Clinton and george w. Bush administration. Peter is here to talk to us about Public Confidence in the u. S. Military. Welcome to washington journal. Guest thanks for having me. Host you keep regular track of this gallup organization, trust in the u. S. Military the lowest in 2 decades. When we use the term confidence, what does it mean . Guest the military can do what we have asked them to do, and what we have asked them to do is meaningful to our lives. It is declining for predictable reasons. Host what does that mean guest the props that prop up Public Confidence in the military are all eroding. It is also hollow because part of what props up Public Confidence is political correctness, the belief that you have to say thank you to the military for their service. If you had a chance, you might have a different attitude. That bias is propping it up by as much as seven points. Host i was going to ask you about the title of your book, thank you for your service. That has become an oft used phrase. Your book is an inside look at where that confidence has been among americans. Guest americans dont know much about the military, but the one thing that they know is that i other americans seem to hav confidence in the military and it is corrected to show thanks. Part of the thank you for your service, awkwardness is i feel like i have to say thank you. High regard for the military, but at high remove from my personal life and that creates opportunities for misunderstanding, alienation, and then as we have seen, a dramatic drop in confidence. Guest whats up host what surprised you the most . Guest i was genuinely surprised by the degree of hollowness. We were saying we had confidence when in fact we didnt. I was also surprised at the way american so far have shielded the military from accountability for their performance. One of the props of Public Confidence is our belief that the military has performed well. The outcome of the war in afghanistan, quite negative. The American People are not blaming that on the military yet. They are blaming that on the political leaders of the other party. That gives the military an opportunity to play the partisan blame game. They side with that insulates them from criticism and perhaps from accountability. Host does our confidence in the military track with more fewer and fewer people are being a part of the military. Guest yes. One of the props undergirding Public Confidence is personal connection. Did you personally serve . If you did then you are likely to have higher confidence than someone who didnt. But the percentage of americans who had that personal connection either directly or through their family is declining. It is the demographics. The two generations has passed. A generation that was drafted has passed too. The size of the military forces are shrinking. It is becoming smaller and recruiting from within their own ranks, recruiting the children of those who have served. That means fewer and fewer americans have a personal connection, and thus we would expect over time there confidence will go down. Host i want to ask you about the struggles of recruiting. We are talking about Public Confidence in the u. S. Military. Peter feaver is our guest, professor at Duke University and author of a new book. Thanks for your service is the book. We welcome your calls and comments. 202 7488000 is the line for republicans. 202 7488001 is the line for democrats. 202 7488002 for all others. If you are a veteran or activeduty, 202 7488003. How do the confidence numbers pair with recruitment efforts by the military . Guest they work on the margins. That is to say, a driver of the recruiting crisis. The driver is the labor economics of available jobs outside in the civilian workforce. When the economy is going well, the civilian economy is hard to recruit. When the economy isnt doing well, the civilian economy is easier to recruit. The percentage of americans who qualify, who are of age to serve and qualify on medical and ability grounds, they do not have waivers for using drugs for instance that pool is shrinking. The percentage of americans who are of that group, shrinking pool who are inclined to join, that goes down. Those are all the major drivers. Confidence on the margins affects it by saying if you have higher confidence in the military, you are more likely to recommend to others that they serve, so it influences the influencers, the coaches and uncles who say you should serve. Host peter feavers book points out that the primary drivers of Public Confidence in the military are patriotism, performance, professional ethics, party, personal contact, and public pressure tell us more about party do you mean Political Party . Guest yes. It is high in the aggregate relative to other public institutions, but that is driven by historically very high levels of confidence among republicans. The gap between a republican and democrat on average is very wide. What has happened in the last several years as Republican Party members have begun to attack them military is republicans going down in there confidence. It has contributed to a decline in confidence among republicans. Host you mentioned the withdrawal from afghanistan. That brings me to a chart in your book that does not convey that well on here. War events by party. The invasion of grenada during Ronald Reagans term, the gulf war in george w. Bushs term, the u. S. Support in bosnia, 9 11 of course, the capture the killing of Osama Bin Laden during the obama administration. Each of those you see a spike in Public Confidence in the military. Guest this is the single highest driver. If americans feel they are at war, they will rally to the flag. Part of rallying to the flag is rallying to support the troops. Particularly after a dramatic event like 9 11 when suddenly all of the danger that used to be over there is now over here, that caused a big driveup in Public Confidence acrosstheboard. We are leaving that war frame, and more and more americans are not considering themselves to be at war. Yes, they see a future threat in china, but it did not feel the same as it did in the weeks and months after 9 11. That opens the door for americans to return to a more traditional view about the military, which is ambivalence. Host how long has gallup been tracking this . Guest it has been going on mostly since the vietnam war. There has been a steady increase in Public Confidence in the military since the vietnam war. It drove up particularly in the reagan years. In the 70s there was this malaise, this belief that the military was hollow itself. The attempt to rescue the hostages in iran went poorly. Reagan buildup and from the victory in the cold war helped propped up Public Confidence in the military. As the chart indicates it goes up and down with perceived performance and perceived need. There have not been those dramatic successes are dramatic urgent threats that would create that war frame. Host what about factors like how much we spend on the military, or you mentioned the withdrawal from afghanistan or things like Sexual Harassment cases in the military, how much does that play into confidence in the military . Guest americans have a high expectation of high ethical behavior by the military. That is one of the props that supports Public Confidence. When there are reports of scandals, when it looks like the military is struggling to control the problem of Sexual Harassment, that is also going to drive down Public Confidence in the military, and rightfully so. Public confidence should not be untethered to the actual performance and deserving this. The military needs to not worried about being liked. It needs to worry about being deserved of Public Confidence by being professionally competent, by being professionally ethical, and staying out of partisan politics. This is the big change over the last several years. We have made the military combatants in our culture war. We have dragged them into some of our most divisive social issues, and then held them hostage or put them in the limelight and ask them to defend controversial policy so they become combatants in a culture war that should be fought by civilians alone. Host peter feaver is our guest. We welcome your calls and comments. Joseph is next, syracuse, new york. Joseph, are you there . Ok, hogans ville, georgia, activeduty lined, mike, go ahead. Caller veteran, drafted vietnam, 1972. Our armed forces are very much divided as you accurately said, sir. Most of the officer corps when i was in were independents, and most of them still are because we were taught early in basic training that we all wear green and we all bleed red. My immigrant family came to this country in the early 1900s, and it was after the armenians were slaughtered by the turks and were going back after grace. We all know that greece and turkey have been at war for thousands of years. That has never been resolved. I commend you on your insight. I would only make one suggestion. My grandfather served in world war i for the u. S. Army. He said that is the price you pay for the privilege to live in this country. I would change the name of your book. Instead of thanks for your service, how about welcome home . Guest that is a great suggestion. You raise a number of points. The military is a traditional Halfway Point into American Society for those on the margins. We are celebrating the 75th anniversary of the integration of africanamericans into the military. The struggle of civil rights was played out in the u. S. Military, and the success of senior africanamerican leaders in the military became something of an inspiration for folks outside the military ranks to push for civil rights. This has been a role of the military, but it was driven primarily by the mission need, the need to have a capable military. You are seeing some of the current culture war controversies playing out in a similar way. People say do we need to focus on these issues . And the u. S. Military says yea h, we do thanks for your service. You are a child of someone who served in the military. That is good but that becomes a recruiting challenge as the percentage of americans who have served go down. Those are the only americans propensed to join. Host up next is bob in pittsburgh. Good morning. Caller i never thought i would say this five years ago, but i have four neighbors who have kids. I have seen on tv they are going to go after terrorist white people in the military. Right off the back to these white kids are not going to go in. The other thing is bmi. They are going for military people. This is crazy. This has never happened in this country. Vei is about White Supremacy in the military. Host bob bringing up diversity, equity and inclusion. Guest one of the things that color demonstrates is the partisan critiques of the military have penetrated. There was a recent poll from the Reagan Foundation that shows when you primed the American People and ask them Public Confidence is going down, why do you think it is going down . The answers you get follow the talking points in the culture war. Democrats would say the confidences going down in the military due to a rise of extremism, meeting right wing extremism, and the military. Republicans would say confidence is going down in the military due to a rise of wokeness. That is a different matter from saying these problems are actually rampant in the military. The military is not woke. Very few members of the military would meet the technical definition of woke whatever your personal definition of that is. The military does need to recruit from every walks of life. The the u. S. Military has a disproportionate number of africanamericans serving. They want to make sure africanamericans are represented in the enlisted ranks and at the top ranks of military leadership. Having a military with leaders who look like the rankandfile, that is good for morale and it helps improve the performance of the military. Last thing i would say as the caller did point out, the recruiter draws disproportionately from the recruiter smile, the american midwest where most bases are. Those who claim falsely that the military is obsessed with dei, that could shape the attitudes of influencers. Host lets hear from alex on the republican side. Silver spring, michigan. Guest its maryland. I have a kind of unique perspective, as you can tell from my voice i am a little bit younger than the previous couple of callers. I would like to comment a little bit on the difference between the age group of the people who would have been in a prior Generation Service members and the millennial generation, but also have a little bit of background in myself in my family, both of my parents are academics, but i joined the military afterwards, first time in my family the army andi was stationed in afghanistan the army and i was stationed in afghanistan. My brother joined after me in the navy and a few years ago finished his service. The thing is with your particular topic being what the public thinks about the military in terms of, i believe, effectiveness and utility is it is really from the perspective of everybody i have served worth in terms of the enlisted and stuff like that, you get a sense of the incompetency of everything. I understand the sense of patriotism that people get into, and the outside perspective people have, but when you are in it and you are doing all the dumb stuff and you have things like, my brother served on the uss boxer and they come up years later with news articles being like all the Water Systems on the entire ship or polluted from backwash from dumping into the ocean, and things like that, nobody i have served with our i work with now or i work with now wait even bat an eye at that. That is perfectly reasonable given what our expectations are. It has been a big, generational issue for all of the people i have served with at least. Guest you raise two important issues. One is the generational issue. Younger generations on average have lower confidence than older generations. It is ironic because the baby boomers who are raised in the 60s when there was so much social turmoil about them military and draft dodging and charges of baby killing leveled against the military, that generation has now some of the highest confidence in the military of any of the cohorts in america and it is the youngest generation, which has the lowest confidence in the military, however, the youngest generation has the lowest confidence across all public institutions, not just to the military, so there seems to be a problem with organized institutions in general for the younger generation. It is not narrowly focused on the military. In terms of military incompetence, that is a perennial of american sentiments towards the military. That is part of war. War produces all sorts of chaotic mistakes. The winning side is not the side that never makes a mistake, but the site who corrects their mistakes faster. World war ii was the paragon of American Pride in its military, but many things went wrong in world war ii. Today, our military is far more professionally competent, far more capable of protecting and saving its own members of
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