We have heard a lot of talk this week about a possible recession, about this company sliding into recession. Define for us what a recession is, and tell us if we are headed into one. Recession in economic terms is six months of negative growth, so the economy is literally shrinking. We goingebate is, are to see that right now . Usually you have to see shrinking growth and substantial job losses. So you need those two things, neither of which are fun or pretty. Week the starting this u. S. Economy literally shut down. For the past three days, i have been in my house. I havent gone out for lunch. I havent been going to the gym. I havent been doing my daily routine. And when you multiply that across the country, it is an immediate shutdown of every sector pretty much but healthcare and grocery stores, for now. [laughter] if they can keep those shelves stocked. So definitely march is going to be negative, definitely april, probably may. The question is, when do we rebound . I would argue yes, we are going into a recession because the firstquarter and secondquarter will probably have negative growth, but there may be technical debates about whether we truly reach six months. The hope is we will have a vshaped situation where there is a real sharp shut down of the economy followed by a real sharp rebound. Whether we get that sharp rebound depends on whether congas continues to act, whether people who need this relief, sick pay and medical leave pay, can get it, and whether ultimately as a nation we will get through this and resume some semblance of normal life by summer. Host you mentioned we saw a quick rebound after president Trumps National emergency declaration. We see the package working its way through congress. We dont know what the senate is going to do, what they are going to do next week, or if they are going to move at all. So is the government doing enough to turn around what is righting with the economy now . If you asked a wall street person or an economist, the answer would be no. That is why we have seen tremors in the markets, they dont think it has been aggressive enough in the United States. When you think to 2008, our last real panic moment, it actually took a series of actions. Able criticized the government for being slow to act than, and they had to do not just one stimulus package, but a series of stimulus packages to get the economy going. I will say i was encouraged yesterday i comments by House Speaker pelosi, by treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin, who has been negotiating this deal, both were referring to, i think Steven Mnuchin said this is just the second inning and a baseball game. So we are going to need more than just what is in this bill. Host earlier this week, you wrote that defaulted both corporate and personal are the biggest threats right now. On the one hand, we have you had colors just the past hour, Small Business owners, literally if nobody is coming into your bakery or your Pilates Studio right now, you have no income coming in. A Small Business owner i was talking to in michigan was asking if i could survive 2, 3 weeks of this, sure. This survive two months of . No. A wave of defaults could also include bigger companies. Airlines, this is a dramatic drop in cash flow coming in, a lot of concern if all the airlines will survive this. No Energy Companies. On the personal side, it is the same thing. You had colors in the last hour who have referred to its great needs great news that we have sick pay and medical leave pay to try to get people some money to get them through the next few weeks, even months, but what happens if you get laid off . You can apply for Unemployment Insurance, but it usually will not be as much money as you were making in your regular job. What does that mean . You do not have enough money coming in. And if you cannot dip into your savings maybe you dont have any savings 40 of americans werebefore coronavirus struggling to pay their bills. Do you not pay your mortgage . Do you not pay your car payment . That is where this pain can grow quickly if we are having the same conversation in may or june where people have not been able to get back to work. Host you hear a lot of talk gigt the economy the economy. People holding smaller jobs i should not say smaller jobs, jobs that pay less. How will people in the gig economy be affected . Guest they are some of the earliest and worst impacted so far. Ive been calling around talking to different workers and employers. The events business. Think about how many conferences have been canceled. Restaurants,els, lighting designers to set up the stages. All of these people, that is like true gig work. South by southwest in austin, that was a huge blow. What is going to happen to a lot of these people who put together all of these different gigs . I was encouraged to see ive got it right here, the text of some of the bills passed last night in the house, and there is a tax credit for selfemployed individuals, so that is going to give selfemployed people the chance to access this paid sick leave and to access family medical leave. Obviously, they will not receive a check from employers in the mail, but they are able to apply for this tax credit to offset, and it is also refundable. Lets say this is the worst year ever and you make almost no income, you could actually get a check back from the government. T is a little bit of help viewers can join in on this conversation. We are once again going to open up regional lines. If you are in the eastern or 202708time zones, call 4000. If you are in the mountain or pacific time zone, call in at 2027484001. 20274ays text us at 88003. One of the questions that i have to ask is that what about the intending tore retire this year and who are now looking at their 401 k s yet as we have seen this drop in the stock market . I made the mistake of looking at mine and immediately decided not to do it again any time soon, but what about people who were deciding to retire this year and were hoping to use their 401 k as retirement . What does it look like in the retirement sector right now . I feel your pain, but we are not retiring. Before i was in injured before i was a journalist, i worked in the investment industry. What you have to understand is yes, today, you are looking at that 401 k or whatever your retirement pension is, smaller than it was a month ago, no doubt about that, but most people are not only an stoxx, they are also in the bond market which has had a pretty good rally in the past few weeks. It is important to remember that you are hoping to be retired for 20 years, 30 years, a pretty significant time still, so you , and itl do retirement is almost guaranteed that you will be in a better place with your finances and certainly 10 years, hopefully five. I always tell people this stat we used to run this at the investments firm. The market always bounces back. Even if you put your money in on the worst possible day which was just before the Great Depression the stock market crashes in 1929, all of your money would have been earned back within 13 years. That is a long period and you would have made money after that, but if you are sitting here thinking, im retiring in a few months, ive got hopefully 20 more, 30 more, many more years to live, you will earn that money back. The house passed their coronavirus aid package on friday, but we have one tweeter butsays, i havent looked, is there anything in nancys bill for me . What is in this package that individual americans can look and say this will help me in my Economic Situation right now . The biggest two things ive seen well probably 3 is number one, making testing three. Test can cost over 1000. That is a lot for anyone, even if you are doing well. That is supposed to be free now and more widely available. We will see if that happens. The second thing that is really important is the people who lose their jobs. In the coming weeks, we have already seen some of that at hotels. Mgm resorts in las vegas, for example. There is 1 billion for Unemployment Insurance to beef that up. Will that fully content will that fully compensate you . No, but it will make sure you have some money coming in so you can go by those groceries. The third thing is key for people debating if i should stay home or go into work . There is now mandatory sick pay. For the next coming month. You can take up to two weeks off, and you will be paid your full wage. You can take up to three months off and be paid up to two thirds of your pay. And as we were talking about for people who work these gig jobs, independent contractors get a tax credit of the equivalent amount. That is a seachange. Workers have been calling for this for years. We finally got it, at least for the coronavirus period. Host are you hearing, have you heard of any additional provisions that would come from the senate that would be added to this bill . Or is it still just pretty much what we see coming through the house . That is a good question. There was a lot of focus from republicans on helping Small Business and making sure guest that is a good question. There was a lot of focus from republicans on helping Small Business and making sure this does not just become Small Businesses that are already struggling to pay their bills now have to pay sick pay. That is why you see the tax credit. It is actually refundable for Small Businesses. If a Small Business does not have a tax bill that is high enough that make sense, they would get money back from the government. That was a big focus. Republicans are really cheering that victory. The question is, are republicans going to be interested in this bill . Everybody hates that word they allowed. That word bailout. It is for the Airline Industry or the cruise industry or the energy sector. I sought Goldman Sachs predicted in the last few days that 30 of Energy Companies not survive this. They will either be bankrupt or merged. A lot of pain is expected. I dont think were going to see a bailout in this bill. Keep an eye. Think were going to see a bailout in this bill. Keep an eye. Host lets let our viewers keep an eye on this situation. Lets start with john calling from virginia. Thank you for taking my call. Yesterday the people around the president was walmart and cvs. I do not believe this money will go to the Small Business. Those people will benefit. Stevene trust mnuchin, who took advantage of the Housing Market collapse . He put people in that situations. Saying we talking about socialism is not good . What we are doing now is socialism, and we are trying to. Elp the rich people could you please give me some answers . Is right that it the government will pay these companies that were standing with the president yesterday to do the testing for drivethrough testing in their parking lots. In that sense they will benefit. When you look at this bill, if a Small Business is getting a tax credit, a big company cannot take that away from a Small Business. There is some relief for Small Businesses. Billions also approved of dollars worth of loans for Small Businesses. Small businesses have been telling me, why do i want to take a loan when i am already feeling cashstrapped . There may be more discussion about how to help Small Businesses. Ofn you look at the art secretary mnuchins career, there is a lot to analyze. When you look at it from the political side, nancy pelosi and treasury secretary revolution have formed this unique relationship in the past year. They have negotiated almost all of the bipartisan deals. All of the debt ceiling work, and now this cheap package has come from those two. I look forward to seeing more stories about how that relationship works. I heard about people who were on airplanes and listen to nancy pelosi talk for hours with Steven Mnuchin. It is a very unique relationship. I think there is perhaps some trust on both sides. The last thing, the socialism, a lot of wall street people were joking about this. Even on cnbc, there were basically calling for these socialist measures. Is me what is really unique this is a groundbreaking moment for worker benefits in this country to suddenly have sick pay for everyone else at family leave for everyone else. It is only designed to exist during the coronavirus outbreak. I think this opens the door potentially to these benefits staying around. Is that socialism or not, that is another debate. Host President Trump was asked yesterday in his rose garden is conference about possible assistance to the cruise industry. Lets show you what was said. [video clip] i can tell you it was an industry that was very badly impacted by what is going on with the virus. It is a great industry. We will be helping them and the Airline Industry if we have to. Asking, wehould be want to make sure our airlines are very strong. One day it was not looking so good. Host what kind of assistance will specific industries be getting because of coronavirus . Bailout makes a lot of republicans uncomfortable. We did a little bit in 2008. We did a 15 billion bailout for the Airline Industry after 9 11. What can we see in the short term . Italy is a good model. Did is they immediately passed a big tax cut for some of those industries that have been harder hit. I think that can probably be on the table for some of these industries. Whether or not the government actually gives them cash is more dicey. The people would much rather see it come in the form of a tax cut. What is interesting about cruise lines, some of these companies are not u. S. Also half of the workers in the cruise industry are based in florida. Drives ahat also little bit of why there is so much focus right now on helping that industry in particular. We have someone who tweeted a question i have not heard yet. Stella wants to know what is all of this doing to the National Debt and deficit . No doubt when we are talking these big numbers like what we are seeing starting to come out that it is going to add to this years deficit and the National Debt overall. I have been someone who has been writing about the concerns for the debt for years. Now this isright the moment to spend money. This is about keeping americans literally and economically so they dont lose their home and car. This is the time when we need government. This is protecting our nation and military. This is the function of government. That is why you are not seeing even people who normally scream about deficits and budget concerns, you are not seeing that right now. Darius fromtalk to washington, d. C. Good morning. Caller good morning. Thank you for cspan. I love your objectivity. One thing about virus, they are highly democratic. Everybody can be affected. On spiritual to go on a cruise to portugal at the end of april. I canceled. I was actually going with oceana cruise line, which is under norwegian cruise line. I just canceled that cruise. They gave me a 10,000 credit. I worked at usaid for four years. That was during the ebola virus. The thing to look at from that prices, now in rwanda they have no cases of coronavirus because they have established manually pumping washing stations they use to disinfect. You look at nigeria, nigeria has one case. That came from italy. We have to look at how this virus has spread. Got the memo. They shut everything down. The United States was very obstinate about change. We still want to go about our daily lives and not worry about the economy or how this is impacting a socially. We are hardheaded people. There has been a lot of talk. Our correspondent tweeted yesterday that in senegal they are doing driveby testing already in four hours. Clinice cleveland mayo it takes 12 to 24 hours for them to do it. There is a lot of debate about why the United States and china have had such a hard time with this response. Those questions are going to remain. We need to be looking at other parts of the world to see what have they done that we can borrow . Host President Trump has not always been the biggest fan of the Federal Reserve and jerome powell. Guest that is putting it politely. Does he view the role of the fed right now . Guest this is a tense relationship no doubt. The present honestly believes the real economic response needed to come from the Federal Reserve. The fed normally cuts Interest Rates, which makes it cheap to get a mortgage. You have people trying to refinance their mortgage right now because rates are so low. The other thing we saw in 2008, it can help to stabilize the market. It does not mean they are literally giving banks money, but they are providing shortterm loans to these banks to ensure that they have enough to do their operations and buy and sell bonds. Change . All of this economists across the political spectrum have been screaming at. He white house there is uncertainty. Making it cheaper to borrow money does not do much if you dont want to leave your home to even go look at a house that you might want to buy. That is why people are saying this really needs to be a federal government response, meaning the white house and congress to get the Health Crisis under control. Needed is to get money into peoples hands. There was a republican economist who just put out a blog. He said that the best idea right now economically would be to 500 or 1000s checks. Hands sointo peoples they can pay their immediate bills and when all of this hopefully blows over, they will be motivated to go out and spend again. Lets go to randy from virginia. Caller hello. Good morning, america. It is just hard to know where to start when there are so many children that are out of school. That is my biggest concern. There is no more important issue than their physical and mental health. This is one of the reasons i started my Small Business was to help educators and professionals with prevention and connecting the dots from school and neighborhoods. We are setting up intense. We have mobile education facilities and the like. We just need to mobilize those. Thated smaller platforms can solve big problems. America needs to mobilize. Guest i think he is exactly right. That is what gives me hope this morning. We are starting to see creativity around the worldgueso address this and keep society going. I was watching a video online this morning from sicily, italy. They are locked down. They were having a block party with these pots and pans. Tentsave been setting up to make these mobile schools in a smaller setting. That is what gives me hope about humanity and the United States. Lets talk to randy from california. Good morning. Caller thank you very much for cspan. You kind of stole my thunder on monetary policy. All of this is mostly fiscal policy talk. I had heard the fed was going to get together this week and possibly cut more interest and my question is i had heard that bonds can be specifically targeted on these Interest Rate cuts so the bonds benefit rather than a general Interest Rate cut. Is that true . Guest the caller is right. Meetingral reserve is tuesday and wednesday on Interest Rates. Here is what happened in the last two weeks. Two weeks ago, the country had an Interest Rate of 1. 75 . The fed made an emergency rate cut last week to bring that down to just under 1. 25 . On wednesday, it is expected we will go to zero. That is a pretty dramatic move. It is trying to keep confidence going in the economy and to make it as cheap as possible to borrow for businesses and consumers. The bond market is interesting. 2008 is a playbook from about what the fed can do to try to keep the Banking System and the Financial Markets stable and to help banks if needed. Bond sidencern on the is whether corporations might go belly up. Moment they cannot buy Corporate Bonds and a wider range of securities. It has been suggested that they have that power and ability. Thankwe would like to heather long for coming in this morning to talk to us about the of these attacks coming from the trump organization. Washington journal continues. Host we are back with elise gould, who is a senior economist at the Economic Policy institute. Good morning. We are going to talk about p