At cspan. Org or listen wherever you are with the free cspan radio app. Continues. Kondikoining us is kyle of the university of virginias crystal ball. Guest good to be here. Host remind people about what you do. Guest sen. Tillis crystal ball saba tells crystal ball ball tries toal pick the winners for the governors,ollege, house, and the state of the democratic primary race, which seems to be fast moving and changing. Ofare part of the University Virginia center for politics. I am based in washington, d. C. Host what is different for the super tuesday . For me, there is a lot more influx. You had two major candidates drop out in the last day. Pete buttigieg and amy klobuchar. There is a real effort from Democratic Party leaders to send a message to voters that we want you to vote for joe biden. We think joe biden is the better option. We suggest you vote for him. Klobuchar and buttigieg dropping out and endorsing biden suggests the threat Democratic Leaders feel from the sanders possible nomination. Im not going to tell you they are necessarily right about that. That is what they are communicating. It seems to be having some effect. There have been latebreaking surveys that show biden doing great. States like virginia and North Carolina seem like they were close in pulling. Biden might win those states by double digits according to some of these surveys. We dont know. You have a big chunk of early votes cast in states like North Carolina, texas, and california. There are probably hundreds of thousands of people who voted for candidates who are no longer in the race. Tom steyer dropped out, too. A lot of those votes are going to basically be wasted. It is an uncertain environment. Here is another way it is different in 2016, Republican Leaders did not want donald trump to be the nominee. Some of them tried to make that clear, that the Republican Voters who came to dislike their Party Leadership said we dont care, we are going to nominate trump. They were right. He won. The Republican Leaders that the leadership wanted to thousand eight, they lost, and in 2008 , they lost, and trump won. Democrats dont dislike their leadership as much as republicans do. Host the total amount of delegates that are available today, what does the path to victory look like for the candidates involved . Guest to me it is south versus north or the rest of the country. The west is part of that. Were expecting Bernie Sanders to win california. He should win comfortably, although even california is getting closer. Although many votes have been cast, a majority of the vote is still out there. In california, so long as your ballot is postmarked today, it will be counted. The california vote count will take weeks. We will not know for a long time who gets which delegates. That is the biggest delegate prize. Sanders looks research to win it pretty certain to win it. Maybe not as big of an advantage as we thought a couple of weeks. Elizabeth warren trying to defend massachusetts. There might be some late movement to warren because of buttigieg and klobuchar dropping out. We have minnesota, Amy Klobuchars home state, i think sanders is now favored to win. There,en were to surge that might tell us some positive things about midwest and southeast. Where biden is going to be tested. I think that biden could have a decent night without winning every southern state, but i think biden should win every southern state, and that includes texas. Sanders has generally been leading there. A lot of early votes have been cast, but the polls are picking up on late Movement Toward biden. Host we will drill deeper into that. Let me introduce folks into the conversation. 202 7488000 for democrats. Republicans 202 7488001. Independents 202 7488002. You can text us at 202 7488003. If you have questions for kyle kondik about super tuesday, we will take those in a moment. Guest it is the state where biden is strong in the south. Biden does well with black voters. Unlike the other southern states, texas is a very diverse population, but that comes more from hispanic americans than africanamericans. Sanders has performed much better with hispanics then he has with blacks. Texas is kind of different from the rest of the south as classically defined. Some people might think of it as more of a Western State. We saw in the one Western State we had, nevada, sanders did very well. I think that is why sanders has been leading. There are also a lot of white suburbanites in that state who may be getting the signal now that biden is the person to vote for. We did not even mention Michael Bloomberg has spent this outrageous amount of money, and this is his first test. I think the race is breaking terrible for him. Carolina,n won south there were all these signals for people to vote for biden. Bloomberg as of today, it is possible he might win a state or two, but i cannot point to anyone and say he is a favorite. Host has he visited any of those states . Guest he has been visiting all over the place, but mostly it is his ad spending. He did not perform that wellguen the debates. The first one he was in was widely watched. You only get one chance to make a First Impression. The First Impression a lot of people have of bloomberg is his advertising, but Political Science research argues that while advertising can have some effects, the effects of advertising can be ephemeral. If you are hammered every day with advertising, there may be diminishing returns and people may get sick of it. I would argue that biden does not have a lot of money. He has not been running a lot of bats. Of ads. What he has gotten in terms of positive earned media the past couple of days is more valuable than anything bloomberg can buy on television. Not only did he prove himself in South Carolina and with the state that he should have one a lot by a lot, he has gotten this consolidation among the nonsanders part of the party with global chart and buttigieg buttigiegbuchar and endorsing him. Host is there an existential debate going on about what the Democratic Party is . Guest yes. If this race boiled down to sanders versus biden for the nomination, voters are going to have pretty clear choices. Sanders is just more left wing on a lot of things. I think with the sanders folks would tell you, and i think this is legitimate, sanders might be able to make a cleaner argument against donald trump because he does not have some of the baggage biden has. War, supported the iraq and even though trump was not in government at the time it was happening and arguably supported it at the time, he was able to fashion himself as an iraq war eraic and a critic of bush foreign policy. Things. There are other biden is sort of talked about, we are going to have a big tent Democratic Party, liberal but not too liberal, work with republicans. I think that is appealing to a lot of people. Sanders is like, we are not going to work with the republicans. They are not quick to work with us. He talked about political revolution. We are going to have a liberal president pursuing a very aggressive liberal agenda and things like medicare for all that biden does not support. Host our guest is kyle kondik until 9 00. Sergio starts us off in florida. Good morning. Caller good morning. How are you . Host doing well. Caller yes, i was impressed yesterday with everybody coming together and endorsing joe biden. That shows the strength of unity. My question is, do you think that Elizabeth Warren has a chance or Michael Bloomberg to rise to the occasion in super tuesday . Guest great question. Important question. Andink for Buttigieg Klobuchar getting out, it helps them. You have a 50 delegate threshold to hit 15 delegate threshold to hit in the state and in some individual congressional district. It is all very complicated. Dont assume that all of those voters are going to go just to biden or sanders. It is going to be a mix. It seems like biden may benefit more than anybody else, but for someone like warren or bloomberg who were at 12 , if that gets them to 15 , they will start hitting delegate thresholds. That arguably means those two candidates are still in the game even though biden and sanders are going to have significantly more delegates. Host delegate threshold, explain what that is. Guest the way the democrats allocate their delegates is proportional. On the republican side in 2016, it was different. Winner take all. Democrats rules are all the same, primary or caucus, it is 15 support threshold to get delegates at the statewide level and at the sub statewide level. California, you can look at that as 54 individual contests within that state. There is a significant block of delegates awarded statewide, 270 thatthen there are are awarded in each of the 53 congressional districts. Each of these congressional districts are different. Ones that are going to be heavily africanamerican, it may be possible that biden is the only one that gets delegates out of those places. Districts that are younger or more hispanic, maybe sanders is the only person that hits the threshold. The other thing about california, the vote count is going to take weeks. There is no conspiracy about it. That is just how they do it out there. They spent a lot of time to verify the ballots and whatnot. We cannot really make any judgments about california for weeks. It is also going to be where sanders gets probably the most delegates and his biggest delegate lead of any of the states. Andd on our own assessment many analyst assessments, a lot of us were coming in today assuming sanders was going to finish the day with more delegates. I still think that is the case. We have to account for this late changing environment in which biden seems to be creeping up. If sanders comes out of today with a delegate lead only in the double digits as opposed to triple digits, that is potentially an issue for him. A fromthis is liz twitter saying Mike Bloomberg has been ignored, if he has a surprise good showing, does that change the race . Guest it might. That is probably worse for biden then sanders. Bloomberg are competing for more of the same voters. All sorts of different voters have different ways of looking at it. It is easy for people like me to say sanders is liberal and limburg and biden are more centrist, therefore everyone who thinks of themselves as liberal or centrist will vote for biden or bloomberg. To a lot of people they are a lot different. If bloomberg starts hitting these 15 thresholds, he starts but teamleading delegates. The next time we have a debate is scheduled for march 15. There will probably only be for people on the stage or less. The fewer candidates there elevates the status of everyone else. For whatever candidates bloomberg might have as a candidate, im not saying his money does not matter, it is just some things are more valuable than money. Idaho, democrats line, jesse. Hello . Caller hello . Host you are on. Go ahead. Caller yes. I was calling because earlier you had a caller who was suggesting that Bernie Sanders is representing the Democratic Party and he is not a true democrat. Think the president republican, a true and he hasnt had any buddy on the republican ticket to run against him. Complete going for all the things Bernie Sanders is for, i do agree on if thee for all and that , um. Host we get your point. Thank you. Uest in some ways sanders distance from the leadership of his own party is an asset for some people. There are a lot of people who like sanders who do not like the Party Leadership or joe biden. The president benefited from that in 2016. I do think that Republican Base voters are more skeptical of their leadership then Democratic Base voters. Theight be seeing some of thi evidence of that in the shift towards biden. The other thing is that the way that the nomination process has been opened up in recent decades, you dont really have to be a republican in Good Standing or democrat in Good Standing to win the nomination. All ofties have ceded the institutional power in selecting the nominee to the voters themselves, and in some states independents can cross over and vote in the democratic primary. Frankly, there is some research that suggests the parties have ceded it to the media to some degree. Who ends up doing well in some cases is determined by how much free media they get. Donald trump was always willing to be on television. He had these rallies. They were interesting and entertaining to a lot of people. All of that coverage helped him. All of the coverage of biden has helped him in recent days. To me that is more driven by actual events in that he did win big in South Carolina and two of the major candidates dropping out and endorsing him are newsworthy events. Cover,e press decides to and the press is not a monolithic thing either, that can determine which candidates are in the spotlight. I have seen a lot of complaints from Elizabeth Warren supporters that she does not get the coverage she deserves. I think a lot of candidates who well leave this and go live to a News Conference with Federal Reserve chairman powell. Bringing that range to one to 1. 25 . My colleagues and i took this action to help the u. S. Economy keep strong in the face of new risks to the economic outlook. The fundamentals of the u. S
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