible with what you suggested with that selfadministered to put it in the tube and mail it and get a result for an example we have that now you get a test that will detect hiv and not only develop that is socially and psychologically that we have tests like that so consider hiv was not only described and then by the middle of the 20 tens we have that selfadministered test for that infection so it takes a while but i would not be surprised over the next many of years we end up seeing these viruses that would be a home test. Host maryland good morning. Caller an interesting conversation. I work for a company that we test for Genomic Testing and serologic testing so the opinion on the surveillance like the flu. And that genomic assay and to screen for all of those pathogens as well as the surveillance there is a second wave. It is terribly important and that occurs in the background so in washington dc and those pathogens people deliberately spreading them so we do have those civilian tests with that detection to detect these pathogens not only about detecting them and so to be a carrier of pathogen and im sure people will be very heavily focused in the public and private sector and with surveillance to understand and then comes the translation of those thin findings make some meaningful policy. Host i just received an email from nbc meet the press and i want to read the quotation he just told nbc chuck todd the next week will be our pearl harbor moment it will be our 9 11 moment it will be the hardest moment for Many Americans and their entire live lives. When you hear that this morning what is your reaction . Something i have discussed widely with my own family we are seeing a very bifurcated response people that are completely untouched by this and then to still go about their daily lives almost unchanged and that medical devastation has been overwhelming paycheck to paycheck they cannot pay their rent or the next mortgage payment is what we are seeing is this bifurcation and for others to be scratching their heads. And that this is a Beautiful Day and it really is to put us in the pearl harbor moment and then to put the thoughts and prayers to make the lives of the First Responders and they are on the front lines for the second vulnerable today. The last call of the day. Caller good morning. I have a question. If hiv has two components does corona also have two components as part of the immune system then that does respiratory damage . If that is the case why couldnt the hiv medicine if thats the case . With hiv medicine thats a different virus and looking at that antiviral medication and at least a 100 Clinical Trials with those medications to fight the virus and that aspect we are now beginning to understand with other kinds of other damage that actually affects the brain and unpredictable ways of neurological symptoms so this is another area to understand that virus more than attacking the lungs and keep her eyes on this in the way that the coronavirus works. The book is called influenza also the director of Office Emergency Care Research thank you for being with us
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