Transcripts For CSPAN2 Key Capitol Hill Hearings 20240622

Scenes and below the spotlight, our governments are working together very well on a number of things. Things. How do we improve our borders . How do we integrate our Economic Resources . Those kinds of things are going to adhere to the benefits of the citizens in both countries, i i dont think we have a handsoff relationship. I think it would be well if our congress or senate would couldnt firm Roberto Jacobs as our basset or as well as the Mexican Government appointed an ambassador to the United States. Its an important position in both countries and it needs to be there, they need to be on the ground, hands on. I think roberta would do a terrific job represented the United States and understanding the relationship very well. Those would be my comments. Thank you. Is peter still there . Yeah. What would be the positive scenario . And how what i envision it . I believe that many of the reforms on paper, are things that mexico needs. The problem, and im not one of those people who believes that opening up the Energy Sector was a bad idea come thats not it at all, i think many people are supportive of the reforms but are very fearful of the implementation and what comes in the secondary legislation after the constitutional reforms are approved. Thats where you see the reforms being undermined at the level of implementation and at the level of the secondary legislation. I could could give you many examples of this. In order to avoid the reformist impulse from dying out, what would the government have to do . Make sure that the reforms are not diluted by secondary legislation, and and make sure that the implementation is pristine, transparent, and accountable. That would require the Mexican Government to do something it is very bad at, which is regulating. That is the reason mexicans distrust the reforms, they distrust Energy Reform not necessarily because its open up the sector to private investors, but because we see what opening up sectors to private investors has done in the past with poor regulations. It has entailed a math massive transfer of wealth to private entities, as was the case with the banks. So a positive scenario would entail a Mexican Government actually regulated and implemented reform very well, why do i give it that such a low percentage in my prospects for that future . Because historically we have not done this well, at all. More conservative analysts has said you dont get good regulation on energy, its going to be the governments once again. So for Energy Reform to be succeed and has to be regulated, pristine, transparent and truly competitive. Not competitive. Not just a way of creating yet another way of rent seeking for the Newest Company which they have just created which is in the oil and gas. What what i like it to be . I would like it to be like australia, in terms of competition policy, acrosstheboard, dismantle monopolies. I think if there is a 3 growth in gdp, if i were president that would be my first move. Second issue, you have to push forward political reform that actually empower citizens and gives them effective mac and ms. Am sub representation because the ones they have today is absolutely terrible. I would would like mexico to be like canada, in terms of the representational nature of its democracy, or like chile in terms of its oral trial system and its rule of law system. Youre not going to get an mexican co when you have oral trials, i am grateful for the administration for transporting to oral trials but if you dont transform the police youre going to have trials with people have been unfairly arrested and tortured when the case begins. So i would like mexico to be more like the u. S. In terms of the decriminalization of marijuana, because we are fighting a war over substances that are increasingly being legalized in their main market, which is here. So a positive scenario would entail movement in those areas and the supervision and implementation of reforms in the spirit in which they were conceived, and in its foundational aspect was the right one. Which is we need to move this country. Question about newspaper shedding and journalism . Why are they doing that . Because they are being pressured by the government to do so. Because after the casablanca and the firing, the pressure from latinos increased, because there is a lot of cash flowing through the system given our system of Public Financing for parties and a lot of that cash is being used too by the media. Every money month there is money going to the newspapers. What you have seen a mexico sense it was taken off the air as the virtual silence of many issues that are not being covered in the Mainstream Press and are not covered on the radio. You see people, valiant people people who are reinforced to leave because they did the federal reporting on the police killings, and she was told to take her peace with her and leave. So she managed to put it on the air, not even on the air, with the support of univision and with the support of a magazine. So whats happening for two Investigative Journalism . Its been demoralized, destroyed, dismantled, in a context which the powers that at b want more reporters tracking down whether or not the casablanca of the first lady is going to be sold or not and she promised. Recently, u. S. Journalist with all the support of one all the major u. S. Outlets, interviews me for a casablanca and says i sent one of my investigative people to the public registry to see if indeed the house of the first lady promised to sell had been sold. Plus she was standing in line she got a call from the head of the office of communications of the presidency saying she didnt have the credentials to be doing Investigative Journalism in mexico because her cv had not been formally presented. So in this u. S. Journalist call to come play about harassment, she is is told all know it was just a coincidence and we called your reporter today. While she happened to be in mind getting getting the simper nation on the casablanca. This news journalist said to me, very uncomfortable coincidence and she is told by the office of communications of the pres. , you cant be out there doing Investigative Journalism on euro, everything that relates to the constable like that and the president goes through us. You go thrust first. So thats what youre saying, and echoes to the third question which is i would urge everyone in this room to read article 19s report 19s report on the state of journalism in mexico. What does that report reveal . The data is all there, all the cases are there, every 26 hours a journalist in mexico is threatened or killed. Why have you seen a spike . Because of the confluence of corruption, organized crime, drug trafficking, and the way in which these three interact. 48 of the aggressions against journalist are created by police. They say theyre dying because theyre covering organized traffic and crime but this reporter the threats were coming from the governor, they were coming from organized crime although one could say that yes they were. So its becoming increasingly difficult to be a journalist in mexico. Ambassador jones says there is competitive media, well really . When theres an 85 market share and if you only got your political information from open television in mexico, you would think that you were living in in a parallel country because you would never hear about important things, you would not even know that these things would have occurred. Where maybe they know the information through twitter or the rest of social medium or independent journalists were out there risking their lives and political cartoonists who are looking how they can leave the country. How do we empower communities . I absolutely agree, thats where the energy has to be focused, thats where i intend to focus my energies in the next ten years. Which is teaching citizenship, and ways of participation at the local level. The major transition that needs to occur, that would spike back, that would would be a catalyst for political participation at the local level would be of local governments and state governments were forced to collect taxes. Which which they do not do now. They have no incentive to be responsive to their citizens, when that changes, thats why im always asked, and peter went i think mexico will change . It change . It will be because of me, or others that are harsh in their criticism, it will will be when the country runs out of oil. Because thats what keeps the whole machinery going. I hope that happens soon, its a very political lee incorrect to say so but it would be the best thing that could possibly happen to mexico because it would force the government to collect taxes. Government that collect taxes and citizens that are forced to pay them, and i pay mind religiously because i always say im in buying the right to come play i am buying the right to be harsh and i have that right. Is this on cspan . Champus is a disgrace, Green Party Governor but please remember this is a green party that has been expelled on a coalition of green parties because it supports the death penalty, it supports the life of both the bulls and circus animals, it does not support the life of humans. This is a party that accrued 600 million pesos in fines for electoral mix contact. It is a party that three days ago it was revealed that the governors mother is receiving millions of pesos of payments for being nominally the head of the government Childrens Fund for the state. The government governor is telegenic he married and the actress he is following a Marketing Strategy and i do believe that electoral fraud was committed and i do believe that the party overspent the legal limits for its electoral activities and that it will never be sanctioned because what happened is that with the reconcentration and elimination of the state electoral, what you have now is a concentrated National Electoral authority that doesnt know whats going on at the level of the state, in terms of electoral regularities. Even even if it wanted to intervene, all of these disputes and up which time and again with the green card he is find would intervene to eliminate the fine. So what did the green party and our greatness election, 25 of the green partys green parties vote in this election came from chapels, how you went to mexico in mexico as you break the electoral law, time and again, it doesnt it doesnt matter you accrue millions of pesos and crying, some of the fines are removed by electoral authorities who are in your favor and the others you pay with with the Public Financing you get in your first year, or you take out a loan and you pay them. The thing is, you win. Even if you do so cheating. Even if you do have to pay the fine, so the incentive to break the law for every party, now are huge pew and the green party has shown that you can do this and you wont lose your registration. So what what you have seen and chop is going to be the roadmap for the pri and the green party in the 2018 president ial election. I want to thank all of you for calming, amb. Jones and dr. Dressler, i think this is been a terrific session. We covered a lot of ground, a lot of issues, well be following what happens and the different scenarios and will hope for the optimistic one. Weve outlined a good remark and hopefully that will be pursued, i think we should come back in six months and see how far were getting on that road. So. So thank you very much for calming. [applause]. For the past seven weeks a series of wildfires have sprung up in 15 counties in california. According to the Business Insider these wildfires have tried more than 250 mi. 2 of california landscape which is already suffering from the worst drought in the last 1200 years. In may, the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee Held a hearing on wildfire management with the chief of the u. S. For service, well have that for you tomorrow afternoon at four eastern on cspan. This weekend on the cspan network, politics, books in american history. Saturday and night at eight eastern on cspan, congressional profiles with four congressional members, sunday night at nine with elections coming in october well show you a debate among the four National Party leaders in canada. On on cspan2 on saturday night at ten eastern on big tv afterwards, through the use of technology you can reign in the power the federal government. Sunday evening at seven, seven souther talks about the city and nagasaki japan the morning it was bombed in 1945 to today. On cspan three we commemorate the 70th anniversary of hiroshima nokia sakae japan and the end of the war in the pacific. Our Program Start saturday morning at ten. Later well visit the American University the hiroshima nagasaki museum. And sunday morning at ten our coverage continues with the 2000 documentary on the making of the atomic bomb. Later, interviews with two bomb survivors. Get arc. Get our can plead schedule at cspan. Org. On the next washington journal, your phone calls and journals of the fox news and president ial candidates debate. After that time file of the u. S. Census bureau and the Washington Post discuss voter turnout and demographics of the voters since the 1970s. All on washington journal, live journal, live at 7 00 a. M. Eastern on cspan. Welcome to the table, tom manger he is the president of the major piece association, and chief of the Montgomery County Police Department in maryland. Thank you. Thank you for being with us. I want to talk about real spike of crime around the country and big cities, a lot of variables involved. We started talking amongst ourselves amongst the chiefs in the country, we were all noticing the spike in homicides, spiking shootings, and so we decided to get together. We got to together on monday, what we found was not only were we all seen a spike in violent crime, but we were seeing commonalities among that. Things like the impact of synthetic drugs, were seen at shooting scenes, tremendous large number of shell casings, it wasnt just one or two shots and dozens and some of these things. We saw the perpetrators of these homicides, all seem to have lengthy criminal records and youre asking yourself, why is this person out in the first place . Why were they still in jail . Were seeing commonalities among the suspects in these cases and so many didnt finish high school, some didnt have any job skills, some were violent offenders who had served jail time but were now back on out on the street. The good news, for us or something that we could use from this meeting, is when you look at all these commonalities it gave us some direction about how we can start trying to address some of these issues. Montgomery county is just outside washington d. C. , during the riots at baltimore, and the drugstores that were looted, there is a real uptick uptick in crime in the greater baltimore area, they see that its in connection with some of these uptick in use of drugs. In working with the commissioner we are looking at all the drugstores that were looted and theres tens of thousands of doses of narcotics that are on the street. Its almost like theres a drug war going on in the city where rival gangs, from distributors, illegal drug distributors are fighting each other to get their share of the market. This has resulted for the city, in the uptick in homicides since the on rest over freddie gray. What about synthetic drugs . First of all what are they and why have they become such a prevalent problem. I think they have, and im not an expert on synthetic drugs but what we know is these are drugs that are manufactured that are having a real dangers impact on people to take them. What we are finding, in the old days when people would take pcp, and confront somebody who is high on pcp they had superhuman strengths, were seeing were seen the same kinds of things with people who are taking these and that. They are very violent, theres been a few cases in this region, a people dying in Police Custody as a direct result of the use of these synthetic drugs. One of the issues we are dealing with is the legislator are playing catchup to try to make sure all of these ingredients that are being used for these synthetic drugs are actually illegal. Because synthetic marijuana, and flavonoids that people are manufacturing, was they make a certain recipe illegal, then they will change one ingredient so all of a sudden we have a more difficult time in Law Enforcement, charging someone because they changed and angry the aunt that hadnt been made illegal. So legislators around the country or try to play catchup to stay ahead of these synthetic drugs. If you are are a Police Officer or part of the police you can give us a call on this line 2,027,488,000. Tom major is joining us and i also want to talk about race relations. Ferguson, cleveland, Baltimore Baltimore how are Police Chiefs dealing with the. It has had a tremendous impact, and of course the anniversary Michael Brown shooting is just a day or two away, so we have been dealing with this and the impact of ferguson for a year now. I really started and number of National Conversations and Police Chiefs and him talked about force and deadly force, and the militarization of police and the diversity of a Police Department doesnt reflect the diversity of the community we are serving. What is the relationship between the Police Department and the community . I think one of the things that many chiefs realize is that we have seen dramatic reductions in crime over the last ten years or so, everybody is happy about the fact there is less crime than there was ten or 20 years ago. But what were the Police Strategies or tactics that were used to achieve those reductions in crime and what impact did have on the community . I think chiefs are looking at this now and saying okay we understand where successful, and believe me it wasnt just police there was a number of factors that led to the reduction in crime, lawenforcement has some role in that but you dont take credit for all the crime reductions because if you did that youd have to take credit for all the increase in crime. I think you need to look at, do please tactics have a negative impact on our relationship with the community . Especially when you look at areas, and this is the same for every police chief across the country, they can tell you where crime occurs in their jurisdiction, invariably its where theres higher levels of poverty. You look at the Graduation Rates in particular areas of a jurisdiction and where thats lois, thats where you see the crime. You see more young kids who dont have good, healthy parental influence in their life, if you track those kind of things, education, poverty levels, job skills those sort of things, you can predict exactly where crimes are can predict exactly where crimes are going to occur in a particular jurisdiction. A quick followup, when you speak your officers on this issue, what to tell tell them . I tell them its our responsibility to ensure we have a Good Relationship with the public. We have to earn their trust and keep their trust. You have have to do that every day, i tell my cops that we are only as good as our last and we can go months without having any controversial incidents, and then you have one bad incident that goes viral and being shown on the news every single night. All of the sudden the Police Department is on the offensive, the problem is folks seem to take the police with a very broad brush. There have been some absolutely criminal acts by Police Officers that have occurred in the past year and that have been on video, that have have been shown over and over, and every single Police Officer every Police Department, has been impacted by that particular incident. Really it represents such a small percentage, a minute percentage of contacts the police have what the public every day. We have a Million People in Montgomery County and can document the 911 calls we can document a half a million contacts. Tell my cops youve go work at this every day. Host tom manger began his career in fairfax county, virginia. Moved up to chief of police in fairfax county. Now has the title in Montgomery County. Hes the head of the major cities association. Hes heading to chicago for another conference. Jeff in hawaii, good morning. To thank both of you. Is there Something Else parents can do to help the police in their efforts to save the young minds and the future of this country . Perhaps respecting the feelings with the children. Before creating trouble teens which experiment with drugs . Guest there is nothing more influential in a Young Persons life than parents. As a father of two, oftentimes i think my kids are not listening to a word i say. They are. Young adults will tell you the biggest influence in their life was their parents. Having to work at teaching the kid good values, teaching the value of education. All those things are important in a Young Persons life. One of the best things we have highis put officers in schools. We have a School Resource officer in every high school in Montgomery County. It is not because the schools ar dgero the fact is the relationships are building with these young people and is just tremendous and so i think the Police Department has a responsibility to reach out to young people but i also think that kids the biggest influence in her life are the parents of the parents have to take their responsibilities seriously and talk about drugs, talk about you know the biggest risk in any kids life is when they get behind the wheel of a car and having those conversations about not driving with your friends and doing the things that are the tough decisions that kids have to abide by is whats going to keep your kids safe ultimately they are going to realize that was for their own good. It may take a few years but they will realize a oneday. Host what is the size of your department wants to budget . Guest my budget is around 280 million he and i have between 181900 employees. Host from indiana poll is next, a Police Officer. Tell us a little bit about yourself all and then go ahead with your question for tom manger. Caller i spent 35 years on the force. I was born and raised on the southside of chicago and i found over the last 35 years that there has been a profound disrespect in the black community for authority, for women and for life itself and listen i have done all the Community Activist stuff. Ive been a coach. I worked in the schools. I have done all those things. I have fed the homeless and we have done all that stuff and its just not working. These kids are being taught to disrespect police. They disrespect authority altogether. I retired last year and what may be retire was cutting my grass in the southside of chicago. Everybody on my block lima policeman. A kid came up while i was cutting my grass, put a gun to my head and stole my lawnmower. Can you believe this . They know i am a policeman to the kid had enough gall to do this and im just so disgusted. I give up, it moved out of the city of chicago, im done with it. The disrespect is just profound and thats all i have to say. Guest well they certainly understand your frustration with what occurred and ive got to tell you i have been a cop for 38 years in rings are profoundly different today than they were when i started back in the mid70s. But i will tell you if we cant give up. The police have a tremendously Important Role in the community and the can talk about Community Policing all day long and it means 100 Different Things 100 different people but the fact is its about the Community Understanding of the world that the police have the community does need to understand what we do and why we do these things. I think that does help that the police also have to understand that when you are policing a community that has a very high crime rate, there are still good people that live in that community and so its important for us to do our job and to do our job lawfully, to do her job effectively but understand there are still good people and in fact one of the biggest things i think that the big cities are grappling with is the lack of quad bridge and do we get from some neighborhoods where they really need this the most, we have the highest number of homicides and investigators go there and people who have information wont come forward because they dont trust the police or they dont like the police and all that does is result in a low clearance rate and more violence because we dont have that corporation. Its interesting the caller talked about the fact that he gave up three of i will tell you have almost 1300 cops that have not given up and they understand that they have to continue to do their job and there are hundreds of thousands of cops like that all over the country. Lets go have you seen the Netflix Series orange is the new black . Guest i have not seen that. I dont get a chance to watch much tv. Host testified about the criminal Justice System and i want to play a portion of what she told members of the senate panel earlier this week and get your thoughts. When i reflect on the punishment for my crime is certainly cannot protested when i think about the harshness with which poor people and disproportionately poor people of color are treated in this country. Its hard however to believe that there is a lot of social benefit to the community drawn from my incarceration. It prevented no new crimes. Particularly when we consider the punishment that we have meted out for drug offenses we have to reflect on the enactment of these drug sentencing laws generally in the mid80s. At that time i think of those laws were intended to curb Substance Abuse and addiction and some of the crimes that grow out of Substance Abuse and addiction. Today, many decades after we passed those laws we put millions and millions of americans in prison and saddle them with felony convictions and today the legal marcotte x. Are cheaper. They there are more potent and they are more easily available and we put mandatory sentencing laws on the books in a cursor to all those people. I think we can only go the conclusion that in terms of curbing Substance Abuse and addiction but those laws are a failure and locking people up for drug offenses particularly lowlevel nonviolent drug offenses is a huge waste of time and money. Host Pieper Kerman who is the author of the new book orange is the new black, let me focus on one aspect of that. What can be done if anything . The president is talking about this and Congressional Democrats and republicans save time changed in the system with the three strikes and youre out. Guest we talk about smart policing. We need to have smart sentencing reform as well. I dont think you will find a police chief in this country that would say locking up person for possession of marijuana are some lowlevel drug offense needs to have any incarceration, perhaps any at all. We have been doing that for years. This notion that there are millions of people in jail for lowlevel drug offenses is just not accurate. Yes back in the 80s the sentencing guidelines were changed but i disagree with one issue that she said. She said it was done to curb Substance Abuse and addiction. It was done to curb the Violence Associated with those drugs that were being sold and those gangs that were proliferating because of how much money they could make being in the drug business so was really to curb the violence, not necessarily to curb Substance Abuse and addiction. Think what we have all learned now is that someone who has Substance Abuse or an addiction needs treatment, not necessarily jail but i would also say this. We have got to be smart about this. This notion that just because someone was convicted of a drug offense makes him a nonviolent offender, lets look at the entire persons record. We just have a homicide a couple of days ago in Montgomery County by an individual who was convicted of two major narcotics distribution offenses in 2012. He was sentenced to eight years. Less than three years later he is out and he has been arrested twice in the last several months , ones once with a gun, with drugs and a gun and then he killed his wife the other day and shot himself. The Parole Commission said how could we have protected this . Use of nonviolent offender. He has had violence conviction since 1992 so when i talk, when we talk about sentencing reform you wont get a new argument from Law Enforcement. We understand there are sometimes better ways to handle the break below whether his Substance Abuse or Mental Illness. Sending folks to jail is not the answer. Treatment is the answer for those folks that there are individuals that the community is safer when theyre behind bars in this individual the committed a homicide in montgomery counties should have been behind bars. Host tom manger who is the chief of police for montgomery maryland and you can get more information on line at manger city chief. Com. Caller good morning. He knows that im a member of this county and i want to disagree with him on Something Real quick and make a real quick point. He says that the drug sentencing laws were for violence. We are to have laws on the books that address violence and severe violence and doing illegal things and so i disagree with him there because those were political positions and we know that. When it comes to Montgomery County and the Police Action here i have seen more policeman riding around in cars looking at taxpayers gas money and when they do stops its 45 police cars like they want to put on display but you dont see the policeman walking in the street. Montgomery county is an affluent neighborhoods of there should be no fear of the policeman getting out of the car and walking and talking and interacting with kids. I see an abundance of areas being targeted that our minority and i would say Aggressive Police force, aggressive policing and i see other neighborhoods where you dont see that type of action. These people commit crimes just as much as anybody else and if you go through the books and look at the police stops and if you have a way of tracking the race i guarantee you Montgomery County you will see more black citizens stopped them white. Host we will give the chief of chance to respond. Thank you for your call. Guest listen im out in the community all the time. I know that there are folks who would agree with the caller on a lot of the points that he made. I will say this, but we dont have a onesizefitsall in terms of police service. We have very urban areas. We do have folks, cops on foot and bikes. We also do understand where the crime is occurring. If we know theres an area that has high calls for service, has higher crime rates yes we have more Police Officers there. Its just simple to put cops were they need to be. We just began a Pilot Program program and is a matter of fact i dont have it on now but i have been wearing one for about the last six weeks or so and i will tell you i think they are of great value. They are not the panacea that everybody thinks they are going to be but they are a great value they have limitations as well. I can tell you that in the state of maryland requires i notify somebody that they are being video and audio recorded when i have my camera running and its a real conversation stopper sometimes. Its tough to have a normal interaction with someone when a deputy told him they are being recorded. On the one in hand i understand the value and part of when we talk about some of the impacts of ferguson, people want their Police Officers to be accountable. They want transparency. They want to know for the cops are doing what they are supposed to do. Like i said 99. 9 of the time i cops are doing exactly what they should the way they should do it in cameras will confirm that for the public and for anybody else whos interested. Host do they go on automatically . Out of a work . Guest you have to turn them on and we are just in a Pilot Program right now. We have just begun. I have 80 to 100 officers that are wearing the cameras right now and the officers are allowed to turn them off under certain circumstances when they are going into the locker room or going to the bathroom. If you and i are Police Officers and we are in the back of the station talking about, talking about her kids and baseball, you dont have to have a camera on but if you have any interaction with the public, if you are doing any Law Enforcement activity to camera should be on. Host davis joining us, los angeles. Good morning. Welcome to the program create. Caller good morning. As i sit and listen to the police chief, he reminds me of every hammer needs a nail and despite the fact that what we have is a complete system failure in the judicial system from the police to the mass incarceration. It is amazing to me that when you engage in this degree of denial of a failed system that constantly justifies itself by perpetuating fear as opposed to come usm the question about what is his budget. You have all of these pretty much maledominated professions like the police and the military. They go against most of our economics here as far as tax dollars are concerns that there is no funding or minimum or little funding for schools and social programs, Educational Programs because all the boys get their toys. Those who your response . Guest well listen in most jurisdictions and certainly in mine education is the number one priority in terms of funding. As i said i have a budget of 280 million, probably the Largest Agency within county government. The School Systems budget is so really the emphasis is on education as it should be. This notion that the entire criminal Justice System is failing i dont agree with that but what i do agree with is the entire criminal Justice System needs a real study to see where it can be improved. The last time we had a commission that looked at the criminal Justice System and National Commission was in 1965. 1965 created long overdue to have another Crime Commission to look at the entire criminal Justice System to really look at the issues that this caller talks about. Lets see where the system is failing. Lets see where the system needs to be improved. Right now since ferguson and with the other incidents that have occurred around the country everybody is focused on the police and everybody is criticizing the police every time something happens. If the oh my god the police are out of control and the fact is police do need to be looked at. There needs to be accountability. We need to look at things like who is investigating Police Involved shootings into his room looking at the shootings and their police being held accountable . I think good things are happening on those fronts but i do agree that the entire criminal Justice System needs to be looked at, studied in a conference of manner to see where we can improve things for the good of this country. I grew up in Baltimore City and i saw a lot of what i believe were injustices in the world and i actually started off wanting to be a journalist. I quickly found out that wasnt for me. I decided that i wanted to be a social worker and then i started taking some chronology classes and quickly ruined her thoughts being a Police Officer would be the way could help the community the best. Its been a very challenging profession that after 38 years are still in try coming to work and invigorated by the challenges that face the police today. Host our guest is up on the present of the manger city chief of Police Michael is next. If theres a morning to you. Good morning mike. Caller good morning. I would like to ask a question. The major cities there is disparity in their crime rates and theyre all democratically held. Those laws are affecting crimes and democrats are taking guns away from law abiding citizens and criminals have guns. Guest well i think, im not sure that every major city is run by a democrat and frankly i dont think the one thing i do think oftentimes transcends some of the partisan politics is the safety of our communities. I dont know one elected official that doesnt think the safety of our community is one of their priorities. And i have been very fortunate, i worked for a fair number of executives and chief elected officials and to a person they have made Public Safety ape priority and not try to interfere politically with how Law Enforcement is done. Not every police chief can say that answered me i had the good fortune, so you know this notion that guns are being taken out of lawabiding citizens hands im not sure where that is happening. Frankly, since gun laws, there are some common sense initiatives that could be taken that would make our communities safer that can make it through congress or seem to make it through anywhere. I talked earlier about the fact that some of the shooting scenes have shells of gun cases. You had a germ of ammunition where you had dozens of rounds that were being fired out of a semiautomatic handgun. When it makes sense to enhance the penalty or to make a specific law to give an enhanced penalty to someone who uses a highcapacity magazine in the commission of a crime. There is no impact on lawabiding citizens. If someone is committing a crime with a highcapacity magazine shouldnt they face a stiffer penalty and shouldnt they face more severe consequences . We cant get that Gun Legislation through. Universal background checks, people can circle the background issue chet background check issue in this country. Thats how handguns get into the hands of people that should not have guns whether they have Mental Illness or whether they have are my records. Some of these crimes they cant seem to get any of those things past congress or the local level raid. Host felicias next joining us from montgomery, alabama. Good morning, democrats line. Caller good morning. Good morning and thank you for taking my call. I would like to say to the chief, was a go ahead felicia. We are getting a little bit of feedback. Caller i wanted to ask him how many black officers does he have fun is forced . Guest i dont know the exact number. Its certainly over 100, maybe 150 or so in my department. It could be more than that. One of the things, ive been police chief there for 11 years. When we got there we have a large latino population. We only have 3 of our officers, double the number of latino officers. We are probably 15 asian and our county as well. Im lucky if i have to present our Police Officers. Host why is it difficult to recruit minorities . Guest for some there are a lot of cultural issues and certainly with the Asian Community and not seeing Law Enforcement is the kind of career their parents are encouraging their kids to go into. We have pretty high standards. We require two years of college and you have to pass a rigorous background check so we do have high standards but we worked very hard and we have been increasing the diversity of our Police Department along the way. Host do you have time for two more calls . Guest absolutely. Caller good morning. Ive question. If youre over time about communities were all throughout the night to hear gunfire and i was just wondering how can i be dealt with . These people live in fear and they have to sleep on the floor. Is there anything that can be done to address that . Guest thats a great question and this goes back to neighborhoods where you have got this kind of violence that is going on almost on a daily basis and have certain strategies that the Police Employee whether his plainclothes officers and they have got high disability and cops on every block of the street to try to prevent some of this from happening. I know many departments have gone to the technology where you dont have to wait for a 911 call from somebody. Shot goes up and the cops know immediately because they have this shots fired technology where they can detect these gunshots with these listening devices. Down to, is the Police Department working with those neighbors effectively . Are people coming toward and saying we dont want to live in an unsafe neighborhood. We dont like this any better than anyone else and id be working handinhand with the police. For a host of reasons and that is where the police really have a responsibility to get in and develop that trust for that neighborhood grade folks understand they are there to keep them safe. They are not there is an Occupying Force of some kind. They are there to keep every resident safe in and the community has to realize they have a responsibility for the safety of their neighborhoods as well. If you think the police can handle it all by themselves, they cant, not in any jurisdiction whether its a high crime area or a quiet area. You have to have the corporation for policing. Host when their citizens pull out their smart cop smartphones and report incidents happening what effect does that have on the officer . Guest you know, its been having a dramatic impact. For the most part, and i can tell you that i have caught lots of cops, the best example is the shooting in north charleston. People were repulsed by that. You look at that and you say thats an absolute criminal act and people shook their heads and thought oh my lord we are all going to be charged by the actions of that officer grade and it happens. The public, some members of the public have this perception that all cops are like that and cops havent been held accountable over the years and we will y for each other. Its simply not true. Hasnt happened in the past . Yes it has been i will tell you the police understand that we have to be transparent and we have to be held accountable and i think even young cops, i mean listen i was 21 years old and industry and all i wanted to do was be a Police Officer. All he wanted to do is save the world and i can till you i didnt think about all the things that i think about every day as a police chief so for my cops they understand it makes their job harder. I have cops to walk down the street and are taunted by groups of individuals. You walk past and somebody will say hands up, dont shoot. The officer just walked by and hasnt done anything. It does impact my officers but thats why im reminded every day lives and you are there, you have an Important Role in the community. You are there to build that trust and as i have said a couple of times as tough a job as they have their doing their best everyday. Host david gets the last word joining us from georgia. Quick question if you would please. Caller first a question that comment. First of all thank you for cspan. Akamai county, where exact ways that emeril and . Guest is adjacent to washington d. C. Caller that is close to baltimore area. Okay. I have been listening and trying to figure out if your hands are just tied by the what you can say and what you cant say or if you have the same liberal type mind that is prevalent in your area . Especially with the political the bestn your area, thing to do is just back off. What has happened, parents are not raising the children right. You cannot force that. What you have to do, the police force has to back off and let happen what happens. The Community Gets together and says this has got to stop. Host thank you for the call. Your thoughts . It is a do not think good idea for any your thoughts. I dont think its a good idea for any person Police Department to back off and see how bad things can be, the fact is you have to Work Together and if you get to get to the point, i never felt my hands were tied and i will tell you that not one of the elected officials know my politics. What they know is Public Safety. Ive had indepth discussions discussions with very liberal politicians and conservative politicians and my point of view is the same, what im focused on his Public Safety. What makes sense to best serve the public and frankly, i think some of the more political discussions, another time we can talk about immigration, and gun violence and all sorts of things, the fact is that things that i know to make our Community Safer is what im focusing on. Thank you very much for stopping by and well have you back to talk more about these issues. Thank you. On the next washington journal, your phone calls and thoughts about the gop debate bait. After that the Census Bureau and the Washington Post discuss voter turnout since the late 1970s. Plus your Facebook Comments and tweets, all on washington journal, live at live at 7 00 a. M. Eastern on cspan. 57 of the Homeless Population in the u. S. Student does not have Health Insurance compared to 13 of the total population. Whats the relationship between stable housing and health outcomes, specifically for those receiving medicaid which provides Health Coverage for low income people, children, pregnant women and the elderly people. Well have live coverage at noon on cspan. Sunday night on q a, well talk about detroits Financial Issues and overseeing the largest bankrupt interest in it in industry. The stock market is not trading at 18,000, almost three times what it was it not only would have tripled their money it wouldve paid their pensions in full and got back into business with the 13 check which is giving businesses the 13th check at the end of the year in addition to a 12 month payout. It could affect it itself if there is some sort of sober management Going Forward or just like any management in the United States. If you have strong leadership and focus leadership you can resolve these problems, it takes a lot of effort. Sunday night on cspans q and a. More about the Iran Nuclear Agreement now, taking you inside the negotiations. From the aspen security form, this is an hour. Were about to begin the next session good afternoon im a phds student, and im also a 25th teen aspen scholar. Id like to introduce our next session on iran and the bomb, this month we witness the p5 plus one and Irans Nuclear capabilities but questions remain, for the United States does this set the tone for new engagement with iran. Or is it an appeasement to a regime where theres little to change and what does that mean for the region more broadly. This this panel will address the threats of a nuclear iran along with the game changing, it will assess how best to assess them. Moderating the session is michael croley, he is the Foreign Affairs correspondent covering Foreign Policy and security from washington. Prior to joining in michael was was chief correspondent of time magazine, including iraq, china, israel, egypt, israel, egypt, mexico, saudi arabia, turkey, lebanon, and ukraine, where things are quite busy from time to time. With that i will handed over to you. Thank you so much, thank you for calming. Im glad to see a good turnout this is going to be a great panel and needless to say this is a topic on everyones mind. Well try to go beyond some of the things you have been hearing in the past ten days and look forward at what the iran deal means for the u. S. And the iran and region. Well talk about the mechanics of the deal and people want to ask about that in questions, that is fine, a lot, a lot of the panel will not spend too much time on that. Quickly i will introduce the panelists. Starting on my left is john mclaughlin, former acting director of the ci way cia. Next is Matthew Spence who departed the pennant don who is secretary for middle east policy, is special assistant to the president , and alan neese is alan neese is the vice chair of the National Intelligence council. John lets start with you, back in washington, secretary kerry got a grilling from the Senate Committee in which, among among other things he had told he had been bamboozled and was like into a hotel guest who left the hotel with nothing but the hotel robe on his back. Do you agree . Whats whats your take on the deal . I would say leaving aside all the details about centrifuges and percentages in which material we can come back to that. I would say this deal is not as bad a deal as critics think, its not as good a deal as we would like. I think on the whole its better to have this deal than not have a deal, i can see it unfolding in about three different scenarios, anyone who tells you they know exactly where this is going to go in this todays middle east is delusional. Well come back to the scenarios later but i think its better to have this deal than to not have it. Great will get the three of you on the record and will feel it out from there, give me your initial take on the deal and then im gonna follow up with something you wrote about what the deal could become. Whats your reaction . I think its a remarkable diplomatic achievement, i think its a success will depend on how its implemented and that i rons has some choices to make on how to implement it. I look at the prism of does it change the dynamics of regional security, i think once we get past this. Of theatrics and drama, i think people have a very emotional reaction as to whether they trust the iranians are not, i think people will accept that this is very much a net positive for the reason region. Let me follow up, you had a pretty ambitious take on what it could become an something you wrote in april. You said it was a great moment of opportunity for the arab world with israel as a silent park partner to strike a new deal with iran. Can you explain that . Can we can we really expect closer iranian cooperation with her so much distrust in the reading speemac lets be clear that the agreement is a narrow Technical Agreement on only some of i rons behavior behavior that we find problematic. For the United States we thought it was the behavior that was more harmful to our interests, that would have security and obligations and need to respond if i run went further along the path of becoming a Nuclear Weapons capable stay. The countries in the regions were telling us it was in existential threat to them, we then put up a very robust and high Risk Strategy with our un partners and got to the finish line on a plan that does limit irans, and and virtually prevents iran from becoming a Nuclear Weapon state for at least a decade or a decade and a half. So its still a little confusing to me and as you say the other reasons you say why this turmoil and violence and distrust in the region are clearly creating an environment where nobody, people are only looking at the downside of the agreement, theyre not looking at the potential upside. What i was what i was trying to do in april was look at the horizon and get over the initial period on how this could change regional relations. I think think era should be a net secured benefit for them to know there isnt another Nuclear State in the region, but it will be a period of adjustment. It is not the first time the United States has tried to help the countries in the region establish a better policy and i think were always seen how they recalibrate a bit how they talk about the agreement and the longterm relation with iran. Matt, you are on the inside is this unfolded the first thing i want to ask you is did you expect the deal to come through. The president was and it was the little about a 5050 proposition, where you surprise it was put into place and what should we be thinking about . First of all thank you for having me here the one conclusion i am fairly certain after spending less than a day here, is the negotiating in aspen it not in switzerland they would still be going on because nobody dare would have wanted to leave. Its a better place place to talk about these hard issues. The way i think about it, i was pessimistic about whether deal what happened because i wasnt sure if the iranians could get to the place they needed to be. If if you look at the pressure they were under, whether it be there sanctions in the distance satisfaction with where the country is going, iran was definitely under pressure, it was less clear whether internally they would reach a place that would meet americas redlines. The way i think think about the deal right now is at the very most the end of the beginning, if only that. This is one important step for a huge amount of things that need to happen next. Two things i am most concerned about first, verification and inspection and what happens if theres cheating and second, recognizing that any arms control agreement is just dealing with that. Arms control. But the Nuclear Pieces just one part of broader issues of i rons behavior in the region. So the focus needs to be how do we deal with irans other bad behavior in the region, and how do we think about a strategy that will the Nuclear Issue but dealing with a whole other range of things that iran is trying to do. I want i want to come back that talk about that more detail, let me ask you about this week. What do you think conversations were like, and what can carter be telling the raleys and saudis that they havent heard 50 times question. I think what i expect would have happened, having been to israel in particular, almost 30 times the last three years and my job working on middle east policy. Is innocent something similar than before, but its very important to keep hearing it that the United States knows that i run is more than an arms control issue. What i i mean by that is i ron has a regional ambition, they are are conducting terrorist attacks, they have reported the press with potential cyber attack, they have a huge amount of asymmetric threat. What all this means is the United States is not going any war just because the deal is there. In some sense just the likelihood of i ron getting a Nuclear Weapon has declined, the work and americas commitment is still there. The message to a ritual israel and the saudis is the United States will continue to have an enormous commitment in the region. We have have military resources in the region, 34000 military and the region, some of the most advanced aircraft, missiledefense warning system, the best that region and the world has ever known. That is not going anywhere. Because of that, there is a huge amount of concrete manifestation of americas commitment to resisting the range of irans behavior which we cannot expect to stop but we will be there to show them what the cost of that is. Talk about the role of the Intelligence Community, seems theyre two different kinds of intelligence that will be important. One is the kind of close monitoring of iranian civilities the question of verification, will we catch them if they try to cheat. The other is an analysis about internal iranians policy what direction the regime is headed and the extent to what do we really have visibility to see what direction the country is headed. Take on the first question first and tell me what he can about the World Intelligence community will have on backstopping this deal and away the administration cant talk a lot about it in public detail. Sure before that let me elaborate on one point, when i talk to some to some of some of my israeli friends, i think is really opinion is very good on this opinion that one might think. As far as i can tell most of our israelis thinks this is not a good deal but they dont think of it quite as harsh harshly, they see for example a shortterm advantage in the basic fact is i ron is less, will be after a 90 day transition. If it all works out that something people need to remember that the deal doesnt take up back to for a while now, it will be less Nuclear Capable than it was before. Remember there are two or three months away from a bomb if the first steps of this occur, they will be a year away from a bomb. Israelis recognize this and theyre looking at the longterm, because at the end of 15 years of course the game is up in terms of these events. Your question i think what well see here, let me make clear im not speaking for the Intelligence Community so im not giving away something here that i shouldnt, but then i probably will, because its hard not to. I think what youll see unfold is a type ofs energy between the intelligence world and the world of inspections. Thats not to say the world of inspections, the iaea is dependent on the intelligence entirely or that they are working for intelligence, but intelligence will be looking very carefully at the iranian behavior and were pretty good at this to detect suspicious activity or cheating. I would remind everyone that in 2002 thats exactly what we detected in the case of north korea which had an agreement made with the United States in 1994, to start stop their Nuclear Activity and we found in 2002 that they were preparing to acquire the materials to make a bomb. I think intelligence will be very good at this. I want to see if you words about the iaea, they are pretty good. They are probably undermanned for this job at this time, but they have a record, by virtue of i ron at some point in the next three months, excepting whats called the Additional Protocol to the nonproliferation treaty. They will be much more intrusive than what they have been, which is what is raleys had noted to me that there will be more intrusive monitoring. If you look at the issue, heres where the problem is going to come on that side, the first time you detect some sort of suspicious activity somewhere, and i ron doesnt want us to look their, there is an elaborate procedure that can stretch out over 24 days days of negotiation with iran about whether we can look their. Everyone is assuming that in that. Of time they would sanitize that site and there are be nothing there, but, but i want to say the iaea not a have a pretty good record at that sort of thing. For example there are instances in both iran and syria where they have gone in after, in the case of syria after israel had bombed a suspected Nuclear Facility there and were managed to still detect Nuclear Activity there. Because in a circumstance like that theyll take minuscule samples of various things that could be nuclear. When i ron was previously lying to us about things that were nuclear related, the bottom line is it all works as it is supposed to work, the intelligence and expection part of this will be pretty effective, but i also suspect that is the first place it could break down. Because of iranian objections of where we want to go. One of the most worrisome aspects of i ron suspected program was a place called parch in, where it was thought that they were doing conventional explosive testing that would be sort of a substitute for nuclear testing, they have not allowed us to go there. In the agreements, it says very little except therell be a separate arrangement between the iaea and i ron on parch in. And mrs. Become a point of contention in congress and thats been an issue this week. Yeah how intelligence covers i ron issues, they shifted bit in a good direction. As you all know we talked about capabilities and intentions on the softer human side, of covering i ron, there are now at least some relationships and we have be able to establish some human contact of at least some of the key players in iran. We are not getting anywhere closer to the leader, we dont really know what happens in the inner sanctums and and i ron, but at least there are channels that i think will be a breath of relief after so many decades where we were following i ron remotely and we knew we could follow large movements of military forces, but we we really felt very handicapped at not knowing enough about the internal politics. We all know this agreement was negotiated by the good guys and i ron, if if you want to believe that, the president and Prime Minister but theres a whole another part of the iranian system that would take a different view on the desirability of the agreement. I am not suggesting by all the time that secretary carey has been with the Prime Minister or that somehow that is sufficient, but it is a big improvement over what we pat for 30 years. I think intelligence people are certainly aware, others are aware of and nothing is in this agreement that guarantees a transformation that i ron, but having said that, i ron has competing powers, it has a quasi democracy, 40 of the University Graduates are women. It is still very repressive at the top but we have seen since 2009 a Reform Movement that got squash, but others beneath the surface, so there is in the election of i ronnie and he wasnt supposed to win, the council determines who gets to run and in the last go around they didnt let someone run who they thought was supposed to be more pragmatic than others. He was thought to be a little offcenter in terms of the regime, and he won. Which tells you that there is some sort of yearning there which visitors always report back, some sort of yearning with the outside world. That being said, the people at the top still call the shots, my point is there are competing powers there. If this agreement goes well, what i mean by goes well . If johan he gets what he bargained for, sanction relief which can also be seen as a detriment of course because they would have more money to do the bad thing, but if you get sanction relief than the parliamentary scheduled in february i would think that he would gain some votes. What does that mean . Maybe the balance of the parliament shifts a little a little bit, these are all sort of concepts, but thats what youre working for here. Do you think thats too optimistic from the pentagon view . People in the pentagon take a dim review of the reform then folks in the administration is it tate department, if you want to jump and go ahead. If i was doing my job right at the pentagon, nobody would ever accuse me of being an optimist. So i would say i would agree with what alan and john have said, i think we need to understand the potential impact of having contact between the United States and iran. To put in contacts at the beginning of this administration, the United States communicated with i ronnie with through the un and through occasional, high level letters. That was very unique, now you, now you have seen her u. S. Diplomats, talking on their cell phones, spending weeks at a time having intense negotiations , now those are going to change things in International Politics but a country where we dont have an embassy and and now well have 244 hour surveillance from the iaea, that provides channels to see if theres things we can talk through, and i think we should underestimate the fact that were talking to them at all. I think with the iranians be more open and talking with United States even if were not talking with a whole section. Is that enough . You wrote some interesting thoughts that i read about our history and misjudging i ron. We didnt really see the Islamic Revolution coming we continually we member by several times last decade. Is this time different . Do these talks really give us reason to be different or is there more we need to be doing, do we need to recognize her limitations, how do you think about it right now. So we will make new mistakes. Its a very interesting when the revolutionary came and there is an after action and we are now talking late 70s, early 80s there is a very painful acknowledgments that we left the shot tell us that we can talk to the opposition in iran. So its a very we went from a very messy and unattractive revolution but there is a period in transition when the United States was the most important aspect, we had a huge huge business presents a military presence, we had we are involved in every aspect of iranian life, there are a great partner and friend in the region along with saudi arabia and israel. So think of how much is change. The recognition that even the large embassy, we had filtered and centered ourselves a bit because of the special relationship and didnt deeply understand the society. This is an ongoing challenge for analysts and in democratic countries around the world, not just ours but our European Partners also face some of the same dilemmas. You are always balancing how much you want to get along with the incompetent regime and how you want to be making sure youre scanning the horizon for what might change and who are the other actors, who are the other rising voices in the country. We sometimes censor ourselves sometimes we simply have no access, im not suggesting that were suddenly switching, the switch has moved a hundred and 80 degrees. This will be a very gradual and incremental process. In this. Entering these entering these negotiations, the state department and other parts of our public, private worlds has been able to open the aperture a little bit, i dont know if youre aware but theres some Amazing Things going on at the nongovernment level between the United States and iran. Berkeley, Shiraz University have an exchange, there are all nongovernmental. Theyre asked exchanges on public health, on environmental issues, joint issues, joint projects on teaching iranians about issues around natural disasters. We are trying, and i think thats why we want to go back to why their president is very scrupulous to say this deal was only about the nuclear activities, we may no promises, it was not contingent on a more comprehensive approach. A more comprehensive approach. The iranians themselves may have wanted more, prehensile approach but we did not. In reality, there is a bigger box in which this is happening, and that bigger boxes beginning a process of trying to engage more openly with iranians for the long term. Whether the representative solution survives or. We have seen journalist, american, european, iranian journalists getting to know each other in twitter and twitter and share notes, and starting relations sit so maybe theres a little bit of twitter diplomacy going on. Lets acknowledge the general was to go to iran are at high risk,. Having said all that ive think about the fact that most, if not all of irans neighbors who are in real proximity to them, for lack of a better phrase thinks this is crazy talk and naive, despite that i was surprised to see express support for the nuclear deal and this comes after a year and a half of the saudis saying its crazy. First of all were you surprised to hear that reaction and that i want to talk about more specifically we are doing to assure the saudis. In my experience ive spent a lot of time talking with the saudis and other partners about it, they were never so hard up against the deal that they threw down a red line and said we couldnt do it. The. The concern was more in the sense of, look at theres a deal we know how americas defense resources are, with everything was sequestration with congress, are you you really going to be here if the deal is done. I think theyre savvy to realize that the deal is happening right now the question is what is next. To your point though what is next is one of the most important things happening right now. Everyone talks about pres. Obama who may gather the leaders at camp david and talk about what that might mean. There is an effort that goes well past the year be before which i remember working a lot on, which is what can we do to build update capability these of the gcc and these were cyber security, maritime security, and air and missile defense. All three of those thing that iranians pose a threat so we need to intensify efforts and hopefully use a deal to an opportunity to get the gcc countries to Work Together. All of those threats together our collective actions. No one country can deal with that at one time. I think you have to find a opportunity here and its incredible hard to do with the gcc. Do on a touch time and quickly. Security cult cooperation i think the u. S. Has made progress with the gcc and the president s invitation to camp david made a difference, but remember within the gcc you have a different approaches to iran. Theres a person can community who lives there, you have spectrum of views of the shia problems and on dealing with irans in general. If you give it a high level of security and deterrence they agree, but what comes to economic interaction with iran they have very different policies. John, no go ahead. Let me ask about how we strike the balance, it seems to me that will be a real challenge here. Were not suggesting as a result of this deal, and some degree we need to flex more muscle and we have to not only reassure our allies and also demonstrated iranians that they just can have the run of the place. How place. How do you find the balance between doing that, without stumbling into a comfort confrontation that blows up a nuclear dealer blows up any type of relationships we have, do you think we can walk that line question mark. Is going to be hard. I think you can get at the question and say remember these negotiations have been going on since 2007 in one form or another. The middle east we see today is so dramatically different than the middle east we had in 2007. We have a middle east now that is in conflict on at least four or five dimensions, persian arab, sunni shia, reformer versus traditionalist, terrorist versus regime, and i could probably add terrorist versus terrorist, weve never seen that before. So the type of task youre sketching up United States here is extraordinarily difficult. You could say the middle east right now is experiencing, i dont know the 40 years war in europe, back in the 17th century, which was about religion, commerce, territory and ultimately it was sorted out after all those years, 30 years. Maybe thats what were seen in the middle east now. For the United States now anything we do is going to provoke an opposite reaction, somewhere, so i think we need to handle this very carefully. The inspection process, theres going to be disputes. Were talking about this as though its a done deal, the delicacy is going to appear sometime in the next 90 days, for example, most people dont realize that iran still has to work out with the iaea a type of roadmap of how the iaea will behave and what will they have access to and how inspections will work. Inevitably, we will want to look at something they dont want us to look at, at that point we reach the crunch point. Irans view, which they have expressed if we back away from this agreement then all bets are off with them and they start enriching again. They quickly become a Nuclear Threshold state again, so we are going to have to calibrate this. And what if things really go off the rail . And theres talk about a military option, he warned in 2012 that a u. S. Strike in iran would be a very bad option, i just want to throw in one other thing, if they have this 15ton weapon that could possibly hit for no one other underground sites does that change the way you feel about it . I dont think so, you could do it surgically it by surgically you mean you dont have to follow up with 20000 troops. Although, heres my first caution about that. When you look at the history of warfare, one thing stands out about everything else, when you inflict violence, you dont dont know where its going, you dont. You may think you do, but you dont. So thats the first thing, if you do that we better prepare very carefully for option b, option c, and option d so we know, we have some idea where this could go and what scenarios will come out of it. Second, a military strike would do functionally exactly what this agreement is doing, it wouldnt destroy, it wouldnt for all time destroy the nuclear capability, it, it would delay it. This agreement, this agreement just buys us time, thats all it does. If you believe that ten to 15 years from now, assuming the iranians follow the rules and play the agreement out, they would then have the capacity to become a Nuclear State. So so we have bought that time and given the turmoil i just gets on the middle east, thats not a bad thing, because we dont know where the middle east will settle out. We talk about the saudis and for example i dont know why king solomon is saying what he is saying, but theyre in a funny situation now because our very close relationship with saudi arabia, egypt and a closer closer relationship with israel, postdates the fall of the shop. As ellen pounded out prior to that i ron was our big partner in the region, now the saudis and the egyptians in particular must be looking at this whole arrangement saying is there a tectonic shift occurring here which are role with our United States and our position with the United States and in the nations less than what it is here . One certainty out of this is that i ron is going to become more powerful, for better or worse they will become more powerful. Either with this agreement, or without it, but particularly with it. What is that going to mean . Be specific i know i spent a lot of time looking at these scenarios, what are some of the friction points we will have to be careful about, where we very had a little bit of tension in the last few months, is that going to ask lake . I agree with what john said, i said, i think as we look at i ron, they will have an increasing population, increasing youth population. Population. Even if you hold inside the Nuclear Issue this is not a nuclear agreement, theyre still growing in the region. The thing the thing you talked about was the Major Concerns are what they can do with the maritime security, what they can do with cyber issues and other asymmetric issues. I remember being on an Aircraft Carrier going through the strait of vermeers and seeing the small iranian boats which looks like they could either have contraband or water scare behind or potentially something very deadly to ships going through. Those are the types of things i ron will still have that we need to be very wary about what theyre doing. Its not irans issue just to shut down the straight right now, because of oil doesnt flow but still the fact that they can have that threaten uncertainty and we are still not clear about the decisionmaking of who controls what within iran, those are issues we need to be aware of. Let me give you an assessment of a former Israeli Intelligence officer, and this is what i agree with and will perhaps puncture the impression that im sorry i optimist. I i do see potential for good things coming. This former intelligence officer, sees it this way, three scenarios and i will mention them in terms of the least likely first and the most likely last. First, transformation. In other words what i think the administration is hoping, and to a degree betting on is what all of us have talked about as a possibility that i ron, through all of these contracts, through the changing nature of that society, 60 of that society have grown up since the revolution. As a general disenchantment, that exists even though its still powerful, transformation could occur, its conceivable. Second scenario, he calls it the north korea scenario. They play play along for a while, they follow the terms of the agreement for a year or two, things are going well but then they either break out of it, or they are caught cheating and the whole thing breaks down. Thats essentially what happened with north korea in 2002, after an agreement in 1994 to after an agreement in 1994 to cease their plutonium production. Scenario number three. He calls it, strategic patients on irans part. What what does that mean . He says, they play the game, and this is probably the most likely. They play the name was some minor bumps, hiccups along the way, we get through the inspection process, they do what theyre supposed to do they hold their enrichment to 3. 67 for 15 years, and at 15 they have the opportunity to experiment with some more sophisticated centrifuges. They played out, and at your 15 they move then toward becoming a Nuclear Power. The operational implication of all that, is that even if he has all the order of things wrong, we probably need to prepare in our operational planning for all three of the scenarios. The one transformation, how are we going to help that about if we want to avoid the north korea situation how do we do that . If they actually played on become a Nuclear Power in 15 years from now, what does that mean . We need to need to think all of those scenarios through. I bet you all have a lot of questions, i invite someone who really doesnt like to deal to chime in here, i think theres been some optimism from the flow. In the green shirt there. Im gordon chang, there has been substantial evidence that the North Koreans have been sharing Nuclear Weapons technology with the iranians, since perhaps perhaps the beginning of the century. That means in effect, iran could have this material in north korea and probably has plans with north korea with the devices themselves. So the question is, how does that affect our ability to inspect this agreement especially because people have said that is the correct critical factor Going Forward. So the way think about that would be to take a step back at what you need to have to have a deliberate deliverable Nuclear Weapon. You need enough nuclear material, plutonium, you need a nuclear need a Nuclear Device that is testable and actually works, those are very difficult things to have. We are incredibly paranoid to make sure that we are looking at the shortest pole on the tank, to make sure they dont have any of them. The thing we need to realize is, i ron, i ron needs to get all of these, once you have more contacts with iran, with iaea in spec since its harder for a run to do those things whether theyre working with someone or not. Even if you get that knowledge, that knowledge exist and you the most we can do is try to stop and rigorously regulate the behavior and make sure that even if we dont know what irans intentions are, we can make sure that we are not going to trust them, and do everything we can to crack down on the behavior. Thats the approach we need to take. When i look at the agreement it is distrust, in no way did any behavior depend on trusting i ron, it was looking for opportunities and doing everything we can to keep them on us because we really dont know what theyre going to do. I think in the broader perspective on nonproliferation. I think there is more the United States could do to delegitimize Nuclear Weapons and i think were going in the other direction again. We are re validating that Nuclear Weapons are the mark of a very advanced country in the final debates happen inside the United States, we are watching pakistan, india and china increase their arsenals. I would say we missed an opportunity to change the psychology of Nuclear Weapons. One other point, for some iranians, and im not suggesting i believe everything they say, say that all long we have not been his knee, i rons goal is to be like japan which is to stop short of actually assembling or deploying Nuclear Weapons, but to demonstrate the technological capability so only as in an extreme menace situation they would accelerate a program go to the finish line. It took us long time to trust a pan japan, we are not ready to give that level of confidence to iran. I think we might be making some very good assumptions that everybody in i ron wanted to go all the way to a weapon, there is no internal constraints on them in terms of going that far. We can look at a nuclear iran and i think youre right that there is a difference between being a Nuclear Power and be in a Nuclear Threshold i think for us, this is the opportunity to really test that. Its really what its built around. To make sure that we understand its not a homogenous view. And its not their gradations between. Of general hayden has a question but i dont know where he is,. I agree totally about the weapon and to try to use that weapon is asian and to try to explain the 2007 iaea. The Ballistic Missiles are part of the critical past and of going into negotiations we said quite publicly they needed to be included in a final agreement, and we took them off the table because i runny assistance. How did they then enter back into negotiations in the last two weeks in vienna, and we are now going to lift the sanctions on the Ballistic Missile program in eight years or sooner, if iranians meet certain conditions. I think to be frank and iaea wasnt in the room during those part of those negotiations. The nature of the negotiations is what you can get, what you cant, we remain very concerned about the Ballistic Program whether theres an agreement or not. How i look at it is without an agreement irans have incentive to accelerate the Ballistic Missiles and do much more. The the fact that weve had some amount of reduction on that, and at the same time thats just part of the agreement itself. While the agreement itself is going on the United States potentially has more insight into the program even though were not inspecting military sites. The other key part trying to increase the amount of integrative air missile defense, and provide more technology to the region needs to proceed at a pace at that same time. We need to look at the framework of sanctions and what we can actually hold together with International Sanctions on that, and see what the possible negotiable outcome. But while we are doing that make sure were doing everything we can on the defensive side to advance our own technology and to monitor those. Okay i see . The Supreme Leader of iran has has anyone in the u. S. Government ever seen and is it public and wise in a publish . I understand they submitted to the United Nations as a formal document so text of it exists. I just dont know whether anybody knows how to legally, and politically accepted as a legitimate document that would have influence the policy choices of other countries. Hes done it, but most people say you can also issue something to the contrary. I think there is a discourse and i ron to say that Nuclear Weapons is on islamic. Sometimes it doesnt quite make the threshold of being an important development. It does exist, i will try to find it for you. My understanding is that it was submitted to the United Nations even before these negotiations meet reach the very active phase. It will explain the position of iran on the nonproliferation treaty. Okay will take another question. Im with the american bar association, i want to thank you for a very thoughtful panel. I have two questions. What impact do you think this deal will have on the nonproliferation regime, because a lot of people are saying that at the end of 15 years, given if youre correct on how i ron stands that other entities will want to be like this threshold. Number two given the length of the plan or the agreement some of us are recommending that there may be summary choir meds inside the u. S. To help monitor this, may be the creation of an executive, and have an on growing group and expertise. At the if we have a nonexpertise at the usg. I think it would be a good idea, i would personally support the idea of a group like that, particularly like that, particularly a group of scientifically knowledgeable people. To keep their eye on the progress of this. On the nonproliferation regime, thats a hard one. I can see it cutting both ways, one positive thing about the ntt about i ron, north korea quits as you know, if they accept the Additional Protocol and they stay in the ntt regime, at 15 years this particular agreement expires at their ntt membership does not nor do the privileges of the international iaea to inspect and monitor, they dont expire. If they stay in the agreement. Part of what we need to do is monitor their adherence to the agreement very carefully. Now, if they shift to a threshold status at 15 years, yes, i think others will want to do that but its hard to into the future of Nuclear Technology in 15 years. Right now i say why when i run want Nuclear Weapons . From the standpoint of their national interest. Countries look at what happened in parts of the world in pakistan, and now north korea has three nuclear tests, by all accounts they are able to assembly 12 to 15 Nuclear Devices. Probably they could put one on a missile, and that has to make us a little more guarded with how we deal with north Korean People observe that. This will will be a constant struggle i think over time and it will require more constancy of commitment then we have shown to limit Nuclear Weapons. Its been a fad almost, we make a few speeches and have some conferences and then we go back to whatever else we are doing. Okay we have a couple more. High, fox news. I received a statement from doctor durer at uconn, im grateful you mentioned pakistan on the panel and the following statements given. Personally i feel the iranian leadership has very wisely impact magically save their country from a bad situation, call it a disaster if you would like. I would like to know your reaction. This was a response for me asking his response. I dont know what others think i would have to assume that what he meant was in the absence of an agreement like this, and in the presence of strong u. S. And everett israeli commitment, that it was plausible prior to the agreement that military operation may have been carried out. If yes me before if i still had the same opinion about that, and i give you half an answer i think one of the problems with the military operation is that apart from not knowing where its going to go, is that you would probably drive the iranian people together as part of the regime. I dont think you create anything else, i think thats probably what he is talking about. This agreement is a pretty good agreement for them. If anyone in here wants to read the hundred 59 pages i encourage you to do it. Its a good thing went to read on an airplane when you need some shuteye. The other point i want to make is that we sanctioned the hell out of them. When you look at the last 50 pages is basically a list of what we sanctions we sanctioned everything except maybe childrens toys, so that got into the table. Interestingly it didnt keep them from getting within two to three months of a Nuclear Weapon. Okay will take another question. High hasnt the train left the station on this . What would happen if the United States congress, with the veto majority beat rejected the deal . A sessional china and in india have already started lifting sanctions, so we cant resurrect the sanctioned bruising gene that we are ready have. What is congress thinking about whats next, because we cant reinstate the sanctions. I think you raise a good question thats good to conclude with. I agree that they can make the night states say for now, i also firmly believe that we need to have a robust and open debate about what we need. This an important part about the National Security and we need to recognize that people and loci should air their concerns. That being said i think it would be a tremendous mistake for congress to vote this down and for congress to pull back what the pres. Have in this negotiation. Part of the reason we need to have this debate, as we talked about this panel is the types of resources the United States needs in the region are are not cheap, and they are not free. Under our budget problems we have now i think probably Congress Needs to debate this issue and understand whats in it, and also commit to understand what its like to have this commitment, its allies and i think only by having that do come out stronger. Okay i think were almost out of time you want to make a closing thoughts. I think this period of lifting sanctions is going to get a little complicated, its not going to be a blackandwhite story. Story. The iranians themselves might be political black that hasnt been released to the average a running citizen. Your point is at least partly correct that at least other countries will abide by the agreement even if we were, by unilateral public choice said whoops we changed our minds we dont really want that agreement we still have that in place lots of unilaterally opposed situations i run is not out of that. Its a good idea for congress to debate this