Influence in the region and iraq in particular in the context of ongoing demonstrations and how iran is working to destabilize iraq and what is the evolution of u. S. Foreign policy towards irans government. First i will introduce our distinguished panelists and then provide overarching remarks before turning it over to them for an interactive discussion. [introductions] our panelel introduce 20s, Michael Pidgeon has years of working on security and counterinsurgency and policy issues in the mideast. Noise] timeent considerable asking on influence in iraq an advisor embedded. The iranians are interfering with the microphone. The abbasid is applicable activist, founder and president of the rock foundation, a Nonprofit Organization committed to the support and promotion of democracy and human rights. [loud mic feedback] we need technical help. Is a get . Better. From november 2003 to march 2000 and five, she joins the double Medic Service rep resenting iraq before the u. S. Government. Anothernior panelist is a senior fellow focusing on iraq and terrorism and intelligent and plea variously a fellow at the American Enterprise institute and director of the middle east initiative at the project for the new american century. For i turn it over to our panelists and i hope the mike is working, i wanted to make a few introductory remarks that hopefully will help frame the discussion today. That toy conviction is counter iranian hard power we need to dismantle iranian soft power. For this, we need to understand multiple and contradictory streams of messaging. In iraq, irans soft power is an overarching narrative of regional indigenous reason degen us resistance against imperialism. And as a cover for its hegemonic projects in iraq. Its success is largely due to the lack of a coherent alternative that exposes contradictions and reveals a utilitarian character. The alternative can be based on the unified national identity. This is something that the abbasid or will address. Iraqis need to know the level of usurpation by iranians. Story,bit, story by about every ministry and every institution and the cables are part. This is something michael will look at as well. For the last five weeks, more than 200,000 iraqis across the country have been protesting on any given day. Over 320 by the last count that i have seen have been killed and over 15,000 wounded. The protesters are angry about corruption, unemployment and also irans influence. They include idealistic secular youth and workingclass as well is others from the south. I want to suggest that iraq and lebanon as part of a developing revolt against efforts by iran to protect its power throughout the middle east to project its power did middle east. It is time to listen to the protesters and what they want, to support their demands for new social contract valid by and for iraqis rather than at the behest irans dominion and how to be do that, what are the limits of iraqi nationalism in this context . Turning it over first we balance that the u. S. Role is needed and there are legitimate reasons not to trust this. Turning it over, iraqis have affirmed their desire to reverse the growing iranian influence in the country what are the limits and challenges of the reemergence of iraqi nationalism . It breaks a formula that was artificially imposed after the United States enshrines a system of divisive power across ethnic and sectarian lines. Thank you, patricia. Thank you to the Hudson Institute for hosting the event and hosting me what is really extraordinary about the protests, it is now called the uprising and some people in iraq call it a revolution a popular resolution revolution. Baghdad all, it is in and in the south which is predominantly shia areas. The thing that is really remarkable is the boldness of the protesters, and the slogans they are raising against iranian influence and against the Political Parties, including the militias, that are deemed to be supported and encouraged by iran. I say this is extraordinary because it is very dangerous for these protesters you do not openly rip down the posters of khomeini or shia militia leaders, without fearing consequences there are consequences and this outbreak of resentment against iranian attempts of controlling, and you spoke about soft power, there is in normas there is an Enormous Economic control of iran and this is something that has been suppressed for a long time in thet in basra summer of 2018. It has reemerged this year, it has reemerged in a more powerful way and much more openly this is really a turning point that shows true sentiment is in the shia regions of iraq, this is their way of controlling the question is, this is a popular protest movement, but it hints against entrenched political interest principally, it is exercised by our militias, who in theory and in print, follow the part of the Iraqi Armed Forces and come under control of the commanderinchief, who was the Prime Minister, but in practice though, these malicious are not not underlitias are such control they are outside of the armed forces and they behave as a team we have seen a reaction by these against the militias. The two have been in confrontation the protesters have torn down posters and torn down the headquarters of the militia parties in a number of cities , in basra and so forth. Militias have retaliated from time to time, we have seen videos that clearly show the militia members, from their own headquarters, allegedly in selfdefense shooting other at the protesters who are trying to storm those offices, so we really do have a change it is the open defiance that is expressed by the protesters do you want to comment on this . I would agree with all of that, but i think it is going to be very difficult for the iraqi political establishment to disengage itself from iranian influence because it is so intertwined. It is no secret to say, and i think that was hinted at, they , howimes intercept expose deeply they are financially intertwined. Iran does not like to spend a lot of money and building up networks. But it does spend money and you can buy a lot in iraq. Think you have to keep in the back of your mind, there is some sense that iran is the last resort. Uncleort of the shiite who will come to rescue things really get unpleasant. Iraqi community have to become a lot more confident. They have to develop Greater National pride. As they do that, and i think that is the inevitable, then the tension with iran is inevitable. If you put truth is, and iraniansia, a in the same room, within short time the iranians will be acting simplistically. And it does get on your nerves. All these factors really militate against longterm iranian domination of the iraqi establishment and the iraqi political system. In the short term i do not see an effective countervailing force. Certainly the United States is not it. I think it is fair to say now the iranians largely beat the United States in iraq. And i doubt, i do not see that really reversing. Gamenk this is largely a among the iraqis and in between iraqis and the iranians. That is an excellent point that the United States has lost iran in iraq and the iraqis are trying to win it back what is interesting about that is the lack of a strategy in iraq has not been addressed by iraqis it is happening now they willing to push back against the status quo in baghdad with their lives like you said, they are willing to die for these things, and basically standing in the square and protesting against simple things, water, internet, and a future. Iraqis want to see less and less of a military america and less and less of a diplomat, want to see university professors, democrats, private Sector Investment in iraq and want a future and this is an opportunity for the United States to get iraq right by doing with the protesters want, and that may be in action or nothing, but what they are asking for right now is International Support and theyre asking for the United States government not to support baghdad, and that is something we have seen two weeks ago, the u. S. Was supporting baghdad against the supporters against the protesters. Another or not. What is interesting, i got a chance to sit in meetings with strategists in a coalition in dc and members of parliament, they were in agreement that this is not the time to engage baghdad this is not the time to get a lifeline to his government this is a chance to support the protesters by putting a spotlight on it with International Media we know what the protesters want they want Anderson Cooper in Tahrir Square it is simple they want International Media their complaint is a should not be ok to kill 326 iraqis in baghdad and have the world not care because there was a benchmark that you can kill 500 he cannot kill iranians without losing iran but he can kill arabs in other places using iraqi militias some reports say the Afghan Militia are now in iraq and iran. They were cultivated by the forces to deploy there were 20,000 deployed to syria and they have had almost a thousand casualties, and now we are reports that the group are in baghdad fatah mayun. They are in small numbers, but they are there this is something that is very concerning but all the iraqis are asking for is a media spotlight, showing that people care i got back from a conference i got back from a conference yesterday in bahrain and everyone is talking about the protest in iraq they are seeing the mismanagement of the economies in all three countries they may not necessarily be against iran, but i would argue that it is because the mismanagement of the economy in iran, the mismanagement of an economy in baghdad, and lebanon all tied to the main influences in these countries and we know who the main influences are in lebanon it is has below. Party paired up with the fontana party who is how sane so the money is guy. Fatah party, hassan suleimanis guy. Mike, youve been talking about the same thing for the last four years you see it coming and it is here it is an opportunity now for the us to get iraq right by simply doing those two things what is important, and i talked to an iraqi who knows this well, this gentleman right here, and everyone has blood on their hands in iraq and iraq is asking for help here just before we jump into that, i want to ask a followup question with regard to the differences, can we talk about the differences between the groups when it comes to nationalism, and what is the risk of regionalism . [indiscernible] get basla will we saying [foreign language] first, can i backtrack . The figure of 320 was weeks ago. Their recent figures of 450. Unfortunately do not have anybody keeping track of statistics paired undoubtedly, the government is, the mystery of health, but they are not releasing the ministry of health, but they are not releasing numbers. The 320 number we should always say this was weeks ago because one has to be realistic. Do, ims of what can one would add something, michael. It is not just that they want Anderson Cooper and cnn and there. It is extraordinary that neither the Un Security Council has taken up the issue. The on Human Rights Council in geneva has not taken up the issue. Yes, we have had reports from msd international and Human Rights Watch Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch, but they are not international bodies. A lot of the protesters are now talking about the need for International Multinational bodies to at least begin a process of accountability. Of investigation. Because the Iraqi Government is certainly not doing that. And people are dying every day. And i can tell you that the intensity of the violence against protesters has increased in the last week. Tohink there is now a push completely quell the demonstrators. It is sort of like the Irresistible Force meeting the immovable object. The Irresistible Force being the protesters and the immovable object being the government. I think the government now feels they really must crush this and end this. And they are willing to go as far as it takes. So these are things that could be done. Lets talk a little bit about the nationalism because i know it was mentioned earlier. The other thing that is very salient in these protests, is the ubiquitous call that you find everywhere in these protests of an air back in arabic they say [speaking arabic], it is more like a patrimony, something you belong to that you love that youre proud of. And that you feel loyalty toward. This is really what they have been asking for, because they have not had that in the last 16 years, one can at argue they have not had that the last 25 years and maybe even going back. Homelandraqis want a to which they feel a sense of belonging. And of which they can feel proud. Not call by the way has divided baghdad from basra. It has been constant, throughout all of the protests in all of the areas. Are there differences between baghdad and basra, and what does that look like . There are differences, partially because basra feels far more deprived than any other province in iraq. The Economic Situation and the situation of services is far worst than it is in baghdad. Yet basra always maintains that this is a double injustice because it provides 90 of iraqs revenue. Province that contributes so much to ox inget, gets extremely little terms of services, goods and services. So there is an added grievance in basra. Protest, there certainly was a sense of regionalism. By peoplewere calls in basra for creating a region of basra similar to the kurdish region. With all of the rights, the authorities, the quasiindependence that the curtis region that the kurdish region enjoys. Some in basra including politicians and professionals, want to recreate the same thing in the province of basra. That regionalism certainly was emergent. Has not emerged during these protests. If it is there than it has been in a sense, sort of, the wave of the protests has submerged it. Whether it will reemerge afterwards is not clear. Because there is this unifying of we want a patrimony. It may be a unifier in the long run. It may be the alternative that we were saying, does not exist yet. It may become that. Before i turn it over to comments, i want to follow up to ask you about the role of the sunnis who have been standing by, with the question of what can be done to fold the sunnis in this process and for them to be able to define these events as well. Lot,is question is asked a often in a different way, why are they protesting . There are several reasons. One is that when the sunnis protested in 2012 and 2013, the backlash from their government, they shot and killed them, and they accused the protesters of being a conduit for isis, if you will remember isise bathis and the bathis and isis are one. Into the sunnis are guilty until proven innocent they do not want to come out and be accused again of reintroducing isis all of the sunni provinces have just emerged from isis occupation and their cities and communities have been devastated, not just physical infrastructure, but the communities have been torn apart, crushed, and therefore, their ability to organize together is not there i would have heard factor. The shia are protesting because they consider the government in baghdad to be a shiite government which it is. Which it is. Therefore, their level of expectation for their government is higher than the expectation of the sunnis from the shiite government so, there is an imbalance of expectations. The shiite feels like this is our government, but what have they given us . They have robbed us it is not exactly, and a sense, you were talking about shiite in terms of population i just wanted to jump in on that what is interesting is the shiite protesters, there are two myths here you one is if pm abadi was not the Prime Minister, it would not be happening the second thing is the shiite youth are not tied to al sadar this was to show iraqis this is a guy we could move around what is interesting to your point about this is the first time and when i have talked to sunnis and kurds in iraq, they dont want to protest because when they took a legal stance in the kirkuk referendum, they were met with military force this is the shiite youth for the first time, 68 are under the age of 30 they know what it is like to live under these conditions one thing im hearing and i would like to pose this to the ambassador, is they want a president ial system. They want to be able to elect somebody with the popular vote in charge, and they dont believe the Prime Minister necessarily needs to be a shiite Prime Minister those are major changes when i talked to the sunnis and kurds, they are sitting on the sidelines to see how much power the movement has it can be sustained and can become an Iraqi Movement when we her will be here words like, iraqi should be free and those are big statements we are hearing that. The sunnis and the kurds will be hesitant to jump on board until the u. N. Is in there the human , Rights Council and other International Organizations are in there that should care that iraqis are being shot in the face. I think it is an opportunity for International Communities to take iraq away from iran finally we dont have a coherent policy, but the iraqis may have one. Im skeptical of anything that anything like that is going to happen in the short term i mean, iraq is a deeply fractured place. I mean, i have the greatest sympathy for the folks down south but that area is brutally poor. There are places in southern iraq where afghanistan looks a lot better. So, it is a very, very bad situation. That is the type of situation iraq can easily exploit. The whole political in baghdad is profoundly intertwined with iran. We certainly did not help by the way we conducted ourselves after we withdrew. So, im skeptical that the iranians will be disengaged anytime soon by an iraqi nationalist movement, although i think it is a very good sign, it is just one has to have patience here. None of this is going to develop quickly and probably not in a very satisfying way. The iranians and their allies have demonstrated they are willing to use force. There is no factor on the other site capable of resisting that. So, i think we are going to have to wait this out and there are things people can do on the edges, and i think certainly, soft power loses when it comes headtohead with hard power. There are things that can be done, but it is difficult for the United States to do this because of their rhetoric so far. And for example, we tend to talk, when we talk about the middle east, we talk about iraq, iran, lebanon, and we tend to put the emphasis on economics, and that is completely wrong. I think economics and political factors are deeply intertwined and if you are going up and now, were looking at another big ripple of what i will call the political reorientation of the entire region, and the potency of Representative Government and democracy. Those words are very difficult to articulate in the west, particularly in the United States where democracy promotions are out of fashion and one is exhausted by the middle east. But i think a serious mistake, n that has a particular shiite dimension to it. That weptical rhetorically are going to get this right. It doesnt mean that we cant do certain things that can be highly helpful. The hardest issue for me to deal coerciveraq is what measures are within the american toolbox that will be helpful. There arent many. I suppose sentience would be one of them. You would have to have that argument. Mike there are a lot of things we can do. I think this is an impatient response by the iraqis. They are tired of the u. S. Rhetoric for 13 years. They are finally taking this into their own hands. I think there is momentum behind this. I think this can actually work. Iraqis are skeptical of what d. C. Will do. Because of that, they are leading the way on this. , [we learned in iraq speaking arabic]. We have to look at the problems that arise. I am a texan so i may not be saying that correctly all the time. But it makes sense. This is an opportunity where iraqis are leading absent a coherent strategy from the u. S. They are not asking us to do much. I think there is an opportunity here. I . D alrahim can first of all, there is more than just sending cnn. Up at that this may come some point. The u. S. Really needs to stop dealing with corrupt iraqi politicians. Mike lord. [laughter] rend alrahim one could say exposed corrupt officials, they would not be able to deal with anybody. Corrupt people, we will have an automatic change of government and regime. And i think for too long the to turn been willing away from sights the corruption in iraq. To the dreadful Economic Situation, the lack of development. And to political ties to iran. Theater ion is the feeder that feeds all of these problems. I think corruption is an important part or should be an important part of u. S. Policy. And not just mild rhetoric saying that we are against corruption. We are all against corruption. So what . And also, i wanted to say, michael, we have to remember , 200,000 people are protesting. We have to be careful about their demands. So that people who want a president ial system, people who say that we dont care if it is to savewe really need the demands and come up with unifying demands. They are all over the place. They want a council parliament. They want to tear up the constitution. Careful of taking all of these demands as core to the protesters. Mike one quick thing. General petraeus had colonel mcmaster at the time put together a team to identify the corrupt officials in the Iraqi Government. We presented him with 50 names. This. D, i can do we would be replacing everybody currently in position. I had a conversation with him about iraq and he said iraq is better than its ever been. This was a year ago. Sir, everything you asked us to stop is on steroids. The militias have primacy now. A much different tone. I saw him this week in bahrain. A much different tone. That is good. Leadership is getting it now. Some of the leaders are now cassandras. Patricia everybody seems to that theh the fact u. S. Is needed. Just one point to flesh it out. If we say the u. S. Ought to deny the ability of iran to use undue force is the question. What can the u. S. Do to help level the Playing Field from the perspective of the protesters . You talked about cnn and corruption. That we canings hone in on so we can identify with the u. S. Can do . Given that trust is a big issue and the u. S. Is not always trusted in iraq which is something i believe you pointed out. Reuel what can the u. S. Do . Was i knowment you talked about that you cant just make it economic. People rightive now to the u. S. Government and say, sanctioned these individuals and change the authorized use of military force. We hit shia militias once they do something. Launchede 13 rockets at the air base, i think. No, just south of mosul. A Different Air base. We did encounter a battery strike that killed members of a shia militia. There were five people. It doesnt matter who the Prime Minister is as long as the leader makes has his influence. It doesnt matter who the Prime Minister is as long as the state exists and maintains their influence. These are difficult things to do. The u. S. Doesnt have to do any of that. We can sanction individuals and put them on the aumf. Iraq is our burning down the offices of the individuals i just mentions iraqis are burning down the offices of the individuals i just mentioned. Mentioningthat hes the same three guys all the time. They are the same three guys that cause problems. That is a big deal. I talked to somebody that is supposed to be objective on this. What if i told you that there was a terrorist that has killed americans, cowheaties, and are iraqis that has access to intelligence training and equipment. How is that possible . Every time i asked the state Department Official or someone in the white house why he still exists, they cant answer the question. They cant answer that question. That is an individual that the iraqis blame for getting militias to kill. Protesters. Ago, when protesters burned down the iranian consulate, the state department said, dont be violent. This time, we are not taking that position. There is a different position in the u. S. We are not very good at this. We dont do hard and we get easy wrong all the time. When an issue for the u. S. You go to baghdad and you talk to baghdad politicians that give you the good news story. You go to baghdad and talk to military officers they give you the good news story. I have never met an iraqi or american politician that have ever said things got worse on my watch. I have never heard that. You come back with good news stories. There is no problem. And you see it on the streets. I was an Intelligence Officer for 28 years, and one of the biggest problems in the Intelligence Community is this statement, we havent seen that in reporting yet. Though it is right there on the ground. By the time it gets to reporting, it is 30 days late. Six weeks late. That is one of the problems. We are seeing this in real time and waiting for everyone else to catch up. Iraqis cant afford for all of us to wait. Again, theyre obviously isnt going to be any type of military coercion of iraq. It is inconceivable that i dont think hes had much congressional support. I think it is force protection. Forced protection. When you cant do anything else, you can use the bully pulpit and use sanctions. I dont want to underestimate the values of using the bully pulpit. I think it always has some value. But we are a bit hamstrung by it. I dont think President Trump can do that. The secretary of state has done a better job. You dont really have the impression that the United States is invested in any type of coherent iraq policy. At best, it seems like an afterthought. That is certainly not going to change before the election. I dont think its realistic to have the hope that it would. I think what you can do is incremental things that the embassy tries to do. You are not going to get excited about it. Thei think the idea of United States be and more aggressive on the issue of corruption in iraq and elsewhere in the middle east has some value. Everybody knows that everybody is corrupt. It doesnt hurt to give that a bit of detail. Sometimes, these things can snap. I think that is a worthwhile endeavor. The United States is much better about gathering that information. You have to give the United States government, particularly the Treasury Department some credit and being able to compile and investigate these things that become much more adept and. Lothful sleuthful there is something to be said to be done there. I dont think it will be earthshaking. I think the issue here is largely for iraqis. It is whether the iraqis can develop a leadership that isnt tied ord, that isnt bonded to iran and can stay alive. Which should never be downplayed. Staying alive is important. Rend alrahim i would agree with reuel. Action byy that over the u. S. Will wield negative results. Precisely because of the issue of trust that you mentioned. Is a littlehat this bit of a controversial issue. Of course, the problems we have in iraq are made by the Political Class. But they are also blaming the that theuse of the way post2003 war was conducted. Spoils and som of on was allowed to happen or was encouraged. Is notr words, the u. S. Seen in iraq as the most equitable benign influence. One really has to be very cautious in taking steps if, indeed, the administration of President Trump has any thought of doing anything. I think putting the spotlight on it is good. Going after and sanctioning corrupt officials, at least a few of them, showing america is taking note of this and sanctioning these people. Repeat, we need some kind of International Resolve on this. It is not just a u. S. Issue. At least on the human rights question, there has to be some responsenternational to the Iraqi Armed Forces, the Iraqi Security forces. Caution int say washington is the best policy as far as iraq is concerned. It has led to iraqi protesters taking back their country. Rend alrahim it will be difficult as you rightly said. There is a point beyond which one cant go supporting protesters. Said aumf, i did not mean start killing iraqis. Militiasncluding shia that are doing things. Our state department believes leader,we sanction the it will be a unifying event for iraqis. That needs to be put to rest. That is not the case. Wi,ply sanctioning kazaa it is not the back party. You dont need to be part of the court to have a position. They have primacy and they allow everything they are trying to do. We cant trust the iraqi army. You can trust individuals, but they wont do things. As soon as they do things, like the counterterrorism director that was fired, as soon as they express any interest in taking on the shia militias, they are marginalized and replaced. The election in 2022. The International Community should identify iraqis that can lead a nationalist movement. Individuals in iraq that want a future and a relationship onh the west based investment, private sector, education, and universities. Iraqis are identifying those leaders. Is identifying those leaders and making them disappear. We need to put a spotlight on those individuals. It is not hard to remember four female activists that disappeared by the malicious. Militias. It should not be hard to remember their names. But we should know them. And i honestly cant recite them right now. These people are dying. It is an important cause. It needs to be different from al jazeera, sky news. All these agencies are doing the right things, but they want abc international. They want cnn international. Somehow that spotlight will be put on the protest and the world will care. We may be proven to be wrong but they still dont have that yet. Rereading a New York Times oped by my good friend Philip Gordon that was the senior director of the nsc under obama in the middle east. He helped shepherd the iran deal. In the oped from 2017, phil prognosticate it and said that if trump or to reimpose sanctions and withdraw from the would rallyans around their leadership and the United States would become the enemy. Opposite has happened. And i would just make that parallel that if the United States decides to use sanctions, regardless of their efficacy, but decides to use them more aggressively against the players, the one thing that we can be confident about is that iraqis will not rally around these individuals. There is certainly margin for maneuver there. We do not have to worry about this type of an argument that seems to dominate on the left. I think it has no traction whatsoever on the ground. Because i am the moderator and i have the privilege of asking the questions, i will ask a difficult one. Then i will open it up for questions. The tippingotests point in iraqi politics . And what will iraqi politics look like a year from now . Defer. Ll rend alrahim this is a prognosis. Im predicting. There are several outcomes. The protests have been going on for several weeks now. The death toll is rising. There are several outcomes. Is that the outcome government and parliament will implement atl least some of the demands connected to elections. Election law and so on. And therefore, there will be a compromise underrating the protesters want. Enough for the protesters to go home. That would be the rosiest scenario. Scenario that is being talked about, will there be a military coup in iraq . I think that is far from likely. Isdont have a military that so organized and tied together that you can do that. In any case, it is not desirable. I think the region has had enough military coups over the last seven decades or eight decades. The third scenario that i think thehe most likely is that regime will simply wear out the protesters. The people in government and parliament are sitting at home, having their meals, getting their salaries and they have electricity. They have everything to lose and nothing to gain by yielding. And they can wait it out. And they can kill more people. The raids are coming. Coming. Ains are the cold weather is coming. More brutality and oppression. We have seen it in the last week. Changes,a few cosmetic by which i mean there is a new electoral law being reviewed in parliament. Because it of a joke really doesnt satisfy the of theate demands protesters in any way, shape, or form. To maintain the influence of the Political Parties and not allow any new blood in. More oppression. Rely on the weather. ,o something slightly cosmetic but nothing that will harm the political system. Is the mostthis likely scenario, unfortunately. Maybe nextw summer. We will see a reprise of protesters because no change will have happened. And just to follow that point, next year they will be better organized, louder, and a repeat of what is happening now on steroids. The one thing i am concerned about is that the u. S. Falls for the cosmetic change. That is something we continue to do. The United States foreignpolicy establishment believe that if the Prime Minister had won reelection, none of this would be happening. All of this would still be happening because it happened under him a year ago. It is very concerning. Protests diane darkness. Darkness is the lack of media spotlight and a lack of internet. Security forces are being more brutal. They are using rubber bullets but aiming at the head. The militias are using bullets and tear gas canisters. They are not aiming at the extremities, they are aiming at the face. They just killed a protester with a rubber bullet yesterday. The International Community says, at least a used rubber bullets. At least they used rubber bullets. There is concern over the next year that we fall into an election cycle and we continue to see this in the region. Our geopolitical competitors or foes are hoping for an outcome related to that. In this case, a disinterested 2021 president that doesnt look at iraq as a serious i already. As a serious i already. Look at iraq as a serious priority. Deal,get back to the iran it modified behavior in the region. It did not curb it. It gave legal aid and propped up a sod. Propped up til assad. They built a land bridge. The protesters in iraq are taking the land bridge away. This is the first time the region is rejecting iran without a u. S. Hand in it. Which is great. We can only mess this up. We have to continue to look at the problems through the iraqi eyes. And to your point about all of these different movements having different agendas, i think that is a strength. It is leaderless. It is organic. It hasnt turned into one movement. Oneoon as it becomes movement, they become paranoid and can attack others or be attacked. , somethingstrength positive that it is leaderless and without a coherent message. Patricia i want to ask for a photo op before i give you the last word. Given that we started with the threat of what you were saying, how can we use the cables in a productive way to try to counter irans influence . Mike what were talking about is the treasure trove of documents recently released to the New York Times about 10 days ago. Ofse documents show a level infiltration in the government of iraq, also talking about specific individuals on the payroll. That are individuals in the Intelligence Community. Once the cables get released and , theret translating them is a concerted effort to get that done. The people denying this is happening cant and i at anymore. Cant deny it anymore. We have the cheerleaders saying everything is all right. People say everything is bad. And the cautious decisionmakers saying it is complicated and complex, maybe it will take care of itself. The documents released is significant. Pompeos statements about individuals tied to the corruption and leaks is significant. The same individuals we are learning about and 2015 are the same individuals killing protesters now. The same individuals that you have to walk past their office to get to the Prime Minister. And another move the u. S. Could make is move the Training Program to where it can continue to defeat isis campaigns. Campaign is what iraqis are giving baghdad. I think the u. S. Should follow suit. Vice president pence went to iraq and visited the military base. He did not go to baghdad and it sends a good message. It is pretty hard, i think. We dont have the perspective to know whether we have reached a Tipping Point in iraq. I am always partial to stopping the study of modern history at 1650. I would take a wild guess and say 2019 has been a very bad year for the Islamic Republic. And i think you do see, in iran, you see and a certain shiite distemper. Distaste disquiet and for the iranian clerical regimes dominion. I dont think that is going away. Acceleration, the regime strikes back. I think the shiite secretary and secretarianism is an ecumenical military approach. They tried to seek out sunnis more than shiites. Shink they attained a great of success. But it might have reached its apex. Now it has to deal with the aftertaste of that. On that note, i am optimistic. I would say that if we are on the cusp or close to some type of fundamental transformation in the Islamic Republic which is conceivable. Unlikely, but conceivable. It has to be good news for iraq. It takes away one of the factors which is pretty theyll full baleful. It is hard to see how there is a Positive Side effect. Happens, if we are seeing a weakening of irans position through the region, that is a very good thing. I am not convinced that we are. I think what we have seen in the air of shiite world arab irane world, once again, has erected. I think it is a mistake has a rep did iran has erupted. Can i just say one thing . I understand why in talking about iraq, we are always talking about iraq. This is not always the best way to think of iraq. Iraq is not a function of iran, as we often treat it in washington. And when we treated that way, we only reinforce an existing problem. I think we need to think of iraq separately from iran. There was no question that at the moment there is a strong link. U. S. Policy seems to be more focused on iran and the byproducts. Iraq is one of the byproducts of the focus on iran. I dont think it would be right to continue to think of iraq as a function of policies towards iran. That must have resonated with people in the department of defense, the state department because they have not put them in the sphere of that influence. It is only recently that iranians have been put back in that conversation. It is a good thing we are talking about irans influence. The narrative has been that of course they will have influence. Neighbor. Canada is our neighbor, but doesnt pick our president. Mexico is our neighbor, but they dont have primacy over our security forces. It is good that it is back in the conversation because if you said that to anyone in the last several years, it would resonate with them because i have not heard anyone in the Administration Talk about iraq in the iran sphere of influence. It is a good thing were talking about the level of iranian influence in iraq now so we can remove iraq, or help remove iraq from that sphere of influence. Not the United States, but by helping the iraqis doing it and they are doing it with their lives. Thank you. I will open it up for discussion and for questions from the audience. You know how that works. Please tell us who you are. Wait for the microphone to get to you in keep it to a short comment in question. Thank you for hosting these. Thank you for hosting these. As you know, there are attempts in iraq now, demanding the reduce of Kurdistan Regional governments role and demanding an amendment to the constitution. Just one question now, they do believe there is a kind of agenda that is been playing political games . But to that extent, it is related to the demands of iraq. Thank you very much. I have heard some concerns out of kurdistan about what happens if parliament is dismantled, and how kurdistan will lose influence. I think that is the cost of freedom, the cost of liberation, the cost of liberating iraq from iran. If you dismantle parliament, you get rid of the current Iraqi Government and get rid of the laws. That would hurt the rest of iraq. Tois a difficult situation be in. You want them to maintain their position they fought hard for in this last government. It is the challenge of getting ministries. Like everyone has said, the government can simply wait it out. The message could resonate with government officials. This is the cost of liberation. It is a different situation. I see no reason why any change of regime should adversely affect the kurds in the constitution. I really dont see why the kurds are worried. There might be changed in the constitution they dont like and the kurds could object, but there is no obvious reason why improving the system should have an adverse impact on the kurds. No reason i could see. I just have a historical rule if it is possible for something to go wrong, it will go wrong for the kurds. That is my historical rule. When you ask a question, i would urge you to directed to a panel or panelist in particular, if you could. I am from austin, texas. This question is for michael but anyone could jump in. If these protests continue, could you foresee a situation where iran would dedicate more conventional or unconventional forces to put down those protests . What we are seeing now is it is primarily the ministry of interior that are tied to iran. I think they are getting their offices burned out, getting beat up on video. Iraqis are not afraid to beat up captured militia fighters and snipers and execute them, that is where the violence can take the long road and help the government when they say this individual executed this militia leader in the back of an ambulance, but that is what happens when your government will not stand in to protect you. I think we have already seen them move into iraq and we have seen iraqi militias put down protesters in iran. I keep hearing i have not been able to verify, but i have heard of multiple sources that of militias in syria moved into iraq and militias in syria moved into iran. These are Afghan Militia men paid by the secret force that receive military training and use it in syria and iraq and other places. The more the militias are involved in killing protesters, the more it will benefit the protesters, the more it will benefit the narrative that iran is responsible for these types of things. We need not confuse Iraqi Security forces when it comes to the ministry of interior forces. Counterterrorism forces should not be used to go against protesters. These are the things we just need to highlight. We have americans on the ground noticing any time an iraqi general hints at being able to take out militias, that general gets moved out of position, goes away. That officer goes away and that is something we need to keep an eye on. Obviously the iranians have a great deal of presence inside iraq. I am skeptical they try to replicate the kind of force structure they have in, say, syria. I dont think that would play well in iraq. I think they have to be conscious of local sentiment and the possibility of severe backlash. That is not to say they wont continue to build bases. I think they are Building Bases and that is not going to stop. I suspect he is wise enough to know his bad arabic can only go so far. Actually, i am with the media network, a kurdish news outlet i have two questions. There was this question of the federalism of the provinces. Decentralizing iraq along geographical lines every province has its own Authority Like you have states in america. Why hasnt that been talked about . Dont you see that could be a good solution for the problems in iraq today . And my second question is about mike pences recent visit to iraq. Was it good he did not go to baghdad to meet facetoface with the Prime Minister . Thanks. , the problems we have in iraq did not arise because we did not have regions. They arose because we have a corrupt Political Class that is in cahoots with each other and they want to pillage the country and they simply wont give up power. Money and power is closely intertwined. And this is not only true of the Political Parties who exercise power in baghdad for the government in provinces. The governments in the provinces are no less corrupt and powerhungry and unwilling to relinquish. For example, the demands for a region over the last several years, it has always been if we had our own region, we would not be so poor, we would not be so deprived, we would not be like the kurdish region. That is utter nonsense. The provisional governments have been equally venal, equally uninterested in delivering services. Basra itself has received billions of dollars to for reconstruction. They have been given authorities, they have not done anything. The problem, really, is not a question whether there are regions or decentralization, it is a question of a political system that is not there to serve anyone but those who are not in power. I think we should really begin to think very carefully about this whole issue of how to devolve authority while maintaining a certain level of accountability on the provinces. It doesnt exist in a kurdish region. I am not declaring any secrets when i say there is discontent in the kurdish region again also about corruption, about the fact the Political Class lines its own pocket before it goes into before the money goes into services and reconstruction and so on. Regionalism is not the answer. It is reform you really want. The significant of pences visit, i think it sends a message. Right now, it is resonating inside the white house, at least the counter Isis Coalition was saying this basically rubs france, germany, and england, now is not the time to legitimize the Iraqi Government, it is time to support the protesters. How do you do that . We dont know. This trip to iraq where the Vice President visits american soldiers, it sends a message. It could be accidental, but the best thing about working in the middle east, whether it is true or not, if iraqis believe it, you have to deal with it. I love perception. In this case, it works in our favor, in libertys favor. A lot of iraqis and where you stand determines your perspective. A lot of iraqis say Vice President pence came to iraq, it is disrespectful of all iraqis for the Vice President not to go to baghdad. Have we heard this . I have. You have to also step over and turn around and look at the same event with different eyes. It is not a blackandwhite case, there are different ways of looking at it and some people say this is not disrespecting the government, this is disrespecting iraqis and it has to be very, very careful. I am hearing the opposite of that. There are rosecolored glasses. I am sure you are hearing iraqis on both sides. Visiting baghdad would have sent the wrong message to the protesters, but this is the Vice President. I have not heard the back channels yet. It sounds like it was an accidental success. It is a very tricky situation. Right, right. I run my own Consultancy Firm and i recently moved to d. C. You touched on the idea of having the International Focus on iraq to see what is happening. Over the past two days, iraqi banned media from what i see, i know the u. S. Government is not interested in iraq, they are busy with impeachments and Everything Else and it is unfortunate for iraqis, this happening at this time because there is not enough light being put on iraq to see what has been happening. You may not have the answer, but how do we try to get congress or the u. S. Government to shed more light on what is happening in iraq . I know for a fact some iraqi born european members of parliament have been taking some real cases, including the recent i dont know if you heard about the defense minister to the European Parliament to debate what has been happening in iraq. Unfortunately, i have not seen any of that happening in the u. S. Do you have any idea how we can push that forward to the Governmental Organization within this country . Not from a political point of view, but the ethical side, people have been dying, 400 plus 400,000 plus injured. How can we take that forward . Can you imagine a democratic president ial candidate attacking donald trump and saying you arent doing enough in iraq . That would be powerful if that happened. I dont even know if it would be effective, i could see Donald Trumps response would not be helpful. I dont think it would have any impact domestically. You raise a good point. Congress occasionally comes up with nonbinding resolutions and these nonbinding resolutions dont require any action by the u. S. Government, but they express a symptom. I think a nonbinding resolution expressing condemning and it has to be on human rights grounds condemning the violations of human rights in iraq. This is perpetrated by unknown forces who are likely associated with the isf. I think it doesnt have an impact in the u. S. , but it has a good impact inside iraq. If we are talking about the u. S. Doing things that are cautious and can give moral support to people inside iraq, that could be one of them. If we are talking about the u. S. To doing things that are cautious and can give moral support to people inside iraq, that could be one of them. If that is a conceivable scenario, and i am not sure it is. That only happens if you bring up the iran. The iran angle is the key angle to bring up to actually galvanize efficient support in congress to have any type of rhetorical effect, otherwise, if you are just talking about human rights, you can talk all day. The lahey law and the the minitski act can be used. There is human rights violations, suppression of the press. Minitski would deal with the press. The lahey law would deal with the u. S. If you want to go after donald trump, go after him here. Why are you arming groups loyal to iran . Use a disfavor campaign. There are tools we can use here. Global minitski and the lahey law. Dir. Karam we have time for one more. Mr. Pregent more questions, or i will just talk. Im just kidding. Dir. Alrahim i would like to add something. I know the attention of the u. S. Is what is it called . Bandwidth. It is limited under the best of circumstances and even more so right now because of what is going on in washington. We talked about what happened in a years time. One thing i did not mention is my greatest fear by the way in a years time the protesters will have learned their lessons and will have armed themselves. What we will have is a war in baghdad in the south. Between the militias and the protesters. It is a dangerous situation for the u. S. Because remember, the south is where the oil is. I know we do not import oil anymore, but we still have an interest in the oil market being stable, oil flowing, and so on. There is a potentially dangerous situation that could materialize in a years time. The other worst Case Scenario is if violence is intensified right now, militias will push for martial law, the establishment of a state of emergency, and a rule by fiat and decree ordered by you know who. There are consequences for the u. S. Not paying any attention. I think there are good reasons where the u. S. Should look at iraq as iraq. Civil war happens when the government oppresses the people, takes oil. That Armed Conflict that you talk about a year from now it is possible. That will happen based on inaction by the International Community, based on bad actions by the United States. This is an important moment right now in iraq. The military is the most dangerous course of action, but when the most dangerous course of action turns into the most likely course of action, we will have what you are talking about. If not next year, the year after. We need to get to a place when 2022 comes around, we have identified parties that are not a part of traditional organizations. That is the opportunity here. To actually have the International Community when i say we i mean the International Community people who should care about iraq actually provide momentum for these iraqis who once there own voice and are tired of being tied to Political Parties that favor tehran over iraq. Dir. Karam it feels like we are walking a tight rope. On the other hand, i hear messages that are mixed in some ways, because we are talking about cautious intervention. We are talking about treating iraq as its own case study. Were talking about what is possible and what is not with an inclination toward the not possible. At the same time, we are saying in a year from now, if we do not do anything, there will be Armed Conflict in iraq. The question is, how do we and sorry, rend, to come back to your scenario which is basically more of the same with some tweaks where are we left . Are we left with the best of worst worlds so speak . Or the risk of conflict . I am just being provocative. What are the other options . I think the reason we all have different views is because we havent seen a spotlight on this. If we put a light on what is going on in iraq, we will have opportunities, we will see solutions. It is hard to see solutions in the dark. I think the issue is whether you can cantonize oil in iraq. If you can cantonize Oil Production in iraq, you can tolerate a great deal of mayhem in iraq. Mr. Pregent its good for us, but not good for iraqis. Mr. Gerecht no its terrible for iraqis. We have ceded much of iraq to iran. We are not going to fight over the issue in syria. Israelis may fight with the iranians, but the United States is not really going to do that. Oil is a blessing and a curse. It is a more interesting issue in iraq. It is not clear to me maybe will tolerate highlevels of mayhem in iraq and Oil Production will be ok. I think that is a big question. Dir. Alrahim i think if you have been following the news, you have not followed the disruption of the oil industry in basra in the last month. I am saying the oil industry is quite remarkable in the way they can repair themselves. There is so much money involved. If it breaks down, that will bring a spotlight. That spotlight may not be helpful for all of iraq, but it will bring a spotlight to iraq. If we discover that, no, we need to insulate the bloody thing, i think the disinterest in iraq will remain in the u. S. And europe. Mr. Pregent that is the reason for the protests. That is why iraqis are protesting. I will leave it at that. Dir. Karam thank you for our panelists, hudson, and our cspan audience. [captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy. Visit ncicap. Org] [captions Copyright National cable satellite corp. 2019] with news andday policy issues that impact you. 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