There seated but first hassan hassan, senior fellow at the Tahrir Institute for middle east policy is written an excellent analysis of the situation in syria and iraq as well as the dates within militant islam. Nibras kazimi who if youre not familiar with his monograph at the Hoover Institute in 2010 syria to jihadist eyes was the first analysis that isolate even preceding the Syrian Civil War which identified the groundwork for possible secretary jihadist conflict in syria. It was really a prescient analysis and he remains one of the best an analyst of the situation in syria and iraq that i know of. He walks kristen lord, president and ceo of irex whos had a long and distinguished career including acting president and Vice President of the trade institute for peace, and is a director of studies at the center for new american studies. I should add they both are members of our task force and finally, Katherine Zimmerman from the critical threat project at American Enterprise institute. Catherines article or monograph from the summer americas real enemy is an excellent read i commend to all of you on the threat of the jihadi who with. As armida Ripley Center kim barker from the New York Times who has tremendous experience reporting from afghanistan and pakistan and his ex about also come all of you on the taliban shuffle, strange days in afghanistan and pakistan. So with a limited over. Thanks very much running us all here today. Im excited to talk to these folks and it will open it up to questions from the audience. Can anybody hear me . If anybody has any problem hearing anybody here, just raise your hand and will try to adjust that. I just want to start to get right to it and ask everybody on the panel about what they think the strategy of various terrorist groups is going to be in the future. You have the conventional wisdom that isis that against the ropes, that alqaeda is completely irrelevant and i just want all of you to talk about this. We can start from my left, hassan. Thank you for having me here. I think the strategy Going Forward is a sting strategy that for a while. Both of them obviously, they dont see eye to eye on many things, but one thing the agree on is this idea that the Little Things matter in terms of militarism. This idea they call it, basically translated into Something Like the war of for example, one thing they both read books they both read, make argument that during the time of the crusaders in the war between the crusaders it wasnt really a major battles that we know, the iconic battles that changed the balance and enabled them to defeat the crusaders, it was actually a small battles that happen before that, the Little Things like with the bands of militants fighting here in kidnapping and doing all this kind of small stuff. So when he reached the point of that major battle, the enemies were already defeated and exhausted and weakened. This is an argument that isis has made privately and publicly. They say, for example, over the past, ten years ago when isis was active in iraq or its previous incarnation and iraq, the United States was or had the appetite to send thousands and thousands of american troops into iraq to defeat the surgeon 2007. But ten years later they dont have the same appetite. Whether the Obama Administration or the trump administration, they dont have the same appetite to send troops. They say this is vindication of their strategy. So they say thats working. Obviously thats wrong. Analysts would say the new strategy of b of by and, with ad through with both the Obama Administration and trump administration, which is basically relying on locals to do the fight for them while they provide both air support from the sky and logistical and Financial Support from the ground its actually better because they dont have just sent the troops. But they see that in terms of their strategy as a success, that they have done that much damage to american resolve in trying to they say this is what were going to do next. Thats why both alqaeda and isis, they disagree with each other because they think their strategy is working. They dont have to change their strategy, even though they have lost all their territory in the case of isis over the past three years, they see that thats progress. They will continue with this war of eroding their enemies Going Forward. Its important to keep it in perspective because we see the headlines very positive isis vanishes, and i dont think thats the healthy thing to have in mind, the mindset. I think its important to think of their strategy as what i said the Little Things that matter and as long as they have the will to fight as the former spokesperson said, as long as and the will to fight i think it will continue to have that threat, continue to be that threat. Nibras maybe could build on that idea that come to doubt whether you think Isis Innovations are more the sort of stasis, stay home, encourage more, outdoor of you are, homegrown terrorist other countries versus maybe try to go to another country. Well, lets begin with this idea why they target the west. It is not their primary ambition. They are thinking on targeting that they will make the costs so high for the west to the point where they are left alone. In their thinking, both alqaeda and the Islamic State, is that they want to neutralize the situation whereby the west are western countries, western powers intervene in the region on behalf of the regional allies. So thats one thing that they set to the side. If we presume that there is a creature called a jihadist strategist, and we try to think to the problems as they do, i feel that there is a difference between alqaeda and those are calories come so we dont get into the whole isis, isil, i guess, aqis, theres even a couple more. They have a certain stock in a certain approach and the big question now, what happens next . Are they going to receipt or are they going to find a little margin where they can lick their wounds and try to remain relevant, or, which i think to be the correct for the more accurate way of understanding them, theyre going to keep trying to go big. Theyre not going to regress into margins and what is meant by margins is that places like chechnya are libya or an argument can be made for yemen, theyre still going to go big because the threshold of their brand after trying to attempt a caliphate in syria and iraq. These are potent symbols of trying to recapture that glory in those lands. Going back to the village after seeing the shimmering lights of the city is not how they think. The question becomes okay, what can they do, or at least what remains for them to do, how much of the fight remains in iraq and syria . And to the other options . Other options could be egypt, turkey or saudi. I think at least the transistor been telling us that they intend to go to saudi the zarqawis. Whether they have the capacity or theres opportunity there thats a big question, but see, this is also part of their stuff. When they went to iraq in 2002 and then had the gall to try to attempt to launch a jihadist in 2003, it took, the reality, demographics, the might of the u. S. Army, a lot of things, the morale of the jihadist after the defeat in afghanistan, a lot of things working against mighty wawent ahead to come he saw something that others did not see. From their point of view they were successful. So when you look at places like egypt, turkey or saudi arabia we have to be mindful that maybe we dont see what they see. And their style suggests they will try to keep going big. So to follow up on that, katherine, if you could talk about his alqaeda dead . Whats happening with alqaeda as isis ascribing all the headlines . Well, great question. I focus on alqaeda and i just wrote a report that argued against distinction between alqaeda and the Islamic State as a threat. Because they are both from the same ideological movement, and our focus in one group or another has allowed the other side to actually continue to strengthen. And so while we have been focused on defeating isis inside rocket and mosul, alqaeda itself the strength of notches inside of syria but it is resurgent inside afghanistan, much stronger and human. It control of territory in some all you get its expanded operations inside of mali and looking to capitalize on the libyan civil war. So what were looking at is the United States and the west have focus on the threats of the Islamic State which is significant and certainly the dog that is barking, but in the meantime alqaeda has gone below the radar. It has issued a taxis major western targets. Its conducted Regional Attacks but it has avoided drawing the policy attention back. What it is doing is pursuing its primary objective, it is not seeking to kill americans as the number one objective. Thats what we see my alqaeda and the movement is focused on the most majority world. Having given up on those terrorist attacks those bomb makers that the al qaeda end yemens signature lawmakers we should expect to see something come from al qaeda in the next five or 10 years so when to turn the attention back on the United States . Our counterterrorism strategy we have focused on the terrorist but those that are proving to be attacking two of the United States although with that Jihadi Movement are focused on the people for which they are operating. So we could win the war by killing isis or al qaeda terrace but butted preventing them from getting strength get this condition allows them to get that for a variety of different reasons. How does this play into the jihadists strategy . As many people know there is a boom across many parts of the world and the middle east where terrorist groups are gaining ground. By people a head organizations that middleaged ladies like myself they think the word bully has a negative connotation. [laughter] but the key is certainly this is a potential threat people are not engage sure do not have opportunity and to have a purpose in their lives and it will compound that existing many times over with that demographic it is also a potential opportunity were not fighting the same people we were on 9 11. Many of those are in preschool or grade school those future recruits are still very young. This is an enormous opportunity. If people could positively transform their nation but i am afraid there is too little attention paid to move this issue as we were talking about before the session how many if we want to a transformer that strategic landscape with it is far from the newly part of the solution but to dominate that discussion and that is changing. So what should that be doing as specifically as possible . It is so easy to point out problems so when you Start Talking about that . And i should add that what is happening with the state department right now the military focus or with a soft power. Number one paid attention. I am an unusual person to be looking at the organization. I was floored to find out the resources goes to young people over the age of 10. Im just talking about diplomacy but most of the money is going towards Young Children and there are huge if images in terms of survival rates and children to enter Primary School and we should be very proud but to talk about count with those conditions that continue to see them many more of the resources to make sure they have a Successful Transition to adulthood in an immediate secondary School Education getting people a job doesnt make them a terrorist is part of that Holistic Community to give them something in their lives that they feel there is no lack of the future that makes them susceptible to a friend or neighbor who comes to them to offer that opportunity to do something with their lives. This is where we have a slight disagreement. I do appreciate the opportunities that come from this but to be much more targeted it should include the education and just not to provide that opportunity to a group of people but to ensure a future is something to look at. The idea us that we go need to replicate and injured people are living their life as they see fit many grievances are driven by the governments lack of interest and that allocation and to divert to the of military. And to pursue a program it isnt actually hitting those a we dont need to rehash that debate but those that allow those groups to move in with the coming in with a teacher because the Community Ask for a teacher but the government never responded so the teacher comes in to provide that ideology alongside their lesson which is a major problem. I hate to disappoint the Little Things we disagree. I hate to even say that because that is such a buzz word so the centerpiece is of terrorists themselves and then with the more targeted intervention is that the of further of way you get the neck goes down to that specific little bullseye that was the point that was trying to make. Talk about this idea and also so what he thing comes after . I will go even further with the disagreement a conversation about root causes with these priorities have young people have different demographics young people think there is a war going on as iran extend its reach with syria and iraq and what do they do about it . Actually for these macros strategies that it would not go in a big way. That scale is not clear and what we do disagree is and with isis that is very symbolic. Wedded that isnt politically correct that would provoke a response and i was suggested there was a window of time to get turkey or saudi to go in there in a place like this. So to prevent that narrative of a Syrian Regime this is the possibility Going Forward for them to put together any programs this also marks policy for the last few days. I actually share the sentiment of the view of the jihadist of but that is the unwinnable war even though said to have the capacity it will take some time and transform that could be contained some years and to look at the gravity of the problem in the region lit those massive resources and in the beginning u. S. Officials when they looked at their leaders live those citizens to waned isis the coz of those ideas that came to galvanize. That was true and they continue to say that this idea crumbles and i think that is true is in the first year or the second year but it is too late and how that forms into something that has become an a transnational. And then to be more favorable to isis. But it does want something in return which is a transnational and to go back to the idea of a lot of people have the idea when isis goes down they say forget about al qaeda. And then emanating from two directions for girl with 2 trillion to mobilize a of those resources and then isis is competing with that Global Leadership and that is what defines them the next few years. Then it is the third wave. And trying not to provoke and then to put that together no matter what. And to go against what they think is right and then to do something in defeat to be more in touch with that population end then to be in sync with that popular mindset. Now we will open into the audience. Keep your questions simple as possible. I have a question. Pick one. Now how they feel toward the Isis Coalition . Really have a few minutes woody doing to counter isis . Where they are now . But we tend to be a more rational but there seems to be a popular base before it came over and before they welcomed isis but now people understand and there is a bigger point because more sunni than ever so they will be more active next time. However i dont think there is an alternative because it dont have that counterterrorism policy so in syria for example, those that will fight isis. Were those that rose up against and with that disconnect and then they will insure. So with that humanitarian Relief Organization . To simply call attention and the ngo or having a terrible time that turkey is adjusting those international ngo. The way they fought in mosul and that style as opposed to evacuating a city so that was an incredible price. But the way they chose to fight they did not put all of their resources and. To bloody the iraqi forces is more about a statement to make this hard for you why they are fighting these and how leadership is making those decisions. With big gaps of the narrative how they think of how that overlaps and without any in the standing of what theyre doing. And what theyre going to look like. Can you identify the of Muslim Country that has access to counteract violent extremist . At a north anybody is the success of pointing to one that would have tremendous cascading effect is to be judged that started the arab spring touche successfully transition with the cooperation with the country that has enormous potential. From what they did yesterday with the success of to be shut up. They and many of those other tactics. It has been very hard for the u. S. So it is important so if you look at at propaganda so what they see happening and most likely in my opinion to carry on these tax. How we go about to address these issues with americans. Perhaps my colleagues would like to way and if it is just a terrible tragedy not just terrorist groups to put our troops and an awful position there is very little we could do with that ferocity of the groups themselves and to let those change as much as we would like. Anybody have the answers answers . Focusing on terrorist groups to be outside of of support it has allowed to expand we dont have robust programs in place and they have been working on that. But if you look at the conflict the have not been to schools for five years. But without president ial term in this multi generational. Youre talking about children and you. And added say relatively small number of those of our more drawn to that. I think there is a lot of confusion with the crisis with catarrh and with the saudis want to know what is the saudis role . Are they cutting down on Muslim Charity is in qatar and to approve the text book . Can you comment . And how do they Work Together . And in that vision and with their philosophies. And to talk about those radical changes. And how do they overstand radical changes . And that gives that opportunity. But clearly and then to succeed in saudi arabia. But there is still a bit question mark so when those countries of the middle east so to be as dramatic that this parochial fight would cause is marginal and to meet that says something about the capacity. The state Department New coordinator for counterterrorism. Thank you. [applause] [inaudible conversations] [inaudible conversations] cspan, where history unfold to daily. In 1979 cspan was created as a Public Service by americas cabletelevision companies and is brought to you today by your cable or satellite provider. Today the Senate Judiciary Committee Held a confirmation link to fill the seat vacated by Supreme Court justice neil gorsuch. President trump nominated allison eid to serve on the United States tenth Circuit Court of appeals. This hearing is almost three hours. [inaudible conversations]
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