Studies. So good afternoon. Im the director and associate fellow of the Americas Program set csis and it is my pleasure to welcome you today. We are very excited to host such a distinguished panel to discuss this topic. Last december, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, better known as amlo, took office in mexico. He won the election in july 2018 in a landslide victory on an leftwing platform that promised to among other things promote the respect of human rights, improve the economy, work to end ongoing drug war and address corruption at all levels of government. For many mexicans and was rep centered a paradigm shift from the governance of the past two decades and sees himself as a remedy to ineffective government responses to corruption and violence. Yesterday marks the First Anniversary of his inauguration and during his first year in office amyl has enjoyed a record high approval rating. However in the past year hes also seen challenges on many fronts including mexicos security, economy and migration. Today will discuss his Campaign Promises, how they have fared in his first year and what to expect going forward. Today im joined by four experts, carlos bravo regidor is associate professor and court nadir of the Journalism Program at the center for Economic Research and teaching in mexico city. His areas of academic expertise our history and contemporary politics in mexico and the United States, the bilateral relationship between both countries and media and journalism. He is also a contributor to various printed Media Outlets and a commentator on radio and television. Rebecca chavez is a senior fellow at the interamerican dialogue. She served as Deputy Assistant secretary of defense for western Hemisphere Affairs from 20132017. Before joining that she was professor of Political Science with ten of the United States Naval Academy in annapolis, maryland. Her research has focused on western hemisphere security at the comparative politics with an emphasis on the rule of law, democratization, human rights and latin american politics. Antonio garrastazu is the regional director for latin america and the caribbean at the International Republican institute. Tony served as a director of the center for Global Impact at iri and oversaw the institutes programming in central america, haiti and mexico. Before joining iraq he served as director of business and Government Relations and was the Deputy Director at International Affairs at the Florida Office of tourism, trade and economic development. Joining us today by video is gladys mccormick, the chair on mexicou. S. Relations at the Maxwell School of citizenship and Public Affairs at Syracuse University where she focuses on contemporary political and economic history of latin america, and more specifically mexico corruption, Drug Trafficking and Political Violence pics you senior associate with the cis Americas Program. Thank you to all of you for being with us here today. So to begin the conversation, carlos, what was the reason for his landslide victory last year and what drew voters to him . [inaudible] well, i think in order to understand the landslide victory of Lopez Obrador at the first thing we need to understand is the fiasco of opinion yet tells administration. There were at least three issues that became very salient and a source of a lot of popular discontent during the previous administration. Number one was corruption and impunity. Of course this is not new certainly in mexican history but during the media tell administration, the level of corruption, particular the level of public scrutiny regarding corruption, journalistic scandals regarding corruption reached an unprecedented level, and even touched upon the the present himself, a scandal called pena nietos white house in which basically a Government Contractor from when pena nieto was governor of the state of mexico built a house for pena nietos wife for mexicos first lady, of which there was no evidence of payment. And this was bound to become him anyway sort of a mexican watergate. The scandal was so big and so infuriating, but with a small difference. With watergate, watergate ended up leading to the president resignation, and in the case of mexico it led to the firing of the journalist who had done the research. So that was like an impressive moment in his term this happen in november of 2014. And from then on corruption, scandals kept on piling up. There was this sense that the country was up in flames because of the violence, that would be like the second issue. Between 20112014 it was an important dissent in the homicide levels. But from 2014, 2015 on it resumed and now it is reached historical levels that mexico didnt have even in the worst years of phillipe called around. So while it was happening, the sense that the Political Class or the governing class was just like devoted to corruption, really ended up becoming a very explosive political mix here and the third ingredient of it of course was a very growing and keen sense of injustice, of inequality. Because a very mediocre Economic Growth rate, a poverty poverty has gone down but very gradually, very slowly. And also with inequality, so the was this sense, and this was global of course. But during the last decade has been a keen awareness of injustice in terms of poverty and inequality of mexico was no exception. These issues became like like y explosive political mix. On the other hand, there were three conditions of possibility for amlos landslide. The first of which was when pena nieto came to power there was this thing called and agreement between party elites to push forward an agenda of modernizing reforms which were in the agenda of pena nieto but the opposition parties didnt necessarily agree with, but they went on with it anyway. This created sort of the impression that Political Parties were interchangeable, particularly the leaders of the parties, their legitimacy was supposed to be in their capacity to represent the difference between the platforms, their electric, their party members. These differences were nowhere to be found at the beginning of pena nietos term. So that was really the sense of that mexicos transition to Democracy Party system was voiding itself of any significant meaning. The second thing was as a consequence of this and a consequence of the fact that the three main parties started voting together in a lot of these reforms, the opposition parties lost credibility as opposition. The ban on the purity, were supposed the opposition parties were voting for the government. And Lopez Obrador had left the prd in 2012 and adding your project on a new party which came to in existence, i dont think it was 20142015 by he was pretty much out of the everyday political game creating his own political party. He was outside of these crisis, party system crisis dynamic. The third thing, the current condition of possibility were all these reforms that were done, it was inflation of expectation because of selling of reforms and Public Opinion. But these together with one of the key elements of the mexican transition to democracy was a gradualist reformism. Reforms every now and then and things would get better and better. I think with this last generation of reforms under pena nieto people got fed up because the reforms, the cost of the reforms was her evident but the actual benefits were uncertain or ambiguous. So all of these conditions together with the issues i just mentioned, the violence, corruption, impurity, and injustice ended up turning Lopez Obrador into the only credible opposition candidate. The election was clearly an election about change, and there was nobody who could actually, like, credibly embody or give voice to the hopes of change but Lopez Obrador. Lopez obrador had been rented this is his third time as president ial candidate. He didnt win the first two times 50 didnt recognize his defeat, but he certainly come his defeats, but he certainly learned from them. This time around he was a much more practical, and much more conciliatory figure, and he ended up becoming like this great magnet for political discontent that ended up creating an historical result. Hes the first president in the history of mexican democracy gof god absolute majority of the popular vote and whose party got majorities in both houses. And carlos, you mentioned change. How did amlo promised change during the campaign in the beginning of his tenure . Well, Lopez Obrador has been promising change for 20 years. He was a member of the, his young years, he became a member of the prd, like the centerleft party during the transition process. He was the leader of that party. He then became major mexican city between 20002005 and president ial candidate in 2006, 2012 and 2015. Lopez obrador, theres this sink in the u. S. I think applies wonderfully to Lopez Obrador which is a clock that has stopped working is right still twice a day. And in many ways this happen with Lopez Obrador and the criticism and the rhetoric of Lopez Obrador has developed throughout the years about number one corruption, about what he calls the mafia in power. And about, like the senseless violence and the war. It just started making a lot of sense during the pena nieto years. In electoral terms, Lopez Obrador has had about 50 million vote, like loyal voter since 2006, and this time he had 30 million votes. During the pena nieto years he was able to persuade another 15 million voters. On the one hand, it might be because he is the figure thats very antagonistic, very critical. He knows how to speak the language of disappointment in many ways, and what he promised basically was to eradicate corruption. We can go into, nike has redefined what corruption means in mexico in many ways. His vision of corruption is much moral or personal and policy oriented. He has the merit of being a political figure in the midst of a Political Class that has been all been discredited because of corruption scandals. Hes a political figures that nobody has been able to accuse of personally enriching himself, like from corruption schemes. So that was gold in this election. All parties, all groups, all politicians have one way or another a scandal that hunted in. Lopez obrador didnt. So terms of corruption he became a very important figure. Also in terms of economic adjustment his bottle was for the good of everybody, let the poor come first. Of course in a country like mexico where this keen awareness of poverty and inequality grew exponentially during the last years, of course this message resonated a lot with the mexican public. And finally he was an early critic of the Security Strategy or the war against drug cartels from the very beginning. Weve had enough evidence during these years that actually the way in which the Calderon Administration waged war against organized crime, against drug cartels actually produced more violence than it actually sold. Of course Lopez Obrador has taken this knowledge or this information to the extreme of assuming that then the solution might be not to exert force, which is kind of a bit too much. But in in a way his criticismss diagnosis of what was wrong with the country started making about assisting the last six years, and that was the basis of his promise of change. As i mentioned up top and as carlos started getting into, one of the major areas where amlo ultimate significant Campaign Promises and also faced significant challenges is mexican economic policy. Tony, how did amlo promise to specifically improve the economy while on the campaign, and what has he delivered on and what is still outstanding . Great, thank you. And its great to be here. So in general, amlos Campaign Promises have been fulfilled. In terms of the principal Campaign Promises, increase gdp, increase minimum salary by 50 . It went to 16th, formal employment also increased. No increase in taxes. However, taxes on savings and phone apps have increased. He has respect of the economy of the central bank which has really stabilize the Exchange Rate and really the locust or conflation, about 3 . Hes guaranteed youth employment, though the plant in motion has been met with skepticism by some. He has really tried to redo energy policy, refineries with quite a bit of investment. Hes tried increase investment in infrastructure projects. However, the national autonomous, the National Airport in mexico city which was the new Mexico Airport was canceled and lost about 13 billion, so theres been some, quite a bit of contradictions in that. One of the things, despite some of his Campaign Promises that have been fulfilled, the way they been fulfilled that you can think are more worrisome at least in my mind. Some decisions have been made more out of political necessity and economic prowess, and really centered around one thing, and thats amlo. So the continuing of the weakness of the institution. For example, in his most recent state of union address, he really said Income Distribution will remain a priority over Economic Growth, arguing that redistributing wealth is better government policy, able to help with economic development, help the poor. But again there so structural adjustment that is been able to do that. He delivered very easy quick wins. For example, tripping president of pensions, not using the president ial jet although its my understanding it still has not been sold so it is in the hangar and still paying quite a bit month on the lease. And really, like the mexican white house, the blair house executive office allinone, to the public. This has really impacted Public Perception and thats why he has over 60 approval rating, and a poll done by a couple of months ago indicated that 51 , over 51 of citizens really view the actual situation both personal and family, as much better than it did before amlo took office, i think an increase of about 9 . Again its this perception that people are really kind of focusing in on. One of his Campaign Promises that was a little more specific was a 4 gdp growth each year. What would that have looked like for the average mexican, and what did the growth that actually happen this year mean for, for mexicans . I mean, has been weak about 35,000 jobs every month which is less than pena nietos first year in office. Which kind of think back is kind of worrisome, a little bit on the economy but the reason youve had these employment generation, as you know youve had some stabilization in inflation, Exchange Rate. You know, together with an increase in salaries can generate a perception of wellbeing. Global commerce is at a bit of a slow rhythm, and the deceleration of the economy. Mexico did pass legislation for the u. S. Mexico canada freetrade agreement. Were still waiting for the canadians and the u. S. And hopefully that will help kind of getting things started. Although Price Waterhouse and cooper Status Survey a few months ago where 42 thought the economy was on the right track. Yet this represents a decrease in confidence because the same time last year in 2018 survey, 57 were optimistic. There is overregulation business and a lot of uncertainty which means asked where mexicans concert with her investment is mostly in the u. S. And some in china as well. Speaking of investments, weve heard a lot of members of the private sector in mexico express concern over his proposed economic policies or his style. What are those concerns . Are they founded . Thats for you, tony. Okay. Well, i i mean, like is that its the lack of confidence, the weakening of the institutions that really have been kind of hurting because everything is been concentrated around political or politics. Thats a very, very grave concern. One issue, for example, for 2020 budget is also a concern, so it was passed what, november 22, 23rd, the 2020 budget. One of the things that was even though its here. 8 increase over laster, one of the concerns is the autonomous entity suffered the most cuts, the National Institute for telecom indications and effect most controversial, a list for folks in our line of work is the cat, i think the largest in its history since 2014 of the National Electoral institute. Because of the lyrical evocations, in it we worked a lot, at least as iri we werent quite a bit on electoral observation around the world and weve used it as a sharing of best practices, Lessons Learned around the world. The latest one was el salvador actually where we brought in folks to learn some best practices and how the due and election day. They are a very highly regarded institution characterized by its values, independence, autonomy. This is quite worrisome, particularly given the 2020 midterm federal elections that will renew completely the congress, which has carlos mentioned, marina has the majority in both houses, so this is something thats very worrisome and actually the president is in town this week aching the rounds talking about his concerns. Carlos, did you have anything . Ill wait. Great. Another question. So mexico has ratified usmca. It is currently pending ratifying here in canada. If its ratified by all three countries have this impact the mexican economy . And if not, how do you think that amlo could respond to a potential renegotiation . I think a u. S. Mexicocanada trade agreement will definitely strengthen the mexican economy. Obviously that overall of north america. It was a need of an update if you will. I think amlo is tempered by a modernizing mexico. That is largely embraced and depend upon a free market economy, obviously integrated with the u. S. I dont think amlo is an international is by nature but he recognizes kind of mexicos leading role. Its the 11th largest economy in the world. 15th largest exporter. It leads the world in freetrade agreements and especially rely on economic links with the United States. Its something report to keep in mind and 80 of mexicos exports go to the United States, more than 40 of Foreign Investment originates from american companies. So nafta is important. Nafta, the way that it has been renegotiated i think will have the support from the democrats because a lot of the issues theyre concerned about, you can see reflected in this agreement which is very positive. I think it will definitely should get past. If it doesnt there will be a lot of, a big business crisis around north america because it will not only impact mexico but the United States as well. And also the u. S. Election also impact mexico, something to think about is so i think a trade agreement should be first and foremost on the top of the political agenda for all those countries involved. As weve already touched on Security Issues were a major topic of the Campaign Last year, so rebecca, how did amlo promise to improve the security situation in mexico, and has he succeeded with any of those promises . Unfortunately, this is an area of really bad news. So during the campaign amlo promised to address the security crisis, carlos, you mentioned how great it was. He also promised to do so without relying on the military. This was your point about called around calling the military in 2006 and amlo is critical because of the rice and extradition of killing. He also pledged to get the military all of the streets and strengthen the police. I will say though your point about the diagnosis i do agree with amlos point about the necessary to address the root cause of the violence. He talks about poverty eradication, employment, educational opportunities, prevention programs for atrisk youth. I think these are all wonderful ideas but theyre going to take a long time. They are going to require tremendous resource and sustained focus. In the meantime we still have this crisis in mexico. So the Public Security crisis is graver than ever. The military is still on the streets and theres been no significant progress when it comes to Police Reform. So as far as the actual security situation today, so homicides are on track to reach a record high for the second year in a row. The events, the massacre of the mormon family in sonora highlighted this situation over the weekend, the shootings near the border with texas, so great celebrations about the oneyear anniversary while there is this massive incident of cartel violence. Also there were a protest in mexico city over the weekend about the violence. 50 of mexicans, this is according to the Latin American Public opinion poll out of vanderbilt university, 50 of mexicans feel unsafe in their neighborhood. 20 20 feel they have to move. 56 , and this is from october, 56 of mexicans report that the amlo Security Strategy is failing. His National Plan for peace and security. And really troubling, 56 of mexicans report that organized crime is stronger than the government. So these are not great, this is not good news. As for as the militarization of Law Enforcement in mexico, once amlo was in office, he was pretty quick to recognize that the federal cohesive this is a bit of reality, the federal police is not prepared. So we did not call the troops off the streets. And what he did is he created this National Guard which im sure most folks here are tracking, which in theory was going to kind of diminished reliance on the military and the idea was that in five years, once the National Guard is fully operational, then he can call the military off of the streets, but the fact is that the National Guard itself is demilitarized institution. Its hybrid. The head is, there was a lot of debate about this new National Guard and human Rights Groups were really concerned. So when the constitutional amendment was passed, they did rather than have the ministry of defense in charge of, a civilian is in charge. Its the secretary of secured and civilian protection. However, if you look at the makeup of the National Guard, most top commanders are indeed members of the military. And also its something to note about the National Guard. It was created to address the Public Security crisis, but President Trump place a lot of pressure on the Mexican Government, on amlo, to address the migration crisis from the northern triangle, and he threatened to place significant tariffs on mexican goods. And it is exchange amlo, and exchange, in order to not place the tariffs on the mexican goods, amlo promised to send 6000 National Guard members to patrol mexicos southern border, the border with guatemala to stop Central American migrants. So again the plan was to send the National Guard to the most violent parts of the country, and instead we see 6000 troops diverted to the southern border. Finally what ill say is on the Police Reform is the campaign talked a lot about strengthening civilian Law Enforcement, but the plan, if you look at the actual plan, the National Security plan for peace and security, Police Reform does not, does that figure heavily in the plan and there was really no detailed offramp to get the military off the street. And how does his Security Policy compared to that of his predecessor, specifically pena nieto . So what were really seeing is its not much of a change. In fact, the National Guard has a lot in common with pena nietos. In 2014, pena nieto propose or actually started this which you may wish looks at the National Guard but that fizzled off very quickly. Again reliance on the military continues to be a central part of the strategy, and its kind of facing some of the same problems that it did under both pena nieto and calderon. And you mentioned the National Guard had significant criticism from human Rights Groups when it was created. Could you elaborate on why that was an sort of the back story and history . In large part because it is a very militarized force, the Human Rights Group in mexico have for a long time express great concern about the role of the military and Law Enforcement, in particular the rice in human rights abuses by members of the military. So it comes from that history of human rights abuses and again that failure to build up the federal civilian police. As rebecca mentioned mixed results weight of one of its most violent years inserting the last decade. Gladys, can you explain to us a little bit about why that is, whats behind that uptick . Sure. And thanks for having. I think theres a series of reasons why 2019 is on track to break all records. Since the Mexican Government has been keeping records, right . Its because of the crisis that amlo inherited back in december 1 at 22. He inherited something that was years of mismanagement and the growth of the drug war and so on. Theres some of that. I think what we also can agree on is he hasnt helped himself. This sort of piggybacks of what rebecca was saying, that over the course of this year, the Security Policies that event coming out from his security cabinet have been anemic to say the least. Theres been a lot of posturing, a lot of whats known as the soft policies which are sort of Poverty Alleviation that wont necessarily net result for a while. The absence of a National Guard is more of a shortterm fix, its basically meant the crisis has continued to worsen over the past 12 months. A few points i wanted to make and again i appreciate you being in the build off what rebecca put on the table. Is that the scene what scene from the perspective of drug Traffic Organization and criminal Networks Threat mexico i think the situation on octobeo all of us. Because basically this was the day in the city of 1 million, this is the place with a National Guard should have been present and they werent necessarily there in the numbers that they ought to have for what was essentially the capturing of at least one of el chapo signs, on the books as being part of the membership or the leadership of the cartel. As many folks in the audience im sure you know, they did capture the youngest of the signs, and then within hours you had about 375 Armored Vehicles just to send from the mountains, and just a firefight that was sort of similar to what you see in the movies unleashed hell. Within hours they had released him just to quoteunquote prevent further deaths. It was clear the government was outnumbered come out powered. If you show up with enough ammunition and have firepower you can been the government to you will. That was something the three much of a clear message to organize criminal networks. The other thing weve seen over the last 12 months, and amlo has done nothing to address up from a secret standpoint, is just the expansion of organized criminal networks. Since 2006, nowadays were talking, we started with six large cartels. Today we have about nine. We have 24 mediumsize went and upwards of i think 236 smaller organize criminal networks and that was a number that was just released a couple weeks ago. You really see an expansion of organized crime in parts of mexico. What you see with some of the ones at the top, the top players and medium players is and diversified their portfolio. These are transnational criminal organizations. So their delving more into fentanyl, and sort of a range of other activity including human trafficking, sex traffic and so it is way too move beyond just drugs. The other thing that is a harbinger, kind of a storm the horizon is just recently they also discovered that in fields of coca plantations in southern mexico. So this evolution of Drug Trafficking innovation from just trafficking or not actually producing cocaine in southern mexico is actually quite scary. The other point i wanted to make quickly is more about kind of the medium smaller organize criminal networks that really ought to be the focus of amlos secured he policies because the rates of extortion mexico, what they call, you know, they are just going through the roof in the last 12 months. They had come under the gun from the smaller organize criminal networks, some of which have connections to the larger ones, just demanding extortion fees. Thats really just wreaked havoc in the lives of many more mexicans and those were just involved in the drug trade. We dont see anything coming out of amlos administration to address the effects of the extortion on some of these populations which just recently had been doing quite well. Its been sort of triggered a wave of growing insecurity and violence in other places that are just recently again been safe. Im thinking here, for example, for many of us here in yes, its a haven for expats, right . The other thing we are seeing is the sorts of kind of more homegrown sort of domestic forms of organized criminal networks, its easier because they dont have to expend that much capital, much money. They can reach relatively quick sort of rewards and it kind of keeps them local. So i think some of the effects of organized crime are going to get worse in 2020. And to think what is so distressing to me as i would imagine of subpanel is were not saying amlo step up in terms of shaking up his security cabinet to address some of these concerns. Rather, what hes continuing to do is to blame previous president s, blame others. In one case he was demanding just a couple of weeks ago demanding that members of the press apologized to his security cabinet because he felt they had done a stellar job with the catch and release of guzman. Hes very much sticking to his life and i think that line of hubris is just to me is rather worrisome. Of course, yeah, please. Isis want to take on something you said, gladys, because i think this has been part of the discussion for quite a while. Theres been a lot of criticism about Security Policy for at least a decade and there was always this question about what a leftist Security Policy would look like. Because most of the criticisms came from the left of the political spectrum. I think amlo came up with this idea of attacking the social roots of the problem. You know, with a battery of social policy programs, with an increased budget for social policy. But i think its become quite evident at this point that social policy is not and cannot be a substitute for Security Policy. It might be a a complement in e long run, and a big if, there in between is, if the policies welldesigned and well implemented in which in the case of this administration is a big if, because we know there hasnt been a lot of evidence informing the design of the social policy programs. And not even like regular rules of operation, you know, for this money to be spent the way it is supposed to be spent. Like the quality of spending have not been put in place. So theres this sense on the one hand, that may be morally speaking or from the perspective of the left, its great that the president is concerned to attack the social roots of the problem, but the fact that youre spending money on youngsters in order for them not to become drug dealers. If the money is well spent youll see the result in five, ten years. But in the meantime that does nothing to address the massacres or the violence going on as we speak in the country. What youre saying about Lopez Obrador, you know, besides what you talk about is the lack of an actual policy to address the current violence that is taking place. I agree. I agree. Its interesting for those of you in the audience who dont know, this policy has been nicknamed hugs not bullets. I think its very catchy especially at the beginning but i think going in 12 months, a specialist in court when the last with all the massacres including the ones just yesterday where 22 people are dead, so to suggest this is very much of an immediate thing. For the policy to have worked it needed to be in a place about ten years ago. So the fact that its not being combined, but even for some of those, like, for example, just a few months ago amlo had been there promising building soccer fields and all sorts of Poverty Alleviation programs but there had been know to live in terms of actual funds for some of those projects. What were seeing is theres just a great deal of emphasis on the rhetoric and again to follow up on what you think, not the fault of what this means on paper. Thats been something thats brings into question the credibility of amlo being a quote leftist and actually think hes much more of a populist, if you want to think about as such in part because its all about kind of keeping the relationship. Thank you. And just to add to that is also kind of the issue of the rule of law and the lagging of the new justice reforms and the implantation of a new justice reforms that would were put ine in 2016. So very, very much uneven across all 32 states, and impunity still runs high. Citizens are seeing this and theyre saying, is security and crime . Is it a a major issue for the government . Because my perpetrators are still not being caught or anything being, helping to put the joker so thats just something to keep in mind is a. Definitely. It will be interesting to hear perhaps just later on, theres been some criticism that the Security Policy as such scenes that amlo is taking on this sort of managerial style of being a micromanager, like he was having it in control, centralized and his management. It doesnt necessarily work in practice. So of course at some point made a a later on we can talk about the designation of some of these organized criminal networks as terrorist organizations but i will sort of set that aside. Thats great actually. We can certainly think about that. Before we get into that, so his Approval Ratings have stayed pretty high threat to this firt year but it dropped about ten points during the surge of violence that gladys, you just discussed. Do you think this will force him to make changes to his security plan . And if that come into something that will . I would certainly hope just because, again the fact that it get below 60 was a telling. It hit 50 . Despite the fact that 50 in terms of the approval rating, that 72 of people think that animal has done good this past year, and they cite the way in which hes attacked issues of corruption as being the number one reason why he thinks hes done so well, right . This comes back to what several of the panels have put on the table which this been a lot of showmanship with issues of the plane, having the souder in half and so on. I think this might have bought him sometime before he felt much more to account. If anything i would suspect there might be a slight bounce back from 58 , back up to the 60 range as long as theres no major massacres happening that would deflect attention. I guess we will see. I would like to talk more about the u. S. Response to the security situation in mexico. This is both for gladys and rebecca, and tone and carlos if you would like to jump in. Tony. What can the u. S. Play a positive role in assisting mexico in mitigating violence, but then on the flipside sort of what is the conversation in the u. S. About designating the cartels as terrorist groups . Okay. Rebecca, you go ahead. I was going to say as far as possible steps, things the us can do, the number one thing is focus on the rule of law, working with mexico to help them strengthen the rule of law through, particularly through judicial reform. Thats something we hear a lot about, and when there was a call between amlo and trump after the events and the talked about finally doing something to slow the flow of illegal weapons or weapons from the United States into mexico, trump said yes, y, were going to do something about this. I dont think thats going to happen unfortunately. 70 of guns that are seats in mexico can be traced back to u. S. Mainly from southwest border states, primarily from texas. During the phone call they talked about technology, ways to use Better Technology to detect them. But as long as its so easy to get guns and sell them to strawmen, its going to remaia problem. Way doing mexican cartels as terrorist organizations, either very cynical view of this. Its about the campaign. We are running up on the president ial campaign youre so the timing is not a coincidence. I think its a way for trump to wrap up his base, villainize in mexico in the past has worked well for him using racially charged language helped a lot in the last election. And his tweets, he recently tweeted, im sure again many of you saw this, its time the u. S. Help mexico which were on the drug cartels and wipe them off the face of the earth. Its kind of reminiscent of the call he had with pena nieto when he said, youve got some bad hombres down there. Your military, apparently is not up to the tester i think about sending our military down. For one thing i think this will hurt our bilateral relationship. Another issue is a problem with the definition. State Department Definition of a foreign terrorist organization, they are motivated by politics, they are politically motivated. The organizations that hes talking about in mexico are motivated by profit. I think this could also hurt the mexican economy. There are already reports of violence in u. S. Newspapers. We read about what happened. Gladys, that very dramatic event that you so well described. Its going to deter investment, tourism. Just there is perhaps a Silver Lining on this. Im sure this is not something that President Trump fought through when he mention this idea of labeling mexican cartels as terrorist organizations. It could make a better case for asylumseekers from mexico. Perhaps thats a Silver Lining. It also i think underlines undermines the remain in mexico policy, that while asylumseekers are waiting for the cases to be heard in the u. S. , they are safely, they have to safely wait in mexico. [inaudible] yes, and it also undermines the Safe Third Country Agreement because the cartels have reached into central america. And finally if, maybe the other a probably hasnt thought about this, but this could make it easier to charge the middlemen, the straw purchases that are buying guns along the border because they would be aiding and assisting terrorist organizations. Yeah, and i think just to build on what rebecca west saying, i think there was a report saying that the massacre of the family members in sonoma, that all the spent cartridges and bullet had been purchased illegal in years and transferred to mexico. It gives you a sense of how widespread the magic emanations were happening down there. In terms of the terrorist designation, it seems right now there are only three that are on the chopping block. Theres a lot of details that have yet to be hammered out. Theres talk of william wealthy embargoing down later this week to work out what this does. Once that meeting happens well have a clear sense of what the Trump White House is intended to with this designation. Right now in mexico theres a great deal of concern about the fact this might be an affront to sovereignty, and sort of a a precursor for armed intervention. So Lopez Obrador just this morning was saying that u. S. Military is not welcome in mexico. I think were already a sense of how this is being perceived by amlos administration and bilby antagonistic. I think its interesting to think about how this designation of terrorist organization has been used in the past. For example, in the case of ireland with the ira, the irish republic army, was seen as an active solidarity. So for that time and that experience in other cases as well, its help diplomatic ties between countries. What i think what were sing in the mexican case is it isnt that. It has much more of a roller coaster sent to it. Rebecca, is it okay if i talk about the remain in mexico policy . Actually that was my next question, so great. Great. Theres been such dramatic changes to a silent and the asylum process in the u. S. That i would hope that it would help the asylumseekers, but the ways in which in pp was put in place, which is, referred to as remain in mexico has sort of undermining what potential it couldve been, for example, if you look at asylum law wouldve worked with the rollout in the last 12 months is basically precluding the fact that people could be, in fact, use some of this designation to help the asylumseekers. In part because of the third country role, right . You now have a sort of a backlog in terms of individuals at the border. Estimates right now there are about 50,000 people that are sort of hunkered down in six cities across the border just waiting for the asylum petition. In the last 12 months theyve only granted 11 asylum petitions. Petitions. It gives you a sense of, this is just completely undone, the asylum process in the United States and its standing in it mexico for humanitarian crisis. So in terms of what to do, again sort of these migrants who are located on the border are experiencing abuses both from Drug Trafficking organizations, sort of using them for kidnapping. The rates of kidnapping and some of his population is just astronomical. Most of which are happening in the six cities. They are also subject to abuse by members of Law Enforcement, security apparatuses as well as even individuals, sort of government officials were with Immigration Services in mexico. Theres no clear end to what this program is going to be. Undeniably, as more stacking up of individuals come up to the border zone, that is going to become a much greater humanitarian crisis. I think there is wordnet coming from some of these camps where these individuals are housed that the conditions of these camps are catastrophic, but its much better to be in syria then is to be in mexico. If anything, amlo should reach out to the International Community like the International Red cross, the United Nations for help, the United States, the monies that they are offering are doing nothing as far as addressing think a mentoring crisis. Thats a critical point in terms of think about where next. The last point i want, we havent talked about the Merida Initiative and i think we already have sort something in the book that if we were to dedicate to the Merida Initiative much more realistically speaking, we would be able to address issues of impunity and corruption on the ground. So that, we have the sorts of protocols already established in terms of bilateral relationships. Relationships. We just need the funds. Great. And all of you including gladys just how product issues of impurity, corruption and rule in mexico. There have been calls for side of a seasick like structure in mexico for the whole group. Is this feasible . What with this look like . How much of it exists . Let me jump into that and take a little step back i think its important to realize that something that tony mentioned in passing that i think its important for this discussion, for the rule of law question, which is theres this impression and i think its the right one, that Lopez Obrador had some out undermined Political Institutions here on the one hand, by reducing the budget. Also by appointing boils to his cause, to his Party Instead of people with expertise with the experience to help them. And with the cuts and all, but i think its important to realize that when we come to this threshold, the first year of Lopez Obrador and asked ourselves, he has been a president who has tried to build a strong presidency. We have this ironing or this dissonance of one year after we have a strong presidency, or stronger presidency buddy weaker government. One of the reasons of this have to do with institutions. And if you look at what has been the most important are the most efficient check that the Lopez Obrador presidency has faced during this year, it is not congress. It is not the Supreme Court. It is not the press. It is not civil society. It is not the socalled markets or the private sector. Its our relationship with the United States. Lopez obrador has this thing, you know, he talks a lot and some out he warns you way in advance of what hes going to do. Still theres room for surprise because i cant believe he did this, but he told us he is going to do it six months ago. But if theres one instance where that has not been the case is the relationship with the u. S. With trump openly threatened to close, what he was talking about it makes it more to addressthis new migration flow. To radically change his policy, even some of the stresses created to fight narcos to come down here so what im wondering about this comment, its not an open threat yet but the comment about labeling mexican drug cartels terrorist organizations. My impression is that trump is not going to go through with it. I think this iselectorally motivated but also politically motivated because hes done this before. He launches a threat and waits to see how mexico reacts and the reaction mexico has been very Public Opinion oriented. We are a sovereign country, the American Army is not welcome but i wonder to what extent the private meetings are going to take place next week to what extent is the us going to use this as a weapon to have mexico change, as it changes its migration policy regarding the southern border, changing Security Policy, particularly this idea that were not going to wage war against the cartels anymore and after what happened with in our own family and all these massacres, the idea of bullets sounds frankly grotesque so it is a propitious moment for the us to exert pressure on the opendoor government, to force it to change Security Policy the house will be in order for 40 years, cspan has been providing america unfiltered coverage of congress, the white house, the Supreme Court and Public Policy events from washington dc and around the country so you can make up your own mind created by cable in 1979 cspan is brought to you by your cable or satellite provider. Cspan yourunfiltered view of government. The commissioner of the federal housing administration, Brian Montgomery recently testified before the House Financial Services committee on housing, Community Development and insurance about federal housing policy and homeownership. Topics include accessibility of affordable housing, disparities in minority homeownership in the administrationshousing finance reform plan. The committee will come to order. And now i recognize myself. Im sorry, without objection. The chair is authorized to declare recess of the committee at any time. Without objection members, the full committee not on this subcommittee are authorized to participate in todays hearing
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